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Dynamic Economics
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any
electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information
storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher.
This book was set in Palatino on 3B2 by Asco Typesetters, Hong Kong, and was
printed and bound in the United States of America.
Adda, Jerome.
Dynamic economics : quantitative methods and applications / Jerome Adda and
Russell Cooper.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-262-01201-4 (hc. : alk. paper)
1. Economics, Mathematical. 2. MacroeconomicsMathematical modes.
3. Econometric models. I. Cooper, Russell W., 1955 II. Title.
HB135.D935 2003
330 0 .01 0 5195dc21 2003042126
a` Lance Armstrong, notre maitre a` tous
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Contents
1 Overview 1
I Theory
3 Numerical Analysis 33
3.1 Overview 33
3.2 Stochastic Cake-Eating Problem 34
3.2.1 Value Function Iterations 34
3.2.2 Policy Function Iterations 40
3.2.3 Projection Methods 41
3.3 Stochastic Discrete Cake-Eating Problem 46
3.3.1 Value Function Iterations 47
viii Contents
4 Econometrics 61
4.1 Overview 61
4.2 Some Illustrative Examples 61
4.2.1 Coin Flipping 61
4.2.2 Supply and Demand Revisited 74
4.3 Estimation Methods and Asymptotic Properties 79
4.3.1 Generalized Method of Moments 80
4.3.2 Maximum Likelihood 83
4.3.3 Simulation-Based Methods 85
4.4 Conclusion 97
II Applications
6 Consumption 139
6.1 Overview and Motivation 139
6.2 Two-Period Problem 139
6.2.1 Basic Problem 140
6.2.2 Stochastic Income 143
6.2.3 Portfolio Choice 145
6.2.4 Borrowing Restrictions 146
6.3 Innite Horizon Formulation: Theory and Empirical
Evidence 147
6.3.1 Bellmans Equation for the Innite Horizon
Problem 147
6.3.2 Stochastic Income 148
6.3.3 Stochastic Returns: Portfolio Choice 150
6.3.4 Endogenous Labor Supply 153
6.3.5 Borrowing Constraints 156
6.3.6 Consumption over the Life Cycle 160
6.4 Conclusion 164
8 Investment 187
8.1 Overview and Motivation 187
8.2 General Problem 188
x Contents
Bibliography 265
Index 275
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Dynamic Economics
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1 Overview
1. This exercise is described in some detail in the chapter on consumer durables in this
book.
Overview 3
2.1 Overview
2.2.1 Consumers
subject to pc I;
1. Assume that there are J commodities in this economy. This presentation assumes
that you understand the conditions under which this optimization problem has a
solution and when that solution can be characterized by rst-order conditions.
8 Chapter 2
uj c
l for j 1; 2; . . . ; J;
pj
2.2.2 Firms
prices, the product price p, and the stock of capital k. Both the exi-
ble and xed factors can be vectors.
Think of Pw; p; k as an indirect prot function. It completely
summarizes the value of the optimization problem of the rm given
w; p; k.
As with the households problem, given Pw; p; k, we can directly
compute the marginal value of allowing the rm some additional
capital as Pk w; p; k p fk l; k without knowing how the rm will
adjust its labor input in response to the additional capital.
But, is this all there is to know about the rms behavior? Surely
not, for we have not specied where k comes from. So the rms
problem is essentially dynamic, though the demand for some of
its inputs can be taken as a static optimization problem. These are
important themes in the theory of factor demand, and we will return
to them in our rm applications.
X
T
b t1 uct ;
t1
Wt1 Wt ct 2:1
2. For a very complete treatment of the nite horizon problem with uncertainty, see
Bertsekas (1976).
10 Chapter 2
X
T
max bt1 uct 2:2
fct g1T ; fWt g2T1 t1
X
T
ct WT1 W1 : 2:3
t1
and
l f;
3. Throughout, the notation fxt g1T is used to dene the sequence x1 ; x2 ; . . . ; xT for
some variable x.
4. This comes from the Weierstrass theorem. See Bertsekas (1976, app. B) or Stokey
and Lucas (1989, ch. 3) for a discussion.
Theory of Dynamic Programming 11
u 0 ct b 2 u 0 ct2
so that the two-period deviation from the candidate solution will not
increase utility.
As long as the problem is nite, the fact that the Euler equation
holds across all adjacent periods implies that any nite deviations
from a candidate solution that satises the Euler equations will not
increase utility.
Is this enough? Not quite. Imagine a candidate solution that sat-
ises all of the Euler equations but has the property that WT > cT so
that there is cake left over. This is clearly an inefcient plan: satisfy-
ing the Euler equations is necessary but not sufcient. The optimal
solution will satisfy the Euler equation for each period until the
agent consumes the entire cake.
Formally, this involves showing that the nonnegativity constraint
on WT1 must bind. In fact, this constraint is binding in the solution
12 Chapter 2
It doesnt matter when the extra cake is eaten given that the con-
sumer is acting optimally. This is analogous to the point raised
above about the effect on utility of an increase in income in the con-
sumer choice problem with multiple goods.
where
W1 W0 c 0 ; W0 given:
In this formulation the choice of consumption in period 0 determines
the size of the cake that will be available starting in period 1, W1 .
Now, instead of choosing a sequence of consumption levels, we just
nd c0 . Once c0 and thus W1 are determined, the value of the prob-
lem from then on is given by VT W1 . This function completely
summarizes optimal behavior from period 1 onward. For the pur-
poses of the dynamic programming problem, it does not matter how
the cake will be consumed after the initial period. All that is impor-
tant is that the agent will be acting optimally and thus generating
utility given by VT W1 . This is the principle of optimality, due to
Richard Bellman, at work. With this knowledge, an optimal decision
can be made regarding consumption in period 0.
Note that the rst-order condition (assuming that VT W1 is dif-
ferentiable) is given by
u 0 c0 bVT0 W1
so that the marginal gain from reducing consumption a little in
period 0 is summarized by the derivative of the value function. As
noted in the earlier discussion of the T-period sequence problem,
VT0 W1 u 0 c1 b t u 0 ct1
cal to that of the sequence approach.5 This is clearly true for this
problem: the set of rst-order conditions for the two problems are
identical, and thus, given the strict concavity of the uc functions,
the solutions will be identical as well.
The apparent ease of this approach, however, may be misleading.
We were able to make the problem look simple by pretending that
we actually know VT W1 . Of course, the way we could solve for this
is by either tackling the sequence problem directly or building it
recursively, starting from an initial single-period problem.
On this recursive approach, we could start with the single-
period problem implying V1 W1 . We would then solve (2.5) to build
V2 W1 . Given this function, we could move to a solution of the
T 3 problem and proceed iteratively, using (2.5) to build VT W1
for any T.
Example
We illustrate the construction of the value function in a specic
example. Assume uc lnc. Suppose that T 1. Then V1 W1
lnW1 .
For T 2, the rst-order condition from (2.2) is
1 b
;
c1 c2
W1 bW1
c1 and c2 :
1b 1b
From this, we can solve for the value of the two-period problem:
V2 W1 lnc1 b lnc2 A2 B2 lnW1 ; 2:6
where A2 and B2 are constants associated with the two-period prob-
lem. These constants are given by
1 b
A2 ln b ln ; B2 1 b:
1b 1b
5. By the sequence approach, we mean solving the problem using the direct approach
outlined in the previous section.
Theory of Dynamic Programming 15
Importantly, (2.6) does not include the max operator as we are sub-
stituting the optimal decisions in the construction of the value func-
tion, V2 W1 .
Using this function, the T 3 problem can then be written as
V3 W1 max lnW1 W2 bV2 W2 ;
W2
where the choice variable is the state in the subsequent period. The
rst-order condition is
1
bV20 W2 :
c1
1 B2 b
b :
c1 W2 c 2
1 b
:
c2 c3
W1 bW1 b 2 W1
c1 ; c2 ; c3 :
1 b b2 1 b b2 1 b b2
Substituting into V3 W1 yields
V3 W1 A3 B3 lnW1 ;
where
1 b 2 b2
A3 ln b ln b ln ;
1 b b2 1 b b2 1 b b2
B3 1 b b 2 :
This solution can be veried from a direct attack on the three-period
problem using (2.2) and (2.3).
16 Chapter 2
Basic Structure
Suppose that for the cake-eating problem, we allow the horizon to
go to innity. As before, one can consider solving the innite hori-
zon sequence problem given by
X
y
max b t uct
fct g1 ; fWt gy
y
2 t1
Wt1 Wt ct for t 1; 2; . . . :
In specifying this as a dynamic programming problem, we write
u 0 c bV 0 W 0 :
This may look simple, but what is the derivative of the value func-
tion? It is particularly hard to answer this, since we do not know
VW. However, we can use the fact that VW satises (2.7) for all
W to calculate V 0 . Assuming that this value function is differentiable,
we have
V 0 W u 0 c;
a result we have seen before. Since this holds for all W, it will hold in
the following period, yielding
V 0 W 0 u 0 c 0 :
Substitution leads to the familar Euler equation:
u 0 c bu 0 c 0 :
The solution to the cake-eating problem will satisfy this necessary
condition for all W.
The link from the level of consumption and next periods cake (the
controls from the different formulations) to the size of the cake (the
state) is given by the policy function:
c fW; W 0 jW 1 W fW:
Substituting these values into the Euler equation reduces the prob-
lem to these policy functions alone:
u 0 fW bu 0 fW fW for all W:
The policy functions above are important in applied research,
for they provide the mapping from the state to actions. When ele-
ments of the state as well as the action are observable, these policy
functions will provide the means for estimating the underlying
parameters.
An Example
In general, it is not actually possible to nd closed form solutions
for the value function and the resulting policy functions. So we try to
characterize certain properties of the solution, and for some cases,
we solve these problems numerically.
Nevertheless, as indicated by our analysis of nite horizon prob-
lems, there are some specications of the utility function that allow
us to nd a closed form solution to the value function. Suppose, as
Theory of Dynamic Programming 19
A B lnW max
0
lnW W 0 bA B lnW 0 for all W:
W
2:8
After some algebra, the rst-order condition becomes
bB
W 0 jW W:
1 bB
Collecting the terms that multiply lnW and using the requirement
that the functional equation holds for all W, we nd that
1
B
1b
is required for a solution. After this, the expression can also be used
to solve for A. Thus we have veried that our guess is a solution to
the functional equation. We know that because we can solve for
A; B such that the functional equation holds for all W using the
optimal consumption and savings decision rules.
With this solution, we know that
c W1 b; W 0 bW:
X
T
BT b t1 :
t1
euc;
where e is a random variable whose properties we will describe
below. The function uc is again assumed to be strictly increasing
7. To be careful, here we are adding shocks that take values in a nite and thus
countable set. See the discussion in Bertsekas (1976, sec. 2.1) for an introduction to the
complexities of the problem with more general statements of uncertainty.
Theory of Dynamic Programming 21
plh 1 Probe 0 eh j e el ;
where e 0 refers to the future value of e. Clearly, pih pil 1 for
i h; l. Let P be a 2 2 matrix with a typical element pij that
summarizes the information about the probability of moving across
states. This matrix is logically called a transition matrix.
With this notation and structure, we can turn again to the cake-
eating problem. We need to carefully dene the state of the system
for the optimizing agent. In the nonstochastic problem, the state was
simply the size of the cake. This provided all the information the
agent needed to make a choice. When taste shocks are introduced,
the agent needs to take this factor into account as well. We know
that the taste shocks provide information about current payoffs and,
through the P matrix, are informative about the future value of the
taste shock as well.10
8. For more details on Markov chains, we refer the reader to Ljungqvist and Sargent
(2000).
9. The evolution can also depend on the control of the previous period. Note too that
by appropriate rewriting of the state space, richer specications of uncertainty can be
encompassed.
10. This is a point that we return to below in our discussion of the capital accumula-
tion problem.
22 Chapter 2
VW; e max
0
euW W 0 bEe 0 j e VW 0 ; e 0 for all W; e;
W
eu 0 W W 0 bEe 0 j e e 0 u 0 W 0 W 00 : 2:9
This, of course, is the stochastic Euler equation for this problem.
The optimal policy function is given by
W 0 jW; e:
The properties of the policy function can then be deduced from this
condition. Clearly, both e 0 and c 0 depend on the realized value of e
so that the expectation on the right side of (2.9) cannot be split into
two separate pieces.
V E W; e euW
and
V N W bEe 0 j e VrW; e 0 ;
where
sufciently close to 1, then it is likely that tastes will switch from low
to high. Thus it will be optimal not to eat the cake in state W; el .13
Here are some additional exercises.
st1 tst ; ct :
So, given the current state and the current control, the state vector
for the subsequent period is determined.
Note that the state vector has a very important property: it
completely summarizes all of the information from the past that is
needed to make a forward-looking decision. While preferences and
the transition equation are certainly dependent on the past, this
dependence is represented by st : other variables from the past do
not affect current payoffs or constraints and thus cannot inuence
current decisions. This may seem restrictive but it is not: the vector
st may include many variables so that the dependence of current
choices on the past can be quite rich.
While the state vector is effectively determined by preferences and
the transition equation, the researcher has some latitude in choosing
the control vector. That is, there may be multiple ways of represent-
ing the same problem with alternative specications of the control
variables.
We assume that c A C and s A S. In some cases the control is
restricted to be in a subset of C that depends on the state vector:
c A Cs. Further we assume that s~s; c is bounded for s; c A S C.15
For the cake-eating problem described above, the state of the sys-
tem was the size of the current cake Wt and the control variable
was the level of consumption in period t, ct . The transition equation
describing the evolution of the cake was given by
Wt1 Wt ct :
Clearly, the evolution of the cake is governed by the amount of
current consumption. An equivalent representation, as expressed in
(2.7), is to consider the future size of the cake as the control variable
and then to simply write current consumption as Wt1 Wt .
There are two nal properties of the agents dynamic optimization
problem worth specifying: stationarity and discounting. Note that
neither the payoff nor the transition equations depend explicitly on
time. True the problem is dynamic, but time per se is not of the
essence. In a given state the optimal choice of the agent will be the
same regardless of when he optimizes. Stationarity is important
15. Ensuring that the problem is bounded is an issue in some economic applications,
such as the growth model. Often these problems are dealt with by bounding the sets C
and S.
26 Chapter 2
both for the analysis of the optimization problem and for empirical
implementation of innite horizon problems. In fact, because of sta-
tionarity, we can dispense with time subscripts as the problem is
completely summarized by the current values of the state variables.
The agents preferences are also dependent on the rate at which
the future is discounted. Let b denote the discount factor and assume
that 0 < b < 1. Then we can represent the agents payoffs over the
innite horizon as
X
ty
b t s~st ; ct : 2:10
t0
Vs max
0
ss; s 0 bVs 0 for all s A S: 2:12
s A Gs
This is a more compact formulation, and we will use it for our pre-
sentation.16 Nonetheless, the presentations in Bertsekas (1976) and
Sargent (1987) follow (2.11). Assume that S is a convex subset of < k .
Let the policy function that determines the optimal value of the
control (the future state) given the state be given by s 0 fs. Our
interest is ultimately in the policy function, since we generally
observe the actions of agents rather than their levels of utility. Still,
to determine fs, we need to solve (2.12). That is, we need to nd
the value function that satises (2.12). It is important to realize that
while the payoff and transition equations are primitive objects that
16. Essentially this formulation inverts the transition equation and substitutes for c in
the objective function. This substitution is reected in the alternative notation for the
return function.
Theory of Dynamic Programming 27
17. Some of the applications explored in this book will not exactly t these conditions
either. In those cases we will alert the reader and discuss the conditions under which
there exists a solution to the functional equation.
18. The notation dates back at least to Bertsekas (1976).
28 Chapter 2
19. See Stokey and Lucas (1989) for a statement and proof of this theorem.
20. Dene ss; s 0 as concave if sls1 ; s10 1 ls2 ; s20 b lss1 ; s10 1 lss2 ; s20
for all 0 < l < 1 where the inequality is strict if s1 0 s2 .
Theory of Dynamic Programming 29
observe all of the variables that inuence the agent, and/or there
may be measurement error. Nonetheless, being explicit about the
source of error in empirical applications is part of the strength of this
approach.
While stochastic elements can be added in many ways to dynamic
programming problems, we consider the following formulation in
our applications. Let e represent the current value of a vector of
shocks, namely random variables that are partially determined by
nature. Let e A C be a nite set.21 Then, by the notation developed
above, the functional equation becomes
which is just the likelihood that ej occurs in the next period, given
that ei occurs today. Thus this transition matrix is used to compute
the transition probabilities in (2.13). Throughout we assume that
P
pij A 0; 1 and j pij 1 for each i. By this structure, we have
theorem 3 If ss; s 0 ; e is real-valued, continuous, concave, and
bounded, 0 < b < 1, and the constraint set is compact and convex,
then
21. As noted earlier, this structure is stronger than necessary but accords with the
approach we will take in our empirical implementation. The results reported in Bert-
sekas (1976) require that C is countable.
Theory of Dynamic Programming 31
This Euler equation has the usual interpretation: the expected sum of
the effects of a marginal variation in the control in the current period
s must be zero. So, if there is a marginal gain in the current period,
this gain, in the expectation, is offset by a marginal loss in the next
period. Put differently, if a policy is optimal, there should be no
variation in the value of the current control that will, in the expecta-
tion, make the agent better off. Of course, ex post (after the realiza-
tion of e 0 ), there could have been better decisions for the agent and,
from the vantage point of hindsight, evidence that mistakes were
made. That is to say,
ss 0 s; s 0 ; e bss 0 s 0 ; s 00 ; e 0 0 2:16
will surely not hold for all realizations of e 0 . Yet, from the ex ante
optimization, we know that these ex post errors were not predicable
given the information available to the agent. As we will see, this
powerful insight underlies the estimation of models based on a sto-
chastic Euler equation such as (2.15).
2.6 Conclusion
This chapter has introduced some of the insights in the vast litera-
ture on dynamic programming and some of the results that will be
useful in our applications. This chapter has provided a theoretical
structure for the dynamic optimization problems we will confront
throughout this book. Of course, other versions of the results hold in
more general circumstances. The reader is urged to study Bertsekas
(1976), Sargent (1987), and Stokey and Lucas (1989) for a more com-
plete treatment of this topic.
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3 Numerical Analysis
3.1 Overview
with X 0 RX c y 0 .
If the endowment is serially correlated, then the agent has to keep
track of any variables that allow him to forecast future endowment.
The state space will include X but also current and maybe past real-
izations of endowments. We present such a case in section 3.3 where
we study a discrete cake eating problem. Chapter 6.1 also presents
the continuous cake-eating problem with serially correlated shocks.
The control variable is c, the level of current consumption. The size
of the cake evolves from one period to the next according to the
transition equation. The goal is to evaluate the value VX as well as
the policy function for consumption, cX.
This method works from the Bellman equation to compute the value
function by backward iterations on an initial guess. While sometimes
slower than competing methods, it is trustworthy in that it reects
the result, stated in chapter 2, that (under certain conditions) the
solution of the Bellman equation can be reached by iterating the
value function starting from an arbitrary initial value. We illustrate
this approach here in solving (3.2).1
1. We present additional code for this approach in the context of the nonstochastic
growth model presented in chapter 5.
Numerical Analysis 35
c 1g
uc :
1g
For this problem it turns out that the natural state space is given
by XL ; XH . This choice of the state space is based on the economics
of the problem, which will be understood more completely after
studying household consumption choices. Imagine, though, that
endowment is constant at a level yi for i L; H. Then, given the
assumption bR 1, the cake level of the household will (trust us)
eventually settle down to Xi for i L; H. Since the endowment is
stochastic and not constant, consumption and the size of the future
cake will vary with realizations of the state variable X, but it turns
out that X will never leave this interval.
The neness of the grid is simply a matter of choice too. In the
program let ns be the number of elements in the state space. The
program simply partitions the interval XL ; XH into ns elements. In
practice, the grid is usually uniform, with the distance between two
consecutive elements being constant.2
Call the state space CS , and let is be an index:
CS fX is gins 1
s
with X 1 XL ; X ns XH :
The control variable c takes values in XL ; XH . These are the extreme
levels of consumption given the state space for X. We discretize this
space into a grid of size nc , and call the control space CC fc ic ginc 1
c
.
2. In some applications it can be useful to dene a grid that is not uniformally spaced;
see the discrete cake-eating problem in section 3.3.
Numerical Analysis 37
The iterations are stopped when jvj1 X vj Xj < e for all is , where
e is a small number. As T: is a contraction mapping (see chapter 2),
the initial guess v0 X does not inuence the convergence to the xed
point, so one can choose v0 X 0, for instance. However, nding
a good guess for v0 X helps to decrease the computing time. By the
contraction mapping property, we know that the convergence rate is
geometric, parameterized by the discount rate b.
Let us review in more detail how the iteration is done in practice.
At each iteration, the values vj X are stored in a ns 1 matrix:
2 3
vj X 1
6 7
6 .. 7
6 . 7
6 7
6 v X is 7
V6 j 7:
6 7
6 .. 7
6 . 7
4 5
ns
vj X
i_s=1
do until i_s>n_s * Loop over all sizes of the
total amount of cake X *
c_L=X_L * Min value for consumption *
c_H=X[i_s] * Max value for consumption *
i_c=1
do until i_c>n_c * Loop over all consumption
levels *
c=c_L+(c_H-c_L)/n_c*(i_c-1)
i_y=1
EnextV=0 * Initialize the next value
to zero *
do until i_y>n_y * Loop over all possible
realizations of the future
endowment *
nextX=R*(X[i_s]-c)+Y[i_y] * Next period amount of
cake *
nextV=V(nextX) * Here we use interpolation
to find the next value
function *
Figure 3.1
Stochastic cake-eating problem
Numerical Analysis 39
Figure 3.2
Value function, stochastic cake-eating problem
Figure 3.3
Policy function, stochastic cake-eating problem
" #
X
c1 X arg max uc b pi V0 RX c yi for all X:
c
iL; H
or
FcX 0: 3:5
X
n
c^X; C ci pi X:
i1
hFc^X; C; f Xi 0;
where f X is some known function. We next review three methods
that differ in their choice for this function f X.
First, a simple choice for f X is F^cX; C itself. This denes the
least square metric as
min hFc^X; C; dX Xi i; i 1; . . . ; n;
C
Collocation Methods
Judd (1992) presents in some detail this method applied to the
growth model. The function cX is approximated using Chebyshev
polynomials. These polynomials are dened on the interval 0; 1 and
take the form
pi X cosi arccosX; X A 0; 1; i 0; 1; 2; . . . :
i_s=1
do until i_s>n_s * Loop over all sizes of the
total amount of cake *
utoday=U 0 (c(X[i_s])) * Marginal utility of
consuming *
ucorner=U 0 (X[i_s]) * Marginal utility if corner
solution *
EnextU=0 * Initialize expected future
i_y=1 marginal utility *
do until i_y>n_y * Loop over all possible
realizations of the future
endowment *
nextX=R(X[i_s]- * Next amount of cake *
c(X[i_s]))+Y[i_y]
nextU=U 0 (c(nextX)) * Next marginal utility of
consumption *
EnextU=EnextU+nextU*Pi[i_y] * Here we compute the expected
future marginal utility of
consumption using the
transition matrix Pi *
i_y=i_y+1
endo * End of loop over endowment *
F[i_s]=utoday-
max(ucorner,beta*EnextU)
i_s=i_s+1
endo * End of loop over size of
cake *
Figure 3.4
Stochastic cake-eating problem, projection method
X
n
c^X; C ci pi X:
i1
Figure 3.5
Basis functions, nite element method
As before, we have to dene, rst, the functional form for the utility
function, and we need to discretize the state space. We will consider
r < 1, so the cake shrinks with time and W is naturally bounded
between W, the initial size and 0. In this case the size of the cake
takes only values equal to r t W, t b 0. Hence CS fr i Wg is a judi-
cious choice for the state space. Contrary to an equally spaced grid,
this choice ensures that we do not need to interpolate the value
function outside of the grid points.
Next, we need to discretize the second state variable, e. The shock
is supposed to come from a continuous distribution, and it follows
an autoregressive process of order one. We discretize e in I points
I
fei gi1 following a technique presented by Tauchen (1986) and sum-
marized in the appendix. In fact we approximate an autoregressive
process by a Markov chain. The method determines the optimal dis-
I
crete points fei gi1 and the transition matrix pij Probet ei jet1
ej such that the Markov chain mimics the AR(1) process. Of course,
the approximation is only good if I is big enough.
In the case where I 2, we have to determine two grid points eL
and eH . The probability that a shock eL is followed by a shock eH is
denoted by pLH . The probability of transitions can be stacked in a
transition matrix:
pLL pLH
p
pHL pHH
i_s=2
do until i_s>n_s * Loop over all sizes of the
cake *
i_e=1
do until i_e>2 * Loop over all possible
realizations of the taste shock
*
ueat=u(W[i_s],e[i_e]) * Utility of doing the eating now
*
nextV1=V[i_s-1,1] * Next period value if low taste
shock *
nextV2=V[i_s-1,2] * Next period value if high taste
shock *
EnextV=nextV1*p[i_e,1]+
nextV2*p[i_e,2]
newV[i_s,i_e]
=max(ueat,beta*EnextV)
* Take the max between eating now
or waiting *
i_e=i_e+1
endo * End of loop over taste shock *
i_s=i_s+1
endo * End of loop over size of cake *
V=newV * Update the new value function *
Figure 3.6
Discrete cake-eating problem
Figure 3.7
Value function, discrete cake-eating problem
Figure 3.8
Decision rule, discrete cake-eating problem
The two examples we have studied in sections 3.2 and 3.3 have small
state spaces. In empirical applications the state space often needs to
be much larger if the model is to confront real data. For instance, the
endowment shocks might be serially correlated or the interest rate R
might also be a stochastic and persistent process.
For the value function iteration method, this means that the suc-
cessive value functions have to be stacked in a multidimensional
matrix. Also the value function has to be interpolated in several
dimensions. The techniques in the appendix can be extended to deal
Numerical Analysis 51
j
The problem is then characterized by auxiliary parameters fci g.
Figure 3.9
Approximation methods
Linear Interpolation
This method ts the function f with piecewise linear functions on
the intervals xi1 ; x i . For any value of x in xi1 ; x i , an approxima-
54 Chapter 3
fi fi1
f^x fi1 x xi1 :
x i xi1
Spline Methods
This method extends the linear interpolation by tting piecewise
polynomials while ensuring that the resulting approximate func-
tion f^ is both continuous and differentiable at the grid points x i . We
restrict ourself to cubic splines for simplicity, but the literature on
splines is very large (e.g., see De Boor 1978). The approximate func-
tion is expressed as
f^i x f^i1 x;
f^i0 x f^i1
0
x;
f^i00 x f^i1
00
x:
It is also common practice to apply f^100 x1 f^I00 xI 0. With these
constraints, the number of coefcients to compute is down to I. Some
Numerical Analysis 55
algebra gives
8
>
> fi fi1
> ai
> bi x i xi1 ci x i xi1 2 ; i 1; . . . ; I;
>
> x i x i1
>
>
>
>
>
> b bi
>
<ci i1 ; i 1; . . . ; I 1;
3x i xi1
>
>
>
> bI
>
> cI ;
>
>
>
> 3xI xI1
>
>
>
:
ai 2bi x i xi1 3ci x i xi1 2 ai1 :
Quadrature Methods
There are a number of quadrature methods. We briey detail the
Gauss-Legendre method (more detailed information can be found in
Press et al. 1986). The integral of a function f is approximated as
1
f x dx F w1 f x1 wn f xn ; 3:8
1
change of the integration variable. The weights and the nodes are
computed such that (3.8) is exactly satised for polynomials of
degree 2n 1 or less. For instance, if n 2, denote fi x x i1 , i
1; . . . ; 4. The weights and nodes satisfy
1
w1 f1 x1 w2 f1 x2 f1 x dx;
1
1
w1 f2 x1 w2 f2 x2 f2 x dx;
1
1
w1 f3 x1 w2 f3 x2 f3 x dx;
1
1
w1 f4 x1 w2 f4 x2 f4 x dx:
1
Figure 3.10
Example of discretization, N 3
et m1 r ret1 ut ; 3:9
where ut is a normally distributed shock with variance s 2 . To dis-
cretize this process, we need to determine three different objects.
First, we need to discretize the process et into N intervals. Second,
we need to compute the conditional mean of et within each intervals,
which we denote by z i , i; . . . ; N. Third, we need to compute the
probability of transition between any of these intervals, pi; j . Figure
3.10 shows the plot of the distribution of e and the cut-off points e i as
well as the conditional means z i .
We start by discretizing the real line into N intervals, dened by
the limits e 1 ; . . . ; e N1 . As the process et is unbounded, e 1 y
and e N1 y. The intervals are constructed such that et has an
equal probability of 1=N of falling into them. Given the normality
N1
assumption, the cut-off points fe i gi1 are dened as
i1 i
e m e m 1
F F ; i 1; . . . ; N; 3:10
se se N
i i1
1
e se F m:
N
fe i m=se fe i1 m=se
z i Eet jet A e i ; e i1 se m:
Fe i1 m=se Fe i m=se
1
pi; j :
N
2 3
0:55 0:31 0:14
6 7
p 4 0:31 0:38 0:31 5:
0:14 0:31 0:55
t=1
oldind=1 * Variable to keep track of
state in period t-1 *
y[t]=z[oldind] * Initialize first period *
do until t>T * Loop over all time periods *
u=uniform(0,1) * Generate a uniform random
variable *
sum=0 * Will contain the cumulative
sum of pi *
ind=1 * Index over all possible
values for process *
do until u<=sum * Loop to find out the state
in period t *
sum=sum+pi[oldind,ind] * Cumulative sum of pi *
ind=ind+1
endo
y[t]=z[ind] * State in period t *
oldind=ind * Keep track of lagged state *
t=t+1
endo
Figure 3.11
Simulation of a Markov process
60 Chapter 3
j
X j1
X
pi; l < u a pi; l ;
l1 l1
or j 1 if u < pi; 1 . The values for the periods ahead are constructed
in a similar way. Figure 3.11 presents a computer code that will
construct iteratively the values for T periods.
4.1 Overview
Maximum Likelihood
iid case We start with the case where the draws from the coin are
identically and independently distributed. The likelihood of observ-
ing the sample fx1 ; x2 ; . . . ; xT g is given by
Y
I
Lx; P PiNi ;
i1
Econometrics 63
Ni
Pi P : 4:2
j Nj
y arg max L
~x; y:
y
y arg max Fy N1 1 Fy N2 ;
y
where N1 and N2 are the number of observations that fall into cate-
gories 1 and 2. Straightforward derivation gives
1 N1
y F :
N1 N2
Y
T
Lx; P Px1 ; . . . ; xT Pxl j xl1 Px1 :
l2
X
I X
I
Px1 Px1 j x0 j Pj1 :
j1 j1
Method of Moments
Continuing with our examples, we consider an alternative way to
estimate the parameters. Consider again the iid case, and suppose
that there are only two possible outcomes, I 2, such that we have a
repeated Bernoulli trial. Given a sample of observations, let m denote
a moment computed from the data. For example, m might simply be
Econometrics 65
minmy m 2 :
y
With the choice of moment different from the one in example 4.2,
the method of moments estimator would be different from the max-
imum likelihood estimator. However, asymptotically, when the size
of the data set increases, both estimators converge to the true value.
More generally, let m be a m 1 column vector of moments from
the data. If k < m, the model is said to be over identied, as there are
more moments than parameters to estimate. If k m, the model is
said to be just identied, and if k > m, the model is under identied.
In the latter case estimation cannot be achieved as there are too
many unknown parameters.
So, if k a m, the estimator of y comes from
minmy m 0 W 1 my m:
y
Using Simulations
In many applications the procedures outlined above are difcult to
implement, either because the likelihood of observing the data or the
moments is difcult to compute analytically or because it involves
solving too many integrals. Put differently, the researcher does not
have an analytic representation of My. If this is the case, then esti-
mation can still be carried out numerically using simulations.
Consider again the iid case, where I 2. The simulation approach
proceeds in the following way: First, we x y, the parameter of
My. Second, using the random number generator of a computer,
we generate S draws fus g from a uniform distribution over 0; 1.
We classify each draw as heads (denoted i 1) if us < My or tails
(denoted i 2) otherwise. The fractions of the two events in the
simulated data are used to approximate PiS y by counting the
number of simulated observations that take value i, denoted by Si .
So, PiS y Si /S. The simulated maximum likelihood estimator is
dened as
Y
yS arg max PiS y Ni ;
y
i
Figure 4.1
Log likelihood, true y0 0
Figure 4.2
Objective function, simulated method of moments, true y0 0
Figure 4.2 shows the objective function for the simulated method
of moments. The function has a minimum at the true value of
the parameter. Once again, using more simulation draws obtains a
smoother function, which is easier to minimize.
expc
Pxt 1 :
1 expc
expc 1
L N1 ln N2 ln
1 expc 1 expc
N1 c N1 N2 ln1 expc:
Identication Issues
We conclude this section on coin ipping with an informal discus-
sion of identication issues. Up to here, we implicitly assumed that
the problem was identied, that the estimation method and the data
set allowed us to get a unique estimate of the true vector of parame-
ters y.
A key issue is the dimensionality of the parameter space k relative
to I, the dimensionality of P. First, suppose that k I 1 so that the
dimensionality of y is the same as the number of free elements of
P.2 Second, assume that My is one to one. This means that M is a
function and that for every P there exists only one value of y such
that P My. In this case we effectively estimate y from P by using
the inverse of the model: y M1 P .
This is the most favorable case of identication, and we would say
the parameters of the model are just identied. It is illustrated in
P
2. This is not I since we have the restriction i Pi 1.
Econometrics 71
Figure 4.3
Just identication
Vx Ex 2 Ex 2
2
N1 N2 N1 N2
4 2
N1 N2 N1 N2 N1 N2 N1 N2
N1 N1
1 :
N1 N2 N1 N2
72 Chapter 4
Figure 4.4
Nonidentication
Figure 4.5
Zero likelihood
B1 B2
ap ; bp ;
A1 A2
4:5
B1 B2 B1 B2
b y A1 ; az A2 :
A1 A2 A1 A2
Method of Moments
Denote by y the vector of parameters describing the model
y a p ; az ; bp ; b y :
For simplicity assume that sD , sS , and rSD are known to the
researcher. From the data compute a list of empirical moments, for
example, of the variance of prices and quantities and the covariances
between prices, quantities, income, and the weather. Denote m
fm1 ; m 2 ; m3 ; m4 g 0 a 4 1 vector of empirical moments with3
cov p; y covp; z
m1 ; m3 ;
Vy Vz
4:6
covq; y covq; z
m2 ; m4 :
V y Vz
Maximum Likelihood
The likelihood of observing jointly a given price p and a quantity q
conditional on income and weather can be derived from the reduced
form (4.4) as f p A1 y A2 z; q B1 y B2 z, where f : ; : is the joint
density of the disturbances U1 and U2 and where A1 , A2 , B1 , B2 are
dened as in (4.4). The likelihood of the entire sample is thus
Y
T
Ly f pt A1 yt A2 zt ; qt B1 yt B2 zt : 4:9
t1
Indirect Inference
For a given value of the parameters we are able to draw supply and
demand shocks from their distribution and to simulate articial data
for prices and demand conditional on observed weather and income.
This is done using expression (4.4). Denote the observed data as
T
fqt ; pt ; yt ; zt gt1 . Denote the simulated data as fqts ; pts gt1...; T; s1;...; S .
Denote the set of parameters of the structural system (4.3) as y
fa p ; az ; bp ; b z g. For simplicity we assume that the parameters sD , sS ,
and rDS are known.
Next, we need an auxiliary model that is simple to estimate.
We could use the system (4.3) as this auxiliary model. For both the
observed and the simulated data, we can regress the quantities on
the prices and the income or the weather. Denote the rst set of
auxiliary estimate c^T and the second one c~Ts , s 1; . . . ; S. These vec-
tors contains an estimate for the effect of prices on quantities and the
effect of weather and income on quantity from both the supply and
the demand equations. These estimates will undoubtedly be biased
given the simultaneous nature of the system. However, we are
interested in these auxiliary parameters only to get to the structural
ones (y). The next step is to nd y that brings the vector c~TS
PS ~ s
1/S s1 cyT as close as possible to c^T . Econometric theory tells
us that this will produce a consistent estimate of the parameters of
interest, a p , az , b q , by . Again, we rely here on the assumption of
ergodicity. As will become apparent in section 4.3.3, the estimator
will be less efcient than maximum likelihood or the method of
moments, unless one relies on a very large number of simulations.
Nonidentication
If the weather has no inuence on supply, meaning az 0, then
the reduced form equations only expresses p and q as a function of
income and shocks only. In this case the system is underidentied.
We can only recover part of the original parameters:
B1 q B1
ap ; sp2 V :
A1 A1 p
Econometrics 79
b y B1 A1 b p : 4:10
There is an innity of pairs fb y ; b p g that satises the equality above.
Hence we cannot recover the true values for these two parameters.
From (4.10) it is easy to see that there is an identication problem.
When the estimation involves moment matching or minimization
of a likelihood function, nonidentication may not be as straight-
forward to spot. Some estimation routines will provide an estimate
for the parameters whether the system is identied or not. There is
no reason to think that these estimates will coincide with the true
values, as many sets of parameter values will satisfy the rst-order
conditions (4.8). If the estimation routine is based on a gradient cal-
culation, nding the minimum of a function requires one to calculate
and to nd the inverse Hessian of the criterion function Ly. If
az 0, the Hessian will not be of full rank, as the cross derivatives of
L with respect to az and the other parameters will be zero. Hence one
should be suspicious about the results when numerical problems
occur such as invertibility problems. As the Hessian matrix enters
the calculation of the standard errors, a common sign is also abnor-
mally imprecise coefcients. If the estimation routine is not based on
gradients (e.g., the simplex algorithm), the problem will be more
difcult to spot, as the estimation routine will come up with an esti-
mate. However, these results will usually look strange, with some
coefcients taking absurdly large values. Moreover the estimation
results will be sensible to the choice of initial values.
exercise 4.3 Build a computer program that creates a data set of
prices and quantities using (4.4) for given values z and y. Use this
program to create a data set of size T, the true data set, and then to
construct a simulated data set of size S. Next construct the objective
function for the indirect inference case as suggested in section 4.3.3.
What happens when you set az to zero?
1X T
gy hy; xt :
T t1
5. Here we view T as the length of the data for time series applications and as the
number of observations in a cross section.
Econometrics 81
xt y xt
hy; xt :
xt y 2 xt2
u 0 ct bREt u 0 ct1 :
One can use this restriction to form hy; ct ; ct1 u 0 ct bRu 0 ct1 ,
where y is parameterizing the utility function. On average,
hy; ct ; ct1 should be close to zero at the true value of the parameter.
The Euler equation above brings actually more information than
we have used so far. Not only should the differences between the
marginal utility in period t and t 1 be close to zero, but it should
also be orthogonal to information dated t. Suppose that zt is a vari-
able that belongs to the information set at date t. Then the rst-
order condition also implies that on average, hy; ct ; zt :u 0 ct
bRu 0 ct1 should be close to zero at the true value of the parameter.
If we have more than one zt variable, then we can exploit as many
orthogonality restrictions.
Asymptotic Distribution
Let y^T be the GMM estimate, that is, the solution to (4.3.1). Under
regularity conditions (see Hansen 1982):
0
y^T is a consistent estimator of the true value y0 .
0
The GMM estimator is asymptotically normal:
p d
T y^T y0 ! N0; S;
82 Chapter 4
1 0 1
where S DWy D and where
( )
0 qgy; YT
D plim :
T qy 0 yy0
This means that asymptotically, one can treat the GMM estimate y^T
as a normal variable with mean y0 and variance S^ /T:
!
^
S
y^T @ N y0 ; :
T
1X T X y
Wy lim hy0 ; yt hy0 ; ytl 0 :
T!y T t1 ly
Empirically one can replace Wy by a consistent estimator of this
^ :
matrix W
T
q
X
^ G0; T n
W T 1 Gn; T Gn;0 T
n1
q1
with
1 X T
Gn; T hy^; yt hy^; ytn 0 ;
T tn1
Econometrics 83
which is the Newey-West estimator (see Newey and West 1987 for a
more detailed exposition).
Overidentifying Restrictions
If the number of moments q is larger than the number of parameters
to estimate k, then the system is overidentied. One would only
need k restrictions to estimate y. The remaining restrictions can be
used to evaluate the model. Under the null hypothesis that the
model is the true one, these additional moments should be empiri-
cally close to zero at the true value of the parameters. This forms the
basis of a specication test:
L
Tgy^T 0 W
^ 1 gy^T !
T w 2 q k:
Y
T
LX; y f xt ; y:
t1
84 Chapter 4
X
T
lX; y log f xt ; y:
t1
Y
t1
li y 1 Fe r t W1 ; y Fe r l W1 ; y:
l1
Y
N
Ly li y:
i1
Asymptotic Properties
To derive the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood esti-
mator, it is convenient to regard the maximum likelihood as a GMM
procedure. The rst-order condition for the maximum of the log-
likelihood function is
XT
q log f xt ; y
0:
t1
qy
^ 0 qgy 1XT
q 2 log f xt ; y
D 0 I;
T
qy yy^T T t1 qyqy 0
1X T
S^T hxt ; y^T hxt ; y^T 0 I:
T t1
So we get
p L
T y^T y0 ! N0; I 1 :
In section 4.3.2 the shocks were iid, and this probability could easily
be decomposed into a product of t terms. If e is serially correlated,
then this probability is extremely difcult to write as et is correlated
with all the previous shocks.6 For t periods we have to solve a mul-
tiple integral of order t, which conventional numerical methods of
integration cannot handle. In this section we will show how simu-
lated methods can overcome this problem to provide an estimate of y.
The different simulation methods can be classied into two groups.
The rst group of methods compares a function of the observed data
to a function of the simulated data. Here the average is taken both on
the simulated draws and on all observation in the original data set at
once. This approach is called moment calibration. It includes the
simulated method of moments and indirect inference.
6. For instance, if et ret1 ut with ut @ N0; s 2 , the probability that the cake is
eaten in period 2 is
p2 Pe1 < e W1 ; e2 > e W2
Pe1 < e W1 Pe2 > e W2 j e1 < e W1
! y e
e1 W1 1 1 1
F p p exp 2 u rv 2 du dv:
s/ 1 r 2 2ps e 2 y 2s
If r 0, then the double integral resumes to a simple integral of the normal
distribution.
Econometrics 87
7. For instance, mx x; x 2 if one wants to focus on matching the mean and the
variance of the process.
88 Chapter 4
For further examples, we refer the reader to the second part of the
book, and in particular, to sections 6.3.6 and 7.3.3.
1X T
min xt xtS y 2 :
T t1
90 Chapter 4
The rst term is the same as the one discussed above, the distance
between the observed variable and the average predicted one. The
second term is a second-order correction term that takes into account
the bias introduced by the simulation for a xed S.
Example 4.9 Consider a continuous cake-eating problem dened as
8. To see this, dene yy , the solution to the minimization of the criterion above, when
the sample size T goes to innity:
1X T
yy arg min lim xut ; y0 xy 2
y T T t1
This result holds as Exx ExEx, meaning the covariance between ut and uts is zero.
Differentiating the last line with respect to y, we obtain the rst-order conditions sat-
ised by yy :
q q
Vxyy 2 Exyy Exyy Exu; y0 0:
qy qy
If yy y0 , this rst-order condition is only satised if qVxy0 /qy 0, which is not
guaranteed. Hence yy is not necessarily a consistent estimator. This term depends on
the (gradient of) variance of the variable, where the stochastic element is the simulated
shocks. Using simulated paths instead of the true realization of the shock leads to this
inconsistency.
Econometrics 91
where A^S; T and B ^S; T are dened below. To this end, denote x s
t
s
qxut ; y/qy, the gradient of the variable with respect to the vector of
PS
parameters, and xt S1 s1 xts , its average across all simulations:
" #
^ 1X T
0 1 XS
s s 0
AS; T xt xt xt xt xt xt ;
T t1 SS 1 s1
XT
^S; T 1
B dS; t y dS; t y 0 ;
T t1
1 XS
dS; t y xt xt yxt y xuts ; y xyxts y:
SS 1 s1
1X S
Eu f~xt ; u; y lim f~xt ; u s ; y fxt ; y:
S S
s1
asymptotic properties
0
The SML estimator is consistent if Tpand
S tend to innity. When
both T and S go to innity and when T /S ! 0, then
p d
T y^ST y0 ! N0; I 1 y0 :
The matrix Iy0 can be approximated by
PS ~
1X T
q 2 log1/S s1 fxt ; uts ; y
0 :
T t1 qyqy
0
It is inconsistent if S is xed.
The bias is then
1 1
Ey^ST y0 @ I y0 Eaxt ; y;
S
where
matrix. The bias also depends on the choice of the simulator, through
the function a. Gourieroux and Monfort (1996) propose a rst-order
correction for the bias. Fermanian and Salanie (2001) extend these
results and propose a nonparametric estimator of the unknown like-
lihood function based on simulations.
Indirect Inference
When the model is complex, the likelihood is sometimes intractable.
The indirect inference method works around it by using a simpler
auxiliary model, which is estimated instead. This auxiliary model
is estimated both on the observed data and on simulated data. The
indirect inference method tries to nd the vector of structural
parameters that brings the auxiliary parameters from the simulated
data as close as possible to the one obtained on observed data. A
complete description can be found in Gourieroux et al. (1993; see
also Smith 1993).
Consider the likelihood of the auxiliary model f~xt ; b, where b is a
vector of auxiliary parameters. The estimator b^T , computed from the
observed data is dened by
Y
T
b^T arg max f~xt ; b:
b
t1
Under the null the observed data are generated by the model at the
true value of the parameter y0 . There is thus a link between the aux-
iliary parameter b0 (the true value of the auxiliary parameter) and
the structural parameters y. Following Gourieroux et al. (1993), we
denote this relationship by the binding function by. Were this
function known, we could invert it to directly compute y from the
value of the auxiliary parameter. Unfortunately, this function usu-
ally has no known analytical form, so the method relies on simula-
tions to characterize it.
The model is then simulated by taking independent draws for the
shock uts . This gives S articial data sets of length T: fx1s y; . . . ;
xTs yg, s 1; . . . ; S. The auxiliary model is then estimated out of the
simulated data, to get b^sT :
Y
T
b^sT y arg max f~xts y; b:
b
t1
94 Chapter 4
Dene b^ST the average value of the auxiliary parameters, over all
simulations:
1X S
b^ST b^ y:
S s1 sT
X
T
ln L ln be bDt :
t1
1X S
1X T
q
my; bT ln f~xts y; b^T :
S s1 T t1 qb
q 2 cT y; b
J0 plim ;
T qbqb 0
p qc y; b
I0 lim V T T ;
T qb
96 Chapter 4
" !#
p q XT
K0 lim V E T 0 f~xt ; b ;
T qb t1
qb 0 y0 q 2 cT y0 ; by0
J01 lim :
qy T qbqy 0
The last formula is useful for computing the asymptotic covariance
matrix without calculating directly the binding function. As in the
GMM case there exists an optimal weighting matrix such that the
variance of the estimator is minimized. The optimal choice denoted
W is
W J0 I0 K0 1 J0 :
In this case the variance of the estimator simplies to
1 qb 0 y0 qby0 1
QS W 1 J0 I0 K0 1 J0 ;
S qy qy 0
or equivalently
1
1 q 2 cy y0 ; by0 2
1 q cy y0 ; by0
QS W 1 I0 K0 :
S qyqb 0 qbqy 0
The formula above does not require us to compute explicitly the
binding function. Note that the choice of the auxiliary model matters
for the efciency of the estimator. Clearly, one would want an auxil-
iary model such that qb 0 y/qy is large in absolute values. If not, the
model would poorly identify the structural parameters.
In practice, by0 ) can be approximated by b^ST y^ST . A consistent
estimator of I0 K0 can be obtained by computing
T X
S
I0d
K0 Ws WWs W 0
S s1
with
qcT y^; b^
Ws ;
qb
1X S
W Ws ;
S s1
Econometrics 97
see Gourieroux et al. (1993, app. 2). Now, if the number of parame-
ters to be estimated in the structural model is equal to the number
of parameters in the auxiliary parameters, the weighting matrix W
plays no role, and the variance QS W simplies to
1 qb 0 y0 qby0 1
QS W 1 W :
S qy qy 0
specication tests A global specication test can be carried out
using the minimized
TS
zT min b^T b^ST y 0 WT b^T b^ST y;
1S y
4.4 Conclusion
Overview of Methodology
In the rst three chapters we presented theoretical tools to model,
solve, and estimate economic models. Ideally, to investigate a par-
ticular economic topic, a research agenda would include all three
parts, building on economic theory and confronting it with the data
to assess its validity.
Figure 4.6 summarizes this approach and points to the relevant
chapters. The gure starts with an economic model, described by a
set of parameters and some choice structure. It is important at this
stage to characterize the properties of that model and the rst-order
conditions or to write it as a recursive problem. The model under
consideration might be difcult to solve analytically. It is some-
time necessary to use numerical methods as developed in chapter
3. One can then derive the optimal policy rules, namely the optimal
behavior given a number of predetermined variables.
From the policy rules9 the parameters can be estimated. This is
usually done by comparing some statistics built both from the
observed data and from the model. The estimated parameters are
9. The specication of the model should also be rich enough so that the estimation
makes sense. In particular, the model must contain a stochastic element that explains
why the model is not tting the data exactly. This can be the case if some character-
istics, such as taste shocks, are unobserved.
Econometrics 99
Figure 4.6
Overview of methodology
5.1 Overview
1. In the standard real business cycle model, however, there is no rationale for such
intervention.
104 Chapter 5
X
y
b t1 uct : 5:1
1
Vk max
0
u f k 1 dk k 0 bVk 0 for all k: 5:2
k
Here the state variable is the stock of capital at the start of the period
and the control variable is the capital stock for the next period.2
With f k strictly concave, there will exist a maximal level of capi-
tal achievable by this economy given by k where
k 1 dk f k:
2. Equivalently we could have specied the problem with k as the state, c as the con-
trol, and then used a transition equation of k 0 f k 1 dk c.
Stochastic Growth 105
This provides a bound on the capital stock for this economy and thus
guarantees that our objective function, uc, is bounded on the set of
feasible consumption levels, 0; f k 1 dk. We assume that both
uc and f k are continuous and real-valued so that there exists a
Vk that solves (5.2).3
The rst-order condition is given by
u 0 c bV 0 k 0 : 5:3
Of course, we dont know Vk directly, so we need to use (5.2) to
determine V 0 k. As (5.2) holds for all k A 0; k, we can take a deriva-
tive and obtain
V 0 k u 0 c f 0 k 1 d:
Updating this one period and inserting this into the rst-order con-
dition yields
u 0 c bu 0 c 0 f 0 k 0 1 d:
This is an Euler condition that is not unlike the one we encountered
in the cake eating problem. Here the left-hand side is the cost of
reducing consumption by e today. The right-hand side is then the
increase in utility in the next period from the extra capital created by
investment of the e. As in the cake-eating example, if the Euler
equation holds, then no single period deviations will increase the
utility of the household. As in that example, this is a necessary but
not a sufcient condition for optimality.4
From the discussion in chapter 2, Vk is strictly concave. Conse-
quently, from (5.3), k 0 must be increasing in k. To see why, suppose
that current capital increases but future capital falls. Then current
consumption will certainly increase so that the left-hand side of (5.3)
decreases. Yet with k 0 falling and Vk strictly concave, the right-
hand side of (5.3) increases. This is a contradiction.
5.2.1 An Example
Vk A B ln k for all k:
We want to show that this function satises (5.2). If it does, then the
rst-order condition, (5.3), can be written as
1 bB
0:
c k
bBk a k 0 k 0
or
0 bB
k k a: 5:4
1 bB
B a bBa:
Hence B a=1 ba. Now A can be determined. So we have a
solution to the functional equation. As for the policy functions, using
B, we nd that
k 0 bak a
Stochastic Growth 107
and
c 1 bak a :
It is important to understand how this type of argument works.
We started by choosing (guessing) the value function. Then we
derived a policy function. Substituting this policy function into the
functional equation gave us an expression (5.5) that depends only on
the current state k. As this expression must hold for all k, we
grouped terms and solved for the unknown coefcients of the pro-
posed value function.
exercise 5.1 To see how this approach to nding a solution to the
nonstochastic growth model could fail, argue that the following
cannot be solutions to the functional equation:
1. Vk A
2. Vk B ln k
3. Vk A Bk a
Functional Forms
There are two primitive functions that must be specied for the
nonstochastic growth model. The rst is the production function and
the second is the utility function of the household. The grow.m code
assumes that the production function is given by
f k k a :
5. That code and explanations for its use are available on the Web site for this book.
108 Chapter 5
c 1s
uc :
1s
u 00 cc
u 0 c
Parameter Values
The second component of the program species parameter values.
The code is written so that the user can either accept some baseline
parameters (which you can edit) or change these values in the exe-
cution of the program. Let
Y a; b; d; s
denote the vector of parameters that are inputs to the program. In an
estimation exercise, Y would be chosen so that the models quanti-
tative implications match data counterparts. Here we are simply
interested in the anatomy of the program, and thus Y is set at some-
what arbitrary values.
Spaces
As noted earlier, the value function iteration approach does require
an approximation to the state space of the problem. That is, we need
to make the capital state space discrete. Let k represent the capital
state space. We solve the functional equation for all k A k with the
requirement that k 0 lie in k as well. So the code for the nonstochastic
growth model does not interpolate between the points in this grid
but rather solves the problem on the grid.
The choice of k is important. For the nonstochastic growth model
we might be interested in transition dynamics: if the economy is not
at the steady state, how does it return to the steady state? Let k be
6. In the discussion of King et al. (1988), this term is often called the elasticity of the
marginal utility of consumption with respect to consumption.
Stochastic Growth 109
the steady state value of the capital stock. From (5.2), it solves
1 baka1 1 d:
This is the value of steady state computed in grow.m. The state
space is built in the neighborhood of the steady state through the
denitions of the highest and lowest values of the capital stock,
which are khi and klow in the code.7 A grid is then set up between
these two extreme values. The user species the neness of the grid
with the consideration that a ner grid provides a better approxi-
mation but is expensive in terms of computer time.8
7. One must take care that the state space is not binding. For the growth model we
know that k 0 is increasing in k and that k 0 exceeds (is less than) k when k is less than
(exceeds) k . Thus the state space is not binding.
8. This trade-off can be seen by varying the size of the state space in grow.m. In many
empirical applications, there is a limit to the size of the state space in that a ner grid
doesnt inuence the moments obtained from a given parameter vector.
9. A useful exercise is to alter this initial guess and determine whether the solution of
the problem is independent of it. Making good initial guesses helps solve the func-
tional equation quickly and is often valuable for estimation routines involving many
loops over parameters.
110 Chapter 5
Figure 5.1
Policy function
upward sloping as argued earlier. The second plot (gure 5.2) is the
level of net investment (k 0 k) for each level of k in the state space.
This line crosses zero at the steady state and is downward sloping.
So, for value of k below the steady state, the capital stock is increas-
ing (net investment is positive), while for k above k , net investment
is negative.
The program also allows one to calculate transition dynamics
starting from an (arbitrary) initial capital stock. There are two useful
exercises that help one practice this piece of code.
exercise 5.2
1. Show how other variables (output, consumption, the real interest
rate) behave along the transition path. Explain the patterns of these
variables.
2. Show how variations in the parameters in Y inuence the speed
and other properties of the transitional dynamics.
Stochastic Growth 111
Figure 5.2
Net investment
10. Later in this chapter we move away from this framework to discuss economies
with distortions and heterogeneity.
112 Chapter 5
5.3.1 Environment
X
y
b t uct ; lt ;
t0
11. Later in this chapter we discuss extensions that include multiple sectors.
Stochastic Growth 113
Yt At FK t ; Nt ;
where FK; N is increasing in both inputs, exhibits constant returns
to scale, and is strictly concave. Variations in total factor productiv-
ity, At , are the source of uctuations in this economy. Here upper-
case letters refer to economywide aggregates and lowercase letters to
household (per capita) variables.
Finally, there is a resource constraint: the sum of consumption and
investment cannot exceed output in each period. That is,
Yt Ct It :
k A f k 1 dk; 5:7
where A is the largest productivity shock. Since consumption must
be nonnegative, the k that solves this expression from the transition
equation is the largest amount of capital that this economy could
12. Some of these restrictions are stronger than necessary to obtain a solution. As
we are going to literally compute the solution to (5.6), we will eventually have to cre-
ate a discrete representation anyways. So we have imposed some of these features at
the start of the formulation of the problem. The assumptions on the shocks parallel
those made in the presentation of the stochastic dynamic programming problem in
chapter 2.
Stochastic Growth 115
Linearization
We could formulate a solution to the stochastic growth model above
through analysis of the resource constraints and the intertemporal
Euler equation. The latter is a necessary condition for optimality, and
it can be obtained directly from the sequence problem representation
of the planners problem. Alternatively, from Bellmans equation, the
rst-order condition for the planner is written as
u 0 A f k 1 dk k 0 bEA0 j A Vk 0 A0 ; k 0 for all A; k: 5:8
Vk A; k u 0 cA f 0 k 1 d:
Substituting this into (5.8) and evaluating it at A0 ; k 0 yields
u 0 c bEA0 j A u 0 c 0 A0 f 0 k 0 1 d; 5:9
where
c A f k 1 dk k 0 5:10
116 Chapter 5
1 bA f 0 k 1 d: 5:11
Further in steady state k 0 k k , so the steady state level of con-
sumption satises c A f k dk .
Following King et al. (1988), we let c^t , k^t and A^t denote percent
deviations from their steady state values respectively. For example,
x^t 1 xt x =x . Assume that in terms of deviations from mean, the
shocks follow a rst-order autoregressive process, A^t1 rA^t et1
with r A 0; 1.
Then we can rewrite the Euler condition, (5.9), as
1 d sc
k^t1 k^t A^t ct :
d^ 5:13
b 1 sc 1 sc
13. The problem is similar to that described by King et al. (1988), though here we have
not yet introduced employment.
Stochastic Growth 117
where y is the steady state level of output. Since the steady state
level of investment i dk , this can be rewritten as
1 bad=1 sc 1 d:
Solving this, we obtain
bad
1 sc ;
1 b1 d
14. The discussion in the appendix of King et al. (1988) is recommended for those who
want to study this linearization approach in some detail.
118 Chapter 5
Note that here we take the expectation, over A0 given A, of the ratio
since future consumption c 0 will presumably depend on the realized
value of the productivity shock next period.
To solve for the policy function, we make a guess and attempt to
verify it.15 We claim that the policy function k 0 fA; k is given by
fA; k lAk a ;
where l is an unknown constant. That is, our guess is that the future
capital is proportional to output, which is similar to the policy func-
tion we deduced for the example of the nonstochastic growth model.
The resource constraint then is
c 1 lAk a :
To verify this guess and determine l, we substitute this in the pro-
posed policy function (5.14). This yields
0 0a1
1 A ak
bE 0
A jA :
1 lAk a 1 lA0 k 0 a
k 0 baAk a : 5:15
Hence our guess is veried and l ab. This implies that consump-
tion is proportional to income:
c 1 baAk a : 5:16
We could also show that the value function that solves (5.6) is
given by
15. Here we formulate the guess of the policy function rather than the value function.
In either case the key is to check that the functional equation is satised.
Stochastic Growth 119
G ln1 ba bG bB lnba:
Similarly, for the coefcients multiplying lnk, we must have
B a bBa:
Finally, with respect to lnA,
D 1 bB bDr:
As we solve for G, B, and D in this system of equations, we solve
the functional equation. The solution is unique, so we verify our
guess. Although tedious, we could solve this as
a
B ;
1 ba
1
D :
1 br1 ba
exercise 5.3 Show that if there is less than 100 percent deprecia-
tion, the solution given by fA; k lAk a fails.
16. Alternatively, one could start from this guess of the value function and then use it
to deduce the policy function.
120 Chapter 5
5.3.4 Decentralization
17. Given that uc and f k are both strictly concave, it is straightforward to see that
the value function for the one-period problem is strictly concave in k. As we argued in
chapter 2, this property is preserved by the TV mapping used to construct a solution
to the functional equation.
18. See Tauchen (1990) for a discussion of this economy and a comparison of the value
function iteration solution relative to other solution methods.
19. See also the presentation of various decentralizations in Stokey and Lucas (1989).
Stochastic Growth 121
Here the household uses the law of motion for K. From (5.18) we
know that Vk rKu 0 c, so the rst-order condition can be written
as
u 0 c bEr 0 u 0 c 0 : 5:20
A recursive equilibrium is comprised of
0
factor price functions: rK and oK
0
individual policy functions: hA; k; K from (5.18)
0
a law for motion for K: HA; K
such that
0
households and rms optimize
0
markets clear
0
HA; k hA; k; k
122 Chapter 5
VA; k max
0
uA f k; n 1 dk k 0 ; 1 n bEA0 j A VA0 ; k 0
k ;n
uc c; 1 nA fn k; n ul c; 1 n: 5:23
This condition equates the marginal gain from increasing employ-
ment and consuming the extra output with the marginal cost in
terms of the reduction in leisure time. This is clearly a necessary
20. Of course, this is static for a given k 0 . The point is that the choice of n does not
inuence the evolution of the state variable.
Stochastic Growth 123
VA; k max
0
sA; k; k 0 bEA0 j A VA0 ; k 0 for all A; k: 5:24
k
This has the same structure as the stochastic growth model with
a xed labor supply, though the return function, sA; k; k 0 , is not a
primitive object. Instead, it is derived from a maximization problem
and thus inherits its properties from the more primitive uc; 1 n
and f k; n functions. Referring to the results in chapter 2, we know
there is a solution to this problem and that a stationary policy func-
tion will exist. Denote the policy function by k 0 hA; k.
The rst-order condition for the choice of the future capital stock is
given by
sk 0 A; k; k 0 bEA0 j A Vk 0 A0 ; k 0 0;
sk 0 A; k; k 0 bEA0 j A sk 0 A0 ; k 0 ; k 00 :
Using (5.22), we can rewrite this in more familiar terms as
ity shocks will be lower the more permanent are these shocks.21
By consumption smoothing, a household will optimally adjust con-
sumption in all periods to an increase in productivity. The more
persistent is the shock to productivity, the more responsive will
consumption be to it.22
A discussion along the same lines as that for the stochastic growth
model with xed labor input applies here as well. As in King et al.
(1988) one can attack the set of necessary conditions(5.23), (5.25),
and the resource constraintthrough a log-linearization procedure.
The reader is urged to study that approach from their paper.
Alternatively, one can again simply solve the functional equation
directly. This is just an extension of the programming exercise given
at the end of the previous section on the stochastic growth model
with xed labor supply. The outline of the program will be dis-
cussed here leaving the details as an additional exercise.
The program should be structured to focus on solving (5.24)
through the value function iteration. The problem is that the return
function is derived and thus must be solved for inside of the pro-
gram. The researcher can obtain an approximate solution to the
employment policy function, given previously as f^A; k; k 0 . This is
achieved by specifying grids for the shocks, the capital state space
and the employment space.23 As noted earlier, this is the point of
approximation in the value function iteration routine: ner grids
yield better approximations but are costly in terms of computer time.
Once f^A; k; k 0 is obtained, then
21. Preferences are actually often specied so that there is no response in hours worked
to permanent shocks. Another specication of preferences, pursued by Hansen (1985),
arises from the assumption that employment is a discrete variable at the individual
level. Rogerson (1988) provides the basic framework for the indivisible labor model.
22. We will see this in more detail in the following chapter on household savings and
consumption where there is stochastic income.
23. For some specications of the utility function, f^A; k; k 0 can be solved analytically
and inserted into the program. For example, suppose that uc; 1 n Uc x1 n,
where x is a parameter. Then the rst-order condition is A fn k; n x, which can be
solved to obtain f^A; k; k 0 given the production function. To verify this, assume that
A f k; n is a Cobb-Douglas function.
Stochastic Growth 125
ing the value function iteration phase of the program. So, given
sA; k; k 0 , the program would then proceed to solve (5.24) through
the usual value function iteration routine.
The output of the program is then the policy function for capital
accumulation, k 0 hA; k, and a policy function for employment,
n fA; k, where
uc; 1 n lnc x1 n
as the utility function.24 The parameter vector then is
Y a; d; b; x; r; s;
where a characterizes the technology, d determines the rate of
depreciation of the capital stock, b is the discount factor, and x
24. The interested reader can go beyond this structure, though the arguments put
forth by King et al. (1988) on restrictions necessary for balanced growth should be
kept in mind. Here the function x1 n is left unspecied for the moment, though we
assume it has a constant elasticity given by h.
126 Chapter 5
5.5.1 Moments
25. King, Plosser, and Rebelo, however, build a deterministic trend into their analysis,
which they remove to render the model stationary. As noted in section 3.2.1 of their
paper, this has implications for selecting a discount factor.
Stochastic Growth 127
Table 5.1
Observed and predicted moments
KPR calibrated
Moments U.S. data model
Std relative to output
Consumption 0.69 0.64
Investment 1.35 2.31
Hours 0.52 0.48
Wages 1.14 0.69
Cross correlation with output
Consumption 0.85 0.82
Investment 0.60 0.92
Hours 0.07 0.79
Wages 0.76 0.90
sponding to the average hours worked between 1948 and 1986. King,
Plosser, and Rebelo use variations in the parameters of the stochastic
process (principally r) as a tool for understanding the response of
economic behavior as the permanence of shocks is varied. In other
studies, such as Kydland and Prescott (1982), the parameters of the
technology shock process is inferred from the residual of the pro-
duction function.
Note that for these calibration exercises the model does not have
to be solved in order to pick the parameters. That is, the policy
functions are not actually used in the calibration of the parameters.
Instead, the parameters are chosen by looking at evidence that is
outside of business cycle properties, such as time series averages.
Comparing the models predictions against actual business cycle
moments is thus an informal overidentication exercise.
Table 5.1 shows moments from U.S. data as well as the predictions
of these moments from the King, Plosser, and Rebelo model para-
meterized as described above.26 The rst set of moment is the stan-
dard deviation of key macroeconomic variables relative to output.
The second set of moments is the correlation of these variables with
output.
In the literature this is a common set of moments to study. Note
that the stochastic growth model, as parameterized by King, Plosser,
26. Specically the moments from the KPR model are taken from their table 4, using
the panel data labor supply elasticity and r 0:9. The standard deviation of the tech-
nology shock (deviation from steady state) is set at 2.29.
128 Chapter 5
5.5.2 GMM
kt1 it
d1 :
kt
28. As the authors indicate, this procedure may only uncover the depreciation rate
used to construct the capital series from observations on investment.
29. In contrast to many studies in the calibration tradition, this is truly an estimation
exercise, complete with standard errors.
130 Chapter 5
Note the timing here: the realized value of Z is known prior to the
accumulation decision. As with the stochastic growth model, this
dynamic programming problem can be solved by a value function
iteration or by linearization around the steady state.
From the perspective of the econometrics, by introducing this
second source of uncertainty, the model has enough randomness to
30. The model cannot be rejected at a 15 percent level based on the J-statistic com-
puted from the match of these two moments.
Stochastic Growth 131
31. The reason is that the empirical analysis focuses on output and investment
uctuations.
132 Chapter 5
32. When employment is variable and wages are observed, then (5.23) has no error
term either. So researchers include taste shocks. This way they nd that current con-
sumption can be written as a function of current output and lagged consumption
without any error term. This prediction is surely inconsistent with the data.
33. See Hansen et al. (1994) for a general formulation of this approach.
Stochastic Growth 133
y Ak a n f Y g Y1
e
; 5:28
where A is a productivity shock that is common across producers.
Here g parameterizes the contemporaneous interaction between
producers. If g is positive, then there is a complementarity at work:
as other agents produce more, the productivity of the individual
agent increases as well. In addition this specication allows for a
dynamic interaction parameterized by e. As discussed in Cooper and
Johri (1997), this may be interpreted as a dynamic technological
complementarity or even a learning by doing effect. This production
function can be embedded into a stochastic growth model.
Consider the problem of a representative household with access to
a production technology given by (5.28). This is essentially a version
of (5.21) with a different technology.
There are two ways to solve this problem. The rst is to write the
dynamic programming problem, carefully distinguishing between
34. Each of these extensions creates an environment that the interested reader can
use in specifying, solving, and estimating parameters of a dynamic programming
problem.
35. Cooper (1999) explores a wide variety of ways to model complementarities.
Enriching the neoclassical production function is the one closest to existing models.
See the discussion in Benhabib and Farmer (1994) and Farmer and Guo (1994) on the
use of these models to study indeterminacy. Manski (1993) and Cooper (2002) discuss
issues associated with the estimation of models with complementarities and multiple
equilibria.
134 Chapter 5
36. In contrast to the contraction mapping theorem, there is no guarantee that this
process will converge. In some cases the households response to an aggregate law of
motion can be used as the next guess on the aggregate law of motion. Iteration of this
may lead to a recursive equilibrium.
37. See Cooper (1999) and the references therein.
38. For now think of these are producer durables, though one could also add con-
sumer durables to this sector or create another sector.
Stochastic Growth 135
yj A j f k j ; n j :
subject to
c A 1 f k 1 ; n 1 ; 5:30
k 0 k1 d A 2 f k 2 ; n 2 ; 5:31
n n1 n2; 5:32
1 2
k k k : 5:33
This optimization problem can be solved using value function
iteration, and the properties of the simulated economy can, in prin-
ciple, be compared to data. For this economy the policy functions
will specify the state contingent allocation of capital and labor across
sectors.
Economies generally exhibit positive comovement of employment
and output across sectors. This type of correlation may be difcult
for a multisector economy to match unless there is sufcient correla-
tion in the shocks across sectors.39
This problem can be enriched by introducing costs of reallocating
capital and/or labor across the sectors. At the extreme, capital may
be entirely sector specic. In that case the state space for the dynamic
programming problem must include the allocation of capital across
sectors inherited from the past. By adding this friction to the model,
we reduce the ow of factors across the sectors.
exercise 5.6 Extend the code for the one sector stochastic growth
model to solve (5.29). Use the resulting policy functions to simulate
VA; S; k max
0
uc; 1 n; S bEA0 ; S 0 j A; S VA0 ; S 0 ; k 0 5:34
fk ; ng
5.6.4 Taxes
40. McGrattan (1994) allows for past labor to enter current utility as well.
41. See McGrattan (1994) and the references therein for a discussion of computing
such equilibria.
138 Chapter 5
5.7 Conclusion
X
1
b t uct uc0 buc1 ; 6:1
t0
a1 r 0 a 0 y 0 c0
and
a2 r1 a1 y1 c1 :
Here yt is period t income and at is the agents wealth at the start
of period t. It is important to appreciate the timing and notational
assumptions made in these budget constraints. First, rt represents the
gross return on wealth between period t and period t 1. Second,
the consumer earns this interest on wealth plus income less con-
sumption over the period. It is as if the income and consumption
decisions are made at the start of the period and then interest is
earned over the period. Nothing critical hinges on these timing
decisions, but it is necessary to be consistent about them.
There are some additional constraints to note. First, we restrict
consumption to be nonnegative. Second, the stock of assets remain-
ing at the end of the consumers life a2 must be nonnegative. Else,
the consumer would set a2 y and die (relatively happily) with an
enormous outstanding debt. We leave open the possibility of a2 > 0.
Consumption 141
a2 c1 y1
c0 a 0 y 0 : 6:2
r1 r 0 r 0 r0
u 0 c0 l br 0 u 0 c1 6:3
as a necessary condition for optimality, where l is the multiplier on
(6.2). This is an intertemporal rst-order condition (often termed the
consumers Euler equation) that relates the marginal utility of con-
sumption across two periods.
It is best to think of this condition as a deviation from a proposed
solution to the consumers optimization problem. So, given a candi-
date solution, suppose that the consumer reduces consumption by a
small amount in period 0 and increases savings by the same amount.
The cost of the deviation is obtained by u 0 c0 in (6.3). The household
will earn r 0 between the two periods and will consume those extra
units of consumption in period 1. This leads to a discounted gain in
utility given by the right side of (6.3). When this condition holds,
lifetime utility cannot be increased through such a perturbation from
the optimal path.
As in our discussion of the cake-eating problem in chapter 2, this
is just a necessary condition, since (6.3) captures a very special type
142 Chapter 6
c1 y1
c0 a 0 y 0 1 w 0 ; 6:4
r0 r0
1. This has a well-understood implication for the timing of taxes. Essentially a government
with a xed level of spending must decide on the timing of its taxes. If we interpret the in-
come ows in our example as net of taxes, then intertemporal variation in taxes (holding
xed their present value) will only change the timing of household income and not its present
value. Thus tax policy will inuence savings but not consumption decisions.
Consumption 143
d
uc a bc c 2 ;
2
u 0 c0 Ey1 j y 0 bR 0 u 0 R 0 A 0 y 0 c0 y1 :
Note here that the marginal utility of future consumption is stochas-
tic. Thus the trade-off in the Euler equation reects the loss of utility
today from reducing consumption relative to the expected gain,
which depends on the realization of income in period 1.
144 Chapter 6
c0 Ey1 j y 0 c1 R 0 A 0 y 0 c0 Ey1 j y 0 y1 :
Solving for c0 and calculating Ey1 j y 0 y1 yields
R 0 A 0 y 0 ry 0 R0A0 R 0 r
c0 y0 : 6:5
1 R 0 1 R 0 1 R 0 1 R 0
qc0 R 0 r
:
qy 0 1 R 0
and
~ r u 0 R
u 0 y 0 a r a s bER~ r R ~ r a r Rs a s y1 :
covR~ r ; u 0 R
~ r a r Rs a s y1
Rs Rr : 6:6
~ r a r R s a s y1
ER~ r u 0 R
The sign of the numerator of the ratio on the right depends on the
sign of a r .
If the agent holds both the riskless and the risky asset (a r > 0 and
a s > 0), then the strict concavity of uc implies that the covariance
must be negative. In this case, Rr must exceed Rs : the agent must be
compensated for holding the risky asset.
If the average returns are equal, then the agent will not hold the
risky asset ar 0 and (6.6) will hold. Finally, if Rr is less than Rs ,
the agent will sell the risky asset and buy additional units of the
riskless asset.
If the constraint does not bind, then the consumer has nonnegative
savings and the familiar Euler equation for the two-period problem
holds. However, if m > 0, then c0 y 0 and
u 0 y 0 > bR 0 u 0 y1 :
A 0 RA y c:
We assume that the problem is stationary so that no time subscripts
are necessary.3 This requires, among other things, that income and
returns be stationary random variables and that the joint distribution
of y 0 ; R depend only on y; R1 .
The transition equation has the same timing as we assumed in the
two-period problem: interest is earned on wealth plus income less
3. We assume that there exists a solution to this function equation. This requires, as always,
that the choice be bounded, perhaps by a constraint on the total debt that a household can
accumulate.
148 Chapter 6
consumption over the period. Further the interest rate that applies is
not necessarily known at the time of the consumption decision. Thus
the expectation in Bellmans equation is over the two unknowns
y 0 ; R 0 where the given state variables provide information on fore-
casting these variables.4
Theory
The case we study is
vA; y max uc bEy 0 j y vA 0 ; y 0 ; 6:7
c
4. If there are other variables known to the decision maker that provide information on
y 0 ; R, then these variables would be included in the state vector as well.
Consumption 149
c 1g 1
uc ;
1g
Evidence
Hall (1978) studies the case where uc is quadratic so that the mar-
ginal utility of consumption is linear. In this case consumption itself
is predicted to follow a random walk. Hall uses this restriction to test
the predictions of this model of consumption. In particular, if con-
sumption follows a random walk, then
ct1 ct et1 :
5. Sargent (1978) also provides a test for the permanent income hypothesis and rejects the
model.
150 Chapter 6
Theory
Assume that there are N assets available. Let R1 denote the N-
vector of gross returns between the current and previous period and
let A be the current stock of wealth. Let si denote the share of asset
i 1; 2; . . . ; N held by the agent. Normalizing the price of each asset
to be unity, the current consumption of the agent is then
X
cA si :
i
6. See, for instance, Zeldes (1989b) and Campbell and Mankiw (1989).
Consumption 151
Empirical Implementation
The starting point for the analysis is the Euler equation for the
households problem with N assets. We rewrite that rst-order con-
dition here using time subscripts to show the timing of decisions and
realizations of random variables:
i bRit1 u 0 ct1
et1 y 1 1 for i 1; 2; . . . ; N: 6:12
u 0 ct
i
Thus et1 y is a measure of the deviation for an asset i. We have
added y as an argument in this error to highlight its dependence on
the parameters describing the households preferences. Household
optimization implies that
i
Et et1 y 0 for i 1; 2; . . . ; N:
Let zt be a q-vector of variables that are in the period t information
set.7 This restriction on conditional expectations implies that
i
Eet1 y n zt 0 for i 1; 2; . . . ; N; 6:13
1X T
j
e i yzt :
T t1 t1
7. The theory does not imply which of the many possible variables should be used when
employing these restrictions in an estimation exercise. That is, the question of which mo-
ments to match is not answered by the theory.
Consumption 153
JT y mT y 0 WT mT y:
Here WT is an Nq Nq matrix that is used to weight the various
moment restrictions.
Hansen and Singleton (1982) use monthly seasonally adjusted
aggregate data on U.S. nondurable consumption or nondurables and
services between 1959 and 1978. They use as a measure of stock
returns, the equally weighted average return on all stocks listed on
the New York Stock Exchange. They choose a constant relative risk
aversion utility function uc c 1g =1 g. With this specication
there are two parameters to estimate, the curvature of the utility
function g and the discount factor b. Thus y b; g. The authors use
as instruments lagged values of ct ; Rit1 and estimate the model
with 1, 2, 4, or 6 lags. Depending on the number of lags and the
series used, they nd values for g which vary between 0.67 and 0.97
and values for the discount factor between 0.942 and 0.998. As the
model is overidentied, there is scope for an overidentication test.
Depending on the number of lags and the series used, the test gives
mixed results as the restrictions are sometimes satised and some-
times rejected.
Note that the authors do not adjust for possible trends in the esti-
mation. Suppose that log consumption is characterized by a linear
trend:
ct expatc~t ;
where c~t is the detrended consumption. In that case equation (6.12) is
rewritten as
g
i beag Rit1 c~t1
et1 y 1 1 for i 1; 2; . . . ; N:
c~tg
where
8. This is similar to the trick we used in the stochastic growth model with endogenous
employment.
Consumption 155
ln wt 1
lnnt ln Uc ct ; nt ln g2t ln o2 :
o2 1 o2 1
l0
Uc ct ; nt t :
b 1 r1 . . . 1 rt
The author treats the unobserved multiplier l 0 , as a xed effect
and uses panel data to estimate a subset of the parameters of the
utility function from rst differences. In a next step the xed effect is
backed out. At this point some additional identication assumptions
are needed. A specic functional form is assumed for the Lagrange
multiplier, written as a function of wages over the life cycle and ini-
tial wealth, all of them being unobserved in the data set. The author
uses then xed characteristics such that education or age to proxy
for the Lagrange multiplier. The author nds that a 10 percent in-
crease in the real wage induces a one to 5 percent increase in hours
worked.
Eichenbaum et al. (1988) analyze the time series properties of a
household model with both a savings and a labor supply decision.
They pay particular attention to specications in which preferences
are nonseparable, both across time and between consumption and
leisure contemporaneously. They estimate their model using GMM
on time series evidence on real consumption (excluding durables)
and hours worked. They nd support for nontime separability in
preferences, though in some cases they found little evidence against
the hypothesis that preferences were separable within a period.
156 Chapter 6
9. See also Wright and Williams (1984) and Miranda and Helmberger (1988) for an early
contribution on this subject, including numerical solutions and simulations of these models.
Consumption 157
u 0 c bREu 0 c 0
Figure 6.1
Consumption and liquidity constraints: Optimal consumption rule
Figure 6.2
Simulations of consumption and assets with serially correlated income
Consumption 159
Table 6.1
GMM estimation based on the Euler equation
Liquidity constrained
g periods g^GMM
0.5 80% 2.54
1 50 3.05
2 27 3.92
3 23 4.61
4 11 5.23
5 9 5.78
6 8 6.25
Note: r 0, s 10, m 100, b 0:9, r 0:05. Estimation done on 3,000 simulated
observations.
An Estimation Exercise
In section 6.3.3 we presented a GMM estimation by Hansen and
Singleton (1982) based on the Euler equation. Hansen and Singleton
(1982) nd a value for g of about 0.8. This is under the null that the
model is correctly specied, and in particular, that the Euler equa-
tion holds in each period. When liquidity constraints are binding, the
standard Euler equation does not hold. An estimation procedure that
does not take into account this fact would produce biased estimates.
Suppose that the real world is characterized by potentially binding
liquidity constraints. If one ignores them and consider a simpler
model without any constraints, how would it affect the estimation of
the parameter g?
To answer this question, we chose different values for g, solved the
model with liquidity constraints, and simulated it. The simulated
consumption series are used to get an estimate g^GMM such that
1X T
cg
t1
g^GMM arg min et g with et g b1 r 1:
g T t1 cg
t
The results are displayed in table 6.1. When g is low, the consumer
is less risk averse, consumes more out of the available cash on hand,
and saves less. The result is that the liquidity constraints are binding
more often. In this case the bias in the GMM estimate is the biggest.
The bias is decreasing in the proportion of liquidity-constrained
periods, as when liquidity constraints are almost absent, the stan-
dard Euler equation holds. From table 6.1 there is no value of g that
160 Chapter 6
Yt Pt Ut ;
Pt Gt Pt1 Nt :
The consumer can borrow and save freely. However, under the
assumption that there is a probability that income will be zero and
that the marginal utility of consumption is innite at zero, the con-
sumer will choose never to borrow against future income. Hence the
outcome of the model is close to the one proposed by Deaton (1991)
and presented in section 6.3.5. Note that in the model the agent can
only consume nondurables. The authors ignore the durable decision,
or equivalently assume that this decision is exogenous. This might
be a strong assumption. Fernandez-Villaverde and Krueger (2001)
argue that the joint dynamics of durables and nondurables are
important to understand the savings and consumption decisions
over the life cycle.
Dene the cash on hand as the total of assets and income:
u 0 C t bREt u 0 Ct1 :
As income is assumed to be growing over time, cash on hand and
consumption are also nonstationary. This problem can be solved by
normalizing the variables by the permanent component. Denote
xt Xt =Pt and ct C t =Pt . The normalized cash on hand evolves as
R
xt1 xt ct Ut1 :
Gt1 Nt1
Figure 6.3
Optimal consumption rule
11. The gure was computed using the following parameterization: b 0:96, g 0:5,
su2 0:0212, sn2 0:044, p 0:03. g 0 0:0196, and g1 0:0533. We are grateful to Gour-
inchas and Parker for providing us with their codes and data.
Consumption 163
Figure 6.4
Observed and predicted consumption proles
1X It
1X S
gy ln Cit ln C t Xts ; Pts ; y:
It i1 S s1
The rst part is the average log consumption for households of age
t, and It is the number of observed household in the data set. The
second part is the average predicted consumption over S simulated
paths. y is estimated by minimizing
gy 0 Wgy;
6.4 Conclusion
13. Rust and Phelan (1997) provide a good example in exploring the effects of social security
policies on labor supply and retirement decisions in a dynamic programming framework.
7 Durable Consumption
7.1 Motivation
1. In a model of habit formation, past consumption can inuence current utility even
if the consumption is of a nondurable or a service. Then the state vector is supple-
mented to keep track of that experience. For durable goods we will supplement the
state vector to take the stock of durables into account.
2. According to Baxter (1996), the volatility of durable consumption is about ve times
that of nondurable consumption.
3. To be complete, as we explain, there are also maintained assumptions about pref-
erences, shocks, and the lack of adjustment costs.
166 Chapter 7
7.2.1 Theory
D 0 D1 d e; 7:1
where d A 0; 1 is the depreciation rate for the stock of durables.
Utility depends on the ow of services from the stock of durables
and the purchases of nondurables. In terms of timing, assume that
durables bought in the current period yield services starting in the
next period. So, as with capital, there is a time lag between the order
and the use of the durable good.4
With these details in mind, the Bellman equation for the house-
hold is given by
VA; D; y; p max
0 0
uc; D bEy 0 ; p 0 j y; p VA 0 ; D 0 ; y 0 ; p 0
D ;A
A0
cAy pD 0 1 dD 7:3
R
and the transition for the stock of durables given by (7.1). The maxi-
mization gives rise to two rst-order conditions:
uc c; D bREy 0 ; p 0 j y; p VA A 0 ; D 0 ; y 0 7:4
and
uc c; Dp bEy 0 ; p 0 j y; p VD A 0 ; D 0 ; y 0 :
uc c; D bREy 0 ; p 0 j y; p uc c 0 ; D 0 7:5
and
VA; D; y; p max
0 0
uc; D 0 bEy 0 ; p 0 j y; p VA 0 ; D 0 ; y 0 ; p 0
D ;A
6. This condition does not obtain under the previous timing because of the time to
build aspect of durables assumed there.
Durable Consumption 169
Table 7.1
ARMA1; 1 estimates on U.S. and French data
No trend Linear trend
Specication a1 d a1 d
U.S. durable expenditures 1.00 (0.03) 1.5 (0.15) 0.76 (0.12) 1.42 (0.17)
U.S. car registration 0.36 (0.29) 1.34 (0.30) 0.33 (0.30) 1.35 (0.31)
France durable expenditures 0.98 (0.04) 1.20 (0.2) 0.56 (0.24) 1.2 (0.36)
France car expenditures 0.97 (0.06) 1.3 (0.2) 0.49 (0.28) 1.20 (0.32)
France car registrations 0.85 (0.13) 1.00 (0.26) 0.41 (0.4) 1.20 (0.41)
Notes: Annual data. For the United States: FRED database, 1959:11997:3. For France:
INSEE, 1970:11997:2. U.S. registration: 19681995.
where the functional equation holds for all values of the state
vector. Bernanke assumes a quadratic utility function with quadratic
adjustment costs of the form
1 a d
uc; D; D 0 c c 2 D D 2 D 0 D 2 ;
2 2 2
Figure 7.1
s; S rule
172 Chapter 7
where
b A0
V A; D; y max0 u A y e; D
e; A R
bEy 0 j y VA 0 ; D1 d e; y 0 ; 7:11
A0
V s A; D; y max0 u A y ps s; D
s; A R
bEy 0 j y VA 0 ; D1 d s; y 0 ; 7:12
8. See House and Leahy (2000) for a model of durables with an endogenous lemons
premium.
Durable Consumption 173
i A0
V A; D; y max u A y ;D
A0 R
Optimal Behavior
We start with the dynamic programming problem as specied in
Adda and Cooper (2000b). At the start of a period the household
has a car of a particular age, a level of income and a realization of a
taste shock. Formally, the households state is described by the age
of its car, i, a vector Z p; Y; e of aggregate variables, and a vector
z y of idiosyncratic variables. Here p is the relative price of the
(new) durable good. Current income is given by the sum Y y,
where Y represents aggregate income and y represents idiosyncratic
shocks to nondurable consumption that could reect variations in
household income or required expenditures on car maintenance and
other necessities.11 The nal element in the state vector is a taste
shock, e.
9. The assumption that one car is the max is just for convenience. What is important is
that the car choice set is not continuous.
10. This presentation relies heavily on Adda and Cooper (2000b).
11. Adda and Cooper (2000b) explicitly view this as a household specic income
shock, but a broader interpretation is acceptable, particularly in light of the iid as-
sumption associated with this source of variation.
176 Chapter 7
where
Vik z; Z usi ; y Y; e b1 dEVi1 z 0 ; Z 0
bdfEV1 z 0 ; Z 0 us1 ; y 0 Y 0 ; e 0
us1 ; y 0 Y 0 p 0 p; e 0 g 7:14
and
us1 ; y 0 Y 0 p 0 p; e 0 g:
In the denition of Vik z; Z, the car is assumed to be destroyed
(from accidents and breakdowns) with probability d leading the
agent to purchase a new car in the next period. The cost of a new car
in numeraire terms is p 0 p, which is stochastic since the price of a
new car in the next period is random. Further, since it is assumed
that there is no borrowing and lending, the utility cost of the new car
is given by us1 ; y 0 Y 0 ; e 0 us1 ; y 0 Y 0 p 0 p; e 0 which exceeds
p 0 p as long as u is strictly concave in nondurable consumption.
It is precisely at this point that the borrowing restriction appears as
an additional transactions cost.
Adding in either borrowing and lending or the purchase and sale
of used cars presents no modeling difculties. But adding in wealth
as well as resale prices as state variables certainly increases the
dimensionality of the problem. This remains as work in progress.
Durable Consumption 177
Further Specication
For the application the utility function is dened to be additively
separable between durables and nondurables:
" #
g ec=l 1x
usi ; c i ;
1x
12. Here only a single lag is assumed to economize on the state space of the agents
problem.
178 Chapter 7
13. As in Adda and Cooper (2000b), we assume that the costs of production are inde-
pendent of the level of production. Combined with an assumption of constant mark-
ups, this implies that the product price is independent of the cross-sectional
distribution of car vintages.
This assumption of an exogenous price process greatly simplies the empirical im-
plementation of the model, since we do not have to solve an equilibrium problem. We
have even found that adding information on the moments of the cross-sectional dis-
tribution of car vintages has no explanatory power in forecasting car prices in the
French case. Results are mixed for the U.S. case, as the average age of cars signicantly
predicts future prices.
Durable Consumption 179
Hk Zt ; y hk zt ; Zt ; yfzt dzt ;
and
ft1 1; Zt ; y St Zt ; y:
Thus, for a given y and a given draw of T aggregate shocks, one can
simulate both sales and the cross-sectional distribution. This can be
repeated N times to produce N simulated data sets of length T,
which can be used in the estimation. Dene Stn Zt ; y St pt ; Yt ; ent ; y
as the predicted aggregate sales given prices, aggregate income and
PN
unobserved taste shock ent . Dene St Zt ; y 1=N n1 Snt Zt ; y as
the average aggregate sales conditional on prices, aggregate income
and period t 1 cross-sectional distribution.
LN y aLN1 y LN2 y;
X
LN2 y a i F i F i y 2 ;
if5; 10; 15; AR; MAg
Figure 7.2
Estimated hazard function, France
Figure 7.3
Estimated hazard function, United States
182 Chapter 7
Figure 7.4
Sales of new cars, in thousands, monthly
Durable Consumption 183
the purchase of a new car. Sales of new cars which had been low in
the preceding period (see gure 7.4) increased markedly during the
period the policy was in place. In September 1995 to September 1996,
the government re-introduced the policy, with an age limit of eight
years. After September 1996, the demand for new cars collapsed at a
record low level.
As is evident in gure 7.4, the demand for cars is cyclical and fol-
lows the business cycle. The increased demand for new cars during
the period 1994 to 1996 could be due either to the policy or to the
cyclical nature of demand. If the latter is true, the French govern-
ment was wasting money on car owners who would have replaced
their cars during that period anyway. Even if the increased demand
was entirely fueled by the scrapping subsidies, the government was
paying out money to car owners who would have replaced their car
in the periods ahead anyway. The effect of the policy was then to
anticipate new sales and create future, potentially bigger cycles of
car demand. As a huge number of new cars were sold in that period,
demand for new cars dropped when the policy was ended. How-
ever, a peak in demand is expected to appear in about ten years after
the cars bought in 1995 and 1996 are scrapped.
Adda and Cooper (2000a) estimate the model in section 7.3.3 for
the prepolicy period. The scrapping price p was a constant low value
(around 500 French francs) before 1993. With the policy in place, the
scrapping price increased and was age specic:
pi 500 if i < 10;
pi 5;000 if i b 10:
State tomorrow
1 2 3 4
Figure 7.5
Transition matrix for p
184 Chapter 7
Figure 7.6
Expected aggregate sales, relative to baseline
Figure 7.7
Expected government revenue, relative to baseline
Durable Consumption 185
1. There are numerous surveys of investment. See Caballero (1999) and Chirinko
(1993), and the references therein, for further summaries of existing research.
188 Chapter 8
The unit of analysis will be the plant though for some applications
(e.g., consideration of borrowing constraints) focusing on the rm
may be more appropriate. The manager is assumed to maximize
the value of the plant: there are no incentive problems between the
manager and the owners. The problem involves the choice of factors
of production that are rented for the production period, the hiring of
labor and the accumulation of capital. To focus on the investment
decision, we assume that demand for the variable inputs (denoted
by x) is optimally determined given factor prices (represented by the
vector w) and the state variables of the plants optimization problem,
represented by A; K. Here the vector of exible factors of produc-
tion might include labor, materials, and energy inputs into the pro-
duction process.
The result of this optimization leaves a prot function, denoted by
PA; K, that depends solely on the state of the plant, where
exercise 8.2 How would you modify (8.1) to allow the managers
discount factor to be inuenced by variations in the real interest
rate?
There are no borrowing restrictions in this framework. So the
choice of investment and thus future capital is not constrained by
current prots or retained earnings. We return to this issue later in
the chapter when we discuss the implications of capital market
imperfections.
There are two costs of obtaining new capital. The rst is the direct
purchase price, denoted by p. Notice that this price is part of the
state vector as it is a source of variation in this economy.3
Second, there are costs of adjustment given by the function
CK 0 ; A; K. These costs are assumed to be internal to the plant and
might include installation costs, disruption of productive activities in
the plant, the need to retrain workers, the need to recongure other
aspects of the production process, and so on. This function is general
enough to have components of both convex and nonconvex costs of
adjustment as well as a variety of transactions costs.
2. This is corresponds to the outcome of a stochastic growth model if there are risk
neutral consumers. Otherwise, a formulation with variable real interest rates may be
warranted.
3. In many economies it is also inuenced by policy variations in the form of invest-
ment tax credits.
190 Chapter 8
bEA 0 ; p 0 j A; p Vk A 0 ; K 0 ; p 0 p; 8:2
bEA 0 ; p 0 j A; p Pk A 0 ; K 0 1 dp 0 p: 8:3
This condition has a natural interpretation. The cost of an additional
unit of capital today p is equated to the marginal return on capital.
This marginal return has two pieces: the marginal prots from the
capital, Pk A 0 ; K 0 , and the resale value of undepreciated capital at
the future price, 1 dp 0 .
Substituting for the future price of capital and iterating forward,
we nd that
X
y
pt b b1 d t EAtt j At PK Ktt1 ; Att1 ;
t0
4. Moreover the special case of no adjustment costs is generally nested in these other
models.
Investment 191
exercise 8.3 Suppose that the problem had been written, more
conventionally, with the choice of investment rather than the future
capital stock. Derive and analyze the resulting Euler equation.
pK 0 1 dK bEA 0 j A VA 0 ; K 0 : 8:6
where jrj < 1 and e 0 is white noise. The rst-order condition for the
choice of the investment level implies that the investment rate in
i 1 I=K is given by
1
i bEA 0 j A VK A 0 ; K 0 p: 8:7
g
VA; K fAK;
6. Abel and Eberly (1994) contain further discussion of the applicability of Q theory
for more general adjustment cost and prot functions.
Investment 193
Note that in this case the expected values of marginal and average Q
(dened as VA; K=K fA) are the same.7 Using this value func-
tion in the Euler equation, we write
1
i bf~A p 1 zA:
g
g
fAK AK zA 2 K pzAK bf~AK1 d zA
2
must hold for all A; K. Clearly, the guess that the value function
is proportional to K is correct: the value of K cancels out. So, from
our conjecture that VA; K is proportional to K, we nd an optimal
investment policy that conrms the suggested proportionality.
The remaining part of the unknown value function fA is given
implicity by the expression above.8
The result that the value function is proportional to the stock of
capital is, at this point, a nice property of the linear-quadratic for-
mulation of the capital accumulation problem. In the discussion of
empirical evidence it forms the basis for a wide range of applica-
tions, since it allows the researcher to substitute the average value of
Q (observable from the stock market) for marginal Q (unobservable).
7. Hayashi (1982) was the rst to point out that in this case average and marginal Q
coincide, though his formulation was nonstochastic.
8. Interestingly the natural conjecture that fA A does not satisfy the functional
equation.
194 Chapter 8
Xit
I=Kit ai0 a1 bEqit1 a2 uit : 8:8
K it
13. Cooper and Ejarque (2001) have no unobserved heterogeneity in the model so that
the constant from the regression as well as the xed effects are ignored. The remaining
coefcients are taken to be common across all rms.
14. The estimates are not sensitive to aggregate shocks. The model is essentially esti-
mated from the rich cross-sectional variation as in the panel study of Gilchrist and
Himmelberg (1995).
Investment 197
Table 8.1
Estimated structural parameters
Structural parameters
a g r s y
GH95
CE 0.689 (0.011) 0.149 (0.016) 0.106 (0.008) 0.855 (0.04) 2
Table 8.2
Regression results and moments
Reduced form coefcient estimates/moments
I p
a1 a2 sc std q
K K
GH95 0.03 0.24 0.4 0.25 3
CE 0.041 0.237 0.027 0.251 2.95
min JY:
Y
15. The computation of standard errors follows the description in chapter 4 of Gour-
ieroux and Monfort (1996).
198 Chapter 8
pK 0 1 dK bEA 0 j A VA 0 ; K 0 8:11
16. Cooper and Ejarque (2001) show that if p yh is the demand curve and
y Ak f l1f the production function, maximization of prot over the exible factor l
leads to a reduced form prot function where the exponent on capital is fh 1=
1 f1 h 1. Here f 0:33 and h 0:1315, implying a markup of about 15
percent.
Investment 199
1X
Wg et1 gAt : 8:13
T t
17. The program to estimate this model is very simple. Once Wg is programmed, it is
simply a basic routine to minimize this function. Obtaining Wg is easy too, using the
information on parameters plus observations in the data set on investment rates and
the ratio of output to capital (to determine marginal prot rates). The minimization
may not occur exactly at g 2 because of a sampling error. The interested reader can
extend this analysis to create a distribution of estimates by redrawing shocks, simu-
lating, and then re-estimating g from the GMM procedure.
200 Chapter 8
Figure 8.1
Function Wg
so that
GA; K 0; AK a 1 dK: 8:17
Table 8.3
Descriptive statistics, LRD
Variable LRD
Empirically one nds that at the plant level there are frequent peri-
ods of investment inactivity and also bursts of investment activity.
Table 8.3, taken from Cooper and Haltiwanger (2000), documents
the nature of capital adjustment in the Longitudinal Research Data-
base (LRD), a plant-level U.S. manufacturing data set.19
Here inaction is dened as a plant-level investment rate less
than 0.01 and a spike is an investment rate in excess of 20 percent.
Clearly, the data exhibit both inaction as well as large bursts of
investment.
As argued by Caballero et al. (1995), Cooper et al. (1999), and
Cooper and Haltiwanger (2000), it is difcult to match this type of
evidence with a quadratic cost of adjustment model. Thus we turn to
alternative models which can produce inaction. In the rst type of
18. If, in the example above, a 1, then the constraint is proportional to K. In this case
it appears that average and marginal Q are equal.
19. Cooper and Haltiwanger provide a full description of the data.
Investment 203
and
V a A; K; p max
0
PA; Kl FK pK 0 1 dK
K
bEA 0 ; p 0 j A; p VA 0 ; K 0 ; p 0 :
Here there are two costs of adjustment that are independent of the
level of investment activity. The rst is a loss of prot ow equal to
1 l. This is intended to capture an opportunity cost of investment
in which the plant must be shut down during a period of investment
activity. The second nonconvex cost is simply subtracted from the
ow of prots as FK. The inclusion of K here is intended to capture
the idea that these xed costs, while independent of the current level
of investment activity, may have some scale aspects to them.20 In
this formulation the relative price of capital p is allowed to vary as
well.
Before proceeding to a discussion of results, it might be useful to
recall from chapter 3 how one might obtain a solution to a problem
20. See Abel and Eberly (1994) for a model in which xed costs are proportional to K.
If these costs were independent of size, then large plants would face lower adjustment
costs (relative to their capital stock) and thus might adjust more frequently. So, as
in the quadratic specication, the costs are scaled by size. This is nevertheless an
assumption, and the relationship between plant size and investment activity is still
an open issue.
204 Chapter 8
21. Recall the outline of the basic value function iteration program for the non-
stochastic growth model and the modication of that for nonconvex adjustment costs
in chapter 3.
Investment 205
V i A; K PA; K bEA 0 j A VA 0 ; K1 d
and
V a A; K PA; 1l p bEA 0 j A VA 0 ; 1 d:
Here action means that a new machine is bought and is immedi-
ately productive. The cost of this is the net price of the new capital
and the disruption caused by the adjustment process. Let DA; K be
the relative gains to action, so
22. As discussed by Cooper and Haltiwanger (1993) and Cooper et al. (1999), this
assumption that a new machine has xed size can be derived from a model with
embodied technological progress that is rendered stationary by dividing through by
the productivity of the new machine. In this case the rate of depreciation measures
both physical deterioration and obsolescence.
206 Chapter 8
bEA 0 j A VA 0 ; 1 d EA 0 j A VA 0 ; K1 d:
The problem posed in this fashion is clearly one of the optimal
stopping variety. Given the state of protability A, there is a criti-
cal size of the capital stock K A such that machine replacement
occurs if and only if K < K A. To see why this policy is optimal,
note that by our timing assumption, V a A; K is in fact independent
of K. Clearly, V i A; K is increasing in K. Thus there is a unique
crossing of these two functions at K A. In other words, DA; K is
decreasing in K, given A with DA; K A 0.
Is K between 0 and 1? With PA; 0 sufciently small, V i A; K <
V A; K for K near 0. Hence K > 0. Further, with the costs of
a
acquiring new capital p > 0; l < 1 large enough and the rate of
depreciation low enough, capital will not be replaced each period:
K < 1. Thus there will be a replacement cycle in which there is a
burst of investment activity followed by inactivity until the capital
ages enough to warrant replacement.23
The policy function is then given by zA; K A f0; 1g, where
zA; K 0 means inaction and zA; K 1 means replacement.
From the argument above, for each A there exists K A such that
zA; K 1 if and only if K a K A.
With the assumption that capital becomes productively immedi-
ately, the response of K A to variations in A can be analyzed.24
Suppose, for example, that l 1 and A is iid. In this case the depen-
dence of DA; K on A is solely through current prots. Thus DA; K
is increasing in A as long as the marginal productivity of capital is
increasing in A, PAK A; K > 0. So K A will be increasing in A and
replacement will be more likely in good times.
Alternatively, suppose that l < 1. In this case, during periods of
high productivity, it is desirable to have new capital, but it is also
costly to install it. If A is positively serially correlated, then the effect
of A on DA; K will reect both the direct effect on current prots
and the effects on the future values. If the opportunity cost is large
(a small l) and shocks are not persistent enough, then machine
replacement will be delayed until capital is less productive.
23. Cooper and Haltiwanger (2000) and Cooper et al. (1999) argue that these features
also hold when there is a one-period lag in the installation process.
24. Cooper et al. (1999) analyze the more complicated case of a one-period lag in the
installation of new capital.
Investment 207
8.5.2 Irreversibility
and
V i A; K PA; K bEA 0 j A VA 0 ; K1 d:
Under the buy option, the plant obtains capital at a cost normal-
ized to one. Under the sell option, the plant retires R units of capital
at a price ps . The third option is inaction, so the capital stock depre-
ciates at a rate of d. Intuitively the gap between the buying and sell-
ing price of capital will produce inaction. Suppose that there is an
adverse shock to the protability of the plant. If this shock was
known to be temporary, then selling capital and repurchasing it
in the near future would not be protable for the plant as long as
ps < 1. Thus inaction may be optimal. Clearly, though, the amount
of inaction that this model can produce will depend on both the size
of ps relative to 1 and the serial correlation of the shocks.25
25. An interesting extension of the model would make this gap endogenous.
26. The data set is described by Cooper and Haltiwanger (2000) and is for a balanced
panel of U.S. manufacturing plants. Comparable data sets are available in other coun-
tries. Similar estimation exercises using these data sets would be of considerable
interest.
210 Chapter 8
g
V b A; K max PA; K FK I I=K 2 K
I 2
bEA 0 j A VA 0 ; K1 d I;
g
V s A; K max PA; K ps R FK R=K 2 K
R 2
bEA 0 j A VA 0 ; K1 d R;
and
V i A; K PA; K bEA 0 j A VA 0 ; K1 d:
27. See the discussion by Cooper and Haltiwanger (2000) of the estimation of this
prot function.
28. More recent versions of the Cooper-Haltiwanger paper explore adding lagged
investment rates to this reduced form to pick up some of the dynamics of the adjust-
ment process.
29. This is an important step in the analysis. Determining the nature of adjustment
costs will depend on the characterization of the underlying protability shocks. For
example, if a researcher is trying to identify nonconvex adjustment costs from bursts
of investment, then getting the distribution of shocks right is critical.
Investment 211
Table 8.4
Parameter estimates
Structural parameter Parameter estimate
estimates (s.e.) for (8.22)
Speci-
cation g F ps c0 c1 c2
LRD 0.013 0.265 0.20
All 0.043 0.00039 0.967 0.013 0.255 0.171
(0.00224) (0.0000549) (0.00112)
F only 0 0.0333 1 0.02 0.317 0.268
(0.0000155)
g only 0.125 0 1 0.007 0.241 0.103
(0.000105)
ps only 0 0 0.93 0.016 0.266 0.223
(0.000312)
Table 8.4 reports Cooper and Haltiwangers results for four dif-
ferent models along with standard errors. The rst row shows the
estimated parameters for the most general model. The parameter
vector Y 0:043; 0:00039; 0:967 implies the presence of statistically
signicant convex and nonconvex adjustment costs (but nonzero)
and a relatively substantial transaction cost. Restricted versions of
the model are also reported for purposes of comparison. Clearly, the
mixed model does better than any of the restricted models.
Cooper and Haltiwanger argue that these results are reasonable.30
First, as noted above a low level for the convex cost of adjustment
parameter is consistent with the estimates obtained from the Q
theory based models due to the presence of imperfect competition.
Further the estimation implies that the xed cost of adjustment
is about 0.04 percent of average plant-level prots. Cooper and Hal-
tiwanger nd that this cost is signicant relative to the difference
between adjusting and not adjusting the capital stock. So in fact the
estimated xed cost of adjustment, along with the irreversibility,
produces a large amount of inaction. Finally the estimated selling
price of capital is much higher than the estimate report in Ramey
and Shapiro (2001) for some plants in the aerospace industry.
Cooper and Haltiwanger (2000) also explore the aggregate impli-
cations of their model. They contrast the time series behavior of the
30. The results are robust to allowing the discount factor to vary with the aggregate
shock in order to mimic the relationship between real interest rates and consumption
growth from a households Euler equation.
212 Chapter 8
where
V i A; K; F PA; K bEA 0 j A VA 0 ; K1 d; F 0
and
V a A; K; F max
0
PA; Kl FK pK 0 1 dK
K
bEA 0 j A VA 0 ; K 0 ; F 0 :
Here we have added the xed cost of adjustment into the state
vector as we assume that the adjustment costs are random at the
plant level. Let GF represent the cumulative distribution function
for these adjustment costs. Assume that these are iid shocks. Then,
given a guess for the functions fVA; K; F; V i A; K; F; V a A; K; Fg,
the likelihood of inaction can be computed directly from the cumu-
lative distribution function G. Thus a likelihood function can be
constructed that depends on the parameters of the distribution of
adjustment costs and those underlying the dynamic optimization
Investment 213
8.7 Conclusion
The theme of this chapter has been the dynamics of capital accumu-
lation. From the plant-level perspective, the investment process is
quite rich and entails periods of intense activity followed by times
of inaction. This has been documented at the plant level. Using the
techniques of the estimation of dynamic programming models, this
chapter has presented evidence on the nature of adjustment costs.
Many open issues remain. First, the time series implications of
nonconvexities is still not clear. How much does the lumpiness at the
plant-level matter for aggregate behavior? Put differently, how much
smoothing obtains from the aggregate across heterogeneous plants
as well as through variations in relative prices?
Second, there are a host of policy experiments to be considered.
What, for example, are the implications of investment tax credits
given the estimates of adjustment cost parameters?
exercise 8.6 Add in variations in the price of new capital into the
optimization problem given in (8.21). How would you use this to
study the impact of, say, an investment tax credit?
31. The interested reader should read closely the discussion of Rust (1987) and the
papers that followed this line of work. Note that often assumptions are made on G
to ease the computation of the likelihood function.
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9 Dynamics of Employment
Adjustment
9.1 Motivation
1. Here we are also assuming that the discount factor is xed. In general, the discount
would depend on a and a 0 .
2. In contrast to the chapter on capital adjustment, here we assume that there are no
costs to adjusting the stock of capital. This is for convenience only, and a complete
model would incorporate both forms of adjustment costs.
Dynamics of Employment Adjustment 217
allows for overtime pay and other provisions. Assume that this
compensation function is increasing in both of its arguments and is
convex with respect to hours. Further we allow this compensation
function to be state dependent. This may reect a covariance with
the idiosyncratic protability shocks (due, perhaps, to prot-sharing
arrangements) or an exogenous stochastic component in aggregate
wages.
The function Ce; e1 is the cost of adjusting the number of
workers. Hamermesh (1993) and Hamermesh and Pfann (1996) pro-
vide a lengthy discussion of various interpretations and motivations
for adjustment costs. This function is meant to cover costs associated
with the following:
0
Search and recruiting
0
Training
0
Explicit ring costs
0
Variations in complementary activities (capital accumulation, reor-
ganization of production activities, etc.)
It is important to note the timing implicit in the statement of the
optimization problem. The state vector includes the stock of workers
in the previous period, e1 . In contrast to the capital accumulation
problem, the number of workers in the current period is not pre-
determined. Instead, workers hired in the current period are imme-
diately utilized in the production process: there is no time to build.
The next section of the chapter is devoted to the study of adjust-
ment cost functions such that the marginal cost of adjustment is
positive and increasing in e given e1 . We then turn to more general
adjustment cost functions that allow for more nonlinear and discon-
tinuous behavior.
h
Ce; e1 e 1 qe1 2 ; 9:2
2
218 Chapter 9
Rh A; e; h oh e; h; A; 9:3
Re A; e; h oe e; h; A he 1 qe1 bEVe A 0 ; e 0: 9:4
~ 0 h
o
1h :
~ h
o
So, in the absence of adjustment costs and with the functional forms
given above, hours are independent of both e and A. Consequently
all variations in the labor input arise from variations in the number
of workers rather than hours. This is efcient given that the marginal
cost of hours is increasing in the number of hours worked while
there are no adjustment costs associated with varying the number of
workers.
At another extreme, suppose there are adjustment costs h 0 0.
Further, suppose that compensation is simply
oe; h; A eh;
A Simulated Example
Here we follow Cooper and Willis (2001) and study the policy func-
tions generated by a quadratic adjustment cost model with some
particular functional form assumptions.5 Suppose that output is
oe; h w e w0 h w1 h 40 w2 h 40 2 ; 9:8
where w is the straight-time wage.
Instead of working with (9.5), Cooper and Willis (2001) solve
the dynamic programming problem (9.1) with the functional forms
above, using value function iteration. The functional equation for the
problem is
h e e1 2
VA; e1 max Aeh a oe; h
h; e 2 e1
6. The literature on labor adjustment costs contains both specications. Cooper and
Willis (2001) nd that their results are not sensitive to this part of the specication.
Dynamics of Employment Adjustment 221
Figure 9.1
Employment policy functions: Quadratic costs
0
fA; e1 is increasing in e1 .
0
fA; e1 is increasing in A. As protability increases, so does the
marginal gain to adjustment, and thus e is higher.
The quadratic adjustment cost model can be estimated either from
plant (rm) data or aggregate data. To illustrate this, we next discuss
the approach of Sargent (1978). We then discuss a more general
approach to estimation in a model with a richer specication of
adjustment costs.
exercise 9.1 Write down the necessary conditions for the optimal
choices of hours and employment in (9.9). Provide an interpretation
of these conditions.
R1 2
RA; e R0 Ae e : 9:10
2
X
in
wt n0 ni wti zt : 9:11
i1
8. The factors that help the rm forecast future wages are then included in the state
space of the problem; that is, they are in the aggregate component of A.
Dynamics of Employment Adjustment 223
9. Sargent (1978) estimates a model with both regular and overtime employment. For
simplicity we presented the model of regular employment alone.
10. He also discusses at length the issue of identication and nds multiple peaks in
the likelihood function. Informally the issue is distinguishing between the serial cor-
relation in employment induced by lagged employment from that induced by the
serial correlation of the productivity shocks.
224 Chapter 9
11. This inaction rate is too high relative to observation: the parameterization is for
illustration only.
226 Chapter 9
Figure 9.2
Employment policy functions: Piecewise linear adjustment costs
12. This depiction motivates consideration of a search model as the primitive that
underlies a model of adjustment costs. See the discussion of Yashiv (2000) in chapter
10.
Dynamics of Employment Adjustment 227
Figure 9.3
Employment policy functions: Nonconvex adjustment costs
9.4.3 Asymmetries
13. At this level of xed costs, there is about 50 percent employment inaction. Again,
the parameterization is just for illustration.
Dynamics of Employment Adjustment 229
1
Ce; e1 1 e gD e gD e hD e 2 ; 9:17
2
The work in Caballero and Engel (1993b) and Caballero et al. (1997)
pursues an alternative approach to studying dynamic labor adjust-
ment. Instead of solving an explicit dynamic optimization problem,
they postulate that labor adjustment will respond to a gap between
the actual and desired employment level at a plant. They then test
for nonlinearities in this relationship.
230 Chapter 9
e e 2 k
Le ; e1 min e e1 2 bEe0 j e Le0 ; e; 9:19
e 2 2
14. This presentation draws heavily on Cooper and Willis (2001). We are grateful to
John Haltiwanger and Jon Willis for helpful discussions on this topic.
15. The structure is used to study adjustment of capital as well.
Dynamics of Employment Adjustment 231
where the loss depends on the gap between the current stock of
workers e and the target e . The target is taken as an exogenous
process, though in general it reects the underlying shocks to prot-
ability that are explicit in the optimizing model. In particular, sup-
pose that e follows an AR(1) process with serial correlation of r.
Further assume that there are quadratic adjustment costs, para-
meterized by k.
The rst-order condition to the optimization problem is
1 bkl1 r
l1 9:23
1 k bkl2 1
and
k
l2 : 9:24
1 k bkl2 1
Here ei; t1 is number of workers inherited from the previous period.
So ~zi; t measures the gap between the desired and actual levels of
employment in period t, prior to any adjustments, but after any rel-
evant period t random variables are realized as these shocks are
embedded in the target and thus the gap.
The policy function for the rm is assumed to be16
16. Based on discussions above, the policy function of the rm should depend jointly
on A; e1 and not on the gap alone.
Dynamics of Employment Adjustment 233
0
The relationship between the average adjustment rate and the gap
is nonlinear.
0
There is some evidence of inaction in employment adjustment.
0
Aggregate employment growth depends on the second moment of
the distribution of employment gaps.
17. This point was made some years ago. Nickell (1978) says: . . . the majority of
existing models of factor demand simply analyze the optimal adjustment of the rm
towards a static equilibrium and it is very difcult to deduce from this anything
whatever about optimal behavior when there is no equilibrium to aim at.
Dynamics of Employment Adjustment 235
18. The process is taken from the Cooper and Haltiwanger (2000) study of capital
adjustment. As these shocks were measured using static labor rst-order condition,
Cooper and Willis (2001) study the robustness of their results to variations in these
Markov processes.
19. This discussion parallels the approach in Cooper and Haltiwanger (2000).
236 Chapter 9
As above, let
20. However, see the discussion of Aguirregabiria (1997) for progress in this direction.
21. Of course, it then becomes a question of identication: Can one distinguish
between the nonconvex and piecewise linear models.
22. Note that Y would include the parameters of the stochastic processes.
23. This is the goal of an ongoing project.
238 Chapter 9
Figure 9.4
Employment policy functions: Mixed adjustment costs
9.7 Conclusion
This point of this chapter has been to explore the dynamics of labor
adjustment. In the presence of adjustment costs, the conventional
model of static labor demand is replaced by a possibly complex
dynamic optimization problem. Solving these problems and esti-
mating parameters using either plant-level or aggregate observations
is certainly feasible using the techniques developed in this book.
In terms of policy implications, governments often impose
restrictions on employment and hours. The dynamic optimization
framework facilitates the analysis of those interventions.24 Further
24. In some cases a more general equilibrium approach is needed to assess the com-
plete implications of the policy.
Dynamics of Employment Adjustment 239
25. This suggestion is along the lines of the so-called natural experimental approach to
estimation where the researcher searches for exogenous events that may allow for
the identication of key parameters. Evaluating this approach in the context of struc-
tural model is an exercise of some interest.
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10 Future Developments
Here all variables are nominal. The price of product i is p while the
general price level is P. Finally, nominal spending, taken to be exog-
enous and stochastic, is denoted D.
Given this specication of demand and the realized state, p; D; P,
the rms real prots are
p
p p; D; P qid p; D; P cqid p; D; P; 10:2
P
2. This is similar to the stochastic adjustment cost structure used by Rust (1987).
3. As discussed, for example, in Blanchard and Kiyotaki (1987), there is a com-
plementarity that naturally arises in the pricing decisions in this environment.
244 Chapter 10
4. This may entail adding additional elements to the state space; see Adda and Cooper
(2000a) and Willis (2000a) for discussions of this point.
5. Ball and Romer (1990) provide an example. John and Wolman (1999) study these
issues in a dynamic setting of price adjustment.
6. The contribution here is bringing the dynamic menu cost model to the data. Bils
and Klenow (2002) provide further evidence on price-setting behavior based on BLS
price data.
Future Developments 245
0
Number of years since the last price adjustment.
0
Cumulative ination since the last price adjustment.
0
Cumulative growth in industry demand since the last price
adjustment.
0
Current ination.
0
Current industry demand.
At the individual level, rms solve a version of (10.3) where the cost
of adjustment F is assumed to be iid. Further heterogeneity across
rms is restricted to two dimensions, F; p. That is, rms may be in
different states because they began the period with a different price
or because their price adjustment cost for that period is different
from that of other rms. There is a very important consequence of
this restricted form of heterogeneity: if two rms choose to adjust,
they select the same price.
Interestingly Dotsey et al. (1999) solve the dynamic optimization
problem of a rm by using a rst-order condition. This is somewhat
surprising as we have not used rst-order conditions to characterize
the solutions to dynamic discrete choice problems. Consider the
choice of a price by a rm conditional on adjustment, as in (10.4).
The rm optimally sets the price taking into account the effects on
current prots and on the future value.
In the price-setting model the price only effects the future value if
the rm elects not to adjust in the next period. If the rm adjusts its
Future Developments 247
price in the next period, as in (10.4), then the value of the price at the
start of the period is irrelevant.
So there is a rst-order condition that weighs the effects of
the price on current prots and on future values along the no-
adjustment branch of the value function. As long as the value func-
tion of the rm along this branch is differentiable in p~, there will be
a rst-order condition characterizing this optimal choice given by
8. In principle, one could use this condition for estimation of some parameters of
the model taking orthogonality conditions as moments. See the discussion of this point
by Pakes (1994) and Aguirregabiria (1997), where the latter paper includes a labor
example.
248 Chapter 10
0
An unanticipated, permanent monetary expansion leads to higher
prices and higher output at impact, and there is some persistence in
the output effects.
0
As the money shocks become less persistent, the price response
dampens and consequently the output effect is larger.
This discussion of the aggregate implications of monetary shocks
in an environment with state-dependent prices nicely complements
our earlier discussion of the estimation of a state-dependent pricing
model using micro data. Clearly, there is an open issue here con-
cerning the estimation of a state-dependent pricing model using
aggregate data.9
9. The ndings of Dotsey et al. (1999) are based on a parameterization of the adjust-
ment cost distribution and the other assumptions noted above. Whether these prop-
erties obtain in an estimated model is an open issue. See Willis (2000b) for progress on
this issue.
10. See the discussion in Arrow et al. (1951) and the references therein.
Future Developments 249
Here the state vector is the level of sales s and the stock of inven-
tories at the start of the period, I. The level of sales is assumed to be
random and outside of the rms control. From sales, the rm earns
revenues of rs. The rm chooses its level of production y where
cy is a strictly increasing, strictly convex cost function. Inventories
at the start of the next period are given by a transition equation
I 0 RI y s; 10:8
where R is the return on a marginal unit of inventory (which may
be less than unity).11 From this problem, a necessary condition for
optimality is
c 0 y bREs 0 j s c 0 y 0 ; 10:9
where future output is stochastic and will generally depend on the
sales realization in the next period.
To make clear the idea of production smoothing, suppose that
sales follow an iid process: Es 0 j s s is independent of s. In this case the
right-hand side of (10.9) is independent of the current realization of
sales. Hence, since (10.9) must hold for all s, the left-hand side must
be constant too. Since production costs are assumed to be strictly
convex, this implies that y must be independent of s.
11. Taken literally R in excess of unity means that inventories accumulate on their
own, which may seem odd. The literature is much more explicit about various mar-
ginal gains to holding inventories. If R is less than unity, than output will be inde-
pendent of the state but will be rising over time. This policy may require negative
inventories, an issue we address below.
12. See Blinder (1986), Blinder and Maccini (1991), and the references therein, for the
extensive literature on these points.
250 Chapter 10
In this case inventories are used so that goods can be produced dur-
ing periods of relatively low cost and, in the absence of demand
variations, sold smoothly over time.13
Kahn (1987) studies a model of stock-out avoidance. Note that in
(10.7), the seller was allowed to hold negative inventories. As dis-
cussed in Kahn (1987), some researchers add a nonnegativity con-
straint to the inventory problem, while others are more explicit
about a cost of being away from a target level of inventories (e.g., a
fraction of sales). Kahn (1987) nds that even without a strictly con-
vex cost function, the nonnegativity constraint alone can increase the
volatility of output relative to sales.
13. See, for example, the discussion in Blinder (1986), Eichenbaum (1989), and Chris-
tiano (1988).
Future Developments 251
and
v n x; y rs bEx 0 j x vx 0 ; y s1 d: 10:15
14. Hall (2000) studies a model of production scheduling using data on automobile
assembly plants and nds some support for hypothesis that nonconvexities in the
production process lie behind the observations on the relative volatility of production
and sales.
15. See Scarf (1959) for developments of this argument.
16. Hall and Rust (2000) examine a model of optimal inventory behavior in an envi-
ronment where there is a xed ordering cost with a stochastic product price. They
argue that a calibrated version of their model ts important aspects of their data from
a U.S. steel wholesaler.
252 Chapter 10
So, when demand is less than output and the stock of inventories,
then sales equal demand and the price elasticity of sales is equal to
that of demand. But, when demand exceeds q I, then the elasticity
of sales with respect to price is zero: when the stock-out constraint
binds, realized demand is very inelastic. In the model of Aguirre-
gabiria (1999) the rm chooses its price and the level of inventories
prior to the realizations of a demand shock so that stock-outs may
occur.
Aguirregabiria (1999) estimates the model using monthly data on
a supermarket chain. His initial estimation is of a reduced form
model for the choice to adjust prices and/or inventories. In this dis-
crete choice framework he nds an interesting interaction between
the adjustments of inventories and prices. The level of inventories
are signicant in the likelihood of price adjustment: large inventories
increases the probability of price adjustment.
Aguirregabiria (1999) estimates a structural model based upon a
dynamic programming model.18 He nds support for the presence of
both types of lump-sum adjustment costs. Moreover he argues that
the costs of increasing a price appear to exceed the cost of price
reductions.
The grand problem we consider here allows for adjustment costs for
both labor and capital.19 Intuitively many of the stories of adjust-
ment costs for one factor have implications for the adjustment of the
other. For example, if part of the adjustment cost for capital requires
the shutting down of a plant to install new equipment, then this
may also be a good time to train new workers. Moreover we observe
inaction in the adjustment of both labor and capital and bursts as
well. So it seems reasonable to entertain the possibility that both
factors are costly to adjust and that the adjustment processes are
interdependent.
For this more general dynamic factor demand problem, we assume
that the dynamic programming problem for a plant is given by
18. The estimation methodology is complex and the reader is urged to study Aguir-
regabiria (1999).
19. Estimation of this more general structure using plant level data is part of ongoing
research of R. Cooper and J. Haltiwanger. See Sakellaris (2001) for some interesting
facts concerning the interaction of capital and labor adjustment.
Future Developments 255
VA; K; L max
0 0
PA; K; L 0 ; h oL 0 ; h; K; A CA; K; L; K 0 ; L 0
K ;L ;h
Alternatively, one can use the rst-order conditions for the indi-
viduals optimization problem. As all agents are identical and all
shocks are common, the representative household will accumulate
its own capital, supply its own labor, and interact with other agents
only due to the technological complementarity. In a symmetric
equilibrium, yt Yt . As in Baxter and King (1991), this equilibrium
condition is neatly imposed through the rst-order conditions when
the marginal products of labor and capital are calculated. From the
set of rst-order conditions, the symmetric equilibrium can be ana-
lyzed through by approximation around a steady state.
The distinguishing feature of this economy from the traditional
real business cycle model is the presence of the technological com-
plementarity parameters, g and e. It is possible to estimate these
parameters directly from the production function or to infer them
from the equilibrium relationships.22
This is a very large and active area of research in which the struc-
tural approach to individual decision making has found fertile
ground. This partly reects the elegance of the search problem at the
individual level, the important policy question surrounding the pro-
vision of unemployment insurance and the existence of rich data sets
on rms and workers. This subsection will only introduce the prob-
lem and briey touch on empirical methodology and results.
The worker either accepts the job, the rst option, or rejects it in
favor of taking a draw in the next period.
Given the assumption of iid draws, the return to another draw,
Evo 0 , is just a constant, denoted k. It is intuitive to think of this
functional equation from the perspective of value function iteration.
For a given value of k, (10.25) implies a function vo. Use this to
create a new expected value of search and thus a new value for k.
Continue to iterate in this fashion until the process converges.25
Clearly, the gain to accepting the job is increasing in o, while
the return associated with rejecting the job and drawing again is
independent of o. Assuming that the lower (upper) support of the
wage offer distribution is sufciently low (high) relative to b, there
will exist a critical wage, termed the reservation wage, such that the
worker is indifferent between accepting and rejecting the job. The
reservation wage, w is determined from
uw
ub bk; 10:26
1b
where
y
k Evw vw dFw
y
y
uw
Fw ub bk dFw: 10:27
w 1 b
25. Writing a small program to do this would be a useful exercise. Note that this
dynamic programming model is close to the discrete cake-eating problem presented
in chapters 2 to 4.
Future Developments 259
Fw k 1 Fw : 10:28
The likelihood function for this problem is equivalent to the coin-
ipping example that we introduced in chapter 4. There we saw that
the likelihood function would provide a way to estimate the proba-
bility of heads but would not allow the researcher to identify the
parameters that jointly determine this probability.
The same point is true for the search problem. Using (10.28) for all
agents in the sample, we can represent the likelihood of observing
the various durations of search. But, in the end, the likelihood will
only depend on the vector Y through w .
Wolpin (1987) estimates a version of this search model with a
nite horizon and costly search. This implies, among other things,
that the reservation wage is not constant as the problem is no longer
stationary. Instead, he argues that the reservation wage falls over
time.27 This time variation in the reservation wage is useful for
identication since it creates time variation in the acceptance proba-
bility for given Y.
Wolpin (1987) also assumes that agents receive an offer each
period with a probability less than one. In order to estimate the
model, he species a function for the likelihood an agent receives an
26. Here Y would include the parameters for the individual agent (e.g., those charac-
terizing uw as well as b) and the parameters of the wage distribution.
27. Sometimes unobserved heterogeneity is added to create the same effect.
260 Chapter 10
10.6.3 Extensions
V U X; e bX bEh 0 maxV U X; e; V W X; 0; e; h 0 :
When employed, the labor market experience evolves as X 0 X 1,
and seniority, S, evolves in a similar way. When unemployed, the
individual earns an unemployment benet bX and receive at the
28. Adda et al. (2002) estimate a related model using panel data of German workers.
262 Chapter 10
Equilibrium Search
Yashiv (2000) species and estimates a model of search and match-
ing. The important feature of this exercise is that it accounts for the
behavior of both rms and workers. In this model unemployed
workers search for jobs and rms with vacancies search for workers.
Firms have stochastic prot functions and face costs of attracting
workers through the posting of vacancies. Workers have an objective
of maximizing the discounted expected earnings. Workers too face a
cost of search and choose their search intensity. These choices yield
Euler equations which are used in the GMM estimation.
The key piece of the model is a matching function that brings the
search of the workers and the vacancies of the rms together. The
matching function has inputs of the vacancies opened by rms
and the search intensity by the unemployed workers. Though all
agents (rms and workers) take the matching probability as given,
this probability is determined by their joint efforts in equilibrium.
Empirically an important component of the analysis is the estima-
tion of the matching function. Yashiv (2000) nds that the matching
function exhibits increasing returns, contrary to the assumption
made in much of the empirical literature on matching.
There is a very interesting link between this research and the dis-
cussion of dynamic labor demand. While researchers have specied
labor adjustment costs, the exact source of these costs is less clear.
The analysis in Yashiv (2000) is a step toward bridging this gap: he
provides an interpretation of labor adjustment costs in the estimated
search model.
Future Developments 263
10.7 Conclusion
29. As noted earlier, Willis (2000b) makes some progress on this in a pricing prob-
lem, and Thomas (2000) studies some of these issues in the context of an investment
problem.
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