The Hulbert Financial Digest
Volume 36, Issue 6
ASK MARK
How can I track an advisers
performance in the absence
of services such as the
HFDs?
My first suggestion is to track,
on your own, any adviser
youre interested in following.
Just sign up for a several-
month trial subscription to
his service and paper-trade
his recommendations over
that trial period. Pay close
attention to not just whether
your overall numbers match
his, but also such details as
whether the execution price
you obtain for your paper
trades are close to what he
reports. Discrepancies are a
red flag, to say the least.
If paper trading an
advisers portfolio is too
cumbersome, there are still
some rules of thumb that can
be helpful. Here are a few of
these rules:
Does the adviser maintain a
specific model portfoliowith
numbers of shares or portfolio
percentages assigned to each
holding? Other things being
equal, you should give more
weight to the performance
numbers claimed by such an
adviser, since advice this pre-
cise makes it more difficult for
an unscrupulous advertiser to
fudge the numbers.
CONTINUED ON PAGE 2
The HFD is one of a suite of products based on a database containing 35 years worth of invest-
ment recommendations from retail-oriented investment advisers.
NEWSLETTERS PROFILED IN THIS ISSUE: February 2016
Bob Brinkers Marketimer
Investment Reporter
Written and edited
Louis Navelliers Emerging Growth by Mark Hulbert
HFD EXCLUSIVE
Lessons learned over the last 36 years
As this is the last issue of the HFD (see notice
below), I am devoting this issues lead article
to summarizing the timeless lessons that have
emerged from the 36 years the HFD has been
tracking the investment advisers. I am confi-
dent that, even if the HFD were to continue
publishing for another 36 years, these lessons
would remain just as true.
Lesson #1
The first, and perhaps most important, lesson
to draw from the HFDs database is that it is
very difficult to beat the market over the long The depressing evidence is summarized in
term. Not just very difficult, but extremely so. the page-two chart: Fewer than 10% of advis-
I am hardly the first to draw this lesson, of ers for which the HFD has continuous data
course. Nor is this issue of the HFD the first beat the stock market over the entire period
time that I have drawn it for you. So you may from mid-1980 through this past January 31.
be tempted to downplay this lessons signifi- To be sure, these results wouldnt have
cance or even to overlook it altogether. But to be fatal, provided the advisers with great
regardless of whether this lesson is boring or long-term records proceeded to beat the
earth-shattering, it remains overwhelmingly market in subsequent years. But they also
true. You overlook it at your peril. CONTINUED ON PAGE 2
The last issue of the HFD! goal of independently tracking investment
advisers performances was downright revo-
It is with much sadness that I report that this is lutionary. In todays world, in contrast, awash
the last and final issue of the HFD. In coming as it is in Big Data, it seems to be less needed.
days you will receive an email from Dow Jones That, at least, is the judgment of the market.
providing details of the refund youre owed The one subscription product that will
for the unused portion of your subscription. continue is to the Hulbert Sentiment Indices;
If you have any questions please dont hesitate for more information on those indices email
to contact us via email at orders@marketwatch. sentiment@hulbertratings.com. And I will
com or by calling 1-888-485-2378. continue to write columns for the Market-
Thank you for being part of the HFDs Watch website. So I am not going away!
remarkable 36-year journey. The world today In the meantime, thanks again and best of
is a lot different than it was in 1980, when my luck in your investments!
A service of
2 HFD
ASK MARK
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1
I say this because I have found
that outright lying about perfor-
mance is relatively rare. Far more
common is spinning the numbers
in a way that implies something
that is false but doesnt actually
outright lie.
Particularly worthy of paying
attention to are advisers whose
specific portfolios arent hypothet-
ical but real-worldand who offer
to share brokerage statements
with interested clients.
A related rule of thumb is to be
skeptical of performance claims
that are based simply on the
average return of a list of recom-
mended positions. Thats because
it makes a big difference the order
in which those recommendations
were made. Its theoretically pos-
sible that you could lose every-
thing by following stocks whose
average return is quite impressive.
When the advisor makes per-
formance claims, does he report
the precise period over which the
performance was produced and
the assumptions used to calculate
that performance? The vaguer the
parameters, needless to say, the
less importance you should place
on them.
If a performance claim seems
too good to be true, it probably is.
Im amazed by investors gull-
ibility: Those who are incredibly
shrewd elsewhere in their lives
become surprisingly naive in the
face of advisers claiming sky-high
returns. As the proverbs say, a
fool and his money will soon be
parted. Dont let that sage wisdom
be referring to your behavior!
Lessons learned over the last 36 years
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1
find it extremely difficult to beat the market. ren Buffett, the most successful investor alive
Though the pasts long-term winners have bet- today, did betterthough not by a lot: He beat
ter subsequent track records than the pasts a buy-and-hold over this period by an annual-
long-term losers, even they struggle. ized average of 7.7 percentage points per year.
Keep these numbers in mind the next
Lesson #2 time an adviser claims annual returns in the
The second lesson: The reason to deviate hundreds of percent. Though its theoretically
from a long-term buy-and-hold is as much possible a far-better-than-Buffett genius has
psychological as statistical. You may find that decided to share his stock picks with you, call
you cant resist trying to beat the market, for me if youre inclined to subscribe to him: I
example. If so, the psychologically realistic have a bridge I want to sell you too.
thing to do is indulge your compulsion with-
out risking your entire portfolio in the process. Lesson #4
I recommend following the advice of the The last timeless lesson I want to leave you
late Harry Browne, a well-regarded adviser with is that short term performance is mostly
from the 1970s and 1980s. He recommended noise. That means, when choosing an adviser,
dividing your investments into two portfolios. you should barely pay any attention to recent
The first, which he called your Variable performance and focus instead on returns
Portfolio, would be the one that you actively produced over many, many years.
manage and in which you try to beat the mar- When using a model introduced by Brad-
ket. Only a small fraction of your investable ford Cornell of the California Institute of
net worth should be invested in it, with the Technology, for example, I calculated that
balance in a so-called Permanent Portfolio more than 90% of the annual fluctuations in
that would be well diversified among index advisers returns was due to luck rather than
funds benchmarked to various asset classes. skill. Cornell reached the same result when
focusing on large-cap equity mutual funds.
Lesson #3 Hopefully it goes without saying that if you
The third lesson: The best you can hope for were to pick an adviser based on his luck, you
is beating the stock market by an annualized have done absolutely nothing to increase your
average of just a few percentage point. This is odds of success. Yet that is what youre doing
crucial since it defines the risks and rewards of when choosing an adviser based on how hes
trying to beat the market. You might conclude, done over the last few months or quarters.
for example, that even though beat-
100% Investment newsletter performance from June 1980 through January 2016
ing the market over the long term
90%
is not impossible, you might as well 80%
not even trysince what you gain if 70%
you win is too small to justify the 60%
risk of the bigger losses you will 50%
incur if youre wrong. 40%
Consider the letter at the top of 30%
the scoreboard for performance 20%
since mid-1980: It beat a buy-and- 10%
hold by 3.7 percentage points per 0%
Beat market since mid-1980 Lagged market since mid-1980 Newsletter didn't survive but was Newsletter didn't survive but was
year on an annualized basis. War- ahead of market at time coverage behind the market at time
came to an end coverage came to an end

Hulbert NASDAQ Newsletter Sentiment Index
Two months ago in this space I warned
that stock market sentiment was unfa-
vorable, at levels that in the past had
spelled at least short-term trouble for
the stock market. As we know now,
of course, we got a lot more than just
short-term trouble!
Contrarians were not surprised by the
ferocity of the decline earlier this year.
Throughout January and early February,
the stock market timing community
stubbornly refused to become even as
bearish as they had been at the depths
of last summers correction. Only as
this issue of the HFD goes to press
(February 9) does it appear as though
those stock market timers are finally
throwing in the towel.
Consider the average recommended
stock market exposure level among a
subset of short-term equity market tim-
ers monitored by the Hulbert Financial
Digest (HFD) who focus on the NAS-
DAQ market in particular (as measured
by the Hulbert NASDAQ Newsletter
Sentiment Index, or HNNSI). This
index currently stands at minus 68.8%.
Thats now lower even than the minus
50.0% to which the HNNSI fell at the
bottom of this past summers correc-
tion. Contrarians would therefore not
be surprised by a rally of at least similar
magnitude to what the market produced
in September and October.
It will be crucial to see how the stock
market timing community reacts when
the stock market finally does mount a
strong rally. It would be a bad sign if
they quickly jump back on the bullish
bandwagonin which case contrarians
would forecast an earlier end to the
rally. But if the market timers remain
mostly bearish during the early phases
of the rally, then it would suggest that
the so-called Wall of Worry is quite
strongand that the rally could last that
5,400
5,200
5,000
4,800
4,600
4,400
4,200
NASDAQ Composite (Left axis)
4,000
HNNSI (Right axis)
3,800
12/31/14 02/28/15 04/30/15
much longer, and take the market that
much higher.
One virtue of contrarian analysis is
that there is no need to predict which
of these two outcomes is most likely to
come to pass. Instead, we can sit back
and watch the sentiment story unfold in
real timeand react accordingly.
Of course, the usual qualifications ap-
ply: Contrarian analysis doesnt always
work, and even when it does it applies
only to the short-term (up to three or so
months into the future). So even if its
current optimism is on target, it doesnt
mean the stock market couldnt be
markedly lower, say, a year from now.
Summary of other Hulbert
sentiment indices
General stock marketThe Hulbert
Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index
(HSNSI) stands at minus 31.4%, after
having gotten as low as minus 32.1% in
mid-January and as high as plus 65.7%
in early December. On average, the
HSNSI over the last 12 months was
plus 31.7%.
Gold marketThe Hulbert Gold
HFD 3
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
06/30/15 08/31/15 10/31/15 12/31/15
Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI)
stands at plus 40.0%, after having gotten
as low as minus 23.3% in early January.
On average, the HGNSI over the last
12 months was minus 7.3%.
Two months ago in this space I
warned that stock market senti-
ment was unfavorable, at levels
that in the past had spelled at
least short-term trouble for the
stock market. As we know now, of
course, we got a lot more than just
short-term trouble!
BondsThe Hulbert Bond Newslet-
ter Sentiment Index (HBNSI) stands at
plus 15.9%, after having gotten as high
as plus 32.4% in mid January and as low
as minus 8.8% in early December. Its
12-month average is plus 9.9%.
If you dont want to wait until subsequent HFD
issues for sentiment updates, you can sub-
scribe to daily or weekly email updates. The
cost depends on the frequency of updates and
how many of the HFDs four sentiment indexes
you desire. For more information, send an
email to: sentiment@hulbertratings.com
4 HFD
N E W S L E T T E R A N A LY S I S

Bob Brinkers Marketimer

MARKS COMMENTARY:
Bob Brinkers newsletter is primarily
intended to help mutual fund investors
$10,000,000
Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index
Represented by vertical bars
(Series shifted so that the index
equals $100,000 at the point the HFD
began following newsletter)

time the domestic and international $1,000,000

stock and bond markets as well as select

individual funds. His approach involves
a combination of both technical and
fundamental analysis. $100,000

Brinker maintains three model port-

Bob Brinker's Marketimer
folios. He also recommends two addi- 1980 results reflect last 6
months of the
(Average of portfolios)
Represented by line
tional portfolios, one for fixed-income year only
$10,000
investors and another that utilizes index 6/80 6/81 6/82 6/83 6/84 6/85 6/86 6/87 6/88 6/89 6/90 6/91 6/92 6/93 6/94 6/95 6/96 6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00 6/01 6/02 6/03 6/04 6/05 6/06 6/07 6/08 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15

funds, neither of which he considers a *

model portfolio for tracking purposes. PERFORMANCE (THROUGH 1/31/16)
Even though the HFD calculates indi- Lifetime* 1 yr 3 yrs 5 yrs 8 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs
% GAIN/LOSS**
vidual track records for these two addi- Letters Average +1219.4( 9.3) -3.3 +22.7(7.1) +42.9(7.4) +59.5(6.0) +80.1(6.1) +180.9( 7.1)
tional portfolios, their performances are Wilshire 5000 +1402.4( 9.8) -2.1 +35.4(10.6) +63.7(10.4) +68.0(6.7) +86.3(6.4) +106.2( 4.9)
not included in what the HFD calculates ADJUSTED FOR RISK***

Letters Average +0.15 -0.07 +0.23 +0.21 +0.13 +0.12 +0.15

to be the newsletters average.
Wilshire 5000 +0.14 -0.03 +0.28 +0.25 +0.13 +0.12 +0.09
Calculated in this way, Brinkers port- *Over entire period tracked by HFD. **Annualized equivalents are shown in parentheses.
folio average, as of January 31, 2016, is ***Average monthly % performance per unit of risk. The higher the number, the better.

ranked in 7th place over the last 25 years

(among the 38 newsletters the HFD
tracked over this period). On a risk-
adjusted basis, the newsletters rank over
this 25-year period jumps to second.
Long Term Market Timer
Though Brinker is a stock market
timer, he typically focuses on longer-
term trends rather than on shorter-term
gyrations. Over the 29+ years that the
HFD has tracked his newsletter, for
example, only twice has he deviated
from being fully invested. The first was
after the 1987 crash, a move that ended
up costing his portfolios. His second
deviation, a profitable one, lasted from
January 2000 until March 2003. Despite
this mixed market timing record, these
deviations from being fully invested
have, on balance, ended up helping his
performance.
In contrast, Brinkers recommended
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS1/31/16 (AVERAGE OF ALL PORTFOLIOS)
Composition: Long: 100%
Number Of Securities Held: 4
Avg. Holding Period of Current Positions: 2,133 days
Volatility vs Wilshire last 12 Months: 18% less
Over entire period followed: 16% less
Largest 12-Month Loss: -36.4% (vs. -43.3% for Wilshire)
Robert J. Brinker Subscription: $185/year
10789 Bradford Rd., Suite 210 Frequency: Monthly
Littleton, CO 80127 Hotline? Yes
303-660-8686 Manages money? No
www.bobbrinker.com Investment focus: Mutual funds
help@marketimer.com HFD data since: 12/31/1986
mutual funds on average have not Brinkers bear market bet on QQQ
beaten the market. For example, his Please note: In late 2000, Brinker fore-
Aggressive portfolio would have casted a several-month bear market rally
performed 0.7 of a percentage point and recommended an investment in
per year better since year-end 1986 if, the NASDAQ 100 Indexa trade that
instead of investing in the particular turned out quite unprofitably. However,
actively-managed mutual funds that because Brinker at the time of making
Brinker actually recommended, it had this forecast chose not to make this trade
instead invested the same amounts in a part of his model portfolios, his HFD
stock market index fund. record did not suffer as a result.
 HFD 5
N E W S L E T T E R A N A LY S I S

The Investment Reporter

MARKS COMMENTARY:
The Investment Reporter has been
published continuously since 1941,
$10,000,000
Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index
Represented by vertical bars
(Series shifted so that the index
equals $100,000 at the point the HFD
began following newsletter)

making it one of the oldest investment $1,000,000

newsletters in North America.

Each weekly issue examines a group
of stocks in depth and provides overall
market commentary. Beginning in mid- $100,000

1991 it also began to provide regular ad- The Investment Reporter

1980 results reflect last 6
vice on U.S. companies. Its investment months of the
(Average of portfolios)
Represented by line
year only
approach is primarily fundamental, $10,000
and it takes a relatively long-term view 6/80 6/81 6/82 6/83 6/84 6/85 6/86 6/87 6/88 6/89 6/90 6/91 6/92 6/93 6/94 6/95 6/96 6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00 6/01 6/02 6/03 6/04 6/05 6/06 6/07 6/08 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15

of investing. *
The HFDs performance calculations PERFORMANCE (THROUGH 1/31/16)
for The Investment Reporter are based Lifetime* 1 yr 3 yrs 5 yrs 8 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs
% GAIN/LOSS**
primarily on the stock recommenda- Letters Average +3586.2( 11.9) +1.8 +18.3(5.8) +59.2(9.7) +77.1(7.4) +118.5( 8.1) +372.5(10.9)
tions that appear in a monthly supple- Wilshire 5000 +2282.6( 10.4) -2.1 +35.4(10.6) +63.7(10.4) +68.0(6.7) +86.3(6.4) +106.2( 4.9)
ment entitled The Investment Planning ADJUSTED FOR RISK***

Letters Average +0.15 +0.06 +0.15 +0.21 +0.13 +0.13 +0.17

Guide. This monthly supplement
Wilshire 5000 +0.14 -0.03 +0.28 +0.25 +0.13 +0.12 +0.09
recommends Canadian stocks in five *Over entire period tracked by HFD. **Annualized equivalents are shown in parentheses.
different risk categories (ranging from ***Average monthly % performance per unit of risk. The higher the number, the better.

Very Conservative to Speculative)

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS1/31/16 (AVERAGE OF ALL PORTFOLIOS)
and U.S. stocks in the same five catego-
Composition: Long: 100%
ries. The makeup of these categories
Number Of Securities Held: 9
changes very rarelyas evidenced by Avg. Holding Period of Current Positions: 1,878 days
their 1,878-day average holding period Volatility vs Wilshire last 12 Months: 1% more
(see table to the right). Thats over five Over entire period followed: 11% more
years, on average. Largest 12-Month Loss: -50.9% (vs. -43.3% for Wilshire)
The Investment Reporter does not
Marc Johnson Subscription: $337/year
recommend a specific stocks-versus- 133 Richmond St. West Frequency: Weekly
cash division of its portfolios, so the Toronto Canada M5H 3M8 Hotline? Yes
416-869-1177 Manages money? No
HFD constructs a portfolio for each www.investmentreporter.com Focus: Stocks
customers@mplcomm.com HFD data since: 12/31/1983
category that is fully invested at all times.

Portfolio performance
Since the beginning of 1996, The Invest-
ment Reporter has recommended that
subscribers allocate 25% to U.S. stocks.
Therefore, in calculating an average of
this newsletters many portfolios, the
HFD follows this allocation advice.
Prior to 1996, in contrast, each portfolio
was given equal weight.
Calculated in this way, the newsletter
produced an 11.9% annualized gain Balanced, and Growth. They are
from the beginning of 1984 through constructed from stocks recommended
1/31/16beating the 10.4% annualized in the monthly Investment Planning
return for the Wilshire 5000 index. It Guide. However, because the editor
also outperforms the Wilshire 5000 on insists that these are not recommended
a risk-adjusted basis. model portfolios, the HFD simply
calculates their performances but does
Sample portfolios not take them into account when calcu-
In 2001, this newsletter created three so- lating the newsletters overall average
called sample portfolios: Income, performance.
6 HFD
N E W S L E T T E R A N A LY S I S

Louis Navelliers Emerging Growth

MARKS COMMENTARY:
Louis Navelliers Emerging Growth is
in 5th place among the 24 investment
$10,000,000
Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index
Represented by vertical bars
(Series shifted so that the index
equals $100,000 at the point the HFD
began following newsletter)

newsletters the HFD has tracked over $1,000,000

the last 30 yearsover which period it

produced a 10.4% annualized return
(according to the HFD), versus 10.0%
annualized for the Wilshire 5000 Total $100,000

Market Index. Louis Navellier's Emerging Growth

1980 results reflect last 6
To be sure, this stock-market-beating months of the
(Average of portfolios)
Represented by line
year only
return was produced with a lot more $10,000
volatility, or risk, than the stock market 6/80 6/81 6/82 6/83 6/84 6/85 6/86 6/87 6/88 6/89 6/90 6/91 6/92 6/93 6/94 6/95 6/96 6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00 6/01 6/02 6/03 6/04 6/05 6/06 6/07 6/08 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15

itself83% more, to be exact, as you *

can see from the table to the right. On PERFORMANCE (THROUGH 1/31/16)
a risk-adjusted basis over these 30 years, Lifetime* 1 yr 3 yrs 5 yrs 8 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs
% GAIN/LOSS**
therefore, it moderately lags the stock Letters Average +3,364.1( 12.1) -25.5 -2.6(-0.9) -4.9(-1.0) -24.5(-3.5) -37.8(-4.6) -12.8(-0.9)
market. Wilshire 5000 +2,212.1( 10.6) -2.1 +35.4(10.6) +63.7(10.4) +68.0(6.7) +86.3(6.4) +106.2( 4.9)
Navelliers stock-picking strategy is, in ADJUSTED FOR RISK***

Letters Average +0.12 -0.41 +0.02 +0.02 0.00 -0.03 +0.01

essence, to favor those stocks that have
Wilshire 5000 +0.15 -0.03 +0.28 +0.25 +0.13 +0.12 +0.09
exhibited the highest recent return with *Over entire period tracked by HFD. **Annualized equivalents are shown in parentheses.
the least amount of volatility. In his re- ***Average monthly % performance per unit of risk. The higher the number, the better.

search, Navellier has reported that such

an approach historically has worked
the best among the smallest-cap issues.
So in the first years of the newsletters
publication, it focused primarily on this
sector of the stock market. However, as
Navelliers reputation grew, along with
the number of investors following his
strategy, it became increasingly difficult
for him to sustain the impressive returns
that his strategy had produced when it
was less widely followed.
In response, Navellier gradually
shifted this newsletters focus away from
the small-cap and micro-cap sectors to-
ward the mid-cap sector. An additional
response was to create an alternate news-
letter that focuses on the large-cap sec-
torentitled Louis Navelliers Blue Chip
Growth. Since 1998, which is when the
HFD began tracking this newer service,
it has handily outperformed his Emerg-
ing Growth newsletter.
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS1/31/16 (AVERAGE OF ALL PORTFOLIOS)
Composition: Long: 100%
Number Of Securities Held: 37
Avg. Holding Period of Current Positions: 200 days
Volatility vs Wilshire last 12 Months: 41% more
Over entire period followed: 83% more
Largest 12-Month Loss: -57.8% (vs. -43.3% for Wilshire)
Louis Navellier Subscription: $995/year
700 Indian Springs Drive Frequency: Monthly
Lancaster, PA 17601 Hotline? Yes
800-861-5968 Manages money? Yes
navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/emerging Investment focus: Stocks
service@Navellieremerging.com HFD data since: 12/31/1984
No market timing according to the HFDs calculations, in
Navellier does not engage in any explicit contrast to just a 37.2% loss for the
stock market timing. To be sure, he at- Wilshire 5000.
tempts to increase or decrease the aver- The lesson to draw: Navelliers system
age beta (riskiness) of his recommended cant promise to make money in a bear
stocks as perceived stock market risk market. Insofar as his system will work
changes. Nevertheless, its a good bet in the future, it most likely will be over
that Navelliers advice will be a big loser an entire cycle. You thus need to be
during a bear market. During calendar prepared to invest for at least that time
year 2008, his newsletter lost 57.2%, horizon before following his newsletter.
 HFD 7

Scoreboard for Mutual Fund Newsletters

The rankings below show which mutual fund newsletters (or fund portfolios from non-mutual-fund newsletters)
About HFD
have performed the best. A newsletters ranking is based on an average of its fund portfolios in the event it recom-
mends several. These scoreboards follow the same format as those on page 8.

15 YEARS (28 newsletters tracked) The Hulbert Financial Digest

RISK-ADJUSTED RANKING UNADJUSTED
(ISSN: 10424261) is pub-
RANK RATING NEWSLETTER RISK GAIN RANK DATA BEGAN lished monthly by The Hul-
1 0.19 InvesTech Research Portfolio Strategy 73.8 8.7% 1 1986 bert Financial Digest Inc.,
2 0.18 No-Load Mutual Fund Sel. & Timing 33.6 4.6% 14 1990 8001 Braddock Road #107,
3 0.15 Bob Brinkers Marketimer 78.1 7.1% 2 1987
Springfield, VA 22151. The
4 0.13 Fidelity Monitor & Insight 82.0 6.7% 5 1987
5 0.13 No-Load Fund Investor 71.7 5.8% 10 1986 HFD is a service of Market-
6 0.12 Independent Adviser for Vanguard Invs. 81.8 6.1% 7 1992 watch, Inc. An introductory
7 0.12 Moneyletter 83.2 6.0% 9 1987 subscription (for first-time
BENCHMARKS subscribers only, via e-mail)
0.09 Wilshire 5000 Total Return 100.0 4.9%
is $59; the regular price is
0.00 T-Bill Portfolio 3.1 1.4%
$89 per year.
10 YEARS (43 newsletters tracked) Subscription-related
RISK-ADJUSTED RANKING UNADJUSTED questions should be directed
RANK RATING NEWSLETTER RISK GAIN RANK DATA BEGAN to 1-888-HULBERT or, via
1 0.19 The Sector GPS 72.2 8.3% 1 2003 e-mail, to orders@market-
2 0.19 Brinker Fixed Income Advisor 34.9 4.6% 18 2005
watch.com
3 0.18 No-Load Mutual Fund Sel. & Timing 35.5 4.5% 22 1990
4 0.15 InvesTech Research Portfolio Strategy 75.8 6.8% 2 1986
Mark Hulbert, Editor;
5 0.13 Independent Adviser for Vanguard Invs. 85.2 6.4% 4 1992 John Kimble, Chief Portfo-
6 0.12 Bob Brinkers Marketimer 87.5 6.1% 5 1987 lio Analyst; James Sterns,
7 0.12 The Outlook 62.4 4.8% 16 1999 Portfolio Analyst; Alycia
BENCHMARKS
Fulgencio, Portfolio Analyst;
0.12 Wilshire 5000 Total Return 100.0 6.4%
0.00 T-Bill Portfolio 3.3 1.1%
William Bradley, Portfolio
Analyst. (Copyright 2016
5 YEARS (47 newsletters tracked) by The Hulbert Financial Di-
RISK-ADJUSTED RANKING UNADJUSTED gest, Inc.) The HFD is based
RANK RATING NEWSLETTER RISK GAIN RANK DATA BEGAN on information and research
1 0.35 The Sector GPS 89.0 13.3% 1 2003 believed to be reliable, but
2 0.26 Independent Adviser for Vanguard Invs. 84.8 9.2% 4 1992
3 0.24 Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy & Mngmnt 52.4 5.4% 19 1983
its accuracy cannot be guar-
4 0.24 Richard E. Bands Profitable Investing 59.8 6.0% 16 1994 anteed. The HFD, its editors,
5 0.24 Fidelity Monitor & Insight 82.9 8.2% 6 1987 and its writers cannot be
6 0.24 Fidelity Investor 87.9 8.6% 5 1999 responsible for errors and
7 0.23 ETF Selections & Timing 32.3 3.2% 29 2010 omissions.
BENCHMARKS
0.25 Wilshire 5000 Total Return 100.0 10.4%
The HFDs purpose is
0.00 T-Bill Portfolio 0.1 0.1% to provide objective per-
formance data on various
investment strategies. The
HFD is not affiliated with
Market exposure among market timers any of the investment letters
The following reports the average percentage mar- it rates; nor does the HFD
ket exposure as of 1/31/16 among market timers STOCKS 73% 37% endorse the use of its name
in the stock, gold and bond markets. Please note:
in advertising. The HFD cau-
Each markets reading is independent of the others;
there is no expectation that they add up to 100%.
GOLD 0% 30% tions readers to be skeptical
BONDS 100% 44% of editors characterizations
GREEN number indicates the average among those
who have beaten a buy-and-hold over the last ten of their HFD ratings, as we
years on a risk-adjusted basis. cannot police such use.
BLUE number indicates the average among all
timers the HFD follows.
Overall Performance Scoreboard MOST POPULAR STOCKS
CURRENTLY OWNED BY MOST LETTERS
The rankings below show which newsletters that the HFD follows have performed the best, on both a total return and
a risk-adjusted basis, over various lengths of time through January 31, 2016. (Page 7 contains a special ranking of just 1 5 10 Apple (AAPL)(28)
mutual fund letters and portfolios.) A letters ranking is based on an average of its several portfolios in the event it 1 10 AT&T (T)(17)
recommends more than one (including any the letters may have discontinued). 10 Facebook (FB)(17)
5 Wells Fargo (WFC)(17)
10 Gilead Sciences (GILD)(16)
20 YEARS (57 newsletters tracked) 1 IBM (IBM)(16)
RISK-ADJUSTED RANKING UNADJUSTED 15 Microsoft (MSFT)(15)
RANK RATING NEWSLETTER RISK GAIN RANK DATA BEGAN 1 Qualcomm (QCOM)(15)
1 0.20 No-Load Mutual Fund Sel. & Timing 38.1 6.5% 26 1990 5 Home Depot (HD)(14)
2 0.18 Utility Forecaster 67.6 8.6% 11 1993 1 5 10 Pfizer (PFE)(14)
3 0.17 The Investment Reporter 114.3 12.1% 2 1984 1 10 Verizon (VZ)(14)
4 0.17 Bob Brinkers Marketimer 77.6 8.9% 8 1987
5 0.16 No-Load FundX 104.6 10.8% 4 1980
6 0.16 Investor Advisory Service 114.6 11.1% 3 1996
7 0.16 Investment Quality Trends 90.5 9.5% 6 1986
BENCHMARKS
0.12 Wilshire 5000 Total Return 100.0 7.8% LEAST POPULAR STOCKS
MOST SHORTED, OR MOST DOWN-
0.00 T-Bill Portfolio 3.9 2.3%
GRADED, OVER LAST MONTH

10 YEARS (115 newsletters tracked) 1 5 10 Apple (AAPL)(5)

5 10 Electronic Arts (EA)(5)
RISK-ADJUSTED RANKING UNADJUSTED
RANK RATING NEWSLETTER RISK GAIN RANK DATA BEGAN First Trust DJ Internet (FDN)(4)
1 0.25 Utility Forecaster 59.5 8.8% 8 1993 5 10 Under Armour (UA)(4)
2 0.21 Morningstar Dividend Investor 81.3 9.8% 5 2005 Alphabet (GOOGL)(3)
3 0.19 The Sector GPS 72.2 8.3% 11 2003 5 10 Amazon (AMZN)(3)
4 0.19 Brinker Fixed Income Advisor 34.9 4.6% 49 2005 5 10 Disney (DIS)(3)
5 0.18 No-Load Mutual Fund Sel. & Timing 35.5 4.5% 52 1990 General Electric (GE)(3)
6 0.18 Morningstar StockInvestor 90.8 9.0% 7 2000 5 10 Gilead Sciences (GILD)(3)
7 0.17 Motley Fool Inside Value 113.8 10.5% 4 2004
Kraft Heinz (KHC)(3)
BENCHMARKS
SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY)(3)
0.12 Wilshire 5000 Total Return 100.0 6.4%
0.00 T-Bill Portfolio 3.3 1.1%

5 YEARS (138 newsletters tracked)

RISK-ADJUSTED RANKING UNADJUSTED
RANK RATING NEWSLETTER RISK GAIN RANK DATA BEGAN
MOST POPULAR FUNDS
1 0.40 Morningstar Dividend Investor 75.7 13.2% 9 2005 CURRENTLY OWNED BY MOST LETTERS
2 0.36 The Christian Value Investor 84.7 13.0% 11 2010
1 Vang. Div. Growth (VDIGX)(11)
3 0.35 Louis Navelliers Blue Chip Growth 100.1 15.1% 4 1998
DoubleLine TR Bond (DLTNX)(8)
4 0.35 The Sector GPS 89.0 13.3% 8 2003
1 Vang. ST Inv. Grade (VFSTX)(8)
5 0.32 Utility Forecaster 57.6 7.9% 38 1993
6 0.31 Morningstar StockInvestor 91.0 12.1% 13 2000 1 Vang. Wellesley Income (VWINX)(8)
7 0.30 Motley Fool Inside Value 109.7 14.1% 6 2004 Vang. Selected Value (VASVX)(7)
BENCHMARKS 1 Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX)(6)
0.25 Wilshire 5000 Total Return 100.0 10.4% PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX)(6)
0.00 T-Bill Portfolio 0.1 0.1% 1 Vang. Hi Yield Corporate (VWEHX)(6)
Vanguard REIT Index (VGSIX)(6)

Glossary
Risk-Adjusted RankThis reports what the letters rank
would be if all were ranked on a risk-adjusted basis.
Risk-Adjusted RatingMonthly performance per unit
of risk, calculated using the Sharpe Ratio. Other things
being equal, a higher number here is preferable.
RiskRisk, as measured by volatility. All letters risk
levels are normalized so that the risk level of the
Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index becomes 100. Thus, a
risk level above 100 means the letter was riskier than
the Wilshire 5000. A lower number is preferable.
Unadjusted GainThe newsletters total return (an-
nualized), before adjusting for risk.
Unadjusted RankThe newsletters rank when ranked
on basis of performance before risk adjustment.
Data BeganThe year HFD began monitoring this
newsletters performance.
KEY
1 Ranks in top ten among those letters
beating market over trailing 1 year
5 Ranks in top ten among those letters
beating market over the last 5 years
10 Ranks in top ten among those letters
beating market over the last 10 years