Built with XBRLAnalyst by FinDynamics, Inc.

Valuation model of:

HARLEY DAVIDSON INC HOG
Fiscal period 2014-Q3
$100
Days after last annual report 271
Valuation, per share $90
Share Price (Period End) $60.54
Per Share Equity Valuation $67.29
Share Price (Yesterday Closing) #NAME? Share pri
$80

Sensitivity Analysis Estimate $70

Sales of Goods Growth $67.29
2% $63.27
3% $64.48 $60
4% $65.68
5% $66.86 $50
6% $68.04
7% $69.20 $40
8% $70.34 2%
9% $71.46
6.90%
 Sensitivity Analysis for Share Price
Valuation Model Market
$100

$90

Share price, $
$80

$70

$60

$50

$40
2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
Sales of Goods (Annual growth rate)
 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O
1
2
Built with XBRLAnalyst by FinDynamics, Inc.
3
4 Valuation model of:
5 HARLEY DAVIDSON INC HOG
6 Dollar value scaling: 1,000,000
7
8 Latest report details:
9 Fiscal period 2014-Q3
10 [End of Period] #NAME?
11 [Filing Date] #NAME?
12 [Document Type] #NAME?
13 Year 2013
14 Days after last annual report 271
15
16 Assumptions Years Most Recent Average Value Used
17 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM 2010-2013
18 Revenue growth rate:
19 Sales of Goods #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 7.57% 5.36% 5.36%
20 Financial Services #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1.49% 7.98% 1.49%
21 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 6.90% 5.43% 5.43%
22 Cost margins:
23 Cost of Sales 67.67% 65.82% 66.63% #NAME? 64.58% 63.45% #NAME? 65.56%
24 Financial Services Costs 57.33% 39.91% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 24.49% #NAME? 32.94%
25 SG&A 20.48% 21.00% 19.97% #NAME? #NAME? 18.39% #NAME? 18.39%
26 Other Costs 8.82% 5.28% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1.26% #NAME? 2.19%
27
28 Depreciation of Assets 8.90% 6.71% 6.39% 6.09% 6.30% 7.02% 6.30%
29
30 Interest and tax rates:
31 Interest earned on cash 0.41% 0.62% 0.57% 0.55% 0.61% 0.54% 0.54%
32 Interest rate on debt 1.59% 0.79% 0.85% 0.87% 0.29% 1.02% 1.02%
33 Tax Rate 33.50% 30.86% 35.11% 34.13% 34.73% 33.40% 33.40%
34
35 Dividend Payout Ratio #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 26.61% 32.49% 26.61%
36
37 Balance sheet items:
38 Current Assets Excluding Cash/Revenue #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 51.82% #NAME? 51.82%
39 Current Liabilities/Revenue #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 43.53% #NAME? 43.53%
40 Net Total Fixed Assets/Revenue #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 13.29% #NAME? 15.23%
41 Finance Receivables Growth Rate 17.04% -5.00% #NAME? #NAME? 11.38% #NAME? 11.38%
42 Total Borrowing/Revenue #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 87.54% #NAME? 87.54%
43 Current Portion of Debt 27.01% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 34.36% #NAME? 25.91%
44
45 Income Statement Actual Projected CAGR
46 ACCOUNTS, US $ millions 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2009-2013 2014E-2018E Difference
47 Revenue
48 [Sales, Net] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 5,569 5,783 6,093 6,420 6,764 7,127 5.24% 6.27% 1.03%
49 [Financial Services] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 650 658 667 677 687 698 - - #VALUE!
50 [Revenue] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 6,219 6,441 6,761 7,097 7,452 7,825 - - #VALUE!
51 Check OK OK #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? OK
52
53 Costs and expenses
54 CostOfGoodsSold #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 3,533 3,791 3,995 4,209 4,435 4,672 - - #VALUE!
55 FinancingInterestExpense #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 159 217 220 223 226 230 - - #VALUE!
56 [Selling, General & Administrative Expense] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1,143 1,184 1,243 1,305 1,370 1,439 - - #VALUE!
57 Other Costs 422 257 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 78 141 148 156 163 172 - - #VALUE!
58 [Costs and Expenses] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 4,914 5,333 5,606 5,893 6,194 6,512 - - #VALUE!
59
60 Depreciation #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 175 176 186 204 219 236 -9.25% 7.14% 16.39%
61
62 [Operating Income] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1,305 1,107 1,155 1,205 1,257 1,312 55.74% 2.61% 53.14%
63 Check OK #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? OK
64
65 InvestmentIncomeNet #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 6 5 6 7 8 8 - - #VALUE!
66 [Interest Expense] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 15 36 39 44 46 48 - - #VALUE!
67 [Earnings Before Taxes] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1,296 1,077 1,122 1,168 1,219 1,272 - - #VALUE!
68
69 [Income Taxes] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 450 360 375 390 407 425 - - #VALUE!
70 [Income From Continuing Operations] 71 260 548 624 734 846 717 747 778 812 847
71 Check OK #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? OK
72 [Net Income] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 846 717 747 778 812 847 - - 0.00%
73
 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O
74 Earnings (loss) per common share
75 [Number of Shares] 234 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 218 218 218 218 218 218 -1.56% - #VALUE!
76 [EPS Basic] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 3.89 3.28 3.42 3.56 3.72 3.88 - - 0.00%
77 [Dividends per share] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1.04 0.87 0.91 0.95 0.99 1.03 - - #VALUE!
78
79
80 Balance Sheet Actual Projected CAGR
81 ACCOUNTS, US $ millions 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Most Recent 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2009-2013 2014E-2018E Difference
82 Assets
83 [Cash & Cash Equivalents] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 980 1,300 1,405 1,474 1,502 1,482 -10.07% - #VALUE!
84 Current Assets Excluding Cash #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 3,223 3,338 3,503 3,678 3,861 4,055 - - #VALUE!
85 [Current Assets] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 4202 4,637 4,908 5,151 5,363 5,537 - - #VALUE!
86
87 Fixed Assets
88 Fixed Assets at Cost 2,959 2,772 2,605 #NAME? 2,803 2,787 3,117 3,352 3,607 3,881 4,173 -1.35% 8.29% 9.63%
89 [Accumulated Depreciation of PP&E] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1,961 2,137 2,323 2,527 2,746 2,982 - - #VALUE!
90 [Net of Property, Plant & Equipment] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 827 981 1,029 1,081 1,135 1,191 - - #VALUE!
91
92 [Finance Receivables+] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 4,653 5,060 5,636 6,277 6,991 7,786 - - #VALUE!
93 PrepaidPensionCosts 0 0 0 0 0 262 0 0 0 0 0
94 [Other Non-current Assets+] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 81 300 300 300 300 300 - - #VALUE!
95 [Assets] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 10,026 10,978 11,873 12,809 13,789 14,815 0.67% - #VALUE!
96 Check OK OK #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? OK
97
98 Liabilities and Shareholder`s Equity
99 {LongTermDebtCurrent}+{ShortTermBorrowings #NAME? 1,232 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1,871 1,461 1,533 1,609 1,690 1,774 - - #VALUE!
100 Other Current Liabilities 746 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 836 1,343 1,410 1,480 1,554 1,632 - - #VALUE!
101 [Current Liabilities] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2707 2,804 2,943 3,089 3,244 3,406 - - #VALUE!
102
103 [Long Term Debt+] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 3,573 4,177 4,385 4,603 4,833 5,075 - - #VALUE!
104 [Long Term Liabilities Excluding Debt+] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 461 461 461 461 461 461 - - #VALUE!
105 StockholdersEquity #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 3,284 3,536 4,084 4,655 5,251 5,873 - - #VALUE!
106 [Liabilities & Equity] #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 10,026 10,978 11,873 12,809 13,789 14,815 0.67% - #VALUE!
107 Check #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? OK
108
109
110 FCF Calculation Projected
111 ACCOUNTS, US $ millions 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E DCF Valuation
112 [Net Income] 717 747 778 812 847 WACC 8.7%
113 Add Back Depreciation 176 186 204 219 236 Long-Term
5.4%
114 Add Back Increase In Current Liabilities 294 139 147 154 162 Growth Rate
115 Substract Increase In Current Assets Excluding (415) (166) (174) (184) (193)
116 Substract Increase In Fixed Assets At Cost (314) (235) (255) (273) (293)
117 Add Back After-Tax Interest Expense 24 26 29 31 32
118 Substract The After-Tax Interest On Cash (4) (4) (5) (5) (5)
119 Free Cash Flow To Firm FCFF 478 694 723 754 786
120
121
122
123 FCF Calculation Projected
124 ACCOUNTS, US $ millions 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
125 Estimated Free Cash Flow To Firm 478 694 723 754 786
126 Terminal Value - - - - 25,055
127 Total Cash Flow 478 694 723 754 25,841
128
129
130 Valuation, per share 2014-09-28
131
132 PV Of Future CF And Terminal Value 19,158
Sensitivity Analysis for Share Price
133 Add Initial Cash 980 $100
134 Firm Value 20,138
135 Substract Total Debt (5,444) $90
136 Equity Value
137 Number of Shares (Basic)
14,694
218
Share price, $
$80
138
139 Share Price (Period End) $60.54
$70
140 Per Share Equity Valuation $67.29
141 Share Price (Yesterday Closing) #NAME?
142
$60
143
$50
144 Sensitivity Analysis Estimate Current price
145
$40
2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
Sales of Goods (Annual growth rate)
Valuation Model Market
 $80

$70
$60
$50
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O
146 Sales of Goods Growth $67.29 #NAME? $40
147 2% #NAME? 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
148 3% #NAME?
149 4% #NAME? Sales of Goods (Annual growth rate)
150 5% #NAME?
151 6% #NAME?
Valuation Model Market
152 7% #NAME?
153 8% #NAME?
154 9% #NAME?
155 6.90%
156
157 Share Price WACC
158 $67.29 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
159 Long-Term FCF Growth 0%
160 1%
161 2%
162 4%
163 6%
164 8%
165 10%
166 12%
100000 >User defined financial concepts
100001 Income (LoIncomeLossFromContinuingOperations
100002 AccumulateAccumulatedDepreciationDepletionAndAmortizationPropertyPlantAndEquipment
100003 Other Non-Goodwill;OtherAssetsNoncurrent;DeferredTaxAssetsNetNoncurrent;DeferredTaxA
100004 Long Term D
L efinedBenefitPensionPlanLiabilitiesNoncurrent;OtherPostretirementDefinedBen
100005 Long Term LongTermDebtNoncurrent;LongTermDebtHeldByConsolidatedVariableInterestEnti
100006 Finance ReNotesAndLoansReceivableNetNoncurrent;FinanceReceivablesHeldForInvestment
pertyPlantAndEquipment
Noncurrent;DeferredTaxAssetsLiabilitiesNetNoncurrent
ostretirementDefinedBenefitPlanLiabilitiesNoncurrent;OtherLiabilitiesNoncurrent;DeferredTaxLiabilitiesNoncurren
datedVariableInterestEntityNoncurrent;LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations
ablesHeldForInvestmentNoncurrent;RestrictedFinanceReceivablesHeldByConsolidatedVariableInterestEntityNon
edTaxLiabilitiesNoncurrent

ariableInterestEntityNoncurrent