DEBRE MARKOS

UNIVERSITY
College of Technology
Department of Electrical &Computer
Engineering

Power System Planning and

Operation
chapter 1: Load Forecasting
 Power system planning
Definition
A process in which the aim is to decide on
new as well as upgrading existing system
elements, to adequately satisfy the loads for
a foreseen future.

Elements can be:

Generation facilities
Substations
Transmission lines and/or cables
Capacitors/Reactors
Etc.
Lecture-1
 Power system planning

Decision should be
Where to allocate the element (for
instance, the sending and receiving end of
a line),
When to install the element (for instance,
2020),
What to select, in terms of the element
specifications (for instance, number of
bundles and conductor type).

The loads should be adequately satisfied.

Lecture-1
 Load forecasting
The first crucial step for any planning study.
Forecasting refers to the prediction of the load
behaviour for the future.
Words such as, demand and consumption are also
used instead of electric load.
Energy (MWh, kWh) and power (MW,kW) are the two
basic parameters of a load.
By load, we mean the power.
Demand forecast
To determine capacity of generation, transmission and
distribution required
Energy forecast
To determine the type of generation facilities required

Lecture-1
 Load curves
Variations in load on a power station from
time to time
Daily load curves
Monthly load curves
Annual load curves
Load curve gives:
Variation of load during different time
Total no. of units generated
Maximum demand
Average load on a power station
Load factor
Lecture-1
 REPRESENTATION OF LOADS

The design and operation of power systems both economically and

electrically are greatly influenced by the nature and magnitude of loads.
A typical composition of loads at a bus may be
Induction motors 55-75%
Synchronous motors 5-15%
Lighting and heating 20-30%
In most of the analytical work one of the following three ways of load
representation is used.
(i) Constant Power Representation: Load flow studies

(ii) Constant Current Representation:

P - jQ
I I
V*
(iii) Constant Impedance Representation: stability studies
Z V/I (V V*)/(P-jQ) 1/Y
 Types of loads
Five broad categories:
Domestic
Demand factor: 70-100%
Diversity factor: 1.2-1.3
Load factor: 10-15%
Commercial
Demand factor: 90-100%
Diversity factor: 1.1-1.2
Load factor: 25-30%
Industrial
Small-scale: 0-20 kW
Medium-scale: 20-100 kW
Large-scale: 100 kW and above
Demand factor: 70-80%
Load factor: 60-65%
 Types of loads
Agricultural
Demand factor: 90-100%
Diversity factor: 1-1.5
Load factor: 15-25%
Other loads
Street lights, bulk supplies, traction etc.
Commercial and agricultural loads are characterized
by seasonal variations.
Industrial loads are base loads and are little weather
dependent.
 Numerical
A power plant supplies the following loads with maximum
demand as below:
Type of load Max. demand (MW)
Industries 100
Domestic 15
Commercial 12
Agriculture 20

The maximum demand on the power station is 110 MW. The

total units generated in the year is 350 GWh.
Calculate:
Yearly load factor
Diversity factor
 Electrical load growth
Reasons for the growth of peak demand and
energy usage within an electric utility system:
New customer additions
Load will increase if more customers are
buying the utility's product.
New construction and a net population in-
migration to the area will add new
customers and increase peak load.
New uses of electricity
Existing customers may add new appliances
(replacing gas heaters with electric) or
replace existing equipment with improved
devices that require more power.
With every customer buying more electricity,
the peak load and annual energy sales will
 Planning and electrical load
growth
Load growth caused by new customers who are locating
in previously vacant areas.
Such growth leads to new construction and hence draws
the planner's attention.
Changes in usage among existing customers
Increase in per capita consumption is spread widely over
areas with existing facilities already in place, and the
growth rate is slow.
Difficult type of growth to accommodate, because the
planner has facilities in place that must be rearranged,
reinforced, and upgraded. This presents a very difficult
planning problem.
 Factors affecting load
forecasting
Time factors such as:
Hours of the day (day/night)
Day of the week (week day/weekend)
Time of the year (season)
Weather conditions (temperature and humidity)
Class of customers (residential, commercial, industrial,
agricultural, public, etc.)
Special events (TV programmes, public holidays, etc.)
Population
Economic indicators (per capita income, Gross National
Product (GNP), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), etc.)
Trends in using new technologies
Electricity price
 Forecasting methodology
Forecasting: systematic procedure for
quantitatively defining future loads.
Classification depending on the time period:
Short term
Medium
Long term
Forecast will imply an medium range forecast
Planning for the addition of new
generation, transmission and distribution
facilities must begin 4-10 years in advance
of the actual in-service date.

PSPR Lecture-2 (Sullivan)

 Forecasting techniques
Three broad categories based on:
Extrapolation
Time series method
Use historical data as the basis of estimating
future outcomes.

Correlation
Econometric forecasting method
identify the underlying factors that might
influence the variable that is being forecast.

Combination of both
 Extrapolation
Based on curve fitting to previous data available.
With the trend curve obtained from curve fitted load can
be forecasted at any future point.
Simple method and reliable in some cases.
Deterministic extrapolation:
Errors in data available and errors in curve fitting are not
accounted.
Probabilistic extrapolation
Accuracy of the forecast available is tested using statistical
measures such as mean and variance.
 Extrapolation
Standard analytical functions used in trend curve fitting
are:
Straight line: y a bx

Parabola: y a bx cx2

s curve: y a bx cx2 dx3

Exponential: y e a bx

Gompertz: y ln-1(a bex)

Best trend curve is obtained using least square estimation technique.

Best estimate may be obtained using equation of the best trend curve.
 Energy forecasting
To arrive at a total energy forecast, the forecasts for
residential, commercial and industrial customers are
forecasted separately and then combined.
RESIDENTIAL SALE COMMERCIAL SALE INDUSTRIAL SALE
FORECAST: FORECAST FORECAST
Population method Commercial Industrial sales are
Residential energy establishments are very closely tied to
requirements are depend service oriented.
Growth patterns are the overall economy.
on:
Residential customers related closely to Economy is
Population per growth patterns in unpredictable over
customer residential sales. selected periods
Per capita energy Method1:
Method 1:Multiply
consumption Extrapolate
To forecast these historical forecasted production
factors: commercial sales levels by forecasted
Simple curve fitting which is frequently energy consumption
Regression analysis available. per unit of production.
Multiplying the three Method 2: Method 2:Multiply
Extrapolate the ratio forecasted number of
factors gives the
of commercial to
forecast of residential residential sales into industrial workers by
sales. forecasted energy
the future.
consumption per
 Impact of weather in load
forecasting
Weather causes variations in domestic load, public
lighting, commercial loads etc.
Main weather variables that affect the power
consumption are:
Temperature
Cloud cover
Visibility
precipitation
First two factors affect the heating/cooling loads
Others affect lighting loads
 Impact of weather in load
forecasting
Average temperature is the most significant weather
dependent factor that influences load variations.
Temperature and load are not linearly related.
Non-linearity is further complicated by the influence
of
Humidity
Extended periods of extreme heat or cold spells
In load forecast models proper temperature ranges
and representative average temperatures which
cover all regions of the area served by the electric
utility should be selected.
 Peak load forecasting
Extrapolate historical demand data
Weather conditions can be included
Basic approach for weekly peak demand forecast is:
1.Determine seasonal weather load model.
2.Separate historical weather-sensitive and non-weather
sensitive components of weekly peak demand using
weather load model.
3.Forecast mean and variance of non-weather-sensitive
component of demand.
4.Extrapolate weather load model and forecast mean and
variance of weather sensitive component.
5.Determine mean, variance and density function of total
weekly forecast.
6.Calculate density function of monthly/annual forecast.
 Peak load forecasting
Assume that the seasonal variations of the peak demand are
primarily due to weather.
Otherwise, before step-3 can be undertaken, any additional
seasonal variation remaining after weather-sensitive variations
must be removed
To use the proposed forecasting method, a data base of at
least 12 years is recommended.
To develop weather load models daily peaks and coincident
weather variable values are needed.
 Separating weather-sensitive
and non-weather sensitive
components
From the weather load model
Weather-sensitive (WS) component of weekly peak load demand
data is calculated from the weekly peak coincident dry-bulb
temperatures.
Non-weather-sensitive (NWS) component of peak demand is
obtained by subtracting the first component from historical data.
NWS component is used in step-3, of basic approach for weekly
peak demand forecast , to forecast the mean and variance of the
NWS component of future weekly peak demands.
 References
Electric Power System Planning: Issues, Algorithms and
Solutions, Hossein Seifi and Mohammad Sadegh
Sepasian, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2011.
Electrical Power Systems Planning, A.S. Pabla,
Macmillan India Ltd., 1988.
Power System Planning, R.L. Sullivan, McGraw-Hill
International
Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, H. Lee
Willis, Marcel Dekker Inc.