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Summary and
Production forecasting and prediction of original fluids in place 4 A
qsc lgw cgw ln
are important gas-well-performance evaluations which are rou- 1 ec CA rw2
tinely conducted using rate/time decline-curve analysis. Cur- Y : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3d
qgi 4pkhqi qwf
rently, rate/time decline-curve analysis of natural-gas reservoirs
relies heavily on the use of empirical curve fitting of boundary- We arrived to these analytical gas-well boundary dominated
dominated rate/time production data using type curves or the Arps flow (BDF) decline models by demonstrating the validity of the
hyperbolic decline model. In this study, we show that original- following gas/liquid analytical transformation for wells in decline
fluids-in-place prediction and gas-well-performance evaluations (Ye and Ayala 2012):
can be conducted simply by straightline analysis of boundary-
dominated data in flow-rate vs. cumulative-production plots. We qgas liq
Dd tDAd k qDd btDAd : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
first analytically demonstrate that the hyperbolic decline exponent
describing the depletion of single-phase volumetric gas reservoirs In this transformation, qgas
Dd is the associated analytical predic-
is not subject to empirical determination from rate/time data. tion for gas-flow-rate response and qliq
Dd is the liquid-decline-rate
Decline behaviour of gas wells producing at less than full poten- response on the basis of the solution of the liquid diffusivity equa-
tial is also shown to exhibit a hybrid decline character: hyperbolic tion. We showed that liquid analytical solutions can be used to
during early boundary-dominated flow and exponential at later predict gas analytical responses by rescaling the solutions using
times. In both cases, explicit calculations of hyperbolic decline the dimensionless parameters k and b. k represents the dimension-
coefficients are possible, thus enabling the explicit calculation of less parameter that tracks the space-averaged effect of depletion
gas reserves using flow-rate vs. cumulative-production straight- on fluid properties affecting the value of hydraulic diffusivity
line plots. Numerical and field case studies are presented to dem- (g k=/lg cg ), which controls the systems ability to propagate
onstrate the applicability and generality of the proposed reserves-
pressure changes through its spatial domain. Mathematically, this
determination methodology.
dimensionless parameter tracks the space-averaged evolution of
the fluid viscosity-compressibility product by a time-dependent
Introduction version of Carters k (Carter 1985):
Recently, we demonstrated using analytical arguments and corro- lgi cgi
borated by numerical reservoir simulation and field-data analysis kt ; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
l g c g t
that the long-time, boundary-dominated approximation for the
decline-rate behaviour of gas reservoirs of arbitrary shape produc- while the time-averaged evolution of kt is quantified using the
ing at constant bottomhole pressure is given by the expression standard averaging definition,
(Ye and Ayala 2012; Ayala and Ye 2013)
t
qgsc kqgi expbDei t; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1
bt ktdt: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
t
0
which in terms of decline dimensionless variables also can be
written as Our methodology further establishes a direct link between k
calculations and cumulative production (Gp), as shown in (Ye and
qDd kexpbtDAd ; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Ayala 2012; Ayala and Ye 2013),
where B
lgi cgi q Gp t B
kt 1 ; . . . . . . . . . . . 7
tDAd X t; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3a lgcg qi OGIP
0.1 r=0.5
bolic decline assumption to gas wells emerges from this analysis,
while removing the empiricism that dominates the calculation of
r=0.7 hyperbolic decline exponents (b) for gas wells in BDF.
r=0.9
r=1
Analysis of Decline Behaviour of
Gas Wells in BDF
0.01 As discussed previously, gas production from wells in BDF pro-
1E4 1E3 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 ducing under a constant bottomhole pressure can be rigorously
tDAd modelled by Eq. 2, reproduced as
Fig. 1Dimensionless decline rate (DD) for a gas reservoir qDd kexpbtDAd : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
(B 50.85) producing under less-than-wide-open BDF decline.
Dimensionless cumulative gas production is readily obtained
by integrating this equation to yield
Classical Arps decline equations include the exponential
tDAd
model for undersaturated, volumetric oil reservoirs (Arps 1945):
GPDd qDd dtDAd 1 expbtDAd : . . . . . . . . . . 15
qsc qi expDei t; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 0
Fetkovich provided physical justification to the empirical obser- Ibrahim and Wattenbarger (2005) also proposed a concept similar
vations of Arps (Fetkovich 1980). Fetkovichs seminal work con- to rp expressed in terms of pseudopressure instead of density and
cluded that hyperbolic decline exponents (b) are subject to demonstrated that its value has an impact on the prediction ability
empirical determination through their dependence on n-exponents of analytical linear solutions. They focused on the study of tran-
of the gas backpressure equation for wells producing at full poten- sient linear flow performance while this work discusses BDF anal-
tial. Since then, modern decline-curve analysis has evolved to ysis. The basic premise of this work is based on the finding that
account for the effects of prevailing bottomhole-pressure ( pwf) Eq. 14 unequivocally predicts when classical hyperbolic behav-
specifications and the changing gas viscosity and compressibility iour can be expected for gas wells in decline, while predicting the
with time. Reviews of these traditional and modern decline-curve- subsequent hyperbolic coefficient simultaneously and explicitly
analysis methods have been presented by Mattar and Anderson for such cases. This is demonstrated on the basis of Eqs. 14
(2003) and Ahmed and McKinney (2005). Carter (1985), for exam- through 18, from where the dimensionless decline rate (DD) for
ple, developed a set of type curves that used a time-independent ver- any gas well in BDF decline can be derived to be
sion of the k parameter presented in Eq. 5 for the analysis of
1 dqDd k
boundary-dominated data. Blasingame and Lee (1988) and Palacio DD 1 Bk 1 rq B p : . . . . 20
and Blasingame (1993) were the first to convert gas-well-produc- qDd dtDAd B
k
tion data with variable bottomhole-pressure specifications into
equivalent constant-rate liquid data by introducing the concept of Note that D X DD Dei DD , according to Eqs. 3a, 3b, and
material-balance pseudotime or superposition time into the analy- 13. It follows that the b-exponent for gas wells in BDF decline
sis. Mattar and Anderson (2003, 2005) introduced the flowing or can be derived from direct differentiation of Eq. 20 to obtain
dynamic material-balance technique on the basis of the concepts of !
normalized rate and a cumulative production function calculated in 1 rq
1B2 p
terms of material-balance (superposition) pseudotime which gener- d1=D d1=DD 1 rq B k
ates a straightline plot that extrapolates to OGIP. Another popular b B !2 :
dt dtDAd 1 rq
analysis method involves plotting the normalized rate using pseudo- 1B p
pressure against superposition time and obtaining OGIP predictions 1 rq B k
from the slope of the resulting straightline plot (Blasingame and
Lee 1988; Ibrahim et al. 2003). 21
0.4
r=0.5
0.3
r=0.7
0.3 r=0.3
bi
b
0.2
0.2 r=0.9
r=0.1
0.1
0.1
r=0.01
0.0 0.0
1E4 1E3 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
tDAd r
Fig. 2Transient hyperbolic exponent (b) for a gas reservoir Fig. 3Early BDF hyperbolic exponent (bi) for a gas well
(B 50.85) producing under less-than-wide-open BDF decline. (B 50.85) as a function of the prescribed constant-bottomhole
specification.
Eqs. 20 and 21 show that well-decline rates and b-values are this value remains the same throughout well productive life. For
sole functions of prevailing drawdown (rq ). They are also a func- all other cases of constant-pwf gas-well BDF production (rq < 1),
tion of the strength of the intrinsic viscosity-compressibility char- hyperbolic decline can be expected only during early BDF
acteristics of the fluid (B) and the evolution of the viscosity- (hyperbolic window). Such early BDF hyperbolic behaviour
compressibility values with time (k). Figs. 1 and 2 show the can be characterized by a b-value readily obtained by evaluating
behaviour of these two parameters: decline rate (DD) and decline Eq. 21 at initial conditions (t0, k1),
exponent (b), respectively, as a function of time for the case
B0.85 and the constant-bottomhole-pressure specifications of 1 B 2rq0
rq 0.01, 0.10, 0.30, 0.50, 0.70, and 0.90, including wide-open b bi B ; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
1 B rq0 2
decline rq 1. Fig. 1 suggests that decline rates do change in time
during early BDF and tend to reach a constant value (i.e., expo- where
nential decline) at late times. In other words, gas wells producing
at rq <1 exhibit a hybrid decline character: nonexponential BDF 1 qwf 1 rq
rq0 1 ; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
decline at earlier times and exponential decline at late times. The rq qi qwf rq
duration of the nonexponential decline behaviour and the onset of
exponential decline are clearly dependent on the value of rq : the Fig. 3 displays the behaviour of Eq. 24 as a function of the rq
lower the rq , the sooner the exponential decline starts. Note that specification. Because rq ! 1, b reaches its maximum possible
initial decline rates (Di) can be calculated by evaluating Eq. 20 at valuethe one prescribed by Eq. 23, which is exclusively dic-
t0 (k1) to obtain tated by the gas viscosity-compressibility parameter B. It is also
clear in Fig. 3 that a decreasing value of rq constrains b severely.
Di X 1 rq B Dei 1 rq B: . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Straightline Analysis of Flow Rate vs.
The early-time nonexponential character of the decline behav-
iour in Fig. 1 can be further characterized by investigating Fig. 2. Cumulative-Production-Data Technique
For rq 1 (wide-open decline, pwf 0), a constant b-decline expo- The preceding discussion demonstrated that gas wells in BDF
nent can be observed throughout the life of the well, which is con- decline experience at the least an early period of hyperbolic
sistent with what classical decline analysis characterizes as behaviour regardless of prevailing bottomhole-pressure specifica-
hyperbolic decline. It is significant to note that rq 1 is the only tion (hyperbolic window). In addition, within this window, result-
scenario that exhibits such hyperbolic decline throughout well ing hyperbolic decline exponents (b) are fully predictable through
productive life. However, it is also apparent that for all rq specifi- Eq. 24. As a result, the decline model in Eq. 1 and Arps classical
cations, the initial value of b is able to remain constant for at least hyperbolic model in Eq. 11 become interchangeable within the
a portion of the early BDF period. hyperbolic window of the well. In other words, when the con-
We refer to this period as the hyperbolic window of the gas straint b constant is embraced, Eq. 11 becomes a subset or spe-
well [i.e., the time period when gas-well-decline data can be con- cial case of Eq 1. Upon integration of Eq. 11, the well-known
sidered hyperbolic in the classical sense (i.e., constant b)]. As pro- cumulative production (Gp) vs. time expression for hyperbolic
duction dies off and tDAd > 0.1, the initial value of b transitions decline is obtained:
into exponential decline (b0). This shows that gas wells produc- ( )
ing at constant, less-than-wide-open-decline conditions (rq <1) qgi qgsc t 1b
Gp t 1 : . . . . . . . . . . . 26
actually exhibit a hybrid decline character: hyperbolic decline Di 1 b qgi
(constant b) at early times during BDF, but nonhyperbolic decline
at late times. It is also interesting to note that for wells in wide- Hyperbolic data that obey Eq. 11 must also conform to the
open decline (rq 1), Eq. 21 readily collapses to flow-rate vs. cumulative-production relationship described by Eq.
26, which can be rewritten in terms of the following straightline
B equation as
b : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
1B q1b
gsc t m Gp t iy ; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
In other words, the value of the hyperbolic exponents (b) of
any well produced at wide-open condition is defined uniquely by Di b 1
where m is the slope given by m and iy q1b
gi is the
the strength of the viscosity-compressibility dependency on den- qbgi
sity for the depletion process of interest (B). As shown in Fig. 2, y-axis intercept. Given that b-values can be calculated a priori
250
qi qwf
q1b qi 12:09 lbm=ft3 ; qwf 8:02 lbm=ft3 ; rq
gi qi
qwf
(MscfD)1b
100 b bi B 0:4493: 41
1 B rq0 2
50 OGIP*
(2) q1b
sc vs. Gp plotFig. 7 shows the flow-rate vs. cumula-
tive-production plot for the numerical data provided by Fraim and
0 Wattenbarger (1987). The presence of the hyperbolic decline win-
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 dow is clearly observed, early-time deviations for infinite-acting-
Gp (Bcf) flow data are also evident, and late BDF data deviations are now
more pronounced because rq 0:34 1. The end of the hyper-
1b
Fig. 7qgsc vs. cumulative-production analysis for Case Study 2. bolic window marks the point where the hyperbolic decline starts
Inputs
(MscfD)1b
50
1b
qgsc
Reservoir temperature ( F) 160
Initial pressure (psia) 4,175 20
Well sandface pressure (psia) 500 OGIP*
10
Outputs
0
Variables Values 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8
Gp (Bcf)
qi (lbm/ft3) 10.92
qwf (lbm/ft3) 1.29 1b
Fig. 8qgsc vs. cumulative-production analysis for Case Study 3.
rq 0.88
rq0 0.134
B (Fig. A-3, Appendix A) 0.89 OGIP grq OGIP
; . . . . . . 45
b bi (Eq. 21) 0.47 2:363626:37 Mscf 62:33 Bscf
iy (Mscf/D1b) (y-intercept in Fig. 8) 56.35
which is an estimation that closely agrees with the actual value
qgi (Mscf/D) 1,978.5 reported by the authors (61.51 Bscf). Future production from this
1/Di (days) (from slope in Fig. 8) 689 well should not be predicted from the classical hyperbolic model in
OGIP* (Bcf) (from x-intercept in Fig. 8) 2.56 Eq. 11, using the calculated b, qgi , and Di because it is clear in Fig. 7
g(rq) (Eq. 31) 1.075 that the onset of exponential decline is readily apparent in the data.
OGIP prediction (Bcf) (Eq. 30) 2.76
Case Study 3: West Virginia Gas Well A, Field Case
to transition into exponential decline. A clear straight line can be (Fetkovich et al. 1987; Fraim and Wattenbarger 1987). Gas
defined within the hyperbolic window, also shown in Fig. 7. Well A is a low-permeability, hydraulically fractured gas well pro-
(3) Obtain m, ix, iy, qgi , and Di the best straight-line-fitting ducing from the Onondaga chert formation in West Virginia. Its
analysis of the hyperbolic window data in Fig. 7 yields rate/time-production data were originally studied by Fetkovich
(Fetkovich et al. 1987) and later by Fraim and Wattenbarger (1987)
8
< m 9:2 106 Mscf b =D1b for reserves-quantification analysis. Table 3 provides the relevant
i q1b 1b
; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 reservoir and fluid properties and results obtained from the pro-
: y gi 242:6 Mscf=D
posed reserves analysis. Fig. 8 shows the clear linear relationship
ix OGIP 26:37 Bcf
that is obtained between flow rate and available cumulative-pro-
from where: duction data. On the basis of this linearity, a prediction of 2.76 Bscf
8 is obtained (Table 2), which is a result consistent with the 3.36
>
> Mscf Bscf originally predicted by Fetkovich et al. (1987), later revised to
< qgi 21; 434 3.035 Bscf by Fraim and Wattenbarger (1987), and the predictions
D : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
> 1 of 2.6281 Bscf of Blasingame and Lee (1988) and 2.737 Bcf of
>
: 677:43D
Di Ahmed and McKinney (2005) for the same data. Future production
can be predicted with the regressed values of qgi and Di, which is
(4) Calculate reserves (OGIP)Eqs. 30 and 31 provide the valid as long as the hyperbolic character is maintained:
means for the explicit calculation of reserves:
1; 979:5
qgsc 1 Mscf=D: . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46
rq0
grq 1 2:3636: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 0:47 0:47
1 rq B t1
689
20
three different bottomhole-pressure specifications (rq 0.98, 0.65,
1b
qgsc
OGIP*
and 0.31, approximately). Table 5 presents the reservoir and fluid
r = 0.31 r = 0.65 r = 0.98
10 properties used for the case study, which consider a common ini-
tial reservoir pressure of 5,000 psia and a gas in place of 6.0 Bcf
for all simulations. Reservoir simulations were conducted with a
commercial simulator (Computer Modelling Group 2012). Fig. 10
0 shows the resulting straightline analyses for all three numerical
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 scenarios. Note that early-time data (infinite-acting), as expected,
Gp (Bcf) does not follow the linear trend. However, the formation of a
hyperbolic window is evident in all cases. The onset of nonhyper-
1b
Fig. 10qgsc vs. cumulative-production analysis for Case bolic BDF behaviour at late times also becomes evident for all
Study 5. cases, rq < 1. Tables 6, 7, and 8 present the results of the
TABLE 7CASE STUDY 5, INTERMEDIATE pwf TABLE 8CASE STUDY 5, HIGH pwf SPECIFICATION
SPECIFICATION (SEE FIG. A-5b) (SEE FIG. A-5c)
1/gcg (psi/cp)
Canadian International Petroleum Conference, Calgary, Alberta, Can-
ada June 79.
Ilk, D., Rushing, J.A., and Blasingame, T.A. 2009. Decline Curve Analysis 2x105
for HP/HT Gas Wells: Theory and Applications. Presented at the SPE
wf
Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, New Orleans, 47 Octo-
ber. SPE-125031-MS. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/125031-MS. 1.5x105
Lee, A.L., Gonzalez, M.H., and Eakin, B.E. 1966. The Viscosity of Natu-
ral Gases. J Pet Technol 18 (8): 9971000. SPE-1340-PA. http://
dx.doi.org/10.2118/1340-PA.
Mattar, L. and Anderson, D. 2005. Dynamic Material Balance (Oil or Gas-
105
In-Place Without Shut-Ins). Presented at the Canadian International 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Petroleum Conference, Calgary, 79 June. CIPC 2005-113. http:// density (lbm/ft3)
dx.doi.org/10.2118/2005-113.
Mattar, L. and Anderson, D.M. 2003. A Systematic and Comprehensive Fig. A-2Viscosity-compressibility vs. density behaviour for
Methodology for Advanced Analysis of Production Data. Presented at Case Study 2.
the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Denver, 58
October. SPE-84472-MS. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/84472-MS.
Palacio, J.C. and Blasingame, T.A. 1993. Decline-Curve Analysis Using i
Type CurvesAnalysis of Gas Well Production Data. Oral presenta- 1/gcg = 27925*0.88
tion Presented at the Rocky Mountain Regional/Low Permeability
Reservoirs Symposium and Exhibition, Denver, 2628 April. http://
dx.doi.org/10.2118/25909-MS.
5
10
1/gcg (psi/cp)
Sutton, R.P. 1985. Compressibility Factors for High-Molecular-Weight
Reservoir Gases. Presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference
and Exhibition, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, 2226 September. SPE-
14265-MS. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/14265-MS. wf
Ye, P. and Ayala H, L.F. 2012. A density-diffusivity approach for the
unsteady state analysis of natural gas reservoirs. J. Nat. Gas Sci. Eng.
7: 2234. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2012.03.004.
4
Appendix A: The Viscosity-Compressibility vs. 10
1
Density Dependency
density () (lbm/ft3)
In our studies, we quantify the isothermal dependency of viscos-
ity-compressibility and density values through the definition of Fig. A-3Viscosity-compressibility vs. density behaviour for
the dimensionless parameter Case Study 3.
dlnlg cg
B : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1 pressure natural gases, B1 as predicted by the kinetic theory for
dlnq T nonattracting rigid spheres, thus generating a 45 line slope in
1
This intrinsic dependence can be shown to be a function of log-log vs. density plots at low pressures. For real natural
fluid specific gravity (composition), reservoir temperature, and lg cg
pressure level. It is straightforward to show that B0 for liquids gases, values of B can be lower than unity (B < 1) as pressure
1 increases away from ideal conditions and are higher than unity (B
which generate horizontal vs. density profiles. For ideal low-
lg cg
6 107
10
1/gcg = 24573*0.89 1/gcg = 14726*1.37
i i
106
1/gcg (psi/cp)
1/gcg (psi/cp)
5
10
wf
wf 105
10
4
104
1 10 1 10
density (lbm/ft3) density (lbm/ft3)
Fig. A-1Viscosity-compressibility vs. density behaviour for Fig. A-4Viscosity-compressibility vs. density behaviour for
Case Study 1. Case Study 4 (HP/HT).
105
1/gcg (psi/cp)
1/gcg (psi/cp)
wf
105
104 wf
104
0.1 1 10 5 10
3 3
density (lbm/ft ) density (lbm/ft )
(c)
4x105
3.5x105 1/gcg = 12445*1.32
i
3x105
2.5x105
1/gcg (psi/cp)
2x105 wf
1.5x105
105
7 8 9 10 11 12
density (lbm/ft3)
Fig. A-5(a) Viscosity-compressibility vs. density behaviour for Case Study 5 low pwf specification. (b) Viscosity-compressibility
vs. density behaviour for Case Study 5 intermediate pwf specification. (c) Viscosity-compressibility vs. density behaviour for Case
Study 5 high pwf specification.
> 1) at even higher pressures (Ye and Ayala 2012). For a given Peng Ye is a reservoir engineer with Hess Corporation in Kuala
depletion process, a representative average B-value can be Lumpur, specializing in rate transient analysis and production
1 analysis for unconventional reservoirs, and in multiphase trans-
derived by plotting the behaviour of the coefficient vs. den- port description in porous media using both analytical and nu-
l g cg merical approaches. He holds a BS degree in geology from
sity in a log-log format, with the average slope of such a plot rep- Peking University and MS and PhD degrees in energy and min-
resenting the B-value for the process and pressure interval under eral engineering from the Pennsylvania State University. Ye
study. A best-fit regression analysis of the equation can be reached at pengye@hess.com.