You are on page 1of 2

March 16, 2017

TO: Interested Parties


FR: Strategies 360 Research
RE: New Poll in CA49 Shows That Applegate and Issa Remain in a Close Race; Democrats Solidly
United Behind Applegate

A new poll among likely June 2018 primary voters in Californias 49th Congressional District clearly
demonstrates that Darrell Issa remains in a very vulnerable position, and that Doug Applegate is the candidate
best positioned to beat him. Following his insurgent, unpredicted campaign and extremely narrow loss in 2016,
Applegate remains in a virtual dead heat with Issa (39% and 43% of the vote, respectively). Issa is stuck in the
low 40s, with 57% of the electorate currently declining to support the incumbent. Meanwhile, no other potential
primary candidate cracks double digits.

Even Congressman Issas own internal polling validates his vulnerability and suggests that Issa is actually
increasingly susceptible to a challenge from Applegate. In the 2016 election, a mere 1,600 votes separated
Issa and Applegate, a race in which Applegate carried the San Diego County portion of the district by six
percentage points (53-47%). Issas poll now pegs Applegates lead in San Diego County at eight points, 48-
40%, easily enough to have put Applegate over the top.

This new survey highlights three central themes, supported by the data that follows:

1. Darrell Issa is a very endangered incumbent, and Doug Applegate can beat him in a rematch.
Applegate retains a coalition that is both broad and deep, reflecting his strong performance
and continued wide appeal to voters across the 49th district.

2. Applegate and Issa run far ahead of any other potential candidates now seeking political office
in the June primary, setting up a much-anticipated November rematch.

3. Democrats are united and enthusiastically supportive of Applegate. Other potential


Democratic candidates actually get more support from Republican voters than Democrats.

KEY FINDINGS
Applegate and Issa run far ahead of the pack. No other candidate is able to break out of the single
digits.

43
39

9 3 1 4

Issa Applegate Levin Kerr Other Undecided

Strategies 360 | www.strategies360.com


San Diego, CA Seattle, WA Denver, CO
2

Applegate is the rare candidate with the ability to put together the coalition to defeat Issa. In
addition to his overwhelming support from Democrats, Applegate and Issa are locked in a dead heat
for Independent voters. However, Applegate leads Issa 47-32% among the critical bloc of self-
identified moderates.

Democrats and other base groups are sticking with Applegate. Lawyer Mike Levin is unable to
get any traction among Applegates core constituencies. In fact, Levin has a net-negative favorability
rating among Democrats (10-14% favorable-unfavorable), compared to Applegates 68-16%
favorable-unfavorable rating among Democratic voters.

o Among Democrats, Applegate leads Levin 73-5%.


o Among liberals, Applegate leads Levin 70-15%.
o Among Democratic women, Applegate leads Levin 61-5%.
o Among people with a favorable impression of Bernie Sanders, Applegate leads Levin 63-10%.

Even where Levin should have natural advantages, Applegate defeats him handily, including
in Orange County. In Levins own backyard in Orange County, which makes up only a quarter of the
electorate, Applegate leads Levin 30-13%. In San Diego County, where most of the voters are,
Applegate leads 43-8%.

o Even among the people who identify Levin, Applegate beats him 41-15%.

Mike Levins support comes from Republicans, Independents, and Trump supporters.

o By partisanship, Levin gets 18% of the Independent vote, 7% of the Republican vote, and just
5% of the Democratic vote. Put another way, only 18% of Levins supporters are Democrats.
o One of the only groups among whom Levin outpaces Applegate is voters who approve of
Donald Trump. Among these Trump supporters, Levin leads Applegate 7-6%. Among
voters who disapprove of Trump, Applegate leads Levin 75-12%.

ABOUT THE POLL


On behalf of the Doug Applegate for Congress campaign, Strategies 360 conducted this survey among
405 likely June 2018 voters in Californias 49th Congressional District. The survey was conducted via
interactive voice response on March 13th and 14th, 2017. The margin of error for a survey of 405
interviews is 4.9% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error is higher for subsamples. Other
sources of error not accounted for by the stated statistical margin of error include, but are not limited to,
question wording, question order, coverage bias and response bias. The sample for this survey was
drawn randomly from a list of registered voters and stratified by supervisor district within each county in
the Congressional district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the actual contribution of these areas to the
total electorate. The sample reflects the demographic composition of the likely June 2018 electorate per
data from the U.S. Census Bureau, California Secretary of State, and several distinct voter files.

You might also like