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For permission, please submit a request to PR@stratfor.com.
The Geopolitics of Sweden:
A Baltic Power Reborn
Editor’s Note: This is the ninth in a series
of STRATFOR monographs on the
geopolitics of countries influential in world
affairs.
The heart of Sweden is the southern tip of the Scandinavian Peninsula, just northeast of Denmark.
This is by far the premier territory on the entire peninsula and encompasses the most temperate
climate and fertile land in the entire region. A quick glance at a satellite map vividly illustrates just
how much longer growing seasons are in the Swedish core compared to its Scandinavian neighbors.
Click here to enlarge map
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of the population lives in Norrland, which encompasses more than half the modern country’s territory.
Norway and Finland are far less threatening for Sweden. The mountains of Norway form as excellent a
defensive barrier to invasion as they block to Sweden’s ability to project power westward. There is one
pass that accesses the Trondheim region, but it is sufficiently rugged to prevent significant power
projection (in modern times it has been used as a transportation route for Swedish goods when the
Baltic region experiences a harsh winter). And since the only portion of Norway that can support a
meaningful population — the capital region of Oslofjord — is hard by the Swedish border, and all of its
meaningful ground-transportation infrastructure has to go directly through Sweden to reach the rest of
Europe, Norway has never threatened Sweden in modern times. In fact, Norway was twice
incorporated into a union with Sweden, most recently in the 19th century.
To the east, Finland is an important buffer for Sweden from Russia, although it formed part of the
Swedish Empire until its annexation to Russia in the early 19th century. Just where the international
boundary is drawn (today at the Torne River) is less important than the relationship between
Stockholm and Helsinki. Since its disastrous 1808-1809 Finnish War, Sweden has had plans for the
defense of its homeland from a Russian invasion by fighting on the turf of northern Scandinavia. So
long as Stockholm can prevent Finland from being used as a staging ground for such an attack (as
during the Finnish War, when Russian troops managed to cross via Finland and nearly take
Stockholm), Finland can serve as a buffer.
The Baltic Sea’s southeastern coastline — today home to the three tiny states of Estonia, Latvia and
Lithuania — is sandwiched between Sweden and Russia and serves as the natural cultural, economic
and military battleground for the two powers. The Polish coast is well within Sweden’s naval reach, but
lying as it does on the Northern European Plain, it forces Sweden to compete there with not only
Russia but also Germany — and, of course, Poland — all of which have far larger populations than
Sweden and less complicated supply problems. This largely limits Swedish activity there to commerce.
© 2009 STRATFOR 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900 Austin, TX 78701 Tel: 1-512-744-4300 www.stratfor.com
Luckily for the Swedes, commerce is something that they are quite good at, but they approach trade
in a radically different way from most maritime cultures. These differences are rooted in peculiarities
of Swedish geography that make Sweden unique both as a maritime and commercial power.
Most maritime cultures are island-based and, as such, are oceangoing (the United Kingdom comes to
mind). Sweden, in contrast, is locked into a single sea and has many rivers that do not interconnect.
This made Sweden much more at home with riverine naval transport and combat than activity on the
open ocean. Also, because Sweden’s climate — especially in its northern reaches — is so hostile, in
lean years its sailors had to resort to raiding to survive, contributing to the rise of a Viking culture.
Taken together, Swedish force in medieval times proved able to push far inland using Europe’s river
networks to their advantage, and the proclivity to raid (versus the British proclivity to establish
colonies) shaped Sweden’s imperial and commercial experiences greatly.
History
The retreat of ice around 10,000 B.C. that had enveloped most of Northern Europe during so-called
“last glacial period” allowed for the settlement of Scandinavia by various Germanic tribes that
eventually evolved into today’s Norwegians, Swedes and Danes. Population increase due to advances
in agricultural techniques, combined with a Scandinavian geography that limited growth, eventually led
to the Viking Age (approximately 750-1050). Scandinavians left their fjords and sheltered bays to
wreak havoc, pillage and loot the European continent. The Danes, closest to the Continent, were the
first to pursue political control and settlement, extending their control over the British Isles and
northern France (establishing Normandy in the 10th century, although the question of whether
Normandy was also established by Norwegian Vikings is still open). Norwegian Vikings, meanwhile,
expanded via the Norwegian Sea, which led them to various outlying islands in the Atlantic — the
Faroes, Hebrides, Orkneys, Shetlands, Ireland, Iceland and Greenland — and eventually Newfoundland
in North America.
Since they were essentially blocked off from the free-for-all their relatives the Danes and Norwegians
were engaged in throughout the North and the Norwegian seas, the Scandinavians living on what is
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today Sweden’s eastern seaboard concentrated on expansion via the Baltic Sea and its various gulfs:
the Gulf of Bothnia, the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. They were also able to use the land bridge
of Karelia, which stretches from the White Sea (a gulf in the Barents Sea, which itself is part of the
Arctic Ocean) to the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. Karelia was an extremely important strategic
region for the Vikings, and through its control they were able to access Europe even without complete
control of the Baltic Sea. It is also the one region that Sweden has continuously competed for against
various Russian political entities.
Denmark’s growing power and command of a strategic, powerful and profitable location on the Jutland
peninsula also curtailed Swedish expansion. A dynastic union between Norway, Sweden and Denmark
was established in 1397, in part because the Swedes were looking to gain greater protection from
various German and Baltic powers eroding their influence in the Baltic Sea. However, Denmark was far
too powerful to join with in a supposedly decentralized union of equals. With its strategic location
controlling the sea routes between the Baltic and the Atlantic and with a foothold in continental
Europe, Denmark very quickly began to dominate its northern brethren. Trouble started less than 40
years after the proclamation of the union, and throughout the 15th century the Swedish and
Norwegian nobility attempted to resist Danish domination. The political and military threat to Swedish
core regions was finally eliminated when Sweden seceded from the union in 1523.
Following independence from Denmark, Sweden grew in confidence and turned its attention towards
the Baltic region once again — its default region of interest. However, this meant conflict with Russia,
now in its much more politically coherent incarnation than when the Swedish Vikings first encountered
it. Major war with Russia ended in 1617 with great gains for Sweden, including Estonia and Latvia.
Russia was denied access to the Baltic for essentially the next 100 years.
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With a foothold in continental Europe established early in the 17th century, Sweden turned its
attention to Poland and German states bordering the Baltic. The Protestant Reformation gave Sweden
a useful excuse for deepening involvement on the Continent. Swedish engagements in Poland
eventually led to involvement with various German states, with now-powerful and assertive Sweden
supporting Protestant states against Catholic states. Eventually, Sweden pushed for involvement in
Europe’s Thirty Years’ War, which, while religious in nature, also was a litmus test for a rising Sweden
to determine how far on the Continent it could project its influence.
The fulcrum for Sweden’s decline was the Great Northern War (1700-1721), which pitted Sweden
against essentially all of its neighbors: Poland, Denmark, Norway and Russia. Early on, Sweden
successfully defended against the attack using its well-trained military, but it soon became apparent
that it could not withstand the combined forces of all four rivals, particularly because a rising Russia
during the reign of Peter the Great was ready and willing to fight Sweden in a war of attrition to gain
access to the Baltic. Sweden ultimately lost its Baltic possessions, Estonia and Latvia, as well as parts
of the crucial Karelia land bridge. Peter the Great, looking to establish a permanent Russian presence
on the Baltic that could withstand future Swedish encroachment on the Neva River, founded St.
Petersburg while the war against Sweden was still going on. That the Russian Empire moved its capital
to St. Petersburg is a testament to just how serious Russia perceived the Swedish threat to be and
how much importance it placed in the land bridge between the Baltic Sea and Lake Ladoga, which St.
Petersburg was meant to control.
In 1721, Sweden’s defeat in the Great Northern War ultimately relegated its status to that of a
secondary power in Europe, and the next 87 years saw much warfare in the region as Sweden tried to
regain its lost influence. In the process, Sweden became a pawn in the larger geopolitical game of
containing Russia’s rising power. Both France and the United Kingdom encouraged Sweden’s wars
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against Russia, since they wanted to distract Russian advances on the crumbling Ottoman Empire,
which would have threatened the Mediterranean. Sweden’s attempts to regain influence ultimately
ended in 1808 in the disastrous Finnish War against the Russian Empire, which cost Sweden its Finnish
possessions and essentially ended its influence over the eastern Baltic region. For all intents and
purposes, Sweden had been reduced to irrelevance by 1808, when it established an official policy of
neutrality that has lasted, essentially unchanged, for the past 200 years.
By retreating to its core, Sweden was fortunate enough to be left alone by other powers. Its policy of
neutrality was largely respected because of its geography; invading Sweden was simply not necessary
for any participant in the great continental wars that followed the Napoleonic conflicts. Sweden also
kept itself out of the colonial scramble that dominated European affairs in the 19th century and thus
did not enter into any conflict with its European neighbors even beyond the region.
Nonetheless, Sweden’s tradition of military innovation, nurtured by the conflicts of the 17th and 18th
centuries, continued with the advent of industrialization, which Sweden embraced in earnest. Sweden
began a serious rearmament program in response to German militarization before World War II. The
combination of Swedish military innovation with industrial capacity and its aggressive defense of
neutrality (similar to the Swiss approach) has bestowed Sweden with one of the most advanced — and
independent — military-industrial complexes in Europe, certainly one that belies Sweden’s small
population and puts many more powerful countries to shame.
Geopolitical Imperatives
Sweden’s core is the extreme southern tip of the Scandinavian Peninsula — in essence a peninsula on
a peninsula — because that tip is the warmest and most fertile area on any landmass in the region.
Sweden’s peninsular nature gives it a strong maritime culture, but the geography of Denmark —
blocking access to the North Sea and thus the wider oceans — forces Sweden to focus its activities
eastward toward the Baltic region. Thus, here are Sweden’s key imperatives as a nation-state:
• Expand the Swedish core north to include all coastal regions that are not icebound in the
winter. In the west, this grants Sweden coastline on the Skagerrak strait, giving it somewhat
more access to the North Sea. Stockholm, the current capital, is situated at the southernmost
extreme of the Baltic winter iceline.
• Extend Swedish land control around the Gulf of Bothnia until reaching meaningful resistance.
The tundra, taiga, lakes and rivers of northern Sweden and Finland provide a wealth of
defensive lines that Sweden can hunker behind. Due to the region’s frigid climate, the specific
location of the border — at the Torne River in the modern era — is largely academic. At
Sweden’s height it was able to establish a defensive perimeter as far south as the shores of
Lake Ladoga, just east of modern-day St. Petersburg.
• Use a mix of sea and land influence to project power throughout the Baltic Sea region. Unlike
most European powers, Sweden does not benefit greatly from the direct occupation of adjacent
territories. The remaining portions of the Scandinavian Peninsula boast little of economic value,
while the rest of the Baltic coast lies on or near the Northern European Plain, a region that is
extremely difficult to defend against the often more powerful Continental powers. This gives
Sweden the option, perhaps even the predilection, to expand via trade links, cultural influence
and the establishment of proxy states. Using these strategies along with rivers as routes of
influence, Sweden has dominated the Baltic Sea region for centuries and at times its influence
has reached as far inland as modern-day France, Ukraine and the Caspian Sea.
Sweden Today
Sweden originally chose neutrality because it had lost. Russia seized not only its forward positions but
shrank Sweden down to little more than its core territory. As the decades rolled by, German states
that Sweden had once dominated unified into a major Continental power, introducing a player to the
south that Sweden could not hope to influence, much less dominate.
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So for Sweden, changes imposed by post-World War II alignments were somewhat of a relief.
Denmark’s alliance with the United Kingdom and the United States in the context of NATO ensured
that the Soviet Union would have to focus its efforts on Copenhagen, not on Stockholm. The division of
Germany between NATO and the Warsaw Pact removed from the board the one power that had flirted
with the idea of conquering Sweden in World War II. (Germany occupied Norway and was outraged
with the Soviets for their invasion of Finland, considering it “their” territory.) Sweden may have been
isolated and surrounded by much larger powers, but these powers were focused on each other, not on
Stockholm.
Nonetheless, German flirtations with invading Sweden during World War II convinced Stockholm that
an independent and advanced military-industrial complex was certainly a useful thing to cultivate.
Sweden was even suspected of developing an independent nuclear deterrent in the 1960s. Sweden
was not leaving its neutrality up to chance, or to the benevolence of its neighbors.
Sweden today plays a key leadership role in the Baltic Sea region. Its financial institutions practically
own the Baltic states (although the current economic recession has negatively exposed Swedish
penetration in the Baltics, this penetration is likely to continue despite potential losses). Sweden also
boasts a strong military with an independent military-industrial complex and is respected as a key
member of the European Union by the main powers on the Continent. The Baltic Sea region has
historically been one of the more prosperous regions of Europe (giving rise to the Hanseatic League, a
political entity united first and foremost by commerce). For much of the 20th century, however, the
Baltics have been divided between two competing geopolitical blocs. With the lines of the Cold War
withdrawn, the region is again gaining prominence as a center of commerce, trade and energy
transportation. Sweden is very well poised not only to take advantage of this Baltic revival but also to
lead it.
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Sweden assumes the presidency of the European Union on July 1, and it has aggressively moved to
place the development of the Baltic region at the top of its presidential agenda. It is fitting that
Sweden will head the union almost exactly 200 years following the disastrous Finnish War, which
relegated Sweden to regional irrelevance. In those 200 years, Stockholm has patiently waited for a
chance to once again emerge as a leader of Europe’s north.
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