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Quantitative Analysis Hal 322 No.

8-10

Problem 8
Willco is a manufacturer in a mature cyclical industry. During the most recent industry
cycle, its net income averaged $30 million per year with a standard deviation of $10
million (n = 6 observations). Management claims that Willcos performance during the
most recent cycle results from new approaches and that we can dismiss profitability
expectations based on its average or normalized earnings of $24 million per year in
prior cycles.
A. With as the population value of mean annual net income, formulate null and
alternative hypotheses consistent with testing Willco managements claim.

Hipotesis Awal : = 24
Hipotesis Alternatif : > 24

B. Assuming that Willcos net income is at least approximately normally distributed,


identify the appropriate test statistic.

Menggunakan Rumus T-stat, df = 5

C. Identify the rejection point or points at the 0.05 level of significance for the hypoth
tested in Part A.

Menolak jika t > 2.015 (berasal dari 0.05 tabel t-distribution appendix B), ini diketahui seb

D. Determine whether or not to reject the null hypothesis at the 0.05 significance leve

Tidak ada yang ditolak satu pun (tidak tolak nol)

Use the following table to answer Problems 9 and 10.


Mean Forecast Error
Nb of forecasts (PredictedActual)
Analyst A 101 0.05
Analyst B 121 0.02

Problem 9
Investment analysts often use earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. One test of forecastin
quality is the zero-mean test, which states that optimal forecasts should
have a mean forecasting error of 0. (Forecasting error = Predicted value of variable A
You have collected data (shown in the table above) for two analysts who cover two
different industries: Analyst A covers the telecom industry; Analyst B covers automotiv
parts and suppliers.
A. With as the population mean forecasting error, formulate null and alternative
hypotheses for a zero-mean test of forecasting quality.

H0: = 0, Ha : 0

B. For Analyst A, using both a t-test and a z-test, determine whether to reject the null
the 0.05 and 0.01 levels of significance.

t: df = 100, = 0.05, t > 1.984 atau t < -1.984 = 0.01, t > 2.626 atau t< -2.626 t = 5.025

C. For Analyst B, using both a t-test and a z-test, determine whether to reject the null
the 0.05 and 0.01 levels of significance.

t = 2.444, menolak di = 0.05, Gagal untuk menolak di = 0.01

Problem 10
Reviewing the EPS forecasting performance data for Analysts A and B, you want to
investigate whether the larger average forecast errors of Analyst A are due to chance o
to a higher underlying mean value for Analyst B. Assume that the forecast errors of bot
analysts are normally distributed and that the samples are independent.
A. Formulate null and alternative hypotheses consistent with determining whether the
population mean value of Analyst As forecast errors (1) are larger than Analyst
Bs (2).

H0 : 1-2 0, Ha : 1-2 > 0

B. Identify the test statistic for conducting a test of the null hypothesis formulated in
Part A.
Menggunakan Rumus t-test, df = 200

C. Identify the rejection point or points for the hypothesis tested in Part A, at the 0.05
level of significance.

Menolak jika t > 1.653 (berasal dari 0.05 tabel t-distribution appendix B), ini diketahui seb

D. Determine whether or not to reject the null hypothesis at the 0.05 level of significa

Ada yang ditolak. Yang di tolak (t = 2.351) --> Tolak Nol


ng the most recent industry
tandard deviation of $10
s performance during the
e can dismiss profitability
f $24 million per year in

me, formulate null and


gements claim.

ely normally distributed,

significance for the hypothesis

ppendix B), ini diketahui sebelumnya df = 5

t the 0.05 significance level.

Standard Deviations of
Forecast Errors
0.13
0.12
casts. One test of forecasting
ecasts should
dicted value of variable Actual value of variable.)
analysts who cover two
Analyst B covers automotive

te null and alternative

whether to reject the null at

626 atau t< -2.626 t = 5.025, artinya ditolak

e whether to reject the null at

s A and B, you want to


nalyst A are due to chance or
at the forecast errors of both
ndependent.
h determining whether the
e larger than Analyst

l hypothesis formulated in
tested in Part A, at the 0.05

ppendix B), ini diketahui sebelumnya df = 200

t the 0.05 level of significance.

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