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Climate Change 2014: Mitigation. Chapter 9:

Buildings. Report by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
Chapter January 2014
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Working Group III Mitigation of Climate Change
Chapter 9
Buildings

AreportacceptedbyWorkingGroupIIIoftheIPCCbutnotapprovedindetail.
Note:
ThisdocumentisthecopyeditedversionofthefinaldraftReport,dated17December2013,ofthe
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report "Climate Change 2014:
MitigationofClimateChange"thatwasacceptedbutnotapprovedindetailbythe12thSessionof
WorkingGroupIIIandthe39thSessionoftheIPCCon12April2014inBerlin,Germany.Itconsists
ofthefullscientific,technicalandsocioeconomicassessmentundertakenbyWorkingGroupIII.
The Report should be read in conjunction with the document entitled Climate Change 2014:
MitigationofClimateChange.WorkingGroupIIIContributiontotheIPCC5thAssessmentReport
ChangestotheunderlyingScientific/TechnicalAssessmenttoensureconsistencywiththeapproved
Summary for Policymakers (WGIII: 12th/Doc. 2a, Rev.2) and presented to the Panel at its 39th
Session. This document lists the changes necessary to ensure consistency between the full Report
and the Summary for Policymakers, which was approved linebyline by Working Group III and
acceptedbythePanelattheaforementionedSessions.
Beforepublication,theReport(includingtext,figuresandtables)willundergofinalqualitycheckas
wellasanyerrorcorrectionasnecessary,consistentwiththeIPCCProtocolforAddressingPossible
Errors.PublicationoftheReportisforeseeninSeptember/October2014.
Disclaimer:
Thedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialonmapsdonotimplytheexpressionof
anyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeconcerning
the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the
delimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.
FinalDraft Chapter9 IPCCWGIIIAR5
Chapter: 9
Title: Buildings
Author(s): CLAs: OswaldoLucon,DianargeVorsatz
LAs: AzniZainAhmed,HashemAkbari,PaoloBertoldi,LuisaF.Cabeza,
NicholasEyre,AshokGadgil,L.D.DannyHarvey,YiJiang,Enoch
Liphoto,SevastianosMirasgedis,ShuzoMurakami,JyotiParikh,
ChristopherPyke,MariaVirginiaVilario
CAs: PeterGraham,KseniaPetrichenko,JiyongEom,AgnesKelemen,Volker
Krey

REs MarilynBrown,TamsPlvlgyi
CSAs: FonbeyinHenryAbanda,KatarinaKorytarova
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Chapter9: Buildings
Contents
ExecutiveSummary.............................................................................................................................4
9.1Introduction..................................................................................................................................7
9.2Newdevelopmentsinemissiontrendsanddrivers......................................................................8
9.2.1EnergyandGHGemissionsfrombuildings............................................................................8
9.2.2Trendsanddriversofthermalenergyusesinbuildings......................................................12
9.2.3Trendsanddriversinenergyconsumptionofappliancesinbuildings...............................16
9.3Mitigationtechnologyoptionsandpractices,behavioralaspects.............................................17
9.3.1KeypointsfromAR4............................................................................................................19
9.3.2TechnologicaldevelopmentssinceAR4..............................................................................19
9.3.3ExemplaryNewBuildings....................................................................................................19
9.3.3.1Energyintensityofnewhighperformancebuildings..................................................19
9.3.3.2Monitoringandcommissioningofnewandexistingbuildings....................................21
9.3.3.3Zeroenergy/carbonandenergyplusbuildings............................................................21
9.3.3.4Incrementalcostoflowenergybuildings....................................................................22
9.3.4Retrofitsofexistingbuildings..............................................................................................24
9.3.4.1Energysavings..............................................................................................................24
9.3.4.2Incrementalcost...........................................................................................................24
9.3.5Appliances,consumerelectronics,officeequipment,andlighting....................................25
9.3.6Halocarbons.........................................................................................................................26
9.3.7Avoidingmechanicalheating,cooling,andventilationsystems.........................................27
9.3.8Usesofbiomass...................................................................................................................27
9.3.9Embodiedenergyandbuildingmaterialslifecycle..............................................................27
9.3.10Behaviouralandlifestyleimpacts......................................................................................28
9.4Infrastructureandsystemicperspectives...................................................................................30
9.4.1Urbanformandenergysupplyinfrastructure.....................................................................30
9.4.1.1DistrictHeatingandcoolingnetworks.........................................................................31
9.4.1.2Electricityinfrastructureinteractions..........................................................................31
9.4.1.3ThermalEnergyStorage...............................................................................................32
9.4.2PathDependenciesandlockin...........................................................................................32
9.5Climatechangefeedbackandinteractionwithadaptation........................................................34
9.6Costsandpotentials....................................................................................................................34
9.6.1Summaryofliteratureonaggregatedmitigationpotentialsbykeyidentity......................34
9.6.2Overviewofoptionspecificcostsandpotentials...............................................................38
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9.6.2.1 Costsofveryhighperformancenewconstruction....................................................38
9.6.2.2 Costsofdeepretrofits...............................................................................................40
9.6.3Assessmentofkeyfactorsinfluencingrobustnessandsensitivityofcostsandpotentials40
9.7Cobenefits,risksandspillovers..................................................................................................43
9.7.1Overview..............................................................................................................................43
9.7.2Socioeconomiceffects........................................................................................................45
9.7.2.1Impactsonemployment..............................................................................................45
9.7.2.2Energysecurity.............................................................................................................46
9.7.2.3Benefitsrelatedtoworkplaceproductivity..................................................................46
9.7.2.4Reboundeffects...........................................................................................................46
9.7.2.5Fuelpovertyalleviation................................................................................................47
9.7.3Environmentalandhealtheffects.......................................................................................47
9.7.3.1Healthcobenefitsduetoimprovedindoorconditions...............................................47
9.7.3.2Healthandenvironmentalcobenefitsduetoreducedoutdoorairpollution............48
9.7.3.3Otherenvironmentalbenefits......................................................................................49
9.8Barriersandopportunities..........................................................................................................49
9.9Sectoralimplicationoftransformationpathwaysandsustainabledevelopment......................50
9.9.1.Introduction.........................................................................................................................50
9.9.2.Overviewofbuildingsectorenergyprojections.................................................................50
9.9.3.Keymitigationstrategiesashighlightedbythepathwayanalysis......................................54
9.9.4.Summaryandgeneralobservationsofglobalbuildingfinalenergyuse............................57
9.10Sectoralpolicies........................................................................................................................57
9.10.1PoliciesforEnergyEfficiencyinBuildings..........................................................................57
9.10.1.1Policypackages...........................................................................................................63
9.10.1.2Aholisticapproach.....................................................................................................63
9.10.2Emergingpolicyinstrumentsinbuildings..........................................................................64
9.10.2.1.Newdevelopmentsinbuildingcodes(ordinance,regulation,orbylaws)..............64
9.10.2.2.Energyefficiencyobligationschemesandwhitecertificates.................................64
9.10.3Financingopportunities.....................................................................................................65
9.10.3.1.Newfinancingschemesfordeepretrofits................................................................65
9.10.3.2.OpportunitiesinFinancingforGreenBuildings........................................................66
9.10.4Policiesindevelopingcountries........................................................................................66
9.11Gapsinknowledgeanddata.....................................................................................................67
9.12Frequentlyaskedquestions......................................................................................................68
References........................................................................................................................................69
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ExecutiveSummary
In2010buildingsaccountedfor32%oftotalglobalfinalenergyuse,19%ofenergyrelatedGHG
emissions(includingelectricityrelated),approximatelyonethirdofblackcarbonemissions,andan
eighthtoathirdofFgases(mediumevidence,mediumagreement).Thisenergyuseandrelated
emissionsmaydoubleorpotentiallyeventriplebymidcenturyduetoseveralkeytrends.Avery
importanttrendistheincreasedaccessforbillionsofpeopleindevelopingcountriestoadequate
housing,electricity,andimprovedcookingfacilities.Thewaysinwhichtheseenergyrelatedneeds
willbeprovidedwillsignificantlydeterminetrendsinbuildingenergyuseandrelatedemissions.In
addition,populationgrowth,migrationtocities,householdsizechanges,andincreasinglevelsof
wealthandlifestylechangesgloballywillallcontributetosignificantincreasesinbuildingenergyuse.
Thesubstantialnewconstructionthatistakingplaceindevelopingcountriesrepresentsbotha
significantriskandopportunityfromamitigationperspective.[Sections9.1,9.2]
Incontrasttoadoublingortripling,finalenergyusemaystayconstantorevendeclinebymid
century,ascomparedtotoday'slevels,iftoday'scosteffectivebestpracticesandtechnologiesare
broadlydiffused(mediumevidence,highagreement).Thetechnologysolutionstorealizethis
potentialexistandarewelldemonstrated.Newimprovedenergyefficiencytechnologieshavebeen
developedasexistingenergyefficiencyopportunitieshavebeentakenup,sothatthepotentialfor
costeffectiveenergyefficiencyimprovementhasnotbeendiminishing.Recentdevelopmentsin
technologyandknowhowenableconstructionandretrofitofverylowandzeroenergybuildings,
oftenatlittlemarginalinvestmentcost,typicallypayingbackwellwithinthebuildinglifetime(high
agreement,robustevidence).Inexistingbuildings5090%energysavingshavebeenachieved
throughouttheworldthroughdeepretrofits(highagreement,mediumevidence).Energyefficient
appliances,lighting,informationcommunication(ICT),andmediatechnologiescanreducethe
growthinthesubstantialincreasesinelectricityusethatareexpectedduetotheproliferationof
equipmenttypesusedandtheirincreasedownershipanduse(highagreement,robustevidence).
[9.2,9.3]
Strongbarriershinderthemarketuptakeofthesecosteffectiveopportunities,andlargepotentials
willremainuntappedwithoutadequatepolicies(robustevidence,highagreement).Thesebarriers
includeimperfectinformation,splitincentives,lackofawareness,transactioncosts,inadequate
accesstofinancing,andindustryfragmentation.Indevelopingcountries,corruption,inadequate
servicelevels,subsidizedenergyprices,andhighdiscountratesareadditionalbarriers.Marketforces
alonearenotlikelytoachievethenecessarytransformationwithoutexternalstimuli.Policy
interventionaddressingalllevelsofthebuildingandappliancelifecycleanduse,plusnewbusiness
andfinancialmodelsareessential.[9.8]
Thereisabroadportfolioofeffectivepolicyinstrumentsavailabletoremovethesebarriers,some
ofthembeingimplementedalsoindevelopingcountries,thussavingemissionsatlargenegative
costs(robustevidence,highagreement).Overall,thehistoryofenergyefficiencyprogrammesin
buildingsshowsthat2530%efficiencyimprovementshavebeenavailableatcostssubstantially
lowerthanmarginalsupply.Dynamicdevelopmentsinbuildingrelatedpoliciesinsomedeveloped
countrieshavedemonstratedtheeffectivenessofsuchinstruments,astotalbuildingenergyusehas
startedtodecreasewhileaccommodatingcontinuedeconomic,andinsomecases,population
growth.Buildingcodesandappliancestandardswithstrongenergyefficiencyrequirementsthatare
wellenforced,tightenedovertime,andmadeappropriatetolocalclimateandotherconditionshave
beenamongthemostenvironmentallyandcosteffective.Netzeroenergybuildingsaretechnically
demonstrated,butmaynotalwaysbethemostcostandenvironmentallyeffectivesolutions.
Experienceshowsthatpricingislesseffectivethanprogrammesandregulation(mediumagreement,
mediumevidence).Financinginstruments,policies,andotheropportunitiesareavailabletoimprove
energyefficiencyinbuildings,buttheresultsobtainedtodatearestillinsufficienttodeliverthefull
potential(mediumagreement,mediumevidence).Combinedandenhanced,theseapproachescould
providesignificantfurtherimprovementsintermsofbothenhancedenergyaccessandenergy
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efficiency.Deliveringlowcarbonoptionsraisesmajorchallengesfordata,research,education,
capacitybuilding,andtraining.[9.10]
Duetotheverylonglifespansofbuildingsandretrofitsthereisaverysignificantlockinrisk
pointingtotheurgencyofambitiousandimmediatemeasures(robustevidence,medium
agreement).Evenifthemostambitiousofcurrentlyplannedpoliciesareimplemented,
approximately80%of2005energyuseinbuildingsgloballywillbelockedinby2050fordecades,
comparedtoascenariowheretoday'sbestpracticebuildingsbecomethestandardinnewbuilding
constructionandexistingbuildingretrofit.Asaresult,theurgentadoptionofstateoftheart
performancestandards,inbothnewandretrofitbuildings,avoidslockingincarbonintensiveoptions
forseveraldecades.[9.4]
Inadditiontotechnologiesandarchitecture,behaviour,lifestyle,andculturehaveamajoreffect
onbuildingsenergyuse,presentlycausing35timesdifferencesinenergyuseforsimilarlevelsof
energyservices(limitedevidence,highagreement).Indevelopedcountries,evidenceindicatesthat
behavioursinformedbyawarenessofenergyandclimateissuescanreducedemandbyupto20%in
theshorttermand50%by2050.Alternativedevelopmentpathwaysexistthatcanmoderatethe
growthofenergyuseindevelopingcountriesthroughtheprovisionofhighlevelsofbuildingservices
atmuchlowerenergyinputs,incorporatingcertainelementsoftraditionallifestylesandarchitecture,
andcanavoidsuchtrends.Indevelopedcountries,theconceptofsufficiency'hasalsobeen
emerging,goingbeyondpureefficiency.Reducingenergydemandincludesrationallymeetingfloor
spaceneeds.[9.3]
Beyondenergycostsavings,mostmitigationoptionsinthissectorhaveothersignificantand
diversecobenefits(robustevidence,highagreement).Takentogether,themonetizablecobenefits
ofmanyenergyefficiencymeasuresaloneoftensubstantiallyexceedtheenergycostsavingsand
possiblytheclimatebenefits(mediumagreement,mediumevidence),withthenonmonetizable
benefitsoftenalsobeingsignificant(highagreement,robustevidence).Thesebenefitsoffer
attractiveentrypointsforactionintopolicymaking,evenincountriesorjurisdictionswherefinancial
resourcesformitigationarelimited(highagreement,robustevidence).Theseentrypointsinclude,
butarenotlimitedto,energysecurity;lowerneedforenergysubsidies;health(duetoreduced
indoorandoutdoorairpollutionaswellasfuelpovertyalleviation)andenvironmentalbenefits;
productivityandnetemploymentgains;alleviatedenergyandfuelpovertiesaswellasreduced
energyexpenditures;increasedvalueforbuildinginfrastructure;improvedcomfortandservices
(highagreement,mediumevidence).However,thesearerarelyinternalizedbypolicies,whilea
numberoftoolsandapproachesareavailabletoquantifyandmonetizecobenefitsthatcanhelpthis
integration(mediumagreement,mediumevidence).[9.7]
Insummary,buildingsrepresentacriticalpieceofalowcarbonfutureandaglobalchallengefor
integrationwithsustainabledevelopment(robustevidence,highagreement).Buildingsembody
thebiggestunmetneedforbasicenergyservices,especiallyindevelopingcountries,whilemuch
existingenergyuseinbuildingsindevelopedcountriesisverywastefulandinefficient.Existingand
futurebuildingswilldeterminealargeproportionofglobalenergydemand.Currenttrendsindicate
thepotentialformassiveincreasesinenergydemandandassociatedemissions.However,this
chaptershowsthatbuildingsofferimmediatelyavailable,highlycosteffectiveopportunitiesto
reduce(growthin)energydemand,whilecontributingtomeetingotherkeysustainable
developmentgoalsincludingpovertyalleviation,energysecurity,andimprovedemployment.This
potentialismorefullyrepresentedinsectoralmodelsthaninmanyintegratedmodels,asthelatter
donotrepresentanyoralloftheoptionstocosteffectivelyreducebuildingenergyuse.Realizing
theseopportunitiesrequiresaggressiveandsustainedpoliciesandactiontoaddresseveryaspectof
thedesign,construction,andoperationofbuildingsandtheirequipmentaroundtheworld.The
significantadvancesinbuildingcodesandappliancestandardsinsomejurisdictionsoverthelast
decadealreadydemonstratedthattheywereabletoreversetotalbuildingenergyusetrendsin
developedcountriestoitsstagnationorreduction.However,inordertoreachambitiousclimate
goals,theseneedtobesubstantiallyupscaledtofurtherjurisdictions,buildingtypes,andvintages.
[9.6,9.9,9.10]Table9.1summarizessomemainfindingsofthechapterbykeymitigationstrategy.
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Table 9.1. Summary of chapter's main findings organized by major mitigation strategies (identities)
Carbonefficiency Energyefficiencyoftechnology System/(infrastructure)efficiency Servicedemand
reduction
Mitigation BuildingintegratedRES(BiRES, Highperformancebuildingenvelope(HPE).Efficientappliances Passivehousestandard(PHS). Nearly/netzero andenergyplusenergybuildings Behaviouralchange
options BiPV).Fuelswitchingtolow (EA).Efficientlighting(EL).EfficientHeating,Ventilation,andAir (NZEB)(9.3.3.3).IntegratedDesignProcess(IDP).Urbanplanning(UP),(9.4.1). (BC).Lifestyle
carbonfuelssuchaselectricity Conditioningsystems(eHVAC).Buildingautomationandcontrol Districtheating/cooling(DH/C).Commissioning(C).Advancedbuildingcontrol change(LSC).
(9.4.1.2).Useofnatural systems(BACS).Daylighting,heatpumps,indirectevaporative systems(9.3.3.2).Highefficiencydistributedenergysystems,cogeneration, Smartmetering
refrigerantstoreduce coolingtoreplacechillersindryclimates,advancesindigital trigeneration,loadlevelling,diurnalthermalstorage,advancedmanagement (9.4.1.2)
halocarbonemissions(9.3.6). buildingautomationandcontrolsystems,smartmetersandgrids (9.4.1.1).Smartgrids(9.4.1.2).Utilizationofwasteheat(9.4.1.1)
Advancedbiomassstoves (9.3.2).Solarpowereddesiccantdehumidification.
(9.3.8).
Potential Solarelectricitygeneration 9.5%to68%energysavingsofBAU(Table9.4).Energysavings 30to70%CO2 ofBAU.PHS&NZEB/newversusconventionalbuilding: 83% 20to40%of
reductionsof throughbuildingsrooftop fromadvancedappliances:Ovens45%,microwaveovens75%, (residentialheatingenergy)and50%(commercialheating&coolingenergy). BAU.LSC~40%
energy photovoltaic(PV)installations: Dishwashersupto45%,Clotheswashers28%(by2030globally), DeepretrofitsDRs(residential,Europe):40to80%.IDPupto70%final electricityuse
use/emission energysavings15to58%of ClothesDryersfactorof2reduction,airconditioners5075%, energyby2050(Table9.4);Potentialglobalbuildingfinalenergydemand (Table9.4).
s(versus BAU(Table9.4) Ceilingfans5057%,Officecomputersandmonitors40%, reduction:IAMs5to27%;bottomupmodels:14to75%(Fig.9.21).Energy
baselineBAU) Circulationpumpsforhydronicheatingandcooling40%(by2020, savingsbybuildingtype:(i)detachedsinglefamilyhomes,totalenergyuse
EU),Residentialwaterheatersfactorof4improvement(Table 5075%;(ii)multifamilyhousing,spaceheatingrequirements8090%,(iii)
9.3).Also,30to60%infuelsavings,80to90%inindoorair multifamilyhousingindevelopingcountries,coolingenergyuse30%,heating
pollutionlevelsfromadvancedbiomassstovesascomparedtoopen energy60%;(iv)commercialbuildings,totalHVAC2550%;(v)lighting
fires(9.3.8) retrofitsofcommercialbuildings3060%(9.3.4.1)
Cost Retrofitofseparatemeasures:CCE:0.010.10USD2010/kWh(Fig. PHS&NZEB/new(EU&USA),CCE:0.70.2USD2010/kWh(Figure9.11,9.12).DR
effectiveness 9.13).EfficientAppliances:CCE:0.09USD2010/kWh/yr(9.3.4.2) withenergysavingsof6075%:CCEof0.050.25USD2010/kWh(Fig.9.13)
Cobenefits CB:Energysecurity;lowerneedforenergysubsidies;healthandenvironmentalbenefits
(CB),adverse CB:Employmentimpact; CB:Employment;energy/fuelpovertyalleviation;improved CB:Employmentimpact;improvedproductivityandcompetitiveness;enhanced
sideeffects enhancedassetvalueof productivity/competitiveness;assetvalueofbuildings;improved assetvaluesofbuildings;improvedqualityoflife.AE:Reboundeffect,lower
(AE) buildings;energy/fuelpoverty qualityoflife.AE:reboundandlockineffects lifecycleenergyuseoflowenergybuildingsincomparisontotheconventional
alleviation.AE:Energy (9.3.9)
access/fuelpoverty
Keybarriers Suboptimalmeasures, Transactioncosts,accesstofinancing,principalagentproblems, Energyandinfrastructurelockin(9.4.2),pathdependency(9.4.2)fragmented Imperfect
subsidiestoconventionalfuels fragmentedmarketandinstitutionalstructures,poorfeedback marketandinstitutionalstructures,poorenforcementofregulations information,risk
aversion,cognitive
andbehavioural
patterns,lackof
awareness,poor
personnel
qualification
Keypolicies Ctax,feedintariffsextended publicprocurement,appliancestandards,taxexemptions,soft Buildingcodes,preferentialloans,subsidisedfinancingschemes,ESCOs,EPCs, Awarenessraising,
forsmallcapacity;softloans loans suppliers'obligations,whitecertificates,IDPintoUrbanPlanning,Importanceof education,energy
forrenewabletechnologies policypackagesratherthansingleinstruments(9.10.1.2) audits,energy
labelling,building
certificates&
ratings,energyor
carbontax,
personalcarbon
allowance
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9.1 Introduction
ThischapteraimstoupdatetheknowledgeonthebuildingsectorsincetheIPCCFourthAssessment
Report(AR4)fromamitigationperspective.Buildingsandactivitiesinbuildingsareresponsiblefora
significantshareofGHGemissions,buttheyarealsothekeytomitigationstrategies.In2010,the
buildingsectoraccountedforapproximately117Exajoules(EJ)or32%ofglobalfinalenergy
consumptionand30%ofenergyrelatedCO2emissions;and51%ofglobalelectricityconsumption.
BuildingscontributetoasignificantamountofFgasemissions,withlargedifferencesinreported
figuresduetodifferingaccountingconventions,rangingfromaroundaneighthtoathirdofallsuch
emissions(9.3.6).Thechapterarguesthatbeyondalargeemissionrole,mitigationopportunitiesin
thissectorarealsosignificant,oftenverycosteffective,andareinmanytimesassociatedwith
significantcobenefitsthatcanexceedthedirectbenefitsbyordersofmagnitude.Thesectorhas
significantmitigationpotentialsatloworevennegativecosts.Nevertheless,withoutstrongactions
emissionsarelikelytogrowconsiderablyandtheymayevendoublebymidcenturydueto
severaldrivers.Thechapterpointsoutthatcertainpolicieshaveproventobeveryeffectiveand
severalnewonesareemerging.Asaresult,buildingenergyusetrendshavebeenreversedto
stagnationorevenreductioninsomejurisdictionsinrecentyears,despitetheincreasesinaffluence
andpopulation.
Thechapterusesanovelconceptualframework,inlinewiththegeneralanalyticalframeworkof
WGIIIAR5,whichfocusesonidentitiesasanorganizingprinciple.Thissectiondescribestheidentity
decompositionChapter9choosestoapplyforassessingtheliterature,restingonthegeneralidentity
frameworkdescribedinChapter6.Buildingrelatedemissionsandmitigationstrategieshavebeen
decomposedbydifferentidentitylogics.CommonlyuseddecompositionsusefactorssuchasCO2
intensity,energyintensity,structuralchanges,andeconomicactivity(IsaacandVanVuuren,2009;
Zhangetal.,2009),aswellastheIPAT(IncomePopulationAffluenceTechnology)approach
(MacKellaretal.,1995;OMahonyetal.,2012).Inthisassessment,thereviewfocusesonthemain
decompositionlogicdescribedinChapter6,adoptedandfurtherdecomposedintofouridentitieskey
todrivingbuildingsectoremissions:
CO2 CI TEI SEI A

whereCO2istheemissionsfromthebuildingsector;(identityi)CIisthecarbonintensity;(identityii)
TEIisthetechnologicalenergyintensity;(identityiii)SEIisthestructural\systemicenergyintensity
and(identityiv)Aistheactivity.Foramorepreciseinterpretationofthefactors,thefollowing
conceptualequationdemonstratesthedifferentcomponents:
CO2 FE UsefulE ES A
CO2 pop CI TEI SEI pop
FE UsefulE ES pop pop
inwhichFEisthefinalenergy;UsefulEistheusefulenergyforaparticularenergyservice(ES),as
occurringintheenergyconversionchain,andpopispopulation.GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)is
oftenusedasthemaindecompositionfactorforcommercialbuildingemissions).BecauseESisoften
difficulttorigorouslydefineandmeasure,andUsefulEandESareeitherdifficulttomeasureorlittle
dataareavailable,thischapterdoesnotattemptasystematicquantitativedecomposition,butrather
focusesonthemainstrategiccategoriesformitigationbasedontherelationshipestablishedinthe
previousequation:
CO2 mitigation CEff TEff SI Eff DR
whereby(1)CEff,orcarbonefficiency,entailsfuelswitchtolowcarbonfuels,buildingintegrated
renewableenergysources,andothersupplysidedecarbonization;(2)TEff,ortechnologicalefficiency,
focusesontheefficiencyimprovementofindividualenergyusingdevices;(3)SIEff,or
systemic/infrastructuralefficiency,encompassallefficiencyimprovementswherebyseveralenergy
usingdevicesareinvolved,i.e.,systemicefficiencygainsaremade,orenergyusereductionsdueto
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architectural,infrastructural,andsystemicmeasures;andfinally(4)DR,ordemandreduction,
composesallmeasuresthatarebeyondtechnologicalefficiencyanddecarbonizationmeasures,such
asimpactsonfloorspace,servicelevels,behaviour,lifestyle,use,andpenetrationofdifferent
appliances.Thefourmainemissiondriversandmitigationstrategiescanbefurtherdecomposedinto
moredistinctsubstrategies,butduetothelimitedspaceinthisreportandinordertomaintaina
structurethatsupportsconvenientcomparisonbetweendifferentsectoralchapters,wefocuson
thesefourmainidentitiesduringtheassessmentofliteratureinthischapterandusethis
decompositionasthemainorganizing/conceptualframework.
9.2 Newdevelopmentsinemissiontrendsanddrivers
9.2.1 EnergyandGHGemissionsfrombuildings
Greenhousegas(GHG)emissionsfromthebuildingsectorhavemorethandoubledsince1970to
reach9.18GtCO2eqin2010(Figure9.1. ),representing25%oftotalemissionswithoutthe
Agriculture,Forestry,andLandUse(AFOLU)sector;and19%ofallglobal2010GHGemissions(IEA,
2012a;JRC/PBL,2012;seeAnnexII.8).Furthermore,theyaccountforapproximatelyonethirdof
blackcarbonemissions(GEA,2012),andoneeighthtoonethirdofFgasemissions,depending
partiallyontheaccountingconventionused(UNEP,2011a;EEA,2013;USEPA,2013;JRC/PBL,2012;
IEA,2012a;seeAnnexII.8).
MostofGHGemissions(6.02Gt)areindirectCO2emissionsfromelectricityuseinbuildings,and
thesehaveshowndynamicgrowthinthestudiedperiodincontrasttodirectemissions,whichhave
roughlystagnatedduringthesefourdecades(Figure9.1).Forinstance,residentialindirectemissions
quintupledandcommercialemissionsquadrupled.
Figure9.2. showstheregionaltrendsinbuildingrelatedCO2eqemissions.OrganisationforEconomic
CooperationDevelopment(OECD)countrieshavethehighestemissions,butthegrowthinthis
regionbetween1970and2010wasmoderate.Forlessdevelopedcountries,theemissionsarelow
withlittlegrowth.ThelargestgrowthhastakenplaceinAsiawhereemissionsin1970weresimilarto
thoseinotherdevelopingregions,butbytodaytheyareclosinginonthoseofOECDcountries.

Figure 9.1. Direct and emissions indirect (from electricity and heat production) in the building
subsectors (IEA, 2012a; JRC/PBL, 2012; see Annex II.8 ).
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Figure 9.2. Regional direct and indirect emissions in the building subsectors (IEA, 2012; JRC/PBL,
2013; see Annex II.8).
Duetothehighshareofindirectemissionsinthesector,actualemissionvaluesverystronglydepend
onemissionfactorsmainlythatofelectricityproductionthatarebeyondthescopeofthischapter.
Therefore,therestofthischapterfocusesonfinalenergyuse(ratherthanemissions)thatis
determinedlargelybyactivitiesandmeasureswithinthesector.
In2010buildingsaccountedfor32%(24%forresidentialand8%forcommercial)oftotalglobalfinal
energyuse(IEA,2013),or32.4PWh,beingoneofthelargestendusesectorsworldwide.Space
heatingrepresented3234%oftheglobalfinalenergyconsumptioninboththeresidentialandthe
commercialbuildingsubsectorsin2010(Figure9.4).Moreover,inthecommercialsubsector,
lightingwasveryimportant,whilecookingandwaterheatingweresignificantendusesinresidential
buildings.Incontrasttothedynamicallygrowingtotalemissions,percapitafinalenergyusedidnot
growsubstantiallyoverthetwodecadesbetween1990and2010inmostwordregions(seeFigure
9.3).Thisvaluestagnatedinmostregionsduringtheperiod,exceptforaslightincreaseintheFormer
SovietUnion(FSU)andadynamicgrowthinNorthAfricaandMiddleEast(MEA).Commercialenergy
usehasalsogrownonlymoderatelyinmostregionsonapercapitabasis,withmoredynamicgrowth
showninCentrallyPlannedAsia(CPA),SouthAsia(SAS)andMEA.Thisindicatesthatmosttrendsto
drivebuildingenergyuseuphavebeencompensatedbyefficiencygains.Inmanydevelopingregions
thiscanlargelybeduetoswitchingfromtraditionalbiomasstomodernenergycarriersthatcanbe
utilizedmuchmoreefficiently.
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Figure 9.3. Annual per capita final energy use of residential and commercial buildings for eleven
regions (GEA RC11, see Annex II.2.4) in 1990 and 2010. Data from (IEA, 2013).
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Figure 9.4. World building final energy consumption by end-use in 2010. Source: (IEA, 2013).
AsshowninSection9.9globalbuildingenergyusemaydoubletotriplebymidcenturydueto
severalkeytrends.Anestimated0.8billionpeoplelackaccesstoadequatehousing(UNHabitat,
2010)whileanestimated1.3billionpeoplelackedaccesstoelectricityin2010andabout3billion
peopleworldwidereliedonhighlypollutingandunhealthytraditionalsolidfuelsforhousehold
cookingandheating(IEA,2012a;Pachaurietal.,2012)(seeSection14.3.2.1).Thewaystheseenergy
serviceswillbeprovidedwillsignificantlyinfluencethedevelopmentofbuildingrelatedemissions.In
addition,migrationtocities,decreasinghouseholdsize,increasinglevelsofwealthandlifestyle
changes,includinganincreaseinpersonallivingspace,thetypesandnumberofappliancesand
equipmentandtheiruseallcontributetosignificantincreasesinbuildingenergyuse.Rapid
economicdevelopmentaccompaniedbyurbanizationandshiftsfrominformaltoformalhousingis
propellingsignificantbuildingactivityindevelopingcountries(WBCSD,2007).Asaresult,this
substantialnewconstruction,whichistakingplaceinthesedynamicallygrowingregionsrepresents
bothasignificantriskandopportunityfromamitigationperspective.

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Box 9.1: Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in the context of the developing world
878millionpeoplewithanaverage2USD2010perdayofgrossnationalincome(TheWorldBank,
2013)liveintheLDCsgroup.Rapideconomicdevelopment,accompaniedbyurbanization,is
propellinglargebuildingactivityindevelopingcountries(WBCSD,2007,2009;ABC,2008;Liand
Colombier,2009;seealsoChapter12.3).Thefastgrowingratesofnewconstruction,whichis
occurringinemergingeconomies,isnotbeingwitnessedinLDCs.Thisgroupofcountriesisstillatthe
fringeofmoderndevelopmentprocessesandhasspecialneedsintermsofaccesstohousing,
modernenergycarriers,andefficientandcleanburningcookingdevices(ZhangandSmith,2007;
Dufloetal.,2008;WHO,2009,2011;Wilkinsonetal.,2009;Hailu,2012;Pachauri,2012).Around
onethirdoftheurbanpopulationindevelopingcountriesin2010didnothaveaccesstoadequate
housing(UNHSP,2010)andthenumberofslumdwellersislikelytoriseinthenearfuture(UN
Habitat,2011).Inordertoavoidlockingincarbonintensiveoptionsforseveraldecades,ashiftto
electricityandmodernfuelsneedstobeaccompaniedbyenergysavingsolutions(technological,
architectural),aswellasrenewablesources,adequatemanagement,andsustainablelifestyles
(WBCSD,2006;rgeVorsatzetal.,2009;Wilkinsonetal.,2009;USEERE,2011;GEA,2012;
Wallbaumetal.,2012).Modernknowledgeandtechniquescanbeusedtoimprovevernacular
designs(ForuzanmehrandVellinga,2011).Principlesoflowenergydesignoftenprovidecomfortable
conditionsmuchofthetime,therebyreducingthepressuretoinstallenergyintensivecooling
equipmentsuchasairconditioners.Theseprinciplesareembeddedinvernaculardesignsthroughout
theworld,andhaveevolvedovercenturiesintheabsenceofactiveenergysystems.
Beyondthedirectenergycostsavings,manymitigationoptionsinthissectorhavesignificantand
diversecobenefitsthatofferattractiveentrypointsformitigationpolicymaking,evenin
countries/jurisdictionswherefinancialresourcesformitigationarelimited.Thesecobenefitsinclude,
butarenotlimitedto,energysecurity,airquality,andhealthbenefits;reducedpressurestoexpand
energygenerationcapacitiesindevelopingregions;productivity,competitiveness,andnet
employmentgains;increasedsocialwelfare;reducedfuelpoverty;decreasedneedforenergy
subsidiesandexposuretoenergypricevolatilityrisks;improvedcomfortandservices;andimproved
adaptabilitytoadverseclimateevents(Herreroetal.;ClinchandHealy,2001).
9.2.2 Trendsanddriversofthermalenergyusesinbuildings
Figure9.5showsprojectionsofthermalenergyusesincommercialandresidentialbuildingsinthe
regionsoftheworldfrom2010to2050(rgeVorsatzetal.,2013a).Whileenergyconsumptionfor
thermalusesinbuildingsinthedevelopedcountries(seeNorthAmericaandWesternEurope)
accountsformostoftheenergyconsumptionintheworld,itstendencyistogrowlittleintheperiod
shown,whiledevelopingcountriesshowanimportantincrease.Commercialbuildingsrepresent
between10to30%oftotalbuildingsectorthermalenergyconsumptioninmostregionsoftheworld,
exceptforChina,whereheatingandcoolingenergyconsumptionincommercialbuildingsisexpected
toovertakethatofresidentialbuildings.Driverstothesetrendsandtheirdevelopmentsare
discussedseparatelyforheating/coolingandotherbuildingenergyservicesbecauseofconceptually
differentdrivers.Heatingandcoolingenergyuseinresidentialbuildingscanbedecomposedbythe
followingkeyidentities,from(rgeVorsatzetal.,2013a):
p area energy
energyresidential h
h p area
whereenergyresidentialstandsforthetotalresidentialthermalenergydemand,[h]and[p/h]arethe
activitydrivers,with[h]beingthenumberofhouseholdsandthe[p/h]numberofpersons(p)living
ineachhousehold,respectively.[area/p]istheuseintensitydriver,withthefloorarea(usuallym2)
perperson;and[energy/area]istheenergyintensitydriver,i.e.,theannualthermalenergy
consumption(usuallykWh)perunitoffloorarea,alsoreferredtoasspecificenergyconsumption.
Forcommercialbuildings,theheatingandcoolinguseisdecomposedas
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area energy
energycommercial GDP
GDP area
whereenergycommercialstandsforthetotalcommercialthermalenergydemand,[GDP],i.e.,nominal
GrossDomesticProductistheactivitydriver;[area/GDP]istheuseintensitydriverand
[energy/area]istheenergyintensitydriver,theannualthermalenergyconsumption(inkWh)perunit
offloorarea(inm2),alsoreferredtoasspecificenergyconsumption.Thefollowingfiguresillustrate
themaintrendsinheatingandcoolingenergyuseaswellasitsdriversgloballyandbyregion.

Figure 9.5.Total annual final thermal energy consumption (PWh/yr)] trends in eleven world regions
(GEA RC11, see Annex II.2.4) for residential and commercial buildings. Historical data (19802000)
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are from IEA statistics; projections (20102050) are based on a frozen efficiency scenario (rge-
Vorsatz et al., 2013b).
Heatingandcoolingenergyuseinresidentialandcommercialbuildings,respectively,andisexpected
togrowby79%and83%,respectively,overtheperiod20102050(Figure9.6)inabusinessasusual
scenario.Inresidentialbuildings,boththegrowingnumberofhouseholdsandtheareaper
householdtendtoincreaseenergyconsumption,whilethedecreaseinthenumberofpersonsper
householdandinspecificenergyconsumptiontendtodecreaseenergyconsumption.Incommercial
buildings,theprojecteddecreasearea/GDPis57%,whileenergy/areaisexpectedtostayconstant
overtheperiod20102030.Differenttendenciesofthedriversareshownforbothresidentialand
commercialbuildingsintheworldaswhole(Figure9.6)andindifferentworldregions(Figure9.7).
Moredetailedinformationabouteachdrivertrendcanbefoundin(rgeVorsatzetal.,2013a).
Thesefiguresindicatethatinsomeregions(e.g.,NAMandWEU),strongenergybuildingpoliciesare
alreadyresultingindecliningorstagnatingtotalenergyusetrendsdespitetheincreaseinpopulation
andservicelevels.
Figure 9.6.Trends in the different drivers for global heating and cooling thermal energy consumption in
residential and commercial buildings. Sources: Historic data (19802000) from (rge-Vorsatz et al.,
2013a); projection data (20102050) based on frozen efficiency scenario in (rge-Vorsatz et al.,
2013b).
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Figure 9.7. Trends in the drivers of heating and cooling thermal energy consumption of residential
(first page) and commercial (this page) buildings in world regions (GEA RC11, see Annex II.2.4).
Sources: Historic data (19802000) from (rge-Vorsatz et al., 2013a) and projections (20102050)
based on a frozen efficiency scenario (rge-Vorsatz et al., 2013b).
9.2.3 Trendsanddriversinenergyconsumptionofappliancesinbuildings
Inthischapter,weusethewordappliancesinabroadersense,coveringallelectricityusingnon
thermalequipmentinbuildings,includinglightingandICT.Traditionallargeappliances,suchas
refrigeratorsandwashingmachines,arestillresponsibleformosthouseholdelectricityconsumption
(IEA,2012c)albeitwithafallingsharerelatedtotheequipmentforinformationtechnologyand
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communications(includinghomeentertainment)accountinginmostcountriesfor20%ormoreof
residentialelectricityconsumption(Harvey,2008).Thisrapidgrowthoffersopportunitiestorollout
moreefficienttechnologies,butthiseffecttodatehasbeenoutcompetedbytheincreaseduptakeof
devicesandnewdevicescomingtothemarket.Energyuseofappliancescanbedecomposedas
showninthefollowingequationfrom(Cabezaetal.,2013a):
n energy
energy h
a h n
Whereaisthesumoverallappliances;[h]istheactivitydriver,thenumberofhouseholds;[n/h]is
theuseintensitydriver,i.e.,thenumberofappliancesofappliancetypeaperhousehold;and
[energy]istheenergyintensitydriver(kWh/yrusedperappliance).Thenumberofappliancesused
increasedaroundtheworld.Figure9.8showsthattheenergyconsumptionofmajorappliancesin
nonOECDcountriesisalreadynearlyequaltoconsumptionintheOECD,duetotheirlarge
populationsandwidespreadadoptionofthemainwhiteappliancesandlighting.Inaddition,while
fansareaminorenduseinmostOECDcountries,theycontinuetobeextremelyimportantinthe
warmdevelopingcountries.
Figure 9.8. Residential electricity consumption by end-

use in a policy scenario from the Bottom-Up Energy
Analysis System (BUENAS) model. Source: (Cabeza et
al., 2013a).
9.3 Mitigationtechnologyoptionsandpractices,behavioralaspects
Thissectionprovidesabroadoverviewatthestrategicandplanninglevelofthetechnological
options,designpractices,andbehaviouralchangesthatcanachievelargereductionsinbuilding
energyuse(50%90%innewbuildings,50%75%inexistingbuildings).Table9.2summarizesthe
energysavingsandCO2emissionreductionpotentialaccordingtothefactorsintroducedinSection
9.1basedonmaterialpresentedinthissectionorinreferencesgiven.Asynthesisofdocumented
examplesoflargereductionsinenergyuseachievedinreal,new,andretrofittedbuildingsina
varietyofdifferentclimates,andofcostsatthebuildinglevel,ispresentedinthissection,while
Section9.4reviewstheadditionalsavingsthatarepossibleatthecommunitylevelandtheir
associatedcosts,andSection9.6presentsasynthesisofstudiesofthecosts,theirtrends,andwith
integratedpotentialcalculationsatthenational,regional,andgloballevels.
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Table 9.2. Savings or off-site energy use reductions achievable in buildings for various end uses due
to on-site active solar energy systems, efficiency improvements, or behavioural changes.
EndUse OnsiteC DeviceEfficiency SystemEfficiency BehaviouralChange
FreeEnergy
Supply(1)
20%95%(2) (5)
Heating 30%(3)80%(4) 90% 10%30%(6)
Hotwater 50%100%(7) 60%(8)75%(9) 40%(10) 50%(11)

Cooling 50%80%(12) 50%(13)75%(14) 67%(15) 50%67%(16)
Cooking 030%(17) 2575%(18)80%(19) 50%(20)
Lighting 1030% 75%(21);83% 80%93%(24) 70%(25)
(22) (23)
90% ;99.83%
Refrigerators 40%(25a) 30%(26);50%(27)
Dishwashers 17+%(27a) 75%(28)
Clotheswashers 30%(28a) 60%85%(29)
Clothesdryers 50+%(29a) 10%15%(30)
100%(31)
Officecomputers& 40%(31a)
monitors
Generalelectricalloads 10%120%(32)
(1)
Notes: Only active solar energy systems. Higher percentage contributions achievable if loads are first reduced
through application of device, system, and behavioural efficiencies. Passive solar heating, cooling, ventilation,
(2)
and daylighting are considered under Systemic Efficiency. Space heating. Lower value representative of combi-
systems in Europe; upper value is best solar district heating systems with seasonal underground thermal energy
storage, after a 5-year spinup (SAIC, 2013). (3) Replacement of 75% efficient furnace/boiler with 95% efficient unit
(e.g., condensing natural gas boilers).(4) Replacement of 80% efficient furnace or boiler with ground-source heat
pump with a seasonal COP for space heating of 4 (from ground-source heat pumps in well-insulated new
buildings in Germany (DEE, 2011).(5) Reduction from a representative cold-climate heating energy intensity of 150
2 2 6)
kWh/m /yr to 15 kWh/m /yr (Passive House standard, Section 9.3.2).( Typical value; 2C cooler thermostat
setting at heating season. Absolute savings is smaller but relative savings is larger the better the thermal
envelope of the building (see also Section 9.3.9).(7) Water heaters. 5080% of residential hot water needs
supplied in Sydney, Australia and Germany (Harvey, 2007), while upper limit of 100% is conceivable in hot desert
regions. (8) Replacement of a 60% efficient with a 95% efficient water heater (typical of condensing and
(9) (0)
modulating wall-hung natural gas heaters). Table 9.4. Elimination of standby and distribution heat losses in
residential buildings (typically accounting for 30% water-heating energy use in North America ((Harvey, 2007)
(1)
through use of point-of-use on- demand water heaters. Shorter showers, switch from bathing to showering, and
other hot-water-conserving behavior.(2) Air conditioning and dehumidification. Range for systems from central to
(3)
Southern Europe with a relatively large solar collector area in relation to the cooling load ((Harvey, 2007).
Replacement of air conditioners having a COP of 3 (typical in North America) with others with a COP of 6
(4)
(Japanese units); Table 9.4. Replacement of North American units with units incorporating all potential efficiency
(5)
improvements; Table 9.4. Reduction (even elimination) of cooling loads through better building orientation &
(6)
envelopes, provision for passive cooling, and reduction of internal heat gains (Harvey, 2007). Section 9.3.9.
(7)
Fans during tolerable brief periods eliminating cooling equipment in moderately hot climates. Cooking range,
(8) (9
various ovens. Range pertains to various kinds of ovens; Table 9.4. Replacement of 10%15% with 60%
(20)
efficient (traditional biomass) cookstoves (Rawat et al., 2010). Same recipe with different cooking practices;
(2)
Table 9.4 / Section 9.3.9. Replacement of 1017 lm/W incandescent lamps with 5070 lm/W compact
fluorescent (Harvey, 2010).(22) Replacement of 15 lm/W incandescent lamps with (year 2030) LEDs, 100160
(23)
lm/W (McNeil et al., 2005; US DOE, 2006). Replacement of 0.25 lm/W kerosene lamps ((Fouquet and Pearson,
(24)
2006) with future 150 lm/W LEDs. Reduction from average US office lighting energy intensity of the existing
2 2 (25)
stock of 73 kWh/m /yr (Harvey, 2013) to 515 kWh/m /yr state-of-art systems (Harvey, 2013). Turning off not
(25a) (26) 3 3
needed lights (6000 hours/yr out of 8760 hours/yr). Table 9.4 12.5 ft vs 18.5 ft (350 litres, 350 kWh/yr vs
3
520 litres, 500 kWh/yr) refrigerator-freezers or 18.5 vs 30.5 ft (860 litres, 700 kWh/yr) (Harvey, 2010).
(27) (27a) (28)
Elimination of a second (beer) fridge. Table 9.4 Fully loaded operation versus typical part-load operation
(28a)
(Table 9.4). by 2030 (Table 9.4). (29) Cold compared to hot water washing, based on relative contribution of
water heating to total clothes washer energy use for the best US&EU models (Harvey, 2010).(29a) Table 9.4.(30)
Operation at full load rather than at one-third to half load (Smith, 1997).(31)Air drying inside when there is no space
heating requirement, or outside. (31a) Table 9.4. 32)Fraction of on-site electricity demand typically generated by on-
site PV with low demand kept low through electricity-efficiency measures.
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9.3.1 KeypointsfromAR4
TheAR4Chapter6onBuildings(Levineetal.,2007)containsanextensivediscussionofthewide
rangeoftechniquesanddesignstoreduceenergyuseinnewbuildings.Asystemicapproachismore
relevanttoenergyusethanefficienciesofindividualdevices(pumps,motors,fans,heaters,chillers,
etc.)efficiencies,asarerelatednetinvestmentcostsavingsusuallyseveraltimeshigher(Levineet
al.,2007;Harvey,2008).IDPallowsforthesystemicapproach,whichoptimizesbuildingperformance
iteratively,andinvolvesalldesignteammembersfromthestart(Montanyaetal.,2009;Popeand
Tardiff,2011).However,theconventionalprocessofdesigningandconstructingabuildingandits
systemsislargelylinear,inwhichdesignelementsandsystemcomponentsarespecified,built,and
installedwithoutconsiderationofoptimizationopportunitiesinthefollowingdesignandbuilding
phases,thuslosingkeyopportunitiesfortheoptimizationofwholebuildingsassystems(Lewis,2004).
AsdiscussedinAR4,essentialstepsinthedesignoflowenergybuildingsare:(1)buildingorientation,
thermalmass,andshape;(2)highperformanceenvelopespecification;(3)maximizationofpassive
features(daylighting,heating,cooling,andventilation);(4)efficientsystemsmeetingremaining
loads;(5)highestpossibleefficienciesandadequatesizingofindividualenergyusingdevices;and(6)
propercommissioningofsystemsanddevices.Costsavingscansubstantiallyoffsetadditionalhigh
performanceenvelopeandhigherefficiencyequipmentcosts,ofaround3550%comparedto
standardpracticesofnewcommercialbuildings(or5080%withmoreadvancedapproaches).
Retrofitscanroutinelyachieve2570%savingsintotalenergyuse(Levineetal.,2007;Harvey,2009).
9.3.2 TechnologicaldevelopmentssinceAR4
SinceAR4,therehavebeenimportantperformanceimprovementsandcostreductionsinmany
relevanttechnologies,andfurthersignificantimprovementsareexpected.Examplesinclude(1)
daylightingandelectriclighting(DuboisandBlomsterberg,2011);(2)householdappliances(Bansalet
al.,2011);(3)insulationmaterials(Baetensetal.,2011;Korjenicetal.,2011;Jelle,2011);(4)heat
pumps(Chuaetal.,2010);(5)indirectevaporativecoolingtoreplacechillersindryclimates(Jiangand
Xie,2010);(6)fuelcells(ItoandOtsuka,2011);(7)advancesindigitalbuildingautomationand
controlsystems(NBI,2011);and(8)smartmetersandgridsasameansofreducingpeakdemandand
accommodatingintermittentrenewableelectricitysources(Catania,2012).Manyofthesemeasures
canindividuallyreducetherelevantspecificenergyusebyhalformore.Inadditiontothenew
technologies,practitionershavealsoincreasinglyappliedmoreestablishedtechnologyand
knowledgebothinnewbuildingconstructionandintheexistingbuildingretrofits.Thesepractices
havebeendriveninpartbytargeteddemonstrationprogrammesinanumberofcountries.They
havebeenaccompaniedbyaprogressivestrengtheningoftheenergyprovisionsofbuildingcodesin
manycountries,aswellasbyplansforsignificantfurthertighteninginthenearfuture(seealso
Section9.10).InthefollowingsectionswereviewtheliteraturepublishedlargelysinceAR4
concerningtheenergyintensityoflowenergynewbuildingsandofdeepretrofitsofexisting
buildings.
9.3.3 ExemplaryNewBuildings
Thissectionpresentsanoverviewoftheenergyperformanceandincrementalcostofexemplary
buildingsfromaroundtheworld,basedonthedetailedcompilationofhighperformancebuildings
presentedinHarvey(2013).Themetricsofinterestaretheonsiteenergyintensityannualenergy
usepersquaremeterofbuildingfloorarea(kWh/m2/yr)forthoseenergyuses(heating,cooling,
ventilation,andlighting)thatnaturallyincreasewiththebuildingfloorarea,andenergyuseper
personforthoseenergyusessuchasservicehotwater,consumerelectronics,appliances,and
officeequipmentthatnaturallyincreasewithpopulationorthesizeoftheworkforce.
9.3.3.1 Energyintensityofnewhighperformancebuildings
TheenergyperformanceofnewbuildingshaveimprovedconsiderablysinceAR4,asdemonstratedin
Table9.3,whichsummarizesthespecificenergyconsumptionforfloorareadrivenfinalenergyuses
byclimatetypeorregion.
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Table 9.3. Typical and current best case specific energy consumption (kWh/m2/yr) for building loads
directly related to floor area (Harvey, 2013).
EndUse Climate Residential Commercial
Region
Advanced Typical Advanced Typical
Heating Cold 1530 60200 1530 75250
Heating Moderate 1020 40100 1030 40100
Cooling Moderate 05 010 015 2040
Cooling Hotdry 010 1020 010 2050
Cooling Hothumid 315 1030 1530 50150
Ventilation All 48 08 020 1050
Lighting All 24 310 520 3080
Notes: Lighting energy intensity for residential buildings is based on typical modern intensities times a factor of 0.30.4 to
account for an eventual transition to LED lighting. Definitions here for climate regions for heating: Cold_> 3000 HDD; Moderate
10003000 HDD. Similarly for cooling: moderate < 750 CDD; hot-dry > 750 CDD; hot-humid > 750 CDD. HDD = heating degree
days (K-day) and CCD = cooling-degree days (K-day). Energy intensity ranges for commercial buildings exclude hospitals and
research laboratories.
Anumberofvoluntarystandardsforheatingenergyusehavebeendevelopedinvariouscountries
forresidentialbuildings(seeTable1inHarvey,2013).Themoststringentofstandardswithregardto
heatingrequirementsisthePassiveHousestandard,whichprescribesaheatingload(assuminga
uniformindoortemperatureof20C)ofnomorethan15kWh/m2/yrirrespectiveoftheclimate.It
typicallyentailsahighperformancethermalenvelopecombinedwithmechanicalventilationwith
heatrecoverytoensurehighindoorairquality.Approximately57,000buildingscompliedwiththis
standardin31Europeancountriesin2012,covering25.15millionsquaremetres(Feist,2012)with
examplesasfarnorthasHelsinki,withsignificantlymorethatmeetorexceedthestandardbuthave
notbeencertifiedduetothehighercostofcertification.AsseenfromTable9.3,thisstandard
representsafactorof612reductioninheatingloadinmildclimates(suchasSouthernEurope)and
uptoafactorof30reductionincoldclimateregionswithminimalinsulationrequirements.Where
buildingsarenotcurrentlyheatedtocomfortabletemperatures,adoptionofahighperformance
envelopecanaidinachievingcomfortableconditionswhilestillreducingheatingenergyusein
absoluteterms.
Coolingenergyuseisgrowingrapidlyinmanyregionswhere,withproperattentiontouseful
componentsofvernaculardesigncombinedwithmodernpassivedesignprinciples,mechanicalair
conditioningwouldnotbeneeded.Thisuseincludesregionsthathaveastrongdiurnaltemperature
variation(whereacombinationofexternalinsulation,exposedinteriorthermalmass,andnight
ventilationcanmaintaincomfortableconditions),orastrongseasonaltemperaturevariation(sothat
thegroundcanbeusedtocoolincomingventilationair)orwhicharedry,therebypermitting
evaporativecoolingorhybridevaporative/mechanicalcoolingstrategiestobeimplemented.
CombininginsulationlevelsthatmeetthePassiveHousestandardforheatdemandinSouthern
Europewiththeabovestrategies,heatingloadscanbereducedbyafactorof612(from100200
kWh/m2/yrto1015kWh/m2/yr)andcoolingloadsbyafactorof10(from<30kWh/m2/yrto<3
kWh/m2/yr)(Schneidersetal.,2009).Withgooddesign,comfortableconditionscanbemaintained
80%ofthetime(andcloserto100%ofthetimeiffansareused)withoutmechanicalcoolingin
relativelyhotandhumidregionssuchasSouthernChina(Jietal.,2009),Vietnam(Nguyenetal.,
2011),Brazil(Grigolettietal.,2008;Andreasietal.,2010;Candidoetal.,2011),andthetropics
(Lenoiretal.,2011).
Incommercialbuildings,specificenergyconsumptionofmodernofficeandretailbuildingsare
typically200500kWh/m2/yrincludingallenduses,whereasadvancedbuildingshavefrequently
achievedlessthan100kWh/m2/yrinclimatesrangingfromcoldtohotandhumid.ThePassive
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Housestandardforheatinghasbeenachievedinawiderangeofdifferenttypesofcommercial
buildingsinEurope.Sensiblecoolingloads(energythatmustberemovedfrom,e.g.,theairinsidea
building)cantypicallybereducedbyatleastafactoroffourcomparedtorecentnewbuildings
throughmeasurestoreducecoolingloads(oftenbyafactorof24)andthroughmoreefficient
systemsinmeetingreducedloads(oftenafactoroftwo).Dehumidificationenergyuseisless
amenabletoreductionbutcanbemetthroughsolarpowereddesiccantdehumidificationwith
minimalnonsolarenergyrequirements.Advancedlightingsystemsthatincludedaylightingwith
appropriatecontrolsandsensors,andefficientelectriclightingsystems(layout,ballasts,luminaires)
typicallyachieveafactoroftworeductioninenergyintensitycomparedtotypicalnewsystems
(DuboisandBlomsterberg,2011).
9.3.3.2 Monitoringandcommissioningofnewandexistingbuildings
CommissioningistheprocessofsystematicallycheckingthatallcomponentsofbuildingHVAC
(Heating,VentilationandAirConditioning)andlightingsystemshavebeeninstalledproperlyand
operatecorrectly.Itoftenidentifiesproblemsthat,unlesscorrected,increaseenergyuseby20%or
more,butisoftennotdone(Pietteetal.,2001).Advancedbuildingcontrolsystemsareakeyto
obtainingverylowenergyintensitiesincommercialbuildings.Itroutinelytakesoveroneyearor
moretoadjustthecontrolsystemssothattheydelivertheexpectedsavings(Jacobsonetal.,2011)
throughdetailedmonitoringofenergyuseoncethebuildingisoccupied.Wagneretal.(2007)givean
examplewheremonitoringofanaturallyventilatedandpassivelycooledbankbuildinginFrankfurt,
Germanyleadtoareductioninprimaryenergyintensityfromabout200kWh/m2/yrduringthefirst
yearofoperationto150kWh/m2/yrduringthethirdyear(withapredictedimprovementto110
kWh/m2/yrduringthefourthyear).Postconstructionevaluationalsoprovidesopportunitiesfor
improvingthedesignandconstructionofsubsequentbuildings(Wingfieldetal.,2011).
9.3.3.3 Zeroenergy/carbonandenergyplusbuildings
Netzeroenergybuildings(NZEBs)refertobuildingswithonsiterenewableenergysystems(suchPV,
windturbines,orsolarthermal)that,overtheyear,generateasmuchenergyasisconsumedbythe
building.NZEBshavevaryingdefinitionsaroundtheworld,butthesetypicallyrefertoanetbalance
ofonsiteenergy,orintermsofanetbalanceofprimaryenergyassociatedwithfuelsusedbythe
buildingandavoidedthroughthenetexportofelectricitytothepowergrid(Marszaletal.,2011).
SpaceheatingandservicehotwaterhasbeensuppliedinNZEBseitherthroughheatpumps
(supplementedwithelectricresistanceheatingonrareoccasions),biomassboilers,orfossilfuel
poweredboilers,furnaces,orcogeneration.(Musalletal.,2010)identifyalmost300netzeroor
almostnetzeroenergybuildingsconstructedworldwide(bothcommercialandresidential.There
havealsobeensomeNZEretrofitsofexistingbuildings.Severaljurisdictionshaveadoptedlegislation
requiringsomeportionof,orall,newbuildingstobeNZEBsbyspecifictimesinthefuture(Kapsalaki
andLeal,2011).
AnextensionoftheNZEBconceptisthePositiveEnergyBuildingConcept(havingnetenergy
production)(Stylianou,2011;Kolokotsaetal.,2011).IssuesrelatedtoNZEBsinclude(1)the
feasibilityofNZEBs;(2)minimizingthecostofattaininganNZEB,wherefeasible;(3)thecostofa
leastcostNZEBincomparisonwiththecostofsupplyingabuildingsresidualenergyneeds(after
implementingenergyefficiencymeasures)fromoffsiterenewableenergysources;(4)the
sustainabilityofNZEBs;(5)lifecycleenergyuse;and(6)impactonenergyuseofalternativeusesor
treatmentsofroofs.
TocreateaNZEBatminimalcostrequiresimplementingenergysavingmeasuresinthebuildingin
orderofincreasingcostuptothepointwherethenextenergysavingsmeasurewouldcostmore
thanthecostofonsiterenewableenergysystems.InapproximatelyonethirdofNZEBsworldwide,
thereductioninenergyusecomparedtolocalconventionalbuildingsisabout60%(Musalletal.,
2010).Attainingnetzeroenergyuseiseasiestinbuildingswithalargeroofarea(tohostPVarrays)in
relationtothebuildingsenergydemand,soarequirementthatbuildingsbeNZEBwillplacealimit
21of103
ontheachievableheightandthereforeonurbandensity.InAbuDhabi,forexample,NZEBispossible
inofficebuildingsofuptofivestoriesifinternalheatgainsandlightingandHVACloadsare
aggressivelyreduced(Phillipsetal.,2009).
9.3.3.4 Incrementalcostoflowenergybuildings
Alargenumberofpublishedstudiesontheincrementalcostsofspecificlowenergybuildingsare
reviewedinHarvey(2013).Summaryconclusionsfromthisreview,alongwithkeystudiesunderlying
theconclusions,aregivenhere,withTable9.4presentingasmallselectiontoillustratesomeofthe
mainfindings.
Intheresidentialsector,severalstudiesindicateanincrementalcostofachievingthePassiveHouse
standardintherangeof616%oftheconstructioncost(about66265USD2010/m2)ascomparedto
standardconstruction.AvarietyoflocationsintheUnitedStates,showadditionalcostsofhouses
thatachieve3476%reductioninenergyuseofabout30163USD2010/m2thisexcludessolarPVfor
bothsavingsandcosts(Parker,2009).TheextracostofmeetingtheAdvancedthermalenvelope
standardintheUK,whichreducesheatingenergyuseby44%relativetothe2006regulations,has
beenestimatedat79%(about66265USD2010/m2)relativetoadesignthemeetsthe2006
mandatoryregulationswhichhavesincebeenstrengthened(DavisLangdonandElementEnergy,
2011).
Severalcoldclimatestudiesindicatethatifnosimplificationoftheheatingsystemispossibleasa
resultofreducingheatingrequirements,thentheoptimal(leastlifecyclecost,excluding
environmentalexternalities)levelofheatingenergysavingscomparedtorecentcodecompliant
buildingsisabout2050%(Andersonetal.,2006;Hasanetal.,2008;KerrandKosar,2011;Kurnitski
etal.,2011).However,thereareseveralwaysinwhichcostscanbereduced:(1)ifthereference
buildinghasseparatemechanicalventilationandhydronicheating,thenthehydronicheatingsystem
canbeeliminatedoratleastgreatlysimplifiedinhousesmeetingthePassiveHousestandard(Feist
andSchnieders,2009);(2)perimeterheatingunitsorheatingventscanbeeliminatedwiththeuseof
sufficientlyinsulatedwindows,therebyreducingplumbingorductworkcosts(HarveyandSiddal,
2008);(3)thebuildingshapecanbesimplified(reducingthesurfaceareatovolumeratio),which
bothreducesconstructioncostsandmakesiteasiertoreachanygivenlowenergystandard
(Treberspurgetal.,2010);and(4)inPassiveHouses(whereheatingcostisnegligiblysmall),
individualmeteringunitsinmultiunitresidentialbuildingscouldbeeliminated(Behr,2009).Aswell,
itcanbeexpectedthatcostswilldecreasewithincreasingexperienceandlargescale
implementationonthepartofthedesignandconstructionindustries.Forresidentialbuildingsin
regionswherecoolingratherthanheatingisthedominateenergyuse,thekeytolowcostand
emissionsistoachievedesignsthatcanmaintaincomfortableindoortemperatureswhilepermitting
eliminationofmechanicalcoolingsystems.
Availablestudies(suchasinTable9.4.)indicatethattheincrementalcostoflowenergybuildingsin
thecommercialsectorislessthanintheresidentialsector,duetothegreateropportunitiesfor
simplificationoftheHVACsystem,andthatitispossibleforlowenergycommercialbuildingstocost
lessthanconventionalbuildings.Inparticular,thereareanumberofexamplesofeducationaland
smallofficebuildingsthathavebeenbuilttothePassiveHousestandardatnoadditionalcost
comparedtosimilarconventionalorlessstringentlylowenergylocalbuildings(Anwyl,2011;Pearson,
2011)TheResearchSupportFacilitiesBuilding(RSF)attheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory
(NREL)inGolden,Coloradoachieveda67%reductioninenergyuse(excludingthesolarPVoffset)at
zeroextracostfortheefficiencymeasures,asthedesignteamwascontractuallyobligedtodelivera
lowenergybuildingatnoextracost(Torcellinietal.,2010).TorcelliniandPless(2012)presentmany
opportunitiesforcostsavingssuchthatlowenergybuildingscanoftenbedeliveredatnoextracost.
Otherexamplesoflowenergybuildings(5060%savingsrelativetostandardsatthetime)thatcost
lessthanconventionalbuildingsaregiveninMcDonell(2003)andIFE(2005).NewBuildingsInstitute
(2012)reportsexamplesofnetzeroenergybuildingsthatcostnomorethanconventionalbuildings.
Evenwhenlowenergybuildingscostmore,theincrementalcostsareoftensmallenoughthatthey
22of103
canbepaidbackinenergycostsavingswithinafewyearsorless(Harvey,2013).Thekeysto
deliveringlowenergybuildingsatzeroorlittleadditionalcostarethroughimplementationofthe
integrateddesignprocess(describedinSection9.3.1)andthedesignbidbuildprocess.Vaidyaetal.
(2009)discusshowthetraditional,lineardesignprocessleadstomissedopportunitiesforenergy
savingsandcostreduction,oftenleadingtotherejectionofhighlyattractiveenergysavings
measures.
Table 9.4. Summary of estimates for extra investment cost required for selected very low-/zero-energy
buildings.
Case Location Type Energy Extrainvestmentcosts CCE References
performance
2
Passivehouse Central New Passivehouse 58%(143225USD2010/m ) (Bretzke,2005;
Projects Europe standard Schniedersand
Hermelink,2006)
2 2
5passivehouses Belgium New 62kWh/m /yr 16%(252USD2010/m ) (Audenaertetal.,
total 2008)
2
Passivehouse Vienna New Passivehouse 5%(69USD2010/m ) (Mahdaviand
apartmentblock standard Doppelbauer,2010)
12verylowornet United New 0.070.12USD2010/kWh(CCE) (Parker,2009)
zeroenergyhouses States
2
10buildingsinthe Germany New <100kWh/m /yr Comparabletothedifference (Wagneretal.,
SolarBauprogramme primaryenergy incostsbetweenalternative 2004)
vs.300600 standardsforinteriorfinishes
conventional
2
Highperformance Vancouver New 100kWh/m /yr 10%lowercost (McDonell,2003)
commercialbuildings totalvs.180
conventional
Officesand Montreal New 2.30% (Lemireand
laboratory,Concordia Charneux,2005)
University
WelshInformation Wales New Passivehouse Noextracostcomparedto (Pearson,2011)
andTechnologyAdult standard BREEAMExcellentstandard
LearningCentre
(CaolfanHyddgen)
2
Hypothetical6,000m LasVegas New 42%ofenergy USD2010 2,719 (Vaidyaetal.,2009)
officebuilding savings
2 2 2
10story,7,000m Denmark New 14kWh/m /yr 3.4%(115 USD2010/ m ) (Marszaland
residentialbuilding (heating)vs.45 Heiselberg,2009)
LeslieShaoMingSun California New NZEB 410%morebasedonhard (NBI,2011)
FieldStation,Stanford constructioncosts
University
HudsonValleyClean NewYork New NZEB 665USD2010/monthin (NBI,2011)
EnergyHeadquarters mortgagepaymentsbut
saves823USD2010/monthin
energycosts
IAMUOffice Ankeny,IA New NZEB None (NBI,2011)
EcoFlatsBuilding Portland, New NZEB None (NBI,2011)
OR
2 2
10story,7,000m Denmark New NZEB 24%(558USD2010/m ) (Marszaland
residentialbuilding Heiselberg,2009)
2
Torontotowers Toronto Retrofit 194/95% 259USD2010/m 0.052 (KesikandSaleff,
USD2010/kWh 2009)
2
Multifamilyhousing EU Retrofit 62150/52% 53124USD2010/m 0.0140.023 (Petersdorffetal.,
86% USD2010/kWh 2005)
2
Terracehousing EU Retrofit 97266/59%84% 90207USD2010/m 0.130.023 (Petersdorffetal.,
USD2010/kWh 2005)
2
Highrisehousing EU Retrofit 70%81% 2.55.8USD2010/m /yr 0.0180.028 (Waideetal.,2006)
USD2010/kWh
2
1950sMFH Germany Retrofit 82247/30%90% 48416USD2010/m 0.0230.065 (Galvin,2010)
USD2010/kWh
2
1925SFH Denmark Retrofit 120 217USD2010/m 0.071 (KraghandRose,
USD2010/kWh 2011)
2
1929MFH Germany Retrofit 140200/58% 167340USD2010/m 0.0600.088 (Hermelink,2009)
82% USD2010/kWh
2
19thcenturyflat UK Retrofit 192234/48% 305762USD2010/m 0.0680.140 (UnitedHouse,
59% USD2010/kWh 2009)
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9.3.4 Retrofitsofexistingbuildings
Asbuildingsareverylonglivedandalargeproportionofthetotalbuildingstockexistingtodaywill
stillexistin2050indevelopedcountries,retrofittingtheexistingstockiskeytoalowemission
buildingsector.
9.3.4.1 Energysavings
Numerouscasestudiesofindividualretrofitprojects(inwhichmeasures,savings,andcostsare
documented)arereviewedinHarvey(2013),butafewbroadgeneralizationscanbepresentedhere.
(1)Fordetachedsinglefamilyhomes,themostcomprehensiveretrofitpackageshaveachieved
reductionsintotalenergyuseby5075%;(2)inmultifamilyhousing(suchasapartmentblocks),a
numberofprojectshaveachievedreductionsinspaceheatingrequirementsby8090%,approaching,
inmanycases,thePassiveHousestandardfornewbuildings;(3)relativelymodestenvelope
upgradestomultifamilyhousingindevelopingcountriessuchasChinahaveachievedreductionsin
coolingenergyusebyaboutonethirdtoonehalf,andreductionsinheatingenergyusebytwo
thirds;(4)incommercialbuildings,savingsintotalHVACenergyuseachievedthroughupgradesto
equipmentandcontrolsystems,butwithoutchangingthebuildingenvelope,aretypicallyonthe
orderof2550%;(5)eventualrecladdingofbuildingfacadesespeciallywhentheexistingfaadeis
largelyglasswithahighsolarheatgaincoefficient,noexternalshading,andnoprovisionforpassive
ventilation,andcoolingoffersanopportunityforyetfurthersignificantsavingsinHVACenergy
use;and(6)lightingretrofitsofcommercialbuildingsintheearly2000stypicallyachieveda3060%
energysavings(BertoldiandCiugudeanu,2005).
9.3.4.2 Incrementalcost
Variousisolatedstudiesofindividualbuildingsandsystematicpilotprojectsinvolvingmanybuildings,
reviewedinHarvey(2013),indicatepotentials(withcomprehensiveinsulationandwindowupgrades,
airsealing,andimplementationofmechanicalventilationwithheatrecovery)reductionsinheating
energyrequirementsof5075%insinglefamilyhousingand5090%inmultifamilyhousingatcosts
ofabout100400USD2010/m2abovethatwhichwouldberequiredforaroutinerenovation.Fora
smallselectionofthesestudies,seeTable9.4.Inthecommercialsector,significantsavingscanoften
beachievedatverylowcostsimplythroughretrocommissioningofequipment.Mills(2011)
evaluatedthebenefitsofcommissioningandretrocommissioningforasampleof643buildings
acrosstheUnitedStatesandreportsa16%medianwholebuildingenergysavingsinCalifornia,with
ameanpaybacktimeof1.1years.Rdsjetal.(2010)showedthatamongthe60demonstration
projectsreviewed,theaverageprimaryenergydemandsavingswas76%,and13oftheprojects
reachedoralmostreachedthePassiveHousestandard.Althoughretrofitsgenerallyentailalarge
upfrontcost,theyalsogeneratelargeannualcostsavings,andsoareoftenattractivefromapurely
economicpointofview.KorytarovaandrgeVorsatz(2012)notethatshallowretrofitscanresultin
greaterlifecyclecoststhandeepretrofits.Mataetal.(2010)studied23retrofitmeasuresfor
buildingsinSwedenandreportasimpletechnicalpotentialforenergysavingsintheresidential
sectorof68%ofannualenergyuse.TheyestimatedacostperkWhsavedbetween0.09
USD2010/kWh(applianceupgrades)and+0.45USD2010/kWh(faaderetrofit).Pollyetal.(2011)
presentamethodfordeterminingoptimalresidentialenergyefficiencyretrofitpackagesinthe
UnitedStates,andidentifynearcostneutralpackagesofmeasuresprovidingbetween29%and48%
energysavingsacrosseightUSlocations.Lewis(2004)hascompiledinformationfromseveralstudies
inoldbuildingsinEuropeandindicatesthatthetotalandmarginalcostofconservedenergyboth
tendtoberelativelyuniformforsavingsofupto7080%,butincreasemarkedlyforsavingsof
greaterthan80%orforfinalheatingenergyintensitiesoflessthanabout40kWh/m2/yr.
24of103
Table 9.5. Potential savings in energy consumption by household appliances and equipment.
Item Savingspotential Reference
Televisions AverageenergyuseofunitssoldintheUnitedStates (largelyLCDs)was426 (Howardetal.,2012;
kWh/yrin2008and102kWh/yrin2012.Furtherreductions(3050%belowLCD Letschertetal.,2012)
TVs)areexpectedwithuseoforganicLEDbacklighting(likelycommercially
availableby2015).
Televisions EnergysavingsofbestavailableTVscomparedtomarketnormsare3245%in
Europe,4458%inNorthAmerica,and5560%inAustralia (Park,2013)
Computermonitors 70%reductioninonmodepowerdrawexpectedfrom2011to2015 (Parketal.,2013)
Computing Atleastafactorof10millionpotentialreduction intheenergyrequiredper (Koomeyetal.,2013)
computation(goingwellbeyondthesocalledFeynmanlimit).
Refrigeratorfreezerunits 40%minimumpotentialsavingscomparedtothebeststandards,27%savingsat (Bansaletal.,2011;
0.11USD2010/kWhCCE(CostsofConservedEnergy) McNeilandBojda,2012)
Cooking 50%savingspotential(inEurope),largelythroughmoreefficientcookingpractices (FechterandPorter,1979;
alone Oberascheretal.,2011)
Ovens 25%and45%potentialsavingsthroughadvancedtechnologyinnaturalgasand (Mugdal,2011;Bansalet
conventionalelectricovens,respectively,and75%formicrowaveovens al.,2011)
Dishwashers Typicallyonly4045%loaded,increasingenergyuseperplacesettingby7797% (Richter,2011)
for3dishwashersstudied
Dishwashers Currentinitiativetargets17%lesselectricity,35%lesswaterthanbestUSstandard (Bansaletal.,2011)
Clotheswashers Global28%potentialsavingsby2030relativetobusinessasusual (Letschertetal.,2012)
ClothesDryers FactoroftwodifferencebetweenbestandaverageunitsonthemarketinEurope (Werleetal.,2011)
(0.27kWh/kgvs0.59kWh/kg).Morethanafactorof2reductioningoingfrom
UnitedStatesaveragetoEuropeanheatpumpdryer(820kWh/yrvs380kWh/yr)
Standbyloads Potentialof<0.005Wforadaptersandchargers, <0.05forlargeappliances(zero (Matthews,2011),
inbothcases)(typicalmid2000sstandbypowerdraw:515W) (Harvey,2010)formid
2000sdata
Airconditioners COP(ameasureofefficiency)of2.53.5inEuropeandUnitedStates,5.06.5in (Waideetal.,2011)
Japan(impliesupto50%energysavings)
Airconditioners COPof4.26.8forairconditionerssuchthatthecostofsaving electricitydoesnot
exceedthelocalcostofelectricity,andapotentialCOPof7.310.2ifallavailable (Shahetal.,2013)
energysavingmeasuresweretobeimplemented(impliesa5075%savingsfora
givencoolingloadandoperatingpattern).
Ceilingfans 5057%energysavingspotential (Letschertetal.,2012;
Sathayeetal.,2013)
Packageofhousehold 60%lessenergyconsumptionbybestavailableequipmentcomparedtotypically (daGracaetal.,2012)

appliancesinPortugal usedequipment
Officecomputersand 40%savingsfromexistinglowtozerocostmeasuresonly (MercierandMorrefield,
monitors 2009)
Circulationpumpsfor 40%savingsfromprojectedenergyusein2020inEurope(relativetoabaseline (Bidstrup,2011)
hydronicheatingand withefficienciesasof2004)duetolegislatedstandardsalreadyinplace
cooling
Residentiallighting Efficacies(lm/W)(higherisbetter):standardincandescent,15;CFL,60;best (Letschertetal.,2012)
currentlyavailablewhitelightLEDs,100;currentlaboratoryLEDs,250
Residentialwaterusing 5080%reductioninwaterusebywatersavingfixturescomparedtoolderstandard (Harvey,2010)
fixtures fixtures
Residentialwaterheaters Typicalefficiencyfactor(EF)forgasandelectricwaterheatersintheUSA is0.67 (Letschertetal.,2012)
and0.8inEU,whilethemostefficientheatpumpwaterheatershaveEF=2.35and
anEFof3.0isforeseeable(factorof4improvement)
9.3.5 Appliances,consumerelectronics,officeequipment,andlighting
Residentialapplianceshavedramaticallyimprovedinefficiencyovertime,particularlyinOECD
countries(BarthelandGtz,2013;LabancaandPaolo,2013)duetopolicessuchasefficiency
standards,labels,andsubsidesandtechnologicalprogress.Improvementsarealsoappearingin
developingcountriessuchasChina(BarthelandGtz,2013)andlessdevelopedcountries,suchas
Ghana(AntwiAgyei,2013).Oldappliancesconsume650TWhworldwide,whichisalmost14%of
totalresidentialelectricityconsumption(BarthelandGtz,2013).
Table9.5summarizespotentialreductionsinunitenergybyhouseholdappliancesandequipment
throughimprovedtechnologies.Thesavingpotentialsidentifiedforindividualequipmentare
typically4050%.Indeed,energyusebythemostefficientappliancesavailabletodayisoften30
50%lessthanrequiredbystandards;theEuropeanA+++modelrefrigerator,forexample,consumes
50%lesselectricitythanthecurrentregulatedlevelintheEU(Letschertetal.,2013a),whilethe
mostefficienttelevisionsawardedundertheSuperefficientEquipmentandApplianceDeployment
25of103
(SEAD)initiativeuse3344%lesselectricitythansimilartelevisions(Ravietal.,2013).Aggregate
energyconsumptionbytheseitemsisexpectedtocontinuetogrowrapidlyasthetypesandnumber
ofequipmentproliferate,andownershipratesincreasewithwealth.Thiswilloccurunlessstandards
areusedtoinduceclosetothemaximumtechnicallyachievablereductioninunitenergy
requirements.Despiteprojectedlargeincreaseinthestockofdomesticappliances,especiallyin
developingcountries,totalapplianceenergyconsumptioncouldbereducedifthebestavailable
technologywereinstalled(BarthelandGtz,2013;Letschertetal.,2013b).Thiscouldyieldenergy
savingsof2600TWh/yrby2030betweentheEU,UnitedStates,ChinaandIndia(Letschertetal.,
2013a).Ultralowpowermicrocomputersinawidevarietyofappliancesandelectronicequipment
alsohavethepotentialtogreatlyreduceenergyusethroughbettercontrol(Koomeyetal.,2013).
Conversely,newtypesofelectronicequipmentforICT(e.g.,satellitereceivers,broadbandhome
gateways,etc.),broadbandandnetworkequipment,anddedicateddatacentrebuildingsare
predictedtoincreasetheirenergyconsumption(FettweisandZimmermann,2008;Bollaetal.,2011;
Bertoldi,2012).SolidStateLighting(SSL)isrevolutionizingthefieldoflighting.Inthelongterm,
inorganiclightemittingdiodes(LEDs)areexpectedtobecomethemostwidelyusedlightsources.
WhiteLEDshaveshownasteadygrowthinefficacyformorethanfifteenyears,withaveragevalues
of6570lm/W(SchppiandBogner,2013)andthebestproductsachieving100lm/W(Mouraetal.,
2013).LEDlightingwillsoonreachefficacylevelabovealltheothercommerciallyavailablelight
source(Amanetal.,2013),includinghighefficiencyfluorescentlamps.
9.3.6 Halocarbons
TheemissionsofFgases(seeChapter1Table1.1andChapter5.3.1)relatedtothebuildingsector
primarilyoriginatefromcooling/refrigerationandinsulationwithfoams.ThesectorsshareoftotalF
gasemissionsissubjecttohighvariationduetouncertainties,lackofdetailedreportingand
differencesinaccountingconventions.Thefollowingsectiondiscussestheroleofthebuildingssector
inFgasemissionsundertheseconstraints.
Fgasesareusedinbuildingsthroughseveraltypesofproductsandappliances,including
refrigeration,airconditioning,infoams(suchasforinsulation)asblowingagents,fireextinguishers,
andaerosols.TheresultingshareofthebuildingsectorinthetotalFgasemissions,similarlyto
indirectCO2emissionsfromelectricitygeneration,dependsontheirattribution.Inventories,suchas
EDGAR(JRC/PBL,2012),arerelatedtotheproductionandsalesofthesegasesanddiffering
accountingconventionsattributeemissionsbasedonthepointoftheiruse,emissions,orproduction
(UNEP,2011a;EEA,2013;USEPA,2013).IPCCemissioncategoriesprovidenumberstodifferent
sourcesofemissionbutdonotsystematicallyattributethesetosectors.Attributioncanbedone
usingaproductionorconsumptionperspective,renderingdifferentsectoralshares(seeChapter
5.2.3.3).Compoundingthisvariation,thereareuncertaintiesresultingfromthelackofattributionof
theuseofcertainemissioncategoriestodifferentsectorstheyareusedinanduncertaintiesin
reportedfiguresforthesameemissionsbydifferentsources.
AsaguidanceontheshareofFgasesinthebuildingsector,forexample,EDGAR(JRC/PBL,2012;
AnnexII.9)attributed12%ofdirectFgasemissionstothebuildingsectorin2010(JRC/PBL,2012;
AnnexII.9).Ofafurthershareof22.3%ofFgasemissions(21%fromHFCandSF6productionand
1.3%fromfoamblowing)asubstantialpartcanbeallocatedtothebuildingssector.Thegreatest
uncertaintyofattributionofIPCCcategoriestothebuildingssectoristheshareofRefrigerationand
AirConditioningEquipment(2F1a).Thistotalstouptoonethirdfortheshareof(directplusindirect)
buildingsinFgasemissions.
Asanotherproxy,EDGARestimatesthatHFCsrepresentthelargestshare(GWPadjusted)inthetotal
Fgasemissions,atabout76%oftotal2010Fgasemissions(JRC/PBL,2012).GlobalHFCemissions
arereportedtobe760MtCO2eqbyEdgar(JRC/PBL,2012);and1100MtCO2eqbytheUSEPA(2010).
Thesegasesareusedmostly(55%oftotalin2010)inrefrigerationandairconditioningequipmentin
homes,otherbuildingsandindustrialoperations(UNEP,2011a).
26of103
WhileFgasesrepresentasmallfractionofthecurrenttotalGHGemissionsaround2%(see
Chapter1.2andChapter5.2),theiremissionsareprojectedtogrowinthecomingdecades,mostly
duetoincreaseddemandforcoolingandbecausetheyaretheprimarysubstitutesforozone
depletingsubstances(USEPA,2013).
MeasurestoreducetheseemissionsincludethephaseoutofHFCsandminimisationoftheneedfor
mechanicalcoolingthroughhighperformancebuildings,asdiscussedinthefollowingsections.The
useofFgasesasanexpandingagentinpolyurethanefoamhasbeenbannedintheEUsince2008,
andby2005,85%ofproductionhadalreadybeenshiftedtohydrocarbons(havingamuchlower
GWP).InGermany,almostallnewrefrigeratorsusenaturalrefrigerants(isobutane,HC600a,and
propane,HC29),whichhavegreatpotentialtoreduceemissionsduringtheoperationandservicing
ofHFCcontainingequipment(McCulloch,2009;RhiemeierandHarnisch,2009).Theirusein
insulationmaterialssavesheatingandcoolingrelatedCO2emissionsandthustheiruseinthese
materialsstilltypicallyhasanetbenefittoGHGemissions,butalifecycleassessmentisrequiredto
determinetheneteffectonacasebycasebasis.
9.3.7 Avoidingmechanicalheating,cooling,andventilationsystems
Inmanypartsoftheworld,highperformancemechanicalcoolingsystemsarenotaffordable,
especiallythoseusedforresidentialhousing.Thegoal,thenistouseprinciplesoflowenergydesign
toprovidecomfortableconditionsasmuchofthetimeaspossible,therebyreducingthepressureto
laterinstallenergyintensivecoolingequipmentsuchasairconditioners.Theseprinciplesare
embeddedinvernaculardesignsthroughouttheworld,whichevolvedovercenturiesintheabsence
ofmechanicalheatingandcoolingsystems.Forexample,vernacularhousinginVietnam(Nguyenet
al.,2011)experiencedconditionswarmerthan31Conly6%ofthetime.Thenaturalandpassive
controlsystemoftraditionalhousinginKerala,Indiahasbeenshowntomaintainbedroom
temperaturesof2329Cevenasoutdoortemperaturesvaryfrom1736Conadiurnaltimescale
(Dilietal.,2010).Whiletheseexamplesshowthatvernaculararchitecturecanbeanenergyefficient
option,inordertopromotethetechnology,itisnecessarytoconsidertheculturalandconvenience
factorsandperceptionsconcerningmodernapproaches,aswellastheenvironmentalperformance,
thatinfluencethedecisiontoadoptorabandonvernacularapproaches(ForuzanmehrandVellinga,
2011).Insomecases,modernknowledgeandtechniquescanbeusedtoimprovevernaculardesigns.
9.3.8 Usesofbiomass
Biomassisthesinglelargestsourceofenergyforbuildingsattheglobalscale,anditplaysan
importantroleforspaceheating,productionofhotwater,andforcookinginmanydeveloping
countries.(IEA,2012d)Comparedtoopenfires,advancedbiomassstovesprovidefuelsavingsof30
60%andreduceindoorairpollutionlevelsby8090%formodelswithchimneys(rgeVorsatzetal.,
2012b).Forexample,inthestateofArunachalPradesh,India,advancedcookstoveswithan
efficiencyof60%,hasbeenusedinplaceoftraditionalcookstoveswithanefficiencyof68%(Rawat
etal.,2010).GasifierandbiogascookstoveshavealsoundergonemajordevelopmentssinceAR4.
9.3.9 Embodiedenergyandbuildingmaterialslifecycle
ResearchpublishedsinceAR4confirmsthatthetotallifecycleenergyuseoflowenergybuildingsis
lessthanthatofconventionalbuildings,inspiteofgenerallygreaterembodiedenergyinthe
materialsandenergyefficiencyfeatures(CitherletandDefaux,2007;GEA,2012).However,the
embodiedenergyandcarboninconstructionmaterialsisespeciallyimportantinregionswithhigh
constructionrates,andtheavailabilityofaffordablelowcarbon,lowenergymaterialsthatcanbe
partofhighperformancebuildingsdeterminesconstructionrelatedemissionssubstantiallyinrapidly
developingcountries(SartoriandHestnes,2007;KarlssonandMoshfegh,2007;Rameshetal.,2010).
Areviewoflifecycleassessment,lifecycleenergyanalysis,andmaterialflowanalysisinbuildings
(conventionalandtraditional)canbefoundin(Cabezaetal.,2013).Recentresearchindicatesthat
woodbasedwallsystemsentail1020%lessembodiedenergythantraditionalconcretesystems
(Uptonetal.,2008;SathreandGustavsson,2009)andthatconcreteframedbuildingsentailless
27of103
embodiedenergythansteelframedbuildings(Xingetal.,2008).Insulationmaterialsentailawide
rangeofembodiedenergyperunitvolume,andthetimerequiredtopaybacktheenergycostof
successiveincrementsinsulationthroughheatingenergysavingsincreasesasmoreinsulationis
added.However,thismarginalpaybacktimeislessthantheexpectedlifespanofinsulation(50years)
evenastheinsulationlevelisincreasedtothatrequiredtomeetthePassiveHousestandard(Harvey,
2007).Theembodiedenergyofbiomassbasedinsulationproductsisnotlowerthanthatofmany
nonbiomassinsulationproductswhentheenergyvalueofthebiomassfeedstockisaccountedfor,
butislessifanenergycreditcanbegivenforincinerationwithcogenerationofelectricityandheat,
assumingtheinsulationisextractedduringdemolitionofthebuildingattheendofitslife(Ardenteet
al.,2008).
9.3.10 Behaviouralandlifestyleimpacts
Chapter2discussesbehaviouralissuesinabroadsense.Therearesubstantialdifferencesinbuilding
energyuseintheworlddrivenlargelybybehaviourandculture.Factorsof3to10differencescanbe
foundworldwideinresidentialenergyuseforsimilardwellingswithsameoccupancyandcomfort
levels(Zhangetal.,2010),andupto10timesdifferenceinofficebuildingswithsameclimateand
samebuildingfunctionswithsimilarcomfortandhealthlevels(Battyetal.,1991;Zhaojianand
Qingpeng,2007;Zhangetal.,2010;Grinshpon,2011;Xiao,2011).Themajorcharacteristicsofthe
lowerenergyusebuildingsarewindowsthatcanbeopenedfornaturalventilation,parttime&part
spacecontrolofindoorenvironment(thermalandlighting),andvariablycontrollableindoorthermal
parameters(temperature,humidity,illuminationandfreshair).Thesearetraditionalapproachesto
obtainsuitableindoorclimateandthermalcomfort.Howeversincethespreadofglobalizedsupplyof
commercialthermalconditioningheating/coolingsolutionstendtowardsfullycontrolledindoor
climatesthroughmechanicsystemsandthesetypicallyresultinasignificantlyincreasedenergy
demand(TUBESRC,2009).Analternativedevelopmentpathwaytotheubiquitoususeoffully
conditionedspacesbyautomaticallyoperatedmechanicalsystemsistointegratekeyelementsofthe
traditionallifestyleinbuildings,inparticulartheparttimeandpartspaceindoorclimate
conditioning,passivedesignforindoorthermalandlightingandtakemechanicsystemonlyforthe
remainingneedswhenthepassiveapproachescannotmeetthecomfortdemand.Byrelative
innovationtechnologiestowardsfurtherimprovementsinindoorservicelevels,suchpathwayscan
reachtheenergyuselevelsbelow30kWhe/m2/yronworldaverage(TUBESRC,2009;Murakamietal.,
2009),asopposedtothe3050kWhe/m2/yrachievablethroughpresentlytakenbuilding
developmentpathwaysutilizingfullyautomatizedfullthermalconditioning(Murakamietal.,2009;
Yoshinoetal.,2011).
Behaviourandlocalculturalfactorscandrivebasicenergyusepractices,suchashowpeopleand
organizationsadjusttheirthermostatsduringdifferenttimesoftheyear.Duringthecoolingseason,
increasingthethermostatsettingfrom24Cto28Cwillreduceannualcoolingenergyusebymore
thanafactorofthreeforatypicalofficebuildinginZurichandbymorethanafactoroftwoinRome
(Jaboyedoffetal.,2004),andbyafactoroftwotothreeifthethermostatsettingisincreasedfrom
23Cto27CfornighttimeairconditioningofbedroomsinapartmentsinHongKong(LinandDeng,
2004).Thermostatsettingsarealsoinfluencedbydresscodesandculturalexpectationstowards
attires,andthusmajorenergysavingscanbeachievedthroughchangesinattirestandards,for
exampleJapansCoolBizinitiativetorelaxcertainbusinessdresscodestoallowhigherthermostat
settings(GEA,2011).
Behaviourandlifestylearecrucialdriversofbuildingenergyuseinmorecomplexways,too.Figure
9.9showstheelectricityuseforsummercoolinginapartmentsofthesamebuilding(occupiedby
householdsofsimilaraffluenceandsize)inBeijing(ZhaojianandQingpeng,2007),rangingfrom0.5
to14.2kWh/m2/yr.Theusedifferenceismainlycausedbydifferentoperatinghoursofthesplitair
conditionerunits.Openingwindowsduringsummerandrelyingonnaturalventilationcanreducethe
coolingloadwhilemaintainingindoorairqualityinmostwarmclimatecountries(Battyetal.,1991),
comparedtosolelyrelyingonmechanicalventilation(Yoshinoetal.,2011).Buildingswithhigh
performancecentralizedairconditioningcanusemuchmoreenergythandecentralizedsplitunits
28of103
thatoperateparttimeandforpartialspacecooling,withafactorof9foundby(Zhaojianand
Qingpeng,2007;Murakamietal.,2009),asalsoillustratedinFigure9.10.Therearesimilarfindings
forotherenergyenduses,suchasclothesdryers(thedominantpracticeinlaunderingintheUnited
States)consumingabout6001000kWh/yr,whiledryingnaturallyisdominantindevelopingand
eveninmanydevelopedcountries(Grinshpon,2011).

Figure 9.9. Annual measured electricity per unit of floor space for cooling in an apartment block in
Beijing (Peng et al., 2012).
Figure 9.10. Annual total electricity use per unit of floor space of buildings on a university campus in
Beijing, China, 2006 (Peng et al., 2012).
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Figure 9.11. Annual unit area electricity use per unit of floor space of buildings on a university campus
in Philadelphia, USA, 2006 (Peng et al., 2012).
Quantitativemodelingoftheimpactoffuturelifestylechangeonenergydemandshowsthat,in
developedcountrieswhereenergyservicelevelsarealreadyhigh,lifestylechangecanproduce
substantialenergyusereductions.IntheUnitedStates,forexample,theshorttermbehavioural
changepotentialisestimatedtobeatleast20%(Dietzetal.,2009)andoverlongperiodsoftime,
muchmoresubstantialreductions(typically50%)arepossible,evenindevelopedcountrieswith
relativelylowconsumptions(Fujinoetal.,2008;Eyreetal.,2010).Similarabsolutereductionsarenot
possibleindevelopingcountrieswhereenergyservicesdemandsneedtogrowtosatisfy
developmentneeds.However,therateofgrowthcanbereducedbylowerconsumptionlifestyles
(Weietal.,2007;Suklaetal.,2008).Formoreonconsumption,seealsoSection4.4.
Energyuseofbuildingsofsimilarfunctionsandoccupanciescanvarybyafactorof210,depending
oncultureandbehaviour.Forinstance,Figure9.10andFigure9.11showtheelectricityusageofthe
HVACsystemattwouniversitycampuses(inPhiladelphiaandBeijing)withsimilarclimatesand
functions.Thedifferencesarisefrom:operatinghoursoflightingandventilation(24h/dayvs.
12h/day);fullmechanicalventilationinallseasonsversusnaturalventilationformostoftheyear;
anddistrictcoolingwithselectivereheatingversusseasonaldecentralizedairconditioning.When
thediversityofusersactivitiesistakenintoaccount,differenttechnologiesmaybeneededtosatisfy
theenergyservicedemand.Therefore,buildingsandtheirenergyinfrastructureneedtobedesigned,
built,andusedtakingintoaccountculture,norms,andoccupantbehaviour.Oneuniversalstandard
ofhighefficiencybasedoncertainculturalactivitiesmayincreasetheenergyusageinbuildingswith
otherculturalbackgrounds,raisingcostsandemissionswithoutimprovingthelivingstandards.This
isdemonstratedinarecentcasestudyof10lowenergydemonstrationbuildingsinChinabuiltin
internationalcollaborations.Mostofthesedemonstrationbuildingsusemoreenergyinoperation
thanordinarybuildingswiththesamefunctionsandservicelevels(Xiao,2011).Althoughseveral
energysavingtechnologieshavebeenapplied,occupantbehaviourswerealsorestrictedby,for
instance,usingtechniquesonlysuitableforfulltimeandfullspacecooling.
9.4 Infrastructureandsystemicperspectives
9.4.1 Urbanformandenergysupplyinfrastructure
Landuseplanninginfluencesgreenhousegasemissionsinseveralways,includingthroughtheenergy
consumptionofbuildings.Morecompacturbanformtendstoreduceconsumptionduetolowerper
capitafloorareas,reducedbuildingsurfacetovolumeratio,increasedshading,andmore
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opportunitiesfordistrictheatingandcoolingsystems(rgeVorsatzetal.,2012a).Greater
compactnessoftenhastradeoffsinregionswithsignificantcoolingdemand,asittendstoincrease
theurbanheatislandeffect.However,theoverallimpactofincreasedcompactnessistoreduceGHG
emissions.Broaderissuesoftheimplicationsofurbanformandlanduseplanningforemissionsare
discussedinChapter12.5.Energyusingactivitiesinbuildingsandtheirenergysupplynetworksco
evolve.Whilethestructureofthebuildingitselfiskeytotheamountofenergyconsumed,the
energysupplynetworkslargelydeterminetheenergyvectorused,andthereforethecarbonintensity
ofsupply.Changingfuelsandenergysupplyinfrastructuretobuildingswillbeneededtodeliverlarge
emissionsreductionsevenwiththemajordemandreductionsoutlinedinSection9.3.Thissection
thereforefocusesontheinteractionofbuildingswiththeenergyinfrastructure,anditsimplications
foruseoflowercarbonfuels.
9.4.1.1 DistrictHeatingandcoolingnetworks
Heatingandcoolingnetworksfacilitatemitigationwheretheyallowtheuseofhigherefficiency
systemsortheuseofwasteheatorlowercarbonfuels(e.g.,solarheatandbiomass)thancanbe
usedcosteffectivelyatthescaleoftheindividualbuilding.Highefficiencydistributedenergysystems,
suchasgasenginesandsolidoxidefuelcellcogeneration,generateheatandelectricitymore
efficientlythanthecombinationofcentralizedpowerplantsandheatingboilers,whereheatcanbe
usedeffectively.Districtenergysystemsdifferbetweenclimatezones.Largescaledistrictheating
systemsofcoldclimatecitiespredominantlyprovidespaceheatinganddomestichotwater.There
arealsosomeexamplesthatutilizenonfossilheatsources,forexamplebiomassandwaste
incineration(Holmgren,2006).Despitetheirenergysavingbenefits,fossilfueldistrictheating
systemscannotalonedeliververylowcarbonbuildings.Inverylowenergybuildings,hotwateristhe
predominantheatingload,andthehighcapitalandmaintenancecostsofdistrictheating
infrastructuremaybeuneconomic(ThyholtandHestnes,2008;PerssonandWerner,2011).The
literatureisthereforepresentlydividedontheusefulnessofdistrictheatingtoserveverylowenergy
buildings.Inregionswithcoldwintersandhotsummers,districtenergysystemscandeliverboth
heatingandcooling,usuallyatthecityblockscale,andprimarilytocommercialbuildings.Energy
savingsof30%canbeachievedusingtrigeneration,loadlevelling,diurnalthermalstorage,highly
efficientrefrigeration,andadvancedmanagement(Nagotaetal.,2008).Largerbenefitsarepossible
byusingwasteheatfromincinerationplants(Shimodaetal.,1998)andheatorcoldfromwater
sourceheatpumps(Songetal.,2007).
9.4.1.2 Electricityinfrastructureinteractions
Universalaccesstoelectricityremainsakeydevelopmentgoalindevelopingcountries.Thecapacity,
andthereforecost,ofelectricityinfrastructureneededtosupplyanygivenlevelofelectricityservices
dependsontheefficiencyofelectricityuse.Electricityisthedominantenergysourceforcoolingand
appliances,butenergyuseforheatingisdominatedbydirectuseoffossilfuelsinmostcountries.
Electrificationofheatingcanthereforebeamitigationmeasure,dependingonthelevelsof
electricitydecarbonizationanditsenduseefficiency.Heatpumpsmayfacilitatethisbenefitasthey
allowelectrificationtobeamitigationtechnologyatmuchlowerlevelsofelectricitydecarbonization
(Lowe,2007).Groundsourceheatpumpsalreadyhaveahighmarketshareinsomecountrieswith
lowcostelectricityandrelativelyefficientbuildings(IEAHPG,2010).Thereisagrowingmarketfor
lowcostairsourceheatpumpsinmidlatitudecountries(Caietal.,2009;HowdenChapmanetal.,
2009;Singhetal.,2010a).Inmanycasestheattractionsarethattherearenotpreexistingwhole
househeatingsystemsandthatairsourceheatpumpscanprovidebothheatingandcooling.A
reviewofscenariostudiesindicatesheatingelectrificationmayhaveakeyroleindecarbonization
(Sugiyama,2012),withheatpumpsusuallyassumedtobethepreferredheatingtechnology(IEA,
2010a).Thiswouldimplyamajortechnologyshiftfromdirectcombustionoffossilfuelsforbuilding
heating.Electricityuse,evenathighefficiency,willincreasewinterpeakdemand(CockroftandKelly,
2006)withimplicationsforgenerationanddistributioncapacitythathavenotbeenfullyassessed;
therearechallengesinretrofittingtobuildingsnotdesignedforheatingwithlowtemperature
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systems(Fawcett,2011),andtheeconomicsofahighcapitalcostheatingsystem,suchasaheat
pump,inalowenergybuildingareproblematic.Theliteratureisinconclusiveontheroleandscaleof
electrificationofheatingasamitigationoption,althoughitislikelytobelocationdependent.
However,significantenergydemandreductionislikelytobecriticaltofacilitateuniversal
electrification(Eyre,2011),andthereforetransitionpathwayswithlimitedefficiencyimprovement
andhighelectrificationareimplausible.Electricityinfrastructureinbuildingswillneedincreasinglyto
useinformationtechnologyinsmartgridstoprovideconsumerinformationandenabledemand
responsetoassistloadbalancing(seeChapter7.12.3).
9.4.1.3 ThermalEnergyStorage
Thermalenergystoragecanusediurnaltemperaturevariationstoimproveloadfactors,and
thereforereduceheatingandcoolingsystemsize,whichwillbeparticularlyimportantifheatingis
electrified.Thermalstoragetechnologiescouldalsobeimportantinregionswithelectricitysystems
usinghighlevelsofintermittentrenewableenergy.Theuseofstorageinabuildingcansmooth
temperaturefluctuationandcanbeimplementedbysensibleheat(e.g.,changingbuildingenvelope
temperature),orbystoringlatentheatusingiceorphasechangematerials,ineitherpassiveor
activesystems(Cabezaetal.,2011).Boththermochemicalenergystorage(FreireGonzlez,2010)
andundergroundthermalenergystorage(UTES)withgroundsourceheatpumps(GSHP)(Sanneret
al.,2003)arebeingstudiedforseasonalenergystorageinbuildingsordistrictheatingandcooling
networks,althoughUTESandGSHParealreadyusedforshorttermstorage(Paksoyetal.,2009).
9.4.2 PathDependenciesandlockin
Buildingsandtheirenergysupplyinfrastructurearesomeofthelongestlivedcomponentsofthe
economy.Buildingsconstructedandretrofittedinthenextfewyearstodecadeswilldetermine
emissionsformanydecades,withoutmajoropportunitiesforfurtherchange.Thereforethesectoris
particularlypronetolockin,duetofavouringincrementalchange(Bergmanetal.,2008),
traditionallylowlevelsofinnovation(Rohracher,2001),andhighinertia(BrownandVergragt,2008).
32of103

Figure 9.12. Final building heating and cooling energy use scenarios from 2005 to 2050 from the
Global Energy Assessment (GEA), organized by eleven regions (rge-Vorsatz et al., 2012a). Notes:
Green bars, indicated by arrows with numbers (relative to 2005 values), represent the opportunities
through the GEA state-of-the-art scenario, while the yellow bars with black numbers show the size of
the lock-in risk (difference between the sub-optimal and state-of-the-art scenario). Percent figures are
relative to 2005 values. For region definitions see Annex II.2.4.
Whenamajorretrofitornewconstructiontakesplace,stateoftheartperformancelevelsdiscussed
inSection9.3arerequiredtoavoidlockinginsuboptimaloutcomes.Sunkcostsofdistrictheating,
inparticular,canbeadisincentivetoinvestmentsinverylowenergybuildings.Withoutthehighest
achievableperformancelevels,globalbuildingenergyusewillrise(rgeVorsatzetal.,2012a).This
impliesthatamajorreductioninbuildingenergyusewillnottakeplacewithoutstrongpolicyefforts,
andparticularlytheuseofbuildingcodesthatrequireadoptionoftheambitiousperformancelevels
setoutinSection9.3assoonaspossible.Recentresearch(rgeVorsatzetal.,2012a)findsthatby
2050thesizeofthelockinriskisequaltoalmost80%of2005globalbuildingheatingandcooling
finalenergyuse(seeFigure9.12).Thisisthegapbetweenascenarioinwhichtodaysbestcost
effectivepracticesinnewconstructionandretrofitsbecomestandardafteratransitionalperiod,and
ascenarioinwhichlevelsofbuildingenergyperformancearechangedonlytotodaysbestpolicy
ambitions.Thisalertsusthatwhiletherearegooddevelopmentsinbuildingenergyefficiency
policies,significantlymoreadvancescanandneedtobemadeifambitiousclimategoalsaretobe
reached,otherwisesignificantemissionscanbelockedinthatwillnotbepossibletomitigatefor
decades.Thesizeofthelockinriskvariessignificantlybyregion:e.g.,inSouthEastAsia(including
India)thelockinriskisover200%of2005finalheatingandcoolingenergyuse.
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9.5 Climatechangefeedbackandinteractionwithadaptation
Buildingsaresensitivetoclimatechange,whichinfluencesenergydemandanditsprofile.Asclimate
warms,coolingdemandincreasesandheatingdemanddecreases(Dayetal.,2009;IsaacandVan
Vuuren,2009;HuntandWatkiss,2011),whilepassivecoolingapproachesbecomelesseffective
(Artmannetal.,2008;ChowandLevermore,2010).Undera+3.7Cscenarioby2100,theworldwide
reductioninheatingenergydemandduetoclimatechangemayreach34%in2100,whilecooling
demandmayincreaseby70%+;netenergydemandcouldreach6%by2050and+5%by2100;with
significantregionaldifferences,e.g.,20%+absolutereductionsinheatingdemandintemperate
CanadaandRussia;coolingincreasingby50%+inwarmerregionsandevenhigherincreasesincold
regions(IsaacandVanVuuren,2009).Otherregionalandnationalstudies(Mansuretal.,2008;van
Ruijvenetal.,2011;Wanetal.,2011;Xuetal.,2012)revealthesamegeneraltendencies,with
energyconsumptioninbuildingsshiftingfromfossilfuelstoelectricityandaffectingpeakloads(Isaac
andVanVuuren,2009;HuntandWatkiss,2011),especiallyinwarmerregions(Aebischeretal.,2007).
Emissionsimplicationsofthisshiftarerelatedtothefuelsandtechnologieslocallyusedforheatand
powergeneration:aglobalreferencescenariofromIsaacandVanVuuren(2009b)showsanet
increaseinresidentialemissionsof0.3+GtC(1.1+GtCO2eq)by2100.
Thereisawiderangeofsensitivitiesbutalsomanyopportunitiestorespondtochangingclimatic
conditionsinbuildings:modifieddesigngoalsandengineeringspecificationsincreaseresilience
(Gerdesetal.;Pykeetal.,2012).Thereisnoconsensusondefinitionsofclimateadaptivebuildings,
butseveralaimsincludeminimizingenergyconsumptionforoperation,mitigatingGHGemissions,
providingadaptivecapacityandresiliencetothebuildingstock,reducingcostsformaintaining
comfort,minimizingthevulnerabilityofoccupantstoextremeweatherconditions,andreducingrisks
ofdisruptiontoenergysupplyandaddressingfuelpoverty(Roafetal.,2009),(Atkinsonetal.,2009).
Adaptationandmitigationeffectsmaybedifferentbydevelopmentandurbanizationlevel,climate
conditionsandbuildinginfrastructure.Contemporarystrategiesforadaptingbuildingstoclimate
changestilloftenemphasizeincreasingthephysicalresilienceofbuildingstructureandfabricto
extremeweatherandclimaticevents,butthiscanleadtodecreasedfunctionaladaptabilityand
increasedembodiedenergyandassociatedGHGemissions.Increasedextremesinlocalweather
patternscanleadtosuboptimalperformanceofbuildingsthatweredesignedtoprovidethermal
comfortpassivelyusingprinciplesofbioclimaticdesign.Insuchcircumstances,increased
uncertaintyoverfutureweatherpatternsmayencouragedemandformechanicalspaceheating
and/orcoolingregardlessoftheclimatezone.
Therearealsoseveralopportunitiesforheatislandreduction,airqualityimprovement,andradiation
management(geoengineering)throughbuildingroofsandpavements,whichconstituteover60%of
mosturbansurfacesandwithcobenefitssuchasimprovedairquality(Iharaetal.,2008;Taha,2008).
Simulationsestimatereductionsinurbantemperaturesbyupto0.7K(Campraetal.,2008;Akbariet
al.,2008;Olesonetal.,2010;MillsteinandMenon,2011).Akbarietal.,(2008)andAkbarietal.,
(2012)estimatedthatchangingthesolarreflectanceofadarkroof(0.15)toanagedwhiteroof(0.55)
resultsinaonetimeoffsetof1to2.5tCO2per10m2ofroofareathroughenhancedreflection.
GlobalCO2onetimeoffsetpotentialsfromcoolroofsandpavementsamountto78GtCO2(Menonet
al.,2010).Increasingthealbedoofa1m2areaby0.01resultsinaglobaltemperaturereductionof
3x1015Kandoffsetsemissionof7kgCO2(Akbarietal.,2012).
9.6 Costsandpotentials
9.6.1 Summaryofliteratureonaggregatedmitigationpotentialsbykeyidentity
Thechapter'searliersectionshavedemonstratedthatthereisabroadportfolioofdifferent
technologiesandpracticesavailabletocutbuildingrelatedemissionssignificantly.However,
whereasthesepotentialsarelargeatanindividualproduct/buildinglevel,animportantquestionisto
determinewhatportionofthestocktheyapplyto,andwhattheoverallpotentialisifweconsider
34of103
theapplicability,feasibility,andreplacementdynamics,togetherwithotherconstraints(Wadaetal.,
2012).Figure9.13andthecorrespondingTable9.6synthesizetheliteratureonaselectionof
regionalstudiesonpotentialsthroughdifferenttypesofmeasures,aggregatedtostocksofthe
correspondingproducts/buildingsattheregionallevel.Thestudiesareorganizedbythefourkey
identitiesdiscussedatthebeginningofthechapter,translatingintothefourkeymitigationstrategies
thatapplytothissectori.e.,carbonefficiency,technologicalefficiency,systemicefficiency,and
energyservicedemandreduction.However,aspointedoutearlier,itisoftennotpossibleto
preciselydistinguishonecategoryfromtheother,especiallygiventhedifferentcategorizationsinthe
studies,thereforethebinningshouldbetreatedasindicativeonly.Thepotentialsillustratedinthe
tableandfigureareusuallygivenforfinalenergyuse(ifnotspecifiedotherwise)andaremostly
presentedasapercentageoftherespectivebaselineenergy,specifiedintheoriginalsource.The
figuredemonstratesthatthehighpotentialsattheindividualproduct/buildingleveltranslateinto
relativelyhighpotentialsalsoatstockaggregatedlevels:mitigationorenergysavingpotentialsoften
gobeyond30%toeven60%ofthebaselineenergyuse/emissionofthestockthemeasuresapplyto.
Thefigurealsoatteststhateachofthefourkeymitigationstrategiesrelevanttobuildingscanbring
verylargereductions,althoughsystemicefficiencyseemstobringhigherresultsthanother
strategies,andenergyservicedemandreductionhasbeensofarestimatedtobringthemostmodest
resultsfromamongthesestrategies,althoughstudieslessoftenassesstheseoptionssystematically.
Figure 9.13. Regional studies on aggregated mitigation potentials grouped by key identity (i.e., main
mitigation strategy). Note: Values correspond to the percentage reduction as compared to baseline, if
available, otherwise to base year, for the cases as numbered in Table 9.6.
Theefficiencyandcoststudiespresentedhererepresentasinglesnapshotintime,implyingthatas
thispotentialisbeingcapturedbypoliciesormeasures,theremainingpotentialdwindles.Thishas
notbeenreinforcedbyexperienceandresearch.Analyseshaveshownthattechnological
improvementkeepsreplenishingthepotentialforefficiencyimprovement,sothatthepotentialfor
costeffectiveenergyefficiencyimprovementhasnotbeendiminishinginspiteofcontinuously
improvingstandards(NAS,2010).TheNationalAcademyofScience(NAS)study(NAS,2010)ofthe
energysavingspotentialsofenergyefficiencytechnologiesandprogrammesacrossallsectorsinthe
UnitedStatesnotethat[s]tudiesoftechnicalandeconomicenergysavingspotentialgenerally
captureenergyefficiencypotentialatasinglepointintimebasedontechnologiesthatareavailable
atthetimeastudyisconducted.Butnewefficiencymeasurescontinuetobedevelopedandtoadd
tothelongtermefficiencypotential.Thesenewefficiencyopportunitiescontinuetooffer
substantialcosteffectiveadditionalenergysavingspotentialsafterpreviouspotentialshavebeen
capturedsothattheoveralltechnicalpotentialhasbeenfoundtoremainatthesameorderof
magnitudefordecades(NAS,2010).
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Table 9.6. Summary of literature on aggregated mitigation potentials in buildings categorized by key mitigation strategies
Base %changeto %changeto
Reg Descriptionofmitigationmeasures/package(year) Enduses Type Sector
endyrs baseline baseyr
CARBONEFFICIENCY
2010
EU(1) Additionalsolardomestichotwatersystem HW T RS 20%,pr.e
20
AU(2),AT(3) 46%,35%,
CA(4),DK(5) 31%,32%,
FL(6),DE(7) 19%,30%,
IT(8),JP(9) SolarelectricitygenerationthroughbuildingsrooftopPVinstallations elect T BS yearly 45%,15%,
NL(10),ES(11) 32%,48%,
SE(12),CH(13) 20%,35%,
UK(14),US(15) 31%,58%
IL(16) Allavailablerooftopsareaccountedforproducingsolarenergy El. T BS yearly 32%
AnoptimalimplementationoftheSpanishTechnicalBuildingCodeandusageof17%ofthe
ES(17) W TE BS 2009 68.4%
availableroofsurfacearea
TECHNICALEFFICIENCY
SignificanteffortstofullyexploitthepotentialforEE,allcosteffectiveRESforheatand 2007
World(18) ALL T BS 29%
electricitygeneration,productionofbiofuels,EEequipment 50
Thecosteffectiveenergysavingtargets,assumedforeachenduseonthebasisofseveral 2010
US(19) ALL TE BS 68%
earlierstudies,areachievedby2030 30
Widediffusionofheatpumpsandotherenergyconservationmeasures,e.g.,replacementof 2005
NO(20) ALL T BS 9.50% 21%
windows,additionalinsulation,heatrecoveryetc. 35
Buildingenergycodeandbuildingenergylabelingarewidelyimplemented,therequirements
TH(21) ALL T CS by2030 51%
towardsNZEBsaregraduallystrengthenedby2030
NorthernEurope Improvementsinlamp,ballast,luminairetechnology,useoftask/ambientlighting,reductionof
L T CS 2011 50%
(22) illuminancelevels,switchontime,manualdimming,switchoffoccupancysensors,daylighting
ImplementationofTechnicalCodeofBuildingsforSpain,usinginsulationandconstruction 2005
Cat,ES(23) H/C T BS 29%
solutionsthatensurethedesiredthermalcoefficients 15
Implementationoftheenvelopecodesrequiringthatthebuildingenvelopeiswellinsulated
BH(24) C T CS 1year 25%
andefficientglazingisused
Fabricimprovements,HVACchanges(includingventilationheatrecovery),lightingand 2005
UK(25) ALL T CS 50%(CO2)
applianceimprovementsandrenewableenergygeneration 30
BestPracticeScenario(BPS)examinedthepotentialofanachievementofinternationalbest 2009
CN(26) APPL T RS,CS 35%
practiceefficiencyinbroadenergyusetoday 30
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SYSTEMICEFFICIENCY
2005
World(27) Today'scosteffectivebestpracticeintegrateddesign&retrofitbecomesastandard H/C TE BS 70% 30%
50
ThegoalofhalvingglobalenergyrelatedCO2emissionsby2050(comparedto2005levels);the 2007
World(28) ALL TE BS 34%
deploymentofexistingandnewlowcarbontechnologies 50
Highperformancethermalenvelope,maximizedtheuseofpassivesolarenergyforheating, 2005
World(29) ALL T BS 48%
ventilationanddaylighting,EEequipmentandsystems 50
Advancedtechnologies,infrastructuralimprovementsandsomedisplacementofexistingstock,
2010
US(30) configurationsofthebuiltenvironmentthatreduceenergyrequirementsformobility,butnot ALL TE BS 59% 40%
50
yetcommerciallyavailable
Acceleratedrenovationratesupto4%;100%refurbishmentathighstandards;in201020%of 2004
EU27(31) ALL T RS 66% 71%
thenewbuiltbuildingsareathighEEstandard;100%by2025 30
EnergyconsumptionforHinnewRSwillbereducedby30%in2005,2010,2015and2020; 2005
DK(32) H TE RS 82%
renovatedRSareupgradedtotheenergyrequirementsapplicableforthenewones 50
CompliancewiththestandardcomparabletotheMINERGIEP5,thePassiveHouseandthe 2000
H/W T RS 60% 68%
standardAofthe2000WattsocietywithlowcarbonsystemsforHandW 50
CH(33)
2000
Buildingscomplywithzeroenergystandard(noheatingdemand) H/W T RS 65% 72%
50
Theproportionofveryhighenergyperformancedwellingsincreasesbyupto30%ofthetotal 2010 25%(pr.e)
DE(34) H/W T BS
stockin2020;theshareofnearlyzeroandZEBsmakesup6% 20 50%(CO2)
ENERGYSERVICEDEMANDREDUCTION
EEretrofits,informationacceleration,learningbydoingandtheincreaseinenergyprice.Some 2008
FR(35) H T BS 21% 58%
barrierstoEE,sufficiencyinHconsumptionareovercome 50
Influenceoffivelifestylefactorsreflectingconsumersbehavioralpatternsonresidential
US(36) El. T RS 2005 40%
electricityconsumptionwasanalyzed
LT(37) Changeinlifestyletowardssavingenergyandreducingwaste ALL T RS 1year 44%
16%
(existing
US(38) Commissioningasenergysavingmeasureappliedin643commercialbuildings ALL T CS 1year buildings)
13%(new
buildings)
Notes: 1) The Table presents the potential of final energy use reduction (if another is not specified) compared to the baseline and/or base year for the end-uses given in the column 3 and for the
sectors indicated in the column 5. 2) H space heating; C space cooling; W hot water; L lighting; APPL appliances; ALL all end-uses; BS the whole building sector; RS residential
sector; CS commercial sector; T technical; T-E techno-economical; EE energy efficiency; RES renewable energy sources; HVAC heating, ventilation and air-conditioning; ZEB zero-
energy building; pr.e. primary energy; EL. electricity; red. reduction; approximately approximately.3) Reg. region, WO world, N.Eu Northern Europe, Cat Catalonia.
*References: 1 - (Anisimova, 2011), 215 - (IEA, 2002), 16 - (Yue and Huang, 2011), 17 - (Vardimon, 2011), 18 - (Izquierdo et al., 2011), 19 - (GPI, 2010), 20 - (Brown et al., 2008a), 21 - (Sartori et
al., 2009), 22 - (Pantong et al., 2011), 23 - (Dubois and Blomsterberg, 2011), 24 - (Garrido-Soriano et al., 2012), 25 - (Radhi, 2009), 26 - (Taylor et al., 2010), 27 - (Zhou et al., 2011a), 28 - (rge-
Vorsatz et al., 2012c), 29 (IEA, 2010b), 30 -(Harvey, 2010), 31 - (Laitner et al., 2012) , 32 -(Eichhammer et al., 2009), 33 -(Tommerup and Svendsen, 2006), 34 -(Chan and Yeung, 2005), 35 - (Siller
et al., 2007), 36 - (Schimschar et al., 2011), 37 - (Giraudet et al., 2012), 38 - (Sanquist et al., 2012), 39 -(Streimikiene and Volochovic, 2011), 40 (Mills, 2011).
37of103
9.6.2 Overviewofoptionspecificcostsandpotentials
Sincethebuildingsectorcomprisesaverylargenumberofenduses,ineachofthesemanydifferent
typesofequipmentbeingused,andforeachofwhichseveralmitigationalternativesexist,givinga
comprehensiveaccountofcostsandpotentialsofeach,orevenmany,isoutofthescopeofthis
report.Thenexttwosectionsfocusonselectedkeymitigationoptionsanddiscusstheircostsand
potentialsinmoredepth.Section9.6.2focusesonwholebuildingapproachesfornewand
retrofittedbuildings,whiletheSection9.6.3analyzesaselectionofimportanttechnologies
systematically.Finally,Section9.6.5discussesthesensitivityofthefindingsfromtheearliersection
tovariousassumptionsandinputs.
9.6.2.1 Costsofveryhighperformancenewconstruction
Thereisincreasingevidencethatveryhighperformancenewconstructioncanbeachievedatlittle,
oroccasionallyevenatnegative,additionalcosts(rgeVorsatz,Eyre,Graham,Harvey,etal.,2012;
Harvey,2013andSection9.3).Therearevariousmethodologiesappliedtounderstandand
demonstratethecosteffectivenessofwholebuildingnewconstructionandretrofit,including
projectbasedincrementalcostaccounting,populationstudies,andcomparativemodelling(Kats,
2009).Forcommercialbuildings,thereareinstanceswherethesemethodshavefoundnoadditional
costinmeetingstandardsashighasthePassiveHousestandard;seeSection9.3,and(Lang
Consulting,2013),orwherethecostoflowenergybuildingshasbeenlessthanthatofbuildings
meetinglocalenergycodes.SurveysofdeliveredfullbuildingconstructioncostsintheUnitedStates
andAustraliacomparingconventionalandgreenbuildingsainvarietyofcircumstanceshavebeen
consistentlyunabletodetectasignificantdifferenceindeliveredpricebetweenthesetwo
categories.Rather,theyfindawiderangeofvariationcostsirrespectiveofperformance
features(DavisLangdon,2007;UrbanGreenCouncilandLangdon,2009).Collectively,thesestudies,
alongwithevidencein9.3andthetablesinthissectionindicatethatsignificantimprovementsin
designandoperationalperformancecanbeachievedtodayundertherightcircumstancesat
relativelyloworpotentiallynoincreases,orevendecreases,intotalcost.
ThecostandfeasibilityofachievingvariousZNEBdefinitionshaveshownthatsuchgoalsarerarely
costeffectivebyconventionalstandards;however,specificcircumstances,operationalgoals,and
incentivescanmakethemfeasible(Boehland,2008;Meacham,2009).Table9.4inSection9.3.3
highlightsselectedpublishedestimatesoftheincrementalcostofnetzeroenergybuildings;even
forthesebuildings,therearecaseswherethereappearstohavebeenlittleadditionalcost(e.g.,
NRELLaboratory).ThecostsofnewZNEBsareheavilydependentonsupportingpolicies,suchasnet
meteringandfeedintariffs,andanticipatedholdingtimes,beyondthefactorsdescribedbelowfor
allbuildings.Unlikeresidentialbuildings,highperformancecommercialbuildingscancostlessto
buildthanstandardbuildings,evenwithoutsimplifyingthedesign,becausethecostsavingsfromthe
downsizinginmechanicalandelectricityequipmentthatispossiblewithahighperformance
envelopecanoffsettheextracostoftheenvelope.Inothercases,thenetincrementaldesignand
constructioncostcanbereducedtothepointthatthetimerequiredtopaybacktheinitial
investmentthroughoperatingcostsavingsisquiteattractive.
Figure9.14showstheresultingcosteffectivenessfromasetofdocumentedbestpracticesfrom
differentregionsmeasuredincostofconservedenergy(CCE).Thefiguredemonstrateswellthat,
despitetheverybroadtypicalvariationinconstructioncostsduetodifferentdesignsandnon
energyrelatedextrainvestments,highperformancenewconstructioncanbehighlycosteffective.
SeveralexamplesconfirmingthepointestablishedinSection9.3thatevennegativeCCEscanbe
achievedforcommercialbuildingsi.e.,thattheprojectisprofitablealreadyattheinvestment
stage,orthatthehighperformancebuildingcostslessthantheconventionalone.Costeffectiveness
requiresthattheinvestmentsareoptimizedwithregardtotheadditionalvs.reduced(e.g.,
simplifiedornoheatingsystem,ductwork,etc.)investmentrequirementsandnononenergyrelated
luxuryconstructioninvestmentsareincluded(see9.3forfurtherdiscussionofensuringcost
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effectivenessattheindividualbuildinglevel).Itisalsoimportanttonotethatveryhighperformance
constructionisstillatthedemonstration/earlydeploymentlevelinmanyjurisdictions,andfurther
costreductionsarelikelytooccur(see,e.g.,GEA,2012).Figure9.14alsoshowsthathighersavings
comparedtothebaselinecomeatatypicallylowercostperunitenergysavingi.e.,deeper
reductionsfromthebaselinetendtoincreasethecostefficiency.
Althoughconvertingenergysavingcoststomitigationcostsintroducesmanyproblems,especially
duetothechallengesofemissionfactors,Figure9.15displaystheassociatedmitigationcost
estimatesofselectedpointsfromFigure9.14toillustratepotentialtrendsincostofconserved
carbon(CCC).TheresultisahugerangeofCCC,whichextendsfromthreedigitnegativecoststo
tripledigitpositivecostspertonofCO2emissionsavoided.

Figure 9.14. Cost of conserved energy as a function of energy performance improvement (kWh/m2/yr
difference to baseline) to reach Passive House or more stringent performance levels, for new
construction by different building types and climate zones in Europe1
1ThedataforthecasestudiespresentedinFigure9.14Figure9.16arecomingfromvarioussources
(Hermelink,2006;Galvin,2010;ETK,2011;GardinerandTheobald,2011;Nieminen,2011;EnergyInstitute
Vorarlberg,2013;PHI,2013;Harvey,2013).Adiscountrateof3%andthelifetimeof30yearsforretrofitand
40yearsfornewbuildingshavebeenassumed.
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Figure 9.15. Cost of conserved carbon as a Figure 9.16. Cost of conserved energy as a function
function of specific energy consumption for selected of energy saving in percent for European retrofitted
best practices shown in Figure 9.14. buildings by building type and climate zones.
9.6.2.2 Costsofdeepretrofits
Studieshaverepeatedlyindicatedtheimportantdistinctionbetweenconventionalshallow
retrofits,oftenreducingenergyusebyonly1030%,andaggressivedeepretrofits(i.e.,50%or
morerelativetobaselineconditions,especiallywhenconsideringthelockineffect.Korytarovaand
rgeVorsatz(2012)evaluatedarangeofexistingbuildingtypestocharacterizedifferentlevelsof
potentialenergysavingsunderdifferentcircumstances.Theydescribethepotentialriskforshallow
retrofitstoresultinlowerlevelsofenergyefficiencyandhighermediumtermmitigationcostswhen
comparedtoperformancebasedpoliciespromotingdeepretrofits.Figure9.16presentsthecostsof
conservedenergyrelatedtoaselectionofdocumentedretrofitbestpractices,especiallyatthe
higherendofthesavingsaxis.Thefigureshowsthatthereissufficientevidencethatdeepretrofits
canbecosteffectiveinmanyclimates,buildingtypes,andcultures.Thefigurefurthershowsthat,
whilethecostrangeexpandswithverylargesavings,therearemanyexamplesthatindicatethat
deepretrofitsdonotnecessarilyneedtocostmoreinspecificcosttermsthantheshallowretrofits
i.e.,theircosteffectivenesscanremainatequallyattractivelevelsforbestpractices.Retrofits
gettingcloserto100%savingsstarttogetmoreexpensive,mainlyduetotheintroductionof
presentlymoreexpensivePVandotherbuildingintegratedrenewableenergygeneration
technologies.
9.6.3 Assessmentofkeyfactorsinfluencingrobustnessandsensitivityofcostsand
potentials
Costsandpotentialsofthemeasuresdescribedinprevioussectionsdependheavilyonvarious
factorsandsignificantlyinfluencethecosteffectivenessoftheinvestments.Whilethese
investmentsvarywiththetypesofmeasures,afewcommonfactorscanbeidentified.
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Forthecosteffectivenessofenergysavinginvestments,thestateofefficiencyofthebaselineis
perhapsthemostimportantdeterminingfactor.Forinstance,apassivehouserepresentsafactor
of1020improvementwhencomparedtoaveragebuildingstocks,butonlyafractionofthiswhen
comparedto,forinstance,upcomingGermannewbuildingcodes.Figure9.16andFigure9.17both
varythebaselinefortherespectivemeasure.
CCEfiguresandthus'profitability,fundamentallydependonthediscountrateandassumedlifetime
ofthemeasure,andCCCdependsfurtheronthebackgroundemissionfactorandenergyprice.
Figure9.17illustrates,forinstance,themajorrolediscountrate,emissionfactor,andenergyprice
playwhendeterminingcostsandcosteffectiveness.Beyondthewellquantifiableinfluences,further
parametersthatcontributetothevariabilityofthecostmetricsareclimatetype,geographicregion,
buildingtype,etc.
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Figure 9.17. Sensitivity analysis of the key parameters: Top: CCC for new buildings in response to
the variation in fuel price; middle: CCE for retrofit buildings in response to the variation in discount rate
for selected data points shown inFigure 9.14, Figure 9.15 and Figure 9.16; bottom: CCC for new
buildings in response to the variation in emission factor.
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9.7 Cobenefits,risksandspillovers
9.7.1 Overview
Mitigationmeasuresdependonandinteractwithavarietyoffactorsthatrelatetobroader
economic,social,and/orenvironmentalobjectivesthatdrivepolicychoices.Positivesideeffectsare
deemedcobenefits;ifadverseanduncertain,theyimplyrisks.2Potentialcobenefitsandadverse
sideeffectsofalternativemitigationmeasures(Sections9.7.19.7.3),associatedtechnicalrisks,and
uncertainties,aswellastheirpublicperception(seetherelevantdiscussioninSections9.3.10and
9.8),cansignificantlyaffectinvestmentdecisions,individualbehaviour,andpolicymakingpriority
settings.Table9.7providesanoverviewofthepotentialcobenefitsandadversesideeffectsofthe
mitigationmeasuresassessedinaccordancewithsustainabledevelopmentpillars(Chapter4).The
extenttowhichcobenefitsandadversesideeffectswillmaterializeinpractice,aswellastheirnet
effectonsocialwelfare,differgreatlyacrossregions.Itisstronglydependentonlocalcircumstances,
implementationpractices,scale,andpaceofmeasuresdeployment(seeSection6.6).rgeVorsatz
etal.(2009)andGEA(2012),synthesizingpreviousresearchefforts(MillsandRosenfeld,
1996),recognizethefollowingfivemajorcategoriesofcobenefitsattributedtomitigationactionsin
buildings:(1)healtheffects(e.g.,reducedmortalityandmorbidityfromimprovedindoorand
outdoorairquality),(2)ecologicaleffects(e.g.,reducedimpactsonecosystemsduetotheimproved
outdoorenvironment),(3)economiceffects(e.g.,decreasedenergybillpayments,employment
creation,improvedenergysecurity,improvedproductivity),(4)serviceprovisionbenefits(e.g.,
reductionofenergylossesduringenergytransmissionanddistribution),and(5)socialeffects(e.g.,
fuelpovertyalleviation,increasedcomfortduetobettercontrolofindoorconditionsandthe
reductionofoutdoornoise,increasedsafety).Takentogether,theGEA(2012)foundthatonlythe
monetizablecobenefitsassociatedwithenergyefficiencyinbuildingsareatleasttwicetheresulting
operatingcostsavings.
Ontheotherhand,somerisksarealsoassociatedwiththeimplementationofmitigationactionsin
buildingsemanatingmostlyfromlimitedenergyaccessandfuelpovertyissuesduetohigher
investmentand(sometimes)operatingcosts,healthrisksinsuboptimallydesignedairtightbuildings,
andtheuseofsubstandardenergyefficiencytechnologiesincludingrisksofprematurefailure.The
IPCCAR4(Levineetal.,2007)andothermajorrecentstudies(UNEP,2011b;GEA,2012)providea
detailedpresentationandacomprehensiveanalysisofsucheffects.Here,areviewofrecent
advancesfocusesonselectedcobenefits/risks,withaviewtoprovidingmethods,quantitative
information,andexamplesthatcanbeutilizedinthedecisionmakingprocess.
2
Cobenefitsandadversesideeffectsdescribeeffectsinnonmonetaryunitswithoutyetevaluatingthenet
effectonoverallsocialwelfare.Pleaserefertotherespectivesectionsintheframingchapters(particularly2.4,
3.6.3,and4.8)aswellastotheglossaryinAnnexIforconceptsanddefinitions.
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Table 9.7. Overview of potential co-benefits (green arrows) and adverse side-effects (orange arrows)
associated with mitigation actions in buildings. Please refer to Sections 7.9, 11.7, and 11.13 for
possible upstream effects of low-carbon electricity and biomass supply on additional objectives. Co-
benefits and adverse side-effects depend on local circumstances as well as on the implementation
practice, pace, and scale (see Section 6.6). For an assessment of macroeconomic, cross-sectoral
effects associated with mitigation policies (e.g., on energy prices, consumption, growth, and trade),
see Sections 3.9, 6.3.6, 13.2.2.3 and 14.4.2.
Cobenefits/Adversesideeffects References
Buildingsindevelopingcountries
Buildingsindevelopedcountries
Retrofitsofexistingbuildings
incorporation/greenroofs
Exemplarynewbuildings
Commercialbuildings
Residentialbuildings
Behaviouralchanges
Fuelswitching/RES
Efficientequipment
Economic
Employmentimpact X X X X X X X X (Scottetal.,2008;Pollinetal.,2009;rge
Vorsatzetal.,2010;Goldetal.,2011)
Energysecurity X X X X X X X X X (IEA,2007;Dixonetal.,2010;Borgand
Kelly,2011;Steinfeldetal.,2011)
Productivity X X X X X X (Fisk,2002;Katsetal.,2003;Loftnessetal.,
2003;Singhetal.,2010b)
Enhancedassetvaluesofbuildings X X X X X X X (Milleretal.,2008;BrounenandKok,2011;
Dengetal.,2012)
Lowerneedforenergysubsidies X X X X X X X X X (rgeVorsatzetal.,2009;GEA,2012)
Disasterresilience X X X X X X (Berdahl,1995;Mills,2003;Coaffee,2008)
Social
Fuelpovertyalleviation(reduced X X X X X X (Herreroetal.;Healy,2004;Liddelland
demandforenergy) Morris,2010;Hills,2011;rgeVorsatzand
TiradoHerrero,2012)
Fuelpovertyalleviation(incases X X X X (GEA,2012;Rao,2013)
ofincreasesinthecostofenergy)
Energyaccess(incasesof X X X X X X (GEA,2012);foramoreindepthdiscussion
increasesinthecostofenergy,high pleaseseeSection7.9.1
investmentcostsneeded,etc.)
Noiseimpact,thermalcomfort) X X X X X X (Jakob,2006;StoeckleinandSkumatz,
2007)
Increasedproductivetimefor X X X X (Reddyetal.,2000;LambrouandPiana,
womenandchildren(forreplaced 2006;Huttonetal.,2007;Anenbergetal.,
traditionalcookstoves) 2013)(WodonandBlackden,2006)
Reboundeffect X X X X X X X X (Greeningetal.,2000;Sorrell,2007;Hens
etal.,2009;Sorrelletal.,2009;Druckman
etal.,2011;rgeVorsatzetal.,2012a)
Health/Environmental
Healthimpactdueto:
reducedoutdoorpollution X X X X X X X X X (Levyetal.,2003;Aunanetal.,2004;
Mirasgedisetal.,2004;Chenetal.,2007;
CrawfordBrownetal.,2012;Milneretal.,
2012);seeSection7.9.2
reducedindoorpollution X X X X (Bruceetal.,2006;ZhangandSmith,2007;
Dufloetal.,2008;WHO,2009;Wilkinsonet
al.,2009;HowdenChapmanandChapman,
2012;Milneretal.,2012);WGIISection
11.9.
improvedindoorenvironmental X X X X X X X (Fisk,2002;Singhetal.,2010b;Howden
conditions ChapmanandChapman,2012;Milneret
al.,2012)
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Cobenefits/Adversesideeffects References
Buildingsindevelopingcountries
Buildingsindevelopedcountries
Retrofitsofexistingbuildings
incorporation/greenroofs
Exemplarynewbuildings
Commercialbuildings
Residentialbuildings
Behaviouralchanges
Fuelswitching/RES
Efficientequipment
fuelpovertyalleviation X X X X X X (Herreroetal.;Healy,2004;Liddelland
Morris,2010;Hills,2011;rgeVorsatzand
TiradoHerrero,2012)
insufficientventilation(sick X X X X X X (Fisk,2002;GEA,2012;Milneretal.,2012)
buildingsyndrome),substandard
energyefficiencytechnologies,etc.
Ecosystemimpact X X X X X X X X X (Aunanetal.,2004;Mirasgedisetal.,2004;
rgeVorsatzetal.,2009;Cam,2012)
Reducedwaterconsumptionand X X X X X X X (Katsetal.,2005;Bansaletal.,2011)
sewageproduction
Urbanheatislandeffect X X X X X X (Cam,2012;Xuetal.,2012b);seeSections
9.5and12.8
9.7.2 Socioeconomiceffects
9.7.2.1 Impactsonemployment
Studies(Scottetal.,2008;Pollinetal.,2009;Kuckshinrichsetal.,2010;Kppletal.,2011;ILO,2012)
havefoundthatgreateruseofrenewablesandenergyefficiencyinthebuildingsectorresultsin
positiveeconomiceffectsthroughjobcreation,economicgrowth,increaseofincome,andreduced
needsforcapitalstockintheenergysector.Theseconclusions,however,havebeencriticizedon
groundsthatinclude,amongothers,theaccountingmethodsused,theefficacyofusingpublicfunds
forenergyprojectsinsteadofforotherinvestments,andthepossibleinefficienciesofinvestingin
labourintensiveactivities(Alvarezetal.,2010;Carleyetal.,2011;Glen,2011).Areviewofthe
literatureonquantificationofemploymenteffectsofenergyefficiencyandmitigationmeasuresin
thebuildingsectorissummarizedinFigure9.18.Thebulkofthestudiesreviewed,whichmainly
concerndevelopedeconomies,pointoutthattheimplementationofmitigationinterventionsin
buildingsgeneratesonaverage13(rangeof0.7to35.5)jobyearspermillionUSD2010spent.This
rangedoesnotchangeifonlystudiesestimatingnetemploymenteffectsareconsidered.Two
studies(Scottetal.,2008;Goldetal.,2011)focusoncostsavingsfromunspentenergybudgetsthat
canberedirectedintheeconomy,estimatingthattheresultingemploymenteffectsrangebetween
6.0and10.2jobyearspermillionUSD2010spent.Severalstudies(Pollinetal.,2009;rgeVorsatzet
al.,2010;Weietal.,2010;Carleyetal.,2011)agreethatbuildingretrofitsandinvestmentsinclean
energytechnologiesaremorelabourintensivethanconventionalapproaches(i.e.,energy
productionfromfossilfuels,otherconstructionactivities).However,towhatextentinvestingin
cleanenergycreatesmoreemploymentcomparedtoconventionalactivitiesdependsalsoonthe
structureoftheeconomyinquestion,levelofwages,andiftheproductionofequipmentand
servicestodeveloptheseinvestmentsoccursornotinsidetheeconomyunderconsideration.Tothis
end,theestimationofnetemploymentbenefitsinsteadofgrosseffectsisofparticularimportance
foranintegratedanalysisofenergyefficiencyimplicationsontheeconomy.Investinginclean
technologiesmaycreatenewjobactivities(e.g.,insolarindustry,inthesectorofnewbuilding
materialsetc.),butthevastmajorityofjobscanbeintraditionalareas(Pollinetal.,2009)albeitwith
differentskillsrequired(ILO,2012).
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Figure 9.18. Employment effects attributed to GHG mitigation initiatives in the building sector.
Sources used: USA: (Scott et al., 2008; Bezdek, 2009; Hendricks et al., 2009; Pollin et al., 2009;
Garrett-Peltier, 2011; Gold et al., 2011). Hungary: (rge-Vorsatz et al., 2010). Ontario, Canada:
(Pollin and Garrett-Peltier, 2009). Germany: (Kuckshinrichs et al., 2010). Denmark: (Ege et al., 2009).
EU: (ETUC, 2008). Greece: (Markaki et al., 2013) France: (ADEME, 2008). All studies from the USA,
Hungary, Ontario Canada and Greece include the direct, indirect and induced employment effects. In
(ADEME, 2008) and (ETUC, 2008) only the direct effects are taken into account. (Ege et al., 2009)
includes the direct and indirect effects while this information is not provided in (Kuckshinrichs et al.,
2010).
9.7.2.2 Energysecurity
Implementationofmitigationmeasuresinthebuildingssectorcanplayanimportantrolein
increasingthesufficiencyofresourcestomeetnationalenergydemandatcompetitiveandstable
pricesandimprovingtheresilienceoftheenergysupplysystem.Specifically,mitigationactions
resultin:(1)strengtheningpowergridreliabilitythroughtheenhancementofproperlymanagedon
sitegenerationandthereductionoftheoveralldemand,whichresultinreducedpower
transmissionanddistributionlossesandconstraints(Kahn,2008;Passeyetal.,2011);(2)reducing
coolingrelatedpeakpowerdemandandshiftingdemandtooffpeakperiods(BorgandKelly,2011;
Steinfeldetal.,2011);and(3)increasingthediversificationofenergysourcesaswellastheshareof
domesticenergysourcesusedinaspecificenergysystem(seeforexample(Dixonetal.,2010).A
moregeneraldiscussiononenergysecurityisprovidedinSection6.6.
9.7.2.3 Benefitsrelatedtoworkplaceproductivity
Investmentinlowcarbontechnologiesrelatedtoairconditioningandwallthermalpropertiesduring
constructionorrenovationimprovesworkplaceproductivity,asevidencedbyametaanalysisof
severalstudies(Fisk,2002;Katsetal.,2003;Loftnessetal.,2003;Riesetal.,2006;Sustainability
VictoriaandKadorGroup,2007;Milleretal.,2009;Singhetal.,2010b).Onaverage,energyefficient
buildingsmayresultinincreasedproductivityby19%orevenhigherforspecificactivitiesorcase
studies(Figure9.16).Theproductivitygainscanbeattributedto:(1)reducedworkingdayslostto
asthmaandrespiratoryallergies;(2)fewerworkhoursaffectedbyflu,respiratoryillnesses,
depression,andstress;and(3)improvedworkerperformancefromchangesinthermalcomfortand
lighting.Productivitygainscanrankamongthehighestvaluecobenefitswhenthesearemonetized,
especiallyincountrieswithhighlabourcosts(GEA,2012).
9.7.2.4 Reboundeffects
Improvementsinenergyefficiencycanbeoffsetbyincreasesindemandforenergyservicesdueto
thereboundeffect.ThegeneralissuesrelatingtotheeffectaresetoutinSections3.9.5and5.6.The
reboundeffectisofparticularimportanceinbuildingsbecauseofthehighproportionofenergy
efficiencypotentialinthissector.Studiesrelatedtobuildingsformamajorpartofthetwomajor
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reviewsofrebound(Greeningetal.,2000;Sorrell,2007).Directreboundeffectstendtobeinthe
range030%formajorenergyservicesinbuildingssuchasheatingandcooling(Sorrelletal.,2009;
rgeVorsatzetal.,2012b)indevelopedcountries.Forenergyserviceswhereenergyisasmaller
fractionoftotalcosts,e.g.,electricalappliances,thereislessevidence,butvaluesarelowerandless
than20%(Sorrell,2007).Somewhathigherreboundlevelshavebeenfoundforlowerincomegroups
(Roy,2000;Hensetal.,2009),implyingthatefficiencycontributespositivelytoenergyservice
affordabilityanddevelopmentgoalswhichareoftenthepurposesofefficiencypoliciesinthese
countries.However,thereislimitedevidenceoutsideOECDcountries(Roy,2000;Ouyangetal.,
2010)andfurtherresearchisrequiredhere.Studiesofindirectreboundeffectsforbuildingstendto
showlowvalues,e.g.,7%forthermostatchanges(Druckmanetal.,2011).Someclaimshavebeen
madethatindirectreboundeffectsmaybeverylarge(Brookes,2000;Saunders,2000),even
exceeding100%,sothatenergyefficiencyimprovementwouldincreaseenergyuse.Theseclaims
mayhavehadsomevalidityforcriticalgeneralpurposetechnologiessuchassteamenginesduring
intensiveperiodsofindustrialization(Sorrell,2007),butthereisnoevidencetosupportlarge
reboundeffectsforenergyefficiencyinbuildings.Decliningenergyuseindevelopedcountrieswith
strongpoliciesforenergyefficiencyinbuildingsindicatesreboundeffectsarelow(seeSection9.2).
Reboundeffectsshouldbetakenintoaccountinbuildingenergyefficiencypolicies,butdonotalter
conclusionsabouttheirimportanceandcosteffectivenessinclimatemitigation(Sorrell,2007).
9.7.2.5 Fuelpovertyalleviation
Fuelpovertyisaconditioninwhichahouseholdisunabletoguaranteeacertainlevelof
consumptionofdomesticenergyservices(especiallyheating)orsuffersdisproportionate
expenditureburdenstomeettheseneeds(Boardman,1991;BERR,2001;HealyandClinch,2002;
Buzar,2007;rgeVorsatzandTiradoHerrero,2012).Assuch,ithasarangeofnegativeeffectson
thehealthandwelfareoffuelpoorhouseholds.Forinstance,indoortemperaturesthataretoolow
affectvulnerablepopulationgroupslikechildren,adolescent,ortheelderly(LiddellandMorris,
2010;MarmotReviewTeam,2011)andincreaseexcesswintermortalityrates(TheEurowinter
Group,1997;Wilkinsonetal.,2001;Healy,2004).Amoreanalyticaldiscussiononthepotential
healthimpactsassociatedwithfuelpovertyispresentedinSection9.7.3.Despitethefactthat
somemitigationmeasures(e.g.,renewables)mayresultinhigherconsumerenergyprices
aggravatingenergypoverty,substantiallyimprovingthethermalperformanceofbuildings(suchas
Passivehouse)andeducatingresidentsonappropriateenergymanagementcanlargelyalleviatefuel
poverty.Severalstudieshaveshownthatfuelpovertyrelatedmonetizedcobenefitsmakeupover
30%ofthetotalbenefitsofenergyefficiencyinvestmentsandaremoreimportantthanthosearising
fromavoidedemissionsofgreenhousesgasesandotherharmfulpollutantslikeSO2,NOx,andPM10
(ClinchandHealy,2001;TiradoHerreroandrgeVorsatz,2012).
9.7.3 Environmentalandhealtheffects
9.7.3.1 Healthcobenefitsduetoimprovedindoorconditions
Theimplementationofenergyefficiencyinterventionsinbuildingsimprovesindoorconditions
resultinginsignificantcobenefitsforpublichealth,through:(1)reductionofindoorairpollution,(2)
improvementofindoorenvironmentalconditions,and(3)alleviationoffuelpovertyparticularlyin
coldregions.Indevelopingcountries,inefficientcombustionoftraditionalsolidfuelsinhouseholds
producessignificantgaseousandparticulateemissionsknownasproductsofincomplete
combustion(PICs),andresultsinsignificanthealthimpacts,particularlyforwomenandchildren,
whospendlongerperiodsathome(ZhangandSmith,2007;Dufloetal.,2008;Wilkinsonetal.,2009).
Indoorairpollutionfromtheuseofbiomassandcoalwasresponsiblefor2millionprematuredeaths
and41milliondisabilityadjustedlifeyears(DALYs)worldwidein2004(WHO,2009),withrecent
estimates(Limetal.,2012)reachingashighas3.5millionprematuredeathsin2010.Anotherhalfa
millionprematuredeathsareattributedtohouseholdcookfuelscontributiontooutdoorair
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pollution,makingatotalofabout4million(seeWGIIChapter11.9.1.3).Severalclimatemitigation
optionssuchasimprovedcookstoves,switchingtocleanerfuels,changingbehaviours,andswitching
tomoreefficientandlessdangerouslightingtechnologiesaddressnotonlyclimatechangebutalso
thesehealthissues(Anenbergetal.,2012;Smithetal.,2013;Raoetal.,2013).Wilkinsonetal.
(2009)showedthattheimplementationofanationalprogrammepromotingmodernlowemissions
stovetechnologiesinIndiacouldresultinsignificanthealthbenefitsamountingto12,500fewer
DALYspermillionpopulationinoneyear.Bruceetal.(2006)investigatedthehealthbenefitsandthe
costsassociatedwiththeimplementationofselectedinterventionsaimingatreducingindoorair
pollutionfromtheuseofsolidfuelsforcooking/spaceheatinginvariousworldregions(Table9.8).
Table 9.8. Healthy years gained per thousand USD2010 spent in implementing interventions aiming at
reducing indoor air pollution. (Source: Bruce et al., 2006).
Intervention Sub Latin Middle Europe South EastAsia

Saharan America East and Asia andthe
Africa and and Central Pacific
Caribbean North Asia
Africa
Accesstocleanerfuels: 1.301.79 0.66 ~1.2 0.70 1.70 0.559.30
LPG 1.19 0.76 2.97
Accesstocleanerfuels: 11.1 1.46 ~9.7 5.07 14.8 4.1179.5
Kerosene 15.4 8.77 5.56 25.8
Improvedstoves 36.7 0.84 2.03 n.a. 62.4 1.583.11
45.9 0.98 2.52 70.7
Inbothdevelopedanddevelopingcountries,betterinsulation,ventilation,andheatingsystemsin
buildingsimprovetheindoorconditionsandresultinfewerrespiratorydiseases,allergiesand
asthmaaswellasreducedsickbuildingsyndrome(SBS)symptoms(Fisk,2002;Singhetal.,2010b).
Ontheotherhand,insufficientventilationinairtightbuildingshasbeenfoundtoaffectnegatively
theiroccupants'health,ashastheinstallationofsubstandardenergyefficiencytechnologiesdueto
insitutoxicchemicals(Fisk,2002;GEA,2012;Milneretal.,2012).Ofparticularimportanceisthe
alleviationoffuelpovertyinbuildings,whichisassociatedwithexcessmortalityandmorbidity
effects,depression,andanxiety(GreenandGilbertson,2008).Itisestimatedthatover10%toas
muchas40%ofexcesswinterdeathsintemperatecountriesisrelatedtoinadequateindoor
temperatures(ClinchandHealy,2001;MarmotReviewTeam,2011).IncountriessuchasPoland,
Germany,orSpain,thisamountstoseveralthousandupto10,000excessannualwinterdeaths.
Thesefiguressuggestthatindevelopedcountries,fuelpovertymaybecausingprematuredeaths
peryearsimilartoorhigherthanthatofroadtrafficaccidents(BonnefoyandSadeckas,2006;rge
Vorsatz,WjcikGront,Herrero,Labzina,etal.,2012;TiradoHerreroetal.,2012).Improved
residentialinsulationisexpectedtoreduceillnessesassociatedwithroomtemperaturethusprovide
nonenergybenefits,suchasreducedmedicalexpensesandreducedlossofincomeduetounpaid
sickleavefromworkandschool.AstudyintheUKfoundthatforeachUSD20101investedfor
warminghomesreducesthehealthcarecostsbyUSD20100.49(Liddell,2008).Suchfindingssuggest
thataddressingfuelpovertyissuesandtheresultinghealthimpactsindevelopingnationsareeven
moreimportant,asagreatershareofthepopulationisaffected(WHO,2011).
9.7.3.2 Healthandenvironmentalcobenefitsduetoreducedoutdoorairpollution
Theimplementationofmitigationmeasuresinthebuildingsectorreducestheconsumptionoffossil
fuelsandelectricity,thusimprovingtheoutdoorairqualityandresultingin:(1)reducedmortality
andmorbidity,particularlyindevelopingcountriesandbigcities(Smithetal.,2010;Harlanand
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Ruddell,2011)(seeSection12.8);and(2)lessstressesonnaturalandanthropogenicecosystems
(seeSection7.9.1).Quantificationandvaluationofthesebenefitsispossible,andallowsthemtobe
integratedintocostbenefitanalysis.Manystudies(seeforexampleLevyetal.,2003;Aunanetal.,
2004;Mirasgedisetal.,2004;Chenetal.,2007;CrawfordBrownetal.,2012)havemonetizedthe
healthandenvironmentalbenefitsattributedtoreducedoutdoorairpollutionthatresultfromthe
implementationofenergyefficiencymeasuresinbuildings.Themagnitudeofthesebenefitsisofthe
orderof822%ofthevalueofenergysavingsindevelopedcountries(Levyetal.,2003;Nss
Schmidtetal.,2012),andevenhigherindevelopingnations(seeChapter6.6).Markandyaetal.
(2009)estimatedthatthehealthbenefitsexpressedinUSD2010pertonofCO2notemittedfrom
powerplants(throughforexampletheimplementationofelectricityconservationinterventions)are
intherangeof2USD2010/tCO2inEU,7USD2010/tCO2inChinaand46USD2010/tCO2inIndia,
accountingforonlythemortalityimpactsassociatedwithPM2.5emissions.PleaserefertoSection
5.7forhigherestimatesintheassessedliterature.
9.7.3.3 Otherenvironmentalbenefits
Energyefficiencymeasuresthatareimplementedinbuildingsresultinseveralotherenvironmental
benefits.Specifically,usingenergyefficientappliancessuchaswashingmachinesanddishwashersin
homesresultsinconsiderablewatersavings(Bansaletal.,2011).Moregenerally,anumberof
studiesshowthatgreendesigninbuildingsisassociatedwithlowerdemandforwater,resultingin
reducedcostsandemissionsfromtheutilitiessector.Forexample,(Katsetal.,2005)evaluated30
greenschoolsinMassachusettsandfoundanaveragewaterusereductionof32%comparedto
conventionalschools,achievedthroughthereuseoftherainwaterandothernonpotablewateras
wellastheinstallationofwaterefficientappliances(e.g.,intoilets)andadvancedcontrols.Also,the
implementationofgreenroofs,roofgardens,balconygardens,andskyterracesaswellasgreen
facades/wallsinbuildings,resultsin:(1)reducingheatgainsforbuildingsinhotclimates;(2)
reducingtheheatislandeffect;(3)improvingairquality;(4)enhancingurbanbiodiversity,especially
withtheselectionofindigenousvegetationspecies;(5)absorbingCO2emissions,etc.(Cam,2012;Xu
etal.,2012b)(seeGilletal.,2007andSection12.5.2.2).
9.8 Barriersandopportunities
Strongbarriersmanytoparticulartothebuildingssectorhinderthemarketuptakeoflargely
costeffectiveopportunitiestoachieveenergyefficiencyimprovementsshowninearliersections.
Largepotentialswillremainuntappedwithoutadequatepoliciesthatinducetheneededchangesin
privatedecisionsandprofessionalpractices.Barriersandrelatedopportunitiesvaryconsiderablyby
location,buildingtype,culture,andstakeholdergroups,asvarytheoptionstoovercomethem,such
aspolicies,measures,andinnovativefinancingschemes.Avastliteratureonbarriersand
opportunitiesinbuildingsenumeratesanddescribesthesefactors(Brownetal.,2008b)(rge
Vorsatzetal.,2012a).(Power,2008),(Lomas,2009)(Mlecnik,2010),(Short,2007),(Hegner,2010)
(Stevenson,2009),(PellegriniMasiniandLeishman,2011),(Greden),(Collins,2007),(Houghton,
2011),(Kwok,2010),(Amundsen,2010)and(Monni,2008).
Barriersincludeimperfectinformation,transactioncosts,limitedcapital,externalities,subsidies,risk
aversion,principalagentproblems,fragmentedmarketandinstitutionalstructures,poorfeedback,
poorenforcementofregulations,culturalaspects,cognitiveandbehaviouralpatterns,aswellas
difficultiesconcerningpatentprotectionandtechnologytransfer.Inlessdevelopedareas,lackof
awareness,financing,qualifiedpersonnel,economicinformality,andgenerallyinsufficientservice
levelsleadtosuboptimalpoliciesandmeasuresthuscausinglockineffectsintermsofemissions.
Thepaceofpolicyuptakeisespeciallyimportantindevelopingcountriesbecauseongoing
developmenteffortsthatdonotconsidercobenefitsmaylockinsuboptimaltechnologiesand
infrastructureandresultinhighcostsinfutureyears(Williamsetal.,2012).
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9.9 Sectoralimplicationoftransformationpathwaysandsustainable
development
9.9.1. Introduction
Thepurposeofthissectionistoreviewboththeintegratedaswellassectoralbottomupmodelling
literaturefromtheperspectiveofwhatmaintrendsareprojectedforthefuturebuildingemissions
andenergyusedevelopments,andtheroleofmajormitigationstrategiesoutlinedinSection9.1.
ThesectioncomplementstheanalysisinSection6.8withmoredetailsonfindingsfromthebuilding
sector.Thetwokeypillarsofthesectionare(1)astatisticalanalysisofalargepopulationof
scenariosfromintegratedmodels(665scenariosintotal)groupedbytheirlongtermCO2equivalent
(CO2eq)concentrationlevelby2100,complementedbytheanalysisofsectoralmodels(groupedby
baselineandadvancedscenario,sinceoftenthesedonotrelatetoconcentrationgoals);and(2)a
moredetailedanalysisofasmallselectionofintegratedandenduse/sectoralmodels.Thesourceof
theintegratedmodelsistheAR5ScenarioDatabase(seeSection6.2.2fordetails),andthoseofthe
sectoralmodelsare(WBCSD,2009;GPI,2010;Laustsen,2010;Harvey,2010;WEO,2011;rge
Vorsatzetal.,2012a;IEA,2012c).
9.9.2. Overviewofbuildingsectorenergyprojections
Figure9.19,togetherwithFigure9.20andFigure9.21indicatethatwithoutaction,globalbuilding
finalenergyusecoulddoubleorpossiblytriplebymidcentury.Whilethemedianofintegrated
modelscenariosforecastanapproximate75%increaseascomparedto2010(Figure9.19),several
keyscenariosthatmodelthissectoringreaterdetailforeseealargergrowth,suchas:AIM,Message,
andtheGlobalChangeAssessmentModel(GCAM),allofwhichprojectanover150%baseline
growth(Figure9.20).Thesectoral/bottomupliterature,however,indicatesthatthisgrowingtrend
canbereversedandthesectorsenergyusecanstagnate,orevendecline,bymidcentury,under
advancedscenarios.
Theprojecteddevelopmentinbuildingfinalenergyuseisratherdifferentinthesectoral(bottom
up)andintegratedmodellingliterature,asillustratedinFigure9.19,Figure9.20,andFigure9.21.
Forinstance,theintegratedmodelliteratureforeseesanincreaseinbuildingenergyconsumptionin
mostscenarioswithalmostnoneforeseeingstabilization,whereasthevastmajorityofambitious
scenariosfromthebottomup/sectoralliteraturestabilizeorevendeclinedespitetheincreasesin
wealth,floorspace,servicelevels,andamenities(seeSection9.2).Severalstringentmitigation
scenariosfromintegratedmodelsareabovebaselinescenariosfromthesectoralliterature(Figure
9.20).Ingeneral,thesectoralliteratureseesdeeperopportunitiesforenergyusereductionsinthe
buildingsectorthanintegratedmodels.
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Figure 9.19. Development of normalized annual global building final energy demand (2010=100) until
2050 in the integrated modelling literature, grouped by the three levels of long-term CO2eq
concentration level by 21003 (245 scenarios with 430530 ppm CO2eq, 156 scenarios with 530650
ppm CO2eq, and 177 scenarios exceeding 720 ppm CO2eqfor category descriptions see Chapter
6.3.3; see box plots) and sectoral/bottom-up literature (9 baseline scenarios and 9 advanced
scenarios; see square, triangle and circle symbols). Sectoral scenarios covering appliances (A) only
are denoted as squares, scenarios covering heating/cooling/water heating (HCW) as triangles,
scenarios covering heating/cooling/water heating/lighting/appliances (HCWLA) as circles. Filled
symbols are for baseline scenario, whereas empty symbols are for advanced scenarios.
AsthefocusonselectedscenariosinFigure9.21suggests,thermalenergyusecanbereducedmore
stronglythanenergyinotherbuildingenduses:reductionsinthetotalaretypicallyasmuchas,or
lessthan,decreasesinheatingandcooling(sometimeswithhotwater)energyusescenarios.Figure
9.21showsthatdeepreductionsareforeseenonlyinthethermalenergyusesbybottom
up/sectoralscenarios,butappliancescanbereducedonlymoderately,eveninsectoralstudies.This
indicatesthatmitigationismorechallengingfornonthermalendusesandisbecomingincreasingly
importantforambitiousmitigationovertime,especiallyinadvancedheatingandcoolingscenarios
wherethisenergyusecanbesuccessfullypusheddowntoafractionofits2005levels.These
3
Thissectionbuildsuponemissionsscenarios,whichwerecollatedbyChapter6intheAR5scenariodatabase(Section
6.2.2),andcomparesthemtodetailedbuildingsectorstudies.Thescenariosweregroupedintobaselineandmitigation
scenarios.AsdescribedinmoredetailinSection6.3.2,thescenariosarefurthercategorizedintobinsbasedon2100
concentrations:between430480ppmCO2eq,480530ppmCO2eq,530580ppmCO2eq,580650ppmCO2eq,650720
ppmCO2eq,and>720ppmCO2eqby2100.Anassessmentofgeophysicalclimateuncertaintiesconsistentwiththe
dynamicsofEarthSystemModelsassessedinWGIfoundthatthemoststringentofthesescenariosleadingto2100
concentrationsbetween430and480ppmvCO2eqwouldleadtoanendofcenturymediantemperaturechangebetween
1.6to1.8Ccomparedtopreindustrialtimes,althoughuncertaintiesinunderstandingoftheclimatesystemmeanthatthe
possibletemperaturerangeismuchwiderthanthisrange.Theywerefoundtomaintaintemperaturechangebelow2C
overthecourseofthecenturywithalikelychance.Scenariosintheconcentrationcategoryof650720ppmCO2eq
correspondtocomparativelymodestmitigationefforts,andwerefoundtoleadtomediantemperatureriseof
approximately2.62.9Cin2100(seeSection6.3.2fordetails).
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findingsconfirmthemoretheoreticaldiscussionsinthischapter,i.e.,thatinthermalenduses
deeperreductionscanbeexpectedwhileapplianceenergyusewillbemoredifficulttoreduceor
evenlimititsgrowth.Forinstance(rgeVorsatzetal.,2012d)showa46%reductioninheatingand
coolingenergydemandascomparedto2005evenunderbaselineassumptionsonwealthand
amenitiesincreases.Incontrast,theselectedintegratedmodelsthatfocusondetailedbuilding
sectormodellingprojectverylittlereductioninheatingandcooling.
Anothergeneralfindingisthatstudiesshowsignificantlylargerreductionpotentialsby2050thanby
2030,pointingtotheneedforalongerterm,strategicpolicyplanning,duetolongleadtimesof
buildinginfrastructuremodernization(seeSection9.4).Infact,mostofthesestudiesandscenarios
showenergygrowththrough2020,withthedeclinestartinglater,suggestingthatpatienceand
thuspolicypermanenceisvitalforthissectorinordertobeabletoexploititslargemitigation
potentials.

Figure 9.20. Annual global final energy demand development in the building sector by 2050 in
selected sectoral models for baseline (left) and advanced (right) scenarios, for total energy (HCWLA,
heating/cooling/hot water/lighting/appliances),thermal energy (HCW, includes heating/cooling/hot
water), and appliances (A); compared to selected integrated models. Dashed lines show integrated
models, solid lines show other sectoral/bottom-up models. Sources as indicated in Section 9.9.1.4.
4
Fortheanalysistofollow,wehavechosensevenillustrativeintegratedmodelswithtwoscenarioseach,coveringthefull
rangeofyear2050finalenergyuseinallnopolicyscenariosintheAR5scenariodatabaseandtheir450ppmvscenario
counterparts.ThesenopolicyscenariosareMESSAGEV.4_EMF27BaseEERE,IMAGE2.4_AMPERE2BaseLowEIOPT,AIM
Enduse[Backcast]1.0_LIMITSStrPol,BET1.5_EMF27BaseFullTech,TIAMWORLD2012.2_EMF27BaseFullTech,GCAM
3.0_AMPERE3Base,andPOLESAMPERE_AMPERE3Base.ThemitigationscenariocounterpartsareMESSAGEV.4_EMF27
450EERE,IMAGE2.4_AMPERE2450LowEIOPT,AIMEnduse[Backcast]1.0_LIMITSStrPol450,BET1.5_EMF27450
FullTech,TIAMWORLD2012.2_EMF27450FullTech,GCAM3.0_AMPERE3CF450,andPOLESAMPERE_AMPERE3CF450.
Inaddition,sectoral/bottomupmodelsandscenarioswerealsoincluded.Thenopolicy/baselinescenariosareBUENAS
Baseline,3CSEPHEBFrozenefficiency,LAUSTSENBaseline,WEO'10CurrentPolicies,ETP'10Baseline,EcofysBaseline,and
GreenpeaceEnergyRevolution2010Baseline.TheadvancedscenariosareBUENASEES&L,3CSEPHEBDeepefficiency,
LAUSTSENFactor4,WEO'10450Scenario,ETP'10BLUEMap,EcofysTER,andGreenpeaceEnergyRevolution2010
Revolution.
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Figure 9. 21. Building final energy use in EJ/yr in 2050 (2030 for the Bottom-Up Energy Analysis
System (BUENAS) model) for advanced scenarios, modelling four groups of building end-uses as
compared to reference ones. Blue bars show scenarios from integrated models meeting 480580
ppm CO2eq concentration in 2100, orange/red bars are from sectoral models. Sources as indicated in
Section 9.9.1
Thetrendsnotedaboveareverydifferentinthedifferentworldregions.AsFigure9.22
demonstrates,bothpercapitaandtotalfinalbuildingenergyuseisexpectedtodeclineorcloseto
stabilizeeveninbaselinescenariosinOECDcountries.Incontrast,theLatinAmericanandAsian
regionswillexperiencemajorgrowthbothforpercapitaandtotallevels,eveninthemoststringent
mitigationscenarios.MAFwillexperiencemajorgrowthfortotallevels,butgrowthisnotprojected
forpercapitalevelseveninbaselinescenarios.Thisislikelyduemainlytothefactthatfuelswitching
fromtraditionalbiomasstomodernenergycarriersresultsinsignificantconversionefficiencygains,
thusallowingsubstantialincreasesinenergyservicelevelswithoutincreasingfinalenergyuse.
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Figure 9.22. Normalized total (for first two sets of boxes) and per capita (for next two sets of boxes)
buildings final energy demand in 2010 and 2050 for each of the RC5 regions (Annex II.2.2) in
scenarios from integrated models (2010=100). The absolute values of the medians are also shown
with the unit of EJ for total buildings final energy demand and the unit of GJ for per capita buildings
final energy demand (229 scenarios with 430530 ppm CO2eq and 154 scenarios exceeding 720ppm
CO2eqfor category descriptions see Section 6.3.2). Note that the 2010 absolute values are not
equal for the two CO2eq concentration categories because for most integrated models 2010 is a
modeling year implying some variation across models, such as in the treatment of traditional biomass.
Sources as indicated in Section 9.9.1.
9.9.3. Keymitigationstrategiesashighlightedbythepathwayanalysis
Thediversityofthedevelopmentinfinalenergydemandevenamongthemoststringentmitigation
scenariossuggeststhatdifferentmodelstakedifferentfocifortheirbuildingmitigationstrategies.
Whilemostmitigationandadvancedbottomup/sectoralscenariosshowflatorreducingglobalfinal
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buildingenergyuse,afewintegratedmodelsachievestringentmitigationfromratherhighfinal
energydemandlevels,therebyfocusingonenergysupplysidemeasuresforreducingemissions.
Thesescenarioshaveabouttwiceashighpercapitafinalenergydemandlevelsin2050asthelowest
mitigationscenarios.Thissuggestsafocusonenergysupplysidemeasuresfordecarbonization.In
general,Figure9.19,Figure9.20,andFigure9.21alldemonstratethatintegratedmodelsgenerally
placealargerfocusonsupplysidesolutionsthanonfinalenergyreductionopportunitiesinthe
buildingsector(seeSection6.8)exceptforasmallselectionofstudies.
Fuelswitchingtoelectricitythatisincreasinglybeingdecarbonizedisarobustmitigationstrategyas
showninSections6.3.4and6.8.However,asFigure9.23aindicates,thisisnotfullythecaseinthe
buildingssector.Thetotalshareofelectricityinthissectorisinfluencedlittlebymitigation
stringencyexceptfortheleastambitiousscenarios:itexhibitsanautonomousincreasefromabout
28%offinalenergyin2010to50%andmorein2050inalmostallscenarios,i.e.,theuseofmore
electricityasashareofbuildingenergysupplyisanimportantbaselinetrendinthesector.
Comparedtothisrobustbaselinetrend,theadditionalelectrificationinmitigationscenariosisrather
modest(seealsoSection6.8.4).
Figure9.23bindicatesthatthehigherratesofenergygrowth(xaxis)inthemodelsinvolvegenerally
higherratesofelectricitygrowth(yaxis).Thetwoincreasesarenearlyproportional,sothatthe
ratesofelectricitydemandsharegrowth,ofwhichlevelisindicatedby45olines,remainmostly
below2%peryeareveninthepresenceofclimatepolicy.
Figure 9.23. Left panel: The development in the share of electricity in global final energy demand until
2050 in integrated model scenarios (167 scenarios with 430530 ppm CO2eq, 138 scenarios with
ppm 530650 CO2eq, and 149 scenarios exceeding 720 ppm CO2eqfor category descriptions see
Chapter 6.3.3), and right panel decomposition of the annual change in electricity demand share into
final energy demand change rate and electricity demand change rate (each gray line indicates a set of
points with the same annual change in electricity demand share). Sources as indicated in Section
9.9.1.
Thesevenselectedintegratedmodelsseeaverydifferentdevelopmentinthefuelmix(Figure9.24).
Inthebaselinescenarios,interestingly,mostscenariosshowafairlysimilaramountofpoweruse;
andthedifferenceintotalbuildingfinalenergyuselargelystemsfromthedifferencesintheuseof
otherfuels.Particularlylargedifferencesareforeseenintheuseofnaturalgasandoil,and,toa
lesserextent,biomass.Mitigationscenariosaresomewhatmoreuniform:mostlyabitoverhalfof
theirfuelmixiscomprisedofelectricity,withtheremainingpartmoreevenlydistributedamongthe
otherfuelsexceptcoalthatdisappearsfromtheportfolio,althoughsomescenariosexcludefurther
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individualfuels(suchasnobiomassinMESSAGE,nooilinBET,nonaturalgasinImage)byscenarios
outcomes.
Figure 9. 24. Global buildings final energy demands by fuel for the seven baseline scenarios of seven
integrated models and their corresponding mitigation scenarios (480580 ppm CO2eq concentration
in 2100). Sources as indicated in Section 9.9.1.
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9.9.4. Summaryandgeneralobservationsofglobalbuildingfinalenergyuse
Thematerialsummarizedinthissectionconcludesthatwithoutaction,globalbuildingfinalenergy
usemaydoubleorpotentiallyeventriplebymidcentury,butwithambitiousactionitcanpossibly
stabilizeordeclineascomparedtoitspresentlevels.However,theintegratedandsectoralmodels
donotfullyagreewithregardtotheextentofmitigationpotentialandthekeymitigationstrategy,
althoughthereisaverywidevariationamongintegratedmodelswithsomemoreagreementacross
sectoralmodelsconclusions.
Thebroadmitigationstrategyforbuildingsimpliedbysectoralanalysisisfirsttosignificantlyreduce
demandforbothprimaryfuelsandelectricitybyusingavailabletechnologiesforenergyefficiency
improvement,manyofwhicharecosteffectivewithoutacarbonprice.Totheextentthisis
insufficient,furthermitigationcanbeachievedthroughadditionaluseoflowandzerocarbon
electricity,fromacombinationofbuildingintegratedrenewableenergyandsubstitutionoffossil
fuelswithlowcarbonelectricity.
Thebroadmitigationstrategiesforbuildingsimpliedbyintegratedmodels,however,includea
greateremphasisonswitchingtolowcarbonenergycarriers(predominantlyelectricity).These
strategiesplacelessemphasisonreducingenergydemand,possiblybecausemanyintegrated
modelsdonotrepresentalltechnicaloptionstoreducebuildingenergyconsumptioncosteffectively
whicharecoveredinsectoralstudiesandbecauseoftheimplicitassumptionofgeneralequilibrium
modelsthatallcosteffectiveopportunitieshadbeentakenupalreadyinthebaselinewhichisat
oddswithempiricaldatafromthebuildingssector.Integratedmodeloutputstendtoshowenergy
demandreductionoverthecomingdecades,followedbyamoresignificantrolefordecarbonization
ofenergysupply(with,insomecases,heavyrelianceonbioenergywithcarbondioxidecaptureand
storage(CCS)tooffsetremainingdirectemissionsfrombuildingsandtheotherendusesectors).
Tosummarize,sectoralstudiesshowthereisalargerpotentialforenergyefficiencymeasuresto
reducebuildingsectorfinalenergyusethanismosttypicallyshownbyintegratedmodels.This
indicatesthatsomeoptionsfordemandreductionsinthebuildingssectorarenotincluded,orat
leastnotfullydeployed,byintegratedmodelsbecauseofdifferentmodelassumptionsand/orlevel
ofrichnessintechnology/optionrepresentation(seeSection6.8).
9.10 Sectoralpolicies
Thissectionfirstoutlinesthepolicyoptionstopromoteenergyefficiencyinbuildings,thenprovides
moredetailontheemergingpolicyinstrumentssinceAR4,thenfocusesonthekeynewinstruments
forfinancingandfinallyconsidersthepolicyissuesspecifictodevelopingcountries.
9.10.1 PoliciesforEnergyEfficiencyinBuildings
Section9.8showsthatmanystrongbarrierspreventthefulluptakeofenergysavingmeasures.
Marketforcesalonewillnotachievethenecessarytransformationtowardslowcarbonbuildings
withoutexternalpolicyinterventiontocorrectmarketfailuresandtoencouragenewbusinessand
financialmodelsthatovercomethefirstinvestmentcosthurdle,whichisoneofthekeybarriers.
Thereisabroadportfolioofeffectivepolicyinstrumentsavailablethatshowreductionsofemissions
atlowandnegativecosts;manyofthemhavebeenimplementedindevelopedcountriesand,more
recently,indevelopingcountries.Whenthesepoliciesareimplementedinacoordinatedmanner,
theycanbeeffectiveinreversingthetrendofgrowingenergyconsumption.Thischaptershowsthat
buildingenergyusehasfalleninseveralEuropeancountriesinrecentyearswherestrongpolicies
havebeenimplemented.Besidetechnologicalimprovementinenergyefficiency,whichhasbeenso
farthemainfocusofmostpolices,policymakershaverecentlyfocusedontheneedtochange
consumerbehaviourandlifestyle,basedontheconceptofsufficiency.Particularlyindeveloped
countries,theexistingbuildingstockislargeandrenewedonlyveryslowly,andthereforeitis
importanttointroducepoliciesthatspecificallytargettheexistingstock,e.g.,aimingataccelerating
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ratesofenergyrefurbishmentandavoidinglockintosuboptimalretrofitsforexample,thecaseof
China(Dongyan,2009).Policiesalsoneedtobedynamic,withperiodicrevisiontofollowtechnical
andmarketchanges;inparticular,regulationsneedregularstrengthening,forexamplefor
equipmentminimumefficiencystandards(SideriusandNakagami,2013)orbuildingcodes(Weisset
al.,2012).Recentlytherehasbeenmoreattentiontoenforcement,whichisneededifcountriesare
toachievethefullpotentialofimplementedorplannedpolicies(Ellisetal.,2009;Weissetal.,2012).
ThemostcommonpoliciesforthebuildingsectoraresummarizedinTable9.9,whichincludessome
examplesoftheresultsachieved.Policyinstrumentsforenergyefficiencyinbuildingsmaybe
classifiedinthefollowingcategories:(1)Regulatorymeasuresareoneofthemosteffectiveand
costeffectiveinstruments,forexample,buildingcodesandappliancestandards(BozaKissetal.,
2013)ifproperlyenforced(Weissetal.,2012);seealso(KoeppelandrgeVorsatz,2007;
McCormickandNeij,2009).Standardsneedtobesetatappropriatelevelsandperiodically
strengthenedtoavoidlockintosuboptimalperformance.(2)Informationinstrumentsincluding
equipmentenergylabels,buildinglabelsandcertificates,andmandatoryenergyauditscanbe
relativelyeffectiveontheirowndependingontheirdesign,butcanalsosupportotherinstruments,
inparticularstandards(Kelly,2012;BozaKissetal.,2013).(3)Directmarketinterventioninstruments
includepublicprocurement,whichcanhaveanimportantroleintransformingthemarket.More
recently,governmentshavesupportedthedevelopmentofenergyservicecompanies(ESCOs)(see
section9.10.3).(4)EconomicInstrumentsincludeseveraloptions,includingbothtradablepermits,
taxes,andmorefocussedincentives.Tradablepermits(oftencalledmarketbasedinstruments)
includetradablewhitecertificates(seesection9.10.2),aswellasbroadercarbonmarkets(see
Chapter13).Taxesincludeenergyandcarbontaxesandhaveincreasinglybeenimplementedto
accelerateenergyefficiency(Orlov2013).TheyarediscussedinmoredetailinChapter15,andcan
complementandreinforceotherpolicyinstrumentsinthebuildingsector.Sectorspecifictax
exemptionsandreductions,ifappropriatelystructured,canprovideamoreeffectivemechanism
thanenergytaxes(UNEPSBCI,2007).Optionsincludetaxdeductionsbuildingretrofits(Valentiniand
Pistochini,2011),valueaddedtaxexemption,andvarioustaxreliefs(Dongyan,2009),aswellas
exemptionsfrombusinesstaxesforCDMprojects(RSA,2009).Morefocussedincentivesincludelow
interestloansandincentiveswhichcanbeveryeffectiveinenlargingthemarketfornewefficient
productsandtoovercomingfirstcostbarriersfordeepretrofits(McGilliganetal.,2010).(5)
Voluntaryagreementsincludeprogrammessuchasindustryagreements.Theireffectiveness
dependsonthecontextandonaccompanyingpolicymeasures(Bertoldi,2011).(6)Adviceand
leadershipprogrammesincludepoliciessuchasinformationcampaigns,adviceservices,andpublic
leadershipprogrammestobuildpublicawarenessandcapacity.
Alargenumberofcountrieshavesuccessfullyadoptedbuildingsectorpolicies.Themostpopular
instrumentsindevelopingcountriessofarhavebeenappliancestandards,publicprocurement,and
leadershipprogrammes.TheTable9.9providesmoredetaileddescriptionsofthevarious
instruments,abriefidentificationofsomekeyissuesrelatedtotheirsuccess,andaquantitative
evaluationoftheirenvironmentalandcosteffectivenessfromtheliterature.Althoughthereisa
significantspreadintheresults,andthesamplesaresmallforconclusivejudgmentsonindividual
instruments,theavailablestudiesindicatethatamongthemostcosteffectiveinstrumentshave
beenbuildingcodesandlabels,appliancestandardsandlabels,supplierobligations,public
procurement,andleadershipprogrammes.Mostoftheseareregulatoryinstruments.However,
mostinstrumentshavebestpracticeapplicationsthathaveachievedCO2reductionsatlowor
negativesocialcosts,signallingthatabroadportfoliooftoolsisavailabletogovernmentstocost
effectivelycutbuildingrelatedemissions.
Appliancestandardsandlabels,buildingcodes,promotionofESCOs,CleanDevelopment
MechanismsandJointImplementation(CDMJI),andfinancingtools(grantsandsubsidies)haveso
farperformedasthemostenvironmentallyeffectivetoolsamongthedocumentedcases.However,
theenvironmentaleffectivenessalsovariesalotbycase.Basedonadetailedanalysisofpolicy
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evaluations,virtuallyanyoftheseinstrumentscanperformveryeffectively(environmentallyand/or
costwise)iftailoredtolocalconditionsandpolicysettings,andifimplementedandenforcedwell
(BozaKissetal.,2013).Therefore,itislikelythatthechoiceofinstrumentislesscrucialthan
whetheritisdesigned,applied,implemented,andenforcedwellandconsistently.Mostofthese
instrumentsarealsoeffectiveindevelopingcountries,whereitisessentialthatthecobenefitsof
energyefficiencypolicies(seeSection10.7)arewellmapped,quantifiedandwellunderstoodbythe
policymakers(RyanandCampbell,2012;KoeppelandrgeVorsatz,2007).Policyintegrationwith
otherpolicydomainsisparticularlyeffectivetoleveragethesecobenefitsindevelopingcountries,
andenergyefficiencygoalscanoftenbepursuedmoreeffectivelythroughotherpolicygoalsthat
havemuchhigherrankinginpoliticalagendasandthusmayenjoymuchmoreresourcesanda
strongerpoliticalmomentumthanclimatechangemitigation.
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Table 9.9. Policies for energy efficiency in buildings, their environmental effectiveness, i.e., emission reduction impact and societal cost-
effectiveness. Source: Based on (Boza-Kiss et al., 2013).
Policytitleandbriefdefinition Furtherinformation,comments Environmentaleffectiveness(selectedbest CosteffectivenessofCO2 References
practicesofannualCO2emissionreduction) emissionreduction(selected
bestpractices,USD2010/tCO2
peryr)
Buildingcodesaresetsof Latelystandardshavealsobeenadoptedforexistingbuildings EU:3545MtCO2(20102011) EUregion:<36.5 USD2010/tCO2
standardsforbuildingsor (Desogusetal.,2013).Traditionallytypicallowenforcement
buildingsystemsdetermining hasresultedinlowerthanprojectedsavings.Buildingcodes LV:0.002MtCO2/yrin2016(estimatedin2008) ES:0.17USD2010/tCO2 [1,2,3,4]
minimumrequirementsof needtoberegularlystrengthenedtobeeffective. ES:0.35MtCO2/yrin2012 LV:206USD2010/tCO2
UK:0.02MtCO2/yrby2020(estimatedin2011)
energyperformance.
Appliancestandards(MEPS)are MostOECDcountrieshaveadoptedMEPS(intheEUunder JP:0.1MtCO2/yrin2025(TopRunnerScheme, JP:51 USD2010/tCO2 (Top
rulesorguidelinesfora theEcodesignDirective).Voluntaryagreementswith 2007) Runner)
particularproductclassthatset equipmentmanufacturersareconsideredaseffective US:158MtCO2cumulativein2030(2010), Mor:13USD2010/tCO2 [5,6,7,8]
aminimumefficiencylevel,and alternativesinsomejurisdictions.TheJapaneseTopRunners updatingthestandard18MtCO2/yrin2040 AU:52USD2010/tCO2
usuallyprohibitthesaleof SchemeshaveprovenassuccessfulasMEPS(Sideriusand (2010) US:82USD2010/tCO2
underperformingproducts. Nakagami,2013)().Developingcountriesmaysuffera KE:0.3MtCO2/yr(forlightingonly) EU:245USD2010/tCO2
secondaryeffect,receivingproductsbannedfromother BF:0.01MtCO2/yr(lightingonly)
marketsorinefficientsecondhandproducts.
Energylabellingisthe Examplesincludevoluntaryendorsementlabelling(e.g., EU:237MtCO2 (19952020) AU:38USD2010/tCO2
mandatory(orvoluntary) EnergyStar)andmandatoryenergylabelling(e.g.,theEU OECDNAm:792MtCO2(19902010) [9,10,11]
provisionofinformationabout energylabel).Technicalspecificationsforthelabelshouldbe OECDEU:211MtCO2(19902010)
theenergy/otherresourceuse regularlyupdatedtoadjusttothebestproductsonthe
ofenduseproductsatthepoint market.MEPSandlabelsareusuallycoordinatedpolicy NL:0.11MtCO2/yr(19952004)
ofsale. measureswithcommontechnicalanalysis. DK:0.03MtCO2/yr(2004)
Buildinglabelsandcertificates Buildinglabelscouldbemandatory(forexampleintheEU)or SK:0.05MtCO2 (during20082010)formandatory EU:27 USD2010/tCO2 (2008 [12]
ratebuildingsrelatedtotheir voluntary(suchasBREEAM,CASBEE,Effinergie,LEED, certification 2010)formandatory
energyperformanceandprovide EuropeanGreenBuildinglabel,MinergieandPassivHaus). SK:0.001MtCO2(during20082010)for certification
credibleinformationaboutitto Labelsarebeginningtoinfluencemarketprices(Brounenand promotingvoluntarycertificationandaudits DK:almost0USD2010/tCO2
users/buyers. Kok,2011).
Mandatoryenergyaudits Auditsshouldbemandatoryandsubsidized(inparticularfor SK:0.001MtCO2 (during20082010)for FI:27.7 USD2010/tCO2 (2010) [2,12,13]
measuretheenergy developingcountries).Auditsarereinforcedbyincentivesor promotingvoluntarycertificationandaudits mandatoryauditprogramme
performanceofexisting regulationsthatrequiretheimplementationofthecost FI:0.036MtCO2(2010)
buildingsandidentifycost effectiverecommendedmeasures.
effectiveimprovement
potentials.
Sustainablepublicprocurement Settingahighlevelofefficiencyrequirementforallthe SK:0.01MtCO2 (introductionofsustainable SK:0.03USD2010/tCO2 (FI,2005;Van
istheorganizedpurchaseby productsthatthepublicsectorpurchases,aswellasrequiring procurementprinciple)(20112013) CN:10USD2010/tCO2 WieMcGrory
publicbodiesfollowingpreset energyefficientbuildingswhenrentingorconstructingthem, CN:3.7MtCO2(19932003) etal.,2006;
procurementregulations canachieveasignificantmarkettransformation,becausethe MX:0.002MtCO2(20042005) Govtof
incorporatingenergy publicsectorisresponsibleforalargeshareofthese UK:0.34MtCO2(2011) Slovakia,
performance/sustainability purchasesandinvestments.IntheEUtheEEDrequires AT:0.02MtCO2(2010) 2011;LDA,
requirements. MemberStatestoprocureonlymostefficientequipment.In 2011)
theUSthisiscarriedoutunderFEMP.
[12,14,15,
16]
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peryr)
Promotionofenergyservices Energyperformancecontracting(EPC)schemesenableESCOs EU:4055MtCO2 by2010 EU:mostlyatnocost [2,17,18]
(ESCOs)aimstoincreasethe orsimilar(Duplessisetal.,2012).Manycountrieshave AT:0.016MtCO2/yrin20082010 AT:nocost
marketandqualityofenergy recentlyadoptedpoliciesforthepromotionofEPCdelivered US:3.2MtCO2/yr HU:<1USD2010/tCO2
serviceoffers,inwhichsavings viaESCOs(Marinoetal.,2011). CN:34MtCO2 US:Publicsector:B/Cratio1.6,
areguaranteedandinvestment Privatesector:2.1
needsarecoveredfromcost
savings.
EnergyEfficiencyObligations Suppliers'obligationsandwhitecertificateshavebeen FR:6.6MtCO2/yr(20062009) FR:36 USD2010/tCO2
andWhiteCertificatesset, introducedinItaly,France,Poland,theUK,Denmarkandthe IT:21.5MtCO2(20052008) IT:12USD2010/tCO2
recordandprovethatacertain FlemishRegionofBelgiumandinAustralia.InalltheWhite UK:24.2MtCO2/yr(20022008) UK:24USD2010/tCO2 [19,20,21,
amountofenergyhasbeen Certificatesschemesthetargetsimposedbygovernments DK:66USD2010/tCO2 22,23,24,25,
savedatthepointofenduse. havebeensofarexceeded(Bertoldi,Rezessy,Oikonomouet DK:0.5MtCO2/yr(20062008) Flanders(BE):201 26,27]
Schemesmayincorporate al.,2010). Flanders(BE):0.15MtCO2(20082016)) USD2010/tCO2
trading.
Carbonmarketslimitthetotal Carboncapandtradeforthebuildingsectorisanemerging CDM:1267MtCO2(averagecumulativesavingper CDMenduseenergyefficiency
amountofallowedemissions. policyinstrument(e.g.,theTokyoCO2EmissionReduction projectfor32registeredCDMprojectson projects,In:113to96 [28,29,30]
Carbonemissionallowancesare Program,whichimposesacaponelectricityandenergy residentialbuildingefficiency,20042012) USD2010/tCO2
thendistributedandtraded. emissionsforlargecommercialbuildings),althoughthe JI:699MtCO2(cumulative)fromthesingleJI
programiscurrentlyunderchangeduetothespecialmeasure projectonresidentialbuildingenergyefficiency JIprojects(buildings):between
fortheGreatEastJapanEarthquake. (20062012) 122and238USD2010/tCO2
Energyandcarbontaxislevied Fiscaltoolscanbepowerful,becausetheincreased(relative) SE:1.15MtCO2/yr(2006) SE:8.5USD2010/tCO2 [31,32,33,
onfossilfuelsoronenergyusing priceofpollutingenergysourcesorlesssustainableproducts DE:24MtCO2cummulative(19992010) DE:96USD2010/tCO2 34]
products,basedontheirenergy isexpectedtocauseadecreaseinconsumption.However, DK:2.3MtCO2(2005) ee
demandand/ortheircarbon dependingonpriceelectricity,thetaxtypicallyshouldbe NL:3.74.85MtCO2/yr(19962020) NL:421to552USD2010/tCO2
contentrespectively. quitesubstantialtohaveaneffectonbehaviourandenergy (20002020)
efficiencyinvestments.
Useoftaxationcanbe ExamplesincludereducedVAT,accelerateddepreciation,tax TH:2.04MtCO2 (20062009) TH:26.5USD2010/tCO2
consideredasatypeofsubsidy, deductions,feebatesetc. IT:0.65MtCO2(20062010)
representingatransferoffunds FR:1MtCO2(2002) [35,36,37]
toinvestorsinenergyefficiency. US:88MtCO2(2006)
Grantsandsubsidiesare Incentives(e.g.,grantsandsubsidies)forinvestmentsin DK:170MtCO2 cummulative(19932003) DK:0.5 USD2010/tCO2
economicincentives,intheform energyefficiency,asprovidedforbuildingrenovationin UK:1.41MtCO2(20082009)
offundstransfer. Estonia,PolandandHungary CZ:0.05MtCO2(2007) UK:84.8USD2010/tCO2 [35,37,38,
AU:0.7MtCO2(20092011) FR:17.9USD2010/tCO2 39]
FR:0.4MtCO2(20022006)
Softloans(including Governmentalafiscalincentivetobanks,whichoffer TH:0.3MtCO2 (20082009) TH:108 USD2010/tCO2 (total
preferentialmortgages)are preferentialinterestratestocustomersandalsoincentives LT:0.33MtCO2/yr(20092020) costofloan) [37,40]
givenforcarbonreduction basedontheperformancesachieved,e.g.,inGermany(CO2 PL:0.98MtCO2(20072010)
measureswithlowinterest RehabilitationProgram).
rates.
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peryr)
Voluntaryandnegotiated Voluntaryprogrammes canbealsoappliedinthebuilt FI:9.2MtCO2 FI:0.15 USD2010/tCO2 [2,13,41,42]
agreementsaretailored environmentasintheNetherlandsandFinland,where NL:2.5MtCO2(20082020) NL:14USD2010/tCO2
contractsbetweenanauthority housingassociationandpublicpropertyownersagreeon DK:0.09MtCO2/yr(1996) DK:39USD2010/tCO2
andanotherentity,aimedat energyefficiencytargetswiththegovernment.Some
meetingapredefinedlevelof voluntaryagreementshaveabindingcharacter;astheagreed
energysavings. objectivesarebinding.Atcitylevel,anexampleisthe
CovenantofMayors
Awarenessraisingand Informationcampaignstostimulatebehaviouralchanges BR:612MtCO2/yr(2005) BR:69 USD2010/tCO2
informationcampaigns,are (e.g.,toturndownthethermostatby1Cduringtheheating UK:8.4USD2010/tCO2
programstransmittinggeneral season)aswellasinvestmentsinenergyefficiency UK:0.01MtCO2/yr(2005) EU:40.2USD2010/tCO2 [2,43,44,45,
messagestothewhole technologies;newdevelopmentsareseenintheareaof EU:0.0004MtCO2(2009) US:2098USD2010/tCO2 46]
population.Individualfeedback smartmeteringanddirectfeedback. FI:0.001MtCO2/yr(2010)
ischaracterizedbytheprovision UK:0.25%householdenergysaving/yr,thatis0.5
oftailoredinformation. MtCO2/yr(cumulated20112020)(billingand
metering)
PublicLeadershipProgrammes IE:0.033MtCO2 (20062010) ZA:25 USD2010/tCO2
arepublicpracticesgoing [2,47]
beyondtheminimum BR:6.512.2MtCO2/yr BR:125USD2010/tCO2
requirementsinordertoleadby
exampleanddemonstrategood
examples.
Notes: Country codes (ISO 3166): AT-Austria; AU-Australia; BE- Belgium; BF- Burkina Faso; BR- Brazil; CN- China; CZ-Czech Republic; DE- Germany; DK- Denmark; ES- Spain; EU-
European Union; FI- Finland; FR-France; HU- Hungary; IE- Ireland; IN-India; IT-Italy; JP- Japan; KE- Kenya; LT- Lithuania; LV- Latvia; Mor Morocco; MX- Mexico; NL-The
Netherlands; OECD EU- OECD countries in Europe; OECD N-Am: OECD countries in North-America; PL- Poland; SE-Sweden; SK- Slovak Republic; SL- Slovenia; TH- Thailand; UK-
United Kingdom; US- United States; ZA South Africa. References: [1](EC, 2003);[2] (Koeppel and rge-Vorsatz, 2007);[3](DECC, 2011); [4] (Govt of Latvia, 2011);[5](Kainou,
2007);[6] (AHAM, 2010); [7] (En.lighten, 2010);[8] (US EERE, 2010); [9] (IEA, 2003) [10] (Wiel and McMahon, 2005); [11] (Luttmer, 2006); [12] (Govt of Slovakia, 2011); [13]
(Government of Finland, 2011); [14] (FI, 2005); [15] (Van WieMcGrory et al., 2006);[16] (LDA, 2011); [17] (AEA, 2011); [19] (MNDH, 2011); [20] (Lees, 2006); [21] (Lees, 2008); [22]
(Lees, 2011); [23] (Pavan, 2008); [24] (Bertoldi and Rezessy, 2009); [25](Bertoldi et al., 2010b); [26] (Giraudet et al., 2011); [27] (Langham et al., 2010); [28] (BETMG, 2012); [29]
(UNEP Risoe, 2012); [30] (Bertoldi et al., 2013b); [31](Knigge and Grlach, 2005); [32] (Price et al., 2005); [33] (EPC, 2008); [34] (IEA, 2012b); [35] (GMCA, 2009); [36] (APERC,
2010); [37] (BPIE, 2010); [38] (Missaoui and Mourtada, 2010); [39] (Hayes et al., 2011); [40] (Galvin, 2012); [41] (Rezessy and Bertoldi, 2010); [42] (MIKR, 2011); [43] (Uitdenbogerd et
al., 2009); [44] (CPI, 2011); [45] (UK DE, 2011); [46] (CB, 2012); [47] (Government of Ireland, 2011).
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9.10.1.1 Policypackages
Nosinglepolicyissufficienttoachievethepotentialenergysavingsandthatcombination(packages)
ofpolicescanhavecombinedresultsthatarebiggerthanthesumoftheindividualpolicies
(Harmelinketal.,2008;Tambachetal.,2010;Weissetal.,2012;Murphyetal.,2012).TheEUsthe
EnergyEfficiencyDirective(EED)(EuropeanUnion,2012)has,since2008,requiredMemberStates
todescribecoordinatedpackagesofpoliciesintheirNationalEnergyEfficiencyActionPlans(NEEAP).
Markettransformationofdomesticappliancesinseveraldevelopedcountrieshasbeenachieved
throughacombinationofminimumstandards,energylabels,incentivesforthemostefficient
equipment,andaneffectivecommunicationcampaignforendusers(BozaKissetal.,2013).The
specificpolicies,regulations,programmesandincentivesneededarehighlydependentonthe
product,marketstructure,institutionalcapacity,andthebackgroundconditionsineachcountry.
Otherpackagesofmeasuresaremandatoryauditsandfinancialincentivesfortheretrofittingof
existingbuildings,withincentiveslinkedtotheimplementationoftheauditfindingsandminimum
efficiencyrequirements;voluntaryprogrammescoupledwithtaxexemptionsandotherfinancial
incentives(Murphyetal.,2012);andsuppliers'obligationsandwhitecertificates(and,inFrance,tax
credits)inadditiontoequipmentlabellingandstandardsinordertopromoteproductsbeyondthe
standardsrequirements(Bertoldi,Rezessy,Oikonomouetal.,2010).
9.10.1.2 Aholisticapproach
Energyefficiencyinbuildingsrequiresactionbeyondthepointofinvestmentinnewbuildings,
retrofit,andequipment.Aholisticapproachconsidersthewholelifespanofthebuilding,including
masterplanning,lifecycleassessmentandintegratedbuildingdesigntoobtainthebroadestimpact
possible,andthereforeneedstobeginattheneighbourhoodorcitylevel(seeChapter12).Inthe
holisticapproach,buildingcodes,design,operation,maintenance,andpostoccupancyevaluation
arecoordinated.Continuousmonitoringofbuildingenergyuseanddynamiccodesallowpoliciesto
closethegapbetweendesigngoalsandactualbuildingenergyperformance.Theuseofmodern
technologiestoprovidefeedbackonconsumptioninrealtimeallowsadjustmentofenergy
performanceandasafunctionofexternalenergysupply.Dynamicinformationcanalsobeusedfor
energycertificatesanddatabasestodisclosebuildingenergyperformance.Moreover,studieson
durabilityandclimatechangemitigationshowthatthelifespanofatechnicalsolutionisas
importantasthechoiceofmaterial,whichsignalstotheimportanceofrelatedpoliciessuchaseco
designdirectivesandmandatorywarranties(Mequignonetal.,2013a;b).
Anotherchallengeistheneedtodeveloptheskillsandtrainingtodeliver,maintain,andmanagelow
carbonbuildings.Toimplementthelargenumberofenergysavingprojects(buildingretrofitsornew
construction)alarge,skilledworkforceisneededtocarryouthighqualityworkatrelativelylowcost.
Implementationandenforcementofpoliciesarekeycomponentsofeffectivepolicy.Thesetwo
componentsusedtogetheraretheonlywaytoensurethattheexpectedresultsofthepolicyare
achieved.Developedcountriesarenowincreasingattentiontoproperimplementationand
enforcement(Jollandsetal.,2010),forexample,tosurveyequipmentefficiencywhenminimum
standardsareinplaceandtocheckcompliancewithbuildingcodes.Forexample,EUMemberStates
arerequiredtodevelopindependentcontrolsystemsfortheirbuildinglabellingschemes(European
Union,2012).Publicmoneyinvestedinimplementationandenforcementwillbehighlycost
effective(Tambachetal.,2010),asitcontributestotheoverallcosteffectivenessofpolicies.In
additiontoenforcement,expostevaluationofpoliciesisneededtoassesstheirimpactandto
reviewpolicydesignandstringencyortocomplementitwithotherpolicies.Implementationand
enforcementisstillamajorchallengefordevelopingcountriesthatlackmuchofthecapacity(e.g.,
testinglaboratoriesforequipmentefficiency)andknowledgetoimplementpoliciessuchas
standards,labelsandbuildingcodes.
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9.10.2 Emergingpolicyinstrumentsinbuildings
Recentreportshavecomprehensivelyreviewedbuildingrelatedpolicies(IPCC,2007;GEA,2012);
theremainderofthischapterfocusesonrecentdevelopmentsandimportantemerginginstruments.
Whiletechnicalefficiencyimprovementsarestillneededandareimportanttoreduceenergy
demand(Alcott,2008),increasesinenergyusearedrivenprimarilybyincreasingdemandforenergy
services(e.g.,builtspacepercapitaandadditionalequipment).Toaddressthis,policiesneedto
influenceconsumerbehaviourandlifestyle(Herring,2006;Sanquistetal.,2012)andtheconceptof
sufficiencyhasbeenintroducedintheenergyefficiencypolicydebate(Herring,2006;Oikonomouet
al.,2009).Policiestotargetsufficiencyaimatcappingordiscouragingincreasingenergyusedueto
increasedfloorspace,comfortlevels,andequipment.Policyinstrumentsinthiscategoryinclude:(1)
personalcarbontrading(i.e.,carbonmarketswithequitablepersonalallocations)thishasnotyet
beenintroducedanditssocialacceptability(Fawcett,2010)andimplementation(Eyre,2010)have
tobefurtherdemonstrated;(2)propertytaxation(e.g.,relatedtoabuildingsCO2emissions);and
(3)progressiveappliancestandardsandbuildingcodes,forexample,withabsoluteconsumption
limits(kWh/person/year)ratherthanefficiencyrequirements(kWh/m2/year)(Harrisetal.,2007).
Inordertoreduceenergydemand,policiesmayincludepromotingdensity,highspaceutilization,
andefficientoccupantbehaviourasincreasedfloorspaceentailsmoreenergyuse.Thismightbe
achieved,forexample,throughincentivesforreducingenergyconsumptionthesocalledenergy
savingfeedintariff(Bertoldietal.,2010a,2013a).
9.10.2.1. Newdevelopmentsinbuildingcodes(ordinance,regulation,orbylaws)
Alargenumberofjurisdictionshavenowset,orareconsidering,verysignificantstrengtheningof
therequirementsforenergyperformanceinbuildingcodes.Therearedebatesabouttheprecise
levelofambitionthatisappropriate,especiallywithregardtoNZEBmandates,whichcanbe
problematic(see9.3).TheEUisrequiringitsMemberStatestointroducebuildingcodessetatthe
costoptimalpointusingalifecyclecalculation,bothfornewbuildingsandthoseundergoingmajor
renovation.Asaresult,bytheendof2020,allnewbuildingsmustbenearlyzeroenergybylaw.
ManyMemberStates(e.g.,Denmark,Germany)haveannouncedprogressivebuildingcodesto
graduallyreducetheenergyconsumptionofbuildingstowardsnearlynetzerolevels.Thereisalso
actionwithinlocaljurisdictions,e.g.,thecityofBrusselshasmandatedthatallnewsocialandpublic
buildingsmustmeetPassivehouselevelsfrom2013,whileallnewbuildingshavetomeetthese
normsfrom2015(MoniteurBelge,2011;BE,2012;CSTC.be,2012).InChina,buildingcodeshave
beenadoptedthatseeksavingof50%frompreexistinglevels,withmuchincreasedprovisionfor
enforcement,leadingtohighexpectedsavings(Zhouetal.,2011b).Asdemonstratedinsections9.2
and9.9,thewidespreadproliferationoftheseambitiousbuildingcodes,togetherwithotherpolicies
toencourageefficiency,havealreadycontributedtototalbuildingenergyusetrendsstabilizing,or
evenslowingdown.
9.10.2.2. Energyefficiencyobligationschemesandwhitecertificates
Energyefficiencyobligationschemeswithorwithoutsocalledwhitecertificatesasincentive
schemeshavebeenappliedinsomeMemberStatesoftheEuropeanUnion(Bertoldietal.,2010a)
andAustralia(Crossley,2008),withmorerecentusesinBrazilandIndia.Whitecertificatesevolved
fromnontradableobligationsonmonopolyenergyutilities,alsoknownassuppliers'obligationsor
energyefficiencyresourcesstandards,largelybutnotonlyintheUnitedStates.Marketliberalization
initiallyledtoareductioninsuchactivity(rgeVorsatzetal.,2012b),drivenbyabeliefthatsuch
approacheswerenotneededin,orincompatiblewith,competitivemarkets,althoughthisisnot
correct(Vineetal.,2003).Theirmainusehasbeeninregulatedmarketsdrivenbyobligationson
energycompaniestosaveenergy(BertoldiandRezessy,2008).Theuseofsuppliersobligations
beganintheUKin2000,andtheseobligationsarenowsignificantinanumberofEUcountries,
notablyUK,FranceandItaly(Eyreetal.,2009).Energysupplierobligationschemesareakeypartof
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EUpolicyforenergyefficiencyandtheEnergyEfficiencyDirective(EuropeanUnion,2012)requires
allEUMemberStatestointroducethispolicyoralternativeschemes.Preciseobjectives,traded
quantityandrulesdifferacrosscountries.Costeffectivenessistypicallyverygood(Bertoldi,2012).
However,whitecertificatestendtoincentivizelowcost,massmarketmeasuresratherthandeep
retrofits,andthereforethereareconcernsthatthispolicyapproachmaynotbebestsuitedtofuture
policyobjectives(Eyreetal.,2009).
9.10.3 Financingopportunities
9.10.3.1. Newfinancingschemesfordeepretrofits
Energyefficiencyinbuildingsisnotasinglemarket:itcoversadiverserangeofenduseequipment
andtechnologiesandrequiresverylargenumbersofsmall,dispersedprojectswithadiverserange
ofdecisionmakers.Asthechapterhasdemonstrated,manytechnologiesinthebuildingsectorare
provenandeconomic:ifproperlyfinanced,theinvestmentcostsarepaidbackovershortperiods
fromenergycostsavings.However,manypotentiallyattractiveenergyinvestmentsdonotmeetthe
shorttermfinancialreturncriteriaofbusinesses,investors,andindividuals,orthereisnoavailable
financing.Whilesignificantsavingsarepossiblewithrelativelymodestinvestmentpremiums,afirst
costsensitivebuyer,oronelackingfinancing,willneveradopttransformativesolutions.Major
causesofthisgaparetheshortageofrelevantfinanceandofdeliverymechanismsthatsuitthe
specificsofenergyefficiencyprojectsandthelackinsomemarketsofpipelinesofbankable
energyefficiencyprojects.Creativebusinessmodelsfromenergyutilities,businesses,andfinancial
institutionscanovercomefirstcosthurdles(VeeraboinaandYesuratnam,2013).Oneinnovative
exampleisforenergyefficiencyinvestmentfundstocapitalizeonthelowerriskofmortgagelending
onlowenergyhousing;thefundstoprovidesuchinvestmentcanbeattractivetosocially
responsibleinvestmentfunds.InGermany,throughtheKfWdevelopmentbank,energyefficiency
loanswithlowinterestrateareofferedmakingitattractivetoendusers.Theschemehastriggered
manybuildingrefurbishments(Harmelinketal.,2008).
Anotherexampleisthe'GreenDeal,whichisanewinitiativebytheUKgovernmentdesignedto
facilitatetheretrofittingofenergysavingmeasurestoallbuildings.Suchschemesallowsforcharges
onelectricitybillsinordertorecoupcostsofbuildingsenergyefficiencyimprovementsbyprivate
firmstoconsumers(BichardandThurairajah,2013).Thefinanceistiedtotheenergymeterrather
thanthebuildingowner.TheGreenDealwasexpectedprimarilytofinanceshortpaybackmeasures
previouslycoveredbythesuppliersobligation,ratherthandeepretrofits.However,theUK
governmentdoesnotsubsidizetheloaninterestrate,andcommercialinterestratesarenot
generallyattractivetoendusers.TakeupofenergyefficiencyintheGreenDealistherefore
expectedtobemuchlowerthaninasupplierobligation(RosenowandEyre,2013).
InareasoftheUnitedStateswithPropertyAssessedCleanEnergy(PACE)legislationinplace,
municipalitygovernmentsofferaspecificbondtoinvestorsandthenusethistofinancelendingto
consumersandbusinessesforenergyretrofits(Headenetal.,2010).Theloansarerepaidoverthe
assignedterm(typically15or20years)viaanannualassessmentontheirpropertytaxbill.Legal
concernsabouttheeffectofPACElendingonmortgagesforresidentialbuildings(VanNostrand,
2011)haveresultedintheapproachbeingmainlydirectedtonondomesticbuildings.
ESCOsprovidesolutionsforimprovingenergyefficiencyinbuildingsbyguaranteeingthatenergy
savingsareabletorepaytheefficiencyinvestment,thusovercomingfinancialconstraintstoenergy
efficiencyinvestments.TheESCOmodelhasbeenfoundtobeeffectiveindevelopedcountriessuch
asGermany(Marinoetal.,2011)andtheUnitedStates.InthelastdecadeESCOshavebeencreated
innumberofdevelopingcountries(e.g.,China,Brazil,andSouthKorea)supportedbyinternational
financialinstitutionsandtheirrespectivegovernments(UNEPSBCI,2007;Dali,2009).Sincethe
introductionofaninternationalcooperationprojectbytheChinesegovernmentandWorldBankin
1998,amarketbasedenergyperformancecontractmechanismandESCOindustryhasdevelopedin
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China(Dali,2009)withChinesegovernmentsupport.PoliciesforthesupportofESCOsindeveloping
countriesincludethecreationofaSuperESCOs(Limaye,2011)bygovernmentalagencies.Financing
environmentsforESCOsneedtobeimprovedtoensuretheyoperateoptimallyandsourcesof
financing,suchasdebtandequity,needtobelocated.Possiblefinancingsourcesarecommercial
banks,venturecapitalfirms,equityfunds,leasingcompanies,andequipmentmanufacturers(Dali,
2009).InsocialhousinginEurope,fundingcanbeprovidedthroughEnergyPerformanceCertificates
(EPC),inwhichanESCOinvestsinacomprehensiverefurbishmentandrepaysitselfthroughthe
generatedsavings.SocialhousingoperatorsandESCOshaveestablishedthelegal,financial,and
technicalframeworktodothis(MilinandBullier,2011).
9.10.3.2. OpportunitiesinFinancingforGreenBuildings
Theexistingglobalgreenbuildingmarketisvaluedatapproximately550billionUSD2010andis
expectedtogrowthroughto2015,withAsiaanticipatedtobethefastestgrowingregion(Lewis,
2010).Asurveyonresponsiblepropertyinvesting(RPI)(UNEPFI,2009),coveringkeymarkets
aroundtheworld,hasshownitispossibletoachieveacompetitiveadvantageandgreaterreturnon
propertyinvestmentbyeffectivelytacklingenvironmentalandsocialissueswheninvestinginreal
estate(UNEPFIandPRIsignatories,2008).Forexample,inJapan,newrentalapartmentbuildings
equippedwithsolarpowersystemsandenergysavingdeviceshadsignificantlyhigheroccupancy
ratesthantheaverageforotherpropertiesintheneighbourhood,andinvestmentreturnrateswere
alsohigher(MLIT,2010a;b).Asurveycomparingrentandvacancyratesofbuildings(Watson,2010)
showedrentsforLEEDcertifiedbuildingswereconsistentlyhigherthanforuncertifiedbuildings.In
manymunicipalitiesinJapan,assessmentbytheComprehensiveAssessmentSystemforBuilt
EnvironmentEfficiency(CASBEE)andnotificationofassessmentresultsarerequiredatthetimeof
construction(Murakamietal.,2004).Severalfinancialproductsareavailablethatprovideadiscount
ofmorethan1%onhousingloans,dependingonthegradereceivedbytheCASBEEassessment.This
hasbeencontributingtothediffusionofgreenbuildingsthroughfinancialschemes(IBEC,2009).In
addition,ahousingecopointsystemwasimplementedin2009inJapan,broadlydividedbetweena
homeappliancesecopointsystemandahousingecopointsystem.Inthehousingecopointsystem,
housingwhichsatisfiestheTopRunnerlevelstandardsaretargeted,bothnewlyconstructedand
existingbuildings.Thisprogrammehascontributedtothepromotionofgreenbuildings,with
160,000(approximately20%ofthetotalmarket)applicationsforsubsidiesfornewlyconstructed
buildingsin2010.Inexistingbuildings,thenumberofwindowreplacementshasincreased,andhas
attractedmuchattention(MLIT,2012).
9.10.4 Policiesindevelopingcountries
Economicinstrumentsandincentivesareveryimportantmeanstoencouragestakeholdersand
investorsinthebuildingsectortoadoptmoreenergyefficientapproachesinthedesign,
construction,andoperationofbuildings(Huovila,2007).Thissectionprovidesanoverviewof
financialinstrumentscommonlyappliedinthedevelopingworldtopromoteemissionsreductionin
buildingsector.
Intermsofcarbonmarkets,theCleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM)hasagreatpotentialto
promoteenergyefficiencyandloweremissionsinbuildingsector.However,untilrecentlyithas
bypassedthesectorentirely,duetosomemethodologicalobstaclestoenergyefficiencyprojects
(Michaelowaetal.,2009).However,awholebuildingbaselineandmonitoringmethodology
approvedin2011maypavethewayformorebuildingprojects(MichaelowaandHayashi,2011).
Since2009,theshareofCDMprojectsinthebuildingssectorhasincreased,particularlywithregard
toefficientlightingschemes(UNEPRisoe,2012).ThevoluntarymarkethascomplementedtheCDM
asafinancingmechanism,forexampleforsolarhomesystemsprojects(Michaelowaetal.,2009;
MichaelowaandHayashi,2011).
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Publicbenefitschargesarefinancingmechanismsmeanttoraisefundsforenergyefficiency
measuresandtoacceleratemarkettransformationinbothdevelopedanddevelopingcountries
(UNEPSBCI,2007).InBrazil,allenergydistributionutilitiesarerequiredtospendaminimumof1%
oftheirrevenueonenergyefficiencyinterventionswhileatleastaquarterofthisfundisexpectedto
bespentonenduserefficiencyprojects(UNEPSBCI,2007).
Utilitydemandsidemanagement(DSM)maybethemostviableoptiontoimplementandfinance
energyefficiencyprogramsinsmallerdevelopingcountries(SarkarandSingh,2010).Inadeveloping
countrycontext,itiscommonpracticetohouseDSMprogrammeswithinthelocalutilitiesdueto
theirhealthyfinancialmeansandstrongtechnicalandimplementationcapacities,forexample,in
Argentina,SouthAfrica,Brazil,India,Thailand,UruguayandVietnam(WinklerandVanEs,2007;
SarkarandSingh,2010).Eskom,theSouthAfricanelectricityutility,usesitsDSMfundsmainlyto
financeloadmanagementandenergyefficiencyimprovementincludingmillionsoffreeissued
compactfluorescentlampsthathavebeeninstalledinhouseholds(WinklerandVanEs,2007).
Capitalsubsidies,grantsandsubsidizedloansareamongthemostfrequentlyusedinstrumentsfor
implementationofincreasedenergyefficiencyprojectsinbuildings.Financialsubsidyisusedasthe
primarysupportingfundintheimplementationofretrofitprojectsinChina(Dongyan,2009).In
recentyears,theWorldBankGrouphassteadilyincreasedenergyefficiencylendingtothehighest
lendingeverinthefiscalyearof2009ofUSD20103.3billion,ofwhichUSD20101.7billioncommitted
investmentsinthesameyearalone(SarkarandSingh,2010).Examplesincludeenergyefficient
lightingprogrammesinMali,energyefficiencyprojectsinbuildingsinBelarus,carbonfinance
blendedinnovativefinancingtoreplaceoldchillers(airconditioning)withenergyefficientand
chlorofluorocarbonfree(CFC)chillersincommercialbuildingsinIndia(SarkarandSingh,2010).The
GovernmentofNepalhasbeenprovidingsubsidiesinthepastfewyearstopromotetheuseofsolar
homesystems(SHS)inruralhouseholds(DhakalandRaut,2010).Thecertifiedemissionreductions
(CERs)accumulatedfromthisprojectwereexpectedtobetradedinordertosupplementthe
financingofthelightingprogram.TheGlobalEnvironmentalFacility(GEF)hasdirectedasignificant
shareofitsfinancialresourcestoSHSandtheWorldBanksimilarlyhasprovidedanumberofloans
forSHSprojectsinAsia(Wamukonya,2007).TheGEFhasprovidedagrantof219millionUSD2010to
finance23offgridSHSprojectsin20countries(Wamukonya,2007).
9.11 Gapsinknowledgeanddata
Addressingthesemaingapsandproblemswouldimprovetheunderstandingofmitigationin
buildings:
Thelackofadequatebottomupdataleadstoadominanceoftopdownandsupplyfocused
decisionsaboutenergysystems.
Misinformationandsimplifiedtechniquesposeriskstoprovidingafullunderstandingof
integratedandregionallyadequatebuildingsystems,andthisleadstofragmentedactions
andweakerresults.
Weakorpoorinformationaboutopportunitiesandcostsaffectsoptimaldecisionsand
appropriateallocationoffinancialresources.
Energyindicatorsrelatetoefficiency,butrarelytosufficiency.
Improvedandmorecomprehensivedatabasesonreal,measuredbuildingenergyuse,and
capturingbehaviourandlifestylesarenecessarytodevelopexemplarypracticesfromniches
tostandard.
Continuousmonitoringandconstantmodificationofperformanceanddynamicsofcodes
wouldallowimplementationtocatchupwiththepotentialforefficiencyimprovementsand
cobenefits;thiswouldalsoprovidebetterfeedbacktothepolicymakingprocess,to
education,tocapacitybuilding,andtotraining.
67of103
Quantificationandmonetizationof(positiveandnegative)externalitiesoverthebuildinglife
cycleshouldbewellintegratedintodecisionmakingprocesses.
9.12 Frequentlyaskedquestions
FAQ9.1.Whataretherecentadvancesinbuildingsectortechnologiesandknowhow
sincetheAR4thatareimportantfromamitigationperspective?
Recentadvancesininformationtechnology,design,construction,andknowhowhaveopenednew
opportunitiesforatransformativechangeinbuildingsectorrelatedemissionsthatcancontributeto
meetingambitiousclimatetargetsatsociallyacceptablecosts,oroftenatnetbenefits.Main
advancesdonotlieinmajortechnologicaldevelopments,butratherintheirextendedsystemic
application,partiallyasaresultofadvancedpolicies,aswellasinimprovementsintheperformance
andreductionsinthecostofseveraltechnologies.Forinstance,thereareover57,000buildings
meetingPassiveHousestandardandnearlyzeroenergynewconstructionhasbecomethelawin
the27MemberStatesoftheEuropeanUnion.Evenhigherenergyperformancelevelsarebeing
successfullyappliedtonewandexistingbuildings,includingnonresidentialbuildings.Thecostshave
beengraduallydeclining;forresidentialbuildingsatthelevelofPassivehousestandardtheyaccount
for58%ofconventionalbuildingcosts,andsomenetzeroornearlyzeroenergycommercial
buildingshavingbeenbuiltatequalorevenlowercoststhanconventionalones(see9.3and9.7).
FAQ9.2.Howmuchcouldthebuildingsectorcontributetoambitiousclimatechange
mitigationgoals,andwhatwouldbethecostsofsuchefforts?
AccordingtotheGEAefficiencypathway,by2050globalheatingandcoolingenergyusecould
decreasebyasmuchas46%ascomparedto2005,iftodaysbestpracticesinconstructionand
retrofitknowhowarebroadlydeployed(rgeVorsatzetal.,2012c)).Thisisdespitetheover150%
increaseinfloorareaduringthesameperiod,aswellassignificantincreaseinthermalcomfort,as
wellastheeradicationoffuelpoverty(rgeVorsatzetal.,2012c).Thecostsofsuchscenariosare
alsosignificant,butaccordingtomostmodels,thesavingsinenergycoststypicallymorethan
exceedtheinvestmentcosts.Forinstance,GEA(2012)projectsanapproximately24billionUSD2010
incumulativeadditionalinvestmentneedsforrealizingtheseadvancedscenarios,butestimatesan
over65billionUSD2010incumulativeenergycostsavingsuntil2050.
FAQ9.3.Whichpolicyinstrument(s)havebeenparticularlyeffectiveand/orcosteffective
inreducingbuildingsectorGHGemission(ortheirgrowth,indevelopingcountries)?
PolicyinstrumentsinthebuildingsectorhaveproliferatedsincetheAR4,withnewinstrumentssuch
aswhitecertificates,preferentialloans,grants,progressivebuildingcodesbasedonprinciplesof
costoptimumminimumrequirementsofenergyperformanceandlifecycleenergyusecalculation,
energysavingfeedintariffsaswellassuppliersobligations,andothermeasuresintroducedin
severalcountries.Amongthemostcosteffectiveinstrumentshavebeenbuildingcodesandlabels,
appliancestandardsandlabels,supplierobligations,publicprocurementandleadershipprograms.
Mostoftheseareregulatoryinstruments.However,mostinstrumentshavebestpractice
applicationsthathaveachievedCO2reductionsatlowornegativesocialcosts,signallingthatabroad
portfoliooftoolsisavailabletogovernmentstocutbuildingrelatedemissionscosteffectively.
Appliancestandardsandlabels,buildingcodes,promotionofESCOs,CDMandJI,andfinancingtools
(grantsandsubsidies)havesofarperformedasthemostenvironmentallyeffectivetoolsamongthe
documentedcases.However,theenvironmentaleffectivenessalsovariesalotbycase.Basedona
detailedanalysisofpolicyevaluations,virtuallyanyoftheseinstrumentscanperformveryeffective
(environmentallyand/orcostwise)iftailoredtolocalconditionsandpolicysettings,andif
implementedandenforcedwell(BozaKissetal.,2013).Thereforeitislikelythatthechoiceof
instrumentislesscrucialthanwhetheritisdesigned,applied,implementedandenforcedwelland
consistently.
68of103
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