SIMULACIN PRONSTICA EN INGLS

ELKIN JAVIER CELORIO NARANJO

CENTRO DE LOGSTICA Y PROMOCIN ECOTURSTICA DEL MAGDALENA

(SENA)

GESTIN LOGSTICA 1017083

SANTA MARTA MAGDALENA

2016
SIMULACIN PRONSTICA EN INGLS

PRESENTADO POR:

ELKIN JAVIER CELORIO

PRESENTADO A:

GERSSON RAFAEL CELEDON

INSTRUCTOR

GESTION LOGISTICA

SENA

2016
 1. Elabore una simulacin pronostica de la demanda del producto o servicio segn su
proyecto de formacin. Tenga en cuenta los siguientes elementos:

Name of the company Ciamsa company

Main business area Sugar export
Seven steps to make a forecasting system:
Uses Ciamsa Company, used for forecasting
demand prediction offered products, in order
to improve increase the flow of said product
and preparing a suitable inventory.

Items refined sugar

Time horizon The forecast CIAMSA company will be
short-term (one year) which will be held
in periods 6 months to handle the
demand for a more accurate form and
medium (1 years) and long (3 years)
term to improve competitive imports.
Model Company Ciamsa use time series method to
predict the sales of the company and discover
the trends of customers.

Data gathering Ciamsa Company, makes a biannual

information products offered Preferred
requested to corroborate trends and
frequency of use in the international
market

Making Based on the above steps, Ciamsa

Validation and Implementation
company follows the prediction
procedure.
In Ciamsa Company, forecasts are made
twice a year, to ensure that the model
assumptions and the data is valid.
2. Grafique el pronstico y escriba las tendencias que tendr su producto o servicio a
corto, mediano y largo plazo.
The company is operating a short-term forecast six months. which it is seen in the chart that
had a demand for 480,000 units sold.
In the next period is forecast in June compared to last year a sale of 390,000 units annually
handled the sales forecast in the medium term.

In the chart above you can see the expected increase in demand on the basis of sales of the
semester at the same date from the beginning of this operation.

A forecast three years to know that project units sold in 2017 which is held in
balance according to the previous year is done. Staying in demand for 900
units.