International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)

Volume 8, Issue 2, February 2017, pp. 173181 Article ID: IJCIET_08_02_019

Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=8&IType=2
ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316

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ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL PATTERN AND

TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS IN THREE REGIONS
OF SULTANATE OF OMAN
Dr. K. H. Jonathan and Dr. P. Suvarna Raju
Department of Health, Safety and Environmental Management,
International College of Engineering and Management, Seeb, Muscat, Sultanate of Oman

ABSTRACT
Rainfall and temperature are important parameters that determine the climatic condition
of a region andis a growing concern in the current situation. Growing industrialization and
increasing use of fossil fuels are putting pressure and effecting the regional and global
temperatures that are subsequently influencing the overall precipitation levels. GCC and Arab
countries are mostly dominated by dry climate and hot winds for most part of the year with
little or no rainfall in most regions. In Middle east, specifically GCC countries economy
depends on oil and gas production, processing, and exports, and these resources are used for
electricity generation across all the six countries. This practice invariably is releasing more of
greenhouse gases coupled with industrial emissions annually from industrialized zones.
Among the six GCC nations, Oman has the second largest land area next to Saudi Arabia and
has significant quantities of oil and gas resources and limited ground water resources.
Scarcity of ground water poses serious problems for farming and potable water that cannot be
supported by scanty or less rainfall annually. In absence of considerable data on rainfall
pattern and temperature deviations, this paper is focused to highlight the rainfall scenario over
temperature changes by studying the rainfall patterns over three designated regions for a
certain duration. In Oman rainfall patterns and temperatures are stimulated by the weather
changes and mostly by heavy industrialization in the recent past. Precipitation data and
temperature profiles are two dependent parameters that are analyzed to achieve the objectives
of the study. Regression analysis is performed to understand the trend in the rainfall pattern
with changes in temperature in the three designated regions of Oman using the data of 14
years. The study revealed significant outcomes indicating distinct relationship between rainfall
and temperature. Changing ambient temperatures in each region has shown to influence the
rainfall pattern differently in Muscat region contrasting the Maseira and Sur region of the
study area. The trend in rainfall pattern with one unit temperature variations are not uniform
across all the three study regions that show apparent variations due the differently
contributing factors such as topography, wind speed, direction, mountain ranges, relative
humidity, and proximity to sea etc. that would govern the precipitation rates.
Key words: Climate change, GCC, precipitation, regression, rainfall, temperature.

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 Analysis of Rainfall Pattern and Temperature Variations in Three Regions of Sultanate of Oman

Cite this Article: Dr. K. H. Jonathan, Dr. P. Suvarna Raju, Analysis of Rainfall Pattern and
Temperature Variations in Three Regions of Sultanate of Oman. International Journal of Civil
Engineering and Technology, 8(2), 2017, pp. 173181.
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=8&IType=2

1. INTRODUCTION
Global rainfall patterns associated with changing temperatures globally are growing cause of concern
that are becoming vital indicators for climate change currently [1]. Climatic factors predominantly
precipitation rate facilitate the growth and development of civilizations and leads to habitat
development. Rainfall patterns and rate over a region are reliant on the ambient and global water
evaporation and to significant extent on altitude, latitude, and level of humidity [2]. Earths mixture of
contributing gases aid in facilitating the overall phenomena of precipitation and the variation in the
gaseous composition leads to disruption in the atmospheric events and weather phenomena [3].
Warmer conditions apparently brought out from increased emissions of greenhouse gases though
industrialization causes evaporation and precipitation with varying degree of intensity on individual
regions [4]. In this paper, the rainfall rate and patterns of three prominent regions in the sultanate of
Oman is studied with relation to temperature and to estimate the rainfall decline rates from periodical
temperature surges. Three principal locations viz, Maseira (island), Sur (Ash Sharqiyah region) and
Muscat in (Muscat governate) Sultanate of Oman are chosen for the study [13].

1.1. Study Area

Sultanate of Oman is located in the south eastern corner of Arabian peninsula in south west Asia
covering an area of 309,500 km2, lies between latitudes 16 and 28 N, and longitudes 52 and 60 E
[5]. The country borders United Arab Emirates in the north west, Saudi Arabia in the west and Yemen
in the south west [1]displayed in Fig. 1.
The climate is arid to semi-arid with very little annual rainfall of <100 mm compared to the global
average of 1123 mm [6]. Oman has coastline of 1700 km from the north to south and some parts of the
coast, particularly near the island of Masirah, sometimes receive zero rainfall within the course of a
year [7]. The climate in general is hot with temperatures reaching around 50 C (122.0 F) peak in the
hot season, from May to September and winter temperatures 15 C to 23 C from October to February
[1].

1.2. Climate Dynamics

Climate change globally is an extensive effect of anthropogenic pollutants released from various
human activities and natural causes to a lesser extent. The Earth's climate has changed many times in
response to natural causes, however, evidences elsewhere indicate that climate change has commenced
primarily by natural causes over human activities [8]. However, [9], [10] commends that human
activities are principal factors contributing to global climate change that have eventually led to
environmental pollution and increasing ambient temperatures. Increased use and combustion of fossil
fuels through automobiles and industries are resulting in prevailing heat waves and inconsistent
evaporation from aquatic ecosystems.
Aerosols and particulate pollutants from fossil fuel combustion traps heat from the incoming solar
radiation and influences the temperature of a region causing higher level of weather variability,
frequent occurrences of extreme weather events, shorter winters, and drier and hotter summers [11],
[12]. Studies in middle east show that winter period (cold days) have reduced from 1970s with
corresponding increase in warmer days from 1990s, though in Arab countries the ambient
temperatures have increased from 2 C to 5.5 C and precipitation rate declined by 0-20%.

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 Dr. K. H. Jonathan, Dr. P. Suvarna Raju

2. METHODOLOGY
The relationship between temperature and precipitation are examined based on the data fromMinistry
of National Economy [MoNE] and Ministry of Environment and Climate Affairs (MECA).
Information from local people in the three regions; Fig 1. Masirah, Sur and Muscat is also gathered to
assess the temperature and precipitation phenomena during the study period (1996-2009). A rainfall
and temperature detail for the study is collected from multiple sources such as national centre for
statistics and information (NCSI), statistical year book 2010.

Figure 1 Regions of study [13].

Line histogram chart displays the rainfall and temperature relationship data to indicate trend over
time. Minitab 14 version program software is performed to analyze the relationship between the two
variables; rainfall and temperature. The magnitude of trend in a time series is determined either using
regression analysis [parametric test] or using Sens estimator method (non-parametric method).
Though these methods assume a linear trend in the time series [14], in this study simple regression
model is used to evaluate the rainfall/temperature indicators of the three designated regions.
Simple linear regression formula for evaluating the relationship between the two variables is used
for all the three designated regions. The main emphasis of regression analysis is done to ascertain the
causal effect of one variable upon another. Temperature [T] as independent variable and rainfall rate
[R] as dependent variables are used for the selected three regions; Masirah, Sur, and Muscat to relate
abnormal temperature influence on precipitation proportion.

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Analysis of the rainfall data in the designated regions of Oman [1996-2009], reveals that the
precipitation is decreasing inconsistently with insignificant pattern, like the observations confirmed
during the study period 1977-2003 [7]. The annual average rainfall during the latter period was 117.0
mm recorded for 31 stations in Oman, with varying levels of precipitation amongst recorded stations.
Reduced condensation and cloud formation influences such fluctuations and low precipitation rate
locally due to the prevailing heat wave conditions during most of the year in Oman.

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 Analysis of Rainfall Pattern and Temperature Variations in Three Regions of Sultanate of Oman

This probably remains as the main factor for declining rainfall rate in Oman. Accordingly,
increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases eventually builds more surface heat that would bring
major shifts in precipitation rates most likely from slight alterations in temperature. Arab countries in
the Middle East region would experience an increase in temperature of 2C to 5.5C with project
decrease of 0-20% precipitation by the end of 21 st century [15]. Fig.2 shows the gradual decrease of
rainfall rate in Oman from 1996-2003 that forecasts a significant relationship between temperature and
precipitation of each region.

3.1. Simple Regression Model

The association between temperature and precipitation in the three designated regions are identified by
using simple linear regression model as this is an effective statistical tool for studying the relationship
between variables. The below formula is used to examine the relationship between temperature and
precipitation.
Simple regression formula for analysis of temperature and rainfall
R= + T
Where, R= Rainfall = Dependent value and;
T= Temperature = Independent value
From the above equation, the anonymous of and need to be determined for calculation by
using the steps;
= [(Ti- T) (Ri - R)] / [ (Ti - T)2]
= -605.6/19 = -31.9
Ti = Mean value of temperature
Ri= Mean value of rainfall
Later, = Ri - * Ti formula will be used to calculate anonymous as below equation
The calculation shows below:
= Ri - * Ti
= 36.9 - (-31.9) (41.7) = 1367.13
As the anonymous and are now identified, the values will be directly substituted to the
simple linear regression formula to find the values.
R= + T
R= 1367.1 + -31.9T
The results of the regression analysis for the three designated regions are shown in Table1. The
table 2. below shows the temperature and rainfall values of the first region [Masirah] in a period of 14
years.

Table 1 Regression analysis of temperature variable at levels (Dependent Variable: Rainfall)

Region Equation Constant (b0) value [1] R-Sq (The [2] Standard
square of the Deviation (S)
correlation)
Maseira R= 1367.1 - 31.9 T 1367.13 -31.9 64.7 % 27.2721
Sur R= 365.6 -6.3 T 365.6 -6.3 1.5 % 85.1152
Muscat R= 156.5 - 1.38 T 156.5 -1.38 0.1 % 88.3327
[1] R-Sq value calculated using MINITAB 14 program (approximate values)
[2] S value calculated using MINITAB 14 program (approximate values)

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 Dr. K. H. Jonathan, Dr. P. Suvarna Raju

Table 2 Rainfall and temperature indicators of Maseira region in a period of 14 years

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Top of Form 41 39 43 42 43 42 43 40 41 41 42 42 43 42
Temperature
(T) C
Top of Form 95 117 13 12 6 1 6 127 10 24 55 35 6 8
Rainfall
(R) mm

3.2. Regression Analysis of Maseira and the Rest Two Regions

Regression analysis of temperature and rainfall variables in Maseira region implies that, rise of 1C in
temperature resulted in 31.9mm decrease in rainfall amount in specific period of study. Since =
1367.13 has positive value, the mean of rainfall to be 1367.13mm when temperature equals 0. In this
case, since 0 is not within the range, the is insignificant. While is-31.9 has negative value, thus
the mean rainfall amount decrease would be 31.9mm for every 1Cincrease in temperature.
By using the same methods of evaluation, the results of Sur and Muscat regions are calculated and
described in the following sections table. Results in Tables 3-5 confirms the amount of rainfall change
due to increase or decrease of temperature in the three regions of the study. The highest degree of
temperature is assumed as reference value to ascertain the point at which rainfall becomes zero
amounts.

Table 3 Equation analysis of Maseira rainfall rate in standard temperature

Region Equation Rainfall Rate= (mm)
When T=41 C When T=42 C When T=43 C
Maseira R= 1367.1 - 31.9T 59.2 27.3 -4.6
However, at a temperature of 43 C in Maseira region, the regression analysis reveals -4.6 mm of
rainfall, indicating a negative relationship between temperature and rainfall variable in Maseira region
in Fig 2. The average temperature in Maseira region ranged between 39 C to 43 C in 1997 and 1998
respectively, that recorded the highest rainfall amount of 117 mm and 129 mm in 1997 and 2003
correspondingly at temperature of 40 C as presented in Table 6.
140
127
120 117

100
95
Rainfall (mm)

80

60
55

40
35
24
20
13 12 10
6 6 6 8
0 1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Years
Figure 2 Rainfall pattern of Maseira Region

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 Analysis of Rainfall Pattern and Temperature Variations in Three Regions of Sultanate of Oman

Table 4 Equation analysis of Sur rainfall rate in standard temperature

Region Equation Rainfall Rate= (mm)

When T=49 C When T=50 C When T=51 C
Sur R= 365.6 -6.3T 56.9 50.6 44.3
In Sur region, an increase of 1 C of temperature would reduce the rainfall amount by 6.3 mm. The
table 4imply prevailing lesser temperatures over the Sur region possibly enables more precipitation
contemplating the temperature variable remaining constant.

In Fig 3. The precipitation rates recorded under temperatures exceeding 58 C is insignificant

amount with only 0.2 mm which is marginal in comparison to Maseira and Muscat region.

120
56.9 50.6 Rainfall
100 44.3
38 Temperature
31.7
25.4
Temperature C

80 19.1
12.8
6.5
0.2
60
55 56 57 58
50 51 52 53 54
40 49

20

0
56.9 50.6 44.3 38 31.7 25.4 19.1 12.8 6.5 0.2
Rainfall (mm)

Figure 3 The relationship between temperature and rainfall in Sur region

Table 5 Analysis of Muscat equation and rainfall rate in a certain temperature

Region Equation Rainfall Rate= (mm)
When T=49 C When T=50 C When T=51 C
Muscat R= 156.5 - 1.38T 88.88 87.5 86.12
In Muscat region with increase in temperature the rainfall decreases slightly. Unlike the trend
observed in Maseira and Sur regions, an increase of 1 C in temperature in Muscat region reduces
precipitation rate by 1.38 mm, considerably less proportion than the other two designated regions
because Muscat receives more sunlight due to uniform topography, resulting in higher temperature
prevailing for longer periods coupled by increased emission of greenhouse gases from the adjoining
industrial areas. Whilst rainfall rates in Muscat region are uncommon unlike the precipitation patterns
observed in other two regions.
From the analysis, it reveals that in all the three study areas rainfall tends to decrease with increase
in temperatures, deducing that consistent declining of rainfall rate in Oman is a result of gradual
increase of slight temperatures during most part of the period.

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 Dr. K. H. Jonathan, Dr. P. Suvarna Raju

300

250

Rainfall (mm) 200

150

100

50

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year

Figure 4 The Mean of the Rainfall of 9 Different Regions of Oman

It is apparent from the study that high proportion of rainfall reduction occurred due to slight
increase of temperature (1C) and in the event of extreme changes in precipitation, the temperature
indicators showed slight alteration. Regression analysis on the variables revealed an inverse
relationship between temperature and precipitation and implies that the temperature of most regions
showed slight gradual increase since 1996 because of the constant decrease of rainfall rate as revealed
in shown in Fig. 4.The rainfall rate in Maseira recorded at temperatures reaching 43 C is 0-10 mm
and ceases beyond these temperatures. A surface temperature in conjunction with geographical
location and prospective wind direction passively contributes to the fluctuations in temperature and
subsequently influence rainfall pattern within a region.
In Maseira region, an increase of 1 C in temperature would reduce the rainfall amount by 31.9
mm approximately as shown in Table 3. While the rainfall rate from 1997 and 1998 have decreased
by 104 mm as referred in statistical data shown in table 6. In contrast, during the above period the
temperature increased by 4 C.

Table 6 Temperature and rainfall records of Maseira region during 1997-1998

Region TemperatureC Rainfall (mm)
1997 1998 1997 1998
Masirah 39 43 117 13

350

300 308

250 237
Rainfall (mm)

200

150
109
100 100
79 85
61
50 43 52 44
33 29
18 17
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Figure 5 Rainfall pattern in Muscat region

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 Analysis of Rainfall Pattern and Temperature Variations in Three Regions of Sultanate of Oman

In Muscat region, the rainfall rate decreased slightly in a period of 14 years from 1996 to 2009,
with recorded low rate during 1999 to 2006 and sudden increase in 2007 and declined thereafter as
shown in shown in Fig 5. In the year 2007, Muscat region received the highest rainfall amount because
of cyclone Gonu that has impacted most part of the Oman coast.

4. CONCLUSION
From the analysis of the three regions, the rainfall rate and pattern during the study period are
influenced by the ambient temperatures and intermittent fluctuations would affect in changes in the
rainfall rate. The net rainfall amount decreased in Muscat region is less compared to Maseira and Sur
region with increase in temperature, while there is significant decrease in rainfall rate with temperature
increase in the latter two locations. Topography, absence of major mountain ranges, prevalence of
industrial zones etc. in Muscat region, cause less fluctuations in temperature that are resulting in
insignificant reduction in rainfall amount.
In addition, increase use of fossil fuel and combustion from growing industrialization locally and
globally are affecting precipitation rates as greenhouse gases gradually increases surface temperatures
which this more prevalent in urbanized environments such as Muscat. Hence, further studies
extensively are required to establish correlation between surface temperatures and rainfall rate to
understand the contributing factors that govern the precipitation pattern across the sultanate.

5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors thank Mr. Affan K Al Akhzami, Managing Director and Chief Executive, International
College of Engineering, and Management (ICEM), Muscat for his encouragement and support. We are
indebted to the Dean Dr. Ali Al Lawati (ICEM) for his moral support and guidance at all the stages of
this work. Thanks to Dr. Angayar, Head of the Department for facilitating this work.

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