01 Climate Data Information and Modeling George Nasr 02jul1

George J. Nasr, Dr. Eng.
-
Universit Libanaise - Facult de Gnie
Climate Change:
Data, Information and Modeling

The Earth System
Natural Climate Variability
Climate Change
Climate Modeling
Outline
1
z Introduction: The Earth System
z Radiation, energy, and climate
z Land Surface & Surface Energy Budget
z Clouds, Convection, & Hydrologic Cycle
z Atmospheric Circulation
z The Oceans and climate
Lebanese University Faculty of Engineering
z Natural Climate Variability

z Climate Change & Climate Modeling
TrainingWorkshoponClimateChangefor
Climate Data, Information, Modeling Iraq,48July2010,Amman July 2, 2010 2
Weather / Climate
1 z Weather: Short time scales (Day)
Determined by Atmospheric statistics:
z Temperature, Precipitation, Wind velocity,
z Climate: big picture concept,

z Average weather over 30 years
REF: GDFL; Simulation of Early 20th Century Global Warming
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/early-20th-century-global-warming
1
The Earth System
1
Climate
Computer Models
Atmosphere
Biosphere Humans

Scenarios
Hydrosphere Lithosphere
Outline
2
z The Land Surface & Surface Energy Budget

2.1
Simple Model: 0-
0-D
(1 a)Sr2 = 4r2T4
S = solar constant = 1367 W/m2
a = Earth's average albedo = 0.3
r = Earth's radius= 6.371106 m
= 3.14159
= Stefan-Boltzmann constant = 5.6710-8

J/K4m2s
= effective emissivity of earth = 0.612

Computed Ts = -18 C : Observed Ts = 15 C

REF: Ahrens, C. D; (2001): Essentials of Meteorology: An Invitation to the Atmosphere.
CNES: http://ceos.cnes.fr:8100/cdrom-98/ceos1/science/dg/dg9.htm
2
Simple Model: 0-
0-D
Ignores:
Vertical structure
z The greenhouse effect
Energy storage and transport

z The general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans
Vertical Structure
Ozone absorption
z Atmosphere:
Very thin
Most of it is close to the ground
z Amman: about 15% of the
atmosphere is below us
z Changes in atmospheric
temperature with height:

Greenhouse Effect
why Ts > -18 C
Heat fluxes
Horizontal Structure
z In the tropics: energy accumulates

z Near the poles: energy is lost
Thermal radiation to outer space

z The atmosphere and the oceans:
Transport energy from where it accumulates to where it
can be lost
3
Greenhouse effect
z S (1)/4
thermal radiation
Te4
can escape to sunlight goes
space only from all the way down
the emission level and heats surface
(~6 km high) Te
temp
temperature decreases with height Ts
lapse rate is controlled by thermodynamics
and turbulent heat transport
Greenhouse Effect
Constituent Fraction (%)
Nitrogen (N2) 78.08

Oxygen (O2) 20.95
Argon (Ar) 0.93
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 0.038

Methane (CH4) 0.0002
Ozone (O3) 0.00001
Water vapor (H2O) 0 5 (variable!!)
only these interact

with thermal radiation

Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
(Te T)4
z S (1)/4
Te4
increased sunlight goes
greenhouse all the way down
gases cause ze and heats surface
emission level Te
to rise, throwing
planet out of
balance
temperature
increases to re-establish
equilibrium
temp
Ts Ts+ T
4
Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
z Carbon dioxide: CO2
Input: plant decay,
exhalation, fossil fuels,
deforestation.
Output: photosynthesis, CO2
dissolves in the ocean
Greenhouse gas, steadily
increases with time.
Ozone: O3
z
O3 in the stratosphere (25 km)
shields the UV light;
At the ground level it results in
photochemical smog.
z Dust, aerosols and pollutants: also can
have a greenhouse effect
Surface Net SW Radiation

Surface Net LW Radiation

5
Feedbacks
z Part of a systems output is returned as input,

and further affects the systems performance.
z Negative Cooling
Sun
Positive
z
Clouds
Warming
Earth
Evaporation
z Gas molecules in the atmosphere

interact with photons
z Some molecules = interact much

more with photons than others
Outline
3

6
Properties of Soils
minerals organics water ice air
Cs = s cs fs + c cc fc + w cw fw + i ci fi + a ca fa
heat
capacity density volume
of soil fraction
heat
capacity
Surface Relative Humidity (%)

Surface Albedos
Snow and ice brightest
Deserts, dry soil, and

dry grass are very
bright
Forests are dark
Coniferous (cone-
bearing) needleleaf
trees are darkest

7
Ocean Surface Albedo
Highly dependent on
solar zenith angle
Clouds scatter incoming

light so that it comes
from many directions
Under overcast skies, all

zenith angles are

represented
Land-
Land-Surface Albedo
Strong wavelength
dependence over vegetated
land
Plants eat visible

wavelengths, reflect
strongly in near-IR
Total albedo is a weighted

mean over wavelengths

Also depends on geometry

complex canopies can trap
photons so that albedo is less
than for a single leaf
Outline
4

8
Medium Range Weather
Prediction (ECMWF)
Phase Changes
Groundwater
9
Atmospheric Water
Precipitation
July
January
Outline
5

10
Forces that Move the Air
z Gravitational force:
Directed downward , normal to the earth
Equal to the mass of the air times the gravitational
acceleration
z Pressure gradient force

F(pressure difference; air density)
z Coriolis Force
z Centrifugal Force
Coriolis Effect
Winds:
Go around low pressure area,
not across the isobars.
Result from the Earth's

rotation: Coriolis Effect
Always acts at right angles to

the direction of motion.
Cyclone / Anticyclone
Misconception: In the southern hemisphere the water going down the plug-
hole spins in the opposite direction
11
Hadley Cell
Three-Cell Model:
Clouds & Surface Temperature

The Jet Stream

12
Outline
6
z Clouds, Convection, and the Hydrologic Cycle

ENSO
Normal conditions:
Huge accumulation
of deep warm water
in W. Pacific
El Nino: Relaxation of
Trade Wind forcing
allows warm water

to flow eastward
13
ENSO and the Arab Region
Decreased Rainfall: Sept (-) to May (+)
Summer Rainy Season Spring

Outline
7

Temperature & CO2

7
42 Climate Data, Information, Modeling July 2, 2010
Iraq,48July2010,Amman 42
14
Outline
8

Modeling the Earth System

z Weather: Short time scales (Day)
Determined by Atmospheric statistics:
z Temperature, Precipitation, Wind velocity,
z Climate: big picture concept,

z Average weather over 30 years
"weather is an initial value problem, whereas climate is a

boundary-value problem.
15
Perfectly insulated conducting rod of metal:

Heated at one end cooled at the other
The time rate of change of temperature at any point

in the bar can be described by:
T T
C = k
t x x
where C is the heat capacity, and k is the thermal

conductivity of the metal

T T
C = k
t x x
z Describe the changing temperatures along the bar:
Formal separation of variables
By numerical modeling
z Either predicts the temperature as a function of x and t,

the position along the bar and the elapsed time
z Temperature forecast at each position, Given:

Boundary conditions (temperatures or heat fluxes at each end

of the bar),
Initial conditions (temperature at every position at t=0)
z We FIX the temperature at each end of the bar to say

We can easily diagnose the temperatures at every position of the
bar at steady state
So temperature is simply a linear function of position on the bar
(heat flux is constant)
z We did it by setting boundary conditions:

Climate:
z Determined by the properties of the Earth system itself
z An envelope of possibilities within which the weather
Weather:
z depends on the evolution of the system from one moment to the next,
z bounces around within this envelope of possibilities
Climate is what you expect
weather is what you July
get!
Climate Data, Information, Modeling Iraq,48July2010,Amman 2, 2010 48
16
Predictability
z Small Scale:
Weather Forecasting:
z Limited by the properties of the atmosphere itself,
Choatic System with many different "equilibrium points"
z We can never know all about the properties,
z Predictability Times:
Boundary-layer eddy: 10 minutes
z
z Cumulonimbus clouds: 1 hour
z Mid-latitude cyclone: 3 days
z Big standing waves: 10 days

z El Nio-La Nia (ENSO): 100 days
z Deep ocean circulation: 50 years(?)
Climate Modeling
z Weather and ocean circulation:
Reasonably well-known deterministic equations
z Governing equations of climate:

In general not known
z Climate modeling:
Brute force activity: Running weather
forecast models
z For a very long time

z boundary conditions: Perturbed or slowly changing
3.1
Boundaries
z RCMs rely on input from GCMs
z GCMs may understate some key problems:

No Surprises in ITCZ
Impact of some parameters may accelerate
ENSO-ITCZ modeling
Greenland:
Sea Level Rise
Aerosols:
Cloud Formation
ENSO:
Shift in ITCZ: Precipitation
Precipitation
Antarctic Glaciers:
Sea Level Rise
17
3.4
Nested
Nested Computer Models
Progressive Scaling down:
z Climate analysis from global to

regional to micro-scales
z Generate hourly, high-resolution

surface fields (Temperature,
wind speed...)
Ecosystems
Groundwater
Surface Water
Local / Community
REF: Nested-Grid model analyses by Colorado State University:

http://traverse.npolar.no/spatial-extents/modeling/ TrainingWorkshoponClimateChangefor
3.4
Downscaling to RCM
GCM: HadCM3Q0 RCM: HadRM3P

Example:
PRECIS RCM: HadRM3P
20th January, 1990

REF: Hadjinicolaou, P.; Xoplaki, E.; Lange, M.; Lelieveld, J.; (2009): Vulnerability, Adaptation and Mitigation for UNDP/Lebanon SNC, Sub-Task 1.3: Regional Modeling
to Downscale Global IPCC Scenarios, Scoping Meeting, 18 August 2009.
3.2
The Arab Region: Parameters
z Changing Topography:
Dunes over the large desert areas in Arabia and the Sahara may have a cumulative effect
on surface winds,
Rapid urbanization and increased concentration is modifying local conditions in unique

ways.
z Albedo Variations:
Spread of deforestation and land degradation is modifying surface reflectivity
GCM models may not have needed to factor in Albedo changes over the seasons.
z Desert changes different from Oceans:

Seasonally because of rain
Permanently because of the pollution.
18
3.2
PaThe Arab Region: rameters
z Heat Islands
Impact already documented on local rainfall patterns,
z Water Table depletion:

Decreased the amount of water available for evaporation: impact on the
radiation cascade
z Population movement:
Land pattern uses,

Heat Islands,
Land degradation
3.2
The Arab Region: Parameters
z Evaporation / Cloud Formation:

Small-scale
z Thunderstorms / Squall Lines,

Larger scale
z Fronts, precipitation bands,

Regional scale
z Tropical depressions / cyclones

Global scale
Topography plays a role in either generating or catalyzing those

processes, which also interact with one another in a swinging day-
night
Global cycle,
models a pendulum
remain day
very approximate in this respect.
There are still variations among models when investigating cloud formations, particularly
boundary-layer clouds, and to a lesser extent midlevel clouds.
Observations have not yet been able to ascertain which estimates of the climate change cloud
feedbacks are the most reliable
1
Climate Modeling
Precise
Average Inaccurate
Number of Trial Runs
Real Computed
Value Value
Accuracy Precise
Accurate
Value
Imprecise
Precision Accurate
No Inbreeding:
All models should be developed independently
19

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George J. Nasr, Dr. Eng.

Data, Information and Modeling

z Natural Climate Variability

z Climate: big picture concept,

z Natural Climate Variability

S = solar constant = 1367 W/m2

a = Earth's average albedo = 0.3

r = Earth's radius= 6.371106 m

= Stefan-Boltzmann constant = 5.6710-8

= effective emissivity of earth = 0.612

Computed Ts = -18 C : Observed Ts = 15 C

Energy storage and transport

temperature with height:

z In the tropics: energy accumulates

Thermal radiation to outer space

Nitrogen (N2) 78.08

Carbon dioxide (CO2) 0.038

only these interact

with thermal radiation

Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

Surface Net SW Radiation

Surface Net LW Radiation

z Part of a systems output is returned as input,

z Gas molecules in the atmosphere

z Some molecules = interact much

z Natural Climate Variability

Surface Relative Humidity (%)

Deserts, dry soil, and

Forests are dark

trees are darkest

Clouds scatter incoming

Under overcast skies, all

zenith angles are

Plants eat visible

Total albedo is a weighted

mean over wavelengths

Also depends on geometry

z Natural Climate Variability

z Natural Climate Variability

z Pressure gradient force

Result from the Earth's

Always acts at right angles to

Clouds & Surface Temperature

The Jet Stream

z Natural Climate Variability

allows warm water

Decreased Rainfall: Sept (-) to May (+)

Summer Rainy Season Spring

z Natural Climate Variability

Temperature & CO2

z Natural Climate Variability

Modeling the Earth System

z Climate: big picture concept,

"weather is an initial value problem, whereas climate is a

Perfectly insulated conducting rod of metal:

The time rate of change of temperature at any point

where C is the heat capacity, and k is the thermal

Modeling the Earth System

z Either predicts the temperature as a function of x and t,

the position along the bar and the elapsed time

z Temperature forecast at each position, Given:

Boundary conditions (temperatures or heat fluxes at each end

Modeling the Earth System