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Keywords: In recent years, because of the high potential for insurability in Turkey and the rapid improvement of
Multi-criteria decision making insurance sector, foreign investors are interested in Turkish insurance market. Since insurability rate
VIKOR method has reached saturation point in their countries, foreign investors tended to make investments in Turkey
Fuzzy sets and start to purchase local insurance companies in Turkey. In this paper we analyze ve Turkish insur-
Selection problem
ance companies for a foreign investor who wants to purchase a local insurance company. For selecting
Insurance sector
the most appropriate alternative we used the extended VIKOR method which applied to determine the
best feasible solution according to the selected criteria. This method was developed to solve multiple cri-
teria decision making problems with conicting and non-commensurable criteria, assuming that com-
promising is acceptable for conict resolution. In this paper, the alternatives are evaluated according
to all established criteria with the VIKOR method completely under fuzzy environment with fuzzy sets.
2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
0957-4174/$ - see front matter 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.09.065
G.N. Ycenur, N.. Demirel / Expert Systems with Applications 39 (2012) 37023707 3703
was to determine the priority ranking of alternative Turkish to 2010 (http, 2010). That is why, in this paper we analyze ve
insurance companies for the evaluating of suitability of their pur- Turkish insurance companies for our foreign investor who wants
chasable by an international investor. to purchase a local company and be included by the Turkish
As an outline, the Turkish insurance sector and rm purchasing economy.
reasons are presented in Section 2. The denition and the back-
ground of VIKOR method and its applications are presented in Sec-
tion 3. Section 4 is about a proposed solution method for selection 3. VIKOR method and its applications
problem under fuzzy environment. A numerical example illus-
trates an application of VIKOR method for selection problem in VIKOR was developed by Opricovic (1998) and Opricovic and
Section 5 and in the nal section some conclusions are drawn for Tzeng (2002) with the Serbian name: VlseKriterijumska Optimiza-
the study. cija I Kompromisno Resenje, means multi-criteria optimization and
compromise solution. The VIKOR method was developed for multi-
2. Insurance sector and rm purchasing in Turkey criteria optimization of complex systems and this method focuses
on ranking and selecting from a set of alternatives, and determines
Having enjoyed a spectacular growth consistently after the compromise solutions for a problem with conicting criteria,
nancial crisis in 2001 the insurance industry in Turkey experi- which can help the decision makers to reach a nal decision. Here,
enced a slight decline at the last quarter of the 2008 and concluded the compromise solution is a feasible solution which is the closest
the year with a growth rate below ination as a result of the global to the ideal, and a compromise means an agreement established by
nancial crisis. Contrary to the insurance market, the individual mutual concessions. It introduces the multi-criteria ranking index
pension system coming into force in 2003 continued to grow with- based on the particular measure of closeness to the ideal solu-
out its losing enthusiasm of the rst years. In 2008, the number of tion (Sanayei et al., 2010).
the participants and the total amount of contributions in the sys- According to Sayadi et al. (2009), the multi-criteria measure for
tem increased by 18% and 39%, respectively (http, 2010). compromise ranking is developed from the PLp-metric used as an
A major indicator of the importance of insurance industry for an aggregating function in a compromise programming method. The
economy is the total amount of coverage. There is not any industry various m alternatives are denoted as A1, A2, . . . , Am. For alternative
which immunes from effects of the crisis. However, the direct im- Ai, the rating of the jth aspect is denoted by fij, i.e. fij is the value of
pact of the crisis in Turkish insurance market has been limited. The jth criterion function for the alternative Ai; n is the number of cri-
biggest effects have been observed on the premium production. teria. Development of the VIKOR method started with the follow-
After the seven-year period of growth the trend reversed in 2008 ing form of Lp-metric:
and we witnessed a slight growth below ination rate. However, ( )1=p
the industry was recovered from the negative effects of the crisis Xn
p
shortly and entered into the period of high growth again in 2010 Lp;j wi fi fij = fi fi 1 6 p 6 1; j
i1
(http, 2010). In Table 1, premium generation by the insurance mar-
ket in Turkey is shown for 20 yrs. 1; 2; . . . ; J: 1
The high potential of insurability in Turkey and the rapid
improvement of insurance and pension sector pointed Turkish In the VIKOR method L1,i (as Si) and L1,i (as Ri) are used to formulate
insurance market to foreign investors. Since insurability rate has ranking measure. The solution obtained by Si is with a maximum
reached saturation point in their countries, foreign investors group utility (majority rule), and the solution obtained by min
tended to make investments in developing countries and briskness Ri is with a minimum individual regret of the opponent (Sayadi
in Turkish insurance sector that started in 2006 continued to grow et al., 2009).
Table 1
Premium generation by the insurance market in Turkey (http, 2010).
X
n
Si wj fj fij = fi fi ; 6
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 j1
Fig. 1. Linguistic variables for importance weight of each criteria (Sanayei et al., Ri max wj fj fij = fi fi : 7
2010). j
G.N. Ycenur, N.. Demirel / Expert Systems with Applications 39 (2012) 37023707 3705
Table 2
where A(2) is the alternative with second position in the ranking
Importance weight of criteria from three decision makers. list by Q;DQ = 1/(J 1).
C2. Acceptable stability in decision making: The alternative A(1)
Criteria Decision makers
must also be the best ranked by S or/and R. This compromise
D1 D2 D3 solution is stable within a decision making process, which could
C1 H VH VH be the strategy of maximum group utility (when v > 0.5 is
C2 H H H needed), or by consensus v 0.5, or with veto (v < 0.5).
C3 MH H MH
Here, v is the weight of decision making strategy of maximum
C4 MH MH M
C5 M MH M group utility. If one of the conditions is not satised, then a
C6 ML ML M set of compromise solutions is proposed, which consist of
C7 ML ML ML Alternatives A(1) and A(2) if only the conditions C2 is not sat-
C8 M ML ML ised, or
Alternatives A(1), A(2), . . ., A(M) if the condition C1 is not satis-
ed; A(M) is determined by the relation Q(A(M)) Q(A(1)) < DQ
Step 8: Compute the values Qi by the relations
for maximum M (the positions of these alternatives are in
Q i v Si S =S S 1 v Ri R =R R 8 closeness).
where S = miniSi, S = maxiSi, R = min Rii, R = maxRii and v is
5. Numerical example for selection problem
introduced as a weight for the strategy of maximum group
utility, whereas 1 v is the weight of the individual regret.
The proposed model has been applied to an insurance company
Step 9: Rank the alternatives, sorting by the values S, R and Q in
selection problem of an international insurance rm which wants
ascending order
to purchase a public insurance company in Turkey.
Step 10: Propose as a compromise solution the alternative (A(1))
The steps of the solution process can be dened as in follows:
which is the best ranked by the measure Q (minimum)
if the following two conditions are satised
Step 1: The international company desires to select a suitable
public insurance rm in Turkey to purchase its nancial struc-
C1. Acceptable advantage:
ture. After preliminary screening, ve candidate Turkish insur-
Q A2 Q A1 P DQ; 9 ance rms (A1, A2, A3, A4, A5) remain for further evaluation.
Table 3
Ratings of the ve alternative insurance rms by the decision makers under the various criteria.
Alternatives Criteria
C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8
Decision maker
D1 A1 MP MP MP MG G G F MP
A2 MG P P P MP MP MP MP
A3 MP F VG F MG G F F
A4 VG P P VP P P P MP
A5 VP MG MG G G VG F MG
D2 A1 MP F MP G G VG MG MP
A2 F P P P MP MP MP MP
A3 P MG VG MG G G F F
A4 VG P VP VP P VP P P
A5 VP F MG VG G VG MG MG
D3 A1 F MP P MG G G F F
A2 MG MP VP MP P F MP MP
A3 P MG G MG G MG F F
A4 VG P VP P VP P VP P
A5 P G MG G MG VG MG MG
3706 G.N. Ycenur, N.. Demirel / Expert Systems with Applications 39 (2012) 37023707
Table 5
Table 6
The values of S, R and Q for all alternative insurance rms.
C7
Alternatives
A1 A2 A3 A4 A5
(0.80, 0.90, 1.00, 1 00)
(0.30, 0.73, 0.77, 0.90)
(0.20, 0.37, 0.43, 0.60)
(0.70, 0.83, 0.87, 1.00)
(0.20, 0.37, 0.43, 0.60)
Table 7
The ranking of the alternative insurance rms by S, R and Q in decreasing order.
(0.40, 0.53, 0.57, 0.80)
Ranking alternatives
1 2 3 4 5
By S A5 A3 A1 A2 A4
By R A1 A3 A2 A5 A4
By Q A1 A3 A5 A2 A4
C5
Portfolio structure
Portfolio size
(0.50, 0.67, 0.73, 0.90)
A2
A3
A4
A5
Step 5: The crisp values for decision matrix and weight of each
Al
Step 6: The best and the worst values of all criterion ratings are recommended alternative insurance companies according to criteria
determined as follows: such as price, protability, portfolio structure, portfolio size,
f 1 = 0.92 f 2 = 0.65 f 3 = 0.87 f 4 = 0.85 f 5 = 0.80 f 6 = 0.92 f 7 = 0.60 f 8 = 0.65
f 1 =0.12 f 2 = 0.20 f 3 = 0.12 f 4 = 0.12 f 5 = 0.15 f 6 = 0.15 f 7 = 0.15 f 8 = 0.27
Steps 7: The value of S is calculated for all alternative rms as sales channel structure, brand equity, organizational quality and
Table 6. solvency ratio.
Steps 8: The value of R is calculated for all alternative rms as
Table 6. References
Steps 9: The value of Q is calculated for all alternative rms as
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