Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BIG TWINS
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CONTENTS
Volume 191 Number 5579
21-27 MARCH 2017
NEWS
THIS WEEK
Hello MoM Gulf deepens Ready to fly
Is Seattle close Emirates plays Saab on track
to launching a down its falling for Gripen E
797 to plug profits, as Clark debut, with
middle of the confirms Dubai fighter taking
based heater.
BIG TWINS
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11 Bombardier waiting on CSeries leases
16 Trappier seeks balance from Dassault
1 2
Anthony Pecchi/Dassault
9 770015 371297
Image of
the week
Snapped on approach to
London Heathrow, this
colourful A320 is the fourth
of Brussels Airlines fleet to
bear a special livery as part
of its Belgian Icons series.
Named Amare, the Airbus
narrowbody was hand-
painted over a two-week
period and celebrates the
Tommorowland festival
James Mellon/FlightGlobal
weekly tablet edition:
flightglobal.com/
flight-international
5.4%
Last week, we asked: Are UK air shows safer post-Shoreham?
You said:
Flight Dashboard
Total votes: 544
European flights are getting more crowded; passenger loads
in February rose at twice the 2.7% increase in fleet capacity
$0
Health and safety
gone mad
41% 226 votes
12 Flight Dashboard
FlightGlobals premium news and data service delivers breaking air transport stories with
profiles, schedules, and fleet, financial and traffic information flightglobal.com/dashboard
flightglobal.com/commengines
CFM 2015 strip ad.indd 1 10/06/2015 13:06
4 | Flight International | 21-27 March 2017 flightglobal.com
Flight_CFM_25x180.indd 1 19/07/2012 17:51
COMMENT
Size matters
Boeings much-talked-about middle-of-the-market concept appears to be coalescing into a
real aircraft programme with a proper designation; it is time for Seattle to fill in the blanks
Jochen Tack/ImageBroker/REX/Shutterstock
tablished in 1956.
So what is it? We know it is a family of two widebody
aircraft sized to capture an estimated 2,000-3,000-unit
slice of the commercial aircraft market over the next two
decades. Although often referred to as a 757 replacement,
the market opportunity encompasses both the legacy
single-aisle and widebodies like the 767. It will probably
be able to accommodate up to about 220 passengers and Getting it spot on
fly between 4,500-6,000nm (8,330-11,100km).
The 797X could inherit a harvest of finally mature Pitches are likely to include 40,000lb (180kN)-thrust
technologies pioneered by the 787 a decade ago, includ- versions of CFM Internationals Leap core, Pratt &
ing a core computing system, as well as electric-powered Whitneys second-generation geared turbofan and the
cabin pressurisation and wing de-icing systems. Rolls-Royce Advance concept.
With so much technology available off the shelf,
With so much technology available Boeings biggest challenge with the 797X is crafting the
marketing strategy.
off the shelf, Boeings challenge It is the Goldilocks conundrum: a widebody aircraft
sized too large is undercut by the Airbus A330-800neo,
will be the marketing strategy but too small is no competition for the A321neoLR.
Boeing has to get the 797X just right an unusually
small target to hit.
It will also likely benefit from a new composite wing Still, so much about the 797X is speculation or leaks
centre that Boeing has erected in Everett, Washington, from informed customers. It is time now for Boeing to
to support the 777X, with the target of producing more lead the public discussion about the project.
efficient carbonfibre structures for the same price as The first half of the year will naturally belong to the
their metallic equivalents. public roll-out of the 737 Max 10X, with an official
Perhaps breaking from a trend set by the exclusively launch at the Paris air show.
powered 737 Max and 777X, the 797X also stands to But details about the 797X must soon follow start-
benefit from a three-way competition to provide up to ing with the confirmation of the programmes name.
two engine options to airlines. See This Week P7
Not a blip
A s IATA stresses a continuing falling accident rate in
its annual review of commercial airline safety, the
circumstances of the Dana Air crash in Lagos serve to
transport, any apparent improvement in the continents
safety statistics carries a hefty disclaimer. If Nigeria, its
richest economy, can still fall desperately short in the
remind that global progress is far from a uniform affair. mainline jet transport sector, the prognosis for other na-
Nigerian investigators newly disclosed narrative de- tions cannot be good. Only 22 African states reached at
tailing the loss of the MD-83 almost amounts to a roll- least 60% compliance with ICAO standards last year.
call of the sort of practices that might tempt IATAs IATA wants its safety auditing schemes required
safety teams to bang their collective heads despairingly for membership to become fundamental to Africa,
against the walls of its Geneva headquarters. through being part of an airlines certification process.
The culmination of sloppy internal processes, tech- Such a proposal can only be beneficial. Never mind
nical failure, clumsy decision-making and poor air- fine-tuning, much coarse-tuning is still necessary be-
Stay up to date with the latest
news and analysis from the manship, the Dana Air accidents most astonishing as- fore spurious bright blips in Africas air safety record
commercial aerospace sector: pect is probably that it did not happen sooner. settle into a real and encouraging long-term trend.
flightglobal.com/dashboard With such crude failures still evident in African air See Air Transport P12
BRIEFING
EASA LOOKS AT EN ROUTE WAKE-VORTEX ISSUES
SAFETY The European Aviation Safety Agency is drawing up a
bulletin for publication in April centred on mitigating risks of en
route wake-vortex encounters. The step is not directly related
to a serious upset event in January involving a German business
jet after a suspected but so-far unproven brush with wake
turbulence, possibly from an Airbus A380 in cruise. EASA
stresses that the scheme is not specific to the superjumbo.
Leonardo
Rogozin as vice-president of its new transport aircraft arm. The
unit will deal with aircraft programmes including the Ilyushin Proposed multi-task aircraft would replace C-27J tactical airlifter
Il-76 heavy freighter and the Il-112 light- and medium-haul tur-
PROGRAMME DAN THISDELL MILAN
boprop. It will bring together specific operations at plants in-
cluding Voronezh-based VASO and Ulyanovsk-based Aviastar,
as well as the Myasishchev design bureau. Leonardo insistent
ALLIGATORS ON TARGET FOR EGYPT
ROTORCRAFT Egypt remains on schedule to receive the first
of its 46 Kamov Ka-52 attack helicopters later this year, accord-
ing to Russian Helicopters parent company Rostec. Dating from
on large turboprop
an order revealed in December 2015, the Alligators will operate Italian airframer determined to develop dual-use 100-seat
from a pair of French-built Mistral-class amphibious assault model, with or without its ATR joint-venture partner Airbus
ships acquired by the Egyptian navy.
AirTeamImages
for proposed type to
the technologies available to
replace its fleet of 757s
drive improved performance and
economics, development costs
and pricing a vital issue consid- bviously new technology but
o with 225-260 seats and a range of Further fuel and efficiency
ering the time required for Boeing with the size and range, he says. 4,800-5,200nm (8,890-9,630km). gains would likely come from ex-
to recover its development Both Delta and United, as well We continue to study what tensive use of composite material
spending on the 787 and the as their peer American Airlines, that airplane would look like, in the wings and fuselage, with
likely competitive response from operate large fleets of 757s and says Boeing. Were having very Boeing able to leverage expertise
Airbus or other manufacturers. 767s that they use for transatlan- productive conversations with gained on the 787 programme.
All these questions carry un- tic and longer domestic missions. our customers and firming up op-
certainty, and while one or two Together, the three carriers oper- portunities there. MARKET FORECAST
airlines may profess to require an ate 258 757-200s and -300s, and Aengus Kelly, chief executive In 2016, Boeing forecast a total
aircraft that fits this segment of 164 767-300ERs and -400ERs, of AerCap, says Boeing needs to market of 4,000-5,000 aircraft for
the market, the uncertainty seems Flight Fleets Analyzer shows. ensure that the potential aircraft a MoM-sized design, but noted
sufficient to suggest an imminent meets the needs of the wider mar- that the A321neo and A330neo
launch would be extremely chal- TWIN PEEKS ket not just those of US carriers. would take a portion of this, leav-
lenging, says Morris. All three US carriers have largely Thats the challenge; they ing a demand for roughly 2,000-
His comments come after the replaced their domestic 757s and have to get it right how do you 3,000 units.
recent ISTAT Americas confer- 767s with Airbus A321s and fix that equation of meeting the Airbus, while agreeing that
ence in San Diego, where several 737-900ERs. Securing deals from mission capability of a global Boeing needs a clean-sheet air-
US airlines and lessors expressed Delta and United, both of which customer base, not just three air- craft in the middle-of-the-market
interest in the MoM proposal. are already significant Boeing op- lines in North America? he says. segment, thinks a twin-aisle air-
They see it as an ideal replace- erators, would be a major fillip It has to have global capability. craft is the wrong answer.
ment for large fleets of 757 and for the programme in its early Engine selection will be key. Light [twin-aisles] will never
767 aircraft in the 200-260-seat stages and provide Seattle with a Boeing appears ready to offer a compete with a good single-aisle
segment. It has a lot of merit and, base of orders on which to build. choice of powerplants on the stretched airplane, says John
if they decide to launch it, wed be The specifications of the po- MoM development, likely in the Leahy, Airbus chief operating of-
very interested in it, says An- tential Boeing MoM or in the 40,000-45,000lb-thrust (180- ficer for customers, noting the
drew Levy, chief financial officer words of Air Lease Corp execu- 200kN) range. Potential power- relative failure of both the A310
of Chicago-based United Airlines. tive chairman Steven Udvar-Ha- plants include a scaled-up ver- and 767-200. Aerodynamically
Daniel Pietrzak, managing di- zy: just call it a 797 are begin- sion of the CFM International and physically, the widebody
rector of fleet management at ning to take shape, airlines and Leap the most powerful current will just have more weight and
Delta Air Lines, echoes Levys lessors indicated at ISTAT. variant is rated at 32,160lb-thrust more drag for the loads that
comments and adds: Look at it The twin-aisle aircraft a con- a second-generation Pratt & youre carrying.
as a 757-300 capacity mission to figuration Levy confirms for the Whitney geared turbofan and Additional reporting by
something like a 767-200 first time will have two variants Rolls-Royces Advance concept. Dominic Perry in London
Lockheed Martin
Edwards AFB, California and and business development,
NAS Patuxent River, Maryland, notes: A real firing allows the
with the infrared-guided AS- other F-35A and B users to now
RAAM being integrated with the have a choice. Company hopes test firing will drive sales of its short-range missile
Lufthansa pilots
near resolution
on labour terms with nanotube-based heater
L ufthansa has reached a tenta-
tive agreement with the
Electrothermal protection system can be integrated into composite or metallic structures
term, and pilots are in line for an systems with carbon nanotube
additional one-off payment. At heater arrays for a series of dem-
least 325 aircraft are to be oper- onstrations over the next two
ated under the new agreement years; certification and introduc-
across the three business units by tion into service could follow one
2022, says Lufthansa. Thinner wings optimised for laminar flow require different solutions or two years later.
United Airlines
the production bottleneck was Focus performance improve-
being addressed by the addition ment initiative to those facilities
of extra volume at the facility, as Bottleneck could affect Polaris retrofit timetable for United Airlines meant Cwmbran slipped off the
well as significant load transfer radar, Zarrouati acknowledges.
to other Zodiac sites. deliveries to Airbus later this and resulted in late deliveries I have to admit that the UK
Cwmbran assembles seats for year, Doutriaux adds. in the half-year ended 31 Decem- had been a little bit out of our
long-haul Boeing types including The problems at the UK opera- ber. A return to normal opera- eyes because it was presumably
the 767 and 777, and will begin tion began in late 2016, he says, tions is due by the end of the first going better there, he says.
United Airlines, a customer of
Cwmbran, has again expressed
TAKEOVER DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON its dissatisfaction with Zodiac,
Safran insists that acquisition of troubled peer is not ill-starred which is responsible for the Pola-
ris business-class seats to be
French aerospace group Safran Zodiac attributes this to the also encountered problems. retrofitted into the carriers 767s
has reiterated its confidence that ramping-up of new aircraft pro- Safran appears undeterred by and 777-200s.
it can restore profitability at grammes which are gradually re- the weak performance, stressing Were not happy. Period,
Zodiac Aerospace after the latter placing older types. that it still has a strategic interest said United chief executive Oscar
revealed a difficult first half. It notes that the Airbus A350 in Zodiacs acquisition. Munoz, speaking at a financial
Organic sales at Zodiacs air- programme resulted in overrun It says it confirms its confi- conference on 15 March. United
craft interiors businesses com- costs for the cabin division in the dence in its ability to restore the aims to retrofit its first 777-200
prising its seats and cabin first half, but expects an improve- operating profitability of those with Polaris in early 2018.
divisions were down by about ment in this performance in the parts of Zodiac which are cur- Additional reporting by Edward
4.5% to 1.4 billion ($1.5 billion). second half. Its seat operation has rently in difficulty. Russell in Washington DC
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AirTeamImages
The initial focus has been on
establishing the credibility of the
CSeries on the market with lead- Launch airline for the CS100, Swiss, now has six examples of the PW1500G-powered twinjet in operation
ing airline operators, and this has
been achieved with the likes of small handful of those aircraft allocated to airline customers
Swiss, Air Baltic, Korean Air, have been placed so far.
I have got more rather than to operating lessors,
Delta Air Lines and Air Canada, Chief executive John Plueger fingers than the which explains why there have
says Colin Bole, Bombardiers says ALC has seen little demand number of those been limited operating lessor
senior vice-president of commer- for either type to date. Suffice to placements at this early stage in
cial aircraft. say, if we were getting a lot of re- types of aircraft that the programme.
Those airlines have initially quests for the E2, a lot of requests have been placed We certainly feel good about
put emphasis on their own direct for the CSeries we would be Steven Udvar-Hazy our current operating lease con-
order with the OEM in order to acting upon them, hesays. Executive chairman, Air Lease tent, and while we have discus-
establish a critical sub-fleet size However, he concedes that Corporation sions with most of the worlds
and establish a direct contractual ALC is not known for aircraft in major operating lessors, our
relationship with the OEM, he the size category occupied by the near-term focus will remain on
adds. It could be possible that 100-150-seat CSeries: between Australias Macquarie AirFinance, diversification of our airline cus-
they would want to expand their 2010 and 2014, the company 20 CS100s/300s ordered by Dub- tomer base.
CSeries fleet at a later stage placed several orders for E-Jets lin-based Lease Corporation Inter- He adds that Bombardier will
through an operating lessor or and ATR turboprops, but has national and another 20 CS300s look to expand leasing sales
by entering into sale and lease- since shifted its portfolio almost ordered by Moscow-based Ily- when the time is right.
back agreements. exclusively to large Airbus and ushin Finance Company (IFC). We are convinced that the
Boeing aircraft. Few of those aircraft, however, CSeries will prove to be a highly
KEEPING WATCH The fact that we are not get- have yet been placed, and IFC has attractive alternative investment
Boles defence of the programme ting a lot of those requests already reduced its CSeries count for lessors, Bole says.
comes in the wake of comments Were not known for being in that from 32 in its original order. Chris Seymour, head of market
by executives at Los Angeles- space, Plueger says. analysis at Flight Ascend Consul-
based Air Lease Corporation Bombardier has outstanding RUSSIAN REVERSAL tancy, believes the CSeries will
(ALC), one of the worlds top les- orders for another 353 aircraft, of That may be related to political eventually prove popular in the
sors. Speaking on a late February which nearly 280 almost 79% considerations, with relations be- leasing market. Lessors are wait-
earnings call, ALC executive are from airlines and their affili- tween the West and Russia hav- ing to see proven liquidity of the
chairman Steven Udvar-Hazy ates, or VIP operators, according ing soured since the deal was aircraft, he says. It is still early
known as the godfather of leasing to the companys order data. signed. In addition, United Air- days in the in-service life for
said he was watching very The most notable airline or- craft, a major shareholder in IFC, CSeries and it has yet to be deliv-
carefully those lessors which ders have included Air Baltics has also changed its top leader- ered to its two largest customers,
had already ordered both the deal for 20 CS300s, Air Canadas ship, with current executives Delta and Air Canada.
CSeries and Embraer E-Jet E2s. for 45 CS300s, Delta Air Lines much less Western-focused than Three lessors already have
In fact, I have got more fingers for 75 CS100s and a mix of 30 their predecessors. over 20% of the backlog, with
than the number of those types of CS100s and CS300s for Swiss. Nonetheless, Bombardier re- others holding [tentative] com-
aircraft that have been placed by Commitments from lessors, mains unworried. Bole says: mitments, so we expect a leasing
lessors that ordered the CSeries with deliveries starting in 2018, Given our industrial ramp-up, market to develop as the operator
or the E2, he says. Only a very include 40 CS300s ordered by all our early deliveries have been base builds.
KeystoneUSA-ZUMA/REX/Shutterstock
But the Nigerian Accident In-
vestigation Bureau (NAIB) inquiry
found that the MD-83 (5N-RAM)
did not return to Abuja, and over-
flew several alternate airports in-
cluding Akure and Ibadan
where an emergency landing Aircraft came down in a densely-populated area north of airport after failure of both JT8D powerplants
could have been made.
At one time the pilot asserted Audio spectrum analysis by US Subsequently the problem be- The radar controller instructed
that the aircraft could not quit on investigators and P&W has proven came compounded as thrust was the flight to contact Lagos tower,
them, says the inquiry into the 3 inconclusive, says the inquiry. required to continue the final ap- but the crew was unable to select
June 2012 crash. At another time, No definitive outcome was estab- proach, says the inquiry, point- the tower frequency.
the captain said declaring an lished. It states that, while the ing out that there was no evidence Investigators state that the crew
emergency would make [the Nige- problem started with the left-hand of an attempt to follow an engine- discussed switching to runway
rian Civil Aviation Authority] engine, no flame-out was estab- out descent profile. The landing- 18L, offset further to the north,
come after them. The delay to de- lished. gear, it adds, was deployed after and the captain instructed a re-
clare an emergency due to unex- an audio alert from the ground- traction of flaps and landing-gear.
plained fear of the regulatory body INCREASING CONCERN proximity warning system. After expressing concern about a
compounded their problems. While the crew initially did not The aircraft increased its rate possible stall, he reiterated that he
Both JT8D engines failed to de- express concern about the condi- of descent as it passed 5,000ft had lost everything and lost
liver commanded thrust during tion in the engine, they became some 15nm (28km) from Lagos. both engines, and called for vari-
final approach to Lagos and the increasingly worried as the About 1min later the first officer ous items including relight,
aircraft crashed with the loss of all flight progressed, says the in- asked whether both engines had ignition override and just any-
153 occupants, and six people on quiry. But the crew neither de- come up, to which the captain thing which might help in the
the ground. clared an emergency nor called responded: Negative. final moments of the flight.
No flight-data recorder infor- for the abnormal checklist to di- Both engines at this point were
mation was available to the NAIB agnose the problem. failing to deliver the commanded MANUAL CONTROL
and the inquiry had to rely heavi- Before the approach, the crew thrust, says the inquiry, and the Attempts to maintain altitude
ly on the cockpit-voice recorder. confirmed there was no throttle first officer asked the captain with manual control were unsuc-
The final inquiry report con- response from the left engine, and whether he should declare an cessful, and automated warnings
tains a confusing record of the ac- the captain took over the controls. emergency. The crew agreed to a continued until impact in a dense-
cident sequence, particularly re- The crew opted for an approach to distress call, transmitting: Dual ly-populated area 4.3nm north of
garding the timing of events. But it Lagoss runway 18R but still did engine failure, negative response the airport, on the approach cen-
states that the cockpit-voice re- not transmit any distress call. from throttles. treline for runway 18R.
corder captured some 30min of With confirmation of throttle Though there was loss in en- Investigators state that, while
the flight and, at the point the re- response from the right engine, gine power, there was no evi- the engine power loss directly led
cording started, some 16min after the anti-ice, ignition and bleed air dence of engine flame-out since to the crash, the crews inappro-
the jet was airborne, the pilots were switched off. The crew re- the crew were able to select flaps, priate omission of checklist use
were already discussing an abnor- ceived vectors from the radar lower and retract the landing- and inability to appreciate the
mal condition regarding the cor- controller and started configuring gear as evident on the [cockpit- severity of the problem contrib-
relation between thrust setting the MD-83 for landing, by de- voice recorder] transcript, says uted to the failure to divert to an
and the engine power indication. ploying the flaps. the inquiry. alternate airport.
Airbus delivery
delays hit Qatar
for multiple financial failings Airways growth
National audit body says carrier understated losses and sold widebodies too cheaply
D elays to the Airbus A320neo
and A350 programmes have
AirTeamImages
er significantly understated the receive any narrowbodies due to
scale of its losses. the still-ongoing issues.
It calculates that the company Airline received less than anticipated from 787 delay compensation The carrier has 15 A350s in
generated a loss of Rs14.5 billion service and 66 on order, Flight
($218 million) in 2012-2013, The CAG also criticises the car- pensation of $710 million from Fleets Analyzer shows, along
Rs29.6billion in 2013-2014 and rier for the sale of five Boeing Boeing, but instead Air India set- with 46 A320neo-family jets,
Rs19.9 billion in 2014-2015. 777-200LRs to Etihad Airways
tled for $328million, says the re- plus 30 options.
Under the plan, Air India was between 2013 and 2015, at a sig- port. A further claim for $50 mil- Deliveries of those A320neo-
expected to generate positive earn- nificantly lower price than the lion over the four-month-long family aircraft should begin in
ings before interest, tax, deprecia- indicative market price of $86- grounding of its Dreamliner fleet 2018, says Al Baker. We hope to
tion and amortisation from 2012 $92 million per aircraft. in 2013 due to issues with the air- get our Neos A321neos from
onwards, and move to a cash sur- Late deliveries of the carriers crafts lithium-ion batteries, was next year, he says.
plus from 2017. 787-8s should have yielded com- settled for $27.4 million. Qatar Airways had been due to
become the launch operator of
the A320neo but problems with
DEVELOPMENT STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC the Pratt & Whitney PW1100G
KeystoneUSA-ZUMA/REX/Shutterstock
Investigators say flightcrew could not have countered loss
of control after uncontained engine failure damaged flaps
DELIVERY
A330 starts Irans widebody refleet
Iran Air has taken delivery of its first Airbus A330-200 (EP-IJA), a
three-year-old ex-Avianca Brazil airframe fitted with Rolls-Royce
Trent 700 engines. Although Airbus delivered the aircraft to
Avianca Brazil in 2014, it was then put into storage. Airbus con-
firms that the A330 has been transferred to Iran Air at the airfram-
ers Toulouse headquarters. Iran Air has directly ordered eight
A330-200s and 28 A330-900s. But it is also taking a pair of unused
A330s from third parties. These 38 A330s are part of a broader or-
der for 100 Airbus aircraft from the carrier.
Airbus
AirTeamImages
fects have been a significant fac-
tor. Appreciation of the US dollar
has itself created pressure for the Capacity growth will be slowed this year but available seat kilometres are to be increased by around 7-8%
Dubai-based carrier, and also trig-
gered secondary effects as weak Emirates took an 18% whack in Airline communities are re- nature and that he would rather
currencies in other markets de- the summer in that country, acting to, basically, much lower reshape the airline.
clined versus the US currency. which Clark describes as a high- yield, is how Clark sums up the He declines to provide detail
Clark notes that markets in production market. overall development. We are try- on the restructuring efforts. But he
Emirates home region such as When US President Donald ing to understand better what asserts that Emirates still has one
Iraq, Libya and Syria have dis- Trump signed an executive order has been going on [and] why it of the lowest unit costs among
appeared as a result of ongoing in January temporarily banning has been going on. long-haul operators, and that any
conflicts. The Middle East is a citizens of seven majority-Mus- I honestly believe that the na- changes will be made in a clini-
different place now to when we lim countries from entering the ture of demand in regional, do- cal and professionalmanner.
started to fly in 1985, he says. USA, Emirates rate of ticket sales mestic and long-haul is going to There has been speculation re-
In addition, wider geopolitical, growth fell by more than a third change over time, and therefore cently about the health of the
industrial and socioeconomic de- versus previous years, Clark adds. we have to adapt and adjust our Gulfs big three and the regions
velopments have made the over- He says efforts by European business model accordingly. market, and Clark acknowledges
all business environment less airlines to establish low-cost, Clark does not rule out job cuts that there is a degree of flatlining
certain. Following the UKs June long-haul subsidiaries are also as part of efficiency efforts. But he by Middle Eastern airlines. But he
2016 decision to exit the EU, having an effect on Emirates. says redundancies are not in our insists capacity is still being in-
creased and sees no danger of
overcapacity in the long term.
FLEET Where Emirates has in previ-
Fuel-efficient narrowbodies could have wider appeal, says Clark ous years boosted capacity by as
much as 20%, its available seat-
A devotee of the widebody, lished during the late 1980s and in performance, aerodynamics kilometres will be increased this
Emirates may in the future deploy early 1990s at a time when ac- and propulsion that have made year by 7-8%.
narrowbody types, the airlines cess to several markets within the narrowbody types far more prof- Clark reflects that airlines in
president Tim Clark indicates. Middle East was denied and the itable than their predecessors. the past had to respond to one or
Clark says the fuel efficiency airline needed to build up a net- Better access to nearby mar- two critical events per year, such
gains realised by the re-engined work by looking further afield. kets and new airline competitors as economic slowdowns in indi-
Airbus A320neo and Boeing For the time being, I cant that operate with narrowbodies vidual markets or flying bans due
737Max families could spur their see that [widebody-based could result in Emirates deploying to volcanic ash clouds, for exam-
deployment by the airline on operation] changing, Clark says. re-engined narrowbodies too, ple. [Now] the pace of change is
long-haul routes traditionally op- But he adds: Maybe others heconcedes. accelerating and is quite destabi-
erated withwidebodies. coming behind me may take a I would never say never, he lising, he says. The world is in
He says Emirates long-haul- differentview. says. The dynamic is changing a high degree of volatility for all
based business model was estab- He notes enormous changes even in the Middle East. sorts ofreasons.
Anthony Pecchi/Dassault
cent run of export sales success,
netting a 36-unit order from India
to add to previous commitments
from Egypt and Qatar, while Fal-
con orders and deliveries contin- Slow order intake for Falcon family in recent years has overshadowed military sales achievements
ued to struggle.
In fact, Dassault handed over be slow, with any improvement grate Rafale fuselages, among [They] should buy a Europe-
11 fewer business aircraft than arriving little by little; 2018 is other roles. an aircraft because its good for
the 60 it forecast at the beginning likely to be a better year, he says. Design and engineering func- Europe. It is not just about opera-
of 2016, a figure that was revised In the interim, the softer mar- tions will remain at its St Cloud tional capabilities but jobs and
down to 50 at the half-year point. ket is causing all its participants headquarters to the west of Paris, technologies and many things
It took in 21 net orders, which in- to cut prices to win orders. Trap- but Trappier wants its engineers besides, he says. I am not con-
cluded 12 cancellations for its pier points out that as its two big- to spend more time at its Bor- vinced that when a European
over-running Falcon 5X pro- gest rivals Bombardier and deaux-Mrignac final assembly country buys a US aircraft it is
gramme. Gulfstream are based in North line or Istres flight-test facility. the right thing.
The delay to the 5X, driven en- America, the lower employment Culturally I want to see our Nonetheless, Trappier is bull-
tirely by problems with its Safran and social costs in those coun- teams coming closer to the air- ish on the possibility of further
Silvercrest engines, is concerning tries compared with France offer planes, he says. I want to have increasing the Rafales 110-strong
in its own right, but more worry- those companies greater flexibili- people working together with backlog. France alone needs at
ing is the continued weakness in ty to trim prices for new jets; ag- more co-operation in the places least 45 additional fighters talks
the business jet market, particu- gressive competition, he calls it. where the planes come from. are already under way covering
larly at the top end where Das- To address that cost discrepan- this tranche five acquisition but
saults range sits. cy both in the short and long EUROPE FIRST the country may eventually re-
That can be seen in its forecast term Dassault is streamlining its In addition, Trappier is hopeful quire more like 100.
for 2017: it expects to deliver 45 manufacturing operation. that he can convince military If export campaigns also come
Falcons, down on both 2016s That does not mean, insists customers of the folly, in his off, then the programme could be
total of 49 and the 55 handed Trappier, that it is closing sub- view, of joining the clamour for looking at hundreds of additional
over in 2015. assembly factories or dramati- the Lockheed Martin F-35. He orders, although he cautions it
cally reducing headcount, sim- points out that the development may be zero or 400.
DOWNWARD TREND ply that we wish to specialise costs for the Joint Strike Fighter For me it is not a problem. My
In addition, over the past two our plants, to dedicate them to are somewhere in excess of $80 concern is to have the right pro-
years its business jet backlog has [specific] purposes. billion, whereas in comparison duction line adaptability to de-
shrunk from 91 at the end of 2015 They are historically impor- the Rafale cost just $9.5 billion. liver when the order comes.
to 63 as of 31 December 2016. tant sites, but we want to special- It is particularly scandalous, Production is forecast to con-
Turnover and net profit have ise them, he says. he says, that in Europe the pref- tinue until 2025 with the current
followed this downward trend For example, its facility in Sec- erence is American when na- workload, and Trappier expects
too: falling to 3.58 billion ($3.81 lin, near Lille in the northeast of tions come to acquire new fight- the Rafale to continue in opera-
billion) and 384 million, respec- France, will now focus on mak- ers. Countries make these tion for at least another 35-45
tively, from figures of 4.17 billion ing machined metal parts for decisions despite the additional years beyond that.
and 482 million a year earlier. both civil and military jets, while expense and without considering Or, as the 57-year-old chief ex-
Trappier predicts an upturn in its factory in the northern Paris the economic and industrial ben- ecutive assesses it: I cannot see
the business jet market at some suburb of Argenteuil will build efits of buying European-built air- the end of Rafale service in my
point although he thinks it will front fuselage sections and inte- craft, he says. horizon.
Per Kustvik/Saab
fore the end of the second quarter, We can make a change within
head of Gripen Jerker Ahlqvist days something that previously
says: So far, everything is going could take weeks or months. This
according to plan. Deliveries of gives us confidence that the pro- Latest iteration of type commenced taxi tests at Linkping last year
the GE Aviation F414-powered jet gramme will meet its schedule
will start in 2019 for the Swedish and milestones. tential acquisitions, and it earlier eyeing a navy requirement with
air force, followed by aircraft for Richard Smith, head of Gripen this month responded to a its proposed Gripen Maritime.
export customer Brazil. marketing and sales, says the Bulgarian request for proposals. Smith says it is also exploring
Low-speed taxi tests with the company is increasing its efforts Saab has also provided early opportunities in Belgium, Cana-
Gripen E commenced at Saabs to sell both the C/D and E/F mod- information to India linked to a da, Colombia, Finland, Indone-
Linkping production site late last els. Discussions continue with potential requirement for 150 sia, Malaysia and Switzerland.
year, and Ahlqvist says it is vali- Botswana and Slovakia over po- single-engined fighters, and is The market looks optimistic,
he says, adding: our target is a
contract every year. The compa-
PROPOSAL ALEXANDER MLADENOV SOFIA ny has previously said it could
Bulgarias defence ministry weighs bids to modernise air force deliver Gripen C/Ds within 18
months of receiving an order.
Bulgarias defence ministry said on the USA and Portugal, jointly offer- of air-to-air and air-to-surface Meanwhile, Saab has started
13 March that it had opened three ing ex-US Air Force Lockheed weapons, logistics support and updating the Czech Republics
proposals to equip the nations air Martin F-16A/Bs with a mid-life personnel training. Deliveries are Gripen C/Ds with the latest MS20-
force with modern fighters. update by Ogma; and an Italian required before 2020. standard software, which entered
Sofia made a request for pro- bid using second-hand Tranche A second phase, to run be- operational use in S weden last
posals in December 2016, seeking 1-standard Eurofighter Typhoons. tween 2022 and 2023, is expected year. Hungary has contracted it to
an initial eight aircraft via a govern- The defence ministry plans to to lead to the acquisition of make the same modification to its
ment-to-government agreement. invest 767 million ($823 million) another eight aircraft of the same fleet, and Ahlqvist says it is also in
Responses came from Sweden in the aircraft and ground support type to replace the air forces cur- early dialogue with South Africa
for n
ew-build Saab Gripen C/Ds; equipment, plus a small package rent 15 RAC MiG-29 fighters. and Thailand.
Leonardo believes
T-100 bid will pass
Buy America test
DRS subsidiary will announce proposed US final assembly
site soon for M-346-derived trainer as T-X battle heats up
BAE Systems
During that meeting, between ject partners the opportunity to
then UK Prime Minister David show what we could do togeth-
Cameron and French President First prototype will fly around 2023 if UK furthers its involvement er; a first flight would take place
Franois Hollande, 1.54 billion in about 2023, he says.
($1.87 billion) was committed to as the company delivered its re- it offers the chance of a partner- Engine manufacturers Safran
the second stage of the project. sults for 2016, Dassault chief ex- ship with one of its military and Rolls-Royce and electronics
ecutive ric Trappier said the equals in the region. suppliers Thales and Leonardo
MOVING APART risk of the project foundering In addition, Trappier points to are also involved in the effort.
However, with Cameron gone due to a lack of political will is the determination of the partner
and London poised to trigger the higher than before, but he notes companies to make FCAS a suc- NEURON RETURNS
process to exit the EU, relations that it also presents an opportu- cess. BAE and Dassault really Meanwhile, test flights of the
between the countries have wors- nity for both sides. want this to go ahead, he says. Neuron UCAV demonstrator air-
ened, leading to fears over the fu- The UK can show it does not There is a wish and a will for craft will continue in 2017. De-
ture of the venture. want to be too isolated from the this to happen. If industry pushes veloped as part of a six-nation
Speaking in Paris on 8 March rest of Europe while, for France, and politicians agree that it is a consortium of European nations
matter outside of Brexit concerns and their respective industrial
then it may continue. champions, led by Dassault, the
Trappier says the simple and single flying prototype performed
bad alternative is that the UK trials last year alongside the
abandons its co-operation with French navys aircraft carrier
Europe and instead they will go Charles de Gaulle.
100% with the US. Evaluations this year, contracted
France could pursue the pro- by Frances DGA defence procure-
ject on its own, but this would be ment agency, will focus on the
more difficult due to budgetary Neurons stealth efficiency after a
pressures, he says. few years of flight time and how it
Under the Amiens agreement, performs against modern air de-
the current study phase was due fence systems, Trappier says.
to conclude in late 2016, but The test effort will stop only
Trappier says this has been ex- when future programmes arrive,
Dassault
w w w. f l i g h t g l o b a l . c o m / w a f
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Embraer predicts a
gradual rise in
BUSINESS AVIATION
executive jet margins
Business Aviation P22
Dassault demands
compensation for
delayed Silvercrest
French airframer begins negotiations with Safran following
three-year service-entry postponement for 5X programme
Dassault
D assault has begun talks with
Safran over compensation
payments for delays to its Falcon
which was rolled out in June
2015 recorded in its 2016 order
and delivery totals.
Net orders were hit by 12 cancellations for ultra-wide twinjet in 2016
5X caused by the late-running ric Trappier, Dassaults chief about this contract performance, track to begin deliveries of its
Silvercrest engine programme. executive, says it has started ne- Trappier said at a Paris results competing G500 this year.
In early 2016 the French air- gotiations with Safran about re- briefing on 8 March. The first strong request we
framer announced a near three- questing a certain level of com- Under Safrans revised sched- made [to Safran] was to get the
year delay to entry-into-service pensation for the cancellations ule it will deliver fully tested Sil- engine working. The second
for the ultra-wide 5X, pushing and the additional development vercrest engines to Dassault in strong demand was that they
back first delivery from 2017 to and engineering costs incurred. 2018 for integration on to the 5X. should stick to the new schedule
2020, which it blamed on prob- He declines to specify a figure Trappier says it is vital that Sa- because the old timetable was
lems with the Safran powerplant. but concedes it is a big amount. fran keeps to the new timetable as well behind us.
That slippage has already hit Obviously there is a contract Dassault cannot afford any fur- Dassault forecasts 45 deliveries
Dassaults backlog figures, with and they are in a gap in this con- ther delays to the programme, not across its Falcon family of busi-
12 cancellations for the 5X tract, and we have got some talks least with rival Gulfstream on ness jets in 2017, down from the
49 it handed over last year.
Trappier says the market con-
STRATEGY tinues to be soft, amid global eco-
Trappier promises broader appeal from clean-sheet future Falcon nomic and political uncertainty.
Today I do not believe the mar-
Dassault continues to evaluate Speaking at a Paris press brief- All our future aircraft will have ket is going to recover very fast in
the market as it plots its next ing, Trappier said cabin com- to be with a cabin size [similar to] 2017, he says.
clean-sheet aircraft programme. fort had become an increasingly the 5X, he says. What is for sure Any upturn will come little
Although the airframer is re- important trend, led by the big- is that they will have a wider fuse- by little, with the sector begin-
vealing few details about which ger aircraft offered by its US rivals. lage than the Falcons flying to- ning to turn by 2018.
segment it will target with what it Dassault is attempting to ad- day: the 5X fuselage looks to be Faced with downward pres-
calls the future Falcon, chief dress this with the 2.58m (8.46ft)- right one. sure on prices, he says Frances
executive ric Trappier has again wide cabin of its developmental Trappier declines to offer a high social and employment
indicated that it will have a wider Falcon 5X, its largest ever, which timeline for the next Falcon de- costs put Dassault at a disadvan-
fuselage than the aircraft in its Trappier says will be the bench- velopment, noting the delays to tage compared with airframers in
currentrange. mark for its future business jets. the 5X programme. Canada and the USA.
Second Tecnam
Traveller to join
flight-test fleet rise in executive jet margins
T ecnam has begun production
of the second P2012 Traveller,
Airframer says US economy will drive recovery, but used aircraft inventory slows growth
Embraer
this year, said James Goddard, posted flat revenues of about
vice-president of fleet planning at $1.73 billion in 2016, reflecting a Brazilian manufacturer plans to deliver around 105-125 units in 2017
the airline on 6 March, speaking delivery output of 117 aircraft 73
at the ISTAT Americas confer- light jets and 44 large jets. This its installed base of around 60% of growing its share of the business
ence in San Diego. compares with 2015 revenues of the global fleet. Stock markets are aircraft market, as the latter ap-
The operator plans to replace $1.72 billion from 120 shipments going up, and business jet [acqui- proach has led to industry-wide
its fleet of more than 80 nine-seat 82 light jets and 38 large jets. sitions] are linked to both GDP pricing pressure and cost cutting.
Cessna 402s and Britten-Norman Speaking on a 9 March full- and stock market [performance]. In fact, Filippo says the compa-
Islanders with the Traveller, but year earnings call, Embraer chief Filippo says recovery is being nys decision in August to cut its
Goddard says the final number of financial officer Jose Filippo pre- hampered by the very large in- 2016 delivery guidance from 150
aircraft is not fixed due to pilot dicted better results going for- ventory of used business jets for to 119 aircraft prompted an in-
shortages in the USA. ward, but cautioned that any sale which he puts at 12% of crease in sales and profit margins.
Launched in 2015, the Traveller improvements would be small. the global in-service fleet. Thats We believe we can keep deliver-
is the largest model in Tecnams Filippo cites the robust US too many, he says. We need ies the same, and still have a mar-
23-strong line-up of light piston- economy and the countrys new this inventory to drop to around gin improvement, he says.
engined aircraft. The high-wing administration as key drivers for 7% in order to have a neutral Embraer ended 2016 with a
type is projected to have a payload market recovery. The USA is the market. Its going to take a while. business jet backlog worth $1.3
of 690kg (1,520lb), and a range of largest market in the world for Embraer says it is now focus- billion, and forecasts deliveries of
over 600nm (1,110km). business jets, he says, pointing to ing on profitability rather than on 105-125 units in 2017.
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COVER STORY
Great expectations
Airbus believes the A350-1000 is set to control the big-twin sector dominated
by the 777-300ER. But has Boeing better anticipated a trend for larger aircraft?
MAX KINGSLEY-JONES LONDON described the 777-300ERs market positioning is 7m (23ft) longer than the baseline A350-900,
as being in the sweet spot. offering around 40 more seats in a typical
T
he audience at Airbuss annual press The fact is that the -300ER has been making arrangement accommodating 366 passengers.
conference this year may have been a life very difficult for Airbus salesmen for more Flight testing began in November last year and
little surprised to hear the companys than a decade in the 300-350-seat segment, the first aircraft is due to enter service with Qatar
senior executives singing the praises effectively banishing Toulouses challenger Airways in the second half of this year. Sales
of the best-selling widebody produced by the four-engined A340-600 to early obsoles- have been less than spectacular so far, with
their arch-rival, the Boeing 777-300ER. cence. But with Boeing now upsizing its big- -1000 orders accounting for just a quarter of the
Airbus chief salesman John Leahy described twin offering around the larger 777X family A350s 821 total orderbook and net sales averag-
Boeings big twin, which has secured over 800 and the -300ER in its sunset years, Leahy and ing just 20 aircraft a year since launch in 2006.
orders, as a fantastic airplane. For regular his team are positively salivating at the oppor- But Airbus is convinced the A350-1000s
attendees, this sort of plaudit for the -300ER tunity this presents for Airbuss new big twin, time is about to come.
was nothing new. Airbus commercial aircraft the A350-1000. The 777-300ER was a fantastic airplane,
president Fabrice Brgier has previously The Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-powered twinjet Leahy said at the January press conference. It
800
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Years since launch*
*Year of first firm order Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer
A350-1000 777-300ER
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
fit a beautiful niche in the market and we have against the A350-1000. at the Dubai air show in 2013, the 777X has
the same range, we have the same seat count There is no doubting that Boeing has got off to a great start with sales having leapt
and we burn about 25% less fuel doing it. already enjoyed success with the 777X fam- ahead of the A350-1000, although a single
We can see why they wanted to move ily, having secured almost 320 orders from customer Emirates accounts for 150 of
out of that market, but the market is still eight customers. This includes a recent com- those orders.
there. Were going to sell a lot of A350-1000s mitment for 20 from Singapore Airlines (SIA), So Airbus is clear in its intent to own the
going forward. after a battle with the -1000. Since its launch space previously dominated by the -300ER.
The -300ERs spiritual successor in the Boe- But can it really achieve its ambition?
ing product line-up is the 400-seat -9, which
is due to come on stream in 2020 as produc- A350-1000 order book BOEING RESPONSE
tion of its predecessor winds up. With that Air Caraibes* 3 The A350-1000 has killed the 777-300ER.
move, Boeing will have effectively vacated Air Lease* 5 Thats why Boeing needed to respond with
the 300-350-seat sector (the smaller 777X vari- Asiana Airlines* 10 the 777X, says Richard Evans, senior con-
ant, the -8, is similar in size to the -300ER but British Airways 18 sultant at Flight Ascend Consultancy.
is scoped for ultra-long-range missions). Cathay Pacific* 26 He believes the A350-1000 can own that
Like the -300ER, the 777X family is offered Etihad Airways* 22 space but points out that with more than 800
exclusively with GE engines, while all fla- Iran Air 16 -300ERs ordered to date, he expects many
vours of A350 come with R-R power. So the Japan Airlines* 13 will remain with their current operators for a
battle of the big twins is playing out both at LATAM Airlines* 14 long time to come.
the airframe and powerplant level. Qatar Airways* 37 Richard Aboulafia, vice-president of analy-
Airbus attributes the decision to add a United Airlines 35 sis at Teal Group, describes the long-range
stretch to the GE9X-powered 777-9X to the Virgin Atlantic 12 twin-aisle market as somewhat fungible.
need for competitive economics, with Total 211 That is, customers are seldom wedded to a
Brgier saying the Boeing twin had to be Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer (March 2017) Notes: *Also specific size; seat-mile costs and range are
A350-900 customer
slightly bigger because it could not compete every bit as important.
Airbus
That said, the 300-350-seat segment is unhappy with both the changes that Airbus Cathay Pacific, SIA and United Airlines for
still the centre of gravity. The market shows introduced, and the way it went about the transpacific operations.
no signs of migrating upward [in terms of revamp, and terminated its contract for 70 air- This has had moderate success so far, with
average seat count]. And right now, the A350- craft, including 50 A350-900s and 20 A350- Cathay and United ordering the -1000, but
1000 has indeed vanquished the 777-300ER. 1000s. Until that point, it had been evaluating Singapore recently opting to go down the Boe-
Evans says there remains a significant mar- whether to convert its entire A350 order to the ing route its commitment for 20 777-9s. Cathay
ket for 300-400-seaters, especially with more larger variant. has ordered both aircraft and will use the
dense economy layouts. The 777-9, in While Emirates could eventually come A350-1000s as replacements for its 777-
10-abreast economy, will be too large for back to the programme it has long been eval- 200/300s and the 777-9 for long-haul opera-
many airlines, he says. I expect several uating the A350 and the 787-10 with a view to tions, and it is not entirely impossible that SIA
A350-900 customers to order the -1000 too, or placing an order the redesign was aimed at could do the same.
to upgauge some of their backlog. boosting the -1000s appeal to the likes of SIA does have a huge backlog of A350-
Flight Fleets Analyzer shows that eight of 900s, some of which could be swapped to
the 42 A350-900 customers/operators have A350 order share by variant -1000s, Evans says.
already ordered the -1000. Airbus has secured Some doubt recently emerged over the
12 customers and 211 orders for the A350- United order, with the airline indicating it
1000 in total. Although about a third of A350 had reversed its decision to use the A350-
customers are also 777-300ER operators, Fleets 8 1000 to replace its 747-400s, and turned to
Analyzer shows that 20 airlines/lessors that 211 last-off-the-line 777-300ERs instead.
have chosen the A350-900 are not existing 777-
300ER operators or have not ordered the 777X. 777-200 REPLACEMENT
I still expect many A350-900 customers I still think the A350-1000 makes a good 777-
to also take the -1000, as it has almost the 200 replacement for United, but perhaps the
same range and better economics, but it priority is the smaller 767 replacement,
602
needs some new customers, says Evans. I Evans says.
think we are in that phase of waiting to see Meanwhile, what are Boeings options for
the aircraft in service. the market it once dominated, if the A350-
Airbus decided in 2011 to effectively 1000 does indeed turn out to be the success
relaunch the A350-1000 with more range and Airbus is forecasting?
higher weights around a more powerful Trent Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer Evans sees the largest of the Boeing Dream-
XWB-97 variant to widen its appeal. But the Notes:*Asiana still holds eight A350-800 orders liner variants, the 330-seat 787-10, providing
move cost it Emirates as a customer for the A350-800* A350-900 A350-1000 strong competition for Airbus in the A350-
entire A350 family. The Dubai carrier was 1000s sector on medium-haul routes where
Boeing
its an interesting horse race to watch.
Despite its stated confidence in the A350- Singapore Airlines chose the 777-9 early this year after a competition with the A350-1000
1000, Airbus has been openly hinting that it
could take the fight to the 777-9 with a new
derivative. Leahy has talked of a 400-seat
A350-2000 but remains convinced that the
bulk of demand will sit with todays variant,
which is clearly the sweet spot in the market.
Even if we were to do the -2000, the majority
of the sales are going to be for the -1000.
But just how easy would it be for Airbus to
Boeing
Airbus
develop a double-stretch if it needs to take the
fight to the 777-9? Evans thinks Airbus will Cathay is one of several taking all three models Eight A350-900 customers hold -1000 orders
find it difficult to respond, not least because a
stretched A350 would need a new engine. Longer term, is there a need for a [new] migrated up towards the 777-9. Their deci-
There is also the question of the ultimate des- two-member family larger than the A350, sion on a stretch or a clean-sheet response
tiny of the A380 programme, which is cur- when the A380 ceases production? he asks. will depend in part on Rolls-Royce, and what
rently next in line to the A350-1000 in the Aboulafia says Airbus would undoubtedly they can or will do, he says.
product line but sitting some 200 seats above it. need to react if the 350-seat market indeed Although the sun is starting to set on the
successful 777-300ER, the aircraft will clearly
remain a key part of airlines long-range fleets
A350-1000
A350-1000 changes
CHANGES COMPARED
compared WITH A350-900
with A350-900
for some years to come. Boeing has delivered
just over 700 -300ERs, and has a further 100 or
Typical seating increased by Reinforced structure so on backlog. By the time the -300ER pro-
41, to 366 passengers (where required)
gramme winds up in three or four years time,
Flight Ascend Consultancy estimates that
Six-frame plug total production should run to about 860 air-
craft since the first in 2004.
Boeing secured 19 net orders for the -300ER
Five-frame plug in 2016 compared with 30 for the A350-1000.
Extended wing
Aboulafia expects sales to continue to slow as
trailing edge last-off-the-line -300ER slots are allocated.
Im not expecting more than a handful of
additional 777-300ER orders, and delivery
Rolls-Royce
Higher thrust Rolls Royce Trent Six-wheel
Six wheel main landing gear rates will continue to plummet, he says.
XWB-97 (97,000lb thrust) (gear bay extended by one frame) Market dynamics will also see availability
Tim Bicheno-Brown/Artscreatif of used 777-300ERs increasing but not
directly as a result of initial A350-1000 cus-
Big twin comparison
tomers, Evans says. It is happening anyway,
A350-1000 777-300ER 777-8 777-9 as the three Gulf network carriers will replace
MTOW (t) 308 352 352 352 their older aircraft with the 777-8/9.
Passengers 366 365 350 400 In 1974, when Airbus debuted the A300, it
Range (nm) 7,950 7,400 MAX 8,700 7,600 introduced to the world the concept of the
Engines R-R Trent XWB GE GE90 GE GE9X GE GE9X big twin. With the A350-1000 poised to
AB Feature
Thrust (lb) 97,000 115,000 105,000 105,000 make its service debut this year, we should
Firm orders 211 AB 807
A350CHANGESa Xa53 253* not have to wait much longer to find out
List price ($m) 359 340 371 400 whether Airbus finally has another machine
Source: Manufacturers/Flight Fleets Analyzer (March 2017) x 62 *Includes 10 777X variant to be decided
114Notes: that can own the big-twin market.
Precision
DAN THISDELL KOUROU
W
hen launching rockets, there
may be grades of failure ex-
plosion and debris being total,
delivery
payload damaged or in wrong
orbit being partial but anywhere along that
scale is a financial and mission disaster. Suc-
cess, on the other hand, is absolute and ab-
solutely, totally delightful.
For sure, the champagne flowed late on the
night of 6 March after the European Space
The European Space Agencys light launcher, Vega, is a Agencys (ESA) light launcher, Vega, lifted a
proven performer in prime position to contest a growing European Earth observation satellite to orbit.
The 58min flight from Europes space centre
market to orbit Earth observation and scientific payloads at Kourou, French Guiana, was a perfect suc-
ESA/SIPA/REX/Shutterstock
Manuel Pedoussaut/ESA
cover them to useful orbits. The Sentinel-2B
flight, VV09 in Arianespace parlance, marked
nine Vega successes in nine outings.
NO TIME TO RELAX Europes Sentinel-2B satellite in its fairing, en route to be joined with Vega for flight VV09
But all of these players know better than to
assume anything. After the cheers and con- Customers, obviously, care about price. stage and a modified Avum upper stage will
gratulatory speeches for VV09 at mission con- The other things they care about are reliability take maximum payload to 2,200kg to low-
trol in Kourou, a visibly relieved and visibly no failures and precision; the spacecraft Earth orbit. As Bellomi puts it, that is 50%
exhausted Stefano Bianchi, who served as needs to be in a specific orbit to carry out its more performance for the same price.
ESAs Vega programme head during develop- mission. Precision, it seems, is also a Vega It is difficult to assess the prospective size
ment and early flights, and who now heads long suit. According to Paolo Bellomi, vice- of the market for small satellite launches, be-
the agencys Ariane 6 programme, observed to president for engineering and product devel- cause launch cost is such a critical factor in
FlightGlobal: No surprises. Number nine opment at Avio, early data from VV09 put the mission feasibility. The Teal Group consul-
starts to be really serious. eccentricity of Sentinel-2Bs orbit at about tancy recently forecast launch demand for
Serious, indeed. Not only are Bianchi and 18m: really close to perfectly circular. nearly 6,500 satellites to low-Earth orbit up to
his colleagues too experienced to relax 2036, but how many of those are so-called
much, anyway but this particular string of Multiple-payload missions are cubesats tiny units, often built by university
flights has defined Vegas place in a fierce researchers and flown as secondary or piggy-
commercial market. VV09 was, perhaps, the
a Vega calling card; its Avum back payloads is not clear. According to sen-
typical Vega mission and out at the limit of its upper stage is restartable, ior vice-president for missions Luce Fab-
performance: an Earth observation satellite, allowing great flexibility reguettes, Arianespace gets lots of enquiries
payload mass, including fuel, of 1,130kg about launches for cubesats and satellites in
(2,490lb), to a category of circular low-Earth the 100-200kg class, but for few prospective
polar orbit called a Sun-synchronous orbit, customers is the finance secure.
meaning that the satellite always passes over All of that costs 35 million ($37.1 million),
any given point on the ground at the same the bill quoted by the European Commission SATELLITE DISPENSER
time of day, for consistent shadows in images. for Sentinel-2Bs launch and the target price Vega C, Fabreguettes says, will be attractive
Later this year, Vega will orbit for ESA anoth- set by ESA and Arianespace five years ago because its greater performance will increase
er scientific/observation spacecraft, ADM- when Vega first flew. A bigger Vega C is being its ability to handle secondary payloads. The
Aeolus a slightly heavier payload at readied for flight from the second half of 2019 increase in size promises to cut the launch
1,400kg, but to a lower orbit at 400km. and while Arianespace has not set the price cost per kilogram as long as a flight is full,
Vegas next flight, in July, will orbit two yet, it has long been pegged as matching Vega. and a dispenser will place small satellites,
smaller satellites, again to polar, Sun-syn- That 35 million is very close to the cost of even cubesats, in precise orbits. There, the
chronous orbits: Israel Aerospace Industries launching Vegas principle competitor, Indias competition is on its game; last month, PSLV
OPTSAT 3000 (400kg) and VENS (300kg). Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV). That orbited a record one Earth imaging unit and
Such multiple-payload missions are a Vega programme has a long record of reliability, 103 secondary cubesats from a single launch.
calling card; the main, second and third stag- and India has ambitions to be a major player Meanwhile, she notes, there is prospective
es are solid fuel rockets, but its liquid fuel in space. Regardless, Vega C promises to shake competition from so-called microlaunchers
Avum upper stage is restartable, allowing up an already dynamic market for small satel- such as the vertical-launch Electron from
great flexibility in mission profile. Such mul- lite launches. A bigger solid fuel main stage Rocketlabs in the USA and Virgin Galactics
tiple launches are a way of sharing, to bring the 120cm diameter P120 engine will double air-launched LauncherOne, both of which are
down the cost of launch. as boosters for Ariane 6 and a new second intended to put a few hundred kilograms into
low-Earth orbit. But while Arianespace owns Sentinel-2B and its sister orbiters in the
keeps an eye on the market and may one day Copernicus Earth observation programme,
want to add to its stable of vehicles, for now it has flown some payloads on this modified
is not so sure about the business case for inter-continental ballistic missile. The Senti-
these launchers, as fixed costs by their nature nel-2B was originally slated for a Rockot
remain fixed. flight, but reliability and scheduling dictated
Philip Hylands of satellite and launcher a switch.
market analysts Seradata adds that while
Electron and LauncherOne have high profiles ROBUST RULES
and great promises, neither has flown yet. In the minutes after VV09s launch, Renato
And, he adds, building a business around Lafranconi, ESAs Vega exploitation pro-
launching cubesats and other very small units gramme manager, glowed with excitement at
poses risks beyond merely managing launcher what had happened through a two-month
Stephane Corvaja/ESA
technology and operations. Modern technolo- launch campaign and 58min flight: All the
gy is making small satellites, even cubesats, work weve done [in development and over
increasingly capable, and some of their mak- the past five years], were getting back now.
ers are becoming very professional. But many VV09, he says, looked to be a perfect flight
are neither able nor willing to pay much for a but a perfect outcome does not necessarily re- VV09 soared from Kourou at 22:49 local time
launch, nor can they always be relied on to de- quire a perfect flight. There were, he recalls,
liver a flyable satellite on schedule. some anomalies with the Avum stage on That robustness is a theme echoed by Bel-
Fabreguettes says reusability may be a way Vegas previous flight, but these did not com- lomi. Post-flight there is a three-month analy-
to make microlaunchers work, cost-wise. But promise the mission. After the flight, it was sis of telemetry data on some 500 parameters.
Hylands urges caution; post-flight refurbish- possible to go back through the huge tranche From nine flights, a huge amount has been
ment of the Space Shuttle was so costly that of qualification data and work out why. learned about all aspects of the manufacture
disposable launchers would have been far and flight campaign of the launcher. As a re-
cheaper, and while SpaceX is widely expect- All the work weve done [in sult, he says, manufacture is improving; VV01
ed to demonstrate, imminently, its ability to flagged up a large amount of anomalies
re-use a main stage, promises of actual cost-
development], were getting parts that needed changing during produc-
savings are, for now, just that: promises. back now tion, for example but now we are flying to-
For the types of missions flown by Vega Renato Lafranconi ward anomaly zero.
and PSLV there is little competition. The USA Vega exploitation programme manager, Vega C, he adds, is also enjoying significant
including SpaceX and Russia do not pay European Space Agency technological advances. Avionics and even
much attention to this market, as they get so vehicle structure are to be dramatically im-
much business from bigger, government Yes, he says, there was political pressure to proved with some genuine breakthrough
payloads, notes Hylands. China, he adds, is fly soon, but a lot of qualification work built a technologies and improvements on shortcom-
out of the picture because any satellite is like- really big database of performance. And, criti- ings discovered in analysis of Vegas perfor-
ly to have some US content and fall under re- cally, some good decisions were taken early mance. Manufacturing, too, is getting a boost
strictive international traffic in arms regula- and these have made Vega a robust launcher. Vega Cs part count is much lower, making
tions. Russias Rockot gets some business; Issues that arise in flight can be managed be- for a simpler machine. It will, he says, mark a
indeed, the European Commission, which cause there is lots of margin. step ahead in performance and operability.
Between now and first flight in the second
half of 2019 come many critical milestones. In
the fourth quarter of this year, the new second
stage will be static-fired, and tests will begin
on a new carbon composite interstage struc-
ture that Bellomi describes as very lightweight
and completely innovative. Test firing of the
P120 main stage will follow. Of new avionics
which will help increase the validated in-
orbit life of the Avum restartable stage to sev-
eral days from just over two orbits now, prom-
ising a huge expansion of mission flexibility
he is confident that the development style
of Avio and its partners will deliver. So Bello-
mi sees Vega Cs first flight not so much as a
maiden flight but as the next flight in a series.
Before that flight, naturally, Bellomi and all
his partners at ASI, ESA and Arianespace will
be wished good luck by friends, family and
Stephane Corvaja/ESA
Italdesign
Revolution!
like the Jetsons Germany has done her best
Ever since The Jetsons the to bring about a revolution in
1960s Hanna-Barbera cartoon [Russia], and at
featuring a futuristic family the last she has
flying car has been imagined as a succeeded. But
solution to trafficjams. her very success
The latest concept comes has carried bitter defeat with
from none other than Airbus, it, for the revolution that has
which along with design come about is the exact
consultancy Italdesign, antithesis of the one
premiered the Pop.Up multi- designed by Germany.
modal transportation system at
the recent Geneva Motor Show. Giant glider
It takes the form of a You think this is far-fetched? Airbus still believes the A new German transport
passenger capsule that can be A380 is going to be a massive commercial success. glider, The Giant, is
coupled with a battery-powered reported to have
chassis for ground transport or, been completed.
alternatively, an air module Baker, Charlotte Carr and Nuria www.news.at
Der Ball der Blle
Alles zum Wirtschaftswunder Opernball
The glider is said
propelled by four pairs of Belda Marco made up the team. to have a wing-
counter-rotating fans to take The flight was operated on an span of 120ft. and is towed
advantage of the third Airbus A320 named after Amy by three machines. It can
Nr. 7 18. 2. 2017 2,90
Teilzeit
dimension to get from A to B Johnson. Eighty-seven years Warum die sterreicher
immer weniger arbeiten carry 150 fully armed men
efficiently whilst avoiding traffic after the aviators pioneering Drogen
Wenn Mama
or heavy cargo!
P.b.b. GZ 02Z032108 W Verlagsgruppe News Gesellschaft m.b.H., Taborstrae 1-3, 1020 Wien Retouren an Postfach 100, 1350 Wien
The ability to soar above the few women choose a career in CIA infiltration?
clogged urban arteries makes the cockpit. So congratulations Sir, Watching Panorama
sense, of course, if yours is the to EasyJet, and others, for trying the other evening I
STERREICH GEGEN AIRBUS
only vehicle with the means to to close the gender gap. suddenly began
do so; less so if your fellow road-
DIE AKTE to wonder
Deutschland 3,50 / Italien 3,50
News zeigt auf, wie Veeidigungsminister Hans Peter Doskozil mehr als eine
Milliarde Euro zurckholen will. Exklusive Dokumente oenbaren neue
Zusammenhnge beim grten Rstungsdeal der Nachkriegsgeschichte
magazine promises an insight Everyone knocks the
Women up front
9
into the multi-billion euro Some sort of cover up? Concorde. If its systems are
EasyJet marked International dispute between Vienna and the in trouble let us get them
Womens Day with a flight from consortium behind the Typhoon right, but stop praising all
London Gatwick to Madrid with a real Euro fight, notes Kees Blue goes red things American and
an all-female crew. de Lezenne Coulander, who Blue Air is taking no chances running ourselves down.
EZY8275 was commanded by spotted it. with its first aircraft based at G. H. F. Plinston,
Kate McWilliams, who the low- While arguing, he adds, Liverpools John Lennon airport Sqn Ldr (Retd)
cost carrier notes is the worlds perhaps they didnt notice they which is emblazoned with the
youngest woman commercial received a slightly modified message Cool city warm Debt crisis
captain at 27, and co-piloted by aeroplane. welcome. Brazils airlines are asking
first officer Sue Barrett. Cabin The cover shows its arch- In a city where allegiances are the Government for
crew Laura Marks, Natasha competitor, the Dassault Rafale. famously split between rival $2.2billion in
football teams, the Romanian low-interest
carrier has sensibly decided to loans to help bail
paint at least half the slogan on the industry out
the Boeing 737-800 in red. of its mounting debt crisis.
The four national and five
regional Brazilian airlines
May the force face a combined debt of
We suspect that whoever in the around $2 billion.
US Department for the Air Force
is behind this solicitation for an 100-year archive
avionics system for the F-16 has Every issue of Flight
a Star Wars fetish. from 1909 onwards
Its a request for a Cockpit can be viewed online at
EasyJet
ee engineers at universities. We
THEORY also need universities to actively
Hypothesis matches the facts invest crippling student fees into
actual resources for students, and
Regarding Malcolm for those universities to have
We welcome your letters on any
aspect of the aerospace industry.
Bowdens letter Futile theo- open access to aeronautical
Please write to: rising (Flight International, engineering companies. We need
The Editor, Flight International, 7-13 February): I would these companies to take an active
REX/Shutterstock
Quadrant House, The Quadrant, agree that a theory can only interest in mentoring and devel-
Sutton, Surrey, SM2 5AS, UK be as good as the evidence. oping engineers.
Or email: But in the case of MH370, is We need to go back to the
flight.international@flightglobal.com there an alternative to taking Search was called off in January culture of talking to each other
The opinions on this page do not the published data at face where senior engineers do not
necessarily represent those of the editor.
Letters without a full postal address sup-
value? If a hypothesis matches the facts, it can be used for pre- just say you are wrong, but ex-
plied may not be published. Letters may dictions where we have no data. plain, teach and nurture. We
also be published on flightglobal.com Altitude, speed, and heading data were recorded by military need to remove the culture of
and must be no longer than 250 words. radar that seems to have been active for an air defence continuously blaming engineers
exercise. The military and civil radar tracks corroborated this. and give them the opportunity to
On the other hand, its speculation to say the communication fill gaps. Lets do this instead of
Betrayal on an loss was sudden and complete, or that the flight was continually putting them down.
controlled for hours afterwards. In fact, the radar plots, Name and address withheld
industrial scale displayed 12 days later, suggest the opposite.
In response to Peter Bishops
letter: Engineers must learn the
While a serious fire seems to match the circumstances, we
find it difficult to countenance the wrecked aircraft flying on Fair competition
basics (Flight International, after it reached its peak. But is there a scenario that makes a With regard to J McDermotts let-
17-23 January): I would like to better fit? The distribution of recovered debris has identified ter about the USAF tanker compe-
offer a graduate aeronautical en- areas of high and low probability of origin, but the analysis tition, Boeing has questions to
gineers perspective on this. doesnt extend to the 750 mile segment of the seventh arc answer (Flight International,
The writer may have started south of Jakarta that went unsearched in the immediate after- 14-20 February): I assume his
out on a positive note, but the math. This area would be reachable by an erratic flight path. tongue was firmly in his cheek
classic backstabbing of engi- Richard Lloyd when he asked the rhetorical
neers started in earnest in para- Coventry, UK questions Did Boeing deliberate-
graph three when he says the ly under-quote, just to stop Airbus
new generation of engineers, getting the contract they had in
though with higher IT skills, although they constantly do have, major gaps in my hands- fact already won? Does Airbus
come with lower engineering complain of a lack of engineers, on practical knowledge, we must have a case for compensation?
ability and judgement. do not grant access to their up- address why this is. Airbus had not already won.
This is biased reality. Gradu- dated software or their labs for Many students do not have In 2008, the US Government
ate/post-graduate engineers in learning and practical imple- access to resources to gain Accountability Office an inde-
the first five years of their careers mentation of skills. practical experience. It is all very pendent agency sustained Boe-
do enter into the industry with a Take a look at any graduate en- well for people in office to moan ings protest against the Airbus
higher rate of emphasis on soft- gineering job application, and about the situation, but what are bid in the first competition, and
ware however, they do this be- you will see just how precise the they doing to change it? recommended that the contract
cause that is what the companies recruiters are in requesting spe- Mr Bishop also stabs engineers be re-bid. Boeing won the second
they are applying to require. cific software knowledge as a in the back by saying they are competition in 2011 by submit-
You have to invest a lot of time minimum entrance requirement. unable to concentrate for more ting the lower responsive bid.
to stay up-to-date with software, If you do not have that, then than 10min. Perhaps the indus- If that bid proves unprofitable,
because the vast majority of uni- you do not get the job. It is as cut- try should speak to candidates Boeing may have to answer to its
versities and industries have no throat and as simple as that. and actively engage them, in- shareholders, but not Airbus.
synchronised link with each Mr Bishop also criticises the stead of continuously demand- I salute Flight Internationals
other. Universities, although they lack of practical experience logged ing high output with zero input. aviation reporting, which I have
increase their fees, do not always by engineers. Although I agree What we really need is for appreciated since 1958.
invest those funds directly into with this point and admit that as a retiring engineers to actively Alan Hoffman
student development. Industries, graduate engineer, I had, and still work, develop and mentor train- St Louis, Missouri, USA
www.flightglobalimages.com
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Engineering
10:57
42 | Flight International | 21-27 March 2017 flightglobal.com
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