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ed-JS & TH / sa- MH
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Table of Contents
Investment summary 3
Going mobile 4
Stock Profiles 20
Tencent 20
JD.com 38
Appendix 58
Page 2
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Page 3
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Going mobile
Revenue breakdown for China internet sector (2013)
Page 4
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Mobile penetration rate Ecosystem is the key. In spite of the bright prospects for mobile
internet, it could be difficult for the players to achieve
25% monetization, unless an ecosystem is established. For example,
21.8% mobile e-commerce could be much more effective if customers
20.1% have access to convenient online payment methods, and goods
20% 18.0% are delivered via efficient logistics systems. Hence, we expect
14.9% leading internet players to invest on both horizontal expansion
15% (across segments) and vertical integration (along value chains)
11.7% to create ecosystems in the mobile era.
10% Winner takes it all. Mainly due to screen size, mobile devices
could display limited content compared to PCs. Thus, users
5% attention could be concentrated on a few apps. According to a
recent survey by iiMedia, >75% of smart phone users in China
would frequently use 6-15 apps, and less than 20% would use
0%
2011 2012 2013 1Q14 2Q14
>15 apps frequently. As such, we believe the mobile internet
market could consolidate over the longer-term, with a few
Note: Penetration = mobile revenue / total revenue for China internet leaders enjoying majority of the market share.
sector.
Consolidations ahead. Given mobile internets immense
Source: iResearch
potential, emerging new services, and market concentration
down the road, we believe leading internet players especially
Leaders are on the move. Seeing strong growth and immense
the BAT could be interested to strengthen their positions
potential in mobile internet, leading internet players especially
through M&As and strategic partnerships. Besides, since they
the BAT (Baidu, Alibaba Group and Tencent) have placed much
are listed companies, these leaders could ride on their strong
attention on growing their mobile arms. Baidu has penetrated
financial positions to acquire quality players in other segments
mobile internet users with its strengths in mobile search, online
or along the value chains, in our view.
maps and appstores; Alibaba has focused on mobile e-
commerce such as Mobile Taobao (); Tencent aims
Net cash level for BAT
to strengthen its positions in mobile games and social networks
(e.g. Weixin, Mobile QQ and Mobile Qzone). Alibaba and
Tencent have also offered subsidies to customers, to encourage RMB m
the use of their mobile payment solutions (e.g. Alipay, Weixin 41,000 38,070
Payment and Mobile QQ Wallet). 36,000
31,000 26,526
Overall, mobile revenue growth for BAT has been robust, and 26,000 23,271
they have led the industry in mobile revenue contributions. 18,547
21,000
Looking ahead, we believe BAT aim to further accelerate their
16,000
mobile transformations, via both organic growth and 9,748
11,000 7,495
cooperating with strategic partners in their non-core segments. 4,858
6,000 2,287
1,000
Mobile revenue contributions for BAT
(4,000) (3,109)
1Q 20 1 4 2Q 2 01 4 3 Q 2 0 14 2011 2012 2013
Baidu >25% 33% 36% Baidu Alibaba Group * Tencent
Alibaba Group * 27% 33% 36%
Tencent ** 17% 27% 23% * Alibaba Group: 2011: FY3/12; 2012: FY3/13; 2013: FY3/14.
Alibaba raised c.US8bn / c.RMB50bn from its IPO in Sep 2014.
Note: Mobile revenue as percentage of total revenue. Based on
calendar year. Source: Companies, DBS Vickers
* Alibaba Group: Based on GMV (gross merchandise value).
** Tencent: For online games only. Its mobile game revenue saw
temporary disruption in 3Q14, due to delayed launches of upgrades
on Weixin and Mobile QQ apps.
Source: Companies
Page 5
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Consolidations taking place Social networking is crucial in the mobile era. Social
networking has been the major beneficiary of mobile internet,
Taking a shortcut. In the mobile era, internet players have thanks to its portability and convenience. Users of instant
increasingly adopted the M&A approach to strengthen their messaging apps could communicate on a real-time basis with
industry positions. Total value of M&As in China internet sector friends, at literally no cost. A recent survey by Enfodesk shows
posted 116% CAGR during 2009-2013 to US$14.3bn, and that 91% of mobile netizens have used social networking apps
could grow by 60% this year to US$23bn. As the mobile such as Tencents Weixin (), Mobile QQ ( QQ) and
internet market consolidates, M&As and strategic cooperation Qzone (QQ ). Being the dominant leader in social
could be the preferred solutions for leaders to further increase networking, Tencent has accumulated a large user base of
their market shares. >550m monthly active users (MAU) for its apps including
Mobile QQ and Weixin. With the advantage in mobile users,
Tencent is well-positioned to penetrate into other segments of
China internet sector Total M&A size
mobile internet.
USD m %
Mobile internet Penetration by category (1H14)
25,000 164% 22,955 180%
160%
20,000 100% 91%
140%
114% 108%
14,349 120%
15,000 80%
86% 100%
60% 80% 60% 56% 55% 53%
10,000
60%
5,425 36%
40% 40% 35% 31%
5,000 2,602
654 1,401 20%
20%
0 0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F
0% E-commerce
Games
Readers
Video
Social network
News
Music
Page 6
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
2014:
J un 2014 24% stake in 58.com (58; NYSE: WUBA) LBS >US$830m
May 2014 11% stake in Nav Info (; 002405.CH) LBS RMB1.2bn
May 2014 c.18% stake in J D.com E-commerce n.a.
Mar 2014 15% stake in Leju LBS US$180m
Mar 2014 28% stake in CJ Games Games KRW533bn
F eb 2014 20% stake in Dianping.com () LBS c.US$400m
F eb 2014 Increased its stake in LY.com () to c.20% Trav el n.a.
J an 2014 c.12% stake in China South City (; 1668.HK) Logistics c.HK$2.3bn
J an 2014 Increased its stake in Didi Taxi () LBS Tencent inv ested a total of US$45m
2013:
Sep 2013 c.37% stake in Sogou () Search RMB3.2bn
J ul 2013 c.6% stake in Activ ision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATV I) Games US$1.4bn
J un 2013 Raised stake in Cheetah Mobile (NYSE: CMCM) by 8ppts to 18% Mobile software RMB290m
2012:
Nov 2012 Inv ested in Meilishuo E-commerce n.a.
J un 2012 48% stake in Epic Games Games RMB2.1bn
May 2012 Acquired Yixun.com () E-commerce c.RMB500m
Apr 2012 Acquired 14% stake in Kakao Corp (now Daum Kakao) Social network RMB401m
Note: For the detailed list of major acquisitions by Tencent, pls refer to Appendix.
LBS: Location-based Services, an important part of O2O that rides on the GPS positioning system.
Page 7
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Note: LBS Location-based services. Yixun.com could be gradually incorporated into JD.com.
Page 8
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
F ood
S ocial network Restaurant: Dianping.com
Weixin, QQ He althcare
Guahao.com (), DXY.cn
S hopping ()
JD.com, Meilishuo, Yixun.com
Housing
E ntertainment Leju (), 58.com
Tencent Games, Tencent Video
User
V e hicle
T ravel
LY.com (), eLong () S ports Any ?
Any ?
Page 9
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Tencent:
Target: To form a strong social circle.
58.com JD.com
>200m >80m
QQ Sharing
820m
LY.com
c.1m
Leju
>21m
Dianping
>130m
Weixin & Wechat
468m Sogou
c.260m
Page 10
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
LY.com
Search
Weixin
Payment
LY.com
Page 11
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Page 12
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Tencent
Joining hands with JD.com. Within the internet sector, we 5.6%
believe e-commerce is best-positioned to monetize (i.e. Suning.com
generating revenue and profits), given its transaction-based 3.7%
business model that naturally involves the payment process. As JD.com Amazon
such, Tencent has strived to strengthen its e-commerce 16.4% China
presence, launching Paipai.com () in 2005, QQ 2.0%
Wanggou (QQ ) in 2011, and acquiring Yixun.com () VIPShop
1.9%
in 2012. However, Tencents e-commerce business has
Dang Dang
registered slower growth compared to leaders like Alibaba Others 1.6%
Group and JD.com, mainly attributable to Tencents less Tmall 7.6% GOME
aggressive expansion strategy, in our view. 57.7% 1.6%
Yihaodian
VANCL 1.3%
0.6%
Source: iResearch
Page 13
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
arranged by
S upplier management JD.com
Weixin
P ortals JD.com / Meilishuo User traffic Mobile QQ
arranged by
A fter-sales services JD.com
Better supply chain management. Through the integration, JD.com takes over e-commerce operations. Tencents QQ
Tencent and JD.com could gain valuable access to the entire e- Wanggou (B2C marketplace) and Paipai.com (C2C marketplace)
commerce value chain. In particular, JD.com could leverage on had been incorporated into JD.com since 2Q14. Particularly,
its established relationship with >6,000 suppliers and >50,000 QQ Wanggou was renamed as JD Wanggou () in
merchants (on its online marketplace) to offer >40m SKUs Sep 2014, and we believe it could be gradually absorbed by
(stock keeping units) to Tencents users. JD.com, given their similarity in business nature. By acquiring
Paipai.com, JD.com could gain valuable access to the C2C
Traffic support from Tencent. According to the strategic marketplace business, and compete head-on with Alibabas
cooperation, Tencent provides Level-1 access to JD.com, Taobao () platform.
from the Weixin and Mobile QQ apps. This means users of
Weixin and Mobile QQ could visit JD.com with only 1 click on As for Yixun.com (B2C direct sales arm), JD.com currently owns
the apps. Besides, Tencent directs user traffic to JD.com from c.10% stake in Yixun, and has the right to purchase the
its other key platforms such as Qzone and Tencent News. remaining stake. Given Yixuns logistics strength in selective
Thanks to Tencents support, mobile orders accounted for areas (e.g. Shanghai and Shenzhen), the integration could
c.40% of JD.coms total orders during the Singles Day likely complement JD.coms existing businesses.
promotion in Nov14. In our view, JD.com could benefit
substantially from Tencents large active user base (820m MAU Overall, we believe the integration with Tencents e-commerce
for QQ, and 468m MAU for Weixin & WeChat in 3Q14), arm could enhance JD.coms presence across B2C direct sales,
especially over the medium-term. B2C marketplace and C2C marketplace. For the first time,
JD.com could have the capability to compete with Alibaba
Group across these segments, in our view.
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
4th-tier &
below 1st-tier
40% cities
13%
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
M arg in s :
Gross margin 58% 62% 64% 67% 63% Improv ing gross margin as e-commerce sales decline
(w ith low margins)
Operating margin 42% 40% 38% 38% 39%
Profit before tax margin 41% 38% 36% 36% 38%
Net margin 35% 30% 29% 30% 31%
Core net margin (non-GA A P) 28% 30% 32% 34% 31%
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
G ro w t h ( y - o - y ) : 1Q 14 2Q 14 3Q 14 4Q14F 2014F
- Online direct sales 63% 60% 57% 56% 59%
- Serv ices & others 117% 186% 185% 148% 161%
Group rev enue 65% 64% 61% 60% 62%
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Peers comparison
^ Core EPS
Note: We exclude JD.com and Amazon in calculating average PE, as they operate under the direct sales model with low earnings.
Page 19
China / Hong Kong Company Focus
Tencent
Bloomberg: 700 HK Equity | Reuters: 0700.HK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
126.1
387
Dominating the online game segment. We like Tencents
106.1
337
strong position in online games, especially in the fast-
growing mobile games. Building on its solid track record,
287
86.1 237
66.1 187
wide game offerings, strong distribution channels and
46.1 137
payment solutions, Tencent has enjoyed good customer
26.1 87 recognition, and has led the industry in monetization.
Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
www.dbsvickers.com
ed-TH & JS / sa-CW
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
INVESTMENT THESIS
Profile Rationale
Tencent stands as a dominant leader in Chinas online game Leading online game player
industry, with rising exposure to the fast-growing mobile game
Tencent enjoys leading positions in client games and
segment. It also rides on large active user base for Weixin and
web games, and it has increasingly focused on the
Mobile QQ platforms, offering good monetization potential.
mobile game segment leveraging on its Weixin and
Mobile QQ platforms.
Valuation Risks
We benchmark our Target Price for Tencent at 0.9x PEG User experience is the key
(implying 32x 12-month rolling core PE), the average valuation
Potential downside could include unsuccessful
for Alibaba and Baidu, the other two internet leaders in China.
monetization efforts on Weixin and Mobile QQ that
could affect user experience.
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weakness
Leading position in online games with rising mobile Its e-commerce operations would be gradually
exposure absorbed by JD.com following their strategic
cooperation in Mar14, while Tencent could have
Traffic advantage thanks to its large active user base
limited influence on JD.com
Multiple social network platforms could enhance customer
recognition
Solid financial position facilitates M&A initiatives
Opportunities Threats
Rising synergies between mobile games, online ads and Slowdown in online game revenue
social networks
Licensed games contributions could improve return on Unsuccessful monetization on Weixin and Mobile QQ
investment and reduce execution risk that could affect user experience
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Business review
A leader in online gaming. Tencent stands as a dominant player Mobile game market share in China (2Q14)
in Chinas online gaming industry, with 50% market share in
client games (), 36% share in web games, and 39% Lilith Games
share in mobile games during 2Q14 (source: Enfodesk). For ()
9M14, Tencent reported online game revenue of RMB33bn, up 4% 5agame
()
40% y-o-y, and we believe it continues to outperform the Tencent 4%
overall market. Games Babeltime
39%
()
In the more mature client game / web game segments, Tencent 3%
has leveraged on the success of key products such as Crossfire Locojoy
()
(), League of Legends () and Blade &
3%
Soul (). Coupled with strong user recognition on its game
platforms, we believe Tencent could gain market share in client Linekong
Others ()
game / web game segments ahead. 42% 3%
Source: iResearch
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Pengyou ()
Papa ()
Renren ()
Qzone (QQ)
51.com (51)
Kaixin ()
Douban ()
Weishi ()
Heading into the mobile era, Tencent aims to unlock the
monetization potential of its large number of social network
users (i.e. generating greater revenues and profits). The
company would further strengthen e-commerce, LBS (location-
based services) and online payment functions for its Weixin and
Mobile QQ ( QQ) apps, to fulfil user demand.
Laiwang ()
Whatsapp
Renren Desktop
Ali Wangwang
QQ
YY
Feixin ()
Skype
Miliao ()
Yixin ()
Weixin
Immomo ()
Line
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
RMB bn
Game
3.5 250%
200% 3.0 3.0
3.0 200%
2.6
2.5
150%
2.0 1.8
Source: DBS Vickers 100%
1.5 67%
50%
1.0 -13%
0.6 15%
0.5 0%
Increasing focus on licensed games. Aimed to be the leading
platform for both self-developed games and licensed games, 0.0 -50%
Tencent has encouraged licensed mobile games to be launched 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14F
on Weixin and Mobile QQ. Some of the licensed games have Mobile game revenue (LHS) Growth q-o-q (RHS)
been quite successful on these apps. For instance, Thunder
Fighter ()was launched on Weixin and Mobile QQ in Source: Company, media websites, DBS Vickers
Feb 2014, and it had generated c.40m user accounts in about 2
months. MoDoo Marble (, developed by CJ Games) Mobile games could account for c.23% of Tencents online
became the top mobile game on the iOS platform in Aug14, game revenue, or c.13% of its overall revenue this year (as per
and Candy Crush Saga (developed by King Digital) reached our estimates), and we believe accelerating growth momentum
the top in Sep14. in mobile games could enhance Tencents overall revenue
growth ahead.
Riding on licensed games, Tencent could widen its game
offerings to customers, and the company could still enjoy good
margins as the channel provider. According to industry sources,
Tencent could receive c.70% of gross revenue of the licensed
mobile games, with the rest going to game developers.
Operating under this model, Tencent could save most of the
development costs, and lower the execution risk. Hence,
Tencent is able to focus on promoting licensed games and
benefit both parties, in our view.
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Tencent, 4.6%
Google China,
4.2%
Sohu, 3.5%
Qihoo 360,
3.0%
Appstore
Youku Tudou, ads Overlay
2.4%
ads
Baidu, 32%
Source: iResearch
Page 26
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Performance-based ads gaining traction. Traditionally, online E-commerce: Joining hands with JD.com. Tencent formed
ads were priced according to time or number of showcases. strategic cooperation with JD.com in Mar 2014, and provides
Pricing models of these ads were predominantly CPT (cost per Level-1 access to JD.com on Weixin and Mobile QQ apps. In
time) and CPM (cost per mille). Seeing ad clients rising demand this way, users of Weixin and Mobile QQ can access JD.coms
for performance-based ads (i.e. ads are priced according to their webpage by clicking only once on their apps. Besides, Tencent
effectiveness), Tencent launched the Guangdiantong ( would direct user traffic to JD.com from other platforms such as
)online ad system in Jun 2013, and combined its ad Qzone and Tencent News. Tencent would also dispose QQ
resources on multiple platforms into the system. Wanggou (B2C online marketplace) and Paipai.com (C2C online
marketplace), as well as 10% stake of Yixun.com (B2C direct
Together, Tencents platforms have >800m active users, and sales platform) to JD.com. JD.com would have the right to buy
>10bn user visits per day. Guangdiantong uses CPC (cost per out Yixun.com at its fair value or RMB800m, whichever is higher.
click) and CPA (cost per action) as major pricing models, helping In return, Tencent acquires c.18% stake in JD.com (post IPO),
to align interests of Tencent and its ad clients. Besides, and receives RMB631m in cash from JD.com.
Guangdiantong adopts a real-time bidding system for ad
clients, helping Tencent to enjoy better pricing for its prime ad Following the cooperation, most of Tencents e-commerce
resources. operations would be incorporated into JD.com. Thanks to
Tencents support on user traffic and key processes including
Since its launch, Guangdiantong has helped to drive ad online payment channels, we believe JD.com would have better
revenues for Tencent. For instance, upon purchasing Tencents potential to compete with Alibaba Group in e-commerce. As for
ad resources via Guangdiantong, Xiaomi () launched its Tencent, it could leverage on JD.coms e-commerce success,
RedMi mobile phones at Qzone last year. Over 7m customers and generate greater synergies with its core businesses such as
placed orders for RedMi, and 100,000 units were sold out online gaming and online ads.
within 90 seconds of the launch. Vanke () spent only a
small sum of RMB30,000 on Guangdiantong to send ad
messages via QQ to selective customers, and it generated >20m
user views and RMB4m property sales, implying good return on
the investment.
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Growth drivers
Mobile game market size in China
Page 28
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Source: Company
Page 29
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
On the other hand, Tencent has invested in a series of Tencent has not started the monetization process given its focus
international internet companies, such as CJ Games, Activision on user experience.
Blizzard, Epic Games and Daum Kakao (previously Kakao Corp.).
Tencents overseas acquisitions have created good synergies Looking into the upcoming years, we believe mobile game
with its core businesses (especially online games and social would gather steam again on accelerated game launches,
networks), and we think it is a wise way to swiftly build up its especially for licensed games. Online ads could be well
overseas presence. supported by further ramp-up of Guangdiantong ad system,
and e-commerce may be less of a drag on an easier base. We
Better years ahead. Overall, Tencents near-term performance are encouraged to see Tencents efforts in monetizing its
could likely be dragged by mild revenue growth for mobile strengths in online gaming, social networks and online ads, and
games, and decline in e-commerce sales following disposal of we believe rising synergies with JD.com would allow both
most e-commerce operations to JD.com. Besides, many new parties to become strong e-commerce players, and thus
functions have just been added to Weixin and Mobile QQ, and enhance Tencents medium-term outlook.
Page 30
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Valuation & recommendation In view of Tencents leadership in online gaming, platform value
with QQ and Weixins large user base, as well as good potential
Trading at a discount to Alibaba and Baidu. As per our in online ads and e-commerce (cooperating with JD.com), we
estimates, Tencent is currently trading at c.26x 12-month rolling believe it is justified to compare Tencents valuation with
core PE, or c.0.7x PEG. The stock has been trading between 25x Alibaba Group and Baidu, the internet leaders in China.
to 35x rolling core PE this year, as investors value its decent According to consensus, Alibaba is trading at c.39x 12-month
mobile game development and dominant positions for Weixin rolling PE or c.1.0x PEG, and Baidu trades at c.28x rolling PE or
and Mobile QQ. c.0.9x PEG. Hence, we believe 0.9x PEG is a reasonable target
multiple for Tencent.
Core PE band chart for Tencent (since 2013)
As a cross-check, global internet leaders such as Google and
eBay on average trades at c.1.3x PEG, given their technological
Share Price (HK$) advantages and international exposure. Tencents 0.9x target
200 PEG could be justified, in our view.
35x
180
160 31x Initiate coverage with BUY and TP of HK$148. At 0.9x PEG, the
140 27x target PE multiple for Tencent is 32x 12-month rolling core PE.
120 22x Our Target Price is hence set at HK$148, offering 23% upside.
100 18x We initiate coverage on Tencent with BUY recommendation.
80
60 Key risks and concerns. In our view, downside risk may come
40 from slowdown in game revenue especially for client games and
20 web games, unsuccessful monetization efforts on Weixin and
0 Mobile QQ, and rising content costs for video and games amid
intensifying competition.
Oct-13
Oct-14
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Jul-14
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers
Page 31
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Key Assumptions
FY Dec 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F
Combined MAU of
160.8 355.0 547.1 754.2 897.1
Weixin & Wechat
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) (737) (1,554) (1,561) (378) (2,687) (3,261) Operating Margin % Net Income Margin %
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 45.0 54.0 37.7 29.9 26.0 28.7
EBITDA Gth (%) 30.1 31.3 23.9 39.6 31.2 27.2
Opg Profit Gth (%) 23.7 26.3 19.9 55.6 31.4 28.1
Net Profit Gth (%) 26.7 24.8 21.8 55.7 27.2 29.2
Page 33
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) N/A N/A 38.4 37.0 36.6
Opg Profit Gth (%) N/A N/A 20.4 19.6 43.5
Net Profit Gth (%) N/A N/A 27.7 16.4 59.2
Margins
Gross Margin (%) 59.6 57.6 55.1 53.1 59.7
Opg Profit Margin (%) 39.1 35.1 34.0 30.6 35.7
Net Profit Margin (%) 30.0 28.2 27.7 23.9 32.2
Page 34
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 36.6 34.3 39.6 35.8 37.3 27.5
Opg Profit Gth (%) 17.0 17.2 22.2 28.7 58.6 57.3
Net Profit Gth (%) 18.7 20.1 12.9 59.7 58.6 46.3
Margins
Gross Margin (%) 54.2 54.7 51.7 57.6 61.6 63.8
Opg Profit Margin (%) 32.8 32.1 29.3 33.4 37.9 39.6
Net Profit Margin (%) 25.6 24.9 23.0 35.1 29.6 28.6
Page 35
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Dep. & Amort. 1,939 2,621 3,606 2,981 3,577 4,292 6000
5000
Tax Paid (1,836) (2,225) (3,118) (5,480) (7,214) (9,323)
4000
Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 190 80 (171) 95 76 61 3000
(Pft)/ Loss on disposal of FAs 97 21 0 0 0 0 2000
Chg in Wkg.Cap. 1,177 3,507 5,915 1,979 2,392 2,772 1000
Other Operating CF (308) 374 (1,139) (292) (848) (1,165) 0
2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F
Net Operating CF 13,358 19,429 24,374 28,905 35,951 45,708
Capital Expenditure (-)
Capital Exp.(net) (5,504) (4,088) (4,564) (5,506) (6,332) (7,282)
Other Invts.(net) (3,697) (11,427) (9,841) 0 0 0
Invts in Assoc. & JV (3,724) (3,668) (4,465) (5,124) (5,893) (6,777)
Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Investing CF (2,431) 2,913 (264) (1,380) (1,587) (1,825)
Net Investing CF (15,355) (16,270) (19,134) (12,011) (13,812) (15,884)
Div Paid (838) (1,108) (1,468) (2,286) (2,909) (3,760)
Chg in Gross Debt 6,678 (1,059) 4,699 591 650 715
Capital Issues (1,326) 97 (1,295) 0 0 0
Other Financing CF (140) (316) (228) (6,947) (3,106) (4,907)
Net Financing CF 4,373 (2,386) 1,708 (8,642) (5,365) (7,951)
Currency Adjustments (172) (2) (103) 0 0 0
Chg in Cash 2,204 771 6,845 8,252 16,774 21,873
Opg CFPS (RMB) 1.34 1.74 2.02 2.94 3.66 4.69
Free CFPS (RMB) 0.86 1.68 2.16 2.55 3.23 4.19
Page 37
Regional Company Focus
JD.com
Bloomberg: JD US Equity | Reuters: JD.O Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
35.1
33.1
209 An online direct sales leader. JD.com is Chinas leading
31.1 189
B2C direct sales operator, and stands out on its product
29.1
27.1
169
149
quality, competitive pricing and self-operated logistics
capability. The company is leveraging on its integrated
25.1
23.1 129
21.1
19.1
109 business model to enhance user experience, and its logistics
17.1
May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14
89
network could be further improved by the ramp-up of
JD.com Inc (LHS) Relative CCMP INDEX (RHS)
facilities, especially the Asia No.1 automated warehouses.
More synergies from Tencent cooperation. JD.com has
Forecasts and Valuation formed strategic cooperation with Tencent since Mar 2014,
FY Dec (RMB m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F where JD.com would incorporate Tencents QQ Wanggou
Turnover 69,340 112,437 170,845 245,566
EBITDA 182 1,366 1,545 3,126 and Paipai.com to enhance its own e-commerce presence.
Pre-tax Loss (2,485) (13,135) (2,266) (1,242) As more users can access JD.com via Weixin and Mobile QQ
Net Loss (2,485) (13,139) (2,266) (1,242) platforms, we believe JD.com could benefit from rising
Core Profit (non-
GAAP)*
224 (223) (173) 1,280 mobile contributions and stronger user traffic down the road.
EPS (RMB) (1.80) (9.51) (1.64) (0.90) Better scalability ahead. Riding on its logistics capability,
EPS (US$) (0.29) (1.55) (0.27) (0.15)
Core EPS (US$)* 0.03 (0.03) (0.02) 0.15 as well as Tencents support in terms of user traffic and
Core EPS (RMB)* 0.16 (0.16) (0.13) 0.93 online payment channels, JD.coms online marketplace had
Core EPS Growth (%)* N/A N/A (22) N/A generated 214% y-o-y GMV growth in 9M14, and it could
BV Per Share (US$) 1.09 3.41 3.14 2.98
Core PE (X)* 907.8 nm nm 158.9 enhance the companys overall profitability ahead. We
P/Cash Flow (X) 57.0 301.1 40.3 26.0 currently expect JD.com to turn profitable in 2016F (based
P/Free CF (X) 86.2 nm 52.2 31.8 on core profit), and our TP of US$30.8 is based on 1.5x 12-
EV/EBITDA (X) 1043.6 131.4 115.6 56.2
Net Div Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
month rolling P/Sales ratio. Initiate coverage with BUY
P/Book Value (X) 22.0 7.0 7.6 8.0 recommendation.
Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH
ROAE (%) (47.2) (68.7) (8.1) (4.8) At A Glance
* Core profit excludes one-off / non-cash items such as losses from
Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,382
preferred share redemption, share-based compensation & amortization.
Earnings Rev (%): New New New Mkt. Cap (US$m) 33,044
Consensus EPS (RMB) (0.004) 0.024 0.284 Major Shareholders
Other Broker Recs: B: 12 S: 0 H: 8 Mr. Richard Qiangdong Liu (%) 20.1
ICB Industry: Consumer Services Tencent (%) 17.6
ICB Sector: General Retailers Tiger Global Management (%) 15.6
Principal Business: A leading online direct sales operator in China, Hillhouse Capital Management (%) 11.0
with emerging marketplace operations DST Global (%) 6.8
Free Float (%) 28.9
Source of all data: Company, DBSV, Thomson Reuters, HKEX Avg. Daily Vol.(000) 5,135
www.dbsvickers.com
ed-TH/ sa- MH
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
INVESTMENT THESIS
Profile Rationale
JD.com is the leading online direct sales operator in China, and Focus on user experience
stands out on its good product quality, high service standards
JD.coms direct sales model and in-house fulfilment
and timely delivery capability. The company launched its online
infrastructure could enhance product quality and
marketplace in 2010, helping to enhance its growth prospects
delivery speeds, so as to improve customer experience
ahead.
especially during the peak season for e-commerce.
Valuation Risks
Our Target Price is based on 1.5x 12-month rolling P/Sales ratio, Intensifying competition
which is the average valuation for online direct sales operators
Downside could include intensifying competition with
such as VIPShop, Jumei, China Dangdang and Amazon.
leading e-commerce operators, especially Alibaba
Group.
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weakness
Leading B2C direct sales operator in China High requirement in management of working capitals,
especially inventories
Stands out on product quality and competitive pricing,
thanks to its direct operation model Direct operating model could carry low margins
Timely delivery capability aided by in-house fulfilment
infrastructure
Opportunities Threats
Rising contributions from online marketplace could widen Intensifying competition with leading online
product offerings marketplace operators, especially Alibaba Group
Launch of Asia No.1 automated warehouses could beef
up logistics capability ahead
Penetration into the low-tier markets enhances business
outlook
Strategic Cooperation with Tencent to bear fruit
Internet finance could be the long-term driver
Page 40
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Company overview
China B2C direct sales market share (2013)
An online direct sales leader. JD.com stands as the leading
B2C direct sales operator in China, with c.47% market share Amazon
Yixun.com China,
in 2013 (source: iResearch). The company was founded by Mr.
Suning.com *, 5.8% 5.6%
Richard Qiangdong Liu in 2004, and it stands out on good VIPShop,
, 10.7% 5.4%
product quality, competitive pricing and timely delivery
capability. The company launched its online marketplace in Dang Dang,
4.7%
2010, aiming to widen product offerings to fulfil customer
needs. As of 3Q14, JD.com had c.46m active customer GOME
Online,
accounts, with c.50,000 merchants operating on its online 3.9%
marketplace.
JD.com, Yihaodian,
46.5% 3.7%
Vancl,
1.7%
Others,
12%
Source: Company
Page 41
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
100%
83% 79%
80%
65% 63% 62%
60% 52% 50%
40%
26%
20%
0%
Product variety
After-sales services
Product quality
Gifts
Website user
Logistics service
Used to it
experience
Source: Company
Page 42
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Fulfilment capability is the key. Besides product quality and was launched in Oct 2014, with GFA of c.100,000 s.m. (for
service standards, we believe timeliness of product deliveries the 1st phase). The warehouse operates on automated sorting
could be essential to good customer experience. As such, technologies that could sort up to 16,000 packages per hour,
JD.com has operated own fulfilment infrastructure (i.e. with 99.99% accuracy. The Shanghai Asia No.1 warehouse
warehousing and delivery facilities) since 2007. We believe significantly enhances JD.coms delivery capability in E.China,
JD.com runs the largest e-commerce fulfilment operations in especially during the peak season of Singles Day promotion
China, with 118 warehouses (total GFA of c.2.3m s.m.), 2,045 in Nov 2014.
delivery stations and 1,045 pickup stations across 1,855
Construction of Asia No.1 warehouses in Guangzhou,
counties and districts as of 30 Sep 2014. Majority of JD.coms
Wuhan and Shenyang has started, targeting to be launched in
products could be delivered to end customers within 3 days of
2015. More Asia No.1 warehouses in Beijing, Chengdu and
purchase, versus peers that could spend up to a week.
Xian have been planned for the coming years, helping to
In particular, JD.com has focused on constructing highly- further improve JD.coms logistics capability in these areas.
automated warehouses, Asia No.1 (), in the key
areas. The companys fist Asia No.1 warehouse in Shanghai
Page 43
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
"211 (211 )" 130 counties and Orders placed before 11am could be deliv ered w ithin the same day ; orders placed
districts before 11pm could be deliv ered by 3pm the next day .
Small-sized products that use J D.com's w arehousing and deliv ery serv ices could be
entitled to the program. c.41% of the orders placed in 2013 w ere under this program.
Next-day deliv ery 815 counties and Orders placed could be deliv ered the next day . Products that use J D.com's
( ) districts w arehousing and deliv ery serv ices could be entitled to the program.
Night-time deliv ery Beijing, Shanghai, Orders placed by 3pm could be deliv ered at 7pm-10pm that day . Small-sized products
( ) Chengdu, Guangzhou, that use J D.com's w arehousing and deliv ery serv ices could be entitled to the program.
Wuhan
Timed deliv ery Selectiv e regions Specific deliv ery time could be set in the 7 day s follow ing the orders (10 day s for
( ) home appliances). Products that use J D.com's w arehousing and deliv ery serv ices could
be entitled to the program.
Speed deliv ery Beijing, Shanghai, RMB49/order. Products could be deliv ered w ithin 3 hours of purchase.
( ) Guangzhou, Chengdu
Tw o-day deliv ery Regions not cov ered by Products could be deliv ered w ithin 48 hours of purchase. Products that use J D.com's
( ) "211" and "Next-day w arehousing and deliv ery serv ices could be entitled to the program.
deliv ery "
"211 for home Selectiv e regions Orders placed before 11am could be deliv ered w ithin the same day ; orders placed
appliances before 6pm could be deliv ered by 8pm the next day . Large-sized products that use
( 211 )" J D.com's w arehousing and deliv ery serv ices could be entitled to the program.
Night-time deliv ery for Beijing, Shanghai, Orders placed by 3pm could be deliv ered at 6pm-10pm that day . Large-sized products
home appilances Guangzhou, Shenzhen that use J D.com's w arehousing and deliv ery serv ices could be entitled to the program.
( )
Customer pickup 1,045 pickup stations Customers could pay and collect the products at J D.com's pickup stations.
( )
Source: Company
Expanding sales categories. JD.com started off selling digital Currently JD.com is working with >6,000 suppliers to offer
products in 2004. Aimed to enhance its growth prospects, the >2.4m SKUs (stock-keeping units) at its direct sales operations.
company has actively expanded to new categories including
Leveraging on customer recognition and supports such as in-
home appliances, general merchandise, personal care
house fulfilment capacity and after-sales services, JD.com
products, food & beverage, auto parts and media products.
launched its B2C online marketplace in 2010, allowing
Page 44
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
merchants to sell their products at its website. Within a few GMV growth by segment
years, the online marketplace has attracted >50,000
merchants, offering c.38m SKUs in total (vs. >2.4m SKUs 472%
500%
offered by JD.coms direct sales arm). GMV (gross 450%
merchandise value) of online marketplace had also been 400%
growing rapidly to account for 36% of total GMV in 9M14 (vs. 350%
25% for 2013). JD.com aims to offer standardized products 300%
(e.g. digital and home appliance products) mainly at its direct 250% 214%
sales platform, while non-standardized products are mainly 200%
sold at its marketplace. 150% 92%
100%
Percentage of GMV from online marketplace 50% 90%
0% 65% 68%
2012 2013 9M14
40% 36% Online direct sales
35% Services & other revenues (online marketplace)
Page 45
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
2015F
2016F
2017F
2010
2011
2012
2013
30 200%
E-commerce market size (LHS) 20 16.6 92%
Growth y-o-y (RHS) 100%
10 2.9
Note: In terms of GMV (general merchandise value). 0 0%
Source: iResearch 2011 2012 2013 9M14
m Source: Company
60%
450 70%
390
400 49% 60% Fulfilment: Building up strengths in key regions. JD.coms first
350 302 Asia No.1 automated warehouse in Shanghai was launched
43% 50%
300 38% in Oct 2014, helping to enhance its delivery capability
35% 242
250 40% especially during the Singles Day promotion in Nov14.
194
200 161 30% JD.com has been constructing another three Asia No.1
150 warehouses in Guangzhou, Wuhan and Shenyang, to be
20%
100 completed in 2015. It also has plans to develop more Asia
50 10%
No.1 warehouses in cities like Beijing, Chengdu and Xian.
0 0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F In addition, JD.com has set up Forward Distribution Centers
Number of customers (LHS) (FDC, ) around its key warehouses, to improve
As % of total netizen (RHS) logistics coverage especially for the best-selling products. The
company has operated multiple FDCs in cities like Jinan,
Source: CNNIC Nanjing and Chongqing. Riding on its fulfilment network
covering >1,800 counties and districts, JD.com provides
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
delivery services to >90% of orders from direct sales, and Rising synergies from Tencent cooperation. Mobile orders
>30% of orders from merchants in its online marketplace. We accounted for c.30% of JD.coms total orders in 3Q14, and
believe JD.coms strengthening delivery capability could attract the majority of mobile orders were generated via JD.coms
more merchants to cooperate, and improve customer own app, rather than Weixin and Mobile QQ. We believe
experience ahead. there could be good potential for Weixin and Mobile QQ to
ramp up their contributions to JD.com. The company has
JD.coms Asia No.1 Warehouse in Shanghai actively cooperated with Tencent to develop better access
points on Weixin / Mobile QQ, and we stay confident on rising
mobile contribution for JD.com down the road.
m
300
+ 22%
243
250
200
200
150
100
59
42 + 40%
50
0
2012 2013
Urban online customers Rural online customers
Source: CNNIC
Page 47
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
JD.com
Fina nce Unit
C o n sumer finance
S u pply chain fina nce O n line payment F ina ncia l products C r ow d funding ( )
Consumer Credit Line
Jing Bao Bei ( ) Chinabank Payments Jing Xiao Dai( ) Cou Fen Zi ( )
( )
Page 48
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Valuation & recommendation DCF valuation implies fair price of US$31.4. We have run a DCF
valuation to cross-check our valuation for JD.com. Based on a
Scale is the priority. JD.com believes that gaining market share is
10-year horizon, 4% terminal growth and 13% WACC, our
the winning strategy in e-commerce, hence it does not have any
DCF-based fair price for the company could be US$31.4, which
profit target for 2014F-2015F. That said, thanks to better scale
is fairly in line with our TP of US$30.8.
and rising contributions from online marketplace (with higher
margins than direct sales), we expect JD.coms overall gross
DCF valuation for JD.com
margin to gradually improve to 12.4% / 13.3% for 2015F /
2016F (vs. 11.2% for 9M14), and the company could become
T erminal grow t h: 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
profitable starting 2016F (based on non-GAAP core profit).
Initiate with BUY. Given JD.coms direct sales model (direct sales RM B m
could account for c.95% of total net revenue this year), we Equit y v alue 253,792 262,462 272,156
believe it is justified to compare its price-to-sales valuation with
other major online direct sales players, namely VIPShop, China F air Pric e (USD) 30.4 31.4 32.6
Dangdang and Jumei in China, as well as Amazon in the US.
Based on consensus estimates, these players on average trade at A ssumpt ions:
c.1.5x 12-month rolling P/Sales ratio, which we believe is Risk-free rate 2.2% Cost of debt 4.0%
reasonable for JD.com. Hence, our TP is hence set at US$30.8, Beta 1.5 D/E ratio 0.1%
offering 29% upside. We initiate coverage on JD.com with BUY
rating. Market return 9.5% RMB/USD 0.17
(NASDAQ) rate
WACC 13.0%
Price-to-sales valuation for JD.com
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Vickers
Pric e t o sales (x ) 2014F 2015F 2016F
Risks and concerns. Major risks related to JD.com could include
J D.Com*^ 1.8 1.2 0.8 intensifying online price competition that could hurt its margins,
as well as pressure from major marketplace operators, especially
V IPShop 3.4 2.1 1.4 the Alibaba Group.
China Dangdang 0.4 0.4 0.3
J umei Int'l 2.6 2.0 1.5
Amazon.Com 1.7 1.4 1.2
A v erage 2.0 1.5 1.1
Page 49
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
May-14
Oct-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Nov-14
Jul-14
Jul-14
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers
Page 50
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Management profile
Source: Company
Page 51
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Key Assumptions
FY Dec 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F
GMV - online direct sales
56.7 93.7 148.7 223.0 317.6
(RMB bn)
GMV - online
16.6 31.8 89.8 163.6 257.7
marketplace (RMB bn)
GMV (RMB bn) 73.3 125.5 238.6 386.6 575.3
Page 52
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 95.8 67.6 62.2 51.9 43.7
EBITDA Gth (%) (23.6) N/A 651.5 13.1 102.3
Opg Profit Gth (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Net Profit Gth (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) N/A N/A 64.4
Opg Profit Gth (%) N/A N/A N/A
Net Profit Gth (%) N/A N/A N/A
Margins
Gross Margin (%) 9.7 10.0 10.6
Opg Profit Margin (%) (0.3) (0.5) (0.7)
Net Profit Margin (%) (4.6) (2.7) (24.1)
Note: Core profit excludes one-off / non-cash items such as losses from preferred share redemption, share-based compensation and amortization of
intangibles.
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 65.1 63.9 60.8
Opg Profit Gth (%) N/A N/A N/A
Net Profit Gth (%) N/A N/A N/A
Margins
Gross Margin (%) 10.0 11.0 12.2
Opg Profit Margin (%) (0.6) (0.8) 0.4
Net Profit Margin (%) (23.3) (24.6) (0.6)
Note: Core profit excludes one-off / non-cash items such as losses from preferred share redemption, share-based compensation and amortization of
intangibles.
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
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Industry Focus
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Appendix
China internet sector Total revenue size Revenue breakdown for China internet sector (2013)
RMB bn
CAGR= 28% %
2,000 52% 60%
51% 1,723
1,800 Online ads
50% Online
1,600 21%
Online payment
1,400 38% 3%
40% games
1,200 15%
1,000 826 30%
800 600
20% Others
600 398 6%
400 262
10% E-commerce
200 55%
0 0%
2011 2012 2013 2014F 2017F
Number of netizens & mobile netizens in China Number of e-commerce customers in China
m m
60%
700 618 632 450 70%
564 390
600 527 400 49% 60%
513 500
500 457 350 302
420 43% 50%
384 300 38%
400 356 35% 242
298 303 250 40%
300 194
233 200 161 30%
200 118 150
20%
100 100
50 10%
0
0 0%
Jun-14
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
RMB bn RMB bn
75% 5,634 80%
6,000 70% 800 81% 90%
59% 4,772 70% 700 68% 80%
5,000 64%61%
51% 60% 600 70%
4,000 46% 3,780 51% 50% 60%
50% 500 44%46%
37% 43%42% 50%
3,000 2,760 40% 400
26% 31% 40%
1,892 30% 300
2,000 18% 30%
1,187 20% 200
785 20%
1,000 461 10% 100
217 260 287 422 364 427 462 640 525 624 691 10%
0 0% 0 0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
E-commerce market size (LHS) Growth y-o-y (RHS) E-commerce market size (LHS) Growth y-o-y (RHS)
Note: In terms of gross merchandise value (GMV). Note: In terms of gross merchandise value (GMV).
Tencent B2C
100% 5.6%
90%
Suning.com
80% 42% 40% 3.7%
52% 46%
70% 65% 60%
75% JD.com Amazon
60% 86% 16.4% China
50% 2.0%
40% VIPShop
1.9%
30% 58% 61%
48% 54% Dang Dang
20% 35% 40% Others
25% 1.6%
10% Tmall 7.6% GOME
14%
0% 57.7% 1.6%
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
2010
2011
2012
2013
Yihaodian
VANCL 1.3%
0.6%
B2C C2C
Note: B2C Business to consumers; C2C Consumers to consumers. Note: In terms of gross merchandise value (GMV).
Page 59
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
China: Mobile operating system (OS) market share (2013) China: Preferred mobile internet connections (1H14)
60% 55%
50%
Windows
2%
Apple iOS 40%
23%
Symbian 30%
0.4%
Others
7% 20% 17%
Android 15%
68%
10% 6%
0%
Wifi 4G 3G 2G & 2.5G
China: Breakdown of mobile internet users by city tier China: Pattern of internet usage between urban & rural
(1H14) netizens (2013)
Page 60
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
China: Paid service categories for mobile netizens (1H14) Number of mobile game users in China
70% 62% m
60% 250 50%
215
50% 200 40%
33% 43%
40% 30%
34% 139
31% 150 26% 30%
30% 25% 107
19%
18% 100 78 20%
20% 14%
10% 7% 45
50 10%
0%
management
0 0%
Education
network
Games
Readings
News
Life-style
Social
Note: Among all the respondents that had paid for internet services.
Popularity of mobile games by genre (1H14) Reasons to choose game platforms (2013) Strong
influence from social networks
Game variety
Free resources
Game quality
Easy to operate
Easy to register
Friends are using
Note: Percentage of respondents that had played the genre of game. Note: Percentage of respondents that agreed with the reason.
Source: CNNIC survey (sample size = 30,000) Source: CNNIC survey (sample size = 30,000)
Page 61
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Purpose to pay for mobile games (2013) Payment methods in mobile games
0% 0%
Tenpay ()
Credit cards
Mobile accounts
Online banking
Point cards /
Alipay ()
Recharge accounts
Subscription services
Pay to down games
Q Coin
operators
in games
items
2012 2013
Note: Among all the respondents that had paid for mobile games. Note: Among all the respondents that had paid for mobile games.
Source: CNNIC survey (sample size = 30,000) Source: CNNIC survey (sample size = 30,000)
Factors to consider when purchasing online (2013) Percentage of e-commerce customers that have made
purchases via mobile devices
Note: Percentage of respondents that would consider the factor. Note: Among all the respondents that had made online purchases.
Source: CNNIC survey (sample size = 30,000) Source: CNNIC survey (sample size = 30,000)
Page 62
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Laiwang ()
Whatsapp
Renren Desktop
Pengyou ()
Papa ()
Renren ()
Ali Wangwang
QQ
Qzone (QQ)
YY
Feixin ()
Skype
Miliao ()
Yixin ()
51.com (51)
Kaixin ()
Weixin
Douban ()
Weishi ()
Immomo ()
Line
Note: Percentage of respondents that had used the product. Products in Note: Percentage of respondents that had used the product. Products in
red are invested by Tencent. red are invested by Tencent.
Source: CNNIC survey (sample size = 30,000) Source: CNNIC survey (sample size = 30,000)
China: Market share of app stores (1H14) China: Market share of mobile app (1H14)
Page 63
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
M ale F emale
A ge 24 & below 25- 40 41 & abov e A ge 24 & below 25- 40 41 & abov e
2 Weixin QQ QQ Weixin QQ QQ
Source: EnfoDesk
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Communic at ions:
Name M onet iz at ion User Base
QQ Game Platform Monthly subscription fee for V IP priv ileges (RMB10-15) or item sales Not disclosed
ACGs Monthly subscription fee for V IP priv ileges (RMB10-30) or item sales Combined ACU of 7.7m (3Q14)
(See Table 2)
MMOGs Monthly subscription fee for V IP priv ileges (RMB20) or item sales; Time- Combined ACU of 1.7m (3Q14)
based (See Table 3)
Mobile Games Monthly subscription fee for V IP priv ileges (RMB10) or item sales Not disclosed
Brand display Inv entories on QQ.com and v erticals; regional portals; online v ideo Ov er 1,000 brand display adv ertisers as
platform; QQ IM; Tencent News app, etc. of 3Q14
Pricing mainly by CPT or CPD.
Performance display Inv entories mainly on social networks: Qzone, QQ IM, Weixin Official
Accounts, and Microblog, etc.
Pricing mainly by CPC or CPA through bidding sy stem.
Note: MAU - Monthly active users; PCU - Peaking concurrent users; ACU - Average concurrent users; ACGs - Advanced Casual Games; MMOGs
Massively Multiplayer Online Games; CPT - Cost per time; CPD - Cost per day; CPC - Cost per click; CPA - Cost per action.
Source: Company
Page 68
Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
G ame T it le Commerc ial Dev eloper G enre Charging M odel PCU M ilest one
L aunc h
Commerc ializ ed:
QQ Tang 1Q05 In-house Casual sty le combat F ree; monthly subscription fee for V IP N/A
QQ priv ileges (RMB10); or item sales
R2beat 3Q06 Licensed Roller-blade racing F ree; monthly subscription fee for V IP N/A
QQ priv ileges (RMB10); or item sales
QQ Speed 1Q08 In-house Car racing F ree; monthly subscription fee for V IP 3m as of 3Q12
QQ priv ileges (RMB10); or item sales
QQ Dancer 2Q08 In-house Music and dancing F ree; monthly subscription fee for V IP 3m as of 4Q12
QQ priv ileges (RMB20); or item sales
Crossfire 3Q08 Licensed F PS F ree; monthly subscription fee for V IP 4m as of 3Q12
priv ileges (RMB30); or item sales
A.V .A. (Alliance of 1Q10 Licensed High-end F PS F ree; monthly subscription fee for V IP N/A
V alient Arms) priv ileges (RMB30); or item sales
League of Legends 3Q11 In-house MOBA F ree; item-based 8m as of 1Q14
(Riot Games) globally
Assault F ire 3Q12 In-house F PS F ree; item-based N/A
Pipeline:
Call of Duty Online TBC Licensed High-end F PS TBC N/A
Online
Core F ight TBC In-house 2D side-scrolling TBC N/A
fighting game
Metro Conflict: Presto TBC Licensed Science fiction theme TBC N/A
F PS
Three Kingdoms TBC In-house RTS TBC N/A
Online
SMITE TBC Licensed 3D MOBA TBC N/A
Note: ACG - Advanced Casual Games; PCU - Peaking concurrent users; FPS - First-person Shooter; MOBA - Multiplayer Online Battle Arena; RTS -
Real-time Strategy.
Source: Company
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Commerc ial
Game T it le L aunc h Dev eloper G enre Charging M odel M ilest one
Commerc ializ ed:
Timi Match Ev ery day 3Q13 In-house Puzzle F ree; item-based Registered user accounts ov er
40m as of Aug 2013;
Timi Link Ev ery day 3Q13 In-house Puzzle F ree; item-based N/A
Rhy thm Master 3Q13 In-house Music F ree; item-based N/A
Timi Run Ev ery day 3Q13 In-house Action F ree; item-based N/A
F ight the Landlord 4Q13 In-house Traditional board F ree; item-based N/A
& card
Plants V s Zombie 2 2 4Q13 Licensed Tower defense F ree; item-based N/A
We Heroes 4Q13 Licensed Card F ree; item-based N/A
Timi Speed Ev ery day 4Q13 In-house Action F ree; item-based N/A
We F ly 1Q14 In-house Shooter F ree; item-based Registered user accounts ov er
100m as of Mar 2014
Mahjong 1Q14 In-house Traditional board F ree; item-based N/A
& card
We Poker 1Q14 In-house Card F ree; item-based N/A
Tower of Sav iors 1Q14 In-house Puzzle & card F ree; item-based N/A
Thunder F ighter 1Q14 Licensed Shooter F ree; item-based Registered user accounts nearly
40m as of Apr 2014
We Dance 2Q14 In-house Music F ree; item-based N/A
Ev ery body PongPongPong 2Q14 Licensed Mini game F ree; item-based N/A
We Town 2Q14 In-house Simulation F ree; item-based N/A
We F ight 2Q14 In-house Action F ree; item-based N/A
Castle Clash 2Q14 Licensed Strategy F ree; item-based N/A
Taming Monster 2Q14 Licensed Action & card F ree; item-based N/A
All Men are Brothers 2Q14 In-house Card F ree; item-based N/A
My Elf 2Q14 In-house Simulation F ree; item-based N/A
J oy ful West 3Q14 In-house Card F ree; item-based N/A
QF arm 3Q14 In-house Simulation F ree; item-based N/A
Mini Empire 3Q14 Licensed Strategy F ree; item-based N/A
Candy Crush Saga 3Q14 Licensed Puzzle TBC N/A
MoDoo Marble 3Q14 Licensed Simulation F ree; item-based N/A
Pipeline:
Battle Of Sango TBC Licensed Card TBC N/A
F ruit Ninja TBC Licensed Action TBC N/A
Source: Company
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
Commerc ial
G ame T it le L aunc h Dev eloper Desc ript ion Charging M odel PCU
Roco Kingdom 3Q10 In-house Community , targeting F ree; RMB10 per month for V IP priv ileges PCU ov er 1m
children (1Q13)
Source: Company
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited (DBSVHK), a direct wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte
Ltd ("DBSVH"). This report is intended for clients of DBSV Group only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated
in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVHK.
The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to
DBSVHK and/or DBSVH) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are
subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not
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information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate
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in the securities mentioned in this document. DBSVHK, DBS Bank Ltd and their associates, their directors, and/or employees may have positions in,
and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other
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Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can
be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments.
The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it
may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report.
The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and
assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on
which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual
results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED
UPON as a representation and/or warranty by DBSVHK and/or DBSVH (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that:
a. such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and
b. there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk
assessments stated therein.
Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies)
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nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies
and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation
was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of the date the report is
published, the analyst and his / her spouse and/or relatives and/or associate who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in
the securities recommended in this report (interest includes direct or indirect ownership of securities, directorships and trustee positions).
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Industry Focus
China Internet Sector
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rd
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