ISSUE NO.

64

SPEX
SMU POLITICAL ECONOMIC
EXCHANGE
A SMU Economic Intelligence Club Publication

THE VALIDITY OF LESSON LEARNT: THE INCREASE

TRUMP'S SWEDEN'S 6-HOUR EXCHANGE BETWEEN
PEACEKEEPING WORK DAYS CHINA AND MALAYSIA
EFFORTS
Kim Siang explores Donald Ooi writes about the Timothy ponders over
Trump's latest row over lessons that Singapore China's change in strategy
alleged leaking of US can learn from Sweden's as Malaysia enters the
intelligence to the Russian two year long debate over South China Sea
foreign minister. experiment for a better issue
work life balance
 this issue in brief

The Hidden Agenda Behind Trumps Peacekeeping Efforts And

Their Validity

President Trump left for the Middle East and Europe amid a domestic
firestorm fuelled by concerns over intelligence leaks and hints
of obstruction of justice. Too much of a coincidence? We believe so too.
Join us as Yeo gives his take on Trumps sudden peacekeeping efforts.

The Increased Exchange Between China and Malaysia Might Have

More Than What Meets The Eye
The Philippines, and sometimes Vietnam, are often the focus in debates
over China's designs on and claims over the South China Sea. In recent
years, Malaysia has emerged as the budding linchpin in Beijing's
strategy to dominate the South China Sea and trade among Asean. Ang
explores the reasons for Chinas change in strategy.

Lessons Learnt From The Swedish 6 Hour Work Day Experiment

And Its Applications In Worn-Out Singapore

Sweden has been experimenting with six-hour days, with workers

getting the chance to work fewer hours on full pay, but now the most
high-profile two-year trial has ended. Singaporeans have long been
arguing for shorter work days and a better work-life balance. Through
this article, Ooi explores the merits and demerits of this 2 year long
experiment and see how the lessons learn with Sweden can be applied to
Singapore.
 Title : the hidden agenda behind trump's
peacekeeping efforts and their validity
by: kim siang
President Trump left for the Middle East and Europe amid a domestic
firestorm fuelled by concerns over intelligence leaks and hints
of obstruction of justice. President Trump boasted about highly classified
intelligence in a meeting with the Russian foreign minister and
ambassador, providing details that could expose the source of the
information and the manner in which it was collected.

The intelligence disclosed by Mr. Trump in a meeting with Sergey V.

Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, and Sergey I. Kislyak, the Russian
ambassador to the United States, was about an Islamic State plot,
according to the officials. A Middle Eastern ally that closely guards its
own secrets provided the information, which was considered so
sensitive that American officials did not share it widely within the United
States government or pass it on to other allies. Mr. Trumps disclosure
does not appear to have been illegal the president has the power to
declassify almost anything. But sharing the information without the
express permission of the ally who provided it was a major breach of
espionage etiquette, and could jeopardize a crucial intelligence-sharing
relationship. Also, President Trump called the F.B.I. director, James B.
Comey, weeks after he took office and asked him when federal
authorities were going to put out word that Mr. Trump was not personally
under investigation.

Mr. Comey told the president that if he wanted to know details about the
bureaus investigations, he should not contact him directly but instead
follow the proper procedures and have the White House counsel send
any inquiries to the Justice Department, according to those people.
Comey had no intention to curry the favour of the President.
After explaining to Mr. Trump how communications with the F.B.I. should
work, Mr. Comey believed he had effectively drawn the line after a series of
encounters he had with the president and other White House officials that
he felt jeopardized the F.B.I.s independence. However, this was not the
case and this laid out the foundation for a tumultuous time between Trump
and Comey. Leaving home for foreign lands may seem to be just what the
president needs. His advisers can be forgiven for believing that a respite
from domestic politics could be useful. Hopefully Mr. Trump will probably be
well received by foreign leaders, particularly those in the Middle East. But
there are lessons from history that suggest that using international trips to
quell investigations at home doesnt work.

When President Richard Nixon went to Saudi Arabia and Israel in June
1974 to change the domestic narrative and score an international victory, it
failed spectacularly and he resigned a month later. Nixon took off to the
Middle East in a strong international position. He was making real progress
on nuclear arms control with the Russians. The United States and the
Soviet Union had recently signed the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty and
the Antiballistic Missile Treaty. And during the trip to the Middle East,
Russian leader Leonid Brezhnev indicated that Moscow was ready to sign
a ban on underground nuclear testing. The 1973 war in the Middle East
was over, the United States had weathered the Arab oil embargo, and
Nixon and his secretary of state, Henry Kissinger, were consolidating
Americas position in the region. They did so by marginalizing Soviet
influence and redefining local relationships.

Nixons trip to Israel, the first of a sitting United States president, came after
months of intensive visits to and from leaders occupying the upper echelon
of the government to secure peace in the region. In Egypt he received a
heros welcome and concluded an agreement with Cairo that would help
pry Egypt from its dependence on Moscow. In Saudi Arabia, Nixon was the
kings guest at a lavish banquet in the presidents honor.
The potential for international breakthroughs was through the roof.
Unfortunately, it was also quite clear that Nixon was using his trip to
distance himself from the domestic scandals of Watergate and the anti-
Vietnam movement, which was gaining momentum. Like Nixon, Mr. Trump
is hoping to start over a new leaf by jump-starting peace efforts in the
Middle East. While meeting with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas this
month, Mr. Trump said that achieving Middle East peace may be not as
difficult as people have thought.

There has been little discussion about what role the Russians could or
should play, a notable omission given how dominant Russias position in
the region has become over the past several years. This is a trick Trump
has been using for years to come and only now in the more discerning
public eye as President of the USA. It is of course possible that Mr. Trump
will succeed and gain international support that will bolster him at home.
But if there is a lesson from history it is that United States voters care first
and foremost about domestic politics, and international trips, even
successful ones, dont plaster over problems at home. There are eerie
overtones of the Nixon administration playing out as we wade through
todays domestic scandals created by the Trump administration. This
weeks trip is just another reminder that history has a way of repeating itself
if one doesnt learn from it. We should all wish the president the best of
luck in restarting peace talks and bringing together the Muslim, Christian
and Jewish worlds and can only hope that some good will come out from
Trumps attempt to take on the Middle East.
references

1. New Russia probe leaks threaten to derail Trump's foreign trip

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-mideast-
idUSKCN18F0EM

2. Trump tells Israel Iran will never have nuclear weapons

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39973197

3. Trump says concerns about Iran driving Israel, Arab states closer
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-israel-idUSKBN18I0BB

4. In Israel, Trump urges new Middle East harmony but faces old
suspicions https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-
security/trump-lands-in-israel-prepares-to-confront-thorny-mideast-
peace-politics/2017/05/22/4de379a2-3ecc-11e7-adba-
394ee67a7582_story.html?utm_term=.6f4287005ec4

5. The President Just Told a Room of Israelis That He "Just Got

Back From the Middle East"
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/05/22/trump_to_israelis
_we_just_got_back_from_the_middle_east.html

6. The Middle East welcomes Not President Obama

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-goldberg-trump-saudi-
20170522-story.html
Title: The increased exchange between China
and Malaysia might have more than what
meets the eye
by: Timothy Ang
The Philippines, and sometimes Vietnam, are often the focus in debates
over China's designs on and claims over the South China Sea. In recent
years, Malaysia has emerged as the budding linchpin in Beijing's strategy
to dominate the South China Sea and trade among Asean.

In the past week, Malaysia's economic ties with China have shifted into
the realm of geopolitics and security. This was made apparent during
talks between Prime Minister Najib Razak and President Xi Jinping last
week in Beijing, where both leaders pledged to explore an array of
initiatives that could be formalised at their next meeting. The wish list,
according to Malaysian government officials, includes the following points.
Firstly, it ensures China's lead role in developing the high-speed rail
project that would not just involve linking Kuala Lumpur and Singapore
but also serve as a commitment to build a connection to Bangkok.

Secondly, a dedicated oil pipeline will be providedto service China's

energy needs. This will cut across peninsular Malaysia, running from
Bagan Datuk on the coast of Perak in the Strait of Malacca to Bachok, the
coastal town in the east-coast Kelantan state that faces the South China
Sea. Thirdly, there will be joint explorations between China's state oil
companies and Malaysia's national oil giant Petronas to exploit resources
in overlapping territories in the South China Sea.

Lastly, a regional counterterrorism centre that features radar surveillance

capabilities provided by China in the Johor state that neighbours
Singapore will be provided. All these are sensitive wishes and the
passage of these proposals is by no means assured, given the domestic
and regional challenges Kuala Lumpur is likely to face. Nevertheless,
these ambitious plans underscore China's desire to control the South
China Sea and build leverage over the Malacca Strait. There are a
number of reasons behind China's current focus on Malaysia. China
already has virtual control over the Mekong, the region's most important
inland waterway.

Despite opposition from local fishermen in Thailand and Laos, Beijing is

barrelling ahead with plans to dynamite a series of rapids and river
islands to allow for the passage of 500-ton cargo ships. Tapping on this
advantage, fresh infrastructure for land and sea can be established to
help China spread its influence in the 10-nation archipelagic Asean,
which Beijing considers as its southern hinterland. Malaysia occupies
one of the most strategic positions along the Strait of Malacca and
South China Sea trade routes that carry over US$5.3 trillion (S$7.4
trillion) worth of global trade annually and fits into Chinas plans
perfectly.

China is spearheading a number of port projects on the east and west

coasts of peninsular Malaysia that will be connected by a RM55 billion
(S$17.7 billion) rail link to create a land bridge that could significantly
alter trade routes on the busy Strait of Malacca and the South China
Sea that currently go via Singapore. This proposed 620km electrified
line will snake its way from Tumpat, which is located near Malaysia's
north-eastern border with Thailand, down the coast to Kuantan Port, a
stretch that houses Malaysia's main oil and gas facilities, before cutting
through the mountainous central region to Port Klang, Malaysia's
largest port fronting the Strait of Malacca. Apart from infrastructure
development, Chinese state-government companies and private
interests are constructing steel plants, and manufacturing facilities
producing locomotive and rolling stock for railway ventures and textiles,
intended for export to the Asean markets and beyond.
China's growing presence in Malaysia has been stoking domestic
unease. There are suggestions that the leaning towards China is a direct
result of the fallout from the debacle at state-owned 1Malaysia
Development Berhad, a brainchild of Datuk Seri Najib that is at the
centre of a global money- laundering probe in several countries,
including the US and Singapore. China has not only ignored the
international tarring of the Najib administration over the financial scandal,
but has also stepped up to the plate to take over assets linked to 1MDB
as part of a plan to help the state-owned entity deal with its mountain of
debt.

Confidants of the Premier privately acknowledge the 1MDB link but they
note that the China tilt is also part of a wider strategy by the Najib
administration to deal with Malaysia's growing economic challenges. A
one-time regional manufacturing powerhouse, Malaysia is being buffeted
by competition for limited foreign direct investment from other more
competitive regional economic destinations, such as Indonesia and
Vietnam. Lower revenues from oil and commodity exports have forced
the government to make the difficult policy choices of slashing subsidies
and imposing a goods and services tax that have led to sharp spikes in
the cost of living. Malaysia is hoping to generate new growth drivers that
will help turn it into a key player in the wider Asean economic community
by cooperating with Malaysia.

The recent interaction between President Xi and Mr Najib discussed

during the Beijing session last week spotlights the desire to deepen
economic links between the two countries. What makes things worse is
that these ambitions are heavily laced with security and geopolitical
drivers. In particular, the proposal for a regional counterterrorism centre
that will feature radar surveillance capabilities proposed by China may
be too much for Malaysia's closest neighbours who want to ensure
freedom in the movement of trade in the Strait of Malacca and the South
China Sea.
It is evident now that the recent increase in exchange between the
Chinese and Malaysian government has more than what meets the
eye. We can only hope that the points brought up during the article
remain speculation.
references
1. Southeast Asia Warms to China as Cherished Asean Unity Is
Restored https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-
27/southeast-asia-warms-to-china-as-cherished-asean-unity-restored

2. U.S. may be losing East Asia to China

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2016/12/19/commentary/world-
commentary/u-s-may-losing-east-asia-china/#.WSNW6miGM54

3. China tries chequebook diplomacy in Southeast Asia

https://www.ft.com/content/abb35db2-a4cc-11e6-8b69-02899e8bd9d1

4. Are US allies in Southeast Asia defecting to China?

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/11/malaysia-philippines-
relations-china-161107101018957.html

5. China and Southeast Asia: Global Changes and Regional

Challenges https://books.google.be/books?id=ZUGN8zCUm-
AC&pg=PA131&lpg=PA131&dq=china+and+malaysia+time+south+eas
t+asia&source=bl&ots=gcO4aztzBO&sig=9nvXyQdM-
Bnx4TlXLaBm822zBV8&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjT-
4vgt4TUAhWRalAKHRbkAb4Q6AEIUDAI#v=onepage&q=china%20and
%20malaysia%20time%20south%20east%20asia&f=false
Title: Lessons Learnt From The Swedish 6
Hour Work Day Experiment And Its
Applications In Worn-Out Singapore
by: Ooi Wei Jin

Sweden has been experimenting with six-hour days, with workers

getting the chance to work fewer hours on full pay, but now the most
high-profile two-year trial has ended. Singaporeans have long been
arguing for shorter work days and a better work-life balance. Through
this article, I will explore the merits and demerits of this 2 year long
experiment and see how the lessons learn with Sweden can be applied
to Singapore.

Designed to measure well-being in a sector that's struggling to recruit

enough staff to care for the country's ageing population, extra nurses
were brought in to cover the lost hours. The project's independent
researchers were also paid to study employees at a similar care home
who continued to work regular days. During the first 18 months of the
trial the nurses working shorter hours logged less sick leave, reported
better perceived health and boosted their productivity by organising
85% more activities for their patients, from nature walks to sing-a-
longs.

However, the project also faced tough criticism from those concerned
that the costs outweighed the benefits. Centre-right opponents filed a
motion calling on Gothenburg City Council to wrap it up prematurely
last May, arguing it was unfair to continue investing taxpayers' money
in a pilot that was not economically sustainable. Saved from the axe at
the eleventh hour, the trial managed to stay within budget, but still cost
the city about 12 million kronor (1.1m; $1.3m).
Critics of the program argue that it was too expensive to run the
program for the entire time agree that it has had its fair share of
success. Extra jobs were created for 17 nurses in the city, sick pay
costs were reduced and this did fuel global debate over work culture
and brought more attention to the way many workers were unfairly
dealt extensive work hours.

While work-life balance is already championed across the political

spectrum in Sweden, the chances of the Nordic country trimming back
its standard 40-hour week remain slim. On a national level, the Left
Party is the only parliamentary party in favour of shortening basic
working hours, backed by just 6% of voters in Sweden's last general
election. Nevertheless, a cluster of other Swedish municipalities are
following in Gothenburg's footsteps, with locally funded trials targeting
other groups of employees with high levels of illness and burnout,
including social workers and hospital nurses.

Cleaners at Skelleftea Hospital will begin an 18-month project next

month. There's also been an increase in pilots in the private sector,
with advertising, consulting, telecoms and technology firms among
those testing the concept. Yet while some have also reported that staff
appear calmer or are less likely to phone in sick, others have swiftly
abandoned the idea.
Opponents

Critics argue that the 6 hour work week is not feasible in the
entrepreneurial world. Every individual in a start up plays a crucial role
and time taken off by one employee, needless to say the all employees
in the organisation, will definitely impede the start ups progress. Also,
many new business are sustained by the co-founders own money, a
process endearingly known as bootstrapping and any time taken off
from work essentially translates into money taken directly out of the
cofounders pockets. This further emphasises the impracticality of the 6
hour work week in the world of an entrepreneur.

This point is shared by Dr Aram Seddigh, who recently completed his

doctorate at Stockholm University's Stress Research Institute and is
among a growing body of academics focusing on the nation's shifting
work patterns. "I think the six-hour work day would be most effective in
organisations - such as hospitals - where you work for six hours and
then you just leave [the workplace] and go home.It might be less
effective for organisations where the borders between work and private
life are not so clear," he suggests. "This kind of solution might even
increase stress levels given that employees might try to fit all the work
that they have been doing in eight hours into six - or if they're office
workers they might take the work home."

Proponents

Back in Gothenburg, Bengt Lorentzon, the lead researcher for the

Svartedalen care home project, argues that the concept of six-hour
days also jars with the strong culture of flexible working promoted by
many Swedish businesses. "A lot of offices are already working almost
like consultancies.
There's no need for managers to have all their workers in the office at
the same time, they just want to get the results and people have to
deliver," he says. "Compare that to the assistant nurses - they can't
just leave work to go to the dentist or to the doctors or the
hairdressers. So I don't think people should start with the question of
whether or not to have reduced hours. First, it should be: what can we
do to make the working environment better? And maybe different
things can be better for different groups. It could be to do with working
hours and working times, but it could be a lot of other things as well."

Verdict

I believe that all startups, regardless of where they are located, face
the same problems and hence wholeheartedly agree with the points
made by the opponents of the reduced work hour program. On the
other hand, not all large organisations can benefit from reduced work
hours. It only works if every individual within an organisation
understands that the main point of going to work is to complete an
assigned task to move the organisation forward. However, Singapore
is far from there yet. From banks to the Singapore Armed Forces,
employees are taught to put up a front in order to prove that they are
pulling their fair share of weight. Many employees stay a little longer
than expected to prevent other employees from believing that they are
doing subpar work even though they have dont top notch work in
excellent time. Hence, I believe that while there are merits to the
program Singapore is not yet prepared to undertake an initiative that is
as revolutionary.
references

1. Swedens six-hour working day is too expensive and could be

scrapped
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/sweden-six-hour-
working-day-too-expensive-scrapped-experiment-cothenburg-pilot-
scheme-a7508581.html

2. Employers in Sweden introduce six-hour work day

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-introduces-
six-hour-work-day-a6674646.html

3. Swedish Six-Hour Workday Runs Into Trouble: Its Too Costly

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/swedish-six-
hour-workday-trial-runs-into-trouble-too-expensive

4. Sweden sees benefits of six-hour working day in trial for care

workers https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/04/sweden-
sees-benefits-six-hour-working-day-trial-care-workers

5. Ignore the headlines: a six-hour working day is the way forward

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/06/ignore-
headlines-six-hour-working-day-swedish

6. Sweden tested out a 6-hour workday and it mostly worked

http://uk.businessinsider.com/swedens-short-workdays-boosted-
happiness-too-expensive-2017-1?r=US&IR=T