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New York, August, 2015 Black Book reports that the supply of used vehicles
is going to increase which will put more downward pressure on values of used
vehicles. New vehicle sales have increased consistently over the last 5 years after
the recession. The new light vehicle sales dropped to 10.4 million in 2009. In 2014,
new vehicle sales finished at 16.4 million units and Black Book is forecasting the
new vehicle sales for 2015 to be 16.9 million units.
As new sales generate used vehicles, the supply of used vehicles has been
consistently improving since 2010. However, as the economy improved after the
recession, used vehicle demand has also increased which allowed the markets to
absorb the increased supply of used vehicles and keep prices elevated.
The annual depreciation rate on used vehicles in 2014 was 12.1%. Black Book believes annual depreciation levels on
used vehicles will continue to trend towards pre-recession historical rates and climb to 14.0-14.5% in 2015.
Despite seeing marginally lower used vehicle values during the first half of 2015, current depreciation rates have not
materially impacted asset performance in any auto ABS sectors (auto loan, lease and rental fleet ABS) through the first
half of the year. Auto loan ABS annualized losses have been stable this year despite rising off record low levels, and
were still below the strong 2005-2006 period. Subprime auto loan ABS loss rates have moved higher in 2015 exhibiting
some volatility, but are still well below peak recessionary levels. Slightly lower recovery rates and thus marginally higher
depreciation rates, along with weaker collateral and credit quality in the 2013-14 securitized pools has been the main
contributor to higher subprime losses in 2015.
Fitchs auto lease ABS residual value index exhibited more sensitivity to lower residual values in 2015, but through July
continues to record gains albeit at lower levels than during the same period in 2014. Depreciation rates in the rental fleet
ABS sector are stable in 2015, consistent with Black Books view on rates, and Fitch has not seen any material impact
on rental car companies fleet through the first half of the year.
Importantly, auto ABS pools that have diverse vehicle concentrations from a segment and model perspective, will exhibit
less volatility to changes in depreciation rates across segments. This is due to factors that impact vehicle values including
gas prices, state of certain industries (for example housing which can drive demand and values of trucks), seasonal
patterns (including the strong tax refund spring period which drives vehicle sales), and low interest rates and manufacturer
subvention. Black Book discusses these trends in greater detail in this report, and vehicle segment diversity present in
auto ABS pools, or lack thereof, can drive loss severity up or down, and ultimately impact loss rates.
Several factors have been driving strength in the market in the past 5
years. Improvement in economic conditions, primarily job growth, has Black Book Vehicle Depreciation Rates
improved the demand for automobiles. Since new vehicle sales were Annual Depreciation**
2011 7.7%
suppressed during the recession, the supply of used vehicles has been
2012 12.4%
low. In addition, credit availability has been a key driver with interest 2013 12.8%
rates staying very low. As delinquency levels have remained low, auto 2014 12.1%
loan underwriting standards have not been tightened and low APR in 2015* 14.5%
auto financing has allowed loan payments to be affordable. *Forecast
** Depreciation of 2-6 year old vehicles.
The first quarter of this year saw broad strength in the market as demand picked up with continued improvement in
the economy and low gas prices. However, with gas prices remaining low, there has been a significant impact on most
segments. Barring a few luxury brand electric models where the demand is stronger than supply, the mainstream brand
three-year old electric vehicles are selling at prices close to their gasoline counterparts. On the other hand, the trucks
and SUVs posted strong value retention in the year. The full size van market saw continued strength as those units were
impacted in supply due to production changes from older style vans to a newer European body style.
Leasing levels rose significantly in 2013, which will increase supply of off-lease vehicles. This increased supply in some
segments will lead to increased depreciation. According to Black Books forecast, smaller cars and luxury cars will continue
to experience higher depreciation due to increased competition and supply.
Fitch is observing diverging trends in loss rates in the prime and subprime auto ABS sectors, with subprime losses rising
notably year-over-year through June this year, while prime losses have remained low. As mentioned previously, the rise
in subprime losses has been driven mostly by lower credit quality, longer loan terms and higher loan-to-values (LTV) in
the 2013-2015 subprime securitized pools. Collateral and credit quality was strong historically in the prior securitized
2010-2012 subprime ABS transactions when compared to the most recent vintage transactions. Depreciation rates
have not had much impact on subprime asset performance to date this year, but this could change if recovery rate drop
materially but this is not predicted despite pressure on the wholesale vehicle values in the latter half of 2015.
Prime auto loan ABS 60+ days delinquencies were at 0.36% in July, 9% higher versus a year earlier. Delinquencies have
ranged from between 0.28%-0.46% in 2015, a relatively tight band and low on a historical level. Prime annualized net
losses (ANL) were at 0.42% through July, up 45% over a year ago but loss rates are still very low and Junes level was well
below the historical average of 0.93% dating back to 2001. The peak loss rate in 2015 was 0.52% through June this year.
In the subprime sector, 60+ delinquencies hit 4.0% in July and were 22% above June 2014. The peak in 2015 through
June was 4.75%, while the historical average was 3.19%. As mentioned above, subprime losses are rising and moved up
to 5.39% in July, 9% above May and 20% higher compared to a year earlier. Subprime ANL hit a peak of 8.19% back in
January, and have exhibited a rising, volatile trend this year driven but reasons mentioned earlier. The peak subprime loss
rate was 10-13% recorded back in early 2009, so despite moving higher this year losses remain well below peak levels.
The 2013-2014 vintages are displaying higher losses relative to the strongest 2010-2012 vintages.
Residual values are under pressure from rising vehicle trade-ins and lease returns, which have both increased notably
as new vehicle sales jumped higher over the past three years. The leasing market volume has seen significant growth
over the past three years, and returns have thus increased dramatically as these vehicles hit their lease end maturities,
and will rise higher in the remainder of 2015. Returning lease volumes, totaling approximately 3.81 million units from
auto lease ABS transactions rated by Fitch, will hit the wholesale market in the second half of 2015. This will be up 24%
versus 2014 volumes, and naturally constrain residuals in the latter part of the year.
Despite the pressure on residuals this year, overall asset performance in auto lease ABS securitizations is expected to
be stable, while Fitch continues to have a positive outlook for ratings performance. The agencys positive rating outlook is
driven by the number of subordinate note classes coming up for review in 2015, combined with stable asset performance
even with lower residual gains this year. To date this year, Fitch upgraded seven subordinate tranches from five lease
transactions through early August, versus ten from six deals in full-year 2014.
Reviewing the index trend of 2008 model year vehicles below, truck segments have experienced lower depreciation
over the long run but have also experience higher volatility across certain segments. Some truck segments are showing
unusual strength driven by lower supply. Top 5 segments that retained best value are Compact SUV, Full-size Vans,
Compact Pickup, Full-Size SUV and Compact CUV. Compact SUV led by the iconic Jeep Wrangler has been a consistent
leader in the long term trends.
The strong truck segments are also growing in market share, thus contributing to the overall market strength. With the
price of gas forecasted to remain low in the next few years and the demand for trucks, particularly SUVs and pickups,
continuing to rise, we expect truck segments to retain stronger values.
A vehicle market that experiences strength will always have a period of adjustment to get back to its fundamental trends.
As supplies build up for products in demand, the economics will subsequently balance to lower the price. The truck
market generally displays more volatility due to the types of vehicles included. For example a compact crossover serves
a much different need functionally than a full-size cargo van or three-quarter ton pickup truck.
New car sales volume of 16.5 million units in 2014 was higher than expected. We project this to climb to 16.9 million units
in 2015. Black Book expects the used supply to come back up to the levels prior to recession in 2016, which will result in
more traditional used vehicle depreciation levels in 2016 and later.
Black Book collects extensive data from auctions around the country. With over 18,000 unique vehicles listed in the
primary database of published vehicles up to 15 model years old, and auction and remarketing data consisting of almost
300,000 actual sold vehicle records each month, Black Book editors are able to publish the daily updated used market
values. This report presents the month over month depreciation of used vehicle values sold at wholesale auctions.
Black Book
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is available to industry qualified users through our subscription products, mobile applications and licensing agreements. A leading
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is published daily by National Auto Research, a division of Hearst Business media, and maintains offices in Georgia, Florida, and
Maryland. For more information, please visit BlackBookAuto.com or call 800.554.1026.
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