METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)

Published online in Wiley InterScience
(www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/met.40

Review
Predicting snow density using meteorological data
Vivian Melysund,a,b *Bernt Leira,c Karl V. Hisethb and Kim Robert Lisa,d
a SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, PO Box 124, Blindern, NO-0314 Oslo, Norway
b Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Department of Structural Engineering, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
c NTNU, Department of Marine Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
d NTNU, Department of Civil and Transport Engineering, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a simple method for predicting snow density by use of weather data. Six hundred and
eight snow density (bulk weight density) measurements from the period 19671986 are used in a multiple regression
analysis. The measurements are performed at 105 sites in the As area situated in Akershus County in southeast Norway.
The area has a relatively stable winter climate. Weather data from an observing station with three registrations a day are
used in the analyses. The distance between the measurement sites and the meteorological station varied between 0.6 and
14 km. A clear correlation is found between the observed climate and the measured snow density. A multiple regression
equation is developed with a coefficient of determination equal to 70% and a standard deviation equal to 24 kgm3 . Snow
density values suggested in the Norwegian code NS 3491-3 is in most cases overestimated. Expressions given in an annex
to the international regulations for snow loading on roofs (ISO 4355) are less applicable to prescribing snow density
for climate studied in this investigation. Still, they can be used as simple and rough estimates. Copyright 2007 Royal
Meteorological Society

KEY WORDS buildings; density measurements; Norway; meteorological data; snow; snow loads; structural design
Received 26 October 2006; Revised 31 August 2007; Accepted 26 September 2007

1. Introduction combination with more advanced calculation methods,

1.1. Principal objectives and scope
The principal objective of the current paper is to describe
a methodology for the prediction of snow density (bulk
weight density) by means of weather data. In Norway, the
snow depth is measured at 540 meteorological stations
during winter, typically by the use of a yardstick. The
associated snow load, on the ground, is then calculated by
means of a simple assumption of snow density (Table I).
Snow loads on ground are used as a basis to estimate
snow loads on roofs, according to the Norwegian code
NS 3491-3 Design of structures - Design actions - Part
3: Snow loads (Standards Norway, 2001). The code
contains the recommended values for snow load on the
ground for all municipalities in the country.
Because of the extreme differences in local climate
and topography, a large variation in snow loads on the
ground can be observed within short distances in Norway.
NS 3491-3 does not take this variability into account.
As a result, many buildings are designed with a doubt-
ful estimation of characteristic snow load on the ground.
Adequate equipment for surveillance of snow depths, in
* Correspondence to: Vivian Melysund, SINTEF Building and Infras-
tructure, PO Box 124, Blindern, NO-0314 Oslo, Norway.
E-mail: vivian.meloysund@sintef.no
should be used to improve the national maps for snow
load on the ground. This will require detailed informa-
tion of snow density depending on geographical loca-
tion and climate during the period of snow accumula-
tion.
Advanced calculation models that have been developed
in geophysics and hydrology can be used to calculate
snow density and the associated loading with a higher
degree of accuracy than the method proposed in this paper
(for instance, multi-layered models; Loth and Graf, 1998;
Xue et al., 2003). The use of advanced models demands
a thorough knowledge of the weather and geophysical
processes in order to calculate realistic time series of
snow loads during the winter season. The objective of
the current study is to develop a method for predict-
ing characteristic snow density based on simple weather
parameters. The method should provide sufficiently accu-
rate results for structural engineering purposes, without
the use of advanced software.
Scenarios for future climate change indicate both
increased winter precipitation and increased temperatures
(McCarthy et al., 2001; Karl and Trenberth, 2003; reg-
clim.met.no; Benestad, 2005). A realistic estimation of
characteristic loads is, therefore, even more important
than before. In addition, predicting snow density by use
of weather data makes it possible to evaluate also the

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

414 V. MELYSUND ET AL.
Table I. Bulk weight density of snow according to EN 1991-1-3
and NS 3491-3 (settled snow is measured several hours or days
after its fall; old snow several weeks or months after its fall).
Type of Bulk weight
snow density (kg m3 )
Fresh 100
Settled 200
Old 250350
Wet 400
effects of climate changes with respect to roof snow loads
in different parts of the country.
The focus on climate has increased the interest in mete-
orological monitoring that should be used for predicting
snow loads. The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy
Directorate (NVE) and the Norwegian Meteorological
Institute, for instance, are developing geographic infor-
mation system (GIS) based snow maps of snow water
equivalent (percentage of normal, millimetres and rank)
for Norway (Engeset et al., 2004). In their calculations,
spatial estimation of temperature and precipitation is used
in combination with observations from the Norwegian
meteorological network. A snow model with 1 1 km2
and one-day resolution is used. Maps are produced daily
and presented to users by web- and GIS-based interfaces.
In addition, an archive of daily grid data from the winter
of 1962 is available (www.met.no).
In the Norwegian code, NS 3491-3, the snow load on
a roof, s (kg m2 ), is defined as:
s = Ce Ct sk (1)
where sk (kg m2 ) is the snow load on the ground,
represents the snow load shape coefficient accounting for
undrifted and drifted snow load arrangements depending
on the roof shape, Ce is the exposure coefficient, which
concerns reduction or increase of snow load as a fraction
of ground snow load due to wind exposure and Ct is
the thermal coefficient defining the reduction of snow
load as a function of heat flux through the roof. An
equivalent expression can be found in ISO 4355 Bases
for design of structures Determination of snow loads
on roofs (International Organization for Standardization,
1998). In NS 3491-3, snow loads on the ground (50-
year return period) are specified for the centres of all 434
municipalities in Norway. Rules are given for increasing
these values depending on the height of the ground above
sea level at a building site compared with that of the
municipal centre. In particular cases, the code allows for
using other reliable sources to assess the ground snow
load, for instance, when the snow load has been measured
near the building site for at least 20 years.
In this paper, snow density and snow depth measure-
ments performed by Professor Halvor Hib at the former
Agricultural University of Norway (now the Norwegian
University of Life Sciences, UMB) during the period
19661986 are used. These measurements have not been
Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society
previously published and were included in his work
related to shape coefficients for roof snow loads (Hib,
1988). The work of Hib supported the changes in
shape coefficients for pitched roofs given in EN 1991-1-1
Eurocode 1 Actions on structures Part 13: General
actions Snow loads (European Committee for Stan-
dardization, 2003), on which the equivalent Norwegian
code NS 3491-3 (Standards Norway, 2001) is based.
1.2. Background
If the temperature during snowfall is well below the freez-
ing point, the snow typically has a rather low density.
Snow falling at higher temperatures usually has a consid-
erably higher density. After a snowfall, metamorphism,
compaction and wind action will increase the density.
The process when water condenses in the cold outer
layer of the snow cover and causes snow crystals to grow
is called temperature gradient metamorphism. Equitem-
perature metamorphism is a result of local differences
in vapour pressure due to crystal geometry and causes
growth of ice bonds by sintering and strong cohesion
between crystals. Gravitation forces compact the snow
cover; i.e. the larger the depth, the higher the compaction.
Strong winds will make snow crystals divide and the
snow cover becomes more densely packed. See Som-
merfeld and LaChapelle (1970); Langham (1981) and
Pomeroy et al. (1998) for further information on these
processes.
The mean density of snow, as given in NS 3491-3 and
EN 1991-1-3 (European Committee for Standardization,
2003), is shown in Table I. The table shows that the time
since snowfall has a major impact on the density. In
addition, the density of wet snow is given.
In an informative annexe to ISO 4355 Bases for design
of structures Determination of snow loads on roofs
(International Organization for Standardization, 1998),
two alternative methods for calculating snow density are
proposed. These are based on formulae from the former
USSR and Japan. In the former USSR the following
expression was used to calculate the density of snow,
(kg m3 ):
= (90 + 130 d)(1.5 + 0.17 T )(1 + 0.1 v)
3
(2)
where d is the snow depth (m), T is the mean temperature
( C) during the period of snow accumulation and is the
average wind velocity (ms1 ) in the same period. Another
formula for the snow density (kg m3 ), which is derived
from empirical investigations in Japan reads:
=A d +B (3)
where d is the snow depth (m). A and B are constants
influenced by the mean temperature of the snow zone
during the accumulation season.
ISO 4355 also describes a relationship between snow
load (50-year return period) and snow depth used in the
USA:
s50 = 1.91(d50 )1.33 (4)
Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)
DOI: 10.1002/met
 PREDICTING SNOW DENSITY USING METEOROLOGICAL DATA 415

where s50 is the snow load (kPa) on the ground and d50 Table II. Mean temperatures, mean wind velocities, total pre-
is the snow depth (m) on the ground, both with return cipitation amounts and maximum snow depths in January in
periods of 50 years. Equation (4) takes into account that the area of As for the measurement period 19671986 and the
the maximum ground snow load does not necessarily reference 30-year period 19611990.
occur on the same day as the maximum ground snow
Year Temperature Wind Precipitation Snow
depth (according to ISO 4355).
( C) velocity (mm) depth
In Pomeroy et al. (1998) recommendations are given (m s1 ) (cm)
with respect to density of new and aged snow. For
fresh snow, the expression developed by Hedstrom and 1968 7.7 1.6 33 63
Pomeroy (1998) is recommended: 1969 3.5 1.7 93 74
1970 8.2 1.3 24 28
s = 67.9 + 51.3eT /2.6 (5) 1971 2.6 1.4 56 3
1972 6.8 1.5 19 18
where T is the temperature ( C). For aged wind-blown 1977 5.0 1.6 70 51
snow covers with snow depths above 60 cm, Pomeroy 1978 2.3 2.0 54 47
et al. (1998) recommend an expression for the density 1980 7.6 1.3 24 34
1981 3.7 1.5 13 11
on the basis of investigations of Shook and Gray (1994)
1982 9.2 1.8 24 56
and Tabler et al. (1990): 1984 5.2 2.6 89 28
20 470 1985 9.6 1.4 41 40
s = 450 + (1 ed/67.3 ) (6) 1986 7.7 2.2 62 48
d 19611990 4.8 49
where s is the mean snow density (kg m3 ) and d is
snow depth (cm). For smaller snow depths, Pomeroy
et al. (1998) report a small covariance between depth and (Table III). No measurement was done in winters with
density (Shook and Gray, 1994). maximum snow loads on ground below approximately
40 kg m2 . Snow density measurements were done by
using a sharp-edged tube with internal cross-section of
2. Measurements 80 cm2 . The snow inside the tube was weighed and the
In the period 19661986, Professor Halvor Hib at density was calculated. Verification tests showed that the
UMB performed depth and density measurements of measurements were accurate within 1% (Hib, 1988).
snow on ground at 105 sites in the area of As (As is Weather observations and measurements are performed
situated in Akershus County in the southeast of Norway). by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute three times a
The distances between the measurement sites and the day [local time 0800, 1300 and 1900 {coordinated univer-
meteorological station in the area vary between 0.6 and sal time (UTC) +1}] at a meteorological station (climate
14 km. The area has a relatively stable winter climate weather station) in As. Air temperatures are measured
(moist mid-latitude climate with cold winters according 2 m above the ground with an accuracy of 0.1 C. In
to the Koppen Climate Classification System). The mean addition, minimum, maximum and mean temperatures
temperatures, mean wind velocities, total precipitation
amounts and maximum snow depths (as registered at the
meteorological station in the area) are given in Table II. Table III. Number of snow density measurements in each
In addition, the table contains monthly mean temperature measurement year.
and maximum precipitation amount for January in the
reference period 19611990. There are large variations Winter No. of
in maximum snow depths, precipitation amounts and season measurements
mean temperatures for winter seasons. Owing to the hilly
19671968 100
topography in the As area, both precipitation amounts and
19681969 115
wind velocities may have large local variations. Large 19691970 150
weather systems from the south-east and the simultaneous 19701971 6
low atmospheric pressure often result in snowfall and 19711972 35
wind in this area. The highest wind velocities are 19761977 70
normally in the north-west direction, but these are seldom 19771978 53
accompanied by snowfall (Nordli, 2000). 19791980 10
The measurements of Hib were carried out at the 19801981 3
time of maximum snow depths. The registrations were 19811982 29
not done at exactly the same time every year; however, 19831984 6
most of the data were usually collected in mid-February 19841985 13
19851986 18
(earliest measurement in week no. 3 and latest in week
Sum 608
no. 12). A total of 608 measurements were carried out

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)
DOI: 10.1002/met
416 V. MELYSUND ET AL.

between the observations are registered at the meteo- more to the total value of the parameters than the climate
rological station. At each observation time, the 10-min during small snowfalls.
mean wind velocity, v, is measured 10 m above the

ground, together with the average wind direction. As vsnow = Psnow vprec (8)
shown in Section 3, the wind velocities (three observa- t


tions a day) are used to calculate mean wind velocities RHsnow = Psnow RH (9)
for the snow cover. Precipitation (mm water equivalent) t
is measured once a day (local time 0800, UTC + 1).
The accuracy of the precipitation measurements (e.g. due where Psnow is the amount of precipitation as snow
to catchment errors) is not evaluated. Relative humid- (in mm water equivalent), t is the age of the snow
ity (RH) and air pressure, p, are measured three times cover (total number of observations) and RH is the
per day. Air pressure was measured with an accuracy of relative air humidity (in %). vprec is the mean wind
0.1 hPa. Snow depth, d, was measured by use of a yard- velocity in the observation period (in m s1 ) when it is
stick once per day (local time 0800, UTC + 1). This is simultaneously snowing. The threshold temperature for
a measure of the accumulated snow depth (not only pre- whether the precipitation falls as rain or snow is set to
cipitation as snow since last measurement). The weather 1.4 C, according to Skaugen (1998).
at the observation time and between observations is also Between snowfalls many climate parameters influence
registered three times per day. The meteorological data the density of the snow. At high wind velocities snow
are obtained from www.met.no particles are drifting: fdrift is defined as the number of
times the wind velocity, v, has exceeded 4 m s1 and the
snow is in such a condition that it may drift:
3. Analyses
fdrift = f (v > 4 m s1 ) (10)
Multiple regression analyses are suitable in order to
predict snow density by use of weather data. The analyses where f is the number, or frequency, of wind velocities,
are based on a function of the following type: v, above the limit (10 min wind velocity recorded three
times per day). The parameter, vmean , represents the mean
y = 0 + 1 x1 + 2 x2 + . . . . + k xk (7) velocity for each snow cover:
where y is the response, in this case snow density. xk are 1

the predictors and k are the regression coefficients. A vmean = v (11)
t t
regression analysis examines the relation of the response
to the predictors. The selected predictors in the analysis where v is the 10 min mean wind velocity (in m s1 ,
are parameters assumed to be of importance for determin- recorded three times per day) and t is the age of the
ing the response. The analysis searches for the combi- snow cover (total number of observations).
nation of predictors xk (including regression coefficients tsun represents the amount of solar energy absorbed by
k ) resulting in a response, y, with a high coefficient the snow cover:
of determination, R 2 . The coefficient of determination

is the proportion of variability in the data set that is tsun = s (1 a) (12)
accounted for by the statistical model. For a good model, t
R 2 should be close to unity. The parameters investigated
as predictors in this study are those expected to be of The parameter s is the daily sun hours, and the albedo,
significance, considering knowledge from the literature a, accounts for the amount of radiation reflected by the
and the authors own experience from earlier investiga- snow cover. The variation of albedo with summation of
tions. The analyses are performed by use of the statistical daily maximum temperatures since the last snowfall is
software program MINITAB. found in Harstveit (1984), referring to U.S. Army Corps
For the parameters representing the frequency, or sum, of Engineers (1956).
of a specific observation, the values reflect the diurnal In order to describe the effects of high air temperatures,
number of observations at the meteorological station. At two parameters are defined. Theat is calculated by summa-
the station in As, there are three observations per day. If rizing the observed temperatures, T , above the freezing
a snow cover has an age, t, of 120, it means that there point in the accumulation period:
have been 120 observations since the snow cover was

established. Hence, the age of the snow cover is 40 days. Theat = T when T > 0 C (13)
t
Two parameters describe the climate during snow-
falls. vsnow is a measure of wind velocities during snow- where T is the observed air temperature (in C, obser-
falls, while RHsnow summarizes the observed relative air vations three times per day). The mean temperature for
humidity for all periods with snowfall. As seen in Equa- each snow cover is represented by Tmean :
tions (8) and (9), vsnow and RHsnow are scaled in order
to account for the amount of precipitation at each snow- 1

Tmean = T (14)
fall. Thus, the climate during large snowfalls contributes t t

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)
DOI: 10.1002/met
 PREDICTING SNOW DENSITY USING METEOROLOGICAL DATA
where T is the observed temperature (in C, observations
three times per day) and t is the age of the snow cover
(total number of observations).
ptot summarizes the atmospheric pressures observed in
the accumulation period of the snow cover:

null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is really true,
ptot = p (15)
t really exist. The smaller the p-value, the smaller is the
where p is the observed atmospheric pressure (in hPa,
observations three times per day). Other parameters
used in the analyses are the observed snow depth d
(in cm) taking into account the effect of compaction,
the parameter t which is the age of the snow cover
(accounting for the effects of metamorphism) and Rp
summarizing the total amount of precipitation as rain (in
mm) experienced by the snow cover:

of determination (R 2 ). The coefficient of determination
Rp = Prain (16)
t
The snow density is finally expected to be a function
of:
= f (X) where X = (d fdrift ptot vmean vsnow
Rp RHsnow t tsun Theat Tmean ) (17)
4. Results
Multiple regression analyses are performed with the
parameters in Equation (17). The standard error (SE ), t-
value (T ) and p-value (P ) of each regression coefficient
are calculated and used to exclude the least significant
parameters. The standard error SE is defined as:
 depth d (in centimetres) is an important parameter.
SE = (X X)1 s 2 (18)
where s is the estimated standard deviation of the error
term in the regression model and X is the matrix of
predictors.
The t-value (T ) is defined as:
k The parameters in the regression model interact, and
T = (19)
SE
The t-value for a predictor can be used to test whether
the response is accurately predicted. The larger the
absolute value of the t-value, the more likely it is that
the predictor is significant.
If the model is overfitted, i.e. too many predictors
are included in the analysis in relation to the number
of observations, a too high coefficient of determination,
R 2 , can be achieved. A model with high R 2 may not be
useful if there are no significant effects present. One way
to determine whether the observed relationship between
the response and a specific predictor is significant is
to test the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis (H0 )
is explicitly formulated here as follows: for a specific
Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society
417
parameter, xk , there is no influence on the response, y,
(i.e. the coefficient k is equal to zero).
If the p-value P is lower than the -level, the associ-
ation between the response and predictor is statistically
significant. The -level is the probability of rejecting the
i.e. finding a significant association when one does not
probability for making a mistake by rejecting the null
hypothesis. If the p-value is higher than the -level, the
predictor may be excluded. A commonly used -level is
0.05 (corresponding to 95% confidence level).
Evident correlation is found between the observed
climate and the measured snow density. Equation (20)
is the result of the regression analysis with the six
most significant parameters, i.e. the combination of six
parameters from Equation (17) with highest coefficient
is 70% and the standard deviation is 24 kg m3 .
= 230 + 0.0167RHsnow + 2.23fdrift 1.84d
4.66 104 ptot + 2.4tsun 1.89Rp (20)
where is the snow density in kg m3 . The snow density
is an average for the whole snow layer. RHsnow (sum
of relative air humidity in percentage, see Equation (9))
describes the climate during snowfall. The parameters
ptot (sum of atmospheric pressure for the snow cover in
hPa, see Equation (15)), fdrift (number of times with wind
velocity above 4 m s1 and simultaneous snow able to
drift, see Equation (10)), tsun (a measure of the amount of
sunlight absorbed by the snow cover, see Equation (12))
and Rp (the amount of rain experienced by the snow cover
in milli metres, see Equation (16)) describe the climate
in the whole accumulation period. In addition, the snow
Measurements with standardized residuals (ratio of
the residuals, ei , to the standard error of estimate, Sy.x )
above an absolute value of 3 are expected to be outliers
(statistical observation that is markedly different in value
from others in the sample). Twelve such outliers have
been eliminated. The SE, t-value and p-value of each
regression coefficient are listed in Table IV.
it is difficult to show the effect of a single parameter
graphically. In Figure 1, the observed values for some
parameters are compared with the calculated values
using Equation (20) (solved with respect of the studied
parameter and where the measured density is set as ).
As can be seen, there is some scatter.
Considering the physical interpretation of Equation
(20), the constant of 230 can be seen as a start (or
initial) density. The predictors of the regression equation
increase or decrease the density depending on the sign of
the regression coefficient. Parameters found to increase
the density are RHsnow , fdrift and tsun . Parameters found
to decrease the density are d, ptot and Rp .
Equation (20) clearly indicates that the snow density
decreases with increasing sum of atmospheric pressure
Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)
DOI: 10.1002/met
418 V. MELYSUND ET AL.

Table IV. Regression coefficients with standard error of coefficient (SE coeff.); t-value, T (estimated coefficient divided on SE
coefficient); and p-value, P (probability of obtaining a test statistic that is at least as extreme as the actual calculated value, if
the null hypothesis is true). P < 0.05 means that the association between the response and predictor is statistically significant.
T = k SE 1 . The larger the absolute value of T , the more likely it is that the predictor, xk , is significant.

Predictor Coefficient Standar t-value p-value Stepwise coeff. of

xk k error SE T P determination R 2 (%)a

Constant 230 5.27 43.62 0.000

RHsnow 0.0167 5.64 104 29.55 0.000 33
fdrift 2.23 0.15 15.22 0.000 40
d 1.84 0.10 18.00 0.000 44
ptot 4.66 104 2.8 105 16.46 0.000 53
tsun 2.40 0.15 16.15 0.000 62
Rp 1.89 0.16 11.62 0.000 70

a Regression analysis where parameters are added one by one. The method adds the predictor that results in largest increase of R 2 .

Relative humidity RH_snow

Observed value (sum, %)

16000

8000

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

Calculated value (all measurements summarized, in %)

Depth d
Observed value (cm)

90

60

30

0 20 40 60 80 100
Calculated value (cm)

Frequency of wind allowing snow drift f_drift

Observed value (no. of occ.)

40

20

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Calculated value (no. of occurences)

Figure 1. Calculated values using the regression model (Equation (20)) versus the observed values. This figure is available in colour online at
www.interscience.wiley.com/ma

ptot . High pressure in the winter season normally means cover with a lower value of RHsnow . These results are
cold weather, and no precipitation while low pressure consequently as expected.
normally means higher temperatures and precipitation. High wind velocities enable the snow to drift. Drift-
The sum of the atmospheric pressures over the whole ing snow gives smaller snow crystals and compaction of
accumulation period provides information on both mean the snow cover, and therefore the snow density increases.
temperatures and precipitation amounts. High tempera- A windswept snow cover is expected to be more densely
tures result in increased snow densities. Large precipita- packed than a less windswept snow cover. There is a ten-
tion amounts lead to compaction of the snow layer and dency towards increasing density with increasing snow-
increases the snow density. drift (fdrift ), as can be seen in Equation (20). Figure 1
A high sum of relative air humidity during snowfalls indicates that there may be a better description of this
(RHsnow ) may also indicate the temperature. A snow effect than a linear relationship, but the physical pro-
cover with a high value of RHsnow has experienced higher cesses are complex and it is hard to find a simple expres-
temperatures (and thereby more wet snow) than a snow sion that could give a better correlation.

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)
DOI: 10.1002/met

One could expect higher average snow densities for
large snow depths, due to compaction. This is also
true when the influence of the snow depth is studied
separately, as can be seen in Figure 2. However, in
Equation (20), where several effects are combined, the
regression coefficient for d has a negative sign, which
means that large snow depths tend to decrease the
density. This tendency can also be seen in Figure 2 for
snow covers that have experienced a certain amount of
temperatures above the freezing point. For large snow
depths, the external climate influences the density to a
lesser degree than smaller snow depths. Only the upper
part of the snow cover is exposed, and for large snow
depths this area constitutes only a small part of the total
snow cover. Thus, the snow depth, d, can be seen as a
corrective term for the other external climate parameters.
The analyses show that the density increases with
increasing amount of solar radiation (tsun ). Solar radiation
supplies energy and consequently increases the temper-
ature in the snow layer, which leads to compaction and
increased snow density. The analyses also show that the
density decreases with increasing amount of precipitation
as rain (Rp ). Snow cover may absorb rain, and the snows
density increases. Repeated rainfalls, on the other hand,
demolish the ice structure and reduce the snow covers
ability to absorb water. As a result, the snow density
decreases.
The authors expected temperature parameters to be
more significant than the predictors in Equation (20). The
values of the parameters RHsnow , ptot , tsun and Rp depend
on the temperatures experienced by the snow cover.
300
Density (kgm-3)
250
200
150
100
20
300
Density (kgm-3)
250
200
150
100
20
Figure 2. Density as a function of snow depth. In the upper part of the figure black circles are measurements with values of Theat below 10, grey
squares are measurements with values of Theat between 10 and 75 while triangles are measurements with values of Theat above 75. This figure
is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ma
Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society
PREDICTING SNOW DENSITY USING METEOROLOGICAL DATA 419
These parameters are better predictors than temperature
parameters alone because they also provide information
on other conditions. ptot , for instance, is a better predictor
than temperature parameters because it correlates with
both temperatures and amount of precipitation.
The weather data are not in a continuous time series
and the measurements do not record all variations in
the climate (hourly data are only available for a small
number of meteorological stations in Norway). Local
adjustments at each measurement site could be necessary
when evaluating precipitation rates and effects of wind.
5. Discussion and further work
Snow depth, mean wind and mean temperature are the
most important parameters in the expressions for snow
density in ISO 4355(Equations (1)(3)). Combinations
of these parameters ( d, 3 T mean and vmean ) are inves-
tigated without achieving sufficient correlation. These
results are not included in this paper. As can be seen in
Table IV, the parameter with highest coefficient of deter-
mination (R 2 ) in a simple regression analysis, is RHsnow
where R 2 equals 33%. If two parameters are combined in
a multiple regression analysis, the combination RHsnow
and fdrift gives the highest coefficient of determination
(40%). In a simple regression analysis, the snow depth,
d, has a coefficient of determination equal to 5%.
According to NS 3491-3, old snow (several weeks or
months after snowfall) has a density between 250 and
350 kg m3 (Table I). Of the measured snow densities
in this investigation, 64% are below 250 kg m3 and
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Depth (cm)
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Depth (cm)
Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)
DOI: 10.1002/met
420 V. MELYSUND ET AL.

350

Density (kg m-3) 300

250 250

200 200

150

100
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Age (days x 3)

Figure 3. Measured densities versus age of snow cover. This figure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ma

40

30
Percent

20

10

0
0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1
Ratio calculated/measured value

Figure 4. Calculated densities using Equation (20) (95% fractile values) divided by measured values (fitted to a loglogistic distribution with
Loc = 0.1791 and Scale = 0.06194). This figure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ma

34% have values below 200 kg m3 (Figure 3). The
recommended values in NS 3491-3 overestimate the snow
density in most cases. The snow covers in the current
analyses have been accumulated gradually. Thus, the
bottom layer of the snow covers can be characterized as
old while the top layer is fresh. The density equation
suggested in NS 3491-3 is too conservative and does not
properly deal with gradually accumulated snow covers.
The calculated snow densities by use of Equation (20)
represent mean values: 95% fractile values are achieved
by increasing the calculated snow densities by two
times the standard deviation of error (2 24 kg m3 ).
Calculated 95% fractile values for the snow densities are
compared with the measured densities in Figure 4. Only
5% of the calculated values are below measured values,
while for 44% of the calculations the ratio of calculated
to measured value exceeds 1.2.
When the calculations are done according to Equa-
tion (2), 26% of the calculated values are below the
measured density values (Figure 5). The ratio of the
calculated to measured value exceeds 1.2 for 39% of
the calculated values. Compared to the analyses results,
Equation (2) is less accurate for prediction of snow den-
sity, regarding the climate studied in this investigation.

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)
DOI: 10.1002/met
 PREDICTING SNOW DENSITY USING METEOROLOGICAL DATA 421

40

30
Percent

20

10

0
0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1
Ratio calculated value/measured value

Figure 5. Calculated values according to Equation (2) divided by measured values (fitted to a loglogistic distribution with Loc = 0.1202 and
Scale = 0.1038). This figure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ma

40

30
Percent

20

10

0
0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1
Ratio calculated value/measured value

Figure 6. Calculated values according to Equation (4) divided by measured values (fitted to a loglogistic distribution with Loc = 0.3535 and
Scale = 0.1078). This figure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ma

This is because Equation (2) underestimates the snow
density in many cases. The equation is nevertheless useful
for simple and rough estimates.
When calculating snow density by use of Equation (4),
almost all (97%) calculated densities are below the mea-
sured values (Figure 6). The equation is less applicable
for an occasional/arbitrary period in a climate as studied
in this investigation. Equation (4) is meant to be used
for snow depths with a 50-year return period. A compar-
ison between measured snow densities and calculations
by use of Equations (2), (4) and (20) is summarized in
Table V.
The density measurements were done within a small
area in Norway and combined with data from one meteo-
rological station. Further work should aim at investigating
the results in view of data from other parts of the country.
Possible measurement uncertainties in conjunction with
the used meteorological station could then be reduced.
The capability of the proposed empirical formula to esti-
mate snow density in different climates would then also
be demonstrated.
The current investigation will be used as input to ongo-
ing studies within the Norwegian research and develop-
ment programme Climate 2000 (Lis et al., 2005). In

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)
DOI: 10.1002/met
422 V. MELYSUND ET AL.
Table V. Comparison of measured snow density and calculated snow density (in kg m3 ) using Equations (2), (4) and (20) (95%
fractile values). Statistical data for the ratio calculated value/measured value.
Density Mean Standard
equation deviation
Equation (2) 1.14 0.21
Equation (4) 0.71 0.14
Equation (20) (new method) 1.21 0.14
Climate 2000, the relationship between snow loads on
roof and wind exposure is subjected to further investi-
gations (Melysund et al., 2006, 2007). The significance
of the magnitude of roof snow load according to total
building costs will also be addressed. Will society profit
from a more detailed prediction of roof snow loads? The
advantage of a built-in safety margin accounting for a
future change in wind exposure and climate will most
likely be beneficial.
In recent years, methods to refine the design process
with respect to snow load have been developed. However,
advanced tools and data processing are required. These
tools are often not available for structural engineers, and
high qualifications within meteorological and geophysical
processes are required. The risk that advanced methods
will be used in an unintended manner is therefore
present. Further work should focus on developing tools
for geographic differentiation of snow loads, including
local topography and climate variations.
6. Conclusions
A clear correlation is found between observed climate and
measured snow density. A multiple regression equation
for prediction of snow density is developed. The results
are promising, with a coefficient of determination equal
to 70% and a standard deviation equal to 24 kg m3
compared to measured values.
The suggested equation has six predictors and one
constant. The most important predictor RHsnow (sum of
relative air humidity when snowing) concerns the climate
during snowfalls. Other important parameters reflect the
climate in the whole accumulation period, such as tsun
(the amount of solar radiation) and fdrift (frequency of
high wind velocity and simultaneous snow which is
able to drift). The parameters RHsnow , fdrift and tsun are
found to increase the density. The parameters d (snow
depth), ptot (sum of atmospheric pressure) and Rp (sum
of precipitation as rain) are found to decrease the density.
The most important parameters in density equations
presented in an informative annexe of ISO 4355 are snow
depth, mean wind and mean temperature. Combinations
of these parameters are investigated without achieving
satisfactory correlation. These results are not included in
this paper.
Snow density values calculated by use of the Nor-
wegian code NS 3491-3 will in most cases be overes-
timated. The expressions in ISO 4355 are less applicable
Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society
No. of occurrences No. of occurrences Figure
below 1.0 (%) above 1.2 (%) no.
26 39 5
97 1 6
5 44 4
to prescribe snow density for a climate as studied in this
investigation. Still, they can be used as simple and rough
estimates.
Acknowledgements
This paper has been written as part of the ongoing
SINTEF research and development programme Climate
2000Building constructions in a more severe climate
(20002007), strategic institute project Impact of cli-
mate change on the built environment. The authors grate-
fully acknowledge all construction industry partners and
the Research Council of Norway. A special thanks to Pro-
fessor emeritus Halvor Hib and Professor Egil Berge
at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences (UMB) for
allowing use of their measurements, and to Dr Hans Olav
Hygen (Norwegian Meteorological Institute) for valuable
comments on the text.
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