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TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Priorities USA
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
Global Strategy Group
DATE: May 26, 2017
RE: New Poll & Messaging Guidance on Russia, Health Care & Other
Issues Affecting Voters Lives
Summary

President Trumps ties to Russia, and the controversial firing of FBI Director James Comey amid the federal
investigation into Trumps campaign, are taking a noticeable toll on Trumps numbers. In the latest tracking poll
conducted for Priorities USA, Trumps disapproval rating stands at 54%, up from 46% in late April. This spike in Trumps
disapproval is powered by a 14-percent rise among independents, and it represents the highest disapproval rating
seen since our tracking surveys began in January.

There is also growing evidence that concern over Trump and Russia, along with the health care issue, is starting to
affect voter opinion about control of Congress. By a 7-point margin, more voters now say they are more worried that
Republicans will not do enough to hold Trump accountable than that Democrats will go too far a clear shift from
previous polling.

While the poll shows that the firing of James Comey and other concerns related to Russia are major liabilities
for Trump himself, the health care issue plays a bigger role in dragging down Republicans in Congress. By
47% to 35%, more voters express concern about the support of GOP lawmakers for the controversial health
care bill than their opposition to an independent investigation into Trump and Russia.

While the American people support congressional Democrats aggressive questioning of Trumps Russia connections,
which has succeeded in sowing doubts about Trump and should continue, a key imperative for Democrats and
progressive organizations is to bring even greater attention to the health care issue in the weeks and months
to come. In addition to the fact that the impacts of the health care proposal directly affect voters lives in significant
ways, disapproval of the health care proposal transcends partisan lines. Furthermore, health care needs the added
reinforcement since it is less dominant in the news compared to Russia, which has been the subject of new revelations
for several weeks in a row. As a result, more voters say theyre closely following news about Russia right now than
say the same about health care.

Health Care

Even while it has gotten less attention in the news recently, voters are closely following the Houses passage of the
Republican health care bill (70% are following it) and the results are highly damaging to Republicans in Congress.
58% of voters, including 57% of independent voters, are less likely to reelect their representative in Congress
if they voted in favor of the Republican health care plan. Voters reaction to recent news on Donald Trumps health
care policies has been highly unfavorable (27% favorable to 53% unfavorable) as well.

It is important for voters particularly persuadable Trump voters to understand more clearly that Trump is responsible
for the harmful elements of the House health care bill, and Democrats should shine a spotlight on the fact that Trumps
health care bill directly contradicts his campaign promise to expand health care coverage and lower costs. His budget
includes many of the most damaging aspects of the Republican health care bill, and Democrats should use this fact to
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show voters the hardship that President Trump, not just Congress, intends to inflict on American families.

Russia and the FBI Investigation

An astronomical 82% of voters are closely following news about President Trump and his connections to Russia, and
they are not liking what they hear. Voters reactions to recent news of Trumps dealings with Russia and Putin (26%
favorable to 57% unfavorable) and Trumps dealings with the FBI and former Director James Comey (26% favorable
to 58% unfavorable) are equally unfavorable by a 2-1 margin.

President Trumps firing of FBI Director Comey gives 63% of voters doubts about the job he is doing as president,
including 64% of independent voters.

In a shift from previous polls, more voters now believe that Republicans in Congress are not doing enough to be a
check and balance on Trump (49%) than believe that Democrats in Congress are going too far in opposing what Trump
is trying to do (42%). Democrats were at a four point disadvantage on this issue in previous polling. This substantial
shift is largely driven by independents.

This should be seen as a warning sign to congressional Republicans. Republicans who are dragging their feet
on the Trump-Russia investigation are in danger of taking ownership of this issue and being on the receiving
end of more blame from voters.

Voters are already less likely to reelect a Republican who refuses to hold Trump accountable on Russia and opposes
an independent investigation into Trumps Russia ties, including the firing of James Comey in the middle of his FBI
investigation and Trumps leak of classified information to the Russians, by a 56% to 13% margin. That includes 55%
of independents who say it makes them less likely support the Republicans reelection.

Trump and Congressional Republicans Are in Trouble

Beyond just Russia and health care, Trump has entered dangerous territory on a range of other issues impacting
voters lives. Like with health care, these issues are not getting much attention in the press and therefore will be
important to communicate on for progressive campaigns and allies. Nearly all of these numbers have gotten worse
since our last tracking poll, many by significant margins.

When asked for reactions to what they have heard recently about Trump, voters had unfavorable reactions to Trumps:

Dealings with Russia and Vladimir Putin

o May: 26% favorable to 57% unfavorable
o April: 22% favorable to 46% unfavorable
Health care policies
o May: 27% favorable to 53% unfavorable
o April: 25% favorable to 50% unfavorable
Economic policies
o May: 35% favorable to 42% unfavorable
o April: 36% favorable to 37% unfavorable
Immigration policies
o May: 33% favorable to 51% unfavorable
o April: 37% favorable to 46% unfavorable
Temperament and leadership style
o May: 30% favorable to 59% unfavorable
o April: 34% favorable to 51% unfavorable
Ability to work with Congress
o May: 26% favorable to 49% unfavorable
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o April: 25% favorable to 46% unfavorable

Truthfulness in the things he says
o May: 25% favorable to 57% unfavorable
o April: 31% favorable to 50% unfavorable
Ability to get things done
o May: 39% favorable to 47% unfavorable
o April: 40% favorable to 42% unfavorable
Foreign policy and dealing with other countries
o May: 36% favorable to 47% unfavorable
o April: 36% favorable to 43% unfavorable
Dealing with the FBI and former Director James Comey
o May: 26% favorable to 58% unfavorable
o April: N/A

These troubles are not limited to Trump. Support for Trump and his policies raises serious issues for congressional
Republicans as well. Voters were asked whether each of the following issues would make them more or less likely to
reelect their member of Congress:

A Republican who supports Trumps proposed tax plan, which cuts taxes for millionaires and big corporations
but will shift more of the tax burden onto the middle class. (15% more likely to 60% less likely)
A Republican who supports Trumps proposed budget, which cuts many programs that people depend on like
Meals on Wheels, after-school programs, student loans, job training programs, and medical research. (17%
more likely to 56% less likely)
A Republican who supports Trumps immigration priorities, including building a wall on the Southern border
with Mexico and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants, even children and people who have no
record of serious crimes. (27% more likely to 54% less likely)
A Republican who does not believe in climate change and supports Trumps proposed cuts to EPA funding
and policies which will be bad for the environment by reducing enforcement of air and water pollution laws.
(17% more likely to 57% less likely)
A Republican who supports Trumps agenda of rolling back access to legal abortion and denying health
coverage for those who rely on Planned Parenthood. (17% more likely to 57% less likely)

About This Poll

Garin-Hart-Yang and Global Strategy Group conducted this poll by telephone May 18 May 23, with a representative
national cross section of 1,000 presidential year voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, and care has
been taken to ensure that the geographic and demographic divisions of the electorate are properly represented based
on past voter turnout statistics.