3/24/2017 Stats:OtherDiscreteDistributions

Stats:OtherDiscreteDistributions

MultinomialProbabilities
Amultinomialexperimentisanextendedbinomialprobability.Thedifferenceisthatinamultinomial
experiment,therearemorethantwopossibleoutcomes.However,therearestillafixednumberofindependent
trials,andtheprobabilityofeachoutcomemustremainconstantfromtrialtotrial.

Insteadofusingacombination,asinthecaseofthebinomialprobability,thenumberofwaystheoutcomescan
occurisdoneusingdistinguishablepermutations.

Anexampleherewillbemuchmoreusefulthanaformula.

TheprobabilitythatapersonwillpassaCollegeAlgebraclassis0.55,theprobabilitythatapersonwill
withdrawbeforetheclassiscompletedis0.40,andtheprobabilitythatapersonwillfailtheclassis0.05.Find
theprobabilitythatinaclassof30students,exactly16pass,12withdraw,and2fail.
Outcome x p(outcome)

Pass 16 0.55

Withdraw 12 0.40

Fail 2 0.05
Total 30 1.00

Theprobabilityisfoundusingthisformula:

30!
P=*0.55^16*0.40^12*0.05^2
(16!)(12!)(2!)

YoucandothisontheTI82.

PoissonProbabilities
NamedaftertheFrenchmathematicianSimeonPoisson,Poissonprobabilitiesareusefulwhentherearealarge
numberofindependenttrialswithasmallprobabilityofsuccessonasingletrialandthevariablesoccurovera
periodoftime.Itcanalsobeusedwhenadensityofitemsisdistributedoveragivenareaorvolume.

Lambdaintheformulaisthemeannumberofoccurrences.Ifyou'reapproximatingabinomialprobabilityusing
thePoisson,thenlambdaisthesameasmuorn*p.

Example:

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3/24/2017 Stats:OtherDiscreteDistributions

Ifthereare500customerspereighthourdayinacheckoutlane,whatistheprobabilitythattherewillbe
exactly3inlineduringanyfiveminuteperiod?

Theexpectedvalueduringanyonefiveminuteperiodwouldbe500/96=5.2083333.The96isbecausethere
are96fiveminuteperiodsineighthours.So,youexpectabout5.2customersin5minutesandwanttoknowthe
probabilityofgettingexactly3.

p(3;500/96)=e^(500/96)*(500/96)^3/3!=0.1288(approx)

HypergeometricProbabilities
Hypergeometricexperimentsoccurwhenthetrialsarenotindependentofeachotherandoccurduetosampling
withoutreplacementasinafivecardpokerhand.

Hypergeometricprobabilitiesinvolvethemultiplicationoftwocombinationstogetherandthendivisionbythe
totalnumberofcombinations.

Example:

Howmanywayscan3menand4womenbeselectedfromagroupof7menand10women?

Theansweris =7350/19448=0.3779(approx)

Notethatthesumofthenumbersinthenumeratorarethenumbersusedinthecombinationinthedenominator.

Thiscanbeextendedtomorethantwogroupsandcalledanextendedhypergeometricproblem.

YoucanusetheTI82tofindhypergeometricprobabilities.

TableofContents

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