Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Report
April 2017
Canadas Inflation-Control Strategy1
Inflation targeting and the economy year, and full updates of the Banks outlook, including
risks to the projection, are published four times per year
The Banks mandate is to conduct monetary policy to pro- in the Monetary Policy Report.
mote the economic and financial well-being of Canadians.
Canadas experience with inflation targeting since
1991 has shown that the best way to foster confidence
Inflation targeting is symmetric and flexible
in the value of money and to contribute to sustained Canadas inflation-targeting approach is symmetric,
economic growth, employment gains and improved which means that the Bank is equally concerned about
living standards is by keeping inflation low, stable and inflation rising above or falling below the 2 per cent target.
predictable. Canadas inflation-targeting framework is flexible.
In 2016, the Government and the Bank of Canada Typically, the Bank seeks to return inflation to target over
renewed Canadas inflation-control target for a further a horizon of six to eight quarters. However, the most
five-year period, ending 31 December 2021. The target, appropriate horizon for returning inflation to target will
as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), remains vary depending on the nature and persistence of the
at the 2 per cent midpoint of the control range of 1 to shocks buffeting the economy.
3 per cent.
Monitoring inflation
The monetary policy instrument In the short run, the prices of certain CPI components
The Bank carries out monetary policy through changes can be particularly volatile. These components, as well
in the target for the overnight rate of interest.2 These as changes in indirect taxes such as GST, can cause
changes are transmitted to the economy through their sizable fluctuations in CPI.
influence on market interest rates, domestic asset prices In setting monetary policy, the Bank seeks to look
and the exchange rate, which affect total demand for through such transitory movements in CPI inflation and
Canadian goods and services. The balance between focuses on a set of core inflation measures that better
this demand and the economys production capacity is, reflect the underlying trend of inflation. In this sense,
over time, the primary determinant of inflation pressures these measures act as an operational guide to help the
in the economy. Bank achieve the CPI inflation target. They are not a
Monetary policy actions take timeusually from six to replacement for CPI inflation.
eight quartersto work their way through the economy The Banks three preferred measures of core inflation
and have their full effect on inflation. For this reason, are CPI-trim, which excludes CPI components whose
monetary policy must be forward-looking. rates of change in a given month are the most extreme;
Consistent with its commitment to clear, transparent CPI-median, which corresponds to the price change
communications, the Bank regularly reports its perspec- located at the 50th percentile (in terms of basket weight)
tive on the forces at work on the economy and their of the distribution of price changes; and CPI-common,
implications for inflation. The Monetary Policy Report which uses a statistical procedure to track common
is a key element of this approach. Policy decisions are price changes across categories in the CPI basket.
typically announced on eight pre-set days during the
1 See Joint Statement of the Government of Canada and the Bank of Canada on the Renewal of the Inflation-Control Target (24 October 2016) and Renewal of the
Inflation-Control Target: Background InformationOctober 2016, which are both available on the Banks website.
2 When interest rates are at very low levels, the Bank has at its disposal a suite of extraordinary policy measures that could be used to provide additional monetary
stimulus and/or improve credit market conditions. The Framework for Conducting Monetary Policy at Low Interest Rates, available on the Banks website, describes
these measures and the principles guiding their use.
The Monetary Policy Report is available on the Bank of Canadas website at bankofcanada.ca.
For further information, contact: Telephone: 613-782-8111;
1-800-303-1282 (toll-free in North America)
Public Information Email: info@bankofcanada.ca; Website: bankofcanada.ca
Communications Department
Bank of Canada ISSN 1201-8783 (Print)
234 Wellington Street ISSN 1490-1234 (Online)
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0G9 Bank of Canada 2017
Monetary Policy Report
April 2017
Canadian Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Box 3: Key Inputs to the Base-Case Projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Recent developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Economic slack . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Box 4: A Comparison of the Recent Evolution of Canadian and
USLabour Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Potential output growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Economic outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Business investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Household spending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Inflation outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Global Economy
Recent data point to a somewhat stronger pickup in global economic
growth than had been expected at the time of the January Monetary Policy
Report. However, the considerable uncertainty noted in January, particularly
regarding US economic policy, continues to cloud the outlook. This uncer-
tainty is expected to persist as the possible changes under consideration,
notably in relation to fiscal and trade policies, would involve complex and
probably lengthy negotiations and changes to legislation (Box 1).
With inflation strengthening and the labour market nearing full employment,
the US Federal Reserve increased the federal funds rate by 25 basis points
in mid-March. Even with this step toward normalization, US monetary policy
remains accommodative. Financial conditions globally continue to support
growth.
Global economic growth is projected to increase from around 3 1/4 per cent
in 2017 to about 31/2 per cent over 201819 (Table 1), broadly unchanged
since January. This projection incorporates a slower track for global poten-
tial growth than previously assumed (Box 2). The uncertainty around US
trade policy is also now expected to dampen the pickup in trade and invest-
ment growth globally.
Box 1
(continued)
3
Global Economy
BANK OF CANADA Monetary Policy Report April 2017
Box 1 (continued)
If the restrictions are applied selectively to exports from Implications for Canada
certain countries, producers in other countries could benefit As noted in previous Reports, recent developments in some
from trade diversion, since their products would be rela- advanced economies, notably the United States, suggest
tively cheaper . But if such measures lower real incomes that more-restrictive trade policies are possible . The Banks
(both in the countries imposing the restrictions and in those base-case projection includes only the estimated impact of
directly aected), demand for the exports of other countries prolonged and elevated trade policy uncertainty on trade
would also be lower . and investment globally and in Canada . The scope and
To sum up, the nature and extent of the impact of increased magnitude of possible new US trade policy represents a
trade protectionism would ultimately depend on several fac- significant source of uncertainty . Such measures, if applied
tors, including the type of measures adopted, the industries to Canada, would have a direct adverse eect on exports .
or sectors targeted and whether its implementation triggers US measures targeted at other countries would have more
retaliatory actions . In a more adverse scenario, the negative complex eects on Canadian exports but would likely be
eects on global trade and growth could be further ampli- negative, given the dampening eects on global trade and
fied if protectionism caused a more generalized decline economic growth, particularly if they elicit retaliation from
in cross-border co-operation . Unlike the removal of trade other countries . Additional negative eects on productivity
barriers, the gains from Fileprotectionism
information would be insucient and potential growth are also possible should there be a
(for internal use only):
to compensate the individuals and businesses that lose . reversal of the process of globalizationparticularly the
Chart 1 - InflationDeviation_EN.indd unwinding of global value chains .
Last output: 04/10/17 - 04:10PM
% Percentage points
100 2
50 1
0 0
-50 -1
-100 -2
-150 -3
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Note: The aggregate deviation from inflation targets for advanced economies is calculated using GDP shares,
which are based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates of the purchasing-power-parity valuations of
GDPs of selected countries constituting 40 per cent of global GDP. Inflation targets are fixed using 2016 targets.
Sources: National sources via Haver Analytics, the IMF and
Bank of Canada calculations Last observation: February 2017
Box 2
110
105
100
95
90
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
2016 2017
CEERa CEER, excluding US$ Can$ vis--vis US$
a. The new Canadian effective exchange rate (CEER) is a weighted average of bilateral exchange rates
for the Canadian dollar against the currencies of Canadas major trading partners. A rise indicates
an appreciation of the Canadian dollar. Details of the new methodology can be found in R. Barnett,
K.Charbonneau, G. Poulin-Bellisle, A New Measure of the Canadian Effective Exchange Rate, Bank of
Canada Staff Discussion Paper No. 2016-1 (January 2016).
Source: Bank of Canada calculations Last observation: 7 April 2017
Chart 3: The US unemployment rate is falling and wage growth is rising as the labour market tightens
a. Unemployment and wage growth, quarterly data b. Indicators of labour market tightness, quarterly data
% % % %
10 4 35 6
30 5
8 3 25 4
20 3
6 2 15 2
10 1
4 1 5 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Unemployment Nominal average hourly earnings, year-over-year
File information Share of firms unable to fill empty Layoff and discharge rate
rate (left scale) percentage change
(for internal (right scale)
use only): positions (left scale) (right scale)
Chart 4 - Rates_EN.indd
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation Last observations: Unemployment, earnings and
Last output: 04/11/17 - 05:11PM
of Independent Business via Haver Analytics unfilled positions, 2017Q1; layoffs, 2016Q4
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Note: Historical rates reflect the three-month moving average of effective overnight rates. Expectations are
derived from overnight index swaps.
Sources: National sources via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations
tax cuts. Starting in 2019, expenditure cuts are now expected to modestly
dampen the amount of fiscal stimulus. These assumptions will continue to
be updated as the budgetary process unfolds.
With the labour market close to full employment and core inflation increasing,
markets expect several further increases in the federal funds rate in 2017 and
beyond (Chart4). This contrasts with other major economies such as the
euro area and Japan, where economic recoveries are not as advanced and
monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative for longer.
Global Economy
7
BANK OF CANADA Monetary Policy Report April 2017
Chart 5: OPEC production has fallen, but the shale oil rig count in the United States is rising
a. OPEC production, monthly data b. Brent and US shale oil rig counts, monthly data
100 1,000
39
38
75 750
37
50 500
36
35 25 250
2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017
OPEC total liquids production Brent (left scale) US shale oil rigsa (right scale)
a. Although this is an indicator of the number of shale oil rigs in the United States, it can include shale gas and some conventional rigs.
Note: OPEC refers to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Last observations: Production, February 2017;
Sources: International Energy Agency, Baker Hughes Inc. and Bank of Canada calculations Brent and US shale oil rigs, March 2017
Canadian Economy
9
BANK OF CANADA Monetary Policy Report April 2017
Canadian Economy
Economic growth in Canada in recent quarters has been stronger than
expected in the January Report, but the composition of aggregate demand
has been uneven. In the oil and gas sector, a resumption of growth in invest-
ment spending is under way in the wake of significant adjustments to past
declines in commodity prices. This contributed, together with very strong
consumption and residential investment, to a temporary surge in growth
in the first quarter. In contrast, non-commodity business investment and
exports remain weak, raising questions about the medium-term sustain-
ability of the upturn.
Over the forecast horizon, the Bank expects the economy to continue to
grow, but at a more moderate pace. Economic activity will be supported by
rising foreign demand, federal fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary
and financial conditions. In addition, the composition of demand growth is
expected to broaden: the pace of household expenditures, especially resi-
dential investment, moderates as the contributions from exports and busi-
ness investment increase, albeit at a much slower pace than would normally
be expected at this stage of the cycle. Ongoing competitiveness challenges
and uncertainty surrounding the prospects for global trade are expected to
limit this broadening of growth. A notable increase in global protectionism
remains the most important source of uncertainty facing the Canadian
economy.
Largely reflecting temporary strength at the start of the year, real GDP is
anticipated to expand by 2.6 per cent in 2017, before slowing to 1.9 per cent
in 2018 and 1.8 per cent in 2019 (Table 2 and Box 3). The Banks projection
for potential output growth has been revised down. The output gap is now
expected to close in the first half of 2018, somewhat sooner than projected
in January.
Relative price movements, especially higher consumer energy prices,
helped boost inflation in the first quarter of 2017, but their effect is expected
to be temporary. In contrast, the Banks preferred measures of core infla-
tion have drifted down in recent quarters and remain below 2 per cent,
consistent with material excess capacity in the Canadian economy. As in
January, the Bank expects CPI inflation to remain close to 2 per cent over
the projection horizon as the effects of the relative price movements dis-
sipate and excess supply is absorbed.
10
Canadian Economy
BANK OF CANADA Monetary Policy Report April 2017
Box 3
% Percentage points
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
-6 -6
2016 2017
GDP growth, quarterly, at annual Exports (right scale)
rates (left scale) Business fixed investment (right scale)
GDP growth estimate in January Consumption and housing (right scale)
Report, quarterly, at annual rates Government (right scale)
(left scale) Others (inventories and imports, right scale)
Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada estimates and calculations Last data plotted: 2017Q2
1 The 2017 federal budget confirmed that the total spending for infrastructure investment introduced in
the 2016 federal budget and the Fall Economic Statement remains unchanged, although some of the
spending allocation is delayed until the 201819 fiscal year.
12
Canadian Economy
BANK OF CANADA Monetary Policy Report April 2017
The estimate for economic activity in the first quarter of 2017 has been
revised up, to 3.8per cent from the 2.5 per cent expected in the January
Report (Table 3). GDP growth in the quarter increased partly because of
a resumption of investment growth in the oil and gas sector after a long
period of steep declines. Market intelligence suggests that this pace of
growth is unlikely to continue in the current price environment. Consumption
growth was also very strong, partially as a result of a temporary boost from
the Canada Child Benefit. As well, motor vehicle sales reached an all-time
high, a pace that is well above expected annual demand. Similarly, housing
activity rose sharply to a pace that is unlikely to be sustained given the
economic fundamentals. Given all of these factors as well as weak non-
commodity investment and exports, the Bank expects real GDP growth to
moderate to 2.5 per cent in the second quarter.
2 While the statistical and structural approaches are key inputs into the Banks assessment of potential
output, other models and sources of information are also taken into account. The Banks structural and
statistical estimates of the output gap can be found at Statistics > Indicators> Indicators of Capacity
and Inflation Pressures for Canada on the Banks website. For details on these approaches, see
L.Pichette, P. St-Amant, B. Tomlin and K. Anoma, Measuring Potential Output at the Bank of Canada:
The Extended Multivariate Filter and the Integrated Framework, Bank of Canada Discussion Paper
No.2015-1 (January 2015).
Canadian Economy
BANK OF CANADA Monetary Policy Report April 2017 13
File information
Box 4 (for internal use only):
Chart 4-A - C_US_unempl_EN.indd
Material slack remains in the Canadian labour market and Chart 4-A: In contrast to the United States, the unemployment
wage growth is subdued . In contrast, various indicators sug- rate in Canada has remained steady since 2014
gest the US labour market is now close to full employment, Per cent, monthly data
and wage growth has risen steadily since 2014.1 %
10
Start of oil
An important driver of this dierence is the collapse in price shock
oil and other commodity prices in mid-2014 . Lower com- 9
modity prices have had materially dierent impacts on the
Canadian and US economies, with Canada more adversely 8
1 For details, see D . Brouillette, K . Gribbin, J .-D . Gunette, J . Ketcheson, Sources: Statistics Canada, US Bureau
O . Kostyshyna, J . Lachaine and C . Scare, A CanadaUS Comparison of Labour of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics and
Market Conditions, Bank of Canada Sta Analytical Note No . 2017-4 (April 2017) . Bank of Canada calculations Last observation: March 2017
2 Due to methodological dierences, the levels of the unemployment rate in Canada
and in the United States are not exactly comparable . Applying the same method-
ology as in the United States would shift the whole profile down for Canada but
would not aect its dynamics .
3 Energy-intensive provinces are Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland
and Labrador . (continued)
14
Canadian Economy
BANK OF CANADA Monetary Policy Report April 2017 File information
(for internal use only):
Chart 4-C - can_us_labinc_EN.indd
worked since mid-2016 . The drivers for these dynamics Chart 4-C: Growth in unit labour costs has recently been
remain puzzling and further analysis is ongoing . weaker in Canada than in the United States
Year-over-year percentage change, business sector, quarterly data
Weaker labour market conditions in Canada relative to the %
United States are also evident in the diverging paths for 6
Start of oil -4
price shock
-6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Chart 7: Measures of core inflation have drifted down and are below 2 per cent
Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data
%
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada Last observation: February 2017
All the Banks measures of core inflation have drifted down in recent quar-
ters. Consistent with persistent economic slack, these measures all remain
below 2 per cent, although the range remains relatively widebetween
1.3and 1.9 per cent (Chart 7).3
3 For details on the divergence of the Banks core measures, see L. Schembri, Getting to the
Core of Inflation (speech to the Department of Economics, Western University, London, Ontario,
9 February 2017).
Canadian Economy
15
BANK OF CANADA Monetary Policy Report April 2017
Chart 8: Real GDP growth is projected to slow toward potential output growth
Annual data
%
4
-1
-2
-3
-4
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections
16
Canadian Economy
Chart 9 - ctg_gdp_scnc_EN.indd
BANK OF CANADA Monetary Policy
Last output: Report
04/11/17 April 2017
- 05:11PM
% Percentage points
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
-1 -1
-2 -2
2015 2016 2017
Growth in real GDP Goods, commodity-related industries (right scale)
atbasic prices (year- Goods, non-commodity-related industries (right scale)
over-year percentage Services (right scale)
change, left scale)
Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations Last observation: January 2017
Chart 10: The shares of exports and business investment in GDP are expected
toincrease marginally
Nominal share of GDP, annual data
% %
45 18
40 16
35 14
30 12
25 10
1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
4 This additional effect subtracts about 0.2 percentage points from Canadian export growth in both
2017 and 2018.
File information
(for internal use only):
18
Canadian Economy
Chart 11 - inv_range_EN.indd
BANK OF CANADA Monetary Policy
Last output: Report
04/11/17 April 2017
- 05:11PM
Chart 11: Some indicators of business sentiment have improved in recent quarters
but remain low
Quarterly data
% %
30 3
20 2
10 1
0 0
-10 -1
-20 -2
-30 -3
-40 -4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
a. Deviation from their historical averages and scaled by their standard deviations
Sources: Statistics Canada, The Conference Board of Canada, Last observations: Business
TheGandalf Group, Canadian Federation of Independent Business, investment, 2016Q4; range
IHS Markit, Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada, Export and average of selected
Development Canada, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations surveys, 2017Q1
Chart 12: Investment growth in the oil and gas sector is projected to turn from
a negative to a positive
Contribution to total business investment growth, annual data
% Percentage points
6 6
3 3
0 0
-3 -3
-6 -6
-9 -9
-12 -12
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada estimates, calculations and projections
Investment growth has been revised down from the January Report, since
the uncertainty about US trade policy is now projected to persist for longer
than previously assumed.5
5 This additional effect has led to a projected reduction in investment growth of about 0.5percentage
points in both 2017 and 2018.
20
Canadian Economy
BANK OF CANADA Monetary Policy Report April 2017
Chart 13: CPI inflation is expected to be close to 2 per cent over the projection
Contribution to the deviation of inflation from 2 per cent
% Percentage points
3.5 1.5
3.0 1.0
2.5 0.5
2.0 0.0
1.5 -0.5
1.0 -1.0
0.5 -1.5
0.0 -2.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
a. This also includes the effect on inflation of the divergence from the typical relationship between gasoline
andcrude oil prices, the introduction of the cap-and-trade plan in Ontario and the Alberta carbon levy.
b. From 2016Q4 to 2018Q2, on net, other factors mostly represent the expected impact of below-average
inflation in food products, which partly reflects improved crop supplies and intensified competition in the
retail food sector as well as the estimated impact of Ontarios Fair Hydro Plan on electricity prices.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada estimates, calculations and projections
6 By convention, the Bank assumes a constant exchange rate over the forecast horizon. Consequently,
there is no effect from changes in the exchange rate on inflation once the effects of past move-
ments have dissipated. The effect of commodity prices on inflation is positive but very small over
2018 and 2019 since oil prices are assumed to remain near their recent average levels throughout the
projection, while some non-energy commodity prices increase modestly.
Risks to the Inflation Outlook
21
BANK OF CANADA Monetary Policy Report April 2017
7 For more details, see A.Agopsowicz, B. Gueye, N. Kyui, Y. Park, M. Salameh and B. Tomlin, April 2017
Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada, Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note
No. 2017-5 (April 2017).
Risks to the Inflation Outlook
23
BANK OF CANADA Monetary Policy Report April 2017
Appendix: Reassessment of
Potential Output Growth
This appendix explains the results of the Banks annual TableA-1: Projected growth rate of potential output
reassessment of the outlook for potential output Year-over-year percentage changea, b
growth.8 Potential output growth is projected to pick 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
up from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020
Range for
(TableA-1). It can be divided into two components: 1.11.5 1.01.6 1.11.7 1.11.9 1.12.1
potential output
trend labour input (trend number of hours worked) and Midpoint
trend labour productivity (trend output per hour worked). 1.3 (1.5) 1.3 (1.5) 1.4 (1.5) 1.5 (1.6) 1.6 (1.6)
ofrange
Trend labour input growth will continue to slow gradually Trend labour
0.7 (0.7) 0.7 (0.6) 0.7 (0.5) 0.6 (0.5) 0.5 (0.4)
input
over the projection horizon, largely reflecting demo-
Trend labour
graphic forces (Chart A-1). Growth in the working-age File information
productivity
0.6 (0.8) 0.6 (1.0) 0.8 (1.1) 0.9 (1.1) 1.1 (1.2)
(for internal use only):
population is anticipated to decline as the population
a.Chart A-1 - labour_EN.indd
Numbers in parentheses are from the April 2016 Monetary Policy Report.
ages, despite a partial offset from strong immigration. b.Last output:may
Numbers 04/11/17 - 05:11PM
not add to total because of rounding.
In addition, the employment rate and average hours
worked are expected to continue to trend downward.
Chart A-1: Potential output growth is expected to pick up
Although todays older workers have higher labour
with a strengthening in trend labour productivity growth
market participation rates than previous cohorts, they Annual data
are still less likely to be employed than prime-age %
4
workers (those aged 25 to 54) and, when they are
employed, are likely to work fewer hours. In addition, the
composition of employed workers is shifting toward the
3
service sector, where the number of hours worked per
week tends to be lower.
Slow trend labour productivity growth weighs on poten- 2
tial output growth in the near term, reflecting both the
lagged effects of the declines in investment, especially
in the oil and gas sector (Chart A-1), and the displace- 1
ment of energy sector workers following the decline in
oil prices. Trend labour productivity growth is projected
to return to its historical average of around 1.2 per cent 0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
just beyond 2020, as investment gradually improves. Trend labour Trend labour Potential output
In particular, investment in machinery and equipment, productivity input growth
which is associated with stronger productivity growth, Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada estimates and projections
isexpected to pick up.
Over the near term, potential output growth is assumed Overall, it is more likely at this stage in the business
to be slightly weaker than expected in the Banks cycle that potential output growth would be in the upper
previous reassessment in April 2016 and reverts to a part of the range. Expanded capacity and stronger
similar growth rate by 2020. The downward revision is activity, for example, could further reduce long-term
explained by slower-than-anticipated trend labour pro- unemployment and underemployment in the labour
ductivity growth resulting from the unanticipated weak- market. The procyclical effects of increased investment
ness in business investment. This effect is, however, and employment creation could provide an additional
partially offset by a small upward revision to trend labour small boost to potential output growth relative to the
input growth, reflecting stronger immigration.9 base case. However, the size and timing of these effects
are highly uncertain.
The neutral nominal policy rate in Canada is estimated
to be 3 per cent (in a range of 2.5 to 3.5 per cent). The Another upside risk could arise from the Canada
estimate is 25 basis points lower than assumed in European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade
April2016 because of global factors and the downward Agreement or additional trade agreements in the future.
revision to the projection of potential output growth in A reduction in interprovincial trade barriers in line with
Canada. the recent announcement by federal and provincial
governments could also boost potential output. For
Estimates of potential output are imprecise because
example, lowering interprovincial trade costs would
of uncertainty about its components, for example,
affect productivity growth for key sectors that account
how productivity will evolve, which in turn depends on
for a large share of internal trade.
technological advances and various structural changes.
Productivity also depends on the level and composition Potential output growth could be weaker than projected
of future investment, which are difficult to predict. The if the shift toward protectionist global trade policies
range of estimates for potential output growth helps to materializes. Trade facilitates specialization and innova-
account for this uncertainty (TableA-1).10 tion. Canadian companies that trade internationally tend
to be the most productive. Measures that would restrict
9 The target for admission of immigrants has been increased from a range
of 260,000 to 285,000 in 2015 to 300,000 per year for 2016 and beyond. international trade would reduce productivity-enhancing
In addition, an express entry system was introduced in January 2015, and investment and growth in trend labour productivity.
subsequently widened, to speed up the processing of applications for
permanent residency through different programs. And on 9 March 2017,
the federal government announced a new initiative to help high-growth
Canadian companies attract specialized global talent by providing more
predictable, streamlined reviews and approvals for work permits.
10 Estimates of potential output growth become more uncertain over the
projection horizon (Table 2 on page 10). By the end of 2019, this zone of
uncertainty implies that the level of potential output could be as much as
1 per cent higher or lower than in the base case.