Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

EUR/USD: (1.2925) New recovery high on move above 1.2454 has approached last target at
1.3032.

FOREX EUR=EBS,39 (1.2934, 1.2935, 1.2926, 1.2927, -0.0006)

1.3029 1.305
HOURLY CHARTS
1.300
1.295
1.290
1.285
1.280
1.275
1.2723 1.2732
1.270
1.265
1.260
1.255
1.2454 1.250
1.245
1.240
1.235
1.230
1.225
1.220
1.215
1.210
1.2110
1.205
1.200
1.195
1.190

1.1876 1.185
1.180
28 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 Jul
New recovery high on move above 1.2454 (see graph: neckline Head&Shoulders bottom) has approached last
target of pattern (1.3032).
Trying to extend back above channel off 1.1876 (see graph).
Support area at 1.2877/ .2872 (reaction low hourly/ broken daily Short Term Moving Average→), with next levels
at 1.2847 (weekly Bollinger midline), ahead of 1.2811 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↑) and 1.2803/ .2797
(daily/ weekly envelope bottoms), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.2732/ .2722 (current reaction low off 1.3029/ break-up weekly): tough on 1st attempts..
Resistance at 1.2966/ .2976 (reaction high hourly/ daily envelope top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3029/ .3032 (current recovery high off year low + modified weekly Standard Error band
top/ see above), ahead of 1.3053 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend top) and 1.3095/ .3124 (May 10 high/ daily
Bollinger top + 38.2% 2009 high to 1.1873): tough on 1st tests, amid overextended readings.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
1.2877/.2872 (see above) 1.2966/ .2976 (see above/ daily envelope top)
1.2811 (daily MT MA↑) 1.3029/ .3032 (see above)

1.2803/ .2797 (daily/ weekly envelope bottoms) 1.3053/ .3095 (see above/ May 10 high)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

USD/JPY: (87.63) New year low but currently back in channel off 94.99 (see graph)
FOREX JPY=EBS,39 (87.62, 87.64, 87.59, 87.62, -0.01)
92.89
93.0

92.5

92.0

91.5

91.0

90.5

90.0

89.5
89.15

89.0

88.5

88.0
88.11
87.58
87.5

87.0
86.96
86.5

86.27
86.0

28 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 Jul

New year low scored on move below daily Uptrendline off 2009 low (90.55 today) but currently back in channel
off 94.99 (see graph).
Resistance at 87.76/ 87.80 (daily Bollinger midline + daily Medium Term Moving Average↓/ daily envelope top),
with next levels at 88.06/ .08 (breakdown daily/ hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 88.29/ .37 (reaction high hourly + modified daily Standard Error band top/ weekly enve-
lope top), ahead of 88.91 (daily Downtrendline off 94.99): tough on 1st attempts.

1st support area at 87.30/ 87.20 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑/ reaction low hourly), with next levels at
87.00 (daily envelope bottom), ahead of 86.73/ 86.59 (reaction lows hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 86.48 (daily Bollinger bottom), ahead of 86.34/ 86.27 (last week low/ current new year
low): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
87.76/ 87.80 (daily MT MA↓ + see above/ daily enve-
87.30/ .20 (see above)
lope top)
87.00 (daily envelope bottom) 88.06/ .08 (breakdown daily/ hourly)

86.73/ .48 (see above/ daily Bollinger bottom) 88.29/ .37 (see above/ weekly envelope top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/GBP: (.8370) Rebound off new year low tested channel top off .8810 (see graph)
FOREX EURGBP=,22 (0.8362, 0.8371, 0.8359, 0.8371, +0.0007)
.8532

0.850

0.845

.8382 0.840

.8376
0.835

.8317 0.830

0.825

.8210 0.820

.8180
0.815

0.810

.8067 0.805

31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 J

Rebound off new year low broke daily channel off .9130 (broken top at .8297 today).

1st Support area at .8350/ .8345 (reaction low hourly/ daily Bollinger midline), with next levels at .8318/ .8317
(last week low/ July 13 low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8306 (daily envelope bottom), ahead of .8301/ .8297 (weekly envelope bottom/ see
above): tough on 1st attempts.
1st Resistance area at .8381 (reaction high hourly), with next levels at .8404/ .8412 (daily Short Term Moving
Average↓/ daily envelope top + weekly Medium Term Moving Average↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8444 (reaction high hourly), ahead of .8466 (idem) and .8492/ .8495 (weekly envelope
top/ modified daily Alpha Beta trend top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

.8350/ .45 (see above/ daily Bollinger midline) .8381 (see above)

.8404/ .8412 (daily ST MA↓/ daily envelope top + weekly

.8318/ .8317 (last week low/ July 13 low)
MT MA↓)

.8306/ .8301(daily/ weekly envelope bottoms) .8444/ .8466 (reaction highs hourly)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/JPY: (1123.18) Rebound off new year low retesting 113.43 (see graph)
FOREX EURJPY=EBS (113.34, 113.35, 113.06, 113.17, -0.18)
114.5

114.0

113.43
113.5

113.0

112.5

112.0

111.5

110.90 111.0

110.5

110.0

109.5

109.0

108.5

108.0

108.06 107.5

107.30 107.0

27 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 June July

Rebound off new year low retesting 113.43: Resistance at 113.43/ .47 (June 21 high + neckline daily Double
bottom/ today’s high?), with next levels at 113.68/ .73 (23.6% year high to 107.30/ daily envelope top), where
pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 114.07/ .16 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend top/ June 03 high), ahead of 114.40/ .47
(may 21 high/ daily Bollinger top): tough on 1st attempts

1st Support area at 112.47/ .40 (break-up hourly/ daily Short Term Moving Average↑), where pause favored.

If wrong, next levels at 111.99 (weekly Short Term Moving Average↑), ahead of 111.76 (daily envelope bottom) and

111.53/ .33 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom/ daily Long Term Moving Average↑): tough on 1st tests.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

112.47/ .40 (break-up hourly/ see above) 113.43/ .47 (see above)

111.99 (weekly ST MA↑) 113.68/ .73 (see above/ daily envelope top)

111.76/ .33 (daily envelope bottom/ daily LT MA↑) 114.16/ .47 (see above/ daily Bollinger top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

Brussels Research (KBC) Global Sales Force
Piet Lammens +32 2 417 59 41
Peter Wuyts +32 2 417 32 35 Brussels
Didier Hanesse +32 2 417 59 43 Corporate Desk +32 2 417 45 82
Commercial Desk +32 2 417 53 23
Joke Mertens +32 2 417 30 59 Institutional Desk +32 2 417 46 25
Dublin Research (IIB)
Austin Hughes +353 1 6646892 London +44 207 256 4848
Prague Research (CSOB) Frankfurt +49 69 756 19372
Jan Cermak +420 2 6135 3578 Paris +33 153 89 83 15
Zdenek Safka +420 2 6135 3570 New York +1 212 541 06 97
Jan Bures +420 2 6135 3574 Singapore +65 533 34 10
Bratislava Research (CSOB)
Marek Gabris +421 2 5966 8400 Prague +420 2 6135 3535
Silvia Cechovicova +421 2 5966 8405 Bratislava. +421 2 5966 8436
Warsaw Research (Kredytbank) Budapest +36 1 328 99 63
Piotr Radzewicz +48 22 6345 946 Warsaw +48 22 634 5210
Budapest Research (K&H)
Gyorgy Barcza +36 1 328 99 89
Our reports are also available on: www.kbc.be/dealingroom
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be
held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a
recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the
accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5