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Idliketoremindeveryone thattheideaImabouttopresentisanexistingpositioninour
portfolio.Wemaycloseoutourpositionatanytime.
2
CoreLabisanoilfieldservicebusinessthathelpsenergycompaniesanalyzetheirreservoirs,and
increasetheiroilandgasrecovery.
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay5,2017.
3
CoreLabhastwosegments:ReservoirDescriptionandProductionEnhancement.
ReservoirDescriptionisanassetlight,labbasedbusinessthatanalyzes reservoirrocksand
fluids.
Coreisconsideredthetechnologicalleaderinthefield,andin2016thissegmentaccountedfor
71%ofrevenues.
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay5,2017.SegmentdescriptionsfromCLB2016Form10K.Reservoir
ManagementreassignedtoothersegmentsasdescribedonSlide9.Imageusedwithpermissionof
www.cartoonstock.com.
4
MajoroilcompanieswhodomuchofthisworkinhouserelyonCoreforanalysisoftheirmost
complexreservoirs,whereCorehasearnedareputationforbeingbestinclass.
_____________
ImageusedwithpermissionofWarrenMiller;TheNewYorkerCollection/TheCartoonBank.
5
Thesegmentsrevenuesandmarginshavebeenfairlystable becauseitspecializesinmultiyear
projects,especiallyoffshoreanddeepwater.
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay5,2017.SegmentdescriptionsfromCLB2016Form10K.Reservoir
ManagementreassignedtoothersegmentsasdescribedonSlide9.
6
ProductionEnhancementprovidestoolsandservicesrelatedtowellcompletionandproduction.
In2016thissegmentgenerated29%ofrevenue.
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay5,2017.SegmentdescriptionsfromCLB2016Form10K.Reservoir
ManagementreassignedtoothersegmentsasdescribedonSlide9.ImageusedwithpermissionofZacharyKanin;
TheNewYorkerCollection/TheCartoonBank.
7
Thisbusinesssellsperforatinggunsandchargesprimarilytofrackers,andofferswelldiagnostic
servicestoglobalE&Pcompanies.
GunsandchargesareacompetitivemarketinwhichCorecompetesagainstTitan,Schlumberger
andothers.
Overtwothirdsofthissegmentsrevenuecomesfromproductsratherthanservices,which
makesProductionEnhancementatypicalcommoditypricesensitiveoilfieldbusiness.
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay5,2017.SegmentdescriptionsfromCLB2016Form10K.Reservoir
ManagementreassignedtoothersegmentsasdescribedonSlide9.
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ProductionEnhancementisthesmallerandlessprofitablepartofthebusiness.
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay5,2017.SegmentdescriptionsfromCLB2016Form10K.Reservoir
ManagementreassignedtoothersegmentswithReservoirDescriptionreceiving75%andProductionEnhancement
receiving25%.
9
CoreLabisnotcheap.Onconsensusestimates,thestocktradesat35xnextyearsearningsand
nearly27x2019estimates.
_____________
Source:BloombergLPconsensusfigures,retrievedMay2017.
10
Andittradesatamassivepremiumtoitsoilfieldservicepeers morethantwicethemultipleof
priorpeakearnings.
TworeasonsbullsgivetojustifythisareCoresseeminglyseculargrowth,anditsindustry
leadingReturnonInvestedCapital(ROIC).
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay5,2017.PeerconstituentsselectedinthesolediscretionofGreenlight.2018
P/EpresentationexcludesOceaneeringIntlratioof129.5inthesolediscretionofGreenlightasthisisnota
meaningfulfigureforinvestors.
11
Thegreatthingabouthighreturnbusinessesisyoucancompoundyourearningsbyreinvesting
yourprofitsathighreturns.
Coreis anoncapitalintensivebusiness.Analytically,theROICinanoncapitalintensivebusiness
isirrelevant,becauseyoucantreinvestyourprofitstogrowyourearningsatthestatedROIC.
Corecouldhavetwiceasmuchlabequipmentwithoutgaininganynewcustomers.
ItisflawedtovaluethestockbasedonitsindustryleadingROIC.
_____________
ImagelicensedunderaCreativeCommonsAttributionNonCommercial 2.5License.
12
Asfortheseculargrowth,wethinkthisisamisunderstanding thatdatesbackto2009,andstill
persiststoday.
_____________
Bizarro usedwithpermissionofDanPiraro,KingFeaturesSyndicateandtheCartoonistGroup.Allrightsreserved.
13
Letslookatthelastcycle.
Whentheoilpricebrieflycollapsedin2008,therevenueofmostoilfieldservicecompanies
collapsedalongwithit.
Coresrevenuefelltoo,butonlybarelyandmuchlessthanothersintheindustry.
Coremanagedtomaintainsalesandevengrowmargins.
Subsequently,revenuesandmarginscontinuedtoclimb.
Faced withthisdissonance,analystsneededanexplanation.
Andtheonetheycameupwithwaswrong.
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay5,2017.
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Coresstabilitythroughthedowncyclefollowedbygrowthintherecoverygavethefalse
impressionthatCoreisaseculargrowthcompany.
_____________
Bizarro usedwithpermissionofDanPiraro,KingFeaturesSyndicateandtheCartoonistGroup.Allrightsreserved.
15
Analystsbeganhypingthe companyasaseculargrowthstorygenerallyimmunetooilprice
volatility.
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InvestorsagreedandreratedCoretoanoncyclicalgrowthstockmultiple.
Corebecameamarketdarlinganditsvaluationdivergedsharplyfromotherglobaloilfield
servicecompanies.
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay2017.PeerconstituentsselectedinthesolediscretionofGreenlight.
17
Analystsweresoconvincedthatatyearend2014,afteroilpriceshadalreadybeencutinhalf,
theystillprojectedthatCorecouldmaintainearningsthroughthedownturn.
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay2017.YE14consensusreflectsmeanestimatesasofDecember31,2014.
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Theanalystsandtheirprojectionswerewrong.
Andthougha74%declineinearningsovertwoyearsshouldhavemadeanalystsandinvestors
reconsiderthenarrative,theyhavent.
Insteadtheycontinuetovaluethecompanyasaseculargrower.
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay2017.
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Inreality,Coreisacyclicalbusinesswhoseparticularproductsuitewaslessaffectedbythe
2009downturnthanothercompaniesintheindustry.Corewasintherightplaceatthe
righttimeinthelastcycle,butnotthistime.
_____________
BibleTailscreatedbyJonHuckeby andNicholasDeYoungDaySpring Cards.UsedbyPermission.
www.dayspring.com
20
Likealloilfieldservicebusinesses,Core has twoprimaryrevenuedrivers:
Theotheris theendmarketswhereinvestmentdollarsarebeingspent.
21
Readingtheannualreports,youdconcludethatCoreLabhappenstobesteepedinthehottest
partsoftheenergymarketinanygivenyear.
Letshavealook.
22
At theendof 2007,whennaturalgaspriceswerespiking,Corestimeprovenstrategywas
aboutexplorationinCanadianoilsands,tightgassand,andshalegasreservoirs.
_____________
Source:CLBannualreportsfortheyearspresented,availableathttp://www.corelab.com/investors/financial
report.
23
By 2009, Corereframeditshistory,forgotaboutnaturalgas,andsaidthatforthelastseven
yearsithadfocusedoninternationaldevelopmentandproductionrelatedcrudeoilprojects
almosttotheexclusionofmorecyclical,explorationrelatedactivities.
_____________
Source:CLBannualreportsfortheyearspresented,availableathttp://www.corelab.com/investors/financial
report.
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Attheendof 2011whenshale wasthemarketdarling,Corescontinuedinternationalcrudeoil
focusmorphedtoincludeshale.
_____________
Source:CLBannualreportsfortheyearspresented,availableathttp://www.corelab.com/investors/financial
report.
25
A yearlatershalewasout,andCorehadalaserfocusoninternationaldeepwateroil,whichit
promisedinvestorswouldpositionthecompanyforgrowthoverthenextdecade.
_____________
Source:CLBannualreportsfortheyearspresented,availableathttp://www.corelab.com/investors/financial
report.
26
In2013,shalecamebackeverywhere.NotjustinNorthAmerica,butintheU.K.,Russia,North
Africa,theMideast,China,Australia,andotherplaces.
_____________
Source:CLBannualreportsfortheyearspresented,availableathttp://www.corelab.com/investors/financial
report.
27
In2014and2015,Corewantedustobesurethatitwasntmissingoutontheliquefiednatural
gas,orLNG,boom.
_____________
Source:CLBannualreportsfortheyearspresented,availableathttp://www.corelab.com/investors/financial
report.
28
ReadingCoresannualreportsislikeopeningatimecapsulepreservingthehistoryofenergy
markethype.
Youdalmostexpectthemtostarttalkingaboutmachinelearning.
_____________
Source:CLBannualreportsfortheyearspresented,availableathttp://www.corelab.com/investors/financial
report.
29
Oh
_____________
Source:April20,2017Q12017CLBearningscall.
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Hypeaside,letslookatwhereCoreactuallymakesmoney.
_____________
ImageusedwithpermissionofRichardCline;TheNewYorkerCollection/TheCartoonBank.
31
The GAAPreportingunderstatesCoresforeignexposurebecausewhenCoresendsfluidsfroma
wellinoffshoreAngolatoitslabsinHouston,itcountsitasU.S.revenue.
Inearningscallsandcompanyreportsgoingbackto2009,Coresays70%ormoreofitsrevenue
originates fromreservoirsoutsidetheU.S.,andlastyearitwascloserto80%.
_____________
Source:Revenuesbyregionfrom:
October22,2009Q32009CLBearningscall
September7,2011BarclaysCEOEnergyPowerConference
December4,2012Dahlman Rose&CoUltimateOilService&E&PConference
January31,2013Q42012CLBearningscall
October23,2014Q32014CLBearningscall
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Remember,Coreisbestpositionedinthemostcomplexreservoirs,soitisnosurprisethat
deepwaterdrillingisitsmostimportantendmarket.
_____________
Source:CEODavidDemshuratBarclaysAmericasSelectFranchiseConferenceheldonMay21,2013.
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Coreisacompanywhose primecustomersarebigcompaniesinbigfieldsoutsidetheU.S.
_____________
Source:CEODavidDemshuratBarclaysAmericasSelectFranchiseConferenceheldonMay21,2013.
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Fundamentally,CoreistiedtocapitalspendingoutsideofNorthAmerica.
_____________
ImageusedwithpermissionofMickStevens;TheNewYorkerCollection/TheCartoonBank.
35
Internationalcrudeoilprojectscomewithmultimilliondollarbudgetsandtypicallylastfor
severalyears,whichmakesthemlesssusceptibletotheshorttermvolatilityofcommodity
prices.
Whenoilpricescollapsedin2008,capexoutsideNorthAmericabarelyfell.Oilquickly
recoveredabove$90abarrelin2009onitswayto$100,whereithoveredforthenext
fouryears.Thisledtoaflurryofinternationalcapitalspending.
_____________
Source:GlobalCapitalExpendituresfromEvercore ISI:The2017Evercore ISIGlobalE&PSpendingOutlook,
December9,2016.RevenuesfromBloombergLP,retrievedMay2017.
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Inthisdowncycle,oilpriceshavefallenfurtherandstayeddownlonger.Foreigncapexhas
collapsedandthistime,sohaveCoresrevenues.
_____________
Source:GlobalCapitalExpendituresfromEvercore ISI:The2017Evercore ISIGlobalE&PSpendingOutlook,
December9,2016.RevenuesfromBloombergLP,retrievedMay2017.
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UnlikeitsmoreU.S.focused peers,Corewasridingtheinternationalcapex cycleallalong.
Itwasneveraseculargrowthstory.
_____________
ImageusedwithpermissionofJ.B.Handelsman;TheNewYorkerCollection/TheCartoonBank.
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Withtodaysoilpriceoutlook,therearefewernewmultimilliondollar,multiyear,international
deepwaterprojectsthatbenefittedCoreinthelastcycle.
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay5,2017.
39
Thesearesomecompanieswithheavyoffshoreexposure.
Clearlythemarketunderstandstheoutlookhere.
Thesecompaniesarecrawlingalongthebottom,tradingatverysmallmultiplesofpriorpeak
earnings,becausethat capitalspendingisnotpoisedtorecoveranytimesoon.
_____________
Source:GreenlightcalculationusingBloombergLPpricingdata,retrievedMay2017.Indexedconstituentsselected
inthesolediscretionofGreenlight.
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Offshorespending,whichtodaygeneratescloseto50%ofCoresrevenuesandevenmore
ofitsprofits,islikelytodeclineforyearstocome.
AnditsherewhereCorereallyneedsarecoverytomakeitsstorywork.
_____________
Source:DouglasWestwoodWorldOFSandOFEMarketForecastReportsQ22016.
41
LeadersofSchlumbergerandHalliburtonpointoutthatonlyNorthAmericanshale
investmentisgrowing.
_____________
Source:SLBQ12017earningscallonApril4,2017;HALQ12017earningscallonApril24,2017.
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ThisisaproblemforCorebecauseNorthAmericaisntabigopportunityinthehighmargin
ReservoirDescriptionsegment.
Shaledoesnthavecomplexreservoirssothereslittleneedfortheultrahightechservicesthat
Corespecializesin.
Whilea1,000footcorefromdeepwateroffshoreWestAfricaisa$2$3millionopportunity,a
similarcorefromNorthAmericanshalegeneratesonlyonetenth therevenue.
_____________
Source:April20,2017Q12017CLBearningscall.
43
WhatCorereallyneedsismoredeepwaterdrillingtogeneratemorehighmarginrocksto
analyze.
_____________
ImageusedwithpermissionofDanAbromowitz andEliDreyfus;TheNewYorkerCollection/TheCartoonBank.
44
Still,Coremanagementknowsasexynumberwhenitseesone,soinCoreslastearnings
release,thecompanytrumpetedits32%sequentialgrowthintheU.S.landportionofits
ProductionEnhancementsegment.
_____________
Source:CLBQ12017earningsreleaseonApril19,2017.
45
Butthisissuchasmallpercentageofitsbusinessthat Coredoesntevendiscloseit.
Corebraggingabouta32%increaseonwhatweestimatetobe1015%ofitstotalrevenue
isabitlike Congressbraggingabouta32%increaseinitsapprovalrating.
_____________
Source:GreenlightcalculationsusingdataretrievedMay2017from
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval903.html.
46
Ofcourse,thesellsideisconfused.UBSmistakenly thinksU.S.shale is3035%ofrevenues.
_____________
Source:UBSInitiationofCoverage,CoreLaboratoriesNV,December13,2016.
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Coresbusinessisnotaseculargrowthstory.
Likeeveryotheroilfieldservicecompany,Corealwayswas,andremains,acyclicalbusiness.
Andthistimearound,itsexposedtotheleastdesirablepartofthesector.
Forittorecover,itneedsmuchhigheroilprices thekindthatwillbringbackthemost
adventurousoffshoreandforeignexplorationefforts.
_____________
ImageusedwithpermissionofFrankCotham;TheNewYorkerCollection/TheCartoonBank.
48
CoreCEODavidDemshurknowsthis,andheshappytotellyouwhereoilpricesaregoing.
Asapeakoilguy,hesconvincedoilpricescanonlygooneway.
_____________
Source:February2015EnerCom OilandServicesConference.
49
InJanuary2013,hesaidthatrobusteconomicgrowthcouldpushBrentbackto$150abarrel.A
yearlater,hecalledforittostayabove$100.
InOctober2014,withoilplunging,hecalledforareturntoearly2014levelsbyearly2015.
Ninemonthslater,hecalledthebottom,addedthatoilcouldntgobelow$40andcalledfor
Brenttobeabove$80bytheendof2015.
Brentfinishedtheyearat$36.
AndinJuly2016,Demshurswitched frombeinganoilexperttoatechnicalanalyst,arguingthat
onceoilbreachedthe$50resistanceitwouldmoveintothe60dollarrange.
_____________
Source:
January31,2013Q42012CLBearningscall:Ifwegetsomerobusteconomicgrowtharoundtheworld,we're
goingtoseecrudeprices,Brentprices,rightbackat150.
January30,2015Q42014CLBearningscall:SoouroutlookisthatBrentstaysnorthof$100,andfor2014
goingforward,sparecapacitybecomeslessandless.
October23,2014Q32014CLBearningscall:Webelievecrudeoilmarketswillbalanceearlyin2015withcrude
oilpricesstrengtheningtoearlier2014levels.
July28,2015DavidDemshur interviewonMadMoney:Dontthink[sub40WTI]isadistinctpossibility;I
thinkwewillseeWTIsomewherebetween$70and$80byyearend...Wearebottomingrightnowoncrudeoil
pricesavailableathttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p8tMOYDoEo.
July20,2016DavidDemshur interviewonMadMoney:Onceoilbreaksthrough$50,itwillgoto$60range
availableathttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4Yk_GhMNMU.
50
Inthecompanysmostrecentearningscall,Coreclaimstohavecalledthebottomofwhatit
insistswillbeaVshapedrecovery.
_____________
Source:CLBQ12017earningsreleaseonApril19,2017.
51
Andnotforthefirsttime.
DavidDemshurhasbeencallingforaVshapedrecoverysinceearly2015whenoilwasat$48
andhesaidwedseetherecoveryinlate2015.
If hesrightthistime,hewillhavecalledsevenofthelastonebottoms.
_____________
Source:BloombergLPpricing,retrievedMay5,2017and:
January30,2015Q42014CLBearningscall:Aswasthecasein2009,CoreseesaVshapedrecoverystartingto
occurinlate2015,andthatechoescommentsfromHaroldHammmostrecently.;So,thatswhyweare
predictingaswedidbackin20082009asaVshapedrecovery.
April23,2015Q12015CLBearningscall:CoreseesaVshapedrecoveryledbyhighercommoditypricesand
thenshortlytherefollowedbyincreasedworldwidedrillingactivitiesinthestartinearly2016.
July23,2015Q22015CLBearningscall:CoreseestheVshaperecovery,ledbyhighercommoditypricesand
followedbyworldwidedrillingactivities,startingtoincreaseinearly2016.
October22,2015Q32015CLBearningscall:CorecontinuestoseeaVshapedrecoverygettingunderwayin
2016.TheindustryisstillonthelefthandsideofthisVgoingintoQ4perhapswithactivityupticksinearly2016.
April21,2016Q12016CLBearningscall:Therefore,oursecondquarter2016resultsshouldmarkthebottomof
ouranticipatedVshapedcommodityrecoverythatshouldleadtoincreasedcrudeoilpricesfollowedby
increasedindustryactivitylevels.
July21,2016Q22016CLBearningscall:Therefore,oursecondquarter2016resultsshouldmarkthebottomof
ouranticipatedVshapeworldwidecommodityrecovery,followedbyincreasedcrudeoilpricesandexpanded
industryactivitylevelsworldwide.
January26,2017Q42016CLBearningscall:AsprojectedbyCoreinearly2016,thethirdquarterof2016
markedthebottomoftheVshapedrecoverywhichisnowunderway.Thisrecoveryshouldcontinueto
strengthen,withhighercommoditypricesandsubsequentactivitylevelsas2017progresses.
52
In fact,wedontbelievethereisaVshapedrecovery certainlynotinoilprices.
_____________
Imageusedwithpermissionofwww.cartoonstock.com.
53
Sometimes,iftheVyouhopedfordoesntoccur,youcreateyourownV.Lookatthisgraphic
fromtheannualreportpublishedlastweek.Youdthinkthepriceofoilhadrecovered.
ItmightsurpriseCoretolearnthatwhenyoustartat$79andfinishat$55youarelowerthan
whereyoubegan.
_____________
Source:MessagefromtheExecutiveTeamwithinCLBs2016annualreport,availableat
http://www.corelab.com/investors/cms/docs/annual_report/2016_annual_report.pdf.
54
Followingthattheme,analystsarecallingforaVshapedrecoveryinCoresrevenuesoverthe
nextfouryears.
Wedontseeanysuchthing.
_____________
Source:BloombergLPconsensusfigures,retrievedMay2017.HistoricalCLBrevenuesfromBloombergLP,
retrievedMay2017.
55
WethinkCoreislikelytomiss.With itsdependenceonoffshoreandinternationalcapex,Core
shouldunderperformsomeofthesameNorthAmericanorientedpeersthatitoutperformed
lasttime.
_____________
Source:Greenlightestimates.CLBconsensusrevenuesandmarginfromBloombergLP,retrievedMay2017.
56
Takingallofthistogether:weexpectCoresearningstodisappointoverthenextfewyears.
Onourestimates,Coreistradingatover36x2019earnings.
_____________
Source:Greenlightestimates.CLBconsensusearningspersharefromBloombergLP,retrievedMay2017.
57
Lookingatthe10yearhistory,itsarguablethatthereisnosecularearningsgrowthhere.A
generousvaluationwouldbeamarketmultipleonmidcycleearningsof$3.50,whichwedont
thinkCoreislikelytoobtainuntil atleast2021. Thisgetsusafairvalue of$62or45%below
todaysprice.
_____________
Source:Greenlightestimates.CLBearningsandconsensusestimates,andS&P500forwardP/EfromBloombergLP,
retrievedMay2017.
58
Atcurrentpricesinvestorsarepayingapeakmultipleforearningsthatarepoised todisappoint.
Andinvestorsarenttheonlyonesoverpaying.
_____________
ImageusedwithpermissionofBruceEricKaplan;TheNewYorkerCollection/TheCartoonBank.
59
JustasKanyeloveshimself
60
Overthepastupcycle,Coreboughtbackstockeveryquarter,apparentlyregardlessofshare
priceandoperationaloutlook.Coreevenresortedtodrawingonitsrevolvertofundmore
buybacks,apracticethatcontinuedaslateas2015,evenaspeerswerepreparingtheirbalance
sheetsforaprotracteddownturn.
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay2017.
61
Bymid2016,CorewasforcedtoreversecourseandsellequitytoavoidtrippinganEBITDA
covenantthatcouldhaveputitsdividendatrisk.
From2012through2015,weestimateCoreissuedroughly$230millionindebttopurchase
stockatanaveragepriceof$144pershare;thenin2016Coresold$200millioninstockat$118
persharetorepaythatdebt.
_____________
Source:GreenlightestimatesandcalculationsusingBloombergdataonnetborrowings,cashspentonshare
repurchases,andCLBsaveragepriceeachquarterusingbeginningandendingprices.
62
Core alsolikestopayadividend.Forthelast5quarters,ratherthancutthedividend,the
companyhaspaidoutmorethanithasearned.
Ithasfundedtheshortfallbysellingstock.
Whenacompanyraisesfreshmoneyfromnewinvestorstosustaintheincomerequirementsof
existinginvestors,thereisanameforthat.
_____________
Source:BloombergLP,retrievedMay2017.
63