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CHAPTER 15
FINANCIAL FORECASTING
FOR STRATEGIC GROWTH
I. Questions
1. The reason is that, ultimately, sales are the driving force behind a
business. A firms assets, employees, and, in fact, just about every aspect
of its operations and financing exist to directly or indirectly support
sales. Put differently, a firms future need for things like capital assets,
employees, inventory, and financing are determined by its future sales
level.
3. False. At low growth rates, internal financing will take care of the firms
needs.
4. The internal growth rate is greater than 15%, because at a 15% growth
rate the negative EFN indicates that there is excess internal financing. If
the internal growth rate is greater than 15%, then the sustainable growth
rate is certainly greater than 15%, because there is additional debt
financing used in that case (assuming the firm is not 100% equity-
financed). As the retention ratio is increased, the firm has more internal
sources of funding, so the EFN will decline. Conversely, as the retention
ratio is decreased, the EFN will rise. If the firm pays out all its earnings
in the form of dividends, then the firm has no internal sources of funding
(ignoring the effects of accounts payable); the internal growth rate is zero
in this case and the EFN will rise to the change in total assets.
II. Problems
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Chapter 15 Financial Forecasting for Strategic Growth
and balance sheet increases by 15 percent, the pro forma income statement
and balance sheet will look like this:
Assuming costs and assets increase proportionally, the pro forma financial
statements will look like this:
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Financial Forecasting for Strategic Growth Chapter 15
If no dividends are paid, the equity account will increase by the net income,
so:
Equity = 5,900 + 2,844 = 8,744
Assuming costs and assets increase proportionally, the pro forma financial
statements will look like this:
The payout ratio is constant, so the dividends paid this year is the payout
ratio from last year times net income, or:
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Chapter 15 Financial Forecasting for Strategic Growth
ROE = NI / TE
ROE = 8,910 / 56,000 = .1591 or 15.91%
b = 1 .30 = .70
Assuming costs vary with sales and a 20 percent increase in sales, the pro
forma income statement will look like this:
Jordan Corporation
Pro Forma Income Statement
Sales 45,600.00
Costs 22,080.00
Taxable income 23,520.00
Taxes (34%) 7,996.80
Net income 15,523.20
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Financial Forecasting for Strategic Growth Chapter 15
The payout ratio is constant, so the dividends paid this year is the payout
ratio from last year times net income, or:
Below is the balance sheet with the percentage of sales for each account on
the balance sheet. Notes payable, total current liabilities, long-term debt, and
all equity accounts do not vary directly with sales.
Jordan Corporation
Balance Sheet
Assets () (%)
Current assets
Cash 3,050 8.03
Accounts receivable 6,900 18.16
Inventory 7,600 20.00
Total 17,550 46.18
Fixed assets
Net plant and equipment 34,500 90.79
Total assets 52,050 136.97
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Chapter 15 Financial Forecasting for Strategic Growth
Lewis Company
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
December 31, 2012
(Millions of Pesos)
1st 2nd
Pass AFN Pass
2011 (1 + g) Additions 2012 Effects 2012
Cash 80 (1.2) 96 96
Accounts
receivable 240 (1.2) 288 288
Inventory 720 (1.2) 864 864
Total current
assets 1,040 1,248 1,248
Fixed assets 3,200 (1.2) 3,840 3,840
Total assets 4,240 5,088 5,088
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Financial Forecasting for Strategic Growth Chapter 15
Accounts
payable 160 (1.2) 192 192
Accruals 40 (1.2) 48 48
Notes payable 252 252 +51** 303
Total current
liabilities 452 492 543
Long-term debt 1,244 1,244 +248** 1,492
Total debt 1,696 1,736 2,035
Common stock 1,605 1,605 +368** 1,973
Retained
earnings 939 141* 1,080 42*** 1,038
Total liabilities
and equity 4,240 4,421 5,046
AFN = 667 42
Alternatively;
Total debt = Total liabilities and equity Common stock Retained earnings
Total debt = 1,200,000 425,000 295,000 = 480,000
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Chapter 15 Financial Forecasting for Strategic Growth
AFN = 360
Target FA = 0.25 (2,000) = 500 = Required FA. Since the firm currently
has 500 of FA, no new FA will be required.
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Financial Forecasting for Strategic Growth Chapter 15
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Chapter 15 Financial Forecasting for Strategic Growth
= (240,000,000/300,000,000) (45,000,000)
(120,000,000/300,000,000) (45,000,000) .08
(345,000,000) (1 .25)
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Financial Forecasting for Strategic Growth Chapter 15
b. If Mercury reduces the payout ratio, the company will retain more
earnings and need less external funds. A slower growth rate means that
less assets will have to be financed and in this case, less external funds
would be needed. A declining profit margin will lower retained earnings
and forced Mercury to seek more external funds.
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