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data intelligence, premium media assets, global logistics network and 3m avg turnover (USDm) 1,523.1
leading integrated financial services hub. Maintain SOTP TP of USD167. Free float (%) 99.1
Issued shares (m) 2,495
Cloud computing: from IT to DT Market capitalisation USD347.9B
While Aliyun is leading the China IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service) market USD347.9B
with 40.7% share and equivalent to next 7 largest Chinese players Major shareholders:
Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd. (Investment Ma 2.2%
combined and 4th largest cloud revenues in the world, it is much more Baillie Gifford & Co. 1.8%
than an infrastructure provider. Aliyun is the brain behind Alibabas Capital Research & Management Co. (Globa 1.4%
Databank and Uni-marketing, which are the core drivers of the
China
Price Performance
companys impressive marketing service revenue growth. We believe
Alibaba can continue to be a dominant cloud provider in Asia, and one of 150 170
140 160
the top players globally as well.
130 150
years, and demand for online entertainment can only continue to rise. 90 110
80 100
BABAs eCommerce platforms are already capturing their shopping needs,
70 90
but premium media assets will allow Alibaba to understand how to look 60 80
at consumers from the entertainment angle. At BABA, each unique user 50 70
Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17
has his/her actions on each platform recorded under one identity.
THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY KIM ENG SECURITIES (HK) LTD
SEE PAGE 14 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Alibaba Group
Alibaba's senior management team has shared with investors what they
see in each growing business, and where the synergies will come from in
the long run. The underlying theme is data -- Jack Ma calls this the most
important resource today, and similar to electricity centuries ago. They
are spending their efforts to gather data from all ends and through that to
understand consumption behaviour in China.
Online Gateway to
Data
entertainment Delivery and online finance
synergy Data analytics
behavior and fulfilment; global and payment;
with EC and intelligence
enable media expansion entry point to
business
assets online shopping
874k paying 500m MAU 46m packages per 520m MAU
Metrics
customers (Global) day (Alipay)
8 consecutive Triple digit
quarters of triple growth in Youku Rural coverage Offline payment
Growth
digit revenue subscription 90%+ YoY up 7x
growth members
Source: Company, Maybank Kim Eng
Source: Company
Many investors could not fathom how Alibaba established the lead, given
that its competitors, Baidu (BIDU US, Not Covered), Tencent (700 HK, Not
Covered) and even Amazon (AMZN US, Not Covered), have the same
amount of resources over the same period. The answer is simple: Alibaba
Clouds largest customer is Alibaba itself the largest ecommerce
platform in the world with 450m+ buyers. The amount of calculations
required, especially for Double 11, forces Alibaba to push its limits.
Without the right training ground, it is difficult to grow as a platform in
this space. Alibaba Cloud processed 175k orders per second at its peak in
Double 11 last year. In comparison, there is no such challenge for US
companies to solve; not even Black Friday is close to the same scale.
Much of the focus in the past is on its IaaS capabilities, in which Alibaba is
still the sole leader in this market. Its revenue size in this segment is
equivalent to next 7 largest players combined. However, Alibaba Cloud is
much more than providing infrastructure and hardware to companies in
China and it is easy to misunderstand its vision. The company is already
a strong force in the overall public cloud segment, a market that is
growing at 17% CAGR in China and ahead of global market growth.
Fig 3: Alibaba leads the China IaaS market with revenue size Fig 4: Chinas public cloud market growing at 17% CAGR,
equivalent to next 7 players combined ahead of global market growth
Series3
(USD b)
Alibaba Cloud Global Public Cloud ex China (LHS)
500 China Public Cloud % YoY (RHS) 30%
China Telecom 436
18.6%
Tencent 400
17% CAGR 381 25%
3.8% 331
40.7% Kingsoft 286 20%
300 245
4.6%
Ucloud 209 15%
179
200
5.0% Microsoft 10%
China Unicom 100
5.5% 5%
7.3% 8.5%
AWS
0 9 11 14 16 19 21 25 0%
6.0%
2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
Source: IDC Source: Gartner
Cloud computing is not just about reducing cost, but it is the sophisticated
computing power that adds real value to businesses. Alibabas advanced
technology allows companies to tap into the world of data intelligence,
ranging from data processing, big data analysis, voice/image recognition
to machine learning. Many enterprises do not have such technology to
utilize, but through Alibaba Cloud, this adds new meaning to their years of
data. These enterprises do not have to heavily expand their IT
expenditure either, as traditional IT cost has already peaked for these
companies. They can simply spend the additional budget each year on
cloud services. Enterprises are showing their appreciation; over 1/3 of
Chinas top 500 companies are already on Alibaba Cloud.
Fig 5: More than data storage; into the world of data intelligence
Fig 6: Focusing on synergies and value creation between the 500m MAU of
entertainment and eCommerce businesses
Source: Company
June 12, 2017 4
Alibaba Group
Source: Company
We believe that Cainiao is more than a logistics unit only serving Alibabas
needs. Similar to cloud computing, Cainiaos success means Alibaba has
solved the logistics problem for China, and the company can use its
expertise to help other small and medium sized logistics companies to
grow. 60%+ of logistics companies are not fully digitalized in China, while
30-40% logistics vehicles are vacant due to poor forecasting and planning.
With Cainiaos data intelligence, it can fully utilize these existing
resources without much additional cost in the long run.
Source: Company
Fig 9: More than just a payment platform: 80% users are using more than 1 service
Source: Company
Alipay, the companys payment unit, now has 520m annual active users,
more than double of Paypals 203m active accounts. It was a key
infrastructure in Alibabas early success as an eCommerce platform, but
today it is much greater than a transaction service unit:
Fig 10: 7x more offline payment transactions Fig 11: Growing user engagement; DAU up 54% YoY
6. Valuation
Our price target of USD167 is based on a sum of the part analysis. We used
a DCF valuation methodology for the core eCommerce business, as we
believe DCF is the best methodology for capturing the long-term value of
the platform. We are using a WACC of 8.8%, a cost of equity of 10.1%, and
a terminal growth rate of 3%. We also added the NAV (Net Asset Value) of
the associates at the initial investment value. There is more upside if
some or all of these associates equity values rise in the future.
30% 1.5%
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E
Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng
mkim@maybank-keusa.com
DuPont analysis
Net profit margin (%) 31.9 70.5 26.0 26.8 28.6
Revenue/Assets (x) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Assets/Equity (x) 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4
ROAE (%) 26.2 39.2 16.7 19.2 20.5
ROAA (%) 19.1 13.8 14.4 17.2 18.4
Research Offices
REGIONAL HONG KONG / CHINA INDONESIA VIETNAM
Sadiq CURRIMBHOY Howard WONG Head of Research Isnaputra ISKANDAR Head of Research LE Hong Lien, ACCA
Regional Head, Research & Economics (852) 2268 0648 (62) 21 8066 8680 Head of Institutional Research
(65) 6231 5836 sadiq@maybank-ke.com.sg howardwong@kimeng.com.hk isnaputra.iskandar@maybank-ke.co.id (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8181
Strategy Strategy Metals & Mining Cement lien.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
WONG Chew Hann, CA Oil & Gas - Regional Strategy Consumer Diversified
Regional Head of Institutional Research Rahmi MARINA
(603) 2297 8686 wchewh@maybank-ib.com Benjamin HO (62) 21 8066 8689 THAI Quang Trung, CFA,
(852) 2268 0632 benjaminho@kimeng.com.hk rahmi.marina@maybank-ke.co.id Deputy Head, Institutional Research
ONG Seng Yeow Consumer & Auto Banking & Finance (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8180
Regional Head of Retail Research trung.thai@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(65) 6231 5839 Christopher WONG Aurellia SETIABUDI Real Estate Construction Materials
ongsengyeow@maybank-ke.com.sg (852)2268 0652 christopherwong@kimeng.com.hk (62) 21 8066 8691
HK & China Properties aurellia.setiabudi@maybank-ke.co.id LE Nguyen Nhat Chuyen
TAN Sin Mui Property (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8082
Director of Research Jacqueline KO, CFA
chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(65) 6231 5849 sinmui@kimeng.com.hk (852) 2268 0633 jacquelineko@kimeng.com.hk Pandu ANUGRAH
Oil & Gas
Consumer Staples & Durables (62) 21 8066 8688
ECONOMICS pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Ka Leong LO, CFA NGUYEN Thach Lam
Infra Construction Transport Telcos
(852) 2268 0630 kllo@kimeng.com.hk (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8085
Suhaimi ILIAS thachlam.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Chief Economist Consumer Discretionary & Auto Janni ASMAN
(62) 21 8066 8687 Utilities
Malaysia | Philippines Mitchell KIM
(603) 2297 8682 suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com janni.asman@maybank-ke.co.id
(852) 2268 0634 mitchellkim@kimeng.com.hk Cigarette Healthcare Retail NGUYEN Thi Ngan Tuyen,
CHUA Hak Bin Internet & Telcos Head of Retail Research
Regional Thematic Macroeconomist Adhi TASMIN (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8081
(65) 6231 5830 chuahb@maybank-ke.com.sg Ning MA, CFA (62) 21 8066 8694 tuyen.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(852) 2268 0672 ningma@kimeng.com.hk adhi.tasmin@maybank-ke.co.id Food & Beverage Oil & Gas Banking
LEE Ju Ye Insurance
Singapore Plantations
TRUONG Quang Binh,
(65) 6231 5844 leejuye@maybank-ke.com.sg Ricky NG, CFA Deputy Head, Retail Research
PHILIPPINES
Tim LEELAHAPHAN (852) 2268 0689 rickyng@kimeng.com.hk (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8087
Thailand Regional Renewables Lovell SARREAL binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1420 HK & China Properties (63) 2 849 8841 Rubber Plantation Tyres and Tubes
tim.l@maybank-ke.co.th lovell_sarreal@maybank-atrke.com Oil & Gas
Sonija LI, CFA, FRM Consumer Media Cement
Saktiandi SUPAAT (852) 2268 0641 sonijali@kimeng.com.hk
Head, FX Research TRINH Thi Ngoc Diep
Gaming Rommel RODRIGO (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8208
(65) 6320 1379 saktiandi@maybank.com.sg (63) 2 849 8839
Stefan CHANG, CFA diep.trinh@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
rommel_rodrigo@maybank-atrke.com Technology Utilities Construction
STRATEGY (852) 2268 0675 stefanchang@kimeng.com.hk Conglomerates Property Gaming
Technology Regional Ports/ Logistics
Sadiq CURRIMBHOY NGUYEN Thi Sony Tra Mi
Tony Ren, MBA, CFA (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8084
Global Strategist Katherine TAN
(852) 2268 0640 tonyren@kimeng.com.hk mi.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(65) 6231 5836 sadiq@maybank-ke.com.sg (63) 2 849 8843 Port Operation Pharmaceutical
Healthcare & Pharmaceutical kat_tan@maybank-atrke.com
Willie CHAN Food & Beverage
Banks Construction
Hong Kong / Regional INDIA
NGUYEN Thanh Lam
(852) 2268 0631 williechan@kimeng.com.hk Jigar SHAH Head of Research THAILAND (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8086
(91) 22 6623 2632 jigar@maybank-ke.co.in Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research thanhlam.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
MALAYSIA Technical Analysis
Strategy Oil & Gas Automobile Cement Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399
WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research Maria.L@maybank-ke.co.th
(603) 2297 8686 wchewh@maybank-ib.com Vishal MODI Strategy Consumer Materials Ind. Estates
Strategy (91) 22 6623 2607 vishal@maybank-ke.co.in
Banking & Financials Sittichai DUANGRATTANACHAYA
Desmond CHNG, ACA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393
(603) 2297 8680 Sittichai.D@maybank-ke.co.th
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com Neerav DALAL
(91) 22 6623 2606 neerav@maybank-ke.co.in Services Sector Transport
Banking & Finance
Software Technology Telcos Yupapan POLPORNPRASERT
LIAW Thong Jung
(603) 2297 8688 tjliaw@maybank-ib.com (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395
Vishal PERIWAL yupapan.p@maybank-ke.co.th
Oil & Gas Services- Regional
(91) 22 6623 2605 vishalperiwa@maybank-ke.co.in Oil & Gas
ONG Chee Ting, CA Infrastructure
(603) 2297 8678 ct.ong@maybank-ib.com Tanawat RUENBANTERNG
Plantations - Regional SINGAPORE (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394
Mohshin AZIZ Tanawat.R@maybank-ke.co.th
(603) 2297 8692 mohshin.aziz@maybank-ib.com Neel SINHA Head of Research Banks & Diversified Financials
Aviation - Regional Petrochem (65) 6231 5838 neelsinha@maybank-ke.com.sg
Strategy Vorapoj HONGPINYO
YIN Shao Yang, CPA SMID Caps Regional (66) 2658 6300 ext 1392
(603) 2297 8916 samuel.y@maybank-ib.com Vorapoj.h@maybank-ke.co.th
Gaming Regional Media Gregory YAP
(65) 6231 5848 gyap@maybank-ke.com.sg Real Estate & Contractors
TAN Chi Wei, CFA SMID Caps
(603) 2297 8690 chiwei.t@maybank-ib.com Technology & Manufacturing Telcos Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Retail Research
Power Telcos (66) 2658 6300 ext 5090
CHUA Su Tye Sukit.u@maybank-ke.co.th
WONG Wei Sum, CFA (65) 6231 5842 chuasutye@maybank-ke.com.sg
(603) 2297 8679 weisum@maybank-ib.com REITs Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT
Property (66) 2658 6300 ext 1470
LEE Yen Ling Derrick HENG, CFA Surachai.p@maybank-ke.co.th
(603) 2297 8691 lee.yl@maybank-ib.com (65) 6231 5843 derrickheng@maybank-ke.com.sg Auto Conmat Contractor Steel
Building Materials Glove Ports Shipping Transport Property REITs (Office)
Suttatip PEERASUB
Ivan YAP John CHEONG, CFA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1430
(603) 2297 8612 ivan.yap@maybank-ib.com (65) 6231 5845 johncheong@maybank-ke.com.sg suttatip.p@maybank-ke.co.th
Automotive Semiconductor Technology Small & Mid Caps Healthcare Media Commerce
Kevin WONG NG Li Hiang
(603) 2082 6824 kevin.wong@maybank-ib.com Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI
(65) 6231 5840 nglihiang@maybank-ke.com.sg (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400
REITs Consumer Discretionary Banks sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
LIEW Wei Han Energy Petrochem
(603) 2297 8676 weihan.l@maybank-ib.com
Consumer Staples Termporn TANTIVIVAT
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1520
TEE Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research
termporn.t@maybank-ke.co.th
(603) 2082 6858 szechiah.t@maybank-ib.com
Property
Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah, MSTA, CFTe
(603) 2297 8694 Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG
nikmohdihsan.ra@maybank-ib.com (66) 2658 6300 ext 1404
Chartist jaroonpan.w@maybank-ke.co.th
Transportation Small cap
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DISCLOSURES
Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further
act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment
banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies.
Singapore: As of 12 June 2017, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the
research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected
parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.
Hong Kong: As of 12 June 2017, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
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associate / relative does not hold any financial interest or any actual or beneficial ownership in any shares or having any conflict of interest in the subject
companies except as otherwise disclosed in the research report.
In the past twelve months KESI and authoring analyst or their associate did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the subject companies or
third party in connection with the research report on any account what so ever except as otherwise disclosed in the research report.
MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market
in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or
investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the
companies covered in this report.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part
of the research analysts compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
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14 Dec 29 Jan 2 Mar 6 May 12 Aug 26 Sep 3 Nov 25 Jan 19 May 9 Jun
Buy : $109.0 Buy : $110.0 Buy : $104.0 Buy : $103.0 Buy : $110.0 Buy : $130.0 Buy : $129.0 Buy : $134.0 Buy : $150.0 Buy : $167.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17
Alibaba Group
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system
BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
HOLD Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
SELL Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only
applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment
ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
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Tel: (603) 2717 5166 Tel: (66)2 658 6820
Indonesia London
Harianto Liong Scott Kinnear-Nock
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Vietnam Philippines
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Tel: (84)-8-44-555-888 x8080 Tel: (63) 2 848-5288
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