Likely Republican Primary Voter Survey (N=800, +/- 3.

46%, 35% cell phones)

February 14 -17, 2016

With Republicans holding complete control in this state for over 20 years, the most logical pre-session survey to conduct
would be likely Republican primary voters. We are not guessing the outcomes of hypothetical primaries next summer
and are also not attempting to divine what the atmosphere will be during next years primaries as we are a political
eternity away from then. However, there are a few glaring take-aways from this research book and that is the President
& the Governor are as strong as new rope and the field for any hypothetical primary matchups next year are wide open.

As you read through this memo, please keep in mind the sample. We pulled from voters who had voted in at least one
of the last three Republican primaries (2012, 2014 & 2016) but not the presidential preference last year. This means the
sample is older, with 81% over 50 years of age (32% over 75 years of age) and 90% white. Therefore we wont dive into
the internals too much because there is very little distinction from the top lines on the political questions.

2010 - 34% TO 2012 30% TO 2014 24% TO 2016 33% TO

Age Share Age Share Age Share Age Share
18-34 6% 18-34 7% 18-34 5% 18-34 6%
35-49 18% 35-49 15% 35-49 12% 35-49 12%
50-64 33% 50-64 32% 50-64 31% 50-64 31%
65+ 43% 65+ 46% 65+ 52% 65+ 51%
Race Share Race Share Race Share Race Share
Black 1% Black 1% Black 1% Black 1%
Hispanic 8% Hispanic 9% Hispanic 8% Hispanic 8%
Other 2% Other 2% Other 2% Other 3%
White 89% White 88% White 89% White 88%

Atmospheric Conditions

Direction of the State: +51% Net Right Track

Its not surprising that primary voters are glowing in their approval of their partys leadership at the state level as 71% of
the voters in this survey say the state is headed in the right direction while only 20% feel things have gotten off on the
wrong track.

Presidential Job Approval: +67% Net Approve (81% Approve 14% Disapprove)
Even with an endless, round the clock bombardment of negative coverage in the main stream media, the base remains
unfazed in their approval of the President, giving him an 81% approval rating, with 56% strongly approving of the job he is
doing as President. These numbers shouldnt come as a surprise because A) these are primary voting Republicans and B)
the President is only doing what he told the voters he would do.

Governors Job Approval: +67% Net Approve (81% Approve 14% Disapprove)
Similarly, the Governor is enjoying an identical sky high approval rating as the President but with 41% of those surveyed
strongly approving of the job he is doing as Governor. In essence the Governor enters his second to last session with the
highest marks from Republicans that we have tracked during his term.

US Senator Job Approval: +47% Net Approve (69% Approve 22% Disapprove)
Senator Rubio enjoys a high net approval but his overall approval is soft with 44% somewhat approving of the job he is
doing as Senator.
 Key Figures in the Republican Party

We tested 8 figures within the party today and the results are very similar to what weve found in past surveys. The
legislative leaders have low overall name ID. Attorney General Bondi continues to have net favorability ratings above
50% as she has for most of her time in office in our historical surveys and this is logical with the amount of earned media
she has received over her time on the cabinet. We did not include the CFO in this rotation as he is leaving his post after
session.

Way Too Early Ballot Tests

We tested hypothetical ballot tests for Governor and the cabinet and the low name IDs are obviously forcing ballots that
are largely undecided. In our hypothetical 4-way race between Commissioner Putnam, Speaker Corcoran, Chairman
Latvala and businessman Ron Bergeron, 71% said they would be undecided with Putnam +18% over Corcoran (22% - 4%).
We also tested several hypotheticals for the other open cabinet slots and all produced the results we expected, with
undecided winning over 80% in any scenario we provided. There is no news to report here.

Policy Debates

We took multiple stabs at attempting to run through the policy issues that are dominating this session. And while we did
find consensus over the Senate proposal to buy land south of Lake Okeechobee, it was more difficult to get the voter to
comprehend a fair and accurate understanding of the economic incentive & Visit Florida debate.

55% of those surveyed agreed that The Florida legislature is spending our tax dollars wisely but the support is
soft with 44% somewhat agreeing with this sentiment.

Overall awareness on these debates is low in this survey, regardless of how the question is tested. Furthermore,
the nuances of the policy points used to better describe "incentives for job growth" vs "corporate welfare" are far
too complex for decisive support for either position in this survey.
 When we described the two sides of the debate over Visit Florida & Enterprise Florida, the results were
contradictory. In an effort to get a fair description of the debate, Im afraid we ended up with a set of questions
which were too difficult for the voter to comprehend on a phone, therefore we are not able to make any
meaningful conclusions based on the results. This debate is contained within the beltway for now and talking
points can easily get a voter to one side of the argument or the other.

We did find unanimity in the messages we tested surrounding SB 10 and using tax money to buy land south of
Lake Okeechobee. Primary voters are not supportive of bonding billions of dollars for these types of
environmental projects and they especially oppose using eminent domain.

Our first question was designed to test the concept of borrowing money for environmental purposes and if that would
cast a negative sentiment on the proposal.

The state should continue to buy private farmland for environmental purposes and take it out of production, even if
that means the state must borrow the money to purchase bonds.
o Agree: 23%
o Disagree: 64%
o Unsure: 14%
o Subgroups worth noting:
-Voters in the 4 media markets in North Florida & the Panhandle: 18% Favor, 69% Oppose
-Voters in the Jacksonville media market: 16% Favor, 71% Oppose

Secondly, with news that there are no willing sellers of their land, we decided to ask the only other logical option to
accomplish this policy proposal:

The legislature should use eminent domain to buy privately owned farm land for environmental purposes.
o Agree: 21%
o Disagree: 65%
o Unsure: 13%
o Subgroups worth noting:
-Voters in the 4 media markets in North Florida & the Panhandle: 22% Favor, 64% Oppose
-Voters in the Jacksonville media market: 18% Favor, 70% Oppose

We then tested the policy but highlighted the state would have to bond billions of dollars for its share and followed it up
with an informed ballot question as shown below:

Some State Legislators have proposed a plan to reduce harmful water discharges from Lake Okeechobee by
building a reservoir that would store water south of Lake Okeechobee. This plan would cost nearly four billion
dollars and the state would have to borrow billions of dollars to pay for its share of this purchase. Would you
favor or oppose this proposal?
o FAVOR: 24%
o OPPOSE: 59%
o Unsure: 17%
o Subgroup worth noting:
-Voters in the 4 media markets in North Florida & the Panhandle: 17% Favor, 69% Oppose
Would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who supports borrowing billions in tax dollars in order to
purchase productive farm land for environmental purposes in South Florida.

o More Likely: 18%

o Less Likely: 63%
o No Difference/Unsure: 19%
o Subgroups worth noting:
-Voters in the 4 media markets in North Florida & the Panhandle: 15% More Likely, 69% Less Likely
-Voters within the two I-4 media markets: 15% More Likely, 65% Less Likely