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22 October 2013
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Authorship
Ian Twomey Phone: +64 4 471 1109 or +64 21 688 409, e-mail:
ian@haletwomey.co.nz
Tim Labett Phone: +64 4 439 0268 or +64 21 436 146, e-mail:
tim.labett@aurecongroup.com
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Hale & Twomey Limited, its contributors and employees shall not be liable for any loss
or damage sustained by any person relying on this report, whatever the cause of such
loss or damage.
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Executive Summary
Facilities for emergency liquid fuel storage are usually large scale in order to hold the
volumes required to provide a reasonable level of supply security. This report updates
work done in the National Energy Security Assessment (NESA) Identified Issues:
Australia's International Energy Oil Obligation (2012 Report) on the options and costs
for large scale emergency stock holdings including the facility cost, the stock cost and
the operational costs to keep the facility and stock in an appropriate state of
readiness.
Emergency stocks can be held in above ground storage terminals, permanent floating
storage facilities, or underground caverns (either natural or constructed). This report
investigates four options for storage in detail; three above ground scenarios and one
permanent floating storage facility. Permanent floating storage refers to a purpose
built facility, not oil tankers moored together. Underground caverns are not
investigated in detail in this report.
The sizes for scenarios 2, 3 and 4 are set where the benefits of economies of scale
have been captured smaller terminals will cost more per litre of storage, whereas
larger terminals will have a similar cost per litre
Figure 1 shows the capital costs for each facility per cubic metre (000 litres). The cost
of the stock makes up over 60% of the total cost. In terms of facility cost, there is not
much difference in the cost per unit of storage between the larger tank farms and
permanent floating storage. The smaller expansion terminal is more expensive as it
is not large enough to capture all the scale benefits.
Hale & Twomey: Final Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
Costs
Figure 1: Capital investment per unit storage
These capital costs are lower per unit cost than a normal commercial terminal
development. This is due to the large scale involved, and because many of the
features of a commercial terminal such as tank wagon loading gantries are not
required. These estimates do not include related infrastructure such as jetties, wharf
lines and links into utilities (e.g. roads, power and water). In order to keep these costs
down, the facilities should be located relatively close to existing infrastructure (e.g.
use existing jetties, etc.).
Figure 2 shows the annual cost per storage unit (m3) assuming a 7% rate of return on
the capital, together with the land and operational costs. Providing a return on the
capital required to build the storage facility and buy the stock makes up
approximately 85% of the total cost (as shown in the red and green components in
Figure 2). Product storage is more expensive as the cost of purchasing the product is
about 10% more than crude along with higher operational costs to keep product to
specification (to maintain quality).
The charts highlight that emergency stocks are a very capital intensive investment. In
order to provide emergency stocks at the lowest possible ongoing cost they need to
be implemented in a way where the return expected on the capital is as low as
possible.
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The size of the facilities investigated in this report is substantial. Previous industry
consultation has noted there has not been construction of storage facilities on this
scale in Australia since refinery construction in the 1950s.
Hale & Twomey: Final Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary....................................................................................i
Glossary.................................................................................................... 1
1.0 Introduction.....................................................................................2
2.0 Background.....................................................................................4
3.0 Methodology....................................................................................6
3.3 Approach............................................................................................................ 7
Hale & Twomey: Final Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
Costs
Appendix 3: Comparison with IEA storage work...........................................7
Associated Reports....................................................................................9
Hale & Twomey: Final Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
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Glossary
Annual cost The cost of stockholding in a specific year - covering all costs
including a return component for the capital invested in
storage facilities and stock, land rental and storage facility
operating costs.
bbl Barrel (measure of petroleum volume = 159 litres).
Collective action Actions undertaken by the International Energy Agency to
respond to oil market disruptions. Responses include the joint
release of oil stocks, demand restraint, fuel switching and
surge production.
Commingled stocks Where emergency stocks are held in the same facilities (and
possibly the same tanks) as commercial stocks.
Commercial stocks Stocks held by commercial operators to manage their
business, including managing normal supply chain disruption.
Cubic metre (m3) Unit of storage equalling 1,000 litres
Emergency stocks Stocks held by countries specifically to manage major supply
chain disruption either globally or locally if outside the control
of commercial companies.
IEP Agreement International Energy Program Agreement (the Treaty).
Import mix The mix between crude and the various product groups in a
countrys petroleum imports.
kt One thousand tonnes.
Mega-Float Commercial name of permanent floating storage facility
designed and promoted by Japanese companies.
Operating cost The costs involved in holding emergency stock including the
storage facility maintenance and operational costs, insurance
and product quality maintenance.
Stock out Where normal market demand is not fully met such that there
is disruption to the customer supply.
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1.0 Introduction
This report updates the work on emergency liquid fuel storage from the National
Energy Security Assessment (NESA) Identified Issues: Australias International Energy
Oil Obligation report (2012 Report) produced by Hale & Twomey (H&T) for the then
Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism in 2012. In developing four options that
Australia could use to hold emergency stock, the report included calculations on the
cost of building storage facilities and holding physical stock, both crude and product,
in Australia.
The 2012 report and a follow up report, Stock on the Water Analysis (2013), found
that within Australia, the options for emergency physical storage are expensive, and
that:
Australia and New Zealand have no such facilities [i.e. large storage capacity]
in-country or any nearer than Singapore which is an 8-14 day voyage from the
manufacturing locations in Australia and a 16 day voyage from New Zealand.
The current petroleum storage facilities in Australia are used by commercial operators
to either supply the market, or export Australian production. Therefore if Australia is to
store significant quantities of emergency stock in-country, new dedicated storage
facilities will be required. The aim of this auxiliary report is to investigate the cost of
storage options within Australia in more detail, both for above ground (tank farm) and
permanent floating storage.
For above ground storage, new cost estimates specifically relating to emergency
storage have been developed. Analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA)
showed that the cost of emergency storage terminals should be significantly cheaper
(per volume stored) than a normal operating terminal.
Permanent floating storage is a purpose built facility for storing petroleum on water,
not normal oil tankers moored for a period. This report investigates permanent
floating storage through a literature review.
Cavern space (either natural or constructed) is used for emergency fuel storage in
some countries, including Germany, South Korea, the United States and Singapore
this report provides some general information on the development of storage caverns
but does not investigate this for Australia, as this option is outside this papers terms
of reference.
1 Hale & Twomey; Stock on the Water Analysis report (2013), pg13
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Information on holding stock in another country may be found in several other Hale &
Twomey reports, including the auxiliary report Australias Emergency Liquid Fuel
Stockholding Update 2013: Ticket Markets, and the Main Report 2013.
The size of the facilities investigated in this report are substantial and during the
consultation for the 2012 Report, industry noted there has not been construction of
storage facilities on this scale in Australia since refinery construction in the 1950s.
Industry also noted there is little excess storage capacity in the existing system,
although depending on the outcome of planned refinery conversions, this could be
improved slightly.. The extent and availability of assets which may not have justified
upgrading in the past but which could be brought into service for emergency stock, is
not known at this stage.
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2.0 Background
Australia is a member of the IEA where, as a signatory to the Agreement on an
International Energy Program (the IEP Agreement), it benefits from the coordination
of crude oil and petroleum product supply in the event of a major disruption to
international oil markets. Under the IEP Agreement, member countries accepted a
treaty commitment to hold crude oil and petroleum product stocks equivalent to a
minimum of 90 days of the previous year's daily net import demand, and participate
in collective actions2 initiated by the IEA during a liquid fuel emergency.
In the last few years Australia has not achieved the minimum inventory obligation set
by the IEA. With local production of crude and condensate falling and petroleum
demand increasing, the commercial stocks held by market participants are no longer
sufficient to cover the minimum commitment which is based on 90 days of daily net
imports.
The IEA includes 28 member countries and was founded in response to the 1973/4 oil
crisis. The majority of members are in Europe as shown in Figure 3. Australia, Japan,
New Zealand and the Republic of Korea (South Korea) are the only IEA members in the
Asia-Pacific region.
The majority of IEA member governments hold emergency stocks, although there are
a wide variety of approaches to holding physical stock and obtaining storage facilities.
Some governments have developed and own storage facilities; others lease storage
from the market and leave it to private providers to own and manage the facility. In
this case, storage facilities are normally secured through a tender process (which is
applicable for both existing and new facilities).
With regard to physical stock, most governments own the oil even if the storage is
leased, unless they devolve the obligation to hold stock to the petroleum industry
operating within the country. Even where industry is responsible for holding stock,
there is usually some approved central structure (e.g. stock agency) to ensure the
facilities and stock are developed and held in the most efficient way.
2 IEA collective actions cover a range of options including the joint release of stock as
an initial response to market disruption. Other responses include voluntary demand
restraint, fuel switching and surge production. The actions chosen are tailored to each
situation, involve widespread consultation and co-operation and can be instigated
rapidly.
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Some IEA countries fund emergency stock from the general government budget,
particularly non-European countries. However, many of these countries established
reserves over a long period when petroleum prices were at lower levels. Direct funding
via a consumer levy is common in Europe, and most IEA countries tax petroleum in
some way. The levy provides an annual income stream to the government or stock
agency. Large upfront costs associated with initial fuel purchases are funded by loans
to the stock agency, which are repaid through the levy income.
This Report does not examine stock ownership and management options, or funding
mechanisms which are covered in the Main Report 2013. It is a factual and technical
paper (with costings based on an engineering analysis) to enhance and provide more
detailed estimates for the work completed in 2012 by Hale & Twomey.
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3.0 Methodology
This report follows the requirements as laid out in the scope of work (3.1). The task
included obtaining an estimate from a suitable expert to provide engineering costings
for storage facilities. The 2012 Report used engineering cost estimates developed for
smaller scale terminals in New Zealand, adjusted to take account of the increased
scale and Australian costs and conditions. The new engineering estimates are
expected to be more accurate as they have been developed specifically for large
dedicated emergency storage, based on conceptual engineering designs and
associated itemised costings derived from actual Australian tank construction.
Engineering consultancy Aurecon was engaged to provide these estimates (3.2).
This report required the extraction of relevant material (updated as required) from the
2012 Report; the re-organisation of topics into a logical hierarchy, expansion or
elucidation of identified sections or issues; and new work including expert technical
input, as noted below.
iii. Storage on water: (a) permanent tanker storage; (b) stock on water (in transit,
de facto storage).
This report examines storage issues in Australia in relation to ii. Tank farms, and iii. (a)
Permanent tanker storage. Three or four generic (but based on real-world situation)
scenarios are focused on, and the following requirements are addressed:
Updated costs for tank farm construction, including storage for sole emergency
purposes, and storage for both emergency and commercial operations,
including estimates for associated infrastructure such as pipelines;
Updated costs for augmented facilities (added to existing), greenfield facilities
(new build), and identification and consideration of possible site specific and
other factors such as costs associated with geotechnics;
Discussion of options and costs obtained from available information for
permanent off-shore tanker storage, including possible suitable locations, and
associated infrastructure required; and
Updated costs should be able to be factored into modelling as required.
Engineering consultancy Aurecon was engaged to deliver new above ground storage
facility cost estimates.3. Aurecon is currently involved in terminal design and
construction in Australia for commercial clients. The scale of emergency storage
Hale & Twomey: Final Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
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facilities is expected to be significantly larger than normal operating terminals and
thus requires development of specific concepts with larger tank sizes to provide the
optimum tank size cost to storage capacity. Costs for three different concepts have
been developed.
These three concepts have been chosen so that the likely range of options for
emergency storage are considered (large dedicated facilities that could hold either
crude or product) along with large expansion of existing product terminals (if the
stocks were to be dispersed around the country). Smaller terminal expansion is not
included as emergency storage facilities are expected to be reasonably large. Product
storage does not include jet fuel due to its quality requirements making long term
storage more difficult.
For the large terminals, an approximate volume of 500 million litres has been selected,
as above this point, costs are expected to increase proportionally with volume
increase (i.e. this terminal size has captured the scale benefits).
The cost estimates are for the storage tanks and the immediate related infrastructure
including tank foundation and compounds, piping, pumps, fire protection and
electrical and control equipment. Related infrastructure that may be required
depending on the site chosen such as connecting pipeline, jetties, wharflines and
connections to utilities (roads, power, water) is not included.
3.3 Approach
While more detailed engineering estimates have been developed for above ground
storage, permanent floating storage has been investigated using a desk top study,
researching available public information. Permanent floating storage facilities are
specifically designed for the long term storage of petroleum on water. Storing oil using
temporarily moored ships is not assessed as it would be unlikely to get approval as an
acceptable long term storage option.
Following development of the storage facility costs (for both above ground storage
and permanent floating storage), other costs such as stock, operational costs and
maintenance have been updated to provide fully built up costs for emergency storage.
The 2012 Report built up likely stock costs from an international crude benchmark
price (dated Brent of USD115/bbl). This report changes the methodology and uses
Australias actual import costs for crude and product in the 2011/12 year to establish
the cost of stock.
The IEA has recently reviewed costs for emergency storage4. These costs are
compared in Appendix 3.
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All the new work has been done in Australian dollars reflecting Australian conditions.
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4.0 Physical storage overview
This section reviews the use of stocks in the petroleum supply chain and then looks
specifically at emergency stocks including the types of storage facilities, costs
involved, stock type and location decisions. Issues relating to oil purchase, ownership,
stocks management, and emergency release strategies, are covered in the Main
Report as part of the stockholding options evaluation.
Stocks are an integral part of the petroleum supply chain. Producers, refiners and
marketers all need to hold stock to manage their operations; to build stock to sell in
cargo sized quantities, to receive economic cargo quantities, to manage production
variation and to manage demand variation. Stocks held as a result of business
decisions are referred to as commercial stock. Currently all stock held in Australia is
commercial stock.
Emergency stocks are those stocks held separately from companies commercial
stock decisions. These stocks are specifically held to manage major global disruption
to the petroleum supply chain or major disruption to domestic supply chains outside
the control of the commercial companies (e.g. major natural disaster).
Emergency stocks are normally held in separate facilities from commercial stocks
although depending on how the emergency stock strategy is established, the stocks
can be commingled, either within the same facility but in separate tanks or if
managed carefully even within the same tanks.
The majority of IEA countries holding emergency stocks hold them separately in
dedicated facilities. These countries include Germany, Japan, Korea and the United
States among many others. Countries which require their commercial companies to
hold minimum quantities of stock usually have some of their emergency stocks
commingled with commercial stock. Examples include France, Japan, Netherlands and
the United Kingdom. As can be seen by the inclusion of Japan in both groups,
countries can use a combination of approaches for emergency stockholding.
The advantage of holding emergency stocks in-country means that the stocks will be
available even if international supply chains are disrupted (they may still need to be
shipped domestically) and there is very little time delay before the stocks can be
made available to the market.
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4.2 Types of physical storage
For large volume, long term storage, underground storage (especially salt caverns) is
generally regarded as the cheapest form, although natural cavern storage is
dependent on the geology of the country. Due to product quality issues, underground
storage is usually only used for crude oil.
Floating storage can be (i) temporary, particularly where the market incentive to store
oil is greater than the cost of chartering a ship, or (ii) permanent, where purpose-built
facilities are developed to hold stock.
Holding oil in storage tanks (above ground storage) is the most common form of
petroleum storage and the only method currently used in Australia to hold petroleum
stocks. Emergency stock held as product is stored in tanks as it needs to be readily
accessible for regular turn over and replacement to maintain quality.
This report reviews both above ground storage and permanent floating storage for
applicability to Australia. There are some comments on the costs of underground
storage facilities in Appendix 2.
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4.3 Cost components of emergency storage
The cost of holding emergency stocks includes both capital costs and ongoing
operating costs.
Advantage Disadvantages
5 While the land cost is derived from a capital cost, the analysis in this report converts
it to a lease cost and is therefore shown as an operating cost.
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domestic refining the type of product held,
disruptions and possibly which may not match the
domestic infrastructure disrupted supply
disruption
Most IEA countries have oil refineries6 so either have all crude or a mix of crude and
product for emergency stocks. Some countries relate the emergency stock
requirement to the import mix, in which case it would be adjusted if the import mix
changes.
For decisions on emergency stock holding type in Australia, the forward expectation of
refining capacity should be taken into account, possibly by designing any storage
terminals so that they could be switched from crude to product at a later date if all
refinery capacity were to close.
If the announced refinery closures proceed, Australias import mix is forecast to shift
from the current 40% product imports to the 60-70% range7 in the next five years.
Given this trend any emergency stock held within Australia should be weighted
towards product to match the import dependence.
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4.5 Location selection
The location for holding emergency stock is dependent on supply side issues (suitable
locations for the storage facilities) and demand side issues (where it can best meet
market demand). In countries where there is substantial internal infrastructure for
transfer of petroleum, a location can suit both the supply and demand requirement
(e.g. salt cavern storage in the United States which links into the pipeline network
distributing crude oil around the country).
Australia does not have any significant internal distribution infrastructure (apart from
the Sydney -Newcastle product pipeline). It has a network of coastal terminals with
internal distribution mainly by road (there is some point to point demand delivered by
rail) from the nearest coastal terminal. Any significant transport of petroleum around
the country is by ship as this is the only means to move large volumes of stock (for
example a medium range (MR) oil tanker can carry more than 1,000 truck transport
movements). Therefore, any sites chosen as storage terminals will be reliant on
shipping to supply any market other than the market in their immediate vicinity.
Crude
Crude is more flexible in storage location choice. If there is a location where a floating
storage facility is feasible, it would not necessarily need to be near a refinery as the
crude would be shipped in and shipped out should it be required in the refining
system. Storage tanks on land also do not have to be near a refinery, although if they
are not, the associated infrastructure (jetties, pipeline and utilities) needs to be
developed purely for the emergency storage facility. One option to avoid this is to
develop the emergency storage facilities near crude oil or condensate producing
facilities, although this may means the crude produced in the location would be type
stored in the facility (unless the location has the ability to import crude as well as the
export facilities).
Product
The value in storing product is that it can immediately be used in the market, thus
providing security for both international and domestic disruption. To provide this
security it needs to be in a location where it can meet significant demand with the
resources available for distribution internally (trucking) and be on specification.
Product stored for long periods needs to be replaced with fresh stock (turned over)
from time to time to maintain product quality. To do this, all or a portion of the stock
held is sold into the market with an equivalent volume purchased to replace it. This
process is much more straightforward and less costly if the product stock is stored
relatively close to existing product storage. The frequency of turnover depends on the
product and its quality. Experience from European stock agencies is that product stock
can remain in specification for many years without turnover. In practice the quality of
the stock is monitored and if key specifications start deteriorating it should be turned
over.
Given the potential security benefits and the need to maintain quality, product
storage should be in or close to a major demand centre. Arguably having emergency
storage in each State would provide the best supply security to all of Australia.
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5.0 Storage facility costing - establishment
5.1 Construction cost above ground storage
The detailed cost build for the three storage facility options is included in Appendix 1.
Table 2 shows the total cost and the cost per cubic metre (m 3).
The concept plans used to develop the estimates were specific to emergency storage
for large volumes. They are considerably cheaper per unit stored than a normal
commercial tank farm, where the design would typically involve smaller tanks and a
lot of related distribution equipment (e.g. road tankwagon filling gantry and yard,
more complex pipework and automation, etc.).
The concepts were not developed for a particular site. Site selection can impact the
cost through local construction costs, ground conditions, land availability, distance
from wharf and related utility infrastructure costs (e.g. power, water and road
connections).
Site selection for the storage facility is important as it will influence the amount of
spending on supporting infrastructure. In the work the IEA has done on the costs and
benefits of stockholding (IEA report)8 they note, The expense of the necessary
infrastructure (loading platforms, piping) and the jetty if needed can amount to
almost two thirds of the overall construction costs of a storage facility.
These costs have not been included in the base estimate as what is needed depends
on site selection. If a site is selected close to existing facilities then only pipelines
between the facilities will be needed and the existing jetty infrastructure can be used.
The IEA paper gives a jetty cost of between USD25-40 million depending on the size of
a ship, although that cost can be substantially higher if dredging is required to make
the jetty and port suitable for oil tankers. For the 500,000 m3 tank farm (Scenario 3)
above this spend would increase the cost by at least 20%.
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For wharflines, the pipes that connect the terminal to the jetty, Aurecon estimated this
cost to be AUD1.8 million per kilometre. The further the petroleum is pumped can also
affect both the rate it can be transferred and the size of the pumps needed.
Given the high cost of related infrastructure it would make sense to construct these
facilities relatively close to existing facilities (which could be both crude and
condensate producing and/or importing facilities for crude, or import facilities for
product).
The Aurecon report notes a number of site related factors that will influence the cost
estimate. The above estimates assume good ground conditions for tank foundations. If
the land requires ground improvement to be suitable for large storage tanks (e.g.
piling), this would add approximately 10% to the above estimate.
These storage facility cost estimates are around 10% lower than the estimates in the
2012 Report. Table 3 shows the updated cost estimate against those in the previous
report, the IEA Report and in Japanese work reviewed covering the permanent floating
storage and other strategic storage options (Japan/Vietnam study) 9. The updated
estimate, while very similar to the Japanese estimate, is still significantly higher than
the IEA cost estimate. This is discussed further in Appendix 3.
The only nation and IEA member to have developed permanent floating storage
facilities is Japan. Two of their ten national strategic stockpiles are held in floating
facilities. These facilities are purpose built facilities for long term storage. Stocks are
also held in ships from time to time (often held as trading positions) but this is not
considered appropriate for long term emergency storage so not considered in this
report.
9 Mitsubishi Research Institute, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, JGC Plant Solutions and
Japan Marine Science; Study on the Project for Development of National Strategic Oil
Stockpiling Mega-Floating System in Vietnam, Final Report. Prepared for The Ministry
of Economy, Trade and Industry Japan (February 2012).
10 Converted to US dollars using Jan-July 2013 average AUD/USD exchange rate.
11 Converted to US dollars using Jan-June 2012 average AUD/USD exchange rate.
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The Japanese permanent floating storage facilities are referred to by their developers
as Mega-floats. These are specially built storage vessels (not ships) that are linked
together in a frame and moored to the seabed. They have been promoted by the
Japanese government and the companies involved for use in other areas including
Vietnam. Table 4 provides a summary of the Mega-Float system based on the Vietnam
project development.12
Unlike the above ground storage estimate, the jetty for receiving and loading crude is
an integral part of the facility and has been included in the cost estimate. Associated
utilities have also been included although if the site was a long way from access to
utilities such as water and electricity there would be an additional cost to establish the
connections.
In the case of permanent floating storage the site selection is limited by the type of
marine environment required (sheltered deep water close to land). The actual cost is
likely to be specific to each site to some extent, especially the amount of reclamation
required and if any dredging is needed.
The 2012 Report built up likely stock costs from international crude benchmark prices.
This report changes the methodology and uses actual import costs (in Australian
dollars) for crude and product in the 2011/12 year to establish the cost of stock. The
actual import cost includes the premiums for the crudes run by Australian refineries
and the import cost. For product, the average of the cost of petrol, jet fuel and diesel
is used (as they form the majority of product imports this is close to the average of all
products). Again, the import cost reflects the cost of Australian quality product and the
freight cost to get it to Australia. Costs associated with storing the petroleum such as
turnover costs are not included in this cost. The cost will be similar for both above
ground and permanent floating storage.
The oil price is very dynamic and changes daily taking the average cost over a
period for actual imports into Australia is a more appropriate methodology than a
point in time estimate.
(AUD/bbl) (AUD/m3)
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5.4 Construction timing
Tank storage facilities take a considerable amount of time to plan, design and
construct. The size of large scale facilities (~500+ million litres) would be expected to
require significant planning time especially in site selection as suitable land is likely to
be difficult to obtain in the most suitable locations (close to existing port facilities near
main demand centres).
There may be some options that will become available with refinery closures and
import terminal conversions. For example, land and tanks that might not be needed as
part of the import terminal could be used for dedicated emergency storage.
Once the decision has been made to construct emergency storage facilities within
Australia the following planning and construction timeline has been estimated by
Aurecon:
While these storage facilities are much larger than most storage construction in
Australia over the past few decades, in practical terms, Aurecon advise that there are
a number of contractors capable of constructing the facilities. It would be feasible to
build some facilities concurrently if facilities were built in different states.
Alternatively, there may be cost advantages by staging construction in the same
region so the workforce requirements can be smoothed.
The Japan/Vietnam study gave an implementation time of five years for permanent
floating storage including site survey and design13.
In the 2012 report, for government ownership the upfront capital costs were recovered
by depreciating the storage facility over 40 years and providing options for a 5% and
10% rate of return on the capital invested (note oil stock was not depreciated as it is
assumed to retain its value, like land). The industry ownership cases were assessed at
10% and 15% rate of return.
Through the Department of Industry, advice for providing a return on the capital
invested in projects of this size has been obtained from the Office of Best Practice
Regulation (OBPR). They have advised to use a base case of 7% return with sensitivity
cases of 10% and 3%. They note that these returns take depreciation into account, so
depreciation is not treated separately (for either the facility or the stock).
Storage facilities are long life assets with a storage terminal normally expected to
have a 40-year life. If the facilities are going to have no other purpose than to store
emergency stock, this life needs to be accounted for in the way the owners return on
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investment is secured. If the decision is made to reduce or stop the holding of
emergency stock before the end of the asset life, while the stock can be sold to
recover capital invested there may need to be ongoing payments to the facility owner
for the facility depending on the arrangements set when the investment was made.
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6.0 Storage facility costing: on-going costs
Holding physical stock requires resources to manage both the stock and the facility.
Factors that need to be considered include:
Operating costs;
Maintenance costs;
Product quality management and stock turnover;
Land costs; and
Management and administration.
Based on engineering advice, the 2012 report assumed an annual maintenance cost
for larger terminals (~500 million litres) of 1.5% of the terminals capital cost; an
annual operating cost of AUD1.05 million for product and AUD0.60 million for crude.
This equated to a cost of AUD1.40/bbl/year for product and AUD1.20/bbl/year for
crude. By contrast the IEA paper gives a cost of USD2-3/bbl/year14 for a stand-alone
facility and USD1-2/bbl/year for an add-on facility where these costs can be integrated
with those of an existing facility.
The 2012 report assumed that these facilities would be close enough to an existing
facility such that operating and maintenance costs were add-on. However insurance
was not included in the figures used in the 2012 report, so the operating cost has
been increased to cover this. This increases the cost to AUD1.64/bbl/year for product
and AUD1.52/bbl/year for crude - in line with the IEA paper add-on costs. It should be
noted that these costs will be higher if a facility is built well away from any existing
facility.
An operations and maintenance cost of 2.1% of construction cost is quoted for the
floating storage facilities15. Insurance at 0.2% of cost (for stock and facility) is added
to this estimate.16
How often stock needs to be turned over (sold and replaced) to maintain quality is
open to debate. Advice obtained from the New Zealand market was that it may need
to be annual, whereas European stock agencies noted they had kept product stock on
specification without turnover for many years. Taking a balanced position the 2012
report assumed turnover every four years to ensure quality is maintained, giving an
annual turnover cost of USD0.50/bbl/year. There was no turnover cost assumed for
crude as crude can be stored for long periods without turnover.
The IEA paper commented that many stockholding agencies have found that rotation
of product usually does not occur more often than once every six years. They did
acknowledge that often the product held in storage had to be sold at a discount
compared to the purchase of replacement product; this premise was used for the
estimate in the 2012 report.
Hale & Twomey: Final Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
Costs
While acknowledging crude did not need to be turned over, the IEA paper only gave
an average cost for turnover of ~USD0.15/bbl/year rather than a separate one for
crude and product.
This paper continues to separate the cost for crude and product but based on the IEA
paper, reduces the turnover assumption for product to once every five years.
Therefore turnover cost assumptions are:
Crude Nil
Product USD0.40/bbl/year
The 2012 report obtained land costs from 2011 Bureau of Resource and Energy
Economics (BREE) information, and used a capital cost of AUD600,000/hectare. The
recommendation from the Australian Office of Best Practice Regulation was to use a
lease cost taking account of any land remediation at end of contract. We do not have
lease costs available so continue to use the BREE cost but have inflated it by 10% to
reflect a 2013 cost (i.e. AUD 660,000/hectare). This is then converted to a lease cost
based on the return required.
The 2012 report used a storage volume per hectare of land of around 18m3/hectare
(14.7kT). The volumes to be stored in the new designs are more substantial (between
28-39m3/hectare). The earlier estimate was based on a smaller terminal (smaller tanks
will result in less stored per hectare) and the new concepts have been specifically
designed to maximise the storage in a given land area (e.g. choosing 60,000m 3 tanks
rather than 100,000m3 tanks which require a greater area). This was done as land is
often at a premium close to port/jetty facilities.
Aurecon estimates do not include land costs these are added separately as part of
operating costs.
The level of management and administration costs depends on the strategy used to
implement emergency stock holdings. Therefore they have not been included in this
cost analysis.
Hale & Twomey: Final Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
Costs
7.0 Cost summary
Table 6 shows the cost estimates for both capital and annual operating costs using the
Aurecon estimates for the storage facility, along with the stock costs covered in the
previous sections. The annual operational costs include terminal operations and
maintenance costs, the land rental, insurance and product turnover costs and are
shown in a separate column. Table 7 shows the same costs per unit stored (for both
m3 and bbls).
Table 6: Capital and annual operational costs for emergency storage options
Table 8 shows the total annual cost for each facility where the annual cost includes a
component providing a recovery on the capital spent along with the annual
operational costs. The recovery factor for the capital uses a 7% return for the base
case with variations shown for 3% and 10%. While emergency storage is a long term
strategic decision, as depreciation is included in the assumed return there is no
specific length of time in this analysis. Table 9 shows the total annual costs per unit
stored (for m3 and bbls).
Hale & Twomey: Final Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
Costs
Table 8: Annual emergency storage costs (AUD millions)
Hale & Twomey: Final Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
Costs
Appendix 1: Physical storage costs and details (Aurecon
report)
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Appendix 2: Cavern storage
There are two types of cavern storage salt caverns (natural formations) and rock
caverns (natural and constructed). Salt caverns are developed by flushing the salt
deposits from underground deposits leaving a cavern that can then be used to store
oil. Rock caverns require excavation to develop the underground storage facility. The
IEA Report gives the following development costs for cavern storage (initial capital
cost):
In the Asia Pacific region, Korea has rock cavern storage and Singapore is currently
developing a rock cavern storage facility. In Singapores case the incentive is to free
up land currently used for above ground storage. The publically released cost of
developing the Singapore rock cavern has been given as SGD890 million which works
out as USD75-80/bbl (~USD490/m3). This is two to three times higher than the upper
end of the IEA Report estimate. The Japan/Vietnam study paper on floating storage
gives a construction cost for underground cavern storage of USD466/m3 more in line
with the Singapore cost than the IEA Report estimate17.
Product (petrol, jet fuel and diesel) is not usually stored in underground storage due to
the risks with maintaining product quality.
As well as geology there are a number of other issues to consider when using
underground storage including seepage, construction time, percentage of
unrecoverable liquid and the cost of removing the oil. These issues are beyond the
scope of this report and would require specific investigation, particularly the
applicability to Australian conditions.
Hale & Twomey: Final Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
Costs
Appendix 3: Comparison with IEA storage work
During 2012 and 2013 the International Energy Agency (IEA) carried out a review of
the Costs and Benefits of Stockholding (IEA-SEQ (2013)20) (IEA Report). Of relevance
to this report, the IEA Report developed costs for storage facilities to hold emergency
stock. Facility costs were developed for above ground facilities (both standalone and
add on to existing facilities), salt caverns and rock caverns.
The costs used in this report are relatively similar to the IEA Report except for the
construction cost of above ground storage, where this report has developed cost
estimates specifically relating to Australias costs and conditions.
Like the estimates in this report the cost estimate assumed a large terminal (about
500,000 m3) specifically developed for emergency storage. They noted that the cost is
significantly less than a small, more complex, distribution terminal as illustrated in the
following chart.
Hale & Twomey: Final Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
Costs
Source: IEA- SEQ (2013)20-Costs and Benefits of Stockholding Final Report.
The IEA report acknowledged that there are likely to be some differences with
emergency storage facilities in Australia18, two of which impact the construction cost.
The emergency storage estimate for large facilities developed for this report is
AUD390-404/m3 (~USD60/bbl), almost double the IEA estimate. The reasons outlined
by the IEA Report explain some of the difference. These and other factors include:
18 IEA- SEQ (2013)20-Costs and Benefits of Stockholding Final Report. pg. 15.
19 Mitsubishi Research Institute et al, pg. 33.
Hale & Twomey: Final Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
Costs
Associated Reports
The following list includes all the reports produced by Hale & Twomey (H&T) for the
Department of Industry (formerly the Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism,
or RET) relating to Australias International Energy Agency (IEA) Agreement on an
International Energy Program, along with related reports by H&T and other authors.
This report is highlighted.
Main reports
National Energy Security Assessment (NESA) Identified Issues: Australias
International Energy Oil Obligation (2012 Report)
Auxiliary reports
Ticket Markets
Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Ticket Markets (2013)
Infrastructure - Storage
Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
Costs (2013)
Australias Emergency Liquid Fuel Storage. Terminal Concept Design and Cost
Estimate. Aurecon. (2013) (also included in the Appendix of the above report)
Infrastructure Refineries
National Energy Security Assessment (NESA) Identified Issues: Competitive
Pressures on Domestic Refining (2012) public report
20 This report was produced jointly for RET and the New Zealand Ministry of Business,
Innovation and Employment.
Hale & Twomey: Final Australia's Emergency Liquid Fuel Stockholding Update 2013: Oil Storage Options &
Costs