Theor Appl Climatol (2017) 127:741751
DOI 10.1007/s00704-015-1661-1
ORIGINAL PAPER
Influence of climate variability on land degradation
(desertification) in the watershed of the upper Paraba River
Telma Lucia Bezerra Alves 1 & Pedro Vieira de Azevedo 2 &
Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos 2
Received: 28 May 2015 / Accepted: 18 October 2015 / Published online: 2 November 2015
# Springer-Verlag Wien 2015
Abstract The study aimed to evaluate the influence of the
rainfall and aridity index variability on the process of land
degradation (desertification) in order to establish the current
degree of increase or decrease in dryness in the watershed of
the upper Paraba River. It included all or part of 18 munici-
palities, distributed in the western and eastern Cariri regions of
Paraba state. The monthly average values of reference evapo-
transpiration according to Penman-Monteith method were ap-
plied in the annual hydrological balance for obtaining the
annual time series of the aridity index for the period from
1950 to 2013. The Mann-Kendall test (MK) was used for
trend identification in the annual time series of rainfall and
aridity index, at a significance level of = 0.05. The slope
of the trends was obtained by Sens method, and the values of
rainfall, aridity index, and statistics MK were spatially
kriging, to generate thematic maps. The results indicate an
increase in rainfall and reduced dryness in the watershed of
the upper Paraba River, conditions that do not contribute to
trigger the process of land degradation (desertification), indi-
cating that the cause of this environmental problem is not
climatic. Thus, it can be suggested that the observed manifes-
* Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos
carlos.santos@ufcg.edu.br
Telma Lucia Bezerra Alves
telmaluciax@hotmail.com
Pedro Vieira de Azevedo
azevedopedrovieira@gmail.com
1
Programa de Ps-Graduao em Recursos Naturais, Universidade
Federal de Campina Grande, Campina Grande, Paraba, Brazil
2
Programa de Ps-Graduao em Recursos Naturais, Unidade
Acadmica de Cincias Atmosfricas, Universidade Federal de
Campina Grande, Campina Grande, Paraba, Brazil
tations of land degradation (desertification) derive much of
human than climatic actions. However, there is a trend of
increasing dryness and reducing rainfall in the central portion
of the watershed, with stronger core in the location of
Camala. The spatial distribution of rainfall and aridity index
shows that minimum values of rainfall coincide with maxi-
mum values of the aridity index. Higher values of rainfall
were observed in the northwestern portion of the watershed,
while the northeast and southeast portions had the lower rain-
fall values, with the strongest core in the locality of
Cabaceiras. The eastern sector of the watershed has high dry-
ness, unlike the western sector, rainier, with minimum values
of dryness. In the western portion of the watershed, the aridity
index was in the range considered semiarid, with moderate
susceptibility to land degradation process. Similarly, in the
eastern portion, the dryness stood in the range considered arid,
with high susceptibility. The cores with more pronounced
dryness correspond to the municipalities of Cabaceiras,
Carabas, and So Joo do Cariri.
1 Introduction
By desertification, it is understood as land degradation in arid,
sub-humid, semiarid, and dry areas resulting from various
factors, especially climatic variations and human activities
(UNCCD 1994). Conti (2011) classifies desertification as nat-
ural (or climatic) and anthropogenic (or ecological). The cli-
matic mode indicators are average temperature rise, increase
in aridity index, increased runoff (torrentiality) and intensifi-
cation of wind erosion, decreased rainfall, and decreasing air
relative humidity. In addition, the climatic desertification can
be established by progressive reduction in rainfall, determined
by natural causes, such as changes in solar activity, change in
sea surface temperature, and geological phenomena.
742
Usually, the aridity index is obtained by processing mete-
orological data such as air temperature, rainfall, and evapo-
transpiration (Nastos et al. 2013). Increased dryness influ-
ences desertification, both indirectly by the greater variability
of rainfall and directly by prolonged droughts (Geist and
Lambin 2004). The effects of increased dryness include in-
creasing the frequency of soil erosion caused by a larger and
more frequent oscillation between warm, dry, cold, and wet
conditions.
Some studies analyzed the trend of the aridity index and
other variables such as rainfall and air temperature for identi-
fying regions with increasing and decreasing trends of the
aridity index (Shaohong et al. 2005; Zhang et al. 2009;
Croitoru et al. 2012; Liu et al. 2013; Somee et al. 2013;
Hrnjak et al. 2013). In southern Portugal, prolonged periods
of dryness conditions reduce the water resources availability
and soil erosion expansion causing damage to vegetation, in-
crease vulnerability to salinization, deplete and degrade the
land, among other phenomena that cause the susceptibility
to desertification (Costa and Soares 2012).
Moreover, Bourque and Hassan (2009) studied the impact
of the vegetation removal in the rainfall patterns, reducing the
exchange of water vapor from the surface to the air through
the air rise and increasing the level of condensation. In this
context, Odorico et al. (2013) explain that there are three main
response mechanisms between vegetation and rainfall: chang-
es in the rainfall recycling, surface energy balance, and dust
emissions in arid landscapes.
The constant climate variability of the Brazilian
Northeast is related, among other factors, to the position
of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the El
NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO), and Sea Surface
Temperature (SST), which are interrelated mechanisms
that cause variability in rainfall and weather. The
monthly distribution and inter-annual rainfall in the
semiarid region of Paraiba State are extremely irregular,
in both time and spatial scales. From these arguments, it
is necessary to conduct studies to assess the relationship
between climate variability and land degradation process
since many of the studies address only the spatial-
temporal distribution and analysis trend of climatic
variables.
Researches that analyze the behavior of rainfall and dry-
ness are internationally used in studies related to the degrada-
tion process of lands/desertification at the regional level
(Conti 2005; Costa and Soares 2012; Nastos et al. 2013),
being less frequent in watershed level. Climate aspects can
intensify the land degradation process (Conti 2011), to the
extent that affect the environment to a water stress, bringing
consequences for fauna and flora and promoting soil erosion.
However, these climatic aspects can be influenced by the new
environmental dynamics (desertification), especially due to
the vegetation removal that can interfere with the components
Costa dos Santos C.A.
of the hydrological cycle. In this sense, there is an urgent need
to monitor two-way interactions between climate and
desertification.
In the Brazilian semiarid region, the watersheds and
their natural resources have been degraded and poorly
prioritized for meeting economic interests. Studies con-
ducted so far (Conti 2005; Brasil 2004; Souza et al.
2004; Almeida-Filho and Carvalho 2010; Souza et al.
2010) have diagnosed areas in the process of desertifi-
cation in the northeast region, particularly in Paraba
State caused by human actions and enhanced by climate
variability. Considering the premise, that climate vari-
ability is striking in the Brazilian semiarid region accen-
tuating the land degradation process, this study aimed to
evaluate the influence of the rainfall and aridity index
variability on the process of land degradation
(desertification) in the watershed of the upper Paraba
River.
2 Materials and methods
2.1 Study area
This study was conducted in the watershed of the upper
Paraba River, limiting to the North with the sub-watershed
of the Tapero River, to the South and the West with the state
of Pernambuco, and to the East with the region of the middle
Paraba River (Fig. 1). The watershed of the upper Paraba
River has an area of approximately 6727.69 km2 and encom-
passes all or part of 18 municipalities (locations) distributed in
the western and eastern areas of Cariri region. The region of
Cariri in Paraba State shows rainfall deficiency, among other
reasons, by locating on the leeward side of the Borborema
Plateau, showing the influence of the distance from ocean
and the relief morphology engaged in the distribution of cli-
mates (Molion and Bernardo 2002; Nascimento and Alves
2008).
Positioned in the equatorial belt, the watershed is subjected
to high incidence of solar radiation with a large number of
hours of sunshine, due to the scarce cloudiness. This condition
determines a warm climate with annual average temperature
around 26 C, little intra-annual variation and spatial distribu-
tion, and high dependence on surface temperature. The eleva-
tion is ranging between 300 and 1100 m above sea level. The
average annual rainfall ranges between 320 and 680 mm, and
the rainy season is concentrated in the period from February to
May.
2.2 Climatic data
Depending on the availability of data for each location, the
average monthly values of rainfall and air temperature of 17
Influence of climate variability on land degradation 743

Fig. 1 Location of the watershed of the upper Paraba River and delimitation of the 18 municipalities, state of Paraba, northeastern Brazil

municipalities were used for the period 19502013. In the surrounding stations were used to determine the rainfall of Y
study area, only the locations of Monteiro and So Joo station as:
do Cariri have weather stations monitored by the

1 NY NY NY
National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). So, for these PY PA PB PC 1
locations, time series data of rainfall, air temperature 3 NA NB NC
(maximum, mean, and minimum), relative humidity,
where PY is the monthly rainfall to be obtained, NY the normal
dew point temperature, water vapor pressure, wind
annual rainfall of the season failed, N(A, B, and C) the annual
speed, atmospheric pressure, solar radiation, and sun-
rainfall from surrounding stations, and P(A, B, and C) the month-
shine duration were obtained from the INMET. For the
ly rainfall from surrounding stations.
other locations, the rainfall data were collected from hy-
For the locations of Monteiro and So Joo do Cariri,
drological station networks which are available from the
the daily reference evapotranspiration was obtained by
Executive Agency for Water Management of Parabas
the Penman-Monteith (FAO) method (Allen et al. 1998)
state (AESA). The total percentage of missing rainfall
as follows:
data was 2.4 %, ranging from 0.0 to 6.5 % among sta-


tions. The gaps in rainfall datasets were filled by region- 900 U 2
0:408 RnG es ea
al weighting method, based on the rainfall records of T 237
three climatically homogeneous stations located around EToPM 2
1 0:34 U 2
the locality with missing data (Oliveira et al. 2010).
If Y is the station with missing data and A, B, and C are the where ETo P M is the reference evapotranspiration
surrounding stations, the weighted average record at the three (mm day1), Rn the net radiation (MJ m2 day1), G
744 Costa dos Santos C.A.

the soil heat flux density (MJ m2 day1), T the mean 2.3 Aridity index
daily air temperature at 2 m height (C), U2 the wind
speed at 2 m height (m s1), es the saturation vapor The aridity index served as a basis for obtaining the
pressure (kPa), ea the actual vapor pressure (kPa), es - level of susceptibility to land degradation/desertification
ea. the saturation vapor pressure deficit (kPa), the (Table 1). For a soil maximum storage water depth
slope of vapor pressure curve (kPa C1), and the (MSD = 50 mm), the aridity index (Ia) was obtained
psychometric constant (kPa C1). The daily values of as (Pereira 2005):
 
EToPM were accumulated to obtain the monthly values. DA
I a 100 ETo (6).where DA is the annual water deficit
A
For all locations, the monthly potential (reference) evapo-
transpiration was calculated by the Thornthwaite method ac- (mm) and EToA the annual reference evapotranspiration
cording to Pereira (2005): (mm).

!a 2.4 Mann-Kendall test

10  T j
EToT j 0:533  F j 3
I The Mann-Kendall is a nonparametric test, which allows
missing data, reporting of database levels, and gross errors
and outliers do not affect it. Additionally, it provides informa-
where Fj is a correction factor that varies with latitude and I
tion regarding the direction and significance of trends and tests
the annual thermal index obtained as the sum of 12 monthly
the null hypothesis of Brandomness^ or Bno trend^ and need
thermal indices (ij) given by:
not require prior knowledge of the distribution. Therefore, the
0 11:514 trends in the rainfall and aridity index time series were ana-
Tj
ij @ A 4 lyzed by the Mann-Kendall test (Back 2001; Croitoru et al.
5 2012; Tabari et al. 2012; Ahani et al. 2013; Croitoru et al.
2013a; Somee et al. 2013; Zarch et al. 2015). The presence
where T j is the monthly average air temperature in degree of a statistically significant trend in the time series was
Celsius and a = 6.7510 7 I 3 + 7.7110 5 I 2 + assessed using the value of Z statistics to test the null hypoth-
0.01791I + 0.492. The monthly average air temperature esis that there is no trend. Positive values of Z indicate rising
(maximum, mean, and minimum) for each location were esti- while negative indicate decreasing trends. To test any increas-
mated by multiple linear regression model, according to local ing or decreasing trend for a significant level, reject the null
geographical coordinates (latitude, longitude, and altitude) hypothesis if the absolute value of Z is greater than Z1-/2,
and anomalies of sea surface temperatures (ASST), as obtained from the normal distribution table. In this work,
(Cavalcanti et al. 2006): = 0.05 significance level was applied. Thus, if the absolute
value of Z is greater than 1.96, reject the null hypothesis at 5 %
T ij a0 a1 a2 a3 h a4 2 a5 2 a6 h2 and the averages are significantly different.
a7 a8 h a9 h ATSMij 5
2.5 Sens method
where a0a9 are the regression coefficients, is the longi-
tude, latitude, and h the elevation in meters. The indices i The Sens method estimates value and confidence interval of
and j indicate the month and year, respectively, for which we trend slope. It allows missing data and makes no assumptions
are calculating the air temperature (Tij). Thus, the signal from about the distribution of data, and errors and raw data discrep-
the anomalies of sea surface temperature (ASSTij) assumes ancies do not affect it. Thus, the trend slope (Q) in the rainfall
positive and negative values according to the ocean SST pat- and aridity index time series was calculated by Sens method
tern behavior. as the variation in measurement due to time variation
For locations of Monteiro and So Joo do Cariri, the av-
erage monthly reference evapotranspiration obtained by
Penman-Monteith method (EToPM) overestimated that obtain- Table 1 Level of
ed by Thornthwaite method (EToT) with the ratio (EToPM/ susceptibility to land Aridity index (Ia) Land susceptibility
EToT) varying monthly as follows: Jan = 1.34, Feb = 1.41, degradation/
desertification, due to the Ia > 0.85 Very high
Mar = 1.47, Apr = 1.27, May = 1.17, Jun = 1.14, Jul = 1.25,
aridity index for the 0.61 < Ia 0.85 High
Aug = 1.38, Sep = 1.53, Oct = 1.50, Nov = 1.55, and watershed of the upper 0.31 < Ia 0.60 Moderate
Dec = 1.34. These coefficients were used to correct the month- Paraba River Ia < 0.30 Low
ly reference evapotranspiration estimated by Thornthwaite
method for all locations. Source: Almeida and Marinho (2014)
Influence of climate variability on land degradation 745

A B

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of rainfall (a) and aridity index (b) in the watershed of the upper Paraba River for the period (19502013)

(Croitoru et al. 2013b; Tabari et al. 2012; Somee et al. 2013) The specific confidence interval (C) was determined by:
as: p
C Z 1=2  V S 9
xi0 xi
Q 7
i0 i While the lower (M1) and higher (M2) limits of the confi-
where Q is the trend slope between data points xi and xi, xi the dence interval were estimated as:
data measurement at time i, xi the data measurement at time i N 0 C N 0 C
and i the time after time i. M1 ; M2 10
2 2
After calculating the trend slope, an estimator was obtained
by the median slope (Q) given by:

Q0 QN 0 1=2; if N 0 is odd; and 2.6 Thematic maps

8
Q0 QN 0 =2 QN 0 2=2=2; if N 0 is even
where N is the number of calculated gradients.
For the analysis of the confidence interval for the
median slope, Z from normal distribution for a two-
tailed test was first determined. For example, if the con-
fidence interval 95 % is desired, one will get the Z1-0.05/
2 = Z0.475 = 1.96.
In this paper, geographic information system (GIS) was ap-
plied for spatial modeling of the mean values of rainfall, arid-
ity index, vegetation index, and statistics Mann-Kendall test
(MK), whose kriging geostatistical interpolation method was
used. The method is based on statistical models using the
auto-correlation in order to explain the spatial variation. This
procedure was used to calculate the value of the climate

y = 2.0512x + 411.29 A y = - 0.0772x + 77.99 B

VX = 1028, VM = 122, Z = 1.91 VX = 93.8, VM = 50.1, Z = -1.57

Fig. 3 Temporal analysis of rainfall (a) and aridity index (b) in the watershed of the upper Paraba River for the period 19502013
746
Fig. 4 Spatial variation of the Mann-Kendall Z statistical for rainfall (a) and aridity index (b) in the watershed of the upper Paraba River for the period
19502013
variable at a given point, given the values of neighboring
stations from a variogram model for the variable considered.
Ordinary kriging was used; based weights were based not only
on the distance between the measurement points and the loca-
tion of forecasting but also on the overall spatial arrangement
of measured points (Croitoru et al. 2013a;. Hrnjak et al. 2013;
Yamamoto and Landim 2013).
3 Results and discussion
The spatial distribution of rainfall (Fig. 2a) and aridity index
(Fig. 2b) shows that the minimum values of rainfall coincide
with the maximum values of the aridity index. Maximum
levels of rainfall are observed in the northwestern portion of
the watershed. In these areas, the elevations are higher (600
700 m), located at the source of the Paraba River (Monteiro
locality). The northeast and southeast portions of the
watershed have the lower rainfall values, whose strongest
core is located in the area of Cabaceiras, known as the driest
of Brazil. This location is on the lee side of the plateau of
Borborema, which explains the occurrence of the minimum
values of rainfall. Also, Hrnjak et al. (2013) and Croitoru et al.
(2013a) identified the orographic effect on the distribution of
rainfall and consequently the aridity index. Thus, there is an
increasing variation in rainfall between a minimum (320 mm)
in Cabaceiras and a maximum (680 mm) in the localities of
Prata and Ouro Velho. Nascimento and Alves (2008) conclud-
ed that the localities of eastern Cariri are drier and more af-
fected by seasonal variations in rainfall.
The eastern sector of the watershed has high aridity, unlike
the west sector, rainier, with minimum values of aridity. In the
western portion of the watershed, the aridity index is in the
range considered semiarid (31 < Ia 60), with moderate sus-
ceptibility while the eastern portion (61 < Ia 85) remained in
Costa dos Santos C.A.
the range considered arid, with high susceptibility to land
degradation/desertification (Table 1). The areas with more
pronounced dryness correspond to the localities of
Cabaceiras, Carabas, and So Joo do Cariri.
The combination of these two variables can indicate that, in
the drier area of the watershed and therefore less wet, there is a
greater susceptibility to degradation process of the lands. As
mentioned by Brasil (2004), the areas of the micro-regions of
western and eastern Cariri are in the process of desertification,
where the municipalities of Cabaceiras, So Joo do Cariri,
Serra Branca, and Camala are the most degraded districts.
The combination of factors such as lower rates of rainfall; high
levels of aridity; intensive land use, whether for agriculture or
livestock; and removal of vegetation cover potentiate the land
degradation process (Schucknecht et al. 2012; Odorico et al.
2013; Xu et al. 2014).
Studies by Sivakumar (2007) indicate that drought causes
great impact on soils and vegetation. Generally, high temper-
atures and low precipitation in the dry lands lead to poor
organic matter production and rapid oxidation. Low organic
matter leads to poor aggregation and low aggregate stability
leading to a high potential for wind and water erosion.
Relationship between increased aridity and vulnerability indi-
cator of land degradation was observed by Colantoni et al.
(2015), suggesting that the most vulnerable soils experienced
increased aridity.
The effects of rainfall and climatic phenomena such as El
NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) on vegetation were stud-
ied by Barbosa et al. (2006); Erasmi et al. (2009);
Schucknecht et al. (2013), and Erasmi et al. (2014) for the
Northeast region of Brazil and Schucknecht et al. (2012) for
the state of Paraba. The Caatinga vegetation is subject to
climate variability, which causes their reduction and spatial
and temporal variability in natural conditions. However, land
degradation caused by human intervention modifies the
Influence of climate variability on land degradation 747

natural conditions of this biome. Soil uncovered and exposed annual values of rainfall and aridity. It is observed that in the
to erosion, livestock, replacement of native vegetation by central portion of the watershed, there is a reduction (negative
grazing, and use of wood as a source of energy (firewood trend) of rainfall, while in areas further north, an increasing
and charcoal) are some of the conditions (Cavalcanti and trend is observed. However, when looking at trend data over
Coutinho 2005). time, it is observed that very dry regions are presented increas-
The temporal behavior of rainfall (Fig. 3a) and aridity in- ing trends in rainfall, such as the location of Cabaceiras.
dex (Fig. 3b) shows a tendency of increase in rainfall With regard to dryness, it increased in the central portion
(129.2 mm) and decrease in aridity index (4.9 %) over the while the portions of the watershed with larger absolute values
studied period. However, these trends are not significant at the of the dryness index showed no increasing trend over time.
significance level = 0.05, with (Z = 1.91) for rainfall and This may indicate that some regions became less arid, so that
(Z = 1.57) for the aridity index. Similar results were obtained further research must be developed by applying other indica-
for the Northern China region (Liu et al. 2013 and Xu et al. tors such as land use and occupancy issues and climate
2014) and for the central region of Northeast Brazil (Barbosa change. Somee et al. (2013) mentioned that the dryness oc-
et al. 2015). Zarch et al. (2015) also identified no significant curs mainly in places where anticyclone conditions are persis-
decrease in aridity index in the Brazilian semiarid region as a tent and added that any increase in aridity has serious effects
whole. Silva (2004) identified increase in rainfall and decrease on the yield and performance of rainfed agriculture.
in aridity index in semiarid area of northeast Brazil similar to According to Ahani et al. (2013), in general, Iran has a grow-
this study. Liu et al. (2013) found that increased rainfall is the ing trend of annual Ia in north and decreasing trend in the
dominant factor for the decrease in aridity index in northwest southern part of the country. Almeida and Silva (2008) found
China in the period 19602010, while Ahani et al. (2013) that the distribution of rainfall in Paraba Cariri region is ex-
concluded that the drought index is more sensitive to rainfall tremely irregular, in both time and spatial scales. In most
trends than to the reference evapotranspiration. years, there is a predominance of rainy season lasting only 2
It is possible to observe that the climatic aspects of the to 3 months, in others persists for up to 9 months or torrential
region (increase in rainfall and decreased dryness) are not rains in place and almost nothing in its surrounding region. At
directly affected by land degradation. This behavior occurs regions with more marked variability in rainfall distribution,
locally, and there is no evidence that they are modifying the areas with more severe aridity can be identified.
rainfall regime in the study region. Oyama and Nobre (2004),
in a modeling study conducted for the northeast region of Table 2 Trends of annual rainfall by Mann-Kendall test (MK) based on
Brazil, identified decrease in rainfall, evapotranspiration, and statistics (Z) and Sens slope estimator (Q) in the watershed of the upper
surface net radiation, while Milln et al. (2004) observed Paraba River for the period 19502013
changes in the regime of summer storms in the western Locations Z p value Q
Mediterranean in the context of desertification. Thus, the land
degradation/desertification observed in the study region is due Number Name
much to human activities than to climate change, corroborat- 1 So Joo do Cariri 1.17 0.24 0.71
ing with the results of Brinkmann et al. (2011) and Xu et al. 2 Serra Branca 0.02 0.97 0.23
(2014) for the Arabian Peninsula and region of North China, 3 Boqueiro 0.11 0.90 0.28
respectively. 4 Prata 1.54 0.12 4.31
Variations of rainfall and air temperature regimes, among 5 Monteiro 1.16 0.24 1.11
others, may enhance the degradation of the lands, to the extent 6 Sum 1.82 0.06 2.26
that influence plant growth, as explained by Mao et al. (2012) 7 Coxixola 0.95 0.33 1.71
and He (2014). However, there is no relevant information on 8 Carabas 1.80 0.07 1.61
natural climatic aspects of arid and semiarid regions that can 9 Congo 1.03 0.30 2.20
trigger the process of environmental degradation. Some stud- 10 Camala 3.21* 0.00 6.70
ies have shown how climate conditions may be affected indi- 11 Cabaceiras 3.11* 0.00 2.08
rectly by human activities such as removal of vegetation and 12 Barra de So Miguel 1.68 0.09 2.89
inappropriate land use (Marland et al. 2003; Milln et al. 13 So Sebastio do Umbuzeiro 1.06 0.28 2.68
2004; Sivakumar 2007). By analyzing several indicators of 14 So Joo do Tigre 0.85 0.39 0.89
15 So Domingos do Cariri 0.90 0.36 11.98
land degradation in Mexico, among them the aridity index,
16 Ouro Velho 2.52* 0.01 36.77
Berrecil-Pia et al. (2015) observed an increase of dryness
17 Amparo 0.54 0.58 6.92
with increasing vulnerability of that phenomenon.
The results on the spatial distribution of the annual rainfall The significance of the italized data is at 5 % level
and aridity index trends (MK) are shown in Fig. 4a, b, respec- *Z greater than 1.96 or less than 1.96 indicates significant increasing or
tively. Positive and negative trends were identified for the decreasing trend, respectively
748 Costa dos Santos C.A.

Table 3 Results of the Z statistic of Mann-Kendall test (MK) for the monthly rainfall for all locations in the watershed of the upper Paraba River for
the period 19502013

(MK) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

So Joo do Cariri
Z 1.34 0.01 0.54 0.10 0.55 1.61 1.42 3.22 2.63 2.53 1.27 0.16
p value 0.17 0.98 0.58 0.91 0.57 0.10 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.20 0.86
Serra Branca
Z 0.48 0.15 0.27 2.18 0.21 0.50 0.39 1.79 0.23 0.26 0.21 1.55
p value 0.62 0.87 0.78 0.02 0.82 0.61 0.68 0.07 0.81 0.79 0.83 0.11
Boqueiro
Z 0.07 0.14 1.77 1.62 0.23 0.73 0.07 1.39 0.06 1.21 1.20 0.24
p value 0.93 0.88 0.07 0.10 0.81 0.46 0.93 0.16 0.94 0.22 0.22 0.80
Prata
Z 1.297 0.652 2.063 1.898 0.165 0.516 0.787 0.249 2.138 0.436 0.286 0.486
p value 0.194 0.513 0.039 0.057 0.868 0.605 0.430 0.803 0.032 0.662 0.774 0.626
Monteiro
Z 2.928 0.468 1.234 0.756 0.202 0.189 1.498 3.023 3.236 1.622 1.555 0.590
p value 0.003 0.639 0.216 0.449 0.839 0.849 0.134 0.002 0.001 0.104 0.119 0.554
Sum
Z 2.529 1.321 0.326 0.194 0.944 1.201 1.572 1.848 1.323 1.626 1.475 0.564
p value 0.011 0.186 0.744 0.845 0.344 0.229 0.115 0.064 0.185 0.103 0.140 0.572
Coxixola
Z 0.009 0.849 0.471 2.127 1.168 2.028 0.080 2.236 0.353 0.101 0.709 0.874
p value 0.992 0.395 0.637 0.033 0.090 0.042 0.935 0.025 0.724 0.919 0.478 0.381
Carabas
Z 2.009 0.640 0.868 0.338 0.216 1.090 0.038 1.596 1.207 1.175 2.345 0.113
p value 0.044 0.521 0.384 0.734 0.828 0.275 0.969 0.110 0.227 0.239 0.019 0.909
Congo
Z 0.00 0.086 1.007 1.024 0.970 0.855 0.259 3.922 2.532 2.006 2.117 0.344
p value 1.000 0.931 0.313 0.305 0.331 0.392 0.795 0.000 0.011 0.044 0.034 0.730
Camala
Z 0.788 1.239 1.147 2.292 1.560 1.125 2.092 1.255 3.412 1.194 0.374 0.239
p value 0.430 0.215 0.251 0.003 0.118 0.260 0.036 0.209 0.006 0.232 0.708 0.810
Cabaceiras
Z 2.375 1.230 1.713 1.932 1.672 2.993 1.883 2.946 2.731 1.011 0.735 1.193
p value 0.017 0.218 0.086 0.053 0.094 0.002 0.059 0.003 0.006 0.311 0.461 0.232
Barra de So Miguel
Z 1.202 1.098 1.071 0.766 0.391 0.999 0.456 0.116 2.360 1.047 1.257 0.647
p value 0.229 0.272 0.284 0.443 0.695 0.317 0.648 0.906 0.018 0.294 0.208 0.517
So Sebastio do Umbuzeiro
Z 0.090 0.231 2.498 1.235 0.872 1.353 0.756 0.186 1.693 0.102 0.353 1.003
p value 0.364 0.817 0.012 0.216 0.382 0.175 0.449 0.851 0.090 0.918 0.723 0.315
So Joo do Tigre
Z 1.036 1.190 0.350 0.639 0.941 0.387 0.781 0.154 0.959 0.846 0.333 1.387
p value 0.300 0.233 0.726 0.522 0.346 0.698 0.434 0.876 0.337 0.397 0.739 0.165
So Domingos do Cariri
Z 0.135 0.501 0.090 1.080 0.720 0.360 0.720 1.282 0.346 1.369 2.385 0.346
p value 0.892 0.615 0.927 0.279 0.471 0.718 0.471 0.199 0.728 0.170 0.017 0.728
Ouro Velho
Z 1.039 2.161 0.900 0.720 0.768 2.431 0.360 0.940 0.645 0.512 1.610 0.184
p value 0.298 0.030 0.367 0.471 0.442 0.015 0.718 0.346 0.518 0.608 0.107 0.853
Amparo
Z 0.720 0.768 0.810 0.000 0.450 0.180 0.316 0.406 0.672 0.550 0.061 0.144
p value 0.471 0.442 0.417 1.000 0.652 0.857 0.751 0.684 0.501 0.581 0.951 0.885

The significance of the italized data is at 5 % level

Influence of climate variability on land degradation 749

Table 2 shows the results of statistical Z (MK) and the Sens any relative change in the beginning or even displacement of
slope estimator (Q) of annual rainfall for each location. In this the rainy season.
table, asterisks denote a significant tendency (negative or pos- As a result of the increased rainfall and low variability of
itive) to = 0.05 level of significance. It is observed that there the air temperature, the aridity index showed a declining trend
was a significant increase in rainfall in Cabaceiras (Z = 3.11) in most locations, being statistically significant in some cases
of approximately 2.1 mm year1. Ouro Velho also presented as at Cabaceiras and Ouro Velho (Table 4), with annual rate of
increasing trend (Z = 2.52), with an increase of reduction (0.27) and (1.54), respectively. The location of
36.7 mm year1. However, the location of Camala presented Camala showed increasing trend of aridity index, at an an-
significant decrease in rainfall (3.21) with a reduction of nual rate of 0.52. The other locations showed increasing or
6.6 mm year1. The locations of Sum and Carabas, with decreasing trend of aridity, but without statistical significance.
p values of 0.06 and 0.07, respectively, showed considerable
increases of rainfall. The other locations had positive or neg-
ative trends in rainfall, but without statistical significance. 4 Conclusions
Table 3 shows the Z statistical results of Mann-Kendall test
(MK) for the monthly rainfall. Underlined values indicate sig- In this study, the Mann-Kendall trend and Sens slope tests
nificant trend. These Z values show that the most significant were used to investigate the spatial and temporal trends and
trends occurred in only 13 locations, 22 % of these trends variability of rainfall and aridity index of 17 locations in the
occurred in September and 19 % in August. Most months watershed of the upper Paraba River for the period 1950
had increased trend, and the months of May and December 2013. The results of the analysis of the influence of climate
showed no significant trend. The location of Congo presented variables (rainfall and dryness) on land degradation
rainfall-increasing trend in four consecutive months: August, (desertification) in the watershed may lead to the following
September, October, and November. The location of Camala conclusions:
showed a significant decrease in April, July, and September,
and the location of Cabaceiras presented significant increase 1) In the watershed as a whole, there is an increase in rainfall
in January, June, August, and September. As there was no and reduced dryness throughout the study period. One
standardization of the trends, it was not possible to indicate can infer that these conditions do not contribute to trigger
land degradation process (desertification), suggesting that
Table 4 Trend of annual aridity index by Mann-Kendall test (MK) the cause of this environmental problem is not climate.
based on statistics (Z) and the Sens slope estimator (Q) in the watershed Thus, it is understood that the observed manifestations of
of the upper Paraba River for the period 19502013 land degradation are probably due to other factors such as
Locations Z p value Q the soil and vegetation degradation caused by human ac-
tivities. This helps to explain the influence of climate
Number Name component on land degradation process in the studied
1 So Joo do Cariri 1.82 0.06 0.18
region, since the climatic environment has not evolved
2 Serra Branca 0.50 0.61 0.09 to accentuate the process of desertification. Therefore,
3 Boqueiro 0.64 0.51 0.08 one of the most important aspects of this study is the
4 Prata 0.85 0.39 0.10 analysis of the component Bclimate change^ as the influ-
5 Monteiro 1.63 0.10 0.11 ence of the rainfall and aridity index variability on the
6 Sum 0.03 0.97 0.004 process of land degradation (desertification) in the water-
7 Coxixola 0.87 0.38 0.09 shed scale.
8 Carabas 0.93 0.34 0.09 2) There is a trend of increasing aridity and reducing rainfall
9 Congo 0.44 0.65 0.06 in the central portion of the watershed, with stronger core
10 Camala 3.43* 0.00 0.52 in the location of Camala, while in the northern portion,
11 Cabaceiras 3.40* 0.00 0.27 there is an increase. Unlike in the northern portion is an
12 Barra de So Miguel 1.77 0.07 0.25 increase in rainfall and reduced dryness. These results
13 So Sebastio do Umbuzeiro 0.99 0.31 0.15 need to be confronted with information on land use in
14 So Joo do Tigre 0.05 0.95 0.01 the watershed, to identify possible causes of this variation.
15 So Domingos do Cariri 1.26 0.20 0.86
3) The average annual rainfall increases in the northeast-
16 Ouro Velho 2.66* 0.00 1.54
northwest direction of the watershed, with minimum
17 Amparo 0.54 0.58 0.23
(320 mm) in Cabaceiras and a maximum (680 mm) in
The significance of the italized data is at 5 % level the locations of Ouro Velho and Prata;
*Z greater than 1.96 or less than 1.96 indicates increasing or decreasing 4) The eastern sector of the watershed presents marked dry-
significant trend, respectively ness, considered arid region with high susceptibility,
750
while the western sector, with low dryness values, con-
sidered semiarid with moderate susceptibility to the pro-
cess of land degradation/desertification. The cores with
more pronounced aridity correspond to the locations of
Cabaceiras, Carabas, and So Joo do Cariri.
Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the National
Council of Scientific and Technological Development - CNPq for
granting scholarship and the Coordenao de Aperfeioamento de
Pessoal de Nvel Superior (CAPES) for financing the Pr-Alertas
(88887.091737/2014-01) project.
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