201 N Union Street, Suite 410

Alexandria, Virginia 22314

(703) 684-6688
(703) 836-8256 FAX
THE TARRANCE GROUP
dsackett@tarrance.com www.tarrance.com

MEMORANDUM

TO: MIKE KELLY FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE

NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE
FROM: DAVE SACKETT

RE: KEY FINDINGS FROM A SURVEY OF LIKELY GENERAL ELECTION VOTERS IN THE THIRD
CONGESSIONAL DISTRICT OF PENNSYLVANIA.

DATE: 22, 2010

JULY
_______________________________________________________________________
_

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present Mike Kelly for Congress Committee and the
National Republican Congressional Committee with the key findings from a survey of
voter attitudes among Republican primary voters in Pennsylvania CD-3. These key
findings are based on telephone interviews with N=305 “likely” voters throughout the
district. Responses to this survey were gathered July 20-21, 2010 and the confidence
interval associated with a sample of this type is + 5.8%.

KEY FINDINGS

 Republican nominee Mike Kelly holds a +11 point lead over Democrat incumbent
Kathy Dahlkemper on the trial ballot test for Congress. Forty-eight percent (48%) of
district voters indicate they would vote for Kelly, and only 37% indicate they would
vote for Kathy Dahlkemper.

 The political environment in the district is such that there are a significant portion of
the Democrat vote that are rejecting Dahlkemper. One in four registered Democrats
in the district, twenty-five percent (25%) indicate that they would vote for Republican
Mike Kelly.

 There is no gender gap in Kelly’s support and he is beating Dahlkemper among both
men and women voters across the district, and he also leads Dahlkemper among
voters of all ages.

-1-
 Kelly has a well established base of name ID and image ratings among voters in the
district, with a soft name awareness of sixty-seven percent (67%.) His name ID is
well established throughout the district, and is solid in all three of the different media
markets in the district.

-2-
 Dahlkemper, on the other hand suffers from terrible image and incumbency ratings.
Her favorable to unfavorable ratio among district voters is only 1.1 to 1, with her
unfavorable ratings almost equal to her favorable ratings.

 More importantly, a majority of voters in the district, fifty-one percent (51%) believe
that Dahlkemper does not deserve re-election and that it is time to give a new person
a chance. Fully fifty-six percent (56%) of Independent voters believe that it is time
for a new person. There are only thirty-seven percent (37%) who indicate they
believe that she has done a good enough job to deserve re-election.

 The political environment in the district heavily favors Kelly and Republicans. A
majority of district voters, fifty-two percent (52%) indicate that they disapprove of
the job that President Obama is doing and 60% have an unfavorable impression of
Nancy Pelosi (50% strongly unfavorable.)

 Republicans hold a commanding +10 point advantage on the generic ballot for
Congress, and both the Republican nominees for Governor and the U.S. Senate are at
50% on their ballot tests and also hold significant leads over their Democrat
opponents.

###

-3-