The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at

www.emeraldinsight.com/0265-671X.htm

Analyzing and
Analyzing and forecasting the forecasting
reliability for repairable systems reliability
using the time series
317
decomposition method
Received September 2009
Yi-Hui Liang Revised August 2010
Department of Information Management, I-Shou University, Accepted October 2010
Kaohsiung Country, Taiwan

Abstract
Purpose The purpose of this study is to propose the time series decomposition approach to analyze
and predict the failure data of the repairable systems.
Design/methodology/approach This study employs NHPP to model the failure data. Initially,
Nelsons graph method is employed to estimate the mean number of repairs and the MCRF value for
the repairable system. Second, the time series decomposition approach is employed to predict the mean
number of repairs and MCRF values.
Findings The proposed method can analyze and predict the reliability for repairable systems. It
can analyze the combined effect of trend-cycle components and the seasonal component of the failure
data.
Research limitations/implications This study only adopts simulated data to verify the
proposed method. Future research may use other real products failure data to verify the proposed
method. The proposed method is superior to ARIMA and neural network model prediction techniques
in the reliability of repairable systems.
Practical implications Results in this study can provide a valuable reference for engineers when
constructing quality feedback systems for assessing current quality conditions, providing logistical
support, correcting product design, facilitating optimal component-replacement and maintenance
strategies, and ensuring that products meet quality requirements.
Originality/value The time series decomposition approach was used to model and analyze
software aging and software failure in 2007. However, the time series decomposition approach was
rarely used for modeling and analyzing the failure data for repairable systems. This study proposes
the time series decomposition approach to analyze and predict the failure data of the repairable
systems and the proposed method is better than the ARIMA model and neural networks in predictive
accuracy.
Keywords Time series analysis, Reliability management, Forecasting
Paper type Research paper

Introduction
Reliability prediction is increasing important for companies. The reliability prediction
model for failure data of a repairable system can be constructed in two ways. The first International Journal of Quality &
way is to select an appropriate probability function as the reliability growth model in Reliability Management
Vol. 28 No. 3, 2011
advance, then use this model to predict future system reliability. However, a pp. 317-327
predetermined probability function may fit the failure data well, but the prediction q Emerald Group Publishing Limited
0265-671X
result may not be good in practice. Also, it is often difficult for a reliability engineer to DOI 10.1108/02656711111109919
IJQRM select an appropriate probability function from many existing mathematics probability
28,3 functions (Liang and Afzel, 2006; Liang, 2008; Tong and Liang, 2005).
The second approach to constructing a reliability prediction model involves time
series analysis. Ascher and Feingold (1984) suggested that powerful time series
analysis techniques are available for repairable systems. Time series analysis
techniques have limited applicability to system reliability. However, it is still
318 worthwhile to consider the usefulness of these techniques (Ascher and Feingold, 1984).
Time series methods aim to recognize recurring patterns and nonlinear relationships
(Azoff, 1994). Examples of traditional time series methods are the exponential
smoothing method, the moving average (MA) method, the autoregressive
integrated-moving average (ARIMA) model, the seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models
and the time series decomposition method. Box and Jenkins (1976) developed ARIMA
and SARIMA models to analyze time series data. The ARIMA and SARIMA models
have been shown to be effective in time series prediction. The advantage of the
SARIMA model over the ARIMA model is that the SARIMA model can deal with data
involving trends and seasonality. A time series, exhibiting significant seasonality,
should be analyzed, by the SARIMA model, rather than the ARIMA model. The
exponential smoothing and MA methods, as well as the ARIMA and SARIMA models,
were used to predict repairable system reliability (Healy, 1997; Liang and Tong, 2001;
Singh et al., 1994; Singpurwala, 1978).
The neural network model is also employed to forecast reliability because it can
analyze and predict time series data. Numerous studies of reliability prediction have
utilized neural networks for repairable systems (Ho et al., 2002; Liang, 2008; Tong and
Liang, 2005; Xu et al., 2003).
Additionally, the time series decomposition approach is extensively adopted for
prediction, but rarely used for reliability engineering. Jiang and Xu (2007) used the time
series decomposition method to model and analyze software aging and software
failure. Liang (2009) first tried to use the time series decomposition approach to
forecast the reliability of repairable systems. However, Liang (2009) did not explain
explicitly and discuss sufficiently the proposed method. Liang (2009) also did not
compare other reliability prediction methods such as the ARIMA model and neural
networks.
The numerous factors influencing the reliability of repairable systems include
machinery, operating condition, maintenance conditions and intra-structural facilities
(Ebling, 1997; Rajpal et al., 2006). These factors, which are interactive, affect the
reliability of repairable systems (Chen, 2007; Rajpal et al., 2006). By adopting the time
series decomposition method to decompose the reliability of repairable systems into
numerous components (Delurgio, 1999), engineers and managers can evaluate these
components and eventually make an accurate method for predicting the reliability of
repairable systems.
Therefore, this study develops a novel method of effectively predicting the
reliability of repairable systems by using the time series decomposition approach.
Results in this study can provide a valuable reference for engineers when constructing
quality feedback systems for assessing current quality conditions, providing logistical
support, correcting product design, facilitating optimal component-replacement and
maintenance strategies, and ensuring that products meet quality requirements.
Literature overview Analyzing and
Non-homogeneous Poisson process and graph method
Non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is the most widespread for modeling the
forecasting
number of repairs now. The advantage of using the NHPP model is that the reliability
time-between-repairs does not need to be independently and identically distributed.
Consequently, NHPP may more closely approach the real world situation in many cases.
Nelsons (1988) graph method can be utilized to analyze the failure data of a repairable 319
system. This method is based on the mean cumulative repair function (MCRF), which is
a function of time t. The value of MCRF at time t is the mean of the cumulative repairs at
time t. A derivative of MCRF is assumed to exist and is defined as the instantaneous
repair rate function (IRRF) (Nelson, 1988). The graph method can be employed to
estimate the mean number of repairs and MCRF values for repairable systems.

Reliability prediction
As previously, two methods exist for predicting the reliability of repairable products.
The first method involves selecting an appropriate probability model to construct the
reliability growth model, then using this model to predict the repairable systems
reliability (Ascher and Feingold, 1984; MIL-HDBK-189, 1981). For example, Weibull
process (Weibull Poisson process; power law non-homogeneous Poisson process;
power law process) assumes that the failures for each system are according to a NHPP
with intensity function mt lbt b21 t . 0, the intensity mt is the same
mathematical form as failure rate for Weibull distribution (Crow, 1991).
Another method involves utilizing time series analysis approaches to construct an
equation representing reliability versus time, then to predict future reliability.
Conventional time series methods include the exponential smoothing method, the
moving average (MA) method, ARIMA and SARIMA models (Box and Jenkins, 1976)
and time series decomposition.
ARIMA is an acronym for autoregressive-integrated
moving-average.
 The order of
an ARIMA model is represented by ARIMA p; d; q . p is the order of the
autoregressive part. d is the order of differencing. q is the order of moving-average
process.
The data required to employ the ARIMA model is the number of failures in the
succeeding equally spaced intervals.

A time series f Z t jt 1; 2; :::; k g generated by a ARIMA p; d; q process with mean
m of the Box-Jenkins model (Box and Jenkins, 1976) can be expressed as follows:


w B1 2 Bd Z t 2 m u Bat 1
where Z t denotes the observed value at time t; B represents the backward shift
operator:
w B 1 2 w 1 B 2 w 2 B 2 2 2 w p B p ; 2

u B 1 2 u 1 B 2 u 2 B 2 2 2 u q B q : 3
IJQRM For a time series, which exhibits seasonality, Box-Jenkins model must be supplemented
28,3 with seasonal parameters and is termed the SARIMA model.
Numerous reliability prediction studies have adopted time series analysis. For
instance, Healy (1997) constructed a reliability prediction model using the exponential
smoothing method. Comparing the predictive power of exponential smoothing method
with that of Duanes reliability growth model (Ascher and Feingold, 1984), Healy (1997)
320 suggested that if the failure rate is not constant, then the reliability prediction model
constructed by exponential smoothing is superior to Duanes reliability growth model.
Wang and Hemminger (2007) developed a MA NHPP reliability growth model, which
contains the advantages of time domain and structure based approaches to account for
software with repair and predict software reliability. Singpurwala (1978) first
employed the ARIMA model to analyze failure data of repairable systems.
Furthermore, Singh et al. (1994) developed the failure prediction model for
series-parallel complex systems using the ARIMA model. Singh proposed that the
predictive power of the ARIMA model to be superior to that of other traditional
reliability prediction models. Furthermore, Liang and Tong (2001) applied the
SARIMA model to analyze and forecast the reliability of repairable systems.
Neural networks can also be employed for time series prediction. Unlike traditional
time series methods, the neural network model is a data-driven and non-parametric
weak model (Chen, 2007). Compared with the ARIMA model, neural network model
analysis is more suitable for long term than short-term time series forecasting (Maier
and Dandy, 1996; Tang et al., 1991). Recently, numerous studies have used the neural
network approach for reliability modelling, analysis and prediction with regard to
repairable systems. For example, Xu et al. (2003) utilized feedforward multilayer
perceptron neural networks and radial basis function neural networks for forecasting
engine systems reliability. Xu et al. (2003) proposed that in the case of neural networks,
compared with ARIMA model, no priori specification of failure distribution requires
assumption and testing. Ho et al. (2002) compared neural networks in terms of their
performance in predicting repairable system reliability using the ARIMA model. Ho
et al. (2002) proposed that feedforward multilayer perceptron neural networks and
recurrent neural networks outperform the ARIMA model in prediction accuracy. Tong
and Liang (2005) combined neural networks and the SARIMA model to forecast
reliability for repairable systems. Liang (2008) suggested employing evolutionary
neural networks for forecasting the field failure data of repairable systems.
The time series decomposition approach is widely used for prediction, with the
exception of reliability prediction of repairable systems.
Like the SARIMA model, time series decomposition approach also can deal with
data on trends and seasonality. In classical time series decomposition approach, a time
series is described as follows using a multifactor model (Delurgio, 1999):


Y t f t; c; s; e 4

where Y t is the actual value of time series at time t. f is mathematical function. t is

trend influences. c is cyclical influences. s is seasonal influences. e is error.
There are two types of decomposition models, an additive and a multiplicative:
(1) Additive: Y t c s e
(2) Multiplicative: Y t * c * s * e
The multiplicative decomposition approach is used most frequently. Analyzing and
The time series decomposition approach is easily understood and utilized. forecasting
Compared with other traditional time series methods, the advantage of time series
decomposition approach covers the concept of seasonality. This concept is very reliability
important because numerous time series show seasonality. The significant seasonality
of time series makes it difficult to measure the treads and cyclical movements. So,
measurement of the seasonal variation is an essential part in understanding a time 321
series (Delurgio, 1999).

Research method
This study employs NHPP to model the failure data. Initially, Nelsons graph method
(Nelson, 1988) is employed to estimate the mean number of repairs and the MCRF value
for the repairable system. Second, employ time series decomposition approach to
predict the mean number of repairs and MCRF values. Every step of the proposed
model is detailed in the following.

Estimating the mean number of repairs and MCRF values

The graph method is employed to estimate the mean number of repairs and MCRF.
The process of calculating the graph method is summarized in the following six steps:
(1) List each operating time t i in column 1.
(2) List E t i , the number of items in the field at operating time t i , in column 2.
P
(3) Calculate Eti , the cumulative number of items in the field at each operating
time ti , in column 3.
(4) List the number of repair data r i at time ti in column 4.
(5) Divide column 4 by column 3 to obtain the mean number of repairs and list the
mean number of repairs in column 5.
(6) Accumulate values in column 5 to estimate the MCRF at time ti .

Using time series decomposition to analyze and predict the failure data
A highly developed time series decomposition approaches is the Census Method ?X-11
(US Bureau of the Census, 1967). The predecessor of this approach, was built by the US
Bureau of Economical Research, during the 1920s, for time series forecasting (Delurgio,
1999). The Census Method IIX-11 method (US Bureau of the Census, 1967) belongs to
the multiplicative decomposition model. The Census Method IIX-11 method (US
Bureau of the Census, 1967) represents a computerized version of the classical time
series decomposition method. The basic model breaks up a time series into long-term
trend, long-term cyclical movements, seasonal movement, and irregular fluctuations
(SAS Institute, 1993). Early researcher found it very difficult to uniquely decompose
the trend and cyclical components, and thus the two were combined. The seasonal
component is the intra year variation that is repeated regularly. Finally, the irregular
component is the residual variation (SAS Institute, 1993).
This proposed method decomposes a failure data time series into three components:

Y TC * S * I 5
IJQRM where TC denotes the combined effect of trend and cycle components from the failure
28,3 data. Furthermore, S represents the effect of seasonal component of the failure data.
Finally, I represents the residual variation of the failure data. The forecasting model
employs trend-cyclical and seasonal factors, which can provide a foundation for
forecasting:

322 Y^ t TC t*S t 6

where Y^ t is the forecast value.

The components are estimated using the following steps:
(1) Estimate the TC component through a centered moving average of Y.
(2) Estimate SI as the percentage of Y/TC.
(3) Adjust SI for extreme points.
(4) Estimate S by averaging SI.
(5) Estimate TCI using the percentage of Y/S.
(6) Estimate I using the percentage of TCI to TC.

The six steps are repeated for refinement within four phases (Delurgio, 1999):
.
Phase 1: Adjust the time series data for trading days in a month or quarter. Time
series data are made according to a time series so that the number of days is
compatible with equivalent periods from year to year.
. Phase 2: Antecedent estimates of the seasonal indexes are made. The antecedent
estimates are later used to compute a trend-cycle component. Next, the outlier
adjustment trend-cycle component is used to estimate improved seasonal
indexes in the next phase.
.
Phase 3: The antecedent seasonal indexes are refined. Following the seasonal
indexes improvement, the trend-cycle and irregular components are further
refined. These exports are used in reporting and forecasting.
.
Phase 4: Take summary statistics generated as diagnostic instruments. After
judgement, confirm the fitness of the adjustments and final indexes.

The time series decomposition model obtained can be utilized to predict the mean
number of repairs.

Validation of experimental results

Liang (2009) first adopts the time series decomposition method to predict the reliability
for a repairable system using Wangs (1991) failure data. Wangs (1991) study, samples
36 months real failure data from an electronic system designed and manufactured by
suppliers of the Chrysler Corporation. However, Wangs failure data are a specific data
and it is the failure data with seasonality. Liang (2009) also did not compare other
reliability prediction methods such as the ARIMA model and neural networks.
To further confirm the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method, this
study assume the following Weibull process and the failure rate (the mean repairs) for
repairable systems mt lbt b21 , l 200 and b 0:5. The failure data for
repairable systems are simulated using statistical software from t 200 to 2,200. The Analyzing and
simulation begins from the 1 January 1988. Figure 1 shows the data. forecasting
The time series decomposition method is used to construct a prediction model based
on 201 failure data. Figure 2 shows the plot of simulated failure data and the predicted
reliability
failure data by the time series decomposition method. Figure 3 reveals the plot of the
seasonal factor (S) of the mean number of repairs. Figures 4 and 5 separately reveals
the plot of the trend cycle (TC) and the irregular factor (I) of the mean number of 323
repairs.
Finally, compares the prediction results obtained from the time series
decomposition approach with the prediction results obtained by ARIMA model and
neural networks, using the simulated failure data.
During analytical process, notably, the simulated failure data shows no strong
seasonality, the ARIMA model is employed for predicting
the failure  data, not the
SARIMA model. According to the analytic steps, the ARIMA 0; 1; 2 model is selected
as the most suitable ARIMA model.

Figure 1.
Simulated data

Figure 2.
Plot of simulated failure
data and the predicted
failure data by the time
series decomposition
method
IJQRM
28,3

324

Figure 3.
Plot of the seasonal factor
of the failure data

Figure 4.
Plot of the trend cycle
factor of the failure data

Figure 5.
Plot of the irregular factor
series of the failure data
The input data are the previous failure data. The neural network model is employed to Analyzing and
analyze and predict the simulated failure data-based the neural network analytic steps. forecasting
The number of hidden layer is 1, the number of hidden neurons is 4 and the transfer
function sets sigmoid on the neural network model. The RMS of training data are reliability
0.111595. The correlation of training data are 0.576378.
The prediction results obtained from the ARIMA model and neural networks
exhibits Figure 6. Table I summarizes the prediction results. From MAE and RMSE, 325
the proposed method outperforms ARIMA model and neural networks in predictive
accuracy. After the Wilcoxon signed-rank test in Table II, at a significance level of 5
per cent, the time series decomposition approach is significantly different with the
ARIMA model and neural networks in predictive power.

Conclusion
The proposed method developed herein makes the following contributions to predict
the reliability of a repairable system:

Figure 6.
The predicted failure data
by time series
decomposition approach
and ARIMA model

Table I.
Comparison of prediction
The proposed method ARIMA model Neural networks error predicted by the
proposed method and
MAE 0.276279 0.790875 0.944136 ARIMA model and neural
RMSE 0.363612 0.974258 1.187342 networks

The proposed method vs ARIMA Model The proposed method vs neural networks Table II.
Wilcoxon signed-rank
Z-value 210.2 2 10.595 test
IJQRM .
The proposed method can analyze and predict the reliability for repairable
28,3 systems. It can analyze the combined effect of trend-cycle components and the
seasonal component of the failure data.
.
In the simulation study, the proposed method is better than the ARIMA model
and neural networks in predictive accuracy for forecasting repairable system
reliability.
326 .
Based on the analytical results achieved by the proposed method, engineers or
management authorities can perform follow-up actions to improve the provision
of logistical support, implement correct product design and ensure that products
meet quality requirements.

References
Ascher, H. and Feingold, H. (1984), Repairable System Reliability, Marcel Dekker, New York, NY.
Azoff, E.M. (1994), Neural Network Time Series Prediction of Financial Markets, Wiley,
New York, NY.
Box, G.E.P. and Jenkins, G.M. (1976), Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control, Holden-Day,
San Francisco, CA.
Chen, K.Y. (2007), Forecasting systems reliability based on support vector regression with
genetic algorithms, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 92, pp. 423-32.
Crow, L.H. (1991), Evaluating the reliability of repairable systems, Proceedings of the 1991
Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, pp. 275-9.
Delurgio, S.A. (1999), Forecasting Principles and Applications, Irwin/McGraw-Hill, New York,
NY.
Ebling, C.E. (1997), An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, Tata
McGraw-Hill, New Delhi.
Healy, J. (1997), A simple procedure for reliability of repairable systems, Proceedings of the
1997 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, pp. 171-5.
Ho, S.L., Xie, M. and Goh, T.N. (2002), A comparative study of neural network and Box-Jenkins
ARIMA modelling in time series prediction, Computer & Industrial Engineering, Vol. 42,
pp. 371-5.
Jiang, L. and Xu, G. (2007), Modelling and analysis of software aging and software failure,
Journal of System and Software, Vol. 80, pp. 590-5.
Liang, T. and Afzel, N. (2006), Reply to Comment on Evolutionary neural network modeling
for software cumulative failure time prediction, by Liang Tian and Afzel Noore, by Bev
Littlewood, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 91, pp. 487-91.
Liang, Y.H. (2008), Combining neural networks and genetic algorithms for predicting the
reliability of repairable systems, International Journal of Quality & Reliability
Management, Vol. 25 No. 2, pp. 201-10.
Liang, Y.H. (2009), Development of a new reliability prediction model for predicting the
reliability of repairable products, International Journal of Product Development, Vol. 7
Nos 3/4, pp. 218-30.
Liang, Y.H. and Tong, L.I. (2001), Analyzing and forecasting the field failure data for repairable
systems, Journal of Quality, Vol. 8 No. 2, pp. 75-96.
Maier, H.R. and Dandy, G.C. (1996), Neural network models for forecasting univariate time
series, Neural Networks World, Vol. 6 No. 5, pp. 747-72.
MIL-HDBK-189 (1981), Reliability Growth Management, Department of Defense, Washington, Analyzing and
DC.
Nelson, W. (1988), Graphical analysis of system repair data, Journal of Quality Technology,
forecasting
Vol. 20 No. 1, pp. 24-35. reliability
Rajpal, P.S., Shishodia, K.S. and Sekhon, G.S. (2006), An artificial neural network for modelling
reliability, availability and maintainability of a repairable system, Reliability Engineering
& System Safety, Vol. 91, pp. 809-19. 327
SAS Institute (1993), SAS/ETS Users Guide, Version 6, 2nd ed., SAS Institute, Cary, NC.
Singh, N., Chrys, D.A. and Fishwick, P.A. (1994), Forecasting time-dependent failure rates of
systems operating in series and/or in parallel, Microelectronic Reliability, Vol. 34 No. 3,
pp. 391-400.
Singpurwala, N.D. (1978), Estimating reliability growth using Time Series Analysis, Nev. Res.
Logistics Quarterly, Vol. 25, pp. 1-14.
Tang, Z., Chrys, D.A. and Fishwick, P.A. (1991), Time series forecasting using neural networks
vs Box-Jenkins methodology, Simulation, Vol. 57 No. 5, pp. 303-31.
Tong, L.I. and Liang, Y.H. (2005), Forecasting field failure data for repairable systems using
Neural Networks and SARIMA model, International Journal of Quality and Reliability
Management, Vol. 22 No. 4, pp. 410-20.
US Bureau of the Census (1967), The X-11 variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment
Program, Technical paper no. 15, US Government Printing Office, Washington DC.
Wang, C.J. (1991), Graphical analysis of ill-collected interval data for a repairable system in
vehicles, Proceedings of the 1991 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,
pp. 93-7.
Wang, W.L. and Hemminger, T.L. (2007), A moving average non-homogeneous Poisson process
reliability growth model to account for software with repair and system structures, IEEE
Transactions on Reliability, Vol. 56 No. 3, pp. 411-21.
Xu, K., Xie, M., Tang, L.C. and Ho, S.L. (2003), Application of neural networks in forecasting
engine systems reliability, Applied Soft Computing, Vol. 2 No. 4, pp. 255-68.

About the author

Yi-Hui Liang is an Associate Professor in the Department of Information Management at I-Shou
University in Taiwan. He received his PhD degree in Industrial Engineering and Management
from National Chiao Tung University in Taiwan. His research interests center on Data Mining,
Artificial Intelligence, Production and Operation Management, Supply Chain Management,
E-Commerce, Tourism Management. He can be contacted at: german@isu.edu.tw

To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail: reprints@emeraldinsight.com

Or visit our web site for further details: www.emeraldinsight.com/reprints
This article has been cited by:

1. Wen Xi Lu, Ying Zhao, Hai Bo Chu, Lei Lei Yang. 2013. The analysis of groundwater levels influenced
by dual factors in western Jilin Province by using time series analysis method. Applied Water Science .
[CrossRef]