BC TRACKING - APRIL 1-3, 2017

EMBARGOED UNTIL:
6 AM PST, APRIl 7, 2017
PRINT EXCLUSIVE:
POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Methodology
Mainstreet surveyed a stratied random sample of
1,650 British Columbians from April 1-3, 2017
through Chimera IVR. Respondents were screened
to conrm voting eligibility. Landline and Cell lines
were included. Responses were weighed using
demographic information to targets based on the
2011 Census.
The margin of error for survey results is 2.41
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For Greater
Vancouver specic results, the margin of error is
3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For
Vancouver Island specic results, the margin of
error is 4.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
For Rest of BC results, the margin of error is 4.64
percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Note: Beginning last week BC Conservative Voters
stopped being asked Party Strength and Second
Choice questions, instead BC Conservative Voters
were asked what they would do in the event no
Conservative Candidate ran in their riding.
About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
majority government in the 2015 federal election.
Contact Information
In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Montreal: David Valentin, Executive Vice
President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
AS RACE BEGINS, MINORITY GOVERNMENT LOOMS

April 7, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the NDP continues to lead province
wide, while the Greens have held onto gains made last week. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin
of error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The NDP continues to lead in the province but it is a tight race when we look at decided and leaning
voters said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. The NDP and Liberals are essentially tied and
all three parties seem to be doing well in dierent parts of the province. The NDP are seeing their strength
come from the Greater Vancouver area, the Greens are leading the NDP on Vancouver Island by 1
percentage point, essentially leaving them tied given the margin of error, and the BC Liberals are doing best
in the interior and north. If an election were held today the result would likely be a minority government.

Theres two ways to look at Green support this week, given that their numbers are essentially unchanged
from last week: you could say that the Greens have stalled or you could say that they have been able to
hang on to their newfound support.

Among all voters: 26% Liberal, 29% NDP, 13% Green, 9% Conservative, 23% Undecided
Among Decided & Leaning Voters: 33% Liberal, 36% NDP, 19% Green, 11 Conservative

This week we asked about aordable housing and whether the BC government has a role to play. 58% of
British Columbian say it does though that number falls outside of Greater Vancouver (67%) and Vancouver
Island (64%) to just 37%. 12% of British Columbians say the federal government should have sole
responsibility while 10% say municipal governments should have sole responsibility.

We asked British Columbians about a host of taxes that could stem speculation in the real estate industry.
Despite telling us in previous polling that the foreign buyers tax was ineective, the foreign buyers taxed
polled highest at 37%. Other options included a tax on non-rst time home buyers (13% support), a tax on
corporate home buyers (15%) and combining all three tax proposals (25% support).

Lastly, we asked what British Columbians thought of giving families in Vancouver assistance or a tax credit
if they could prove they worked in the city. While the idea is popular in Greater Vancouver (65% support)
it has less than 1 third support in the rest of the province, nished Maggi.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

Minority Government Looms
With current voting intentions, its unlikely that
B.C. would nd itself with anything but a minority
government.
The NDP would be set to take new seats in the
lower mainland while the Greens would pick up
additional seats on Vancouver Island.
To be sure, even with these numbers the vote
splits in ridings could lead to any number of
results: but the most likely result at the moment
would be a minority government.
When we re-assign Conservative voters there is no
more clarity than we have at present. Re-assigning
conservative voters only feeds into the regional
distinctions we are seeing. The NDP end up doing
Decided & Leaning Voters
better in Greater Vancouver, the Greens keep their
lead on Vancouver Island and the Liberals increase
their lead in the Rest of B.C.
An election isnt being held tomorrow - but with
the campaign set to begin its important to
recognize the dynamics we are beginning to see
set out.
The Liberals are going to battle two change
candidates but have to be careful about attacking
the Greens.
The NDP is ghting a two-front war and has to
defend its left ank if it is going to be successful.
So far their response to the Green party is to
ignore them - that may not be sustainable.
The Greens meanwhile need to crack 20% and fast
- if they are not seen as a real alternative soon its
possible their numbers will begin to drop and they
may never be able to recover from it.
All three parties face signicant challenges and all
three leaders have a lot of work to do to be
successful.
We would probably be analyzing this election
dierently if Adrian Dix, Hillary Clinton, Jim
Prentice and Tom Mulcair had been elected in
recent elections - but they werent.
So, we will continue to keep an open mind while
grounding our analysis in the numbers - as we
have always strived to do.
Only time can tell.
Among All Voters
 (DISCONTINUED)

Strength Consistent
Support Strength for the Green Party is up ever so
slightly and has increased marginally for the
Liberals as well.
 Second Choices
Second Choice is consistent from last week. Moving forward
we will begin to re-evaluate how we present second choice
preference to account for the lack of Conservative
candidates.

(DISCONTINUED)
 Decided & Leaning Voters with BC Conservative Voters Reassigned
So far, the B.C. Conservatives have nominated 6
candidates out of 87 constituencies. If there is
no B.C. Conservative in your riding who would
you vote for?
Should B.C Conservatives be Polled?
Results for our B.C. Conservative follow-up
question are consistent with last weeks result. But
with only 6 candidates nominated and with the
nomination deadline coming up shortly we have
begun to debate under what circumstances the
B.C Conservatives would be excluded from polling.
Its possible rather than exclude them all together
we will begin oering them as an option in regions
where they have nominated a sucient amount of
candidates to be relevant.
To date we are only aware of 6 candidates that
have been nominated though we understand that
there are additional candidates that are presently
being vetted.