Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Despite nearly three months of statewide television, digital, and direct mail advertising
by the campaign of JB Pritzker, at a running total of more than $8 million, nearly 4,000
points of broadcast television in the major Chicago media market, Chris Kennedywho
has spent ZERO dollars on paid communicationsnonetheless retains a lead outside the
surveys margin of error. In fact, while Pritzker has, unsurprisingly, increased his name
recognition and profile due to his early and massive TV buy, Kennedy also has increased
his name ID and virtually matches his opponents positive image. This was done
entirely through non-paid communication. These results reinforce Chris Kennedys
ability to maintain a competitive position in the face of what is likely shaping up as
record spending by the Pritzker campaign and win next Marchs primary even with his
opponents massive personal spending.
While Pritzkers massive personal spending on television has modestly increased his
share of the vote since our December 2016 survey (18% Pritzker), the notable result is
that Chris maintains his lead and actually has gained votes too (34% in December, 44%
in June) despite not spending a penny on television.
First, Chris leads in nearly every part of Illinois, winning the Chicago media market
by 43% to 38% and holding a wider 11% lead in Southern Illinois (46% to 35%). He
leads his opponent by equal margins among men and women, and holds leads among
both liberals (46% Kennedy, 35% Pritzker) and conservatives (Kennedy 40%, Pritzker
38%).
Second, both candidates have solid statewide name ID; Pritzker is known to 80% and
Kennedy is known to 70%. At this stage, both are reasonably popular with voters, but
Kennedy has virtually the same positive rating as Pritzker (45% positive to Kennedy,
46% positive to Pritzker) despite the $8 million in TV spending that has helped to create
the 10-point name ID deficit. In fact, Chriss ratio of nine-to-one positive is much
stronger than the 3.8-to-one positive for JB Pritzker. These results suggest that
some of the press reports on Pritzkers property tax issues and his FBI
recordings appear to be hurting his standing among primary voters.
None of the other Democratic candidates we polled have made much of an impact with
primary voters, with just 19% able to rate Daniel Biss and 14% who similarly know
Ameya Pawar. This is a two-way race between Kennedy and Pritzker for the
Democratic nomination at this point in the campaign.
In summary, this surveys findings are notable and encouraging for the fact that Chris
Kennedy is able to maintain his momentum in the face of an opponent who has spent
more than $8 million on paid communications, compared with zero for Chris Kennedy.
Indeed, Chris has more than held his own and continues to lead in the primary trial heat
because voters are responding to his strong message of independence and shaking up
the unfair and inequitable property tax system. The massive defection from JB Pritzker
at the end of the survey demonstrates the tenuousness of his support, and that Chris is
in the strongest position to win the nomination next March even if outspent by his
opponent.