M

E M O R A N D U M

To: Interested Parties
From: Jill Normington
Date: July 26, 2017

The following is a summary of findings from a live interview telephone survey conducted among 600 likely voters in Illinois on behalf of the Democratic
Governors Association. Respondents were reached on both landlines and mobile phones. Interviews were conducted July 18-20, 2017. The sampling
error for this survey is 4%. There are references to a poll conducted January 3-5, 2017 with the same sample size and methodology.

Incumbent Republican Governor Bruce Rauner remains extremely vulnerable with every measure of his political
support below 40%.
Rauners veto of the budget has worsened his standing with voters.
o His favorable rating has declined since January, dropping from an already meager 33%-44% to 33%-48%.
o His job rating as governor is also lower, falling from 36%-58% to 34%-63%.
o Against a generic Democrat, Rauner trails 37% to 49%, a wider margin than the 35%-45% deficit we
measured in January.
Rauners job rating on the state budget is a devastating 29%-65%, with a majority (50%) saying Rauner has
done a poor job on that issue.

Governor Rauner Job Rating
80% Excellent Good Poor Not so good

63%
60%
58%
22%
24%
40% 36% 34%

20% 31% 26% 41%

34%

0% 5% 8%
January 2017 July 2017


Not only do the common measures of political strength show weakness, but under the surface there are signs of
significant trouble for Rauners re-election chances. Since January, the percentage of voters who rate the job he is doing
as governor as not so good or poor has increased from 58% to 63% (+5) across the Prairie State. In what should be
alarming for Rauner supporters, Rauners negative job rating stands at 61% and has increased 10 points among white
voters age 60 and older since January (61% negative, +10). Rauner has seen negative increases in other key demographic
and geographic groups including in the Chicago media market (68% negative, +8), among Independents (65% negative,
+8) and in the Collars (54% negative, +4).

Rauner is not just losing ground with those critical constituencies, but there are signs that Rauners low standing among
his own partisans combined with the intensity of dislike from Democrats could create a disproportionate turnout scenario
that further damages his re-election chances. Democrats rate the job Rauner is doing as governor at 8%-89%, with 66%
saying he is doing a poor job. That level of intensity among Democrats is met with tepid support from Republicans who
give him a job rating of 68%-29%, with just 17% saying he is doing an excellent job. That is a nearly 4 to 1 ratio of hate
to love. These kinds of ratings create a plausible scenario of unenthused Republicans staying home and angry Democrats
coming out in larger than expected numbers, which results in a wave across Illinois that will affect every candidate in
2018. Rauner is on track to be an albatross around the neck of GOP candidates up and down the ballot.

1100 H STREET NW SUITE 900 WASHINGTON, DC 20005 JILL@NORMINGTONPETTS.COM