HSL PCG Currency Insight-Weekly

04 February, 2017
 WEEKLY MOVEMENT MARKET WRAP UP
Rupee to Head Higher back by Foreign Fund Flows and Good Budget
Rupee climbs to twelve week high following foreign fund inflows and pretty
Currency good budget announcement. The currency ended at 67.32 -a level last
seen on 11 November 2016, up 1.1% from its previous close of 68.04.
Currency Prev. % FII's bought nearly $635.60 million in equity over the last twelve trading
Last Chg.
(Spot) Close Chg. sessions and have been buyers on all but one trading sessions over this
DXY Index 99.87 100.53 -0.6620 -0.7%
period. Since the beginning of this year, the rupee has gained 0.91%,
while foreign institutional investors have bought $111.40 million from local
EURUSD 1.0783 1.0699 0.0084 0.8% equity.
GBPUSD 1.2484 1.2555 -0.0071 -0.6% India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $782.7 million to $361.557
billion in the week to January 27, helped by increase in foreign currency
USDJPY 112.61 115.10 -2.4900 -2.2% assets, the Reserve Bank said. In the previous week, the reserves had
USDINR 67.3163 68.0363 -0.7200 -1.1% surged by $932.4 million to $360.775 billion.
Technically, spot USDINR is having 200 SDMA Support at 67.23 and
EURINR 72.2870 72.7650 -0.4780 -0.7%
previous bottom 67.71 becomes resistance in near term, with bias remains
GBPINR 83.9475 85.2952 -1.3477 -1.6% bearish.
JPYINR 59.4900 59.1500 0.3400 0.6%
Dollar Drops for Six Weeks and expected to accelerates
DGCX USDINR 67.2857 68.3387 -1.0530 -1.5% The dollar marked its sixth consecutive weekly loss, the steepest weekly
drop since July amid U.S. employment data that showed robust hiring was
marred by little evidence of wage pressures. The greenback remains
RBI Reference Rate defensive amid uncertainty about the Trump administrations dollar policy
and as the president imposed fresh sanctions on Iran.
Prev. % Dollar has mostly priced in the two hike scenario this year, so some
Currency Last Chg.
Close Chg. improvement on the supply side suggests less scope on the inflation side
USDINR 67.3825 68.2043 -0.8218 -1.2%
to push the greenback higher.
The dollar likely to remain under pressure in coming days amid weaker
EURINR 72.4429 72.7467 -0.3038 -0.4% technical and Trump administrators dollar policy. The dollar strength can
GBPINR 84.3225 85.4941 -1.1716 -1.4% only come if Fed stays ahead of the ECB and BOJ in tightening monetary
policy.
JPYINR 59.6000 59.2400 0.3600 0.6%
MSCI EM Currencies Post 7th Weekly Gain
The Emerging Market currencies and stocks climb after US jobs report
GOI 10 Yr. Bond Yield bolsters case for Fed to keep rates low, increasing the appeal of riskier
assets. MSCIs EMFX gauge extends longest weekly run since May 2015
Instrument Last
Prev.
Chg.
% following gain in Turkish Lira and African Rand.
Close Chg. Technical setup is favouring further rise in EMFX incoming days with near
697GS2026 6.4090 6.4020 0.0070 0.1% term resistance at 1567.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

US Week Ahead
U.S. trade deficit was probably little changed in December after widening in November to a nine-month high. US Net exports
erased 1.7% points from 4Q GDP which is unlikely to be revised if December trade meets consensus, expected to be little
changed, at $45.0 billion.
US level of unemployment benefit claim continue to register multi decade lows, with little sign of deviating from that trend.
During the week ended Jan. 28, claims fell by 14k to 246k, and carried an associated four-week moving average of 248k,
which was lower than the 12-month average of 260k. These exceptionally low levels suggest that businesses anticipate a
steady pace of aggregate demand as they refrain from furloughing workers, especially for those workers with unique skill sets.
US Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (voter) speaks about the economy and monetary policy at an event in Chicago. He
already made public comments shortly after the January employment report was released. He indicated that he expects two
rate hikes this year, although he could be comfortable with three. He also emphasized the need for the economy to
undershoot the neutral unemployment rate in order to boost inflation. Evans has been among the more dovish members of
the FOMC.
Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony before Congress on Feb. 14-15 and the latest FOMC meeting minutes on Feb. 22
could shine some light on policy makers' thinking about the impact of potential fiscal expansion and the development of a
firmer strategy for unwinding the Fed's balance sheet.

Europe Week Ahead

On Wednesday, U.K. Parliaments lower house concludes debate on the bill to trigger Brexit with a final vote at about 14:00
EST. Once passed by the Commons, the draft law moves to the House of Lords. Any potential amendments to the bill forced
through by opposition lawmakers will be worth watching.
ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak to the European Parliament.

Asia Week Ahead

The Reserve Bank of India is likely to ease monetary policy in bi monthly meet schedule on 07-08 Feb. Falling inflation and
fiscal prudence signaled by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in the budget give the central bank room to cut the policy rate by
25bp to support growth. Lower net government borrowing should help lower bond yields and leave more space for the private
sector to tap financial markets. The decision will come around 2:30pm on 08th Feb.

WEEKLY PRICE - VOLUME - OI (PVO)

OPEN
WKLY WKLY OI VOLUME WKLY VOL.
CURRENCY PAIR HIGH LOW CLOSE INTERES
% CHG. % CHG. (VOL.) % CHG.
T (OI)
NSE INRUSD Future Feb17 68.3050 67.4125 67.4675 -1.22% 1377878 21.9% 786934 -34.4%
NSE EURINR Future Feb17 73.5700 72.5000 72.5225 -0.73% 55740 1.5% 51677 26.4%
NSE GBPINR Future Feb17 85.9750 84.1800 84.2425 -1.64% 44546 18.0% 85594 60.1%
NSE JPYINR Future Feb17 60.1950 59.4200 59.6850 0.42% 20757 -15.6% 29550 -10.8%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT USDINR
USDINR Feb. Future CMP 67.47
DAILY CHART
Weekly
Currency
Pivot

Resistance 2 68.62
Resistance 1 68.04
Pivot 67.73
Support 1 67.15
Support 2 66.84

USDINR: SELL FEB FUT AT CMP,

SL 67.70, TGT 67.20

In last 5 sessions pair has fallen

from 68.31 to 67.40 levels
Pair has broken previous bottom
support of 67.33 on the daily
chart.
Dollar index has been sustaining
below 100 levels. This could
result in to depreciation of dollar
against rupee.
Short term support for the pair is
placed at 67.20, while far
support is placed at 66.50
Resistance for the pair is placed
at 67.90
For traders, we advise going
short in the pair at CMP for the
downside target of 67.20
keeping SL at 67.70.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT EURINR
EURINR Feb. Future CMP 72.52
DAILY CHART
Weekly
Currency
Pivot

Resistance 2 73.93
Resistance 1 73.23
Pivot 72.86
Support 1 72.16
Support 2 71.79

EURINR FEB FUT: CORRECTION

MAY EXTEND BUT NOT LIKELY TO
SUSTAIN
From the high of 73.57, pair has
fallen to 72.50 odd levels in 5
sessions.
On Friday, Pair has breached
short term support of 72.69.
The existing correction is likely to
continue as short term support is
violated.
Pair could further fall toward 72-
72.20 around which one should
exit shorts.
Pair has breached 20 DMA
support.
However, bottom made in
December around 70.50 is
unlikely to breach in the pair and
therefore cutting shorts around
72-72.20 is advisable.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT GBPINR
GBPINR Feb. Future CMP 84.24
DAILY CHART
Weekly
Currency
Pivot

Resistance 2 86.59
Resistance 1 85.42
Pivot 84.80
Support 1 83.62
Support 2 83.00

GBPINR: SELL FEB FUT FOR THE

TARGET OF 83.20, SL 84.70

Pair has recently fallen from 86.27

to 83.93. so it has been health
correction in short span of time.
Pair has breached the support of
its 20 DMA.
Pair has formed bearish engulfing
pattern on the weekly charts.
Support for the pair is seen at 83-
83.20.
Short term Resistance is seen at
84.70, while far resistance is seen
at 86.
We advise selling GBPINR Feb
Fut., for the downside target of
83.20, keeping SL at 84.70.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT JPYINR
JPYINR Feb. Future CMP : 59.69

Currency
Weekly DAILY CHART
Pivot

Resistance 2 60.54
Resistance 1 60.11
Pivot 59.77
Support 1 59.34
Support 2 58.99

JPYINR : HOLD SHORTS WITH

60.62 STOPLOSS
Recent pair on the daily chart is
placed at 60.62
Primary trend has been bearish
on weekly charts.
From December 2016, pair
started recovering from the low
of 57.33 and has reached a level
of 60.60 recently.
Oscillator RSI has been showing
the sign of weakness in the pair.
Any level below 59.17 in Feb
Fut. would result in to fresh
breakdown in the pair
Existing short can beheld with
60.62 SL in Feb Fut. However,
traders can initiate aggressive
short below 59.17.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

DOLLAR INDEX EURUSD

DXY: Daily Chart

EURUSD: Daily Chart

GBPUSD USDJPY

USDJPY: Daily Chart

GBPUSD: Daily Chart

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR FEB. MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION

Data Interpretation:
The highest Open interest is seen on 69 call strike with total open interest of 2.78 lakh which indicates out of the money
call writing by the traders to hedge the position. In the week gone by, trader added 67.50 call and put along with addition
of 67.00 put suggesting further downside. However, the activity below 67 strike is minimal, traders dont expect much
downside below 67.
The put call ratio remained at 0.86 from previous weeks 0.70 for the near month indicating further bearishness in the pair.
Looking at the above distribution, the pair could face stiff resistance around 68.40 while hold the support around 66.90.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR FUTURE OPEN INTEREST CHANGE

Data Interpretation:

USDINR February future marked third consecutive weekly loss to end at 67.47, plunging 1.22% from previous weeks
68.30. It has given range breakdown last week with good addition in open interest indicating further downside. Last week,
open interest pegged at 14 lakh contracts from previous week 11 lakh contracts.
Aggregate open interest for the week around 20 lakh from previous weeks 24 lakh.
The pair would continue to head towards 67 marks in coming days amid fresh short buildup.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

INDIA FOREX RESERVE
Indian Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Billions)
Wkly Chg. 27-Jan 20-Jan 13-Jan 6-Jan 30-Dec 23-Dec
Total Reserves 0.78 361.56 360.78 359.84 359.15 360.29 359.67
Foreign Currency Assets 0.78 339.21 338.43 337.5 336.82 336.58 335.97
Gold 0.00 18.58 18.58 18.58 18.58 19.98 19.98
Special Drawing Rights 0.00 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.43 1.43
Position in IMF 0.00 2.32 2.32 2.31 2.31 2.3 2.29

FOREIGN FUND FLOW VS USDINR

Positive Net Foreign Equity Invt.

Negative Net Foreign Equity Invt.
Positive Net Foreign Debt Invt.
Negative Net Foreign Debt Invt.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCIES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 YEAR
CURRENCY PAIR CLOSE
(% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.)
DOLLAR INDEX SPOT 99.868 0.08 (0.66) (3.24) 2.79 4.50 2.65
Euro Spot 1.0783 0.22 0.79 3.63 (2.90) (3.28) (2.90)
British Pound Spot 1.2484 (0.34) (0.57) 2.02 0.18 (6.31) (14.51)
Japanese Yen Spot 112.61 0.17 2.21 4.56 (8.55) (10.10) 4.70
Indian Rupee Spot 67.3163 0.09 1.07 1.51 (0.84) (0.48) 1.12
Brazilian Real Spot 3.123 (0.04) 0.57 4.55 3.81 3.70 24.75
Australian Dollar Spot 0.768 0.29 1.71 6.39 (0.03) 1.21 7.13
South Korean Won Spot 1147.7 (0.07) 2.04 4.86 (0.73) (2.63) 6.25
S. African Rand Spot 13.2667 1.00 1.56 4.27 1.49 4.84 20.04
Canadian Dollar Spot 1.3023 0.03 1.00 3.10 2.87 0.34 5.82
Swiss Franc Spot 0.993 (0.03) 0.63 3.46 (1.92) (1.99) 1.14

MAJOR COMMODITIES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 YEAR
COMMODITY CLOSE
(% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.)
GOLD 1220.3 0.36 2.44 5.30 (6.33) (10.15) 6.80
SILVER 17.5129 0.16 2.17 7.46 (4.62) (14.20) 19.26
CRUDE OIL 53.83 0.54 1.24 1.01 15.69 20.18 28.60

MAJOR INDICES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 YEAR
INDEX CLOSE
(% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.)
Nifty 50 8741.0 0.08 1.15 6.03 3.64 0.67 16.72
S&P BSE SENSEX INDEX 28240.5 0.05 1.28 5.54 3.54 0.58 14.72
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 20071.5 0.94 (0.11) 0.54 12.20 8.24 23.86
S&P 500 INDEX 2297.4 0.73 0.12 0.90 10.18 5.25 22.20
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 5666.8 0.54 0.11 2.64 12.29 8.54 29.88
FTSE 100 INDEX 7188.3 0.67 0.05 (0.30) 7.40 5.81 22.92
CAC 40 INDEX 4825.4 0.65 (0.30) (1.72) 10.23 9.41 14.87
DAX INDEX 11651.5 0.20 (1.38) 0.45 13.57 12.39 25.47
NIKKEI 225 18918.2 0.02 (2.82) (2.76) 11.91 16.39 12.48
HANG SENG INDEX 23129.2 (0.24) 0.35 2.78 2.15 4.44 19.91
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE 3140.2 (0.60) 0.55 (0.45) 0.48 5.49 13.63

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS NEXT WEEK
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
02/06/2017 07:15 CH Caixin China PMI Composite Jan -- 53.5
02/06/2017 07:15 CH Caixin China PMI Services Jan -- 53.4
02/06/2017 14:40 EC Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Jan -- 50.4
02/07/2017 10:30 JN Coincident Index Dec P 115.1 115
02/07/2017 14:00 UK Halifax House Prices MoM Jan 0.00% 1.70%
02/07/2017 19:00 US Trade Balance Dec -$45.0b -$45.2b
02/07/2017 20:30 US JOLTS Job Openings Dec 5569 5522
02/08/2017 14:30 IN RBI Repurchase Rate 8-Feb 6.00% 6.25%
02/08/2017 14:30 IN RBI Reverse Repo Rate 8-Feb 5.50% 5.75%
02/08/2017 14:30 IN RBI Cash Reserve Ratio 8-Feb 4.00% 4.00%
02/08/2017 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 3-Feb -- -3.20%
02/09/2017 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 4-Feb 249k 246k
02/09/2017 19:00 US Continuing Claims 28-Jan 2065k 2064k
02/10/2017 05:20 JN PPI YoY Jan 0.00% -1.20%
02/10/2017 15:00 UK Trade Balance Dec -3500 -4167
02/10/2017 15:00 UK Industrial Production YoY Dec 3.20% 2.00%
02/10/2017 15:00 UK Manufacturing Production YoY Dec 1.70% 1.20%
02/10/2017 17:30 IN Industrial Production YoY Dec 1.40% 5.70%
02/10/2017 20:30 UK NIESR GDP Estimate Jan -- 0.50%
02/10/2017 20:30 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb P 97.8 98.5
02/10/2017 CH Trade Balance Jan $48.85b $40.71b
02/10 - 02/15 IN Trade Balance Jan -$10680.0m -$10369.4m

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

KNOWLEDGE CENTRE

How Importers And Exporters Could Use A Forex Hedge To Minimise Losses

An important tool in the global financial markets, hedging is used in every asset class to mitigate losses. This can be
utilised by anyone, whether it is an individual or corporate, to overcome the negative impact of price volatility.

For the corporate in which the business activity is dependent on import and export of commodities, there is an automatic
exposure to foreign exchange and, hence, the need for hedging is higher. In the current context, since the world markets
are interlinked, they eventually affect and impact the movement of currencies.

Hedging, in any asset class, is ultimately a strategy to decrease or transfer risk in order to protect one's portfolio or
business from uncertainty in prices. In case of hedging in the foreign exchange market, a participant who is entering a
trade with the intention of protecting the existing position from an unexpected currency move, is said to have created a
forex hedge.

With the help of a forex hedge, a participant who is long in a foreign currency pair, can protect himself from the downside
risk. On the other hand, a hedger who is short on a foreign currency pair will protect his existing position from the upside
risk.

The strategy to create a hedge would depend on the following parameters: (a) risk component (b) risk tolerance and (c) to
plan and execute the strategy.

The impact of the movement in the USD-INR currencies affects both importers and exporters. In other words, an importer
will benefit when the rupee appreciates, while the exporter will gain when the rupee depreciates against the US dollar. The
cost of import reduces when the rupee gains strength, thus benefiting an importer, and at the same time creating a loss for
the exporter, since a stronger rupee will reduce the export remittances when converted to Indian rupees.

In order to reduce the risks associated with these uncertain movements in the financial markets, both importers and
exporters can utilize the derivatives platform of currency futures. By creating an equal and opposite position in the
derivatives market, a hedge can be created.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

KNOWLEDGE CENTRE

How Hedging Works For An Importer

Suppose an oil importer wants to purchase oil worth $1,00,000 and places his order on 11 March 2016, with the delivery
date being three months away. At the time of placing the contract in the spot market, one US dollar is worth, say, Rs
66.50. However, suppose the Indian rupee depreciates to Rs 69 per dollar when the payment is due in June 2016, the
value of the payment for the importer goes up to Rs 69,00,000 rather than Rs 66,50,000.

In this case, if the importer hedges the currency risk, the losses can be reduced. Here's how the hedging strategy for the
importer would work:

Buy 100 lots of USD June 2016 contracts on 11th March 2016, assuming that June 2016 contract is trading at 67 on 11th
March 2016.
Then in June 2016, He square off 100 lots USD at 69. Profit of Rs. 200000, i.e. 1000 lot size* (69-67) *100.
Then importer makes the payment of oil purchase at 69 per dollar

Had the importer not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 2,50,000 (Rs 69,00,000 - Rs 66,50,000).
However, by creating a hedge position on the futures platform, his losses were reduced to Rs 50,000 due to profits in
currency hedge.

How An Exporter Can Use Hedging

A Jeweller, who is exporting gold jewellery worth US$50,000 in March 2016, wants protection against a possible
appreciation in the Indian rupee in June 2016 (spot Rs 66.50), when he receives his payment. When he is required to make
the payment in June 2016, suppose the rupee appreciates to 64. If, in this situation, he wants to lock in the exchange rate
for the above transaction, his strategy would be as follows

In March 2016, Sell 50 lots of June 2016 contract USD with a lot size of 1000,spot market @66.50. Assume that initially
the Indian rupee depreciated, but later appreciated to 64 per USD as foreseen by the exporter at end of June 2016.

Had the exporter not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 75,000, i.e. (50*1000*(66.50-64)), but by
creating a hedge he has made a profit of Rs 75,000 in the futures, offsetting his business loss. Hence, exposure
management is essential, given the premise of a volatile foreign exchange market. Hedging in the currency markets,
therefore, holds prime importance.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Research Analyst(Equity and Currency): Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Research Analyst(Currency): Dilip Parmar (dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Above HDFC Bank, Astral Tower, Nr. Mithakadi 6 Road, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat.
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Disclosure:
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]