Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

EUR/PLN: (3.9950) Below 4.0120 (see graph)

FOREX EURPLN=D2, (3.9944, 3.9949, 3.9944, 3.9949, +0.0009)

4.2400 4.26
HOURLY CHARTS 4.25
4.24
4.23
4.2060 4.22
4.2050
4.21
4.20
4.1790 4.19
4.18
4.1550 4.17
4.16
4.15
4.14
4.13
4.12
4.11
4.10
4.09
4.08
4.07
4.06
4.05
4.04
4.0405 4.03
4.02
4.01
4.0120 4.00
3.99
3.98
3.97
3.96
3.9400 3.95
3.94
3.93
3.92
3.91
3.90
3.89
3.88
3.87
2010 J J
Below 4.0120 / 4.0405 (see graph) and 200 Day Moving Average↓ (4.0494 today), with daily Bollinger
bottom being tested (3.9963).
Resistance at 4.0115/ .0131 (reaction high hourly/ daily envelope top), with next levels at 4.0330 (daily
Short Term Moving Average↓), ahead of 4.0494 (see above), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 4.0650/ .0692 (current week high/ daily Medium Term Moving Average↓): tough
on 1st attempts.
Support at 3.9963/ .9930 (daily Bollinger bottom/ daily projection band bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 3.9756/ .9726 (broken daily Fibonacci Fan Line/ daily envelope bottom), ahead of
3.9700/ .9667 (break-up daily/ modified daily Alpha Beta Trend bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

3.9963/ .9930 (daily Bollinger bottom/ see above) 4.0115/ .0131 (see above/ daily envelope top)

3.9756/ .9726 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) 4.0330 (daily ST MA↓)

3.9700/ .9667 (MT break-up daily/ see above) 4.0494/ .0650 (see above/ current week high)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/HUF: (281.70) Drop from recovery high approaching Uptrendline (see graph)

FOREX EURHUF=D2, (282.300, 282.300, 281.500, 281.500, -0.900) 294

292.10 293
292
290.55
291
290
289
288
287
286
285
284
283
282.96 282
281
280
279
278
277
276
275
275.50
274
273
272
271.15
271
270
269
268
267
266
265
264
263
262.05 262
261
260

2010 May June July

Drop from new recovery high approaching the redrawn Uptrendline off 262.05 (see graph): Support at 281.50
.05 (today’s low? + daily projection band bottom/ daily envelop bottom), with next levels at 280.51/ .19 (break-
up daily/ 38.2% 260.93 to 292.10), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 277.70 (break-up hourly + weekly modified Standard Error band bottom) and 276.70/
.51 (July b14 low/ (July 22 low/ 50%): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance at 283.40 (daily Bollinger midline), ahead of 284.75/ 285.11 (breakdown hourly + daily Short Term
Moving Average↓/ daily envelope top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 286.60 (reaction high hourly): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

281.50/ .05 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) 283.40 (daily Bollinger midline)

284.75/ 285.11 (daily ST MA↓ + see above/ daily enve-

280.51/ .19 (break-up daily/ 38.2% 260.93 to 292.10)
lope top)

277.70/ 276.70 (break-up hourly + see above/ July 14

286.60/ 288.20 (see above/ current week high)
low)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/RUB: (39.3150) New recovery high off year low

FOREX EURRUB=,22 (39.3200, 39.3485, 39.2868, 39.3050, -0.0200)

39.6470
39.7
39.6
39.5
39.4
39.2796 39.3
39.2
39.1
39.0
38.9
38.8
38.7
38.6
38.6200 38.5
38.4
38.3
38.2
38.1
38.0
37.9
37.8975
37.8
37.7
37.6
37.5

37.4455 37.4
37.3
26 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 June July

New recovery high off year low (see graph).

1st Support at 39.2359 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑), with next levels at 39.1748 (daily Medium Term Moving
Average↑), ahead of 39.1346 (daily Bollinger midline + daily envelope bottom) and 39.0900/ .0496 (current week
low/ modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 38.9915 (reaction lows hourly), ahead of 35.9405 (daily projection band bottom) and
38.8750/ .8700 (July 22 low/ reaction low hourly + weekly envelope bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance at 39.3940/ .4050 (current week high/ reaction high hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 39.4414 (daily envelope top), ahead of 39.5049/ .5261 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend
top/ daily Bollinger top) and 39.6270/ .6470 (weekly envelope top/ current new recovery high off year low)):
tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

39.2359 (see above) 39.3940/ .4050 (see above/ reaction high hourly)

39.1748/ .1346 (daily MT MA↑/ daily envelope bot-

39.4414 (daily envelope top)
tom + daily Bollinger midline)

39.0900/ .0496 (current week low/ see above) 39.5049/ .5261 (see above/ daily Bollinger top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/CZK: (25.0300) Below 25.4200 and below channel bottom off 26.3000 (see graph)

FOREX EURCZK=D2, (25.030, 25.033, 25.020, 25.030, +0.000)

26.35
26.3000
26.30
26.25
26.20
26.15
26.0800
26.10
26.05
26.00
25.95
25.90
25.85
25.80
25.75
25.70
25.65
25.60
25.55
25.50
25.45
25.4200 25.40
25.35
25.30
25.3000 25.25
25.20
25.15
25.10
25.05
25.00
25.0150
24.95

2010 May June July

Below 25.4200 (see graph) and below weekly Uptrendline off low (25.5040).
Reapproaching year low year on move below channel bottom off 26.3000 (see graph) and daily Uptrendline
off Sept 2009 low (25.1770 today): Support at 25.0230/ .0150 (weekly Bollinger bottom/ year low), with next
levels at 24.9860/ .9750 (daily Bollinger bottom/ Sept 2009 low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 24.9470/ .9310 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom/ daily envelope bottom): tough
on 1st attempts.

Resistance area at 25.0700 (daily envelope top), with next levels at 25.0910/ .1000 (breakdown daily/ daily
Short Term Moving Average↓), ahead of 25.2150/ .2260 (reaction high hourly/ weekly envelope top), where
pause favored.
If wrong next levels at 25.2700/ .2800 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↓/ breakdown daily): ideal area to
stay below to keep current mood on CZK.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

25.0230/ .0150 (see above/ year low) 25.0700 (daily envelope top)

24.9860/ .9750 (daily Bollinger bottom/ Sept 2009

25.0910/ .1000 (see above/ daily ST MA↓)
low)

24.9470/ .9310(see above/ daily envelope bottom) 25.2150/ .2260 (see above/ weekly envelope top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5