Democratic voter crossover for

Donald Trump measured in online

civic engagement platforms
Aleks Mistratov
Jeremy Meadow

May 20, 2017

Outline
2016 Election Post-mortems
Brigades Vote Pledge Data
Crossover Democrats and State Polling Misses
Turnout
Demographics of Crossover Democrats
Summary of Findings
Future Work
 2016 Election Results vs Polling Projections

Trump
overperformed

Clinton
overperformed

Source: FiveThirtyEight + New York Times

Note: only states with >200 Brigade users registered as Democrats have been shaded
Did the 2016 state
polls miss crossover
Democratic voters?
Whats Brigade?
Vote Pledging on Brigade
Visitors pledge for a
presidential candidate
Post-pledge, they create an
account and verify their identity
Voter Verification
Algorithm based on
personal information
Brigade learns additional
public data through
associated voter record
Party Reg (31 states)
Turnout History
Demographics
Key Trend:
Democratic
Crossover
 Democratic Crossover among Brigade users in
states with polling misses
Brigade Crossover Pledge % vs Baseline

More Dem
crossover

Less Dem
crossover

Note: only states with >200 Brigade users registered as Democrats have been shaded
 Democratic Crossover among Brigade users in
states with polling misses
Brigade Crossover Pledge % vs Baseline Election Results vs Polling Projections

Note: only states with >200 Brigade users registered as Democrats have been shaded
 Democratic Crossover among Brigade users in
states with polling misses
Brigade Crossover Pledge % vs Baseline Election Results vs Polling Projections

Note: only states with >200 Brigade users registered as Democrats have been shaded
Trump beat the polls in high crossover states

Correl: 0.85
Adj R2 = 0.70*
p = <0.001

N = 22 states /
25,975 Dems

*when adjusting for income among

Dems
Trump beat the polls in high crossover states

Correl: 0.85
Adj R2 = 0.70*
Pennsylvania p = <0.001

West Virginia N = 22 states /

Nevada 25,975 Dems
North Carolina
California

*when adjusting for income among

Dems
What about
turnout?
Crossover Democrats tend to vote less often
than party-line Democrats.

2016 Hillary 2016 Trump Turnout rate

pledgers pledgers difference*
Turnout in 2012 74.6% 64.3% 10.3%
Turnout in 2014 60.4% 42.5% 17.9%

*2016 Clinton pledgers versus 2016 Trump pledgers

Crossover Democrats tend to vote less often
than party-line Democrats. But in 2016, they
closed the turnout gap.
2016 Hillary 2016 Trump Turnout rate
pledgers pledgers difference*
Turnout in 2012 74.6% 64.3% 10.3%
Turnout in 2014 60.4% 42.5% 17.9%
Turnout in 2016 86.8% 78.9% 7.9%

*2016 Clinton pledgers versus 2016 Trump pledgers

Crossover Democrats tend to vote less often
than party-line Democrats. But in 2016, they
closed the turnout gap.
2016 Hillary 2016 Trump Turnout rate
pledgers pledgers difference*
Turnout in 2012 74.6% 64.3% 10.3%
Turnout in 2014 60.4% 42.5% 17.9%
Turnout in 2016 86.8% 78.9% 7.9%
8 states w/ <5% 92.4% 87.5% 4.9%
projected margin

*2016 Clinton pledgers versus 2016 Trump pledgers

Dem Crossover % was highest among older,
working class voters

+46% among those aged over 35

+45% among those making under 100K
+43% among those without a college degree
Summary
Crossover Democratic voters may partially explain Trumps surprise victory
Vote pledge data for Democrats on Brigade is correlated with states where
Trump beat the pre-election state polls
Crossover Democrats are lower-propensity voters, but their turnout in 2016
was higher than normal
In 2017 and 2018, we can..
Track users pledges through multiple elections
Incorporate users advocacy behavior and ideological priorities
Predict which voters will cross party lines
 Thank you!
aleks@brigade.com
jeremy.meadow@brigade.com
Appendix
2016 Post-mortems: Dem crossover voters
Clinton won Mr. Obamas white-working class supporters by a margin of only 78%
to 18% against Mr. Trump...In the Midwestern battleground states and
Pennsylvania, Mrs. Clinton had an advantage of 76% to 20% among white
working-class Obama voters.
- Nate Cohn, New York Times / Upshot

In 2016, just 45% [of non-college graduates] supported Clinton, a 12-point loss for
the Democrats. In contrast, Trump received 52% of [their] votes, a 10-point gain
for the Republican.
- Lincoln Park Strategies
Summary Output (w/income adjustment)
Summary Output (simple regression)
 Polls versus Votes (raw data)
state 538 Margins NYTimes Results Margin Change state 538 Margins NYTimes Results Margin Change
AZ 2.20% 3.50% 0.013 ME -7.40% -2.90% 0.045
CA -22.90% -30.00% -0.071 NC -0.70% 3.60% 0.043
CO -4.00% -4.90% -0.009 NJ -11.50% -14.00% -0.025
CT -12.70% -13.70% -0.01 NM -5.80% -8.30% -0.025
FL -0.70% 1.20% 0.019 NV -1.20% -2.40% -0.012
IA 2.90% 9.40% 0.065 NY -19.00% -22.50% -0.035
KS 12.50% 20.50% 0.08 OK 26.00% 36.40% 0.104
KY 18.20% 29.80% 0.116 OR -9.20% -11.00% -0.018
LA 16.10% 19.70% 0.036 PA -3.70% 7.00% 0.107
MA -23.40% -27.20% -0.038 RI -14.40% -15.50% -0.011
MD -25.70% -26.40% -0.007 WV 26.50% 41.70% 0.152
Pennsylvania vote by Party ID (exit polls)

2012 2016
 [Targetsmart] Democratic Crossover among
Brigade users in states with polling misses
Brigade Crossover Pledge vs Baseline Election Results vs Polling Projections

Note: only states with >200 Brigade users registered as Democrats have been shaded