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Note: we will analyze weekly data, which implies that we are planning to create a portfolio for one week. If you want to create a portfolio for a month, quarter, year - you need to use monthly, quarterly
and annual data, respectively. Usually investors create portfolios for at least several month. We just use weekly data for convenience (2008 market distorts all the statistics and analysis)
Let's create a simple portfolio consisting of 5 stocks (the number of stocks as well as the stocks themselves are just taken from the head).
We take Apple (AAPL), Citi (C), General Electric (GE), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Alcoa (AA). I tried to pick the stocks from different sectors.
Let's imagine that currently we are at the end of 2009. We will analyze 2009 data, modify our portfolio and see what will happen to it in 2010
Correlation matrix
AAPL C GE XOM AA
AAPL 1.000 0.574 0.501 0.463 0.587
C 0.574 1.000 0.729 0.357 0.517
GE 0.501 0.729 1.000 0.449 0.619
XOM 0.463 0.357 0.449 1.000 0.550
AA 0.587 0.517 0.619 0.550 1.000
Now let's draw a couple more matrices to simplify valuation. We do all this just following the formula for portfolio risk calculation shown above
Weights multiplication matrix (to calculate wi x wj from the formula for portfolio risk)
AAPL C GE XOM AA
AAPL 0.033 0.035 0.041 0.033 0.040
C 0.035 0.036 0.043 0.035 0.042
GE 0.041 0.043 0.050 0.041 0.049
XOM 0.033 0.035 0.041 0.034 0.041
AA 0.033 0.035 0.041 0.034 0.041
Risk matrix
AAPL C GE XOM AA
4.9% 19.1% 9.0% 3.3% 8.6%
4.9% 19.1% 9.0% 3.3% 8.6%
4.9% 19.1% 9.0% 3.3% 8.6%
4.9% 19.1% 9.0% 3.3% 8.6%
4.9% 19.1% 9.0% 3.3% 8.6%
Risk multiplication matrix (to calculate i x j from the formula for portfolio risk)
AAPL C GE XOM AA
AAPL 0.002 0.009 0.004 0.002 0.004
C 0.009 0.037 0.017 0.006 0.016
GE 0.004 0.017 0.008 0.003 0.008
XOM 0.002 0.006 0.003 0.001 0.003
AA 0.004 0.016 0.008 0.003 0.007
Now we multiply three matrices' values: correlation matrix, weights multiplication matrix and risk multiplication matrix
2 = 0.00547
To get a risk for our portfolio we simply need to get a square root from this figure
= 7.4%
Now we see that the risk of our portfolio is higher than for S&P index (3.6%)
But at the same time our portfolio offer better expected return. What should we do in that situation?
Just go to the next step for an answer
As a risk free rate we take 10Y US treasuries yield at the end of 2009 and divide it by the number of weeks in a year to get a weekly risk-free return
Rf = 3.807% / 52 = 0.1%
Let's calculate this coefficient for all the stocks in the portfolio, for the portfolio itself and for S&P index. We already know all the inputs, so it should be easy
Investors should choose the assets with the highest Sharpe ratio as it assumes higher excess return for a unit of risk
In our case Apple would be the best choice
STEP 5 BETA ()
Beta describes the relation of the asset's return to the market return
If Beta = 1, the price for the asset changes in the same way as the market index.
If Beta = 0, there are no relation between the asset and the market
If Beta = -1, the asset's and the market's price go in opposite directions
If Beta > 1, the price of the asset changes more than by 1% for every market movement by 1%
If Beta >1, the price of the asset falls by more than 1% every time market goes up by 1%; and it growth more than by 1% every time the market falls by 1%
Beta equals the covariance between the asset's and market's returns divided by market's variance
Ra - return of asset
Rp - return of the market (or of the portfolio)
For covariance use COVAR function in excel and for variance - VAR function
Below is the calculation of Beta for each stock and for portfolio
You might notice that Citi has a Beta equal to 3.71. That's unusual. But if you remember 2009 was the crisis year and banking sector demonstrated the highest volatility
The first thing you might notice is that the Sharpe ratio for our portfolio is lower than for S&P index which means that the latter provide better relation of risk and return.
At the same time our portfolio has Beta equal to 1.68 which means that if the market grows, our portfolio grows faster
And here is a new portfolio with all the suggested changes (look at the number of shares)
Last price (end Number Share in
Ticker of 2009), $ of shares Position $ portfolio
Apple AAPL 209.04 17 3,554 25.7%
Citi C 3.35 1000 3,350 24.3%
General Electric GE 15.44 200 3,088 22.4%
Exxon Mobil XOM 68.66 11 755 5.5%
Alcoa AA 16.34 187 3,056 22.1%
Portfolio 13,803 100%
We changed the number of shares for Apple, Citi and Exxon Mobil to get approximately the same total position in $