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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis for "License" and "Produce and Own" Alternatives
Using Base-Case Unit Assumptions
ASSUMPTIONS
Sales projections Units Pricing
U.S. sales 5,000 U.S. wholesale unit price $11.45
U.K., Ireland, Europe sales 2,000 Less distribution fee $9.05
Japan, New Zealand, Australia sales 1,000 U.K., Ireland, Europe price (euro) EUR 7.00
Canada sales 500 Euro/US$ exchange rate 1.224
Units sold by artist 1,500 U.K., Ireland, Europe price (US$) $8.57
Totalprojected sales (units) 10,000 Japan, NZ, Australia price (US$) $6.50
Canada price (US$) $7.00
Weighted average cost of capital 12% Unit price for artist-sold units $6.00
Distribution fee 21%
CASH FLOWS
Own
Years
0 1 2 3
Annual percentage sold 0% 75% 20% 5%
U.S. forecasted units sold 0 3,750 1,000 250
U.K., Ireland, Europe forecasted units sold 0 1,500 400 100
Japan, New Zealand, Australia forecasted units s 0 750 200 50
Canada forecasted units sold 0 375 100 25
Units sold by artist 0 1,125 300 75
WORKING CAPITAL
Own
Years
0 1 2 3
Assets
Inventory, incl. overage @... 30% $8,471 $3,980 $2,745 $2,295
Recoupables 26,000 16,756 14,291 13,675
$15,970
Recoupables
Production costs $20,000
Marketing & promotion (1/2) 6,000
Advance 0
Total $26,000
Marketing and promotion
Print advertising $3,000
Posters and photos 500
E-card mailings 1,000
Independent radio promoter 2,500
Retail placement 5,000
Total marketing & promo cost $12,000
License
Years
0 1 2 3
0% 75% 20% 5%
0 3,750 1,000 250
0 1,500 400 100
0 750 200 50
0 375 100 25
0 1,125 300 75
License $16,030
66.6%
License
Years
0 1 2 3
Assets
$8,471 $3,980 $2,745 $2,295
9,500 0 0 0
$2,295
Recoupables
Production costs $500
Marketing & promotion (1/2) 6,000
Advance 3,000
Total $9,500
COMPASS RECORDS
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis for "License" and "Produce and Own" Alternatives
Using Base-Case Percentage of Sales Assumptions
ASSUMPTIONS
Sales projections (units) Units % of total
U.S. sales 5,000 50%
U.K., Ireland, Europe sales 2,000 20%
Japan, New Zealand, Australia sales 1,000 10%
Canada sales 500 5%
Units sold by artist 1,500 15%
Totalprojected sales (units) 10,000 100%
CASH FLOWS
Own
Years
0 1
Annual % sold 0% 75%
US forecasted units sold 0 3,750
U.K., Ireland, Europe forecasted units sold 0 1,500
Japan, New Zealand, Australia forecasted units 0 750
Canada forecasted units 0 375
Units sold by artist 0 1,125
WORKING CAPITAL
Own
Years
0 1
Assets
Inventory, incl. overage @... 30% $8,471 $3,980
Recoupables $26,000 $16,756
Recoupables
Production costs $20,000
Marketing & promotion (1/2) $6,000
Advance $0
Total $26,000
License
Years
2 3 0 1
20% 5% 0% 75%
1,000 250 0 3,750
400 100 0 1,500
200 50 0 750
100 25 0 375
300 75 0 1,125
License $16,030
66.6%
License
Years
2 3 0 1
Assets
$2,745 $2,295 $8,471 $3,980
$14,291 $13,675 $9,500 $0
$15,970
Recoupables
Production costs
Marketing & promotion (1/2)
Advance
Total
License
IRR
-19%
-7% This Sensitivity analysis shows that "Produce and own" option is better if
6%
19%
32% However, License is better if they sell less than 15000 units. It is a safer o
42%
52%
60%
67%
73%
79%
85%
90%
95%
100%
104%
108%
112%
116%
146%
180%
eting and promotion
$3,000
s and photos 500
1,000
dio promoter 2,500
5,000
marketing & promo cost $12,000
2,000
er mail-out per unit $0.50
e and collateral per unit $2.00
ost for CD mail-out $5,000
2 3
20% 5%
1,000 250
400 100
200 50
100 25
300 75
$16,273 $4,068
$1,800 $450
$723 $181
$2,975 $744
$0
$0 $0
$2,295
$0 $0
$10,775 $399
($4,310) ($160)
$6,465 $239
$1,235 $450
$0 $0
$7,700 $2,984
2 3
$2,745 $2,295
$0 $0
$2,295
$500
$6,000
$3,000
$9,500
Produce and own" option is better if Compass records could sell more than 15000 units, thus making larger profits
less than 15000 units. It is a safer option with less risk and lesser payback period.
making larger profits