Ice Farm Capital, LLC

MAY 2014
2015 END OF YEAR CHARTNADO
April 2014
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2015 key review
A Tale of Two Years
First half -- Long Biotechs (+35.0%), Long China (+32%)
Second half Short EM and faux DM(+25.5%), Short Commodities
(+22%), long Quality vs Junk (+25%)
Theme for entire year? Vampire FANGs (+44%)
Ice Farm core view was that equity vol was too low, that
faux DMs (Canada) were heading towards recession.
Right, but stumbled in delivering

Theme Outlook
Demographics older, not wiser
Inflation the Phillips Curveball
Economic Outlook Logistic growth limited by supply of labor
Deleveraging a function of demographics
Inequality misspecified, but politically powerful
Why Civilizations Fail real time investment implications for
China, Russia, Middle East and Japan

2016 Ice Farm best ideas

3
Biotechs Healthcare for aging Boomers. Still a favored sector
due to demographics, but cost control becomes important now

4
And as crazy as it seems, Biotechs are now trading below their historical
valuation multiples with significant multiple compression over last year

5
China Equities Coming into 2015 we noted that the idea of a
mania in China equities seemed a bit out of line

Mania

6
China Equities But by May 2015, it had truly morphed into a bubble with
over 100% return over the TTM coming from multiple expansion

Yes,
Mania

7
Facebook Amazon Netflix Google Please Sir, may I have another?
Decelerating growth and big multiple expansion spells trouble for 2016

Yes,
Mania

8
 even if DotCom2.0 pales in comparison to Version 1.0 so far

9
As in prior years, the low earnings quality of the R2000 presaged high yield
stress however, earnings quality has been recovering while spreads
deteriorate this is bullish for high yield in 2016 unless the economy tanks

10
The improving earnings quality has been driven by rising aggregate earnings. This is similar to
late 2006 and suggests we are late in the cycle, but not necessarily at the end

11
Non-financial domestic profit margins continue their inexorable decline helped
by the decline in energy margins. Still a long way to average and a poor
predictor of recessions. A US recession is a late 2016, early 2017 event at best:

12
2015 key review
A Tale of Two Years
First half -- Long Biotechs (+35.0%), Long China (+32%)
Second half Short EM and faux DM(+25.5%), Short Commodities
(+22%), long Quality vs Junk (+25%)
Theme for entire year? Vampire FANGs (+44%)
Ice Farm core view was that equity vol was too low, that
faux DMs (Canada) were heading towards recession.
Right, but stumbled in delivering

Theme Outlook
Demographics older, not wiser
Inflation the Phillips Curveball
Economic Outlook Logistic growth limited by supply of labor
Deleveraging a function of demographics
Inequality misspecified, but politically powerful
Why Civilizations Fail real time investment implications for
China, Russia, Middle East and Japan

2016 Ice Farm best ideas

13
 We are unshaken in our view that equity multiples will contract due to Boomer
asset shifts we believed rising volatility in 2015 was likely to begin to accelerate
this process

some have even suggested that when Baby Boomers draw down
their financial assets to pay for their retirement consumption, selling
pressure may generate an asset market meltdown, a sharp decline in
asset values. However, that scenario seems unlikely because it is
inconsistent with forward-looking behavior on the part of financial
market participants; it would require a sharp fall in asset prices in
response to a predictable demographic
event.
We find that long-term forecasted demand growth is a
significant predictor of industry returns. We also
analyze the relationship between stock returns and
forecasted demand growth at different horizons. We
find that demand growth four to eight
years ahead is the strongest predictor of returns. We
present a model of inattention to information about the
distant future that is consistent with the findings.

Aging and the Macroeconomy

http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13465 http://eml.berkeley.edu/~sdellavi/wp/demogrAERFinal.pdf

Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Bloomberg, Ice Farm analysis

14
 We nailed it

Equity allocations have

turned down despite equity
markets ending roughly
unchanged for 2015. This is
just the start of Boomer
sales

Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Bloomberg, Ice Farm analysis

15
With record outflows, the only buyer left is the procyclical corporate. Anyone
want to try and bring an IPO? Unicorns on the Barbie

16
Our economic model continues to explain why we are seeing slow aggregate
growth in incomes aging populations deliver less income growth per worker

Less physically
demanding work, higher
incomes later, peak at 55
(First Boomers hit in
2000, last Boomers at
2020)

The net effect of these demographic

trends is best captured by the SRW
(support ratio weighted), which is projected
to decline 12 percent by 2050. This means
that, other things being equal,
consumption per capita will be 12
More time
in school percent lower than it would be without
population aging.

Income collapse post

retirement The
Boomers are Leaving!
The Boomers are
Leaving!

17
 and why developed market aggregate consumption has been slow to recover
following the beginning of the Baby Boom retirement in 1999

Are Consumption Patterns of Elderly Households Consistent With

a Life-Cycle Model?
Chiu Fui Joyce Mok, Ohio State University
Hui Wang, Ohio State University
Sherman D. Hanna, Ohio State University
ABSTRACT - A life-cycle savings model was tested to analyze
consumption patterns of elderly U.S. households, using the 1990
and 1991 BLS Interview Survey of Consumer Expenditures. The
model implies substantial, planned decreases in consumption
after retirement, regardless of income patterns. The empirical
analysis suggests that as the world population ages, total
consumption will decrease, as will most categories of
consumption.

http://www.acrwebsite.org/search/view-conference-
proceedings.aspx?Id=11217

18
Who would have guessed inflation at 1% in 2015? THIS GUY!
For 2016, risks are skewed to slightly higher levels due to tightening
rental and labor markets but not much

2015-2020
forecast

19
From a demographic standpoint, the US is only marginally better than other
major developed economies. This suggests further interest rate convergence on
the long end barring substantial policy differentials (25bps hikes dont count).

20
We started 2015 skeptical about Abenomics: And while the current excitement
about Abenomics is palpable, where hes going to find an additional 3MM
workers is beyond me

21
And enter 2016 convinced hes dangerous Denial is not a policy:

22
To be fair, no one is getting more workers This may eventually lead to
contracting capacity and rising prices, but for now declining marginal propensity
to consume is the driver

23
 speaking of Japan we expect that we will prevail in our views on household
deleveraging which has continued unabated in all regions this was a CAUSE of
the GFC, not a byproduct

24
And aging populations are also more prone to sustained unemployment as we
have seen in the United States. Once again, Japan provides a template:

25
The theory of kick the can has been short-circuited by weak aggregate demand growth

Increased Excess
Investment Capacity

Increased Price Low interest rates, tax subsidies and

Profits Declines barriers to entry are preserving
profits despite weak utilization and
slow nominal growth. As a result,
capacity has not contracted to meet
Higher
Corporate
Sector
demand:
Prices profit
decline

Higher Reduced
utilization investment

26
Our view on duration was very simple: If theyre not expanding, yields are
falling results seem close enough for government work

27
I am not a bull on gold I am a bear on government restraint but please,
nothing to see here move on

28
And for what its worth, there is little evidence that we are seeing anything
different this time. Bad policy can derail this trend (Volcker), but no evidence
weve deviated yet

29
Inequality -- with LBJs War on Poverty, a choice was made to subsidize
those who do not work. As a result, weve gotten more of what we subsidize:

As percent of GDP:

30
And who, exactly do we think receives the $85T of unfunded future government
transfers? Hint, if youre reading this it is likely not you:

31
Failing civilizations and cornered animals we have made growth a sin:
Nonsense
To avoid the common fate of all past
civilizations will require a radical
change in our ethosto wit, the
deliberate renunciation of
greatnesslest we precipitate a
dark age in which the arts and
adornments of civilization are
partially or completely lost.
Sense
The most important development of the twenty-first century is likely to
be the great extinction of peoples and cultures. Like Greece and Rome,
Europe has lost faith in itself; though incomparably richer than the
peasants who built the Cathedrals, the denizens of what used to be
Christendom spend only on themselves, with no thought for the
morrow. They have failed to attend to the most elementary task of a
successful civilization: raising children. In no European country is the
birthrate at replacement level. As David P. Goldman, Spengler of Asia
Times Online, tells it, not only is the old world dying, it has reached the
demographic point of no return.
32
Again, we have radically increased the costs of raising youth and radically
subsidized the process of getting old this is unsustainable

33
 Instability comes in two flavors

Source: UN, Ice Farm analysis 34

 China Vending Machine Stole My Quarter! No refunds

Old before rich

Labor supply shrinking
Capital spending boom for urbanization exhausted
Blocked in the East by Japan and US, must go West

Strategy: Utilize FX reserves to gain access to Near

East colonies while selling goods to the West to
finance

Outcome: Uncertainty in rule of law has resulted in

Chinas best and brightest fleeing followed by the Well, that
capital of the Kleptocrats. China can either devalue didnt work

and shut capital outflows to preserve FX, or lose

strategic options in West (One Belt One Road)

Be prepared for the CNY to fall

Source: Ice Farm analysis 35

 Russia Wed like to thank you Mrs. Merkel for really showing us the way!

Old and rapidly aging population

Technology drain from 1990s largely complete
Landlocked and trapped between hostile forces

Strategy: Play Monopoly to annoy the dominant power (US) by making

strategic partnerships with failing players (e.g. Syria). By propping up
other failed states, positions itself for a grand bargain to sell them
out in exchange for integration with leaders.

Outcome: It looks like Mr. Putin has won. Expect Russia to reintegrate,
at least economically, with Western Europe in exchange for policing
the borders. He keeps Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, gets control of
ports on the Mediterranean in Syria. Sanctions get lifted.

Be prepared for the RUB to soar as oil oversupply corrects in late 2016

Source: Ice Farm analysis 36

 Saudi Arabia The Revolution Approaches

Kleptocratic aristocracy facing first true succession challenges

from many royal families to one royal line (expect challenges)
Legitimacy with religious leaders dependent on purchasing
indulgences that fund extremism

Strategy: Loot the countrys resources while forcing citizens to move

to cake based diet. Tempt foreign capital with discounted assets to
which the owners have only tenuous claims

Outcome: Turning and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Buyers of Aramco beware

Source: Ice Farm analysis 37

 Japan Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss

Nationalist in charge fiscal stimulus can only come as military

Shrinking labor force makes growth virtually impossible

Strategy: Lower the price of domestic labor to try to win growth from
abroad

Outcome: Baumols Disease means local services labor resists cost declines in
local FX terms and impoverishes services dependent elderly requiring
additional government expenditures
The end game of currency debasement approaches.

..we employ projections of the labor force to construct long-term

inflation and unemployment forecasts. These suggest that the GDP
deflator will be negative (between -0.5% and -2% per year) during
the next 40 years
Kitov & Kitov, 2013

Source: Ice Farm analysis 38

2015 key review
A Tale of Two Years
First half -- Long Biotechs (+35.0%), Long China (+32%)
Second half Short EM and faux DM(+25.5%), Short Commodities
(+22%), long Quality vs Junk (+25%)
Theme for entire year? Vampire FANGs (+44%)
Ice Farm core view was that equity vol was too low, that
faux DMs (Canada) were heading towards recession.
Right, but stumbled in delivering

Theme Outlook
Demographics older, not wiser
Inflation the Phillips Curveball
Economic Outlook Logistic growth limited by supply of labor
Deleveraging a function of demographics
Inequality misspecified, but politically powerful
Why Civilizations Fail real time investment implications for
China, Russia, Middle East and Japan

2016 Ice Farm best ideas

39
Best Ideas: Short Global Auto Sector

The transition to oversupply has historically

been the signal to short the US auto sector

Periods of oversupply have

resulted in cumulative returns of -
71% since 1981 for Ford stock.
Since 1991, similar results
achieved for broad auto sector

40
New auto sales are a function of the number of workers

Declining over
time as a fully
penetrated
technology so
growing used stock
of autos available

41
In periods of expansion, we overproduce autos relative to fully cycle target

This allows
replacement of
aged vehicles, but
ultimately creates
oversupply of new
vehicles and a
downturn

Projection through
2020 based on
continued NFP
additions of 100K per
month. Low
sensitivity to 200K
projection

42
However, this leads to a pattern of cumulative
over/(under) production of new cars

43
The evidence for over/(under) production is
robust it affects used vs new car pricing:

New cars are

always a superior
good to used cars.
As a result, excess
new car production
should show up in
relative
underperformance
of used car pricing
(orange line rising)

44
The evidence for over/(under) production is robust it
affects operating margins for the industry:

Excess supply
should result in
falling operating
margins due to
pricing pressures.
This is supported
by the empirical
results for the
public auto
manufacturers.
Consensus margins
seem optimistic.

45
The evidence for over/(under) production is robust it
affects operating margins for the industry:

Viewed in XY
format, the current
consensus forecast
seems outright
insane.

46
We can reasonably project that at some point in the future,
sales and production will return below target

As the cycle turns

lower, there is a
positive
feedback loop into
employment
(fewer employees)
that exacerbates
the cycle. Weak
labor force growth
suggests the next
downturn could be
to a lower level
than the last one.

47
The low valuations of the auto sector seem to reflect this sober
outlook:

Median P/E for the

sector is 8.8x

48
However, these low valuations largely reflect elevated margin
expectations and unrealistic EPS targets

This analysis
suggests GM EPS
in 2017 will be
$1.26 rather than
consensus $5.70

49
Using CS Holt models, a conservative forecast based on supply
levels indicates the market is far from pricing in downside

50
Best Ideas: Long Oil via either Breakevens or $/RUB with a caveat enter trade at end of
January and dont get greedy. Ice Farm forecast remains for contained inflation and $ strength

Inflation breakevens have again fallen with oil prices and China turmoil.

51
Best Ideas: Long Oil via either Breakevens or $/RUB with a caveat

Inflation breakevens have again fallen with oil prices and China turmoil.
However, further declines in oil prices have limited impact on
breakevens as oil is now dramatically reduced in US purchasing basket

Gasoline Spending as % of Disposable Income

Has fallen
from 8.5% of
income to
4%

52
The core components of CPI are rising with heavily weighted, persistent core
components printing above 3% on a YoY basis
Components of CPI

53
Although a small overall component, oil prices are driving inflation breakevens

54
The far more important Rent component is currently running at 3.7% on a forward basis

Rental vacancies predict forward rental price

increases with a fairly high reliability. On this
basis, the forward rent forecast for spring 2016
(i.e. YoY rental CPI in March 2016) at 3.7%

55
This level is validated through other methodologies

56
Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker suggests Services Inflation will continue to rise

57
Durable Goods continue to deflate, but pace of declines appears to be slowing

58
Non-Durable Goods appear to have reached typical trough
2% average does not appear to have changed, risks appear skewed to upside

59
2016 Inflation Buildup impact on 5yr Inflation Breakeven

60
Market participants are concerned that Fed hikes will reduce inflation historically inaccurate

Inflation breakevens rise into hikes this appears true this time as well

61
Best Ideas: Still Blame Canada! Short Canada Financials through ETFs (XFN.CN and EWC)

Canada has perpetuated a housing bubble similar to the US on the back of

high commodity prices. The high commodity prices are gone, replaced by
fraudulent refinancings and Chinese capital
Employment has surged in Finance/Real Estate and Construction which are
derivatives of either oil or Asian immigration from China
Chinese immigration has slowed dramatically on immigration reforms
Oil prices have collapsed
Canadian equities are priced at significant premium to US counterparts
In 2015, the trade was through the currency very little price impact on
CAD$ equity prices which remain near highs
2016 overextended CAD dollar should pause while Canadian equities
suffer in local currency

62
Canadian Household Debt continues to climb no deleveraging in sight. At 164%, its
31% pts above the US peak at 133% (which continues to fall)

63
Strategy worked in 2015 should continue in 2016

64
USDCAD massively overbought

65
USDCAD massively overbought CAD as oil proxy

66
Canadian employment in Construction and Finance/Real Estate has Surged since 1999
and is showing signs of peaking, but no collapse yet

67
Which shouldnt be a surprise Canada is one of the exit vehicles for fleeing Chinese
money

Source: North Cove Advisors

68
While Canadian banks market cap sits near a record % of GDP, but has just started to
decline:

69