ACI MATERIALS JOURNAL
Title no. 105-M01
Prediction of Reinforcement Corrosion in Concrete and Its
Effects on Concrete Cracking and Strength Reduction
by Chun-Qing Li, Yang Yang, and Robert E. Melchers
Based on extensive research on reinforcing steel corrosion in
concrete in the past decades, it is now possible to estimate the
effect of the progression of reinforcement corrosion in concrete
infrastructure on its structural performance. There are still areas
of considerable uncertainty in the models and in the data available,
however. This paper uses a recently developed model for reinforcement
corrosion in concrete to improve the estimation process and to
indicate the practical implications. In particular, stochastic models
are used to estimate the time likely to elapse for each phase of the
whole corrosion process: initiation, corrosion-induced concrete
cracking, and structural strength reduction. It was found that, for
practical flexural structures subject to chloride attacks, corrosion
initiation may start quite early in their service life. It was also found
that, once the structure is considered to be unserviceable due to
corrosion-induced cracking, there is considerable remaining service
life before the structure can be considered to have become unsafe.
The procedure proposed in the paper has the potential to serve as a
rational tool for practitioners, operators, and asset managers to
make decisions about the optimal timing of repairs, strengthening,
and/or rehabilitation of corrosion-affected concrete infrastructure.
Timely intervention has the potential to prolong the service life
of infrastructure.
Keywords: cracking; serviceability; steel corrosion; strength.
INTRODUCTION
The corrosion of reinforcing steel in concrete is recognized as
a significant problem for concrete infrastructure subjected to
chloride environments (Bentur et al. 1997). Corrosion-
induced structural deterioration is a gradual process with a
commencement time not always obvious from external
examination. Once reinforcement corrosion becomes active,
however, it almost invariably causes concrete cracking;
excessive deflection, and, eventually, the loss of structural
ultimate strength, with potentially catastrophic consequences.
There has been extensive research on steel corrosion in
concrete in the past decades (ACI Committee 365 2000;
Andrade et al. 1993; Castel et al. 2000; Hong and Hooton
1999; Melchers and Li 2006; Pantazopoulou and Papoulia
2001; Roberts et al. 2000; Weyers et al. 1994); and it is now
possible to provide a reasonable estimate of the whole
process of reinforcement corrosion in concrete infrastructure. It
is important to note that this also allows its effects on structural
performance to be estimated and enables the service life of
corrosion-affected concrete infrastructure to be predicted
using various theoretical frameworks developed in the past
few years (Frangopol et al. 1997).
Despite these significant advances, there are still areas of
considerable uncertainty in the various models and in the
data available. In an effort to provide some improvement,
Melchers and Li (2006) recently developed a phenomeno-
logical model for the corrosion of reinforcing steel bars in
concrete as a function of time (Fig. 1). The model has a
ACI Materials Journal/January-February 2008
TECHNICAL PAPER
Fig. 1Phenomenological model for steel corrosion in
concrete. (Note: diameter loss in mm.)
number of features in common with earlier models but
differs from them in important ways (Tuutti 1982; Weyers et
al. 1994; Bentur et al. 1997; Francois and Arliguie 1999). In
principle, the model applies to the steel bar at a generic cross
section of a reinforced concrete member. The model divides
the corrosion process into two stages with six detailed
phases. The two stages of corrosion initiation and propagation
are similar to those of Tuutti (1982), but the detailed phases
comprising them are derived from the mechanics of corrosion
(Melchers 2003). As shown in Fig. 1, Phase D1 is the diffusion
of chlorides into the concrete and the commencement of
leaching of hydroxyl ions out of the concrete. When there are
cracks present in the member (for example, flexural
members), the local time to initiation tic is governed by the
time of occurrence of the local crack(s) (Li 2002). When no
cracks occur in the member, tic tends to be the initiation time
ti, which is governed by the rate of diffusion and therefore
the permeability of the concrete (Melchers and Li 2006). At
ti, the chlorides will have reached the steel but the balance
between the concentrations of the Cl and (OH) ions and the
pH may not be such that active corrosion will actually
commence (which is denoted as tac).
During Phase C0, the rate of corrosion tends to increase
because the pH will typically reduce due to the leaching of
hydroxyl ions out of the concrete. In Phase C1, the propagation
of corrosion is governed by the rate of oxygen and water
supplies and the conditions at the steel corroding surface.
Because of microcracking (for example, caused by stress)
and the resulting loss of influence from Cl and (OH) ions
and the greater permeability, the environment external to the
ACI Materials Journal, V. 105, No. 1, January-February 2008.
MS No. M-2005-335.R3 received February 2, 2007, and reviewed under Institute
publication policies. Copyright 2008, American Concrete Institute. All rights reserved,
including the making of copies unless permission is obtained from the copyright proprietors.
Pertinent discussion including authors closure, if any, will be published in the November-
December 2008 ACI Materials Journal if the discussion is received by August 1, 2008.
3

Chun-Qing Li is a Professor of civil engineering at Zhejiang University of Technology,
Hangzhou, China, and at the University of Greenwich, London, UK. His research
interests include risk and reliability analysis of civil works, effects of steel corrosion on
structural behavior, methodology of whole life designs and assessment of infrastructure,
stochastic modeling of loads (for example, winds) and structural resistance deterioration,
and general risk assessment.
Yang Yang is a Professor of civil engineering at Zhejiang University of Technology.
His research interests include durability of concrete and concrete structures, chloride
ingress in concrete, behaviors of concrete at early age, creep and volume change of
concrete, and properties of materials in concrete structures.
Robert E. Melchers is the Chair of Civil Engineering and Director of the Centre for
Infrastructure Performance and Reliability at the University of Newcastle,
Callaghan, Australia. His research interests include structural engineering risk and
reliability analyses, risk-based decision-making and life-cycle management, and
deterioration modeling (including corrosion and fiber composites).
concrete will increasingly control the corrosion rate. As
corrosion progresses, there will be an increasing build-up of
corrosion products and associated increased radial stresses,
causing longitudinal cracking and, eventually, concrete spalling.
Moreover, the increasing build-up of corrosion products on
the corroding surfaces will contribute to an increasing resistance
to oxygen diffusion (that is, the rate of oxygen supply to the
corroding surfaces). Phase C2 denotes the period when this
controls the rate of corrosion. Eventually, the rate of oxygen
diffusion to the corroding bars through the rust layer will
become so low that anaerobic corrosion activity will set in
(Melchers 2003). This is shown as Phase C3 in Fig. 1.
This paper explores the implications of the corrosion
model in Fig. 1 for practical applications. Moreover, it
investigates the effects of the whole corrosion process on
structural performance over time, using criteria relevant to
practical applications and expressed in conventional ultimate
and serviceability limit states. To allow for the fact that there
are still considerable degrees of uncertainty in data and in
some of the models, stochastic methods are applied. This
recognizes that both the corrosion process and its effects on
structural performance are not only random but also time
variant. The procedure proposed in the paper can serve as a
rational tool for practitioners, operators, and asset managers
to make decisions about the optimal timing of repairs and
strengthening and/or rehabilitating corrosion-affected
concrete infrastructure.
RESEARCH SIGNIFICANCE
Although research on steel corrosion in concrete has been
both extensive and intensive for the past three decades or so
(see the previous references), it has focused largely on the
initiation of corrosion and, to a lesser extent, its propagation,
rather than on its effect on structural performance. The
whole process of corrosion in concrete infrastructure and, in
particular, its effects on structural deterioration over time
have been accorded little attention (Val and Melchers 1997;
Iwanami et al. 2002). In practice, corrosion tends to be a
visual problem for concrete infrastructure (for example,
stains and concrete cracking), but its effect on structural
performance (that is, the downgrading of safety and
serviceability) is of greater concern to practitioners, operators,
and asset managers. This paper addresses both issues by
attempting to provide a means for estimating the onset of
each phase of the corrosion process, thereby facilitating timely
maintenance for corrosion-affected concrete infrastructure, with
the potential to prolong its service life.
4 ACI Materials Journal/January-February 2008
CORROSION INITIATION
It is well known that even when the chloride content at the
surface of reinforcing steel bars exceeds a threshold value,
the corrosion of the steel does not necessarily start in the
concrete (Li 2002). For this reason alone it is appropriate to
represent the corrosion of reinforcing steel in concrete as a
random phenomenon. The time to corrosion initiation can be
estimated in a stochastic manner as follows
pi(t) = P[A B] (1)
where pi(t) is the probability of corrosion initiation at time t, P
is the probability of an event, and denotes the intersection
of events, and B is the event of corrosion onset. In Eq. (1), A is
the event that the chloride content CCl at the surface of steel
bars exceeds a threshold value Cl, which is denoted as
A = [ C Cl ( t ) Cl ] (2)
Using conditional probability and substituting Eq. (2) into
Eq. (1) yields
p i ( t ) = P [ C Cl ( t ) Cl ] P [ ] (3)
where P[] = P[B|A] is the probability of corrosion onset for
a given threshold value Cl. Thus, for a given acceptable
probability pi,a, whenever
pi(ti) pi,a (4)
the initiation time of steel corrosion in concrete is determined,
that is, ti. Clearly, pi,a represents the reliability (or confidence) of
the prediction.
Model for chloride content CCl(t)Various attempts have
been made to model the chloride ingress in concrete,
including analytical models based on such theories as diffusion,
absorption and electrostatic fields (for example, Baant
1979; Roberts et al. 2000), and empirical models based on
results from laboratory experiments (Hong and Hooton
1999) and/or collected from sites (Bamforth 1999). Of all
models available, it appears that the model based on the
theory of diffusion can best represent the chloride ingress in
concrete (Bamforth 1999). According to the diffusion
theory, the chloride content (concentration) in concrete
CCl(x,t), at a distance from the concrete surface x and at a
given time t, can be estimated by Ficks second law as
follows (Roberts et al. 2000)
2
C Cl ( x, t ) C Cl ( x, t )
------------------------ = D c -------------------------
- (5)
t x
2
where Dc is the apparent (or effective) diffusion coefficient
for concrete. Taking x as the concrete cover, the chloride
content Ccl (t) at the surface of steel bars at time t can be obtained
as follows (Bamforth 1999; Li et al. 2003)
x
C Cl ( t ) = C s 1 erf ------------ (6)
2 D c t
where Cs is the equilibrium chloride content on the
surface of the concrete and erf is the error function. As
can be seen, both Dc and Cs are assumed constant,
although in practice they are generally not constant
(Bamforth 1999 and Li et al 2003).
In applying Ficks second law to predicting chloride
ingress in concrete, an important assumption has been made
in deriving the solution to Eq. (6). That is, the bulk concrete
is assumed to be a homogeneous material, thereby essentially
eliminating the possible influence of internal cracking. Most
concrete design codes and standards allow concrete to crack
to certain limits of crack width, for example, ACI 318-99
(ACI Committee 318 1999) and British Standard BS 8110
(1997). Hence, it is desirable that solutions to Ficks second Fig. 2Probability distribution of corrosion onset in terms
law can accommodate this. A solution based on fluid of chloride content.
mechanics, whereby the diffusion of chloride into the
cracked concrete is modeled as a combined Knudsen flow
and viscous flow, has been proposed (Li et al. 2003), with the
diffusion coefficient for cracked concrete determined from

cr 2
D c = ---------c w (7)
6

where is the coefficient of viscosity of the chloride ions

(in Pas); c is the mean free path of chloride ions (in m); w
is the crack width at concrete surface (in mm); and is a
constant for the chloride to be in a steady state. Obviously,
the parameters of Eq. (7) are environment-dependent and
hence need to be calibrated in each application. Based on
experimental results on cracked concrete with crack widths
in the range of 0.05 to 0.3 mm (0.002 to 0.012 in.) and under
the simulated marine environment (tidal and splash zones) (Li et
al. 2003), it can be shown that Dccr = 43.89w2 in mm2/day,
where w is the crack width on the surface of the concrete
(in mm).
Model for corrosion onset P[]In the real world of
concrete structures, the corrosion onset on the steel bar is
also random. Most research in this area (Bamforth 1999;
Roberts et al. 2000) focuses on determining a critical value
of chloride concentration, that is, the threshold above which
the corrosion is initiated. Unfortunately, there is no general
agreement as to the threshold level of chloride content.
According to Dhir (1999), the threshold value for corrosion
initiation varies from 0.15 to 1.5 (in percent of cement
weight) based on the results of various researchers and
values used in the standards. This dispersion of threshold
values highlights the need to develop a probabilistic model for
corrosion onset with respect to chloride content because the
threshold itself is a random variable.
Li (2002) carried out comprehensive experiments on the
onset of steel corrosion in concrete under marine tidal and
splash conditions that were simulated in an environmental
chamber with controlled saltwater spray for intermittent
wetting and drying. In the experiment, the corrosion onset
was verified by visual inspection after breaking open the
concrete and taking out the reinforcing bars. Due to the space
limit, details of the experiment cannot be described herein
(refer to Li 2002). Test results shown in Fig. 2 represent 39 test
specimens of normal portland cement concrete with a water-
cement ratio (w/c) of 0.45. As can be seen, the range of chloride
content from 0.04 to 0.07 (in percent of concrete weight, which
is approximately 0.334 to 0.585 in percent of cement weight for
given mixture proportions) is the most sensitive concentration to
Fig. 3Probability of corrosion initiation with time (cracked
concrete).
corrosion onset. These values are consistent with the threshold
values noted previously for a range of w/c (Dhir 1999). In
principle, Fig. 2 can be represented by a normal distribution.
With models for both CCl(t) and P[] now available, using
Eq. (3), it is possible for a given threshold value of chloride
content to estimate the probability of corrosion initiation as
a function of time. Standard reliability methods are employed
in the computation, such as the first-order reliability (FOR)
method and the Monte Carlo simulation, both of which are
well known and described in Melchers (1999). With the
statistical values of basic variables in Table 1, such results
are shown in Fig. 3 and 4 for both cracked and uncracked
concrete (where the corresponding coefficients of diffusion
are used in estimating CCl(t)). As can be seen, the effects of
chloride ingress and threshold values of chloride content on
the probability of corrosion initiation are interrelated. As
expected, the threshold value determines the final probability of
corrosion initiation. Thus, for a given acceptable probability
of corrosion initiation pi,a, the initiation time ti can be
determined using Eq. (4). To be consistent with ASTM
C876 (1991), which uses 90% confidence level to predict
corrosion initiation, let
pi(ti) = 0.9 (8)
from which ti 16 years (189 months) with the threshold Cl =
0.06 for concrete without cracks. This result is consistent
with many of published results (Bamforth 1999; Roberts et al.
2000). For cracked concrete with a crack width of 0.1 mm
(0.0004 in.), Eq. (8) gives tic = 0.57 years (208 days) for the

ACI Materials Journal/January-February 2008 5


Fig. 4Probability of corrosion initiation with time
(uncracked concrete).
same Cl = 0.06. Observations from practical concrete
structures (with flexural cracks) located in a marine environment
(Francois and Castel 2001; Mohammed and Hamada 2003)
correspond well to this result.
CORROSION-INDUCED CONCRETE CRACKING
Because in practice the time to active corrosion tac cannot
be observed, it is conventional to use a substitute tnom (refer
to Fig. 1), which is the time determined by Eq. (4) and is the
time at which corrosion is assumed to occur at a significant
rate. In this paper tnom is taken to be either ti or tic (only one
of which occurs).
For the same reasons as for the initiation time, the time to
corrosion-induced concrete cracking should be determined
in a probabilistic manner. According to design codes and
standards (ACI Committee 318 1999; British Standard BS
8110 1997), the practical criterion related to concrete cracking
of concrete structures is to limit the crack width to a
prescribed level rather than attempt to eliminate cracking
completely. The probability that the corrosion-induced crack
width w(t) on a concrete surface is greater than a prescribed
limit wcr can be determined from
pc(t) = P[w(t) wcr] (9)
where t is the time from corrosion initiation. In analogy to
corrosion initiation, for a given acceptable probability pc,a,
whenever
pc(tc) pc,a (10)
the time tc to corrosion-induced cracking is determined. To
perform this analysis, models are required for crack width
and for a crack width limit. These are now considered.
Model for crack width w(t)Concrete with embedded
reinforcing steel bars can be modeled as a thick-wall
cylinder (Baant 1979; Pantazopoulou and Papoulia 2001).
This is shown schematically in Fig. 5(a), where D is the
diameter of steel bar, d0 is the thickness of the annular layer
of concrete pores (that is, a pore band) at the interface
between the steel bar and concrete, and C is the concrete
cover. The inner and outer radii of the thick-wall cylinder are
a = (D + 2d0)/2 and b = C + (D + 2d0)/2. When the steel bar
corrodes in concrete, its products (that is, rust, mainly
ferrous and ferric hydroxides, Fe(OH)2 and Fe(OH)3) fill the
pore band completely and a ring of corrosion products forms,
6 ACI Materials Journal/January-February 2008
Fig. 5Schematic representation of cracking process.
the thickness of which, ds(t) (Fig. 5(b)), can be determined
from (Liu and Weyers 1998)
W rust ( t ) 1 rust
d s ( t ) = --------------------------- ----------- ----------
- (11)
( D + 2d 0 ) rust st
where rust is a coefficient related to the type of corrosion
products, rust is the density of corrosion products, st is the
density of steel, and Wrust (t) is the mass of corrosion products.
Obviously, Wrust (t) increases with time and can be determined
from (Liu and Weyers 1998)
t 12
W rust ( t ) = 2 0.105 ( 1 rust )D i corr ( t )dt
(12)
0
where icorr (t) is the corrosion current density (in A/cm2),
which is a measure of the corrosion rate r0 (in mm/year)
(Fig. 1). Based on Faradays law (Bentur et al. 1997), r0 =
0.0116icorr ,where r0 is measured as the metal loss of steel
bars in a radial direction.
The growth of the ring of corrosion products (known as a
rust band) exerts an outward pressure on the concrete at the
interface between the rust band and concrete. Under this
expansive pressure, the concrete cylinder undergoes three
phases in the cracking process: 1) not cracked; 2) partially
cracked; and 3) completely cracked. In the Phase 1 (no
cracking), the concrete can be considered to be elastically
isotropic so that the theory of elasticity can be used to determine
the stress and strain distribution in the cylinder (Timoshenko
and Goodier 1970). For a partially cracked concrete cylinder,
cracks are considered to be smeared and the concrete to be a
quasi-brittle material, so that the stress and strain distribution
in the cylinder can be determined based on fracture mechanics
(Baant and Planas 1998; Pantazopoulou and Papoulia 2001).
When the crack penetrates to the concrete surface, the
concrete cylinder fractures completely. With known distribu-
tion of stress and strain, the crack width at the surface of the
concrete cylinder can be determined simply by the difference
e, m
w c = 2b [ ( b ) ( b ) ] (13)
where (b) is the tangential strain at the surface, that is,
at r = b (Fig. 5) and equal to (Li et al. 2006)
2d s b
( b ) = --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- (14)
( 1 c ) ( a b ) + ( 1 + c ) ( b a )
where c is Poissons ratio of concrete and (<1) is the
tangential stiffness reduction factor, which is to account for
 Table 1Values of basic variables used
in computation
Coefficient
Basic variable Symbol Mean of variation Source
Li (2003),
Steel content Ast 226 mm2 0.1
Mirza et al. (1979)
Width of beam Li (2003),
B 120 mm 0.1
section Mirza et al. (1979)
Li (2003),
Concrete cover C 31 mm 0.2
Mirza et al. (1979)
Equilibrium 0.306
Bamforth (1999),
surface Cs (percent of 0.2
Li (2002)
chloride content concrete weight)
Diameter of Li (2003),
D 12 mm 0.15
steel bar Mirza et al. (1979)
Fig. 6Probability of corrosion-induced cracking for
different acceptable limit wcr .
Diffusion 1.55
coefficient Dc 1011 m2/s 0.2
Bamforth (1999),
(uncracked Li (2002)
concrete) (1.34 mm2/day)
residual tangential stiffness of the cracked concrete and
Diffusion
related to the average tangential strain at the cracked surface coefficient
and concrete properties (Baant and Planas 1998; Li et al. (cracked D crc 43.89w2 0.2 Li (2003)
2006). In Eq. (13), e,m
(b) is the maximum elastic strain at
concrete)
r = b and equal to (Timoshenko and Goodier 1970) Thickness of d0 12.5 m
Liu and Weyers
pore band (1998)
Compressive Li (2003),
e, m ft strength of fc 57 MPa 0.14
(b) = ------
- (15) concrete
Mirza et al. (1979)
E ef
Tensile strength ft Li (2003),
5.725 MPa 0.2
of concrete Mirza et al. (1979)
where Eef is the effective elastic modulus of concrete. Thus, Yield strength fy 400 MPa 0.1
Li (2003),
the crack width can be expressed as of steel Mirza et al. (1979)
Height of beam H 200 mm 0.1 Li (2003),
section Mirza et al. (1979)
4d s 2bf Li (2003),
- -------------t
w c = -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (16) Corrosion icorr
0.3686ln(t) +
0.2 Vu and Stewart
E ef current density 1.1305 A/cm2
( 1 c ) ( a b ) + ( 1 + c ) ( b a ) (2002)
Effective Li (2003),
elastic modulus Eef 18.82 GPa 0.12
Mirza et al. (1979)
In Eq. (16), the key variables are the thickness of corrosion of concrete
products ds, which is directly related to the corrosion rate r0 Coefficient Liu and Weyers
(or icorr), and the stiffness reduction factor , which is related related to type rust 0.57
(1998)
of rust
to stress conditions and concrete property and geometry.
rust Liu and Weyers
Equation (16) has been verified by both numerical and Density of rust 3600 kg/m3
(1998)
experimental results (Li et al. 2006). Liu and Weyers
Density of steel st 7850 kg/m3
It needs to be noted that Eq. (16) represents a single crack. (1998)
Due to the random nature of crack occurrence, there may be Poissons ratio c 0.18 Li (2003)
more than one crack occurring either simultaneously or of concrete
within a short period of time. In this case, the assumption that Note: Random variables are assumed of normal distribution.
the crack width of all cracks is equal could be made (Li et al.
2006). Thus, Eq. (16) is still applicable but wc should be The time to corrosion-induced concrete cracking can be
divided equally by the number of cracks. In any event, determined for a given acceptable risk pc,a using Eq. (10).
Eq. (16) represents the maximum crack width on the surface For example, Fig. 6 shows that tc = 5.37 years for pc,a = 0.1.
of concrete.
Although a large number of variables can affect the corrosion
Limit for crack width wcrTo determine the probability of
process and hence the resulting concrete cracking, the
corrosion-induced cracking, a critical limit for the crack
corrosion rate (r0 or icorr) is usually the most significant
width needs to be established. In general, the acceptable
limit for crack width wcr is in the range of 0.1 to 0.5 mm factor (refer to the sensitivity analysis in Li et al. [2006]).
(0.004 to 0.02 in.), depending on exposure conditions Figure 7 shows the effects of corrosion rate (taken as a
(Andrade et al. 1993; Vu and Stewart 2002). Most design constant in the computation) on the probability of concrete
codes and standards, such as ACI 318-99 (ACI Committee cracking. For example, an increase of icorr from 1 to 10 A/cm2
318 1999) and British Standard BS 8110 (1997), however, can lead to the reduction of cracking time from approximately
prescribe the maximum permissible crack width to be 0.3 mm 8 years to 1year, given the same acceptance criterion, that
(0.012 in.) for concrete structures. With wcr = 0.03 mm is pc,a = 0.1. Interestingly, these results are consistent with
(0.0012 in.) and the values of other variables given in Table 1, practical experience and laboratory observations (Andrade
the probability of corrosion-induced concrete cracking can et al. 1993; Liu and Weyers 1998). As may be appreciated, in
be computed using Eq. (9) and a Monte Carlo simulation real structural assessment icorr can only be obtained from site-
method. The results are shown in Fig. 6 with different specific measurement on the structure to be assessed and is
acceptable limits for crack width. known to be subject to considerable uncertainty. The accuracy

ACI Materials Journal/January-February 2008 7


Fig. 7Effect of corrosion rate (icorr) on concrete cracking.
Fig. 8Probability of corrosion-induced loss of strength for
different acceptable limit Ra (as a percentage of R0).
with which it can be measured is therefore directly reflected in
the accuracy with which the serviceability and safety of
corrosion-affected concrete structures can be predicted. This
may vindicate the significance of developing a corrosion
model as proposed in Fig. 1.
CORROSION-INDUCED STRENGTH REDUCTION
Eventually, the steel corrosion in concrete will reduce the
cross-sectional area of the steel bar. As a result, the strength
of the cross section of the structural member is reduced,
perhaps leading to the final rupture of the structural member.
An estimate of the probability ps of corrosion-induced loss of
strength is as follows
ps ( t ) = P [ Rs ( t ) Ra ] (17)
where Rs(t) is the residual strength at a cross section of the
structural member at time t and Ra is a minimum acceptable
strength. Again, t is the time from corrosion initiation. For a
given acceptable probability for loss of strength ps,a , whenever
ps(ts) ps,a (18)
it is the time the structure loses its strength due to corrosion.
This is usually the end of service life for the structure based
on the criterion of safety or major strengthening is required.
Model for Rs(t)The residual sectional strength Rs(t) of a
concrete structural member can be expressed in terms of the
net area of the cross section of the reinforcing bar Anet(t), as
8 ACI Materials Journal/January-February 2008
Table 2Summary of each phase
of corrosion process
Time period with 90%
Phase confidence, years Relative to ts , %
Corrosion initiation (0, ti ) (0, 0.57) 4.76
Concrete cracking (ti , tc) (0.57, 5.94) 49.58
Loss of strength (tc , ts) (5.94, 11.98) 100
R s ( t ) = f [ A net ( E, t ) ] (19)
where the function f[ ] is provided in standard references for
reinforced concrete structures (Park and Paulay 1975) or
design codes (ACI Committee 318 1999). In Eq. (19), is
a coefficient to be determined from calibration against data
produced from direct loading tests (Li 2003), which will take
into account those aspects that have not been explicitly
considered in the model, such as debonding due to corrosion;
and E is a vector of factors affecting the cross-sectional area
reduction of the reinforcing bar, including concrete mixtures
(for example, w/c) and the environment (for example,
marine). The most significant overall factor is the corrosion
current density icorr (that is, corrosion rate r0).
Based on Faradays law and from the corrosion model of
Fig. 1, the net area of the reinforcing bar Anet(t) can be
expressed as
t 2
D 2 0.0116 i corr ( t )dt
A net ( t ) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 - (20)
4
Obviously, the coefficient is application dependent and
should be calibrated using data obtained from the structure to
be assessed. Herein, it is estimated that 0.85 from test
results produced on concrete beams (flexural failure) of
structurally significant size under simulated marine environment
(tidal and splash zones) (Li 2003). Other failure modes can
be incorporated once data are available.
Acceptable strength RaIt is very difficult to decide an
acceptable limit for loss of strength because the safety is of
paramount importance. It is not just a technical issue and
there is not much practical experience in this area either.
Gonzalez et al. (1996) observed that a damage level of 25%
in terms of the cross-sectional area reduction of steel bars
seemed to be prominent in corrosion-affected concrete
structures. This observation is based on the data from the
Euro-International Committee of Concrete (CEB) that
classifies structural deterioration according to the external
signs, such as rust spots, concrete cracks, cover delamination,
as well as cross section area reduction of steel bars. Gonzalez
et al. (1996) indicated that the acceptable limit depends on
the type of structure and its use. Amey et al. (1998) predicted
the service life of corrosion-affected concrete structures using
a more simplistic 30% of reinforcing bar area reduction as the
failure criterion. In this paper, Amey et al.s criterion will be
used as the strength limit, that is, for Ra = 0.7R0, where R0 is
the original strength of the intact structure and can be obtained
for a given cross section (width B and height H) and material
properties (for example, steel content Ast and yield strength fy
and concrete compressive strength fc).
With values of basic variables in Table 1, Fig. 8 shows the
probability of corrosion-induced loss of strength (measured
by flexural capacity) with different acceptable limits for
strength. As can be seen, the probability of loss of strength is
very sensitive to the acceptable limit. It is therefore essential
to determine an optimal acceptable limit based on a risk-cost
optimization for the structure (Thoft-Christensen and
Sorensen 1987), coupled with comprehensive field survey
on conditions of structural deterioration during its whole
service life (Amey et al. 1998; Gonzalez et al. 1996). Finally, the
time that a concrete structure becomes unsafe due to corrosion-
induced loss of strength can be determined for a given
acceptable risk. Again, different acceptance criteria will
result in different times for the structure to be unsafe. This is
the risk involved in decision making. To be consistent with
predictions for corrosion initiation and corrosion-induced
cracking, in which a 90% confidence level is used, the time
for the structure to be unsafe ts can be determined as follows
ps(ts) = 0.1 (21)
which results in ts = 11.41 years.
In summary, each phase of the corrosion process as
determined based on structural performance is shown in
Table 2. Because the values of those environment-dependent
parameters used in computation were taken from the data
produced from the tests carried out on flexural members (Li
2003), the results in Table 2 are, strictly speaking, only
applicable to concrete structures with (flexural) cracks.
The significance of the results, however, lies in the provision
of a complete picture for service life performance of corrosion-
affected concrete infrastructure. With this picture, each phase
of the service life of the structure can be determined in relative
terms. For example, for a given reliability of 90%, structural
deterioration as marked by corrosion initiation starts as early
as approximately 5% of the service life of concrete flexural
members in marine environments (without prior prevention
measures). After the structure deteriorates to such an extent
to become unserviceable due to concrete cracking (without
any interventions), there is some 50% of the service life
remaining before the structure finally becomes unsafe (loss
of strength) according to the criteria used herein.
The information in Table 2 could be of practical interest to
structural engineers, operators, and asset mangers of
concrete infrastructure concerned with decisions about
when, where, and what interventions (repairs, strengthening,
and/or rehabilitation) might be required and, more importantly,
how much longer can a deteriorated structure can last
without intervention at a certain stage.
The results in Table 2 may suggest that the serviceability
of corrosion-affected concrete structures (as measured by
cracking) deteriorates much faster than their strength. This
may explain why many concrete structures are seen as badly
deteriorated (for example, mass concrete spalling) but may
still be structurally adequate (Roberts et al. 2000).
CONCLUSION
The whole process of corrosion of steel reinforcement in
concrete structures and its effects on structural performance
over time can be estimated using the principles outlined in
this paper. The approach is based on practical criteria
including safety and serviceability as functions of time for
each phase of the corrosion process. Because of unresolved
uncertainties in the models and the data currently available,
the procedure relies on using stochastic methods. The results
for a typical example structure show that with 90% confidence
ACI Materials Journal/January-February 2008
structural deterioration as marked by corrosion initiation
starts as early as approximately 5% of the service life of
concrete infrastructure with cracks and located in marine
environments. Also, for the example considered, once a
concrete structure becomes unserviceable due to corrosion-
induced concrete cracking, there is still some 50% of the
service life remaining before it becomes structurally
unsafe. The methods presented have the potential to serve
as a rational guide for practitioners, operators, and asset
managers to make decisions with regard to repairs,
strengthening, and/or rehabilitation of corrosion-affected
concrete infrastructure.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Financial support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research
Council (Grant No. EP/E00444X/01) and the Royal Academy of Engineering
(Award No. 10177/93), and the Australian Research Council (Grant
No. LX0559653) is gratefully acknowledged.
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