Intelligence and World Affairs 1

The Role of The Intelligence Community in World Affairs

Brandon M Thomas

Global Studies and World Languages Academy

Intelligence and World Affairs 2

Abstract

The Intelligence Community has a crucial role in international relations as easily

recognized throughout history. All the Intelligence Agencies that make up the Intelligence

Community are to collect, analyze and share intelligence to aid in the policymaking process.

However, Intelligence Agencies often act on the intelligence they ascertain sometimes causing

controversy with their operations. Despite the seemingly overwhelming amount of controversial

operations conducted by intelligence agencies, it cannot be denied that the influence held by

Intelligence Agencies across the globe help to guide major events from coups and revolutions, to

wars and their preventions. This research is a study into the history that provides a foundation for

the importance of intelligence in modern times as well as the impact of technology and the

evolution of warfare on the development of intelligence agencies and their future applications in

cyber conflict prevention. With the growing dependence on technology all parts of the world are

at risk to hacking and intelligence agencies will play a crucial role in preventing future cyber-

terrorist attacks.
Intelligence and World Affairs 3

Table of Contents

Contents

Abstract................................................................................................................................2

Table of Contents.................................................................................................................3

The Role of The Intelligence Community in World Affairs................................................4

Limitations...........................................................................................................................6

Lack of Experience..........................................................................................................6

Time Constraint...............................................................................................................6

Personal Bias...................................................................................................................6

Resources.........................................................................................................................7

Literature Review................................................................................................................8

Intelligence throughout History.......................................................................................8

Modern Examples of the Applications of Intelligence Agencies.....................................8

Future Applications of the Intelligence Community.......................................................9

Discussion..........................................................................................................................11

History of the importance of Intelligence......................................................................11

Modern Intelligence Agencies.......................................................................................13

Intelligence on World Affairs.........................................................................................15

Future of Applications of Intelligence Agencies...........................................................16

Conclusion.........................................................................................................................19
Intelligence and World Affairs 4

Bibliography......................................................................................................................20

The Role of The Intelligence Community in World Affairs

Conflict is an inevitable part of society, war has been around since history had been first

recorded. Whether it be a rebellion uprising against an oppressor or tensions over the drawing of

a border, conflict is an inherent part of history. Wars, however, are not fought blindly. There is

crucial information used to carefully formulate plans that aid in the effective use of force towards

obtaining a victory. This is where Intelligence agencies derive their purpose.

In this context intelligence is defined as information collected and analyzed by

professionals with the intended purpose of being used to aid in the decision making of officials.

(Kupcikas, 2013). intelligence agencies thrive on the principal that there is more to gain from

working smarter rather than harder. Agencies draw on a variety of methods to most efficiently

and thoroughly analyze and ascertain intelligence. With such a straightforward and obviously

beneficial purpose questions of the ethics of intelligence agencies seem without cause. However,

when one delves into the past and even ongoing actions of agencies they are to find nothing but

secrets, lies manipulations and overall controversies that are less than justifiable.

Intelligence agencies are shrouded in negative mysteries and controversies that can

challenge the morals of the most logical and understanding of people. In a world where direct

conflict has become too much of an inconvenience to carry out, the power of intelligence

agencies has grown exponentially. Agencies clandestine operations have grown from the early

days of espionage, the stealing of secrets, to include: kidnapping, torture, the drug trade,

assassinations, and shadow wars.

Intelligence and World Affairs 5

The Central Intelligence Agency is shrouded by controversies such as accusations of

involvement in the drug trade of south America, aiding the overthrowing of several

democratically elected officials including Guatemalan President Arbenz who was forced from

power for going against the interest of private American based company (Calederon, 2016), and

the torturing of people of interest despite international regulations advocating against it(source).

GRU, a Russian intelligence agency, actively monitors American leaders and possibly maintains

an arsenal of suitcase bombs, very small and portable nuclear weapons, for the sake of these

leaders assassination. Such controversial activities have created a cloud that makes it

increasingly difficult to see the importance of such agencies. These agencies provide crucial

intelligence in times of war and carry out covert operations that often keeps war at bay. So,

despite their use of sometimes controversial clandestine operations, Intelligence agencies have

played a crucial part in conflicts throughout the modern era of history with growing applications

and importance in future conflicts due to advancements in technology.

Intelligence and World Affairs 6

Limitations

Lack of Experience

The author is a high school student enrolled in a rigorous academic program with a

curriculum with a heavy focus on international affairs, world cultures, as well as foreign

language, however, said academic program does not offer any knowledge or insight into the

Intelligence community. The Author has no experience in the field of collecting intelligence,

analyzing intelligence, or acting on intelligence. With no personal connections with anyone in

the Intelligence Community, the author also lacks crucial insight into the field, forcing a reliance

on non-primary sources that may incorporate bias and or censorship.

Time Constraint

The time allotted restricted the author from conducting thorough research with a diverse

set of resources. Many of the resources used simply skimmed the surface of a topic and due to a

lack of time said topics would go mal-researched which could have allowed for misunderstood

context which would have resulted in poorly presented information.

Personal Bias

The author is an American with no experience outside of the United States. This

perspective may have influenced his opinion of the controversial actions of his countries

intelligence agencies. The author also has a strong interest in the intelligence community derived

from the desire for a future career in Intelligence, specifically the CIA, possibly distorting the

authors ability to judge the nature and ethics of operations conducted by Intelligence Agencies.
Intelligence and World Affairs 7

Resources

Due to the secretive nature and sensitive operations carried out by Intelligence Agencies,

the information collected possibly could have been misconstrued for the sake of protecting

secrets. Also, the author lacked connections and insight into the Intelligence Community and

therefore had to rely heavily on non-primary sources allowing for bias and misinformation to be

incorporated while conducting research.

Intelligence and World Affairs 8

Literature Review

Intelligence throughout History

To provide a basis for the need of Intelligence it was essential to illustrate the history

form which the field of intelligence work developed. MilitaryHistoryNow.com provides

information used to reiterate that conflict has been around since the earliest of

civilizations(First,2015).

Lerner explains the connection between progression of history and the development of

espionage and the growing importance of intelligence. With a multitude of examples that spans

many regions and many time periods Lerner effectively displays the development of intelligence

into a highly specialized, technical field [that is far] from the battlefield and political intrigue of

the ancient world.(Advameg, 2016).

Infoplease.com is another source to once again state the historical necessity of

intelligence to be used emphasize the importance of intelligence agencies and their roles in the

modern era. With the use of historical example infoplease.com states how The importance of

espionage in military affairs has been recognized since the beginning of recorded history.

Infoplease.com continues on to use examples such as how The Egyptians had a well-developed

secret service, and [that] spying and subversion are mentioned in the Iliad and in the Bible. This

provides the ancient application of Intelligence and Espionage (Networks, 2000).

Modern Examples of the Applications of Intelligence Agencies.

West provides insight into operations carried out in modern times as well as illustrates the

role and importance of intelligence agencies. According to West A modern and efficient security

and intelligence structure is now an essential component of any country seeking to survive the
Intelligence and World Affairs 9

threats posed by territorial claims from aggressive neighbors, international terrorism, or home-

grown subversion. Failure to collect, collate, and distribute intelligence efficiently gives an

opportunity to an adversary. West reiterates claims to the necessity of Intelligence agencies by

providing examples of Agencies covert tactics conducted throughout the modern era. (West,

2006)

Kemen provides another example of the influence intelligence agencies possess. Kemen

writes about the slam-dunk intelligence that provided the basis for the Bush Administrations

invasion of Iraq in 2003. Kemen is writing a review on a book written by Morell who is

defending the former CIA director that offered President Bush the inaccurate intelligence,

swearing Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, which led to the Iraq War (Kamen,

2015). On the opposite end of the spectrum, Goldberg writes about an interview with Barrack

Obama and the intelligence that led him to call off a strike on the Assad regime that was to take

place because of his use of chemical weapons in 2013. President Obama was overwhelmed with

uncertainty and doubt over a lack of intelligence on the situation and when James Clapper, chief

of the US intelligence community, said the intelligence on Syria and its use of sarin gas was not

a slam dunk, referencing the inaccurate information that led to the Iraq war only a decade prior

(Goldberg, 2016 ).

Future Applications of the Intelligence Community

The future application of intelligence plays an essential role in providing justification for

Intelligence Agencies in the present. In order fully explain the role of intelligence agencies in the

future it is essential to explain the advancements in technology and how they have changed how

conflicts are fought. Szoldra explains how new technologies have changed the face of war by

claiming that Battles in the next world war will be fought in the air, on the ground, and online.
Intelligence and World Affairs 10

Szoldra provides modern and recent examples of hacking used in warfare and hints at the future

application of cyberspace in warfare (Szoldra, 2016).

Diamond then offers another current example of the future role of intelligence agencies.

Diamond writes about the campaign carried out by Russian hackers to aid in a victory for Trump

in the 2016 election. The intelligent community found evidence of Russian hacking and

manipulation in the 2016 election. Russian Hackers campaigned against presidential Nominee

Clinton by hacking and releasing damaging emails and spreading fake news reports to hurt her

campaign. This breech of the integrity of the US 2016 Presidential election further illustrates the

need for an intelligence agency to protect against foreign hackers (Diamond, 2016)

In Haseltines review of Berkowitzs book The New Face of War he explains the key

talking points of Berkowitz as well as offer some of his own predictions pertaining to the future

of warfare. According to Haseltine, Information technology has changed warfare not by degree,

but in kind, so that victory will increasingly go to combatants who maneuver bits faster than their

adversaries. He also offers advice to intelligence agencies by stating that intelligence services

will need an increasing proportion of tech-savvy talent to track, target, and defend against

adversaries IT capabilities. Overall Haseltine and Berkowitz recognize the significant role

intelligence agencies will play in the future as technologies continue to advance and that

traditional warfare such as nuclear weaponry and, though will not be replaced entirely, will

become increasingly irrelevant as The ability to collect, communicate, process, and protect

information is the most important factor defining military power (Haseltine, 2008).
Intelligence and World Affairs 11

Discussion

History of the importance of Intelligence

The importance of Intelligence is undeniable throughout history, across cultures, no

matter the conflict, in times of war, and in times of peace, intelligence has been the guiding force

of the actions that seek to benefit ones loyalties whether those loyalties lie with a country, an

ideology or, the individual themselves. Espionage can be dated back to the time of the Iliad and

the bible (Networks, 2000). Moses deployed spies to Go through the Negev and then into the

mountain region. [To] See what the land [was] like and whether the people living there [were]

strong or weak, few or many. He had his spies look for key intelligence such as: Is the land

they live in good or bad? Do their cities have walls around them or not? Is the soil rich or poor?

Does the land have trees or not? (Numbers 12). Pharaohs of ancient Egypt would use spies to

ferret-out disloyal subjects or to locate tribes to be conquered and enslaved for the benefit of

their regimes. As time progressed and societies evolved as did the application of intelligence

agents. Ancient Greek city-states used would use intelligence networks to spy on neighboring

city-states to provide crucial intelligence on their rivals military strength and their strategies of

defense all while developing one of the most essential components of a successful and efficient

intelligence network, an effective means of communication. The complexity and efficiency of

Ancient Greek intelligence communications network remained unparalleled until the modern era

of intelligence (Advameg, 2016).

With the progression of history methods of governing evolved and large-nation states

began to rise and were then further validated with the signing of the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648

which ended the thirty-year war and granted nations their sovereignty (Bibowen, 2014). With the

rise of these large nation-states Western Europe [started] to function as an integrated political
Intelligence and World Affairs 12

system, whereby one state's acts affected all the other states and triggered appropriate reactions

(Flow, 2016). Intelligence networks were used to maintain diplomatic relations between nations

through Systems of couriers, translators, and royal messengers [who] carried diplomatic

messages between monarchs or feudal lords. These diplomatic relations, however, did not

persevere with the rise of empires. With each empire competing in Industrialization, economic

and territorial expansion, the need for intelligence to present advantageous ways for empires

remain competitive in the changing world was clear (Advameg, 2016). As the world developed,

technology advanced and with it so did the tactics and applications of intelligence networks.

Intelligence networks represent the most resourceful and adaptable group of individuals that the

world has to offer. With each introduction of new technology during the industrial revolution

came a new way to gain an advantage. Intelligence Agencies capitalized on the growing

dependence on the telegraph as a means for communications by developing methods to intercept,

often called wiretapping, communications sent via telegraph (Stop, 2016). An infamous example

of wiretapping is the Zimmerman telegram where British intelligence intercepted and deciphered

a message sent from Germany asking Mexico to align with the efforts of Germany and in return

certain U.S. territory would be given to Mexico. The Zimmerman telegram sways public opinion

on the war and in combination with several other German offenses effectively pulls the United

States into the first world war in 1917 (Childress, 1981). Wiretapping is only one of many

adaptation and advancements that Intelligence agencies used to manipulate new technologies to

their advantage. With the creation and proliferation of the locomotive spies saw a way to make a

would be advantage a disadvantage to their enemies. The American civil war saw both sides,

Confederate and Union, using spies for covert sabotage operations to gain an advantage in the
Intelligence and World Affairs 13

war. The union would attempt to destroy crucial railroad tracks and misdirecting supply trains to

effectively hinder the progress of the Confederates (Longarce, 1997).

The advancement of technology offers new liabilities and weaknesses for spies to

manipulate to provide the most advantages possible. The growing scope of the role of

intelligence caused by the many advancements in technology and the overall evolution of politics

demanded a more modern and centralized organization to efficiently collect, communicate, and

act on intelligence. This centralized organization was found in the form of agencies and bureaus

specifically designed to operate in the shadows to collect, analyze, and sometimes act on

intelligence. It was during World War II in which modern intelligence agencies began to develop

into the organizations still seen presently. World War II provided a unique intelligence

environment for innovation, with some of the brightest intellects drafted into opposing security

and espionage organizations. This was the era of significant developments and refinements in the

fields of microdot technology, aerial reconnaissance, clandestine photography, signals

interception, cryptography, and strategic deception (West, 2006).

Modern Intelligence Agencies.

World War II and the following cold war era defined intelligence agencies as known

today. Prior to the Second World War there were few intelligence agencies that conducted

international espionage. The Secret Intelligent Service, founded by the U.K. in 1909 as the Secret

Service Bureau, was amongst the first modern intelligence agencies (Our, 2016). At the start of

the WWII the United States had no Intelligence Agency to conduct foreign clandestine

operations. It was not until 1942 with the creation of the Office of Strategic Service, predecessor

to the Central Intelligence Agency, that the US had an efficient means of centralized intelligence.

[The] OSS began to build a world-wide clandestine capability, that allowed the US to
Intelligence and World Affairs 14

coordinate clandestine operations abroad, such as seen in North French Africa with Operation

TORCH when the OSS, which at the time was called COI, sent a dozen officers to work as

"vice consuls" in several North African ports, where they established networks and acquired

information to guide the Allied landings further assisting war efforts by provide intelligence

essential to the Allies victories (What, 2008). With World War II over many of the agencies

created for the war effort were dismantled and shut down, including the OSS. Though, by

signing of the National Security Act of 1947, President Truman establish the Central Intelligence

Agency to correlate and evaluate intelligence relating to the national security, and provide for

the appropriate dissemination of such intelligence within the Government (National Security Act

of 1947)

The CIA has seen multiple successes since its creation in 1947, though sometimes

controversial. Amongst the controversial operations include Operation PBSUCCESS. The

controversy arises in the motives behind the CIAs involvement. The operation consists of

over throwing the democratically elected president of Guatemala, Arbenz. President

Arbenz became a threat, however not directly to the US, but rather to the profits of the

United Fruit Company a US Corporation that was well connected to the Eisenhower

Administration (Doyle, 2016). Prior to President Arbenz, there were corrupt and failing

dictators that allowed the United Fruit Company to take advantage of the impoverished

people of the country. The United Fruit Company gained 42% of Guatemalas land, and

was exempted from paying taxes and import duties. Seventy-seven percent of all Guatemalan

exports went to the United States; and 65% of imports to the country came from the United

States. The United Fruit Company was, essentially, a state within the Guatemalan state. It not

only owned all of Guatemala's banana production and monopolized banana exports, it also
Intelligence and World Affairs 15

owned the country's telephone and telegraph system, and almost all of its railroad track. It can

be easily assumed that the United Fruit Company, being of power and influence, coerced the CIA

to intervene on the democratically elected President Arbenz who proposed reforms that

[redistributed] undeveloped lands held by large property owners to landless farmers which the

United Fruit Company saw as a threat to their power and profits in the region. The company

began a massive anti-communist propaganda effort against Guatemala in the U.S. press. The

Eisenhower administration was also alarmed by the policy direction of the Arbenz government.

Eisenhower did not want to intervene directly in Guatemala, however, to avoid the impression

that the United States would attack a Western Hemisphere ally. Additionally, Eisenhower had

vowed to reduce Cold War military spending. Instead, the United States utilized the newly

created Central Intelligence Agency to launch a covert operation to remove Arbenz. (Calederon,

2016)

Though the motives are debatable the effectiveness of the CIA is clearly illustrated in

Operation PBSUCCESS. President Arbenz suggested communist-like reforms in a period where

communism represent the enemy of the US. The Eisenhower Administration was determined to

maintain relations with Guatemala and President Arbenz was a threat. The CIA removed Arbenz

while keeping the United States seemingly uninvolved. For the time the mission was a success,

despite the seemingly amoral motives the mission succeeded and the US maintained a stable

relationship with Guatemala.

Intelligence on World Affairs

Intelligence has the power to start wars and prevent them. President George W. Bush send

troops to Iraq in 2003 in search of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Bushs decision was

based from the intelligence briefings he would receive. Former CIA Director George Tenet goes
Intelligence and World Affairs 16

as far as to say the intelligence on WMD in Iraq are a slam dunk. With such confidence in the

intelligence, the Bush administration has the confidence needed to justify a war. It is later

revealed, too late to avoid war, that there were never weapons of mass destruction in Iraq,

however, though inaccurate, the intelligence provided to President Bush provided him with the

foundation to take the United States to war (Kamen, 2015). Similarly, intelligence can provide

the foundation to not go to war as well.

With rising tensions with Syria in 2013 President Barrack Obama is faced with a similar

challenge that faced President Bush roughly eleven years prior. President Obama ties the hands

of the United States when he promises to attack the Assad regime if they use chemical weapons

on its own people. When an attack occurs on the Syrian people using chemical weapons Obama

is almost drawn to war, however, given the intelligence he had, he did not believe it was in the

best interest of the US or Syria to attack. James Clapper, Obamas director of National

Intelligence, references the inaccuracy of the intelligence given to Bush that led to the Iraq War

mistake by saying the intelligence on Syrias use of sarin gas, while robust, was not a slam

dunk, This briefing provides President Obama enough doubt and uncertainty in an attack that

he calls off the strike the day before it was to be carried out. Obama avoids a direct war in Syria

and instead manages to use diplomacy to coerce Russia to have the Assad regime in Syria

dispose of their chemical weapon arsenal (Goldberg, 2016).

Future of Applications of Intelligence Agencies

As seen with the progression of history, a new advancement in technology provides a

new liability. This concept is clearly demonstrated by the growth of cyberspace which offer a

new field for Intelligence Agencies to operate within. Cyberspace is the defined simply as the

online world of computer networks and especially the Internet,(merriamwebster.com),

Intelligence and World Affairs 17

however the implications of the importance of cyberspace go far beyond that simple

definition. Cyberspace connects all aspects of our live together in a web of endless

information and as we become more dependent on it the more of a liability it will

become. Technology has allowed for aspects of life once independent of cyberspace

such as communications, economic trends, and even the military to now be overly

dependent on it for the sake of efficiency. However, this efficiency comes at a cost,

there is now a world where an enemy can cripple a nations economy military and cut

off communications all in one attack. [The world has] concentrated all their eggs in one

basket. Intelligence agencies should not, therefore, abandon the hope of severely crippling a

cyber enemy, nor should they assume a cyber enemy could not return the favor (Haseltine,

2008).

Such a threat cannot be ignored and small scale cyber-attacks are happening presently.

The US intelligence community suspects Russian manipulation in the outcome of the 2016

election. The US community provides evidence that the Russian government and their affiliates

successfully manipulated the US presidential election through hacking and releasing damaging

emails, as well as spreading fake news to damage presidential nominee Clinton to assist in a

Trump victory for the Presidency (Diamond, 2016). Future applications of the Intelligence

community will be to prevent breaches such as seen in the 2016 US presidential election as well

as possible larger scale attacks. With the growth of cyberspace, it will become possible for cyber

enemies conduct hacking operations that could cause a blackout on the eastern seaboard,

crippling communications, or hacking the stock market to force a crash crippling the economy, or

a hacking operation that grants access to military weapon systems or the provides the location of

key military troops. In the future, the primary goals of Intelligence Agencies will be to Collect,
Intelligence and World Affairs 18

steal, block, and change information (Szoldra, 2016). These are much like the goals of

intelligence community throughout history, however, it will be more significant than ever before

as the future provides a world stages that is more dependent on intelligence and secrets and less

dependent on ground troops and confrontations.

Intelligence and World Affairs 19

Conclusion

The world is in a constant state of progress and evolution creating a need for an organized

way to process these changes and adapt to new situations. History has shown intelligence, and

its collection, as a playing a crucial role in world affairs from early civilizations to the present.

Agencies provide Intelligence that is carefully analyzed to provide a foundation for

policymaking, they also protect state secrets and conduct covert operations based on intelligence

to manipulate major events. With significant applications in the future, Intelligence Agencies

importance cannot be denied because they are the key for a state maintaining its power and

protecting itself from attacks in a future where a wars battlefield is cyberspace.

Intelligence and World Affairs 20

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