TO: Interested Parties

FROM: EMC Research

DATE: May 31, 2017
RE: Likely November 2018 Voter Poll in WA CD 5
CONTACT: Ian Stewart, EMC Research, (206) 204-8032

DYNAMICS OF THE RACE

It is clear the policies and performances of Republicans in Congress and President Trump are having a
negative impact on the electability of Republican Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers.
The poll shows McMorris Rodgers is vulnerable to Democratic challenger Ben Stuckart. She heads
into the 2018 campaign with sharply negative job ratings and a majority of voters feeling that the
Country is headed in the wrong direction. Independent voters in this district are looking for a
Congressperson who will stand up to policies that negatively affect them.
Ben Stuckart has a compelling personal profile and the ability to draw sharp contrasts with McMorris
Rodgers. With the right resources, Stuckart is well positioned to defeat McMorris Rodgers in 2018.

FINDINGS

The majority (54%) of likely voters say things in the Country have gotten pretty seriously off on
the wrong track, including nearly two-thirds (63%) of self-identified Independents.

Wrong Dem 8%7% 85%

Track
Right 54%
Direction
Ind 20% 18% 63%
34% Don't
Know
12%
Rep 60% 14% 26%

Direction of the Country

Q. Do you feel that things in the Country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have
gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Methodology: This memo highlights the results of a live telephone survey including landlines and cells of likely
November 2018 voters in Washington States 5th Congressional District, conducted May 21-24, 2017. A total of 400
interviews were conducted, with an overall margin of error of 4.9 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval.
A large majority of likely November 2018 voters in WA CD 5 give McMorris Rodgers a negative job
rating (59%). Furthermore, the largest category is the most intense poor category (37%).

McMorris Rodgers has a 22-point net negative job rating overall. The percentage rating her
poor, the most intense negative rating, are equal to all of those who give her any positive
rating (37% Poor / 37% Any Positive).

McMorris Rodgers Job Rating

Negative
59%
Positive
37% Only Fair 22%

Good 25% (Don't know)

Poor 37% 4%
Excellent 12%

Q. How would you rate the job Cathy McMorris Rodgers is doing as U.S. Congresswoman?

Healthcare is the most important issue in the district, and McMorris Rodgers support for the
Republican healthcare plan is contributing to her high negative ratings as messaging on the
issue tests well for Stuckart.

McMorris Rodgers starts with under 50% of the vote (49%) with no messaging. A brief message
battery shows that Ben Stuckarts biography and issue positions are clearly appealing to Democrats
and Independents, and with these messages Stuckart shifts the race.

Initial Vote After Messaging Vote

McMorris
Rodgers Stuckart McMorris
Stuckart 49% 51% Rodgers
42% Lean 1%
Lean 1% 42%
Lean 2% Lean 2%

48% (Else/ 50% (Else/

40% Und.) 40% Und.)
8% 7%

Stuckart wins more than 50% of self-identified Independents and holds a net 16-point
advantage with them (55% to 31%) in the final vote, underscoring McMorris Rodgers
vulnerability to the challenge from Ben Stuckart.

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