Streamflow Forecast, February 2017

Natural Resources Conservation Service
Nevada Water Supply Outlook Report

February 1, 2017
Photo Credit: Dave Hahl, Mountain Manager, Mt Rose Ski Tahoe

Nevada Department of Transportations rotary plows clearing Slide Mountain Road, January 2017
Historic Snow!
Its been dubbed #JanuBuried on Twitter and one thing is for sure, January 2017 will go down in
the lore of historic storm cycles for the Sierra Nevada. End of month totals are impressive. Ski
resorts reported up to 300 inches of snowfall in just over 3 weeks. SNOTELs set monthly records
for gaining more snow than in any previous January. The storms brought flooding to western
Nevada, followed by snow levels dropping to the valley floor. Residents in some Lake Tahoe
communities were told to shelter in place and avoid uphill facing windows inside their homes due
to extreme avalanche danger. Chairlifts got buried, power outages were common due to snow
laden trees falling on powerlines, and a couple of lucky guys survived burial inside their car when
an avalanche crossed a road. When the skies cleared, Lake Tahoe had risen nearly 2 feet in one
month and the 2012-2015 drought is being talked about in the past tense.
users should take this uncertainty into consideration when
Background information about this report: making operational decisions by selecting forecasts
This report provides an analysis of water supply conditions across corresponding to the level of risk they are willing to assume
Nevada and a part of the eastern Sierra in California. It is about the amount of water to be expected. If users anticipate
receiving a lesser supply of water perhaps due to a dry climate
published monthly from January to May. First of month data are
outlook for the coming months, or if they wish to increase their
summarized and used to forecast summer streamflow. The
chances of having an adequate supply of water for their
report is best read in digital format which allows readers to click
operations, they may want to base their decisions on the 90% or
on the blue internet links.
70% exceedance probability forecasts, or something in between.
Streamflow Forecasts: Most of the annual streamflow in the On the other hand, if users are concerned about receiving too
western United States originates as snowfall that accumulates in much water, for example if there is a threat of flooding, they may
the mountains during the winter. As the snowpack accumulates, want to base their decisions on the 30% or 10% exceedance
hydrologists can estimate the runoff that will occur when the probability forecasts, or something in between. Regardless of
snow melts. Measurements of snow water equivalent (SWE) at the forecast value users choose, they should be prepared to deal
snow courses and SNOTEL sites, along with precipitation, with either more or less water.
antecedent streamflow, and El Nio / Southern Oscillation
Streamflow Adjustments: Forecasts are for unimpaired flows.
indices are used in computerized statistical models to produce
Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream
streamflow runoff forecasts. Forecasts in this report give the
lakes, reservoirs and diversions. Certain forecasts are adjusted
total volume of water expected to flow past a location during a
for these structures; these are footnoted with a (2) in the report.
specified period, such as April 1 to July 31.
A summary list of all streamflow adjustments is provided on the
Most streamflow forecast volumes in this report are expressed back cover of this report.
in KAF (thousand-acre-feet). Some smaller streams are forecast
Normal (Averages and Medians): Throughout this report
in acre-feet and noted as such in parentheses after the forecast
conditions are expressed as a percent of normal. In this
name, such as Marlette Lake Inflow (acre-feet). Forecasts for
context normal is meant to be a catch-all word that refers to
Lake Tahoe, Pyramid Lake and Walker Lake are expressed in feet
the statistical average for the 1981-2010 period when related to
of water surface elevation change during the forecast period. A
streamflow, precipitation and reservoir storage, and the
rise in lake level is indicated by a positive value, while a drop in
statistical median for the 1981-2010 period when related to
lake level is indicated by a negative number. The East Fork Carson
snowpack. For an explanation of why snowpack uses median
River has two recession forecasts that provide the dates when
visit: www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/normals/median_average.htm.
spring river flows are expected to recede to 500 cfs and 200 cfs
Soil moisture has only been measured at SNOTEL sites since
levels as the snowmelt decreases in late spring.
~2006. Due to the short record the soil moisture normal is based
Interpreting Streamflow Forecasts: Forecasts of any kind are not on the short-term average for water years 2006-2016.
perfect. Streamflow forecast uncertainty arises from three
Maximums and Minimums: Graphs in this report display Max
primary sources: (1) uncertain knowledge of future weather
and Min lines for snowpack, precipitation and soil moisture.
conditions, (2) uncertainty in the forecasting procedure, and (3)
For snow and precipitation these are basin-wide, daily
errors in the data. The forecast, therefore, must be interpreted
maximums and minimums for water years 1981-2016; for soil
not as a single value but rather as a range of values with specific
moisture the period is 2006-2016.
probabilities of occurrence. The middle of the range is expressed
by the 50% exceedance probability forecast. There is a 50% Watershed Snowpack Analysis: These tables summarize the
chance that the actual flow will be above, and a 50% chance that snowpack percent of median for each main basin, and its
the actual flow will be below, this value. Unless otherwise stated subbasins. Percentages are based on SNOTEL and snow course
the 50% exceedance forecast is the one referred to in the text measurements. By selecting Nevada and report type Snow a
of this report. To quantify the range around this 50% value, four full report with station-by-station data can be found here:
other forecasts are provided in the forecast tables, two smaller http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/basin.html.
values (90% and 70% exceedances) and two larger values (30%
and 10% exceedances). There is a 90% chance that the actual
This publication can be found online at:
flow will be more than the minimum forecast (90% exceedance
www.nv.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/
forecast). Likewise there is a 10% chance the actual flow will be
more than the maximum forecast (10% exceedance forecast). For questions contact:
Other forecasts can be interpreted similarly. The wider the Jeff Anderson, Nevada NRCS Snow Survey
spread between these values, the more forecast uncertainty. jeff.anderson@nv.usda.gov
As the season progresses, forecasts become more accurate, 775-857-8500 x152
primarily because a greater portion of the future weather
To join a subscription list for future reports send an email
conditions become known; this is reflected by a narrowing of the
with subscribe in subject to:
range around the 50% exceedance probability forecast. Water
jeff.anderson@nv.usda.gov
Nevada Water Supply Outlook Report
February 1, 2017
SUMMARY
Jackpot! The long talked about drought is a thing of the past and this years water is banked as snow on
the mountainside, if not already in a reservoir. January 2017 will go down as one of the biggest monthly
payouts to western Nevadas water supply of all time. The Tahoe, Truckee, Carson and Walker basins got
a whole winters worth of snow in about three weeks. February 1 snowpacks and water year
precipitation have already eclipsed a normal years supply in these Sierra basins. The rest of northern
Nevada is well on its way to achieving the same. Soil moisture is high and will help deliver an efficient
runoff once spring melt begins. Streamflow forecasts are well above average at 130-225% of average
and most reservoirs are expected to fill. We still have a couple months of winter to go. The start of
February is picking up where January left off, with a series of atmospheric river storms taking aim at the
Sierra. At this point how all this water will make its way downstream remains a question. The best case
scenario would be snow rather than rain until April, followed by a gradual melt where the streamflow
remains in its banks.
SNOWPACK
February 1 snowpacks range from 178-197% of median in the Sierra, and 142-160% of median for the
rest of northern Nevada. Statewide, this months snow measurements rank in the top five at most
SNOTEL sites with at least 35 years of data. Some SNOTELs in the Sierra set new February 1 records,
which is amazing considering a month ago these sites were below normal. This Februarys snowpack
ranks in the top handful of years at snow courses with at least 60 years of data both in the Sierra and in
the Upper Humboldt and Owyhee basins. The intensity of storms during January was astounding. Storms
added three to four times the normal January amount of snow in the Sierra, setting new SNOTEL records
for the month. Similar records were broken in the Humboldt basin, as well as Utah, Wyoming and
Colorado. In the Sierra, the increase in snow water during January 2017 was equivalent to getting a full
winters worth of snow in just over three weeks. Snow percentages in the Lake Tahoe basin tripled
between January 1 and February 1, leaping from 62% to 190% of median. The Truckee, Carson and
Walker basins percentages doubled during this period. Compared to median peak amounts, February 1
snow water is already exceeding that of a normal winter in the Sierra and the Upper Humboldt Basins.
Most other areas of Nevada need a little more snow to reach normal year status. For southern Nevada,
the Upper Colorado and Virgin river basins are also having a stellar winter. The snowpack for the
Colorado River above Lake Powell is 158% of median, and 92% of its median peak amount. The Virgin
Rivers snowpack is 225% of median, already 127% of its median peak amount.
PRECIPITATION
Water year precipitation since the start of October is 200-233% of average in the Sierra basins, and 131-
157% for the rest of northern Nevada. Monthly precipitation in January was three to four-and-a-half
times average at SNOTEL sites in the Sierra, and about twice normal for the remainder of northern
Nevada. The Tahoe City gage, which dates back to 1910, puts Januarys monthly precipitation in the
Sierra in context. It recorded 21.33 inches which ranks second highest ever measured in January. The
Sierra basins have already surpassed an average water year when it comes to precipitation. Other parts
of Nevada still have a ways to go, but most are already 60-70% of their average annual totals, far ahead
of schedule for this date. If you have been tracking water year precipitation using Update Reports, you
may have noticed missing data in the Sierra this winter. Missing data are signified by an -M. The reason
for this is that many SNOTEL precipitation gages were overloaded with so much snow, in so short a
period. Precipitation data are being estimated for these plugged gages by using the gains in snow water
from the snow pillow sensor. This technique works well, but requires human intervention. If you see
missing data, use these tips to look back a few days, until you find a day when data has been estimated.
With enough sun, eventually the snow plugs will clear and this data will no longer be missing.
SOIL MOISTURE
Soil moisture at SNOTEL stations shows that soils are at or near maximums for February in the Sierra,
Humboldt, Owyhee and Snake basins based on basin soil moisture graphs.
RESERVOIRS
February 1 reservoir storage is the best it has been in years. The outlook for filling northern Nevadas
key reservoirs looks good. The precipitation and runoff in January produced impressive water level rises:
Bridgeport Reservoir up 6.2 feet, Topaz Lake up 8.9 feet, Boca Reservoir up 12 feet, Stampede Reservoir
up 12.9 feet, Lake Lahontan up 16.3 feet. The water level of Lake Tahoe rose 1.8 feet in January, equaling
216 KAF (thousand acre-feet), the biggest January rise in the last 60 years. Lahontan gained nearly 90
KAF, the second biggest January rise in 100 years, narrowly missing 1997s record by just 1 KAF. The
reservoirs in the Truckee, Carson and Walker basins are expected to fill this year. Lake Tahoe has a good
chance of filling, which would equate to a 6.5 foot rise. Tahoe has never physically risen this much in a
year. A full Lake Tahoe provides enough water to insure the Truckee River will flow at normal levels
through three summers. Pyramid and Walker lakes are expected to have an above average rise this year.
Rye Patch Reservoir needs 170 KAF to fill. This is possible depending on releases and based on even the
driest March-July forecast for the Humboldt River near Imlay which predicts 222 KAF or 106% of average.
Statistically there is a 90% chance that the Imlay gage will see more water than this. Last year the
lingering effects of drought caused observed flows at Imlay to fall between the 90% and 70% exceedance
forecasts. There is a lot more snow this year than last in the Marys River and North Fork Humboldt, so
hopefully this extra water pushes to the bottom of the system. In Southern Nevada, Lake Mohave and
Lake Mead are currently storing a little more water than last year at this time.
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS
February 1 streamflow forecasts for Nevada range from 130-225% of average. Key forecasts for our
region are very promising. As a percent of average these include: Truckee River at Farad 195%, Carson
River near Fort Churchill 225%, East Walker River near Bridgeport 168%, West Walker River near Coleville
182%, Humboldt River near Elko 201% and Humboldt River near Imlay 172%. Key forecasts for southern
part of Nevada include, Lake Powell inflow at 147% of average and the Virgin River at Littlefield at 200%
of average. These percentages are based on the 50% exceedance level. Keep in mind every forecast has
five exceedance levels. The 50% exceedance is the middle of the road, and assumes average precipitation
in the future. There is however, a 50% chance of more streamflow occurring if future conditions are
wetter than average, and conversing, a 50% chance of less streamflow occurring if the future weather is
drier than average. This month there are nine new forecasts presented in the Lake Tahoe and Truckee
River basins. These forecasts were requested by the Water Master to help with water management.
More information is on the last page of this report in the list of streamflow adjustments.
SNOW SURVEY PRODUCT HIGHLIGHT
The snowpack section of this report mentioned that last months storms added 3-4 times the normal
January amount of snow. The increase in snow water during January 2017 was equivalent to getting a
full winters worth of snow in one month. The Monthly Snowpack Summary Graphs illustrate this. The
first column in the bar graph below shows the relative monthly contributions to snowpack for a
median year to reach 100% of the normal springtime peak amount. December, January and February
are generally the biggest months for snow accumulation, with November and March adding smaller
but significant amounts. The height of January 2017 actually exceeded the overall height of the median
year in the Lake Tahoe Basin, and was roughly equivalent to all the snow received in 2016. If you live in
the Lake Tahoe basin and feel like you already shoveled a whole winters worth of snow, this graph
proves you did! Similar graphs are available for the other basins mentioned in this report. Take a look
using the links on the Basin Snowpack Graphs webpage.
UPCOMING PRESENTATIONS AND EVENTS

Northern Nevada Streamflow, Weather and Reservoir Forecast Meeting
NRCS, NWS, and USBOR present info related to the Truckee, Carson, Walker, and Humboldt basins.
February 10, 2017, 10am Nevada Div of Water Resources; 901 S. Stewart St Suite 2002, Carson City, NV
Nevada Water Resources Association Annual Meeting

NRCS will participate in a panel discussion: Mitigating the Negative Effects of Changing Snowpacks in NV
February 15, 2017, 10:30-noon, Peppermill Casino, Reno, NV, http://www.nvwra.org
Humboldt River Basin Water Authority (HRBWA) Meeting

NRCS and NWS will provide presentations about snowpack, water supply and weather.
February 17, 2017, Winnemucca Inn, 741 W Winnemucca Blvd, Winnemucca, NV
Western Snow Conference, April 17-20, 2017, Boise, ID http://www.westernsnowconference.org
This year is a joint meeting with the Weather Modification Association.
State of Nevada & Eastern Sierra
February 1, 2017
The snowpack across Northern Nevada and the Eastern Sierra (Truckee, Tahoe, Carson and Walker basins) is much above normal at
177% of median, compared to 133% last year. Precipitation in January was much above average, which brings the seasonal
accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 192% of average. Soil moisture is at 57% saturation, compared to 53% last year. Reservoir storage ranges
from 13% of capacity in the Humboldt Basin to 75% of capacity in the Walker Basin.
Reservoir Storage
0 (Tahoe was below rim in 2016)
Lake Tahoe 34
22
Truckee Basin 60
8
Carson Basin 54
23
Walker Basin 75
5
Humboldt Basin 13
16
Owyhee Basin 46
43
Southern Nevada 44
Previous Year % Capacity Current % Capacity

February1,2017
StreamflowForecast Nevada&EasternSierra
ForecastedApril Julystreamflowasapercentageofthe1981 2010Average
Nevada & Eastern Sierra
Water Year to Date Precipitation
October 1, 2016 through February 1, 2017
Owyhee River Snake
Northern Great Basin 144 River
147
Upper
148 Humboldt
157 Clover
Basin-wide Valley
Water Year
Precipitation to Date 152
153
as a Percent of
the 1981-2010 Average
<50% Lower
Eastern
Humboldt
50-
69% Truckee 215 Carson Nevada
70-
89%
200
90-
109%
1
10-
129% 233
130-
150% Lake 218 131
>150% Tahoe
Provisional data Walker

subject to revision
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Nevada & Eastern Sierra
Percent of Median Snowpack
February 1, 2017
Owyhee River Snake
Northern Great Basin 148 River
160
Upper
142 Humboldt
159 Clover
Valley
1st of Month Snow
Water Equivalent 156
187
Basin-wide Percent
of 1981-2010 Median
<50% Lower
Eastern
Humboldt
50-
69% Truckee 178 Carson Nevada
70-
89%
193
90-
109%
1
10-
129% 190
130-
150% Lake 197 147
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Lake Tahoe Basin
February 1, 2017
Snowpack in the Lake Tahoe Basin is much above normal at 190% of median, compared to 129% last year. Precipitation in January was
much above average, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 233% of average. Soil moisture is at 72% saturation,
compared to 67% last year. Lake Tahoe's water elevation is 6225.1 ft, which is 2.1 ft above the lake's natural rim and equals a storage
of 255 thousand acre-feet. Last year its elevation was 6222.06 ft which equaled a storage deficit of 114 thousand acre-feet. Lake
Tahoe is forecast to rise 5.2 feet from October 1 to its highest elevation.
Reservoir Storage
0 (Lake Tahoe was below its rim)

Lake Tahoe
34
95
Marlette Lake
101

Data Current as of: 2/6/2017 11:48:51 AM
Lake Tahoe Basin
Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2017
Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment
Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast
Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg
Lake Tahoe Basin % Avg
Period (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Marlette Lake Inflow (acre-feet)2

MAR-JUL 1180 1770 2200 198% 2600 3100 1110
APR-JUL 760 1260 1600 193% 1940 2400 830
1
Lake Tahoe Rise - Gates Closed (feet)
OCT-HIGH 3.2 4.6 5.2 232% 5.8 7.2 2.24
APR-HIGH 1.26 2 2.4 183% 2.8 3.5 1.31
2
Lake Tahoe Net Inflow
MAR-JUL 197 295 360 190% 425 525 189.3
APR-JUL 157 230 270 187% 330 400 144.6
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions
3) Median value used in place of average
Reservoir Storage Current Last Year Average Capacity

End of January, 2017 (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
Lake Tahoe 255.2 0.0 276.2 744.6
Marlette Lk nr Carson City, NV 11.9 11.1 11.8 11.8
Basin-wide Total 267.1 11.1 288.0 756.4
# of reservoirs 2 2 2 2
Watershed Snowpack Analysis Last Year

# of Sites % Median
February 1, 2017 % Median
Lake Tahoe Basin 14 190% 129%
Truckee River Basin
February 1, 2017
Snowpack in the Truckee River Basin is much above normal at 178% of median, compared to 115% last year. Precipitation in January
was much above average, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 215% of average. Soil moisture is at 62% saturation,
compared to 54% last year. Combined reservoir storage is 60% of capacity , compared to 22% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes
range from 141% to 382% of average.
Reservoir Storage
58
Donner Lake
51
32
Prosser Reservoir
33
86
Independence Lake
72
13
Stampede Reservoir
64
29
Boca Reservoir
55

Truckee River Basin
Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

Truckee River Basin % Avg
2
Donner Lake Inflow
MAR-JUL 32 38 42 193% 46 52 21.74
APR-JUL 26 31 34 191% 37 42 17.84
2
Martis Ck Res Inflow
MAR-JUL 17.2 22 26 201% 30 35 12.91
APR-JUL 11.6 16 19 202% 22 26 9.39
2
Prosser Ck Res Inflow
MAR-JUL 63 74 82 162% 90 101 50.71
APR-JUL 53 63 70 163% 77 87 42.84
2
Independence Res Inflow
MAR-JUL 12.9 16.5 19 141% 21 25 13.5
APR-JUL 11.7 14.8 17 140% 19.2 22 12.1
Sagehen Ck nr Truckee
MAR-JUL 7.1 10.2 13 203% 16.6 24 6.4
APR-JUL 5.8 8.6 11.3 202% 14.8 22 5.6
2
Stampede Res Local Inflow
MAR-JUL 123 154 175 194% 197 230 90.25
APR-JUL 102 131 150 196% 169 198 76.5
2
L Truckee R ab Boca Reservoir
MAR-JUL 148 179 200 202% 220 250 99
APR-JUL 123 150 168 200% 186 215 84
2
Boca Res Local Inflow
MAR-JUL 11.2 15.3 18 191% 21 25 9.42
APR-JUL 5.9 8.9 11 200% 13.1 16.1 5.5
Truckee R at Farad2
MAR-JUL 455 540 600 195% 660 745 307
APR-JUL 375 450 500 196% 550 625 255
2
Truckee R ab Farad Sidewater
MAR-JUL 164 200 225 178% 250 285 126.1
APR-JUL 139 172 195 180% 220 250 108.09
Galena Ck at Galena Ck State Pk
MAR-JUL 9.2 10.3 11 227% 11.7 12.8 4.85
APR-JUL 8.2 9.3 10 229% 10.7 11.8 4.37
Steamboat Ck at Steamboat
APR-JUL 5.7 11.9 18 234% 26 41 7.7
1
Pyramid Lake Elevation Change (feet)
LOW-HIGH 2.9 5.4 6.5 382% 7.6 10.1 1.7


Boca Reservoir 22.3 11.9 15.1 40.9
Donner Lake 4.8 5.5 3.5 9.5
Independence Lake 12.4 14.8 13.4 17.3
Prosser Reservoir 9.4 9.1 9.5 28.6
Stampede Reservoir 144.7 29.4 144.6 226.5
Basin-wide Total 193.6 70.7 186.1 322.8

# of Sites % Median
Truckee River Basin 14 178% 115%
Little Truckee River 5 167% 110%
Sagehen & Independence Creeks 3 167% 112%
Galena Creek 1 213% 124%
Steamboat Creek 2 243% 131%
Truckee River above Pyramid Lake 28 183% 121%
Carson River Basin
February 1, 2017
Snowpack in the Carson River Basin is much above normal at 193% of median, compared to 125% last year. Precipitation in January
compared to 51% last year. Storage in Lahontan Reservoir is 54% of capacity , compared to 8% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes
Reservoir Storage
Lahontan
54

Carson River Basin
Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

Carson River Basin % Avg
EF Carson R nr Gardnerville
MAR-JUL 265 340 390 190% 440 515 205
APR-JUL 240 310 355 191% 400 465 186
200 cfs 03 Aug 26 Aug 11 Sep 27 Sep 20 Oct 24 Jul
500 cfs 12 Jul 31 Jul 13 Aug 26 Aug 14 Sep 30 Jun
WF Carson R nr Woodfords
MAR-JUL 92 112 125 212% 138 158 59
APR-JUL 89 104 115 213% 126 141 54
Carson R nr Carson City
MAR-JUL 285 390 455 217% 525 630 210
APR-JUL 245 325 380 212% 435 515 179
2
Marlette Lake Inflow (acre-feet)
MAR-JUL 1180 1770 2200 198% 2600 3100 1110
APR-JUL 760 1260 1600 193% 1940 2400 830
King Canyon Ck nr Carson City
MAR-JUL 0.35 0.68 0.9 237% 1.12 1.45 0.38
APR-JUL 0.39 0.67 0.86 226% 1.06 1.34 0.38
Ash Canyon Ck nr Carson City
MAR-JUL 1.79 2.3 2.6 184% 2.9 3.4 1.41
APR-JUL 1.53 1.94 2.2 196% 2.5 2.9 1.12
Carson R at Ft Churchill
MAR-JUL 265 365 450 225% 545 710 200
APR-JUL 205 300 380 222% 470 635 171


Lahontan Reservoir, NV 159.3 24.6 146.9 295.5
Basin-wide Total 159.3 24.6 146.9 295.5

# of Sites % Median
Carson River Basin 11 193% 125%
East Fork Carson River 6 206% 128%
West Fork Carson River 8 181% 126%
Walker River Basin
February 1, 2017
Snowpack in the Walker River Basin is much above normal at 197% of median, compared to 118% last year. Precipitation in January
compared to 36% last year. Combined reservoir storage is 75% of capacity , compared to 23% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes
Reservoir Storage
21
Topaz Lake
74
26
Bridgeport
77

Walker River Basin
Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

Walker River Basin % Avg
2
E Walker R nr Bridgeport
MAR-AUG 78 109 131 168% 152 184 78
APR-AUG 71 98 116 171% 134 161 68
W Walker R bl L Walker nr Coleville
MAR-JUL 215 265 300 176% 335 385 170
APR-JUL 200 250 285 176% 320 370 162
W Walker R nr Coleville
MAR-JUL 305 310 315 183% 315 320 172
APR-JUL 210 260 295 181% 330 380 163
1
Walker Lake Elevation Change (feet)
LOW-HIGH -0.45 2.3 3.5 248% 4.7 7.4 1.41


Bridgeport Reservoir 32.6 11.0 20.8 42.5
Topaz Lk nr Topaz, CA 44.2 12.2 23.6 59.4
Basin-wide Total 76.7 23.2 44.4 101.9

# of Sites % Median
Walker River Basin 10 197% 118%
East Walker River above Bridgeport 4 224% 127%
West Walker River above Coleville 6 191% 117%
Northern Great Basin
February 1, 2017
Snowpack in the Northern Great Basin is much above normal at 142% of median, compared to 151% last year. Precipitation in January
compared to 55% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 142% to 166% of average.
Northern Great Basin
Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

Northern Great Basin % Avg
Davis Ck (acre-feet)
APR-JUL 4900 7700 10600 147% 14400 23000 7233
APR-SEP 5700 8700 11700 146% 15600 24000 7991
Bidwell Ck nr Fort Bidwell
APR-JUL 13.2 15.4 17 142% 18.6 21 12
Eagle Ck nr Eagleville
APR-JUL 3.3 5.5 7 163% 8.5 10.7 4.3
McDermitt Ck nr McDermitt
MAR-JUN 15.8 24 29 166% 34 42 17.5
APR-JUL 11 16.9 21 162% 25 31 13


# of Sites % Median
Northern Great Basin 10 142% 151%
Surprise Valley - Warner Mtns 3 126% 162%
McDermitt Creek 2 136% 128%
Quinn River 5 147% 143%
Upper Humboldt River Basin
February 1, 2017
Snowpack in the Upper Humboldt River Basin is much above normal at 159% of median, compared to 135% last year. Precipitation in
January was much above average, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 157% of average. Soil moisture is at 64%
saturation, compared to 61% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 153% to 201% of average.
Upper Humboldt River Basin
Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

Upper Humboldt River Basin % Avg
Marys R nr Deeth
MAR-JUL 53 68 78 190% 88 103 41
APR-JUL 44 58 68 189% 78 92 36
Lamoille Ck nr Lamoille
MAR-JUL 33 41 46 153% 51 59 30
APR-JUL 31 38 44 152% 49 56 29
NF Humboldt R at Devils Gate
MAR-JUL 53 67 76 195% 85 99 39
APR-JUL 37 52 62 194% 72 87 32
Humboldt R nr Elko
MAR-JUL 220 280 320 201% 355 415 159
APR-JUL 172 225 265 199% 300 355 133
SF Humboldt R at Dixie
MAR-JUL 75 106 126 175% 146 177 72
APR-JUL 65 94 114 173% 134 163 66
Humboldt R nr Carlin
MAR-JUL 340 400 440 182% 480 540 242
APR-JUL 285 340 380 184% 420 475 206
Humboldt R at Palisade
MAR-JUL 395 455 495 183% 535 595 270
APR-JUL 315 375 420 187% 460 525 225


# of Sites % Median
Upper Humboldt River Basin 22 159% 135%
Mary's River 5 183% 140%
Lamoille Creek 3 161% 130%
North Fork Humboldt River 5 181% 150%
South Fork Humboldt River 4 147% 142%
Lower Humboldt River Basin
February 1, 2017
Snowpack in the Lower Humboldt River Basin is much above normal at 156% of median, compared to 159% last year. Precipitation in
January was much above average, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 152% of average. Soil moisture is at 58%
saturation, compared to 59% last year. Storage in Rye Patch Reservoir is 13% of capacity , compared to 5% last year. Forecast
streamflow volumes range from 133% to 188% of average.
Reservoir Storage
Rye Patch
13

Lower Humboldt River Basin
Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

Lower Humboldt River Basin % Avg
Rock Ck nr Battle Mtn

MAR-JUL 28 33 36 133% 39 44 27
APR-JUL 20 23 25 137% 27 30 18.2
Humboldt R at Comus
MAR-JUL 355 430 480 188% 530 605 255
APR-JUL 275 350 400 188% 450 525 213
L Humboldt R nr Paradise
MAR-JUL 5 10.5 14.3 136% 18 24 10.5
APR-JUL 4.7 10 13.6 140% 17.2 23 9.7
Martin Ck nr Paradise
MAR-JUL 18 28 35 159% 41 51 22
APR-JUL 12.1 21 27 154% 33 42 17.5
Humboldt R nr Imlay
MAR-JUL 220 305 360 172% 415 500 209
APR-JUL 155 240 300 169% 360 445 178


Rye Patch Re nr Rye Patch, NV 24.4 10.6 72.1 194.3
Basin-wide Total 24.4 10.6 72.1 194.3

# of Sites % Median
Lower Humboldt River Basin 7 156% 159%
Rock Creek 1 392% 283%
Reese River 2 127% 165%
Martin Creek 3 152% 150%
Little Humboldt River 5 169% 157%
Humboldt River above Imlay 29 158% 141%
Clover Valley & Franklin River Basin
February 1, 2017
The statewide maps on pages 8-9 show that snow is 187% of median in the Clover Valley and Franklin River Basin, compared to 147-159% in surrounding
basins. Water year precipitation (Oct-Jan) is 153% of average which is in line with surrounding basins that are 131-157%. Snow tube measurements
made January 26 at Hole in Mountain SNOTEL recorded 34 inches of snow water at the new snow pillow location, and 23 inches at the original location.
The median for January 26 is 10.3 inches based on historic data at the original site. Using this median the new location is 330%, compared to 223% at
the original location. It is becoming clear that the new SNOTEL location collects more wind deposited snow than the original site. Applying the old
medians to the new site are inflating station and basin snow percents compared to nearby sites and basins. The March 1, 2017 report will address this
by removing Hole in Mountain SNOTEL from calculations until new medians can be developed. Water users should be assured that current conditions
are above normal and likely quite similar to last year based on data from nearby basins. A good water year is developing.
ATTENTION: In December 2015, Hole-in-Mountain

SNOTEL was destroyed by an avalanche. The site was
rebuilt in October 2016 at a similar elevation, but 450
feet south of the original location. The new location is
outside the avalanche slide path to protect the
equipment in the future. Moving the site has
implications when comparing this year's data to
historic data. Snow surveyors are making snow tube
measurements this winter, at both the new and
original locations to evaluate how similar the sites
are. A news release with more information is on our
homepage: www.nv.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/
The graphs on this page are based on data from five
SNOTELs, including Hole in Mountain's new location.
The Min, Max and Normal lines are based on historic
data from the same sites, including data from Hole in
Mountain's original location. Please keep this in mind
when evaluating your water supply.
Contact Jeff Anderson with your questions:
jeff.anderson@nv.usda or 775-857-8500 ext. 152
Clover Valley & Franklin River Basin
Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

Clover Valley & Franklin River Basin % Avg
Franklin Ck nr Arthur
APR-JUL 10.7 12.1 13 220% 13.9 15.3 5.9


# of Sites % Median
Clover Valley & Franklin River Basin 8 187% 134%
Clover Valley 4 223% 117%
Franklin River 7 156% 136%
Snake River Basin
February 1, 2017
Snowpack in the Snake River Basin is much above normal at 148% of median, compared to 152% last year. Precipitation in January
compared to 58% last year. The forecast streamflow volume for Salmon Falls Creek is 152% of average.
Snake River Basin
Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

Snake River Basin % Avg
Salmon Falls Ck nr San Jacinto
MAR-JUL 85 107 123 152% 140 168 81
MAR-SEP 88 111 127 149% 144 172 85


# of Sites % Median
Snake River Basin 12 148% 152%
Bruneau River 8 154% 153%
Jarbidge River 3 134% 149%
Salmon Falls Creek 7 127% 153%
Owyhee River Basin
February 1, 2017
Snowpack in the Owyhee River Basin is much above normal at 160% of median, compared to 148% last year. Precipitation in January
compared to 67% last year. Storage in Wildhorse Reservoir is 46% of capacity , compared to 16% last year. The forecast streamflow
volume for the Owyhee River near Gold Creek is 196% of average.
Reservoir Storage
16
Wild Horse
46

Owyhee River Basin
Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

Owyhee River Basin % Avg
2
Owyhee R nr Gold Ck
MAR-JUL 36 47 55 196% 63 75 28
MAR-SEP 34 46 54 200% 61 73 27
APR-JUL 25 38 46 209% 55 68 22


Wild Horse Reservoir 33.1 11.1 33.2 71.5
Basin-wide Total 33.1 11.1 33.2 71.5

# of Sites % Median
Owyhee River Basin 9 160% 148%
Owyhee River above Owyhee 8 153% 144%
Owyhee River above Gold Creek 4 164% 158%
South Fork Owyhee River 3 162% 155%
Eastern Nevada
February 1, 2017
Snowpack in the Eastern Nevada is much above normal at 147% of median, compared to 152% last year. Precipitation in January was
much above average, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 131% of average. Soil moisture is at 26% saturation,
compared to 43% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 127% to 194% of average.
Eastern Nevada
Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

Eastern Nevada % Avg
Kingston Ck nr Austin
APR-JUL 2.6 5.2 7 194% 8.8 11.4 3.6
Steptoe Ck nr Ely
APR-JUL 1.75 2.7 3.3 138% 3.9 4.9 2.4
Cleve Ck nr Ely
APR-JUL 3 4.6 5.6 127% 6.6 8.2 4.41
Lehman Ck nr Baker
APR-JUL 2.3 3.4 4.2 154% 5 6.2 2.72


# of Sites % Median
Eastern Nevada 4 147% 152%
Kingston Creek 1 123% 174%
Steptoe Valley 2 160% 135%
Baker & Lehman Creeks 0
Spring Mountains & Southern Nevada
February 1, 2017
The average snow water content at SNOTEL sites in the Spring Mountains is 14 inches. Precipitation in January averaged 10.8 inches,
which brings the average seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 21.3 inches. Soil moisture is at 42% saturation, compared to 29% last
year. Storage in Lake Mead is 32% of capacity, compared to 37% last year. Lake Mohave storage is 35% of capacity, compared to 89%
last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 147% to 200% of average.
Reservoir Storage
89
Lake Mohave
35
37
Lake Mead
32
**SNOTEL sites in the Spring Mtns were installed in June 2008. Due to the short record snowpack and precipitation normals
are not presented. Max and Min lines are based on water years 2009-2016, same goes for the soil moisture normal line.
Spring Mountains & Southern Nevada
Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

Spring Mountains & Southern Nevada % Avg
Virgin R nr Hurricane
APR-JUL 58 89 110 175% 131 162 63
Virgin R at Littlefield
APR-JUL 76 108 130 200% 152 184 65
Lake Powell Inflow 2
APR-JUL 6860 8940 10500 147% 12200 14900 7160


Lake Mead 10531.0 10318.0 20452.0 26159.0
Lake Mohave 1710.0 1647.0 1676.0 1810.0
Basin-wide Total 12241.0 11965.0 22128.0 27969.0

# of Sites % Median
Spring Mountains 0
White River 1 189% 120%
Virgin River 8 225% 161%
Colorado R above Glen Canyon Dam 105 159% 113%
USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
List of Streamflow Adjustments: (continued from inside of front cover)
1365 Corporate Blvd
Reno, NV 89502
Lake Tahoe Net Inflow (2) (externally adjusted by US Water Master) = Lake Tahoe
storage change + Lake Tahoe Release. Net inflow used due to complexities with
estimating Lake Tahoe evaporation and precipitation.
Marlette Lake Inflow (2) = Marlette Lake Inflow, observed + Marlette Lake storage
change
Donner Lake inflow (2) (externally adjusted by US Water Master) = Donner Lake
storage change + Donner Lake Release + Lake Evaporation Lake Precipitation
Martis Creek Reservoir inflow (2) (externally adjusted by US Water Master) =
Martis Creek Reservoir storage change + Martis Creek Reservoir Release
+ Lake Evaporation Lake Precipitation
Prosser Creek Reservoir Inflow (2) (externally adjusted by US Water Master) =
Prosser Creek Reservoir storage change + Prosser Creek Reservoir Release
+ Lake Evaporation Lake Precipitation
Independence Lake Inflow (2) (externally adjusted by US Water Master) =
Independence Lake storage change + Independence Lake Release
Issued by: + Lake Evaporation Lake Precipitation
Leonard Jordan, Acting Chief Stampede Reservoir Local Inflow (2) (externally adjusted by US Water Master) =
Stampede Reservoir storage change + Stampede Reservoir Release
Natural Resources Conservation Service
+ Lake Evaporation Lake Precipitation Independence Lake Release + Sierra
Washington, DC Valley Diversion
Little Truckee River above Boca Reservoir (2) = Little Truckee River above Boca
Released by: Reservoir, observed + Sierra Valley Diversion + Independence Lake storage
Ray Dotson, State Conservationist change + Stampede Reservoir storage change
Vinh Hoang, State Conservation Engineer Boca Reservoir Local Inflow (2) (externally adjusted by US Water Master) = Boca
Natural Resources Conservation Service Reservoir storage change + Boca Reservoir Release + Lake Evaporation
Lake Precipitation Stampede Reservoir Release
Reno, Nevada Truckee River at Farad (2) (externally adjusted by US Water Master) =
Truckee River at Farad, observed Lake Tahoe outflow + Sierra Valley Diversion
Prepared by: + Donner Lake storage change + Martis Creek Reservoir storage change + Prosser
Jeff Anderson, Water Supply Specialist Creek Reservoir storage change + Independence Lake storage change + Stampede
Reservoir storage change + Boca Reservoir storage change
Reno, Nevada
Truckee R above Farad Sidewater (2) (externally adjusted by US Water Master) =
Assistance provided by the: Truckee River at Farad, observed Boca Creek Reservoir Release Prosser Creek
Reservoir Release Donner Lake Release Martis Creek Reservoir Release Lake
Utah Snow Survey Data Collection Office Tahoe Release
Forecasts provided by the East Walker River near Bridgeport (2) = East Walker River near Bridgeport, observed
+ Bridgeport Reservoir storage change
NRCS National Water and Climate Center:
Jolyne Lea, Forecast Hydrologist Owyhee River near Gold Creek (2) = Owyhee River near Gold Creek + Wildhorse
Reservoir storage change
David Garen, Development Hydrologist
Lake Powell Inflow (2) (externally adjusted by Bureau of Reclamation)
Gus Goodbody, Forecast Hydrologist
Rashawn Tama, Forecast Hydrologist
Portland, Oregon
A number of outside agencies provide assistance
with snow course measurements. This cooperation is
greatly appreciated.
In accordance with Federal civil rights law and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) civil rights regulations and policies, the USDA, its Agencies, offices, and employees, and
institutions participating in or administering USDA programs are prohibited from discriminating based on race, color, national origin, religion, sex, gender identity (including
gender expression), sexual orientation, disability, age, marital status, family/parental status, income derived from a public assistance program, political beliefs, or reprisal or
retaliation for prior civil rights activity, in any program or activity conducted or funded by USDA (not all bases apply to all programs). Remedies and complaint filing deadlines
vary by program or incident.
Persons with disabilities who require alternative means of communication for program information (e.g., Braille, large print, audiotape, American Sign Language, etc.) should
contact the responsible Agency or USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TTY) or contact USDA through the Federal Relay Service at (800) 877-8339.
Additionally, program information may be made available in languages other than English.
To file a program discrimination complaint, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form, AD-3027, found online at How to File a Program Discrimination
Complaint and at any USDA office or write a letter addressed to USDA and provide in the letter all of the information requested in the form. To request a copy of the
complaint form, call (866) 632-9992. Submit your completed form or letter to USDA by: (1) mail: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil
Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C. 20250-9410; (2) fax: (202) 690-7442; or (3) email: program.intake@usda.gov.
USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender.

Streamflow Forecast, February 2017

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Streamflow Forecast, February 2017

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Natural Resources Conservation Service

Nevada Water Supply Outlook Report

Photo Credit: Dave Hahl, Mountain Manager, Mt Rose Ski Tahoe

UPCOMING PRESENTATIONS AND EVENTS

Nevada Water Resources Association Annual Meeting

Humboldt River Basin Water Authority (HRBWA) Meeting

Previous Year % Capacity Current % Capacity

Provisional data Walker

Provisional data Walker

0 (Lake Tahoe was below its rim)

Previous Year % Capacity Current % Capacity

Marlette Lake Inflow (acre-feet)2

1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

Reservoir Storage Current Last Year Average Capacity

Watershed Snowpack Analysis Last Year

Previous Year % Capacity Current % Capacity

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

Reservoir Storage Current Last Year Average Capacity

Watershed Snowpack Analysis Last Year

Previous Year % Capacity Current % Capacity

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

Reservoir Storage Current Last Year Average Capacity

Watershed Snowpack Analysis Last Year

Previous Year % Capacity Current % Capacity

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

Reservoir Storage Current Last Year Average Capacity

Watershed Snowpack Analysis Last Year

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

Watershed Snowpack Analysis Last Year

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

Watershed Snowpack Analysis Last Year

Previous Year % Capacity Current % Capacity

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

Rock Ck nr Battle Mtn

1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

Reservoir Storage Current Last Year Average Capacity

Watershed Snowpack Analysis Last Year

ATTENTION: In December 2015, Hole-in-Mountain

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

Watershed Snowpack Analysis Last Year

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

Watershed Snowpack Analysis Last Year

Previous Year % Capacity Current % Capacity

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

Reservoir Storage Current Last Year Average Capacity

Watershed Snowpack Analysis Last Year

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

Watershed Snowpack Analysis Last Year

Previous Year % Capacity Current % Capacity

Forecast 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 30yr Avg

1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5%

Reservoir Storage Current Last Year Average Capacity

Watershed Snowpack Analysis Last Year

USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender.