Professional Documents
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A new poll among likely June 2018 primary voters in Californias 49th Congressional District clearly
demonstrates that Darrell Issa remains in a very vulnerable position, and that Doug Applegate is the candidate
best positioned to beat him. Following his insurgent, unpredicted campaign and extremely narrow loss in 2016,
Applegate remains in a virtual dead heat with Issa (39% and 43% of the vote, respectively). Issa is stuck in the
low 40s, with 57% of the electorate currently declining to support the incumbent. Meanwhile, no other potential
primary candidate cracks double digits.
Even Congressman Issas own internal polling validates his vulnerability and suggests that Issa is actually
increasingly susceptible to a challenge from Applegate. In the 2016 election, a mere 1,600 votes separated
Issa and Applegate, a race in which Applegate carried the San Diego County portion of the district by six
percentage points (53-47%). Issas poll now pegs Applegates lead in San Diego County at eight points, 48-
40%, easily enough to have put Applegate over the top.
This new survey highlights three central themes, supported by the data that follows:
1. Darrell Issa is a very endangered incumbent, and Doug Applegate can beat him in a rematch.
Applegate retains a coalition that is both broad and deep, reflecting his strong performance
and continued wide appeal to voters across the 49th district.
2. Applegate and Issa run far ahead of any other potential candidates now seeking political office
in the June primary, setting up a much-anticipated November rematch.
KEY FINDINGS
Applegate and Issa run far ahead of the pack. No other candidate is able to break out of the single
digits.
43
39
9 3 1 4
Applegate is the rare candidate with the ability to put together the coalition to defeat Issa. In
addition to his overwhelming support from Democrats, Applegate and Issa are locked in a dead heat
for Independent voters. However, Applegate leads Issa 47-32% among the critical bloc of self-
identified moderates.
Democrats and other base groups are sticking with Applegate. Lawyer Mike Levin is unable to
get any traction among Applegates core constituencies. In fact, Levin has a net-negative favorability
rating among Democrats (10-14% favorable-unfavorable), compared to Applegates 68-16%
favorable-unfavorable rating among Democratic voters.
Even where Levin should have natural advantages, Applegate defeats him handily, including
in Orange County. In Levins own backyard in Orange County, which makes up only a quarter of the
electorate, Applegate leads Levin 30-13%. In San Diego County, where most of the voters are,
Applegate leads 43-8%.
o Even among the people who identify Levin, Applegate beats him 41-15%.
Mike Levins support comes from Republicans, Independents, and Trump supporters.
o By partisanship, Levin gets 18% of the Independent vote, 7% of the Republican vote, and just
5% of the Democratic vote. Put another way, only 18% of Levins supporters are Democrats.
o One of the only groups among whom Levin outpaces Applegate is voters who approve of
Donald Trump. Among these Trump supporters, Levin leads Applegate 7-6%. Among
voters who disapprove of Trump, Applegate leads Levin 75-12%.