Saharan Livelihoods:

Development and Conflict

!

Saverio(Krtli,(Jeremy(Swift,(and(Annabelle(Powell(

Sahara(Knowledge(Exchange (

World(Bank(

December(2014(

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This!paper!is!part!of!the!Sahara!Knowledge!Exchange.!The!Fragility,!Conflict!and!Violence!Group!is!
undertaking!this!exchange!to!better!understand!the!linkages!between!security,!governance,!and!
development!in!the!Sahara!and!explore!how!a!stronger!focus!on!development!can!improve!regional!
stability.!It!brings!together!World!Bank!staff!working!in!the!Africa!and!Middle!East!and!North!Africa!
(MENA)!regions!with,!inter!alia,!experts!from!academia,!think!tanks,!and!development!agencies.!This!
process!includes!a!number!of!papers!and!events!that!we!hope!will!inform!the!Banks!engagement!
with!its!partners!in!this!volatile!and!important!region.!!
!

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Table(of(Contents(

Abbreviations(.........................................................................................................(3!
Executive(Summary(................................................................................................(4!
Livelihood(strategies(......................................................................................................(4!
Livestock:!a!crossNcutting!production!strategy!.................................................................!4!
Livestock!ownership!and!changing!strategies!..................................................................!4!
Trade!and!livelihoods!.......................................................................................................!5!
Oasis!agriculture!...............................................................................................................!5!
Tourism!.............................................................................................................................!5!
Engaging(with(Saharan(livelihood(strategies(..................................................................(5!
Fragile(states,(insecure(livelihoods,(and(conflict(.............................................................(6!
Conclusions(and(recommendations(................................................................................(7!
Knowledge!gaps!................................................................................................................!7!
Recommendations!............................................................................................................!8!
Background(and(Objectives(..................................................................................(10!
An(environment(characterized(by(discontinuity(...........................................................(13!
Livelihood(Strategies(............................................................................................(14!
Livestock:(A(crossTcutting(production(strategy(.............................................................(16!
Northern!Saharan!mountains!and!plains!pastoralism!....................................................!17!
Camel!pastoralism!..........................................................................................................!17!
Cattle!pastoralism!of!the!Saharan/Sahelian!borders!......................................................!17!
Livestock(ownership(and(changing(strategies(...............................................................(17!
Trade(and(livelihoods(...................................................................................................(19!
Tourism(.......................................................................................................................(23!
Engaging(with(Saharan(Livelihood(Strategies(........................................................(24!
Fragile(States,(Insecure(Livelihoods,(and(Conflict(..................................................(26!
Political(failure(.............................................................................................................(27!
Economic(failure(..........................................................................................................(28!
Failure(to(establish(the(rule(of(law(...............................................................................(28!
Failure(to(control(extremist(forces(...............................................................................(29!
Failure(to(learn(............................................................................................................(30!
Conclusions(and(Recommendations(.....................................................................(33!
Connectivity(and(antifragility(.......................................................................................(33!
Knowledge(gaps(...........................................................................................................(34!
Recommendations(.......................................................................................................(35!
1.!Resolve!outstanding!political!issues!...........................................................................!35!
2.!Explore!devolution!as!an!institutional!form!for!greater!autonomy!............................!35!
3.!Make!real!progress!with!the!new!model!of!pastoral!development!...........................!35!
4.!Explore!new!ways!of!managing!international!frontiers!..............................................!36!
5.!Update!information!systems!to!a!new!understanding!of!pastoralism!.......................!37!
6.!Recognize!the!full!impact!of!past!interventions!.........................................................!37!
7.!Prepare!for!tourism!....................................................................................................!37!
References(...........................................................................................................(38!
!
(

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Abbreviations(
!
AQIM!! ! alNQaeda!in!the!Islamic!Maghreb!!

CCSD! ! Center!on!Conflict,!Security!and!Development!!

GSPC! ! Salafist!Group!for!Preaching!and!Combat!

NGO! ! nongovernmental!organization!!

ORM! ! Office!Riz!Mopti!!

ODEM! ! Opration!de!Dveloppement!de!lElevage!dans!la!rgion!de!Mopti!(ODEM)!

PSPSD!! ! Programme!Spcial!pour!la!Paix,!la!Scurit!et!le!Dveloppement!!

TSCTP! ! TransNSaharan!Counter!Terrorism!Partnership!

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Executive(Summary((
This!paper!is!part!of!a!scoping!exercise.!Focusing!on!livelihoods,!especially!pastoral!ones,!we!
analyze!key!drivers!of!conflict!and!critical!areas!of!socioeconomic!potential,!with!the!aim!of!
identifying!operational!implications!for!the!World!Bank!and!highlighting!areas!where!further!
research!is!needed.!

Our!analysis!is!based!on!the!combination!of!a!resilience!perspective!with!the!two!concepts!
of!connectivity!and!antifragility.!Connectivity!can!be!useful!in!analysis!regarding!the!Sahara
Sahel!complex;!in!contexts!dominated!by!discontinuity,!relationships!are!more!characterizing!
and! meaningful! than! location.! Antifragility! relates! closely! to! the! concept! of! resilience! but!
highlights!the!capacity!to1benefit1from1shock,!as!distinct!from!the!capacity!to!absorb1shock.!
Antifragility! rests! on! optionality.! In! contexts! dominated! by! discontinuity,! optionality1 is1 a1
substitute1 for1 knowledge.! Livelihood! systems! developed! to! exploit! discontinuity! (that! is,!
antifragile!systems!like!pastoral!systems)!may!be!harmed!by!lack!of!optionality,!starting!from!
the!lack!of!volatility!or!stressors.!!

Livelihood(strategies(
The! Sahara! is! first! and! foremost! a! place! where! people! live.! Transformation! has! sharply!
accelerated!in!recent!years.!This!new!Sahara!is!described!as!perhaps!the!fastest!changing,!
most! dynamic,! and! wealthiest! region! of! the! African! continent! (McDougall! and! Scheele,!
2012,!p.!7).!The!main!economic!opportunities!are!livestock,!trade,!and!the!emerging!services!
economy,!oasis!agriculture,!and!tourism.!!

Livestock:(a(crossTcutting(production(strategy(
Raising! livestock! remains! the! most! widespread! livelihood! strategy! in! the! Sahara! and!
neighboring!areas.!Virtually!everyone!invests!in!livestock,!including!people!who!live!in!towns.!
Most!of!these!animals!are!entrusted!to!family!members!or!looked!after!by!waged!herders.!
TransNSaharan! livestock! smuggling! and! absentee! owners! from! the! Maghreb! also! employ!
Saharan!herders.!!

Livestock(ownership(and(changing(strategies((
Following! the! droughts! of! the! 1970s! and! 1980s,! a! significant! part! of! the! local! livestock!
passed!into!the!hands!of!sedentary!outsiders.!Losses!were!directly!linked!to!lack!of!mobility,!
and! those! producers! who! were! still! in! a! position! to! pursue! mobile! strategies! suffered!
significantly! less.! Even! so,! the! transfer! of! assets! was! generally! understood! within! a!
development! trajectory! as! pastoralism! giving! way! to! more! modern! and! more! effective!
economies.! Pastoralism! has! historically! been! the! main! source! of! optionality! in! the! Sahara,!
securing!sufficient!economic!autonomy!to!give!flexibility!and!negotiating!power!with!regard!
to! complementary! livelihood! strategies.! The! loss! of! large! parts! of! the! pastoral! systems! to!
outside! players! represents! a! systemic! fragilization! that! has! important! consequences! well!
beyond!the!pastoral!economy!as!such.!!

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Trade(and(livelihoods(
In! the! Sahara,! legal! and! illegal! trade! often! overlap.! Along! trade! routes,! small! nodes! of!
corrupt! activity! have! emerged! to! facilitate! this! trade.! Trading! itself! is! a! way! of! exploiting!
discontinuity!(in!spatial!differences!of!price).!Control!of!trade,!especially!transNSaharan!trade,!
is!also!being!lost!to!outsiders.!!

Oasis(agriculture(
Traditional!oasis!agriculture!has!been!built!on!a!symbiotic!relationship!with!mobile!livestock!
systems.!Traditional!oases!persist!where!either!water!or!capital!are!not!scarce,!and!tend!to!
decline! where! both! water! and! capital! are! scarce.! A! shift! from! cereals! to! fodder! crops! is!
common.! Production! is! increased! through! the! introduction! of! new! waterNextraction!
technologies!(vertical!intensification)!or!by!cultivation!of!new!areas!of!desert!(horizontal!
intensification).!!

Tourism(
The! Sahara! has! three! potential! worldNclass! tourist! attractions:! (i)! unique! landscapes;! (ii)!
unique!fauna;!and!(iii)!a!huge!display!of!rock!art!dating!from!different!periods.!Tourism!can!
be!an!important!potential!source!of!income!and!should!stay!on!the!list!of!possible!sectors!for!
future!diversification. !

Engaging(with(Saharan(livelihood(strategies(
Saharan!livelihood!systems!have!been!placed!under!unprecedented!pressure!by!the!loss!of!
control! over! part! of! the! pastoral! economy! and! by! levels! of! inNmigration! that! dwarf! the!
experience!of!industrialised!countries.!Livelihood!systems!have!diversified.!What!is!lacking!is!
innovation!in!planning.!The!challenge!is!to!let!go!of!the!tradition!of!ordering!and!engage!
with! the! local! logic! of! connectivity! and! optionality,! supporting! and! accompanying! it! in! the!
directions! that! can! be! more! widely! shared! as! desirable.! This! starts! from! helping! Saharan!
peoples!to!reconsolidate!their!responsibility!over!the!territory!and!their!management!of!the!
pastoral!systems.

An! example! relates! to! border! security.! International! borders! in! the! Sahara! challenge! the!
ability! of! states! to! stop! illegal! traffic! or! the! movement! of! kidnappers! and! jihadists.! The!
problem!is!the!size!of!such!borders:!Malis!desert!frontier,!for!example,!runs!for!nearly!4,000!
kilometers!(with!Mauritania,!Algeria,!and!Niger).!The!other!Saharan!states!have!scarcely!less.!
New!technologies!will!help,!but!the!most!important!work!has!to!be!done!on!the!ground.!The!
best! (and! possibly! only)! solution! is! to! have! ordinary! pastoralists! live! and! work! in! all! the!
accessible!border!regions!(not!just!in!towns),!so!there!are!no!empty!spaces!easily!penetrable!
by! undesirable! players.! Saharan! communities,! in! their! entirety,! could! become! responsible!
agents!in!a!modern!experiment!in!assisted!diffused!governance.!

Another! example! concerns! the! reintroduction! of! the! endemic! mammalian! fauna! (a! major!
conservation!goal!once!peace!is!restored),!the!safeguard!of!prehistoric!Saharan!rock!art,!and!
the! need! to! monitor! desert! locusts.! A! cadre! of! mobile! desertNranger! pastoralists! would!

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earn! social! ownership! to! these! challenging! undertakings,! making! them! both! more! feasible!
and!more!sustainable.!!

Fragile(states,(insecure(livelihoods,(and(conflict((
Like! everything! else! in! the! Sahara,! insecurity! reflects! the! rule! of! discontinuity! and! the!
networks! of! connectivity! that! comprise! the! regions! fabric! of! economic! and! political! life.!
Common! explanations! of! conflict! based! on! competition! for! resources! are! locked! into! the!
static! view! of! resources! as! things.! In! contexts! dominated! by! discontinuity,! the! most!
important!livelihood!resource!is!optionalitynot!a!thing!but!a!relationshipa!resource!
that! can! be! lost! under! particular! circumstances! but! that! is! inherently! renewable.! A! static!
perspective! on! insecurity! (for! example,! a! focus! on! fragile! states! as! isolated! drivers! of!
insecurity)!falls!short!of!capturing!its!key!relational!dimension.!

Present! conflicts! in! the! Sahara! are! largely! the! result! of! the! failure! of! states! to! deal!
adequately! with! the! problems! of! the! incorporation! of! pastoral! and! other! marginal!
populations!into!the!modern!state;!the!uncertainty!to!which!this!gives!rise;!and!the!way!drug!
smuggling,! jihadism,! kidnapping! for! ransom,! and! other! activities! have! been! used! in! the!
creation!of!an!agenda!not!related!to!the!concerns!of!Saharan!residents.!This!failure!has!five!
interrelated! components:! political! failure;! economic! failure;! failure! to! establish! the! rule! of!
law!and!prevent!criminal!activities;!failure!to!control!extremist!Islamic!forces;!and!failure!to!
learn,!and!especially!to!recognize!the!effects!of!the!long!history!of!illNadvised!interventions,!
and!to!make!clear!what!the!options!are.!!

1. Political(failure(

Saharan!states!have!been!unable!to!effectively!deal!with!the!legitimate!political!grievances!
of!minority!populations,!especially!pastoralists.!Most!of!these!grievances!are!longNstanding,!
dating! from! the! colonization! and! decolonization! processes.! Official! attitudes! and! practical!
discrimination!have!created!an!atmosphere!of!marginalization!and!repression.!Donors!have!
not! paid! attention! to! this! problem.! In! the! long! run,! these! local! political! conflicts! are! more!
important! and! more! deeply! rooted! than! the! incursions! by! jihadists.! The! latter! conflict!
certainly!cannot!be!solved!before!the!former.!!

2. Economic(failure(

Some! Saharan! and! Sahelian! states! have! failed! to! provide! even! a! minimum! of! social! and!
economic!development.!They!have!tolerated!massive!famines;!been!party!to!the!growth!of!
systemic! corruption! in! public! affairs;! and! witnessed! a! continuous! increase! in! poverty! in!
marginal! areas.! Development! programs! aimed! at! stabilizing! the! production! environment!
have!succeeded!only!in!eroding!the!sources!of!optionality!for!local!producers.!As!pastoralism!
receded,!optionality!for!Saharan!producers!decreased!even!further,!and!livelihoods!became!
more!dependent!on!onceNcomplementary!forms!of!illegal!trade.!

3. Failure(to(establish(the(rule(of(law(

The! loss! of! optionality! within! local! livelihood! systems! continues! to! favor! nonNSaharan!
playersfrom! corrupt! state! officers! who! thrive! on! the! smuggling! economy,! to! malevolent!

! 6!
nonstate! actors! who! seize! the! support! of! citizens! who! have! long! lost! their! trust! in! the!
credibility!or!even!legitimacy!of!official!institutions!for!governance!and!development.!!

4. Failure(to(control(extremist(forces(

Political! and! economic! failure! led! to! the! expansion! of! extremist! Islamic! forces.! By! allowing!
northern! Mali! to! develop! into! a! lawless! entity,! the! Malian! state! failed! in! its! most!
fundamental! obligation:! to! protect! the! integrity! of! the! state! and! the! safety! of! its! citizens.!
Before!the!brief!war,!alNQaeda!in!the!Islamic!Maghreb!(AQIM)!had!in!places!substituted!for!
the! state! and! earned! some! support! in! northern! Mali! by! providing! basic! services.! But! the!
experience! of! a! short! period! of! AQIM! rule! in! Timbuktu! is! believed! to! have! disposed! most!
people!against!a!repeat!of!the!experience.!!

5. Failure(to(learn(

The! recent! reversal! in! the! theory! and! policy! of! pastoral! development! implies! that,! overall,!
past! interventions! were! illNconceived! (see! Box! 1).! Today,! the! intended! and! unintended!
effects! are! a! constitutive! part! of! the! regions! current! problems,! but! fundamental! legacy! is!
rarely! recognized.! Global! narratives! continue! to! describe! local! livelihood! strategies! as!
traditional,! and! frame! the! Mali/Algeria! situation! as! a! humanitarian! crisis! triggered! by!
largely!ecological!factors,!which!downplays!the!role!of!governance!and!ignores!development!
history!altogether.!This!can!only!exacerbate!local!frustration!and!benefit!those!players!who!
thrive!on!resentment!against!central!governments!as!agents!of!globalization.!

Conclusions(and(recommendations(
This! chapter! highlights! lessons! offered! by! the! use! of! the! lenses! of! connectivity! and!
antifragility.!What!different!views!does!this!framework!allow?!The!rule!of!thumb!seems!to!
be! that! Saharan! livelihoods! should! be! supported! with! interventions! that! strengthen! their!
capacity! for! connectivity! and! optionality,! and! that! they! are! made! more! fragile! by!
interventions!that!weaken!their!capacity!for!connectivity!and!reduce!their!optionality.!!

Knowledge(gaps(
The! new! state! of! insecurity! has! strong! implications! for! the! Sahara! and! North! Africa,! but!
there!are!substantial!gaps!in!our!knowledge!about!how!this!works.!The!following!areas!are!in!
need!of!urgent!research!and!debate:!

how!Saharan!pastoral!livelihood!systems!function;!
unresolved!political!grievances!and!roots!of!conflict!within!and!between!states;!!
potential!institutional!structures!for!devolved!governance;!
roles!for!government!in!pastoral!livelihood!systems!of!the!Sahara!and!Sahel;!
the! potential! role! of! pastoralists! as! a! first! line! of! defense! of! state! borders! in! the!
Sahara;!and!!
the! development! of! Saharan! tourism! in! forms! that! maximize! benefits! to! local!
people.!

! 7!
Recommendations(
1.!Resolve1outstanding1political1issues.!The!most!urgent!issue!of!these!are!political.!No!other!
problems!will!be!alleviated!without!resolving!the!status!and!rights!of!minority!populations!in!
Saharan!countries.!!

2.!Explore1devolution1as1an1institutional1form1for1greater1autonomy.!Devolution!goes!much!
further!than!decentralization!and!may!provide!some!countries!with!answers!for!how!to!solve!
pastoral! grievances.! The! World! Bank! should! open! a! debate! about! levels! of! devolution!
appropriate!to!Saharan!and!Sahelian!conditions.!!

3.! Make1 real1 progress1 with1 pastoral1 development.! Countries! need! to! make! real! progress!
within!the!new!model!of!pastoral!development.!This!should!include!the!following!steps.!1

i. Encouraging! mobility,! including! crossNborder! movement! where! appropriate,! as!

an!essential!technique!of!pastoral!land!use,!key!to!the!successful!exploitation!of!
discontinuities.!Mobility!is!also!one!of!the!most!important!characteristics!of!the!
Saharas!connectivityNbased!antifragile!economies.!!
!
ii. Developing!and!securing!forms!of!tenure!that!serve!the!way!the!land!is!used!by!
production/livelihood!systems!operating!with!discontinuity.!
!
iii. Exploring!risk!management!measures!for!pastoral!livelihoods,!and!more!broadly,!
Saharan! livelihoods,! which! respond! to! need! but! do! not! interfere! with! the!
strategies!of!connectivity!and!optionality.!
!
iv. Providing!services,!especially!education,!in!forms!that!are!both!suitable!for!the!
scattered! and! partly! mobile! population! of! the! Sahara! and! its! edges,! and! of!
similar! quality! and! status! as! conventional! delivery! systems! designed! for!
sedentary!population.!

Complementary!forms!of!local!livelihood,!such!as!pastoralists!doubling!as!desert!rangers,!
need!to!be!researched!and!tested.!Recapitalization!will!be!an!enormous!but!essential!task,!
both!in!the!areas!where!infrastructure!was!destroyed!during!fighting!and!in!the!areas!where!
some!of!todays!essential!infrastructure!never!reached!(such!as!mobile!phone!networks!and!
Internet! access).! This! is! also! an! opportunity! to! make! the! new! generation! of! infrastructure!
more!pertinent!to!the!Saharan!operational!logic!of!connectivity!and!antifragility!than!it!was!
in!the!past.!

4.!Explore1new1ways1of1managing1international1frontiers.!A!key!innovation!is!to!define!how!
frontiers! could! be! managed! more! successfully! in! ways! that! are! more! pertinent! to! the!
particularity! of! the! Sahara,! for! example,! through! forms! of! diffused! governance! that! also!
increase!options!for!local!livelihood.!The!pastoral!communities!of!the!Sahara!should!have!a!
key!role!in!monitoring!the!territory!and!assist!the!state!in!its!duty!to!control!forces!hostile!to!
law!and!order.!!

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5.! Update1 information1 systems.! Statistical! data! on! livestock! systems! in! and! around! the!
Sahara! are! few! and! unreliable.! The! analytic! tools! and! processes! of! appraisal! have! not! yet!
caught!up!to!the!theoretical!shift!in!pastoral!development.!It!should!be!a!priority!to!conduct!
research! and! collect! statistical! data! that! is! informed! by! the! new! understanding! of!
pastoralism! and! concerned! with! the! challenge! of! developing! and! adapting! the! toolbox! to!
generate!representative!data!in!contexts!dominated!by!discontinuity.!!

6.! Recognize1 the1 full1 impact1 of1 past1 interventions.! The! recent! reversal! in! theory! and! policy!
regarding!drylands!and!pastoral!development!implies!that,!overall,!past!interventions!in!the!
SaharaSahel!regions!have!often!been!in!the!wrong!directionwith!consequences!that!have!
yet! to! be! systematically! analyzed.! Research! should! be! undertaken! into! how! this! legacy! of!
past!interventions!is!reflected!in!the!present!context!of!development.!

7.!!Prepare1for1tourism.!Tourism!is!potentially!a!key!economic!activity!in!the!Sahara.!There!
are! important! preliminary! activitiesincluding! inventorying! and! protecting! rock! drawings!
and!planning!the!reintroduction!of!rare!mammalian!species.!Planning!for!this!should!begin!
immediately.!

! 9!
Background(and(Objectives(
This!paper!is!a!part!of!a!broad!knowledge!exchange!exercise!that!explores!linkages!between!
security,!governance,!and!development!in!the!Sahara.!It!is!a!scoping!exercise,!one!that!is!not!
meant! to! provide! answers! but! rather! raise! issues! to! encourage! further! research! and! draw!
attention!to!a!critical!but!understudied!part!of!the!world.!

Focusing! specifically! on! livelihoods,! this! paper! analyzes! key! drivers! of! conflict! and! critical!
areas! of! socioeconomic! potential.! The! aim! is! to! identify! operational! implications! for! the!
World!Bank!and!to!highlight!areas!where!further!research!is!needed.!

This!chapter!briefly!describes!the!working!framework!and!objectives!that!inform!our!analysis!
of!the!arguments!around!economic!development,!governance,!and!security.!Our!analysis!is!
based! on! the! combination! of! a! resilience! perspective! with! two! concepts! we! find! to! be!
particularly!relevant!to!the!focus!of!our!study:!connectivity!and!antifragility.!Connectivity!is!
used!in!geography!to!describe!the!property!of!places!defined!by!their!network!of!relations!
(to!elsewhere),!more!than!by!their!physical!location.!The!notion!of!antifragility!has!recently!
been! used! to! describe! the! capacity! of! certain! systems! to! benefit! from! disorder,! gaining!
strength!from!every!stressor!that!is!below!the!breaking!point!(Taleb,!2012).!!

There!are!several!reasons!we!think!these!concepts!are!appropriate!here.!Connectivity!proves!
to! be! particularly! useful! in! analysis! concerned! with! the! SaharaSahel! complex! (Retaill,!
1986).! In! contexts! dominated! by! discontinuity,! relationships! are! more! characterizing! and!
meaningful! than! location. 1 !This! perspective! highlights! the! importance! of! exchange! and!
mobility! as! structural! (for! example,! in! power! relations! that,! rather! than! being! based! on!
territorial!control,!are!delocalized!as!social!networks!that!radiate!from!commercial!hubs).!!

Acknowledging! the! central! role! of! connectivity! in! Saharan! livelihood! networks,! and! their!
political! and! economic! links! with! the! outside,! calls! for! a! fundamental! reconsideration! of!
traditional! polarities! in! explanatory! frameworks! used! in! development:! stateNsociety,! localN
global!(see!Ferguson!and!Gupta,!2002).!When!connectivity!is!the!basis!for!livelihoodas!in!
the! case! of! the! Saharaclosing! down! networks! of! connectivity! (including! reducing! it! to! a!
lower!scale)!undermines!livelihood,!fosters!resentment,!and!may!push!livelihood!strategies!
into!the!domain!of!illegality.!!

Antifragility! (used! in! combination! with! concepts! such! as! discontinuity,! stressors,! volatility,!
asymmetry,!or!uncertainty)!relates!closely!to!the!concept!of!resilience.!However,!antifragility!
is!more!specific!in!highlighting!the!capacity!to1benefit1from1shock!as!a!feature!distinct!from!
the!capacity!to!absorb1shock!(resilience!in!the!sense!of!robustness).!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1
!See!Scheele!(2012):!A!conscientious!reading!of!historical!sources!shows!that!in!the!Sahara!survival!
inherently!depended!on!exchange!and!that!settlement!was!fragile!and!unstable![since]!life!depends!
on! exchange! []! it! makes! no! sense! to! think! of! places! in! isolation;! rather,! the! local! is! made! and!
maintained! by! regional! interaction! []! places! appear! as! nodes! of! particular! density! in! overlapping!
networks!of!connectivity!(p.!13).!

! 10!
From! a! livelihood! perspective,! the! strategies! behind! resilience/robustness! and! antifragility!
are! also! different.! While! robustness! is! based! on! control! (pursuing! flat! volatility,! uniformity!
and!stability,!predictability),!antifragility!is!based!on!optionality,!the!potential!for!options.!
In!contexts!dominated!by!discontinuity,!where!sufficient!knowledge!for!prediction!cannot!be!
secured,!optionality1is1a1substitute1for1knowledge.2!Antifragile!livelihood!systems,!which!have!
developed!to!exploit!discontinuity,!may!be!harmed!by!the!reduction!in!optionality,!volatility,!
or!stressors!that!come!with!the!stabilizing!processes!of!control!and!planning.3!Besides,!while!
resilience!and!risk!are!notoriously!difficult!to!measure,!comparative!values!of!antifragility!(or!
fragility)! can! be! calculated! by! measuring! change! in! the! availability! of! options! (Taleb! et! al.,!
2012).!!

The!lenses!of!connectivity!and!antifragility!can!help!open!up!the!horizon!for!understanding!
conflict! in! the! Sahara,! taking! into! account! the! paradigm! shift! in! the! understanding! of!
drylands!and!pastoralism!that!has!occurred!over!the!last!twenty!years!(see!Box!1).!!

An! analysis! informed! by! connectivity! and! antifragility! principles! starts!by! reconsidering! the!
logic!and!pertinence!of!historical!processes!aimed!at!increasing!order!and!stability!in!relation!
Box(1.(A(UTturn(in(the(scientific(understanding(of(drylands(and(pastoralism(
The! understanding! of! dryland! pastoral! ecosystems! has! changed! fundamentally! over! the! last!
twenty!years.!Drylands!are!now!seen!as!ecosystems!ruled!by!discontinuous!variability!rather!than!
by! a! drive! to! a! steady! state! (Ellis! and! Swift,! 1988;! Westoby! et! al.,! 1989;! Behnke! et! al.,! 1993;!
Scoones,! 1994;! Krtli! et! al.,! 2013a,! for! a! policyNoriented! overview).! This! paradigm! shift! had! farN
reaching!consequences!on!pastoral!development!theory.!
In! the! drylands,! nutrients! for! livestock! become! available! in! ephemeral! concentrations.! Optimal!
period! and! optimal! place! are! both! variables.! Therefore,! timely! access! to! pasture,! when!
nutrients! in! the! plant! are! at! their! peak,! is! key! to! profitable! herd! management! and! can! result! in!
experiencing!abundance!rather!than!scarcity!within1the1same1ecosystem.11
When! pastoral! specialization! can! be! used,! the! herds! enjoy! a! diet! that! is! higher1 in1 nutritional1
content1 than1 the1 average1 value1 of1 the1 range1 on1 which1 they1 graze1 (Breman! and! De! Wit,! 1983;!
Schareika!et!al.,!2000),!and!consequently!offer!higher!returns!than!sedentary!systems!operating!in!
the! same! environment! (Wilson! and! Clarke,! 1976;! Bernus,! 1990;! Digard! et! al.,! 1992;! Colin! de!
Verdire,! 1998).! Key! to! this! achievement! is! a! counterintuitive! approach! to! the! use! of! the!
environment;!seeking!out!and!exploiting!discontinuity!rather!than!avoiding!it.!Two!most!evident!
manifestations!of!this!strategy!consist!in!moving!the!herds!over!the!range!(discontinuous!grazing!
at! the! macro! level),! and! fostering! the! animals! capacity! for! feeding! selectively! (discontinuous!
grazing!at!the!micro!level).!1
This! new! understanding! of! pastoralism! has! made! its! way! into! policyNmaking! circles! and! is! now!
reflected! in! the! first! Pastoral! Policy1 Framework1 in1 Africa! (African! Union,! 2010),! a! number! of!
pastoral! codes! in! West! Africa! (Rpublique! Islamique! de! Mauritanie,! 2000;! Rpublique! du! Mali,!
2001;! Rpublique! du! Niger,! 2010),! the! first! drylands! development! policy! in! Kenya! (Republic! of!
Kenya,! 2012),! and! recent! international! policy! statements! such! as! the! Dclaration1 de1 NDjamna!
(2013)!and!the!Dclaration1de1Nouakchott1(2013).!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2
!Optionality! involves! trialNandNerror! processes! where! potential! gains! are! unknown! but! potential!
losses! have! a! known! limit.! With! optionality,! prior! assessment! is! not! necessary;! thus! optionality!
offers!higher!returns!than!knowledge!would!warrant!(Taleb,!2012).!
3
!A! recent! book! on! pastoralism,! markets,! and! livelihoods! opens! with! the! following! quote:! Stability,!
gentlemen,! is! the! one! thing! we! can't! deal! withattributed! to! a! Chicago! Board! of! Trade! official! in!
conversation!with!corporate!agribusiness!executives!in!the!1980s,!but!also!applicable!to!pastoralism,!
according!to!the!authors!(Gertel!and!Le!Heron,!2011,!p.!xv).!

! 11!
to! antifragile! livelihood! systems! operating! with! optionalityfor! example,! the! process! of!
reorganizing!informal!and!adaptive!customary!decision!making!about!natural!resources!into!
a! single! model! of! herders! associations;! reorganizing! nuanced! and! adaptable! livelihood!
strategies! into! rigidlyNstructured! typologies! of! producers! (see! Box! 2);! fixing! mobile! people!
and! not! recognizing! them! outside! settlement! for! administrative! purposes;! establishing!
permanent! and! exclusive! access! rights! on! a! territorial! basis;! and! flattening! complex! multiN
level! systems! of! negotiated! complementarity! into! just! one! level! of! competition.! The!
disorder!that!these!stabilizing!processes!seek!to!externalize!is!also!what!makes!antifragile!
systems! work.! By! moving! into! discontinuity! systems! with! inappropriately! narrow! and! rigid!
assumptions! about! what! constitutes! order,! stabilizing! processes! can! introduce! fragility!
rather! than! robustness,! or! even! disorder.4!If! carried! out! while! ignoring! the! peculiarity! of!
contexts! where! livelihood! depends! on! being! able! to! exploit! discontinuities,! can! such!
processes!of!stabilization!be!themselves!drivers!of!conflict?!

Beside!pastoral!systems,!the!polycentricity!and!multidirectionality!(that!is,!spatial!images!
for! optionality)! that! the! connectivity! perspective! in! geography! and! anthropology! find!
characteristic!of!the!Saharan!livelihood!systems!and!that!expand!when!pastoralism!recedes!
(for! example,! smuggling)! have! also! been! concerned! with! these! ordering! processes! (for!
example,!by!favoring!urbanNbased!actors).!!

This!consideration!shifts!us!away!from!defining!the!Sahara!by!lines!on!a!map,!for!example!by!
using! as! a! proxy! the! distribution! of! a! particular! species! of! indicator! plant! such! as! the! had!
(Cornulaca1 monacantha).! The! mobile! livelihoods! and! links! within! and! outside! the! desert!

Box(2.(Defining(pastoralism(
Theory!is!embedded!in!definitions.!With!the!recent!shift!in!pastoral!development!theory!(see!Box!
1),! the! understanding! of! what! is! relevant! in! defining! pastoralism! has! also! changed.! Received!
typologies! of! dryland! producers! (for! example,! pastoralism! and! agroNpastoralism,! nomadic!
and!sedentary)!establish!permanent!and!clearNcut!boundaries!between!production!strategies,!at!
odds! with! todays! blurred! and! dynamic! configurations! (such! a! rigidity! also! assumes! a! conflation!
between! ethnicity! and! livelihood! that! no! longer! exists).! One! exception! is! the! definition! of!
pastoralism!that!is!based!on!the!degree!of!economic!dependence!on!livestockusually!above!50!
percent!of!a!households!total!income!(Swift,!1984)but!even!in!this!case!the!current!context!of!
production!can!be!easily!misrepresented!(Krtli!and!Swift,!2014).!
In! a! context! of! great! heterogeneity,! shifting! the! definitional! focus! from! the! producers! to! the!
strategy!of!production!has!helped!find!a!common!denominator.!This!approach!has!been!used!in!
the! Kenyan! arid! and! semiNarid! lands! development! policy:! The! term! pastoralist! can! be! used! to!
indicate! a! cultural! identity! and! a! production/livelihood! system,! but! while! the! latter! implies! the!
former,! the! former! does! not! always! imply! the! latter.! As! an! economic! activity,! pastoralism! is! an!
animal! production! system,! which! takes! advantage! of! the! characteristic! instability! of! rangeland!
environments,!where!key!resources!such!as!nutrients!and!water!for!livestock!become!available!in!
shortNlived! and! largely! unpredictable! concentrations.! Crucial! aspects! of! pastoralist! specialisation!
are:!1)!the!interaction!of!people,!animals,!and!the!environment,!particularly!strategic!mobility!of!
livestock!and!selective!feeding;!and!2)!the!development!of!flexible!resource!management!systems,!
particularly! communal! land! management! institutions! and! nonNexclusive! entitlements! to! water!
resources!(Republic!of!Kenya!2012,!p.!iii).!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4
!A!point!made!with!abundance!of!evidence!by!James!Scott!in!Seeing1Like1a1State!(1989).!Scotts!book!
began!as!a!study!of!why,!historically,!governments!disliked!nomadic!peoples.!

! 12!
create!a!different!sort!of!map,!one!based!on!networks!of!institutions,!safeguards,!rules,!and!
privileges! that! organize! inhabitants! mobility.! Saharan! pastoralists! connectivity! drives! and!
regulates! their! use! of! ephemeral! pastures.! Their! ability! to! respond! positively! to! the!
challenges! of! the! Saharan! physical! environment! depends! on! these! networks! and! the!
negotiations! they! implyconversely,! in! Saharan! politics,! the! exercise! of! power! has!
historically!taken!the!form!of!denying!the!freedom!to!move!(McDougall!and!Scheele,!2012).!
Because! of! this,! the! limits! of! the! Sahara! are! highly! variable,! mobile! and! unfixed.! Its!
boundaries!expand!and!contract;!uninhabitable!landscapes!become!habitable!after!rain,!and!
social! and! political! negotiation! must! be! continuous! in! order! for! pastoralists! to! profit.!
Governance!must!adapt!to!these!dynamic!characters!of!the!place,!a!task!that!formal!modern!
governance!finds!difficult.!

McDougall!and!Scheele!(2012)!have!highlighted!two!main!perspectives!on!the!Sahara:!from!
outside!in!and!from!inside!out.!The!first!perspective!has!been!dominant,!characteristic!of!
coastal! or! synoptic! views! of! the! region! as! a! barrier! or! frontier! (sometimes! a! bridge).!
Images! of! the! Sahara! attached! to! this! perspective! are! those! of! purity! and! wilderness:! an!
empty! space! to! be! crossed,! a! nonNplace.! The! attention! to! the! transNSaharan! dimension,!
within! a! world! system! framework! characterized! by! unidirectional! economic! influences,!
belongs!here.!!

The! second! perspective,! opened! up! by! the! connectivity! approach,! sees! the! Sahara! more!
like!borderland!areas!than!a!frontier!line;!a!place,!defined!by!networks!of!exchange!with!its!
shores! (the! coastal! and! Sahelian! countries),! but! also! between! local,! polycentric,! and!
multidirectional! livelihood! systems.! The! attention! here! is! on! the! intraNSaharan! dimension.!
The!discontinuity!represented!by!the!desert!is!not!a!problem,!a!lack,!a!gap!between!real!
places.! Far! from! being! empty,! the! Sahara! supports! dense! interdependent! networks! of!
people,! plants,! and! animals,! and! is! home! to! one! of! Africas! most! dynamic! economies,! fast!
urbanization,! and! multilingualism.! Current! definitional! efforts! must! acknowledge! and!
address!both!perspectives.!

An(environment(characterized(by(discontinuity(

The! high! level! of! variability! of! the! Saharan! ecosystemwhich! makes! mobility! an! essential!
part! of! livelihood! systemscan! be! illustrated! by! a! simple! example.! Table! 1! shows! the!
variability! of! rainfall! within! the! borders! of! the! Sahara.! These! large! swings! in! rainfall! at! the!
desert!edge,!the!strong!inverse!relationship!between!the!mean!and!coefficient!of!variation,!
and!the!strong!positive!relationship!between!precipitation!and!primary!production,!illustrate!
the! problem! facing! livelihoods! in! these! regions.! Any! attempt! to! locate! the! Saharan! edge!
must! take! into! account! this! high! level! of! border! variability,! as! well! as! the! dynamics! in! the!
constitutive! networks! of! connectivity,! bringing! even! distant! places! to! local! relevance.! The!
Sahara!boundaries! should! be! expected! to! reflect! this.! Historically,! the! successful! livelihood!
systems! are! those! that! adapt! to! this! variability! in! the! external! borders! as! much! as! the!
internal!variability,!and!make!a!virtue!of!it.!!

! 13!
Table(1.(Coefficient(of(variation(of(Saharan(rainfall(

( Annual(mean((mm)( Coefficient(of(variation((%)(

Saharan(borders:!Mopti! 437! 37!

NDjamena! 507! 43!

Khartoum! 127! 52!

El!Fasher! 228! 62!

Sahara:!Nouakchott! 96! 84!

Agadez! 150! 92!

Bilma! 12! 139!

Adrar!(Algeria)! 24! 148!

Source:! Authors! calculation! from! National! Climatic! Data! Center/NESDIS/NOAA/U.S.! Department! of!
Commerce,!Harvard!College!Observatory/Harvard!University,!Meteorology!Department/Florida!State!
University,! and! Climate! Analysis! Section/Climate! and! Global! Dynamics! Division/National! Center! for!
Atmospheric!Research/University!Corporation!for!Atmospheric!Research.!1981,!updated!yearly.!World1
Monthly1Surface1Station1Climatology.!Research!Data!Archive!at!the!National!Center!for!Atmospheric!
Research,!Computational!and!Information!Systems!Laboratory.!http://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds570.0/.!
Accessed!23!May!2014.!

This!high!variability!in!precipitation!has!two!consequences!of!particular!importance.!The!first!
concerns! ephemeral! pastures.! The! plant! cover! in! the! Sahara! is! discontinuous! at! best.!
However,!following!the!occasional!rainstorm,!much!of!the!ground!is!covered!with!vegetation,!
providing!a!relatively!rare!but!rich!pasture.!This!ephemeral!but!at!times!abundant!group!of!
plants!is!able!to!survive!in!the!ground!for!long!periods,!and!then!develop!very!fast!to!take!
advantage! of! the! occasional! rain.! The! acheb! of! Chad! or! the! jizzu1 of! Darfur! are! prime!
examples!of!this!kind!of!desert!pasture.!The!second!consequence,!equally!important!from!a!
management!point!of!view,!is!the!discontinuity!of!this!resource.!Should!all!the!pasture!reach!
peak! nutritional! content! at! once,! it! would! be! impossible! to! take! full! advantage! of! it.! This!
discontinuity! is! precisely! what! the! (antifragile)! pastoral! livelihood! system! is! adapted! to!
exploit.!!

Livelihood(Strategies(
The!Sahara!is!not!just!a!space!of!transit,!but!first!and!foremost,!a!place!where!people!live.!
Although!Saharan!people!have!for!generations!altered!their!livelihood!strategies!to!adapt!to!
overwhelming! political! and! economic! forces,! the! pace! of! transformation! has! sharply!
accelerated!in!recent!years.!This!new!Sahara!is!described!by!analysts!as!perhaps!the!fastest!
changing,! most! dynamic,! and! wealthiest! region! of! the! African! continent! (McDougall! and!
Scheele,!2012,!p.!7).!Desert!centers,!ranging!from!large!towns!to!agglomerations!of!nomad!

! 14!
camps,!are!the!engine!room!of!this!economic!growth.5!In!the!new!Sahara,!these!dynamic!and!
often! ephemeral! centers! are! nodes! of! particular! density! in! overlapping! networks! of!
connectivity! (Scheele,! 2012,! p.! 13),! where! information! and! services! link! together! in! webs!
that! span! the! desert! and! reach! well! beyond! the! dry! pasturelands! at! its! edges.6 !In! this!
discussion!we!consider!mainly!pastoral!livelihoods.!

The!desert!contains!some!of!the!worlds!largest!known!resources!of!oil!and!natural!gas.!Its!
geographic! spread! between! countries! with! different! but! complementary! economies!
(including!different!patterns!of!seasonality!north!and!south!of!the!desert,!a!bonus!for!trade!
in! agricultural! products),! in! a! double! role! of! barrier! and! bridge! (combined! with! its! remote!
and!still!relatively!underNpopulated!character,!as!population!is!concentrated!in!settlements),!
offer! unique! opportunities! for! longNdistance! trade.! The! regions! extreme! environment,! on!
the! other! hand,! makes! it! substantially! dependent! on! supplies! from! the! outside! and! on!
securing!a!stable!and!fastNgrowing!internal!market.!!

Aside! from! employment! in! government! institutions! and! development! organizations! (open!
only! to! a! few),! the! main! economic! opportunities! are! livestock,! trade,! and! the! emerging!
services!economy,!oasis!agriculture,!and!tourism.!!

InNmigration!drives!rapid!demographic!growth.!Outsiders!converge!on!urban!centers,!where!
states! and! development! actors! have! historically! concentrated! their! services.! As! urban!
centers! swell! with! newcomers,! Saharan! people! are! slowly! turned! into! a! marginal!
underserved!and!underrepresented!minority!in!their!own!home.7!!

A!theme!running!throughout!the!literature!is!that!Saharans!are!losing!control!over!their!own!
space! and! resources! to! outsiders.! Here,! losing! control! means! losing! ground! in! the!
historical!domains!of!their!economic!initiativethat!is,!losing!optionality.!Although!not!new,!
this! process! has! become! prominent! over! the! last! ten! to! fifteen! years.! Despite! this! change,!
livestock! keeping! continues! to! cut! across! all! other! economic! options! as! the! main! basis! of!
livelihood!security!for!residents.!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
5
!The! truck! stop! of! alNKhalil! in! northern! Mali! on! the! Algeria! border,! studied! by! Judith! Scheele,! is! an!
example.! AlNKhalil! helps! strangers! selling! merchandise! with! contacts,! brokerage,! assurance! about!
payment,! advice,! and! safe! accommodation.! Here,! power! and! money! comes! not! so! much! from!
national!relations!but!from!longNdistance!connectivity.!Although!located!in!Mali,!alNKhalil!thrives!on!its!
contacts!outside!the!desert!and!its!position!in!relation!to!Algeria!(Scheele,!2012).!
6
!Characteristic! Saharan! networks! of! connectivity! today! are! combined! with! the! growing! access! to!
radio,!the!Internet,!and!satellite!television!(McDougal!and!Scheele,!2012).!
7
!This!has!been!the!case,!for!example,!in!the!department!of!Agadez,!Niger,!following!the!creation!of!
the!desert!mining!centers!in!the!1970s,!which! soon!grew!into!large!towns,!politically!influential!but!
substantially! disconnected! from! the! local! economy! (Grgoire,! 1999).! In! the! MoroccanNcontrolled!
Western! Sahara,! [where]! the! perception! that! government! largesse! disproportionately! benefits!
nonindigenous!Western!Saharans!has!sowed!the!seeds!of!anger!and!hatred!(Wehrey!and!Boukhars,!
2013,! p.! 190);! or! in! the! Egyptian! South! Sinai,! a! region! where! successful! economic! development! has!
antagonised! local! livelihood! strategies! with! new! opportunities! the! locals! are! at! a! disadvantage! to!
compete!for,!resulting!in!a!society!that!requires!a!policeman!for!every!five!residents!(Gilbert,!2011;!
Gilbert,!2013).!

! 15!
Livestock:(A(crossTcutting(production(strategy(

Raising! livestock! remains! the! most! widespread! livelihood! strategy! in! the! Sahara! and!
neighboring! areas,! and! pastoral! systems! are! what! make! it! profitable! (see! Box! 1).! Virtually!
everyone!in!the!Sahara!invests!in!livestock,!including!people!who!live!in!towns.!In!order!to!
secure!the!highest!returns,!most!of!this!investment!depends!on!pastoral!systems,!in!which!
the!animals!are!kept!for!at!least!part!of!the!year!and!entrusted!to!family!members!or!looked!
after! by! waged! herders. 8 !The! old! typologies! conflating! cultural! identity! and! production!
strategy!are!no!longer!pertinent;!a!focus!on!the!logic!of!production!is!more!useful!(see!Box!2).!

Pastoral! management! strategies! are! based! on! taking! advantage! of! discontinuity!
(environmental! variability).! These! strategies! adapt! to! the! dynamics! in! the! distribution! of!
assets! and! resource! access,! without! failing! to! embed! new! opportunities.! Today,! timely!
access! to! rich! but! ephemeral! pasture! can! be! assured! by! moving! livestock! and! sometimes!
water! by! truck! (initially! costly! and! potentially! risky! operations! have! been! made! more!
effective! and! reliable! by! the! introduction! of! mobile! phones).! FastNgrowing! Saharan! towns!
are!booming!markets!for!livestock,!which!not!only!secure!profits!for!local!producers!but!also!
boost! imports! from! jobs! in! the! Sahelian! countries.! TransNSaharan! livestock! smugglers! and!
absentee!livestock!owners!from!the!Maghreb!need!to!employ!Saharan!herders.9!

These! new! opportunities! are! being! exploited! from! a! position! of! difficulty! on! the! back! of! a!
century! of! generally! antagonistic,! externallyNdriven! transformations! in! the! SaharaSahel!
complexfor! example,! loss! of! access! to! dry! season! grazing! reserves! and! pullNandNpush!
policies! to! induce! sedentarizationwhich! have! undermined! the! capacity! of! many! pastoral!
producers!to!make!use!of!what!for!centuries!had!been!their!added!value,!including!the!wellN
rehearsed!capacity!to!cope!with!long!dry!spells!and!recover!from!severe!losses.!Many!people!
who! became! destitute! in! the! droughts! of! the! 1970s! and! 1980s! never! managed! to! rebuild!
their!herds!and!were!forced!to!adjust!to!other!sources!of!livelihood.!!

Classical! Saharan/Sahelian! livestock! keeping! was! organized! around! pastoral! groups,! based!
on! ethnicity! and! customary! social! institutions.! Much! has! changed! today,! but! these! groups!
remain!key!determinants!of!the!pastoral!economy.!All!livelihood!systems!outlined!here!have!
evolved!at!different!speeds!and!have!followed!different!paths,!but!the!basic!picture!remains!
recognizable.! There! are! three! main! pastoral! groupings:! northern! Saharan! mountains! and!
plains!pastoralism;!camel!pastoralism;!and!cattle!pastoralism.!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
8
!See! International! Crisis! Group! (2005)! and! McDougal! and! Scheele! (2012):! The! information! on! the!
magnitude!of!pastoral!systems!is!scant!and!fragmentary,!hampered!by!a!general!lack!of!disaggregated!
data,! the! legacy! from! the! past! theoretical! framework,! and! biases! embedded! in! definitions! and!
appraisal!mechanisms!(Krtli!et!al.,!2013b).!
9
!See! McDougal! and! Scheele! (2012):! Algerian! traders! with! longNstanding! connections! in! northern!
Mali! employ! Tuareg! drivers! to! smuggle! herds! north;! inNmigrants! from! the! garrison! town! of! Bechar!
near!the!Algerian!border!with!Morocco!make!a!fortune!by!trading!in!Malian!camels!destined!for!illegal!
export! to! Morocco! []! Libyans! have! heavily! invested! in! livestock! kept! by! ArabicNspeaking! groups! in!
northern!Niger!(p.!8).!

! 16!
Northern(Saharan(mountains(and(plains(pastoralism(
A! large! group! of! ArabicNspeaking! Bedouin! pastoralists! inhabit! the! high! grasslands! of! the!
northern!Saharan!transition!zone,!the!mountain!ranges!that!border!them!to!the!north!(Atlas!
and!Jabal!alNAkhdar!and!adjacent!coastal!plains!in!Cyrenaica),!and!the!coastal!plains!beyond,!
including! the! Algerian! Tell! and! the! Libyan! coastal! plain! (Johnson,! 1973).! Pastoralists! in! this!
livelihood! system! generally! cultivate! betterNwatered! areas! with! wheat,! and! there! is!
speculative! cropping! of! barley;! households! strive! for! selfNsufficiency.! Land! is! allocated! by!
agreement!and!tradition,!in!strips!running!at!right!angles!to!the!coast,!so!everyone!has!some!
of!every!type!of!land!and!microclimate.!Each!area!specializes!in!a!market!mix!of!animals!and!
grains!for!which!local!demand!is!high.!Goats!and!sheep!are!the!most!important!animals,!with!
cattle!restricted!to!betterNwatered!areas,!and!camels!are!also!significant.!Movements!are!a!
function!of!the!demands!of!cultivation!at!two!sites!and!grazing!for!the!livestock.!

Camel(pastoralism(
These!are!the!historic!pastoral!entities!that!still!dominate!Saharan!pastoral!life.!They!include!
the!Rgaybat!in!the!Western!Sahara,!Morocco,!and!Mauritania;!the!Tuareg!confederations!in!
the! mountains! and! adjacent! plains! of! the! central! Sahara;! the! Toubou! of! the! Tibesti! in!
northern!Chad;!and!the!Tuareg!and!Toubou!of!the!Fezzan!in!southern!Libya.!

Cattle(pastoralism(of(the(Saharan/Sahelian(borders(
These!include!several!Tuareg!confederations!in!the!plains!of!central!Niger!and!eastern!Mali,!
and!another!confederation!close!to!the!Niger!River,!from!Timbuktu!west!to!the!MauritanianN
Senegal!border.!Fulani!groups!are!also!included!here,!such!as!the!Fulani!of!the!central!Niger!
River! flood! zone! around! Mopti! and! across! the! border! with! Mauritania;! the! Wodaabe!
specialist!cattle!herders!in!lowland!northern!Mali,!central!Niger,!and!across!the!border!with!
Chad,!up!to!Sudan;!as!well!as!various!other!groups,!such!as!the!Zaghawa!in!eastern!Niger!and!
central!Chad!and!Darfur.!

Reliable!data!on!the!magnitude!of!these!pastoral!systems!are!lacking.!The!current!picture!is!
scant! and! fragmentary,! hampered! by! a! general! lack! of! disaggregated! data.10!In! Mali,! for!
example,!impoverished!Fulani!pastoralists!had!become!largely!invisible!to!the!administration!
by!the!end!of!the!1990s!(see!de!Bruijn!and!van!Dijk,!2003),!a!situation!unlikely!to!have!been!
improved!by!recent!events.!!

Livestock(ownership(and(changing(strategies(

It!is!a!common!view!in!the!literature!that!a!substantial!portion!of!pastoral!livestock!is!now!in!
the!hands!of!urban!traders!and!absentee!owners,!and!that!this!phenomenon!reached!critical!
proportions! during! the! major! droughts! of! the! 1970s! and! especially! the! 1980s.! If! we! trust!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
10
!A!recent!World!Bank!study!stated,!It!is!estimated!that!about!50!million!people!rely!on!pastoralism!
for!their!livelihoods!in!subNSaharan!Africa;!about!half!of!them!are!located!in!the!Sahel!and!the!Saharan!
fringes.!(De!Haan!et!al.,!2014,!p.!However,!the!sources!for!such!estimates!are!weak!and!there!are!no!
secure! figures! for! the! number! of! pastoralists! in! the! Sahara! and! surroundings! (PicaNCiamarra! et! al.,!
2014).!For!a!recent!analysis!of!this!challenge!with!regard!to!Kenya,!see!Krtli!and!Swift!(2014).!

! 17!
these! estimates,11!a! significant! share! of! the! SaharaSahel! complexs! most! critical! capital!
asset!has!passed!into!the!hands!of!outsiders.!!

On!the!eve!of!the!drought!of!the!1980s,!pastoral!systems!were!still!the!main!economy!of!the!
SaharaSahel!complex,!but!it!was!an!economy!that!had!been!undermined!and!distorted!by!
huge! losses! of! resources! during! the! early! colonial! period, 12 !followed! by! decades! of!
inappropriate!development!interventions.!Many!animals!died!during!the!1980s!drought,!but!
many!more!were!sold!by!the!hundreds!to!investors!for!a!nominal!price.!As!pastoralists!had!
always! made! every! effort! to! avoid! selling! reproductive! females! (the! equivalent! of! land! for!
crop! farmers),! this! sudden! transfer! of! pastoral! means! of! production! to! people! whose!
livelihood!was!outside!the!pastoral!system!marked!a!turning!point.!!

The! understanding! of! this! phenomenon! has! been! particularly! affected! by! the! dominant!
theoretical! framework! of! the! time.! From! that! perspective,! pastoralism! was! assumed! to! be!
backwards! and! economically! inefficient.! That! pastoralists! finally! could! not! cope! and! lost!
their! assets! to! more! modern! players! (who! were! sedentary! and! appeared! closer! to! the!
market!economy)!fits!the!model,!so!not!many!questions!were!asked.!The!transfer!of!assets!
was! generally! framed! as! a! form! of! development,! without! any! analysis! of! its! implications
economic,! but! also! social! and! politicalfor! extreme! environments! where! mobile! livestock!
remained! the! backbone! livelihood! option.! In! reality,! losses! were! directly! linked! to! lack! of!
mobility!and!those!producers!who!were!still!in!a!position!to!follow!mobile!strategies!suffered!
significantly!less.13!!

Analysis!of!this!large!transfer!of!livestock!ownership!from!pastoral!communities!to!absentee!
owners!has!yet!to!be!carried!out!from!the!perspective!of!the!new!paradigm.!In!particular,!it!
would! be! important! to! investigate! the! fact! that! while! livestock! changed! owners,! the!
resource!basis!and!the!management!system!remained!fundamentally!the!same.!Rather!than!
bringing!livestock!production!out!of!pastoral!systems,!the!shift!in!ownership!opened!pastoral!
systems! to! outside! investors! who! became! employers! of! destitute! herders! and! free! riders!
with!regard!to!pastoral!resources!(not!only!pasture!and!water,!but!also!the!knowledge!and!
social!capital!that!are!necessary!for!these!systems!reproduction).!!

Large! numbers! of! livestock! were! sold! to! outside! investors.! Had! they! died,! the! heavily!
destocked! pastoral! system! would! have! experienced! a! surplus! of! feed! resources.! Instead,!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
11
!Although! certainly! reflecting! an! important! historical! transformation,! the! actual! scale! of! this!
phenomenon! can! only! be! guessed,! as! reliable! data! on! national! livestock! numbers! (never! mind!
ownership)!including!pastoral!systems!are!usually!not!available!(see!Behnke,!2010;!PicaNCiamarra!et!
al.,!2014;!Krtli,!2014).!
12
!By! 1918,! in! the! aftermath! of! the! last! war! against! the! French,! the! Tuareg! of! the! Ar! mountains! in!
northern!Niger!had!lost!20!percent!of!their!people!and!about!90!percent!of!their!livestock,!while!their!
political!organization!had!been!almost!entirely!dismantled!(Triaud,!1993).!
13
!For!example,!the!Wodaabe!in!Niger,!whose!low!profile!(both!politically!and!demographically)!kept!
them! peripheral! to! the! nomad! problem! in! the! minds! of! the! colonial! administration,! with! the!
consequence!of!delaying!their!sedentarization.!These!groups!suffered!consistently!smaller!losses!from!
droughts! than! other! pastoral! groups! with! similar! or! even! higher! resource! entitlements! but! less!
mobility!(for!example,!among!the!Tuareg).!See!Habou!and!Danguioua!(1991)!on!the!drought!of!1984;!
Bernus! (1977)! and! Mesnil! (1978)! on! the! drought! of! 19691973;! and! SZEPcaud! (1933)! on! the!
drought!of!1931.!

! 18!
these!animals!exited!the!traditional!circuits!of!redistribution!but!were!still!kept!on!pastoral!
resources,!which!got!in!the!way!of!the!habitual!patterns!of!recovery!(therefore!contributing!
to!permanent!losses!that!in!the!past!had!perhaps!been!worse!but!temporary).!

Pastoralism! has! historically! been! the! main! source! of! optionality! in! the! Sahara;! it! was! what!
secured!sufficient!economic!autonomy!to!offer!flexibility!and!negotiating!power!with!regard!
to! complementary! livelihood! strategies,! and! it! was! a! socially! rewarding! path! to! generating!
wealth!by!taking!risks!based!on!experience!and!competence.!In!this!context,!the!loss!of!large!
parts! of! pastoral! systems! to! outside! players! represented! a! fragilization! that! reaches! far!
beyond!the!boundaries!of!the!pastoral!economy!or!the!livestock!sector.!Where!pastoralism!
becomes!impossible,!people!turned!their!full!attention!to!the!new!SaharanNwide!economy.!!

Trade(and(livelihoods(

Loss! of! local! control! is! also! a! trend! with! regard! to! longNdistance! livestock! trade! and,! more!
generally,! most! dimensions! of! transNSaharan! trade.! While! there! are! indicators! that! trading!
has!increased!significantly!since!the!mid!1980s,!this!has!been!accompanied!by!a!progressive!
loss!of!control!by!local!residents.!Already!by!the!1990s,!most!transNSaharan!trade!from!Niger!
was! in! the! hands! of! outsiders! who! operated! without! the! need! of! the! Tuaregs! protection.!
Today,!Saharan!people!are!largely!relegated!to!the!roles!of!transporters!and!small!middleN
men!(Lecocq,!2013;!Grgoire,!1999;!Lecocq!and!Schrijer,!2007;!Scheele,!2012).!!

TransNSaharan! trade! has! been! a! central! theme! in! much! of! the! historical! literature! on! the!
region.!Recent!literature!tends!to!focus!more!on!the!interaction!between!international!and!
local! trade! and! the! way! in! which! local! service! providers! are! becoming! a! livelihood! group.!
Ecological! conditions! in! the! Sahara! necessitate! the! exchange! and! storage! of! goods,! relying!
on!farNreaching!support!networks.!The!demand!has!expanded!with!rapid!urbanization!(food!
and!services!but!also!resources!for!the!booming!building!industry).!While!second!to!the!longN
distance!transNregional!trade!in!terms!of!absolute!value,!intraNSaharan!trade!is!likely!to!have!
more!evenly!distributed!returns!with!regard!to!the!local!economy;! encompassing!products!
such! as! flour,! pasta,! petrol,! narcotics,! cigarettes,! and! arms.! The! vast! desert! region,! largely!
unpoliced,! plays! an! important! role! in! the! trafficking! of! illegal! goods,! especially! arms! and!
narcotics.! Although! this! trafficking! makes! it! more! often! to! the! front! pages! of! international!
media,! a! significant! proportion! of! illegal! trade! involves! goods! such! as! subsidized!
commodities! from! Algeria! (flour,! pasta,! and! fuel),! cigarettes! from! the! United! States! via!
Mauritania,!livestock!from!Mali,!small!electronics!from!Libya,!and!fashionable!items!flowing!
east!from!Mauritania!and!Morocco.!Narcotics!and!cigarettes!cross!the!desert!toward!Europe,!
but!most!of!the!other!goods!supply!the!Saharan!market.!Transportation!of!migrants!into!and!
across!the!desert!is!also!a!significant!industry.!Many!are!in!transit,!headed!toward!the!North!
African! countries! hoping! to! continue! into! Europe,! but! many! more! remain! in! the! region.14!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
14
!The! transNSaharan! migration! to! Europe! is! in! fact! a! migration! that! largely! ends! in! the! Sahara,!
especially! during! the! periodical! EU! pressure! on! North! African! states! to! clamp! down! on! the!
immigration! channels! (Scheele,! 2012,! p.! 205).! Taking! into! account! the! different! ratio! of! migrants! to!
local!population,!the!transNSaharan!migration!to!Europe!has!necessarily!a!much!stronger!political!and!
economic!impact!on!the!Saharan!region!than!on!Europe!itself.!

! 19!
Illegal!trade!is!believed!to!be!linked!to!border!customs!corruption,!political!corruption!within!
Sahelian!and!Maghreb!states,!and!international!organized!crime!outside!Africa.15!

In!the!Sahara,!legal!and!illegal!trade!often!overlap.!Along!trade!routes,!small!corrupt!nodes!
of!activity!have!emerged!that!offer!shelter,!security,!and!various!forms!of!illegal!paperwork!
and! currency! for! those! with! social! network! connections! (Lacher,! 2013).! Unmapped!
settlements!like!alNKhalil!develop!along!trading!routes!for!specific!purposes,!disappearing!as!
quickly! and! easily! as! they! were! established! if! circumstances! change.! People! are! constantly!
coming! and! going,! and! there! are! few! permanent! residents.! Such! settlements! are! flexible!
bodies,! responding! to! the! world! around! them! according! to! a! logic! of! exploiting!
discontinuities! that! is! not! dissimilar,! in! principle,! from! the! one! that! operates! in! mobile!
pastoralism.! Trading! itself! is,! of! course,! a! way! to! exploit! spatial! differences! in! price.!
Smuggling!subsidised!goods!is!similar.!

Oasis(agriculture16

Oases!are!agricultural!areas!in!arid!environments!where!agriculture!is!normally!not!possible!
without! irrigation! (De! Haas,! 2001,! p.! 8).! Scattered! throughout! the! Sahara! where! rivers,!
groundwater,! or! springs! allow! reliable! extraction,! oases! have! provided! crucial! logistical!
infrastructures! along! historical! trade! routes! and! local! exchange! routes,! connecting! regions!
on! either! side! of! the! desert.! Oasis! agriculture! is! made! possible! by! coNevolving! systems! of!
physical! and! social! infrastructures,! a! complex! and! often! vast! irrigation! system! with! laborN
intensive! maintenance! requirements,! and! traditional! institutions! to! secure! its! collective!
management.!!

The! literature! distinguishes! traditional! and! modern! oases! according! to! their! system! of!
water! extraction.! However,! for! decades,! modern! technologies! for! water! extraction! have!
been! introduced! along! the! legacy! of! agroNhydrological! infrastructures! in! most! traditional!
oases,! in! some! cases! since! the! 1960s.! Thus! the! term!traditional! refers! to!this! legacy! and!
usually!refers!to!the!fact!that!oases!have!a!long!history.!

Traditional!oasis!agriculture!has!been!built!on!a!symbiotic!relationship!with!mobile!livestock!
systems! (Tisserand,! 1990).! Periodically! visiting! livestock! provided! the! manure! necessary! to!
maintain! soil! fertility! and! received! feed! from! cultivated! fodder! and,! in! some! cases,! crop!
residues.!Dependence!on!livestock!also!included!transport,!water!extraction,!and!ploughing.!!

Strong! institutional! practices! (for! example,! military! protection)! and! economic!

complementarity! connected! livelihood! strategies! in! the! oasis! and! in! the! desert,! but! such!
strategies! were! often! conflated! in! the! same! social! groups,! with! individuals! moving! in! both!
directions!between!themnomads!settling!in!oases!(and!sometimes!founding!them),!while!
many! oases! inhabitants! engaged! in! nomadic! activities! for! at! least! part! of! the! year! (Ensel,!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
15
!Grgoire,!1999;!Van!de!Walle,!2012;!Scheele,!2012;!Wehrey!and!Boukhars,!2013;!Lecocq,!2013;!FCO,!
2013.!Lecocq!and!Schrijer!(2007)!recall!Grgoires!work!confirming!that!since!the!1990s,!most!of!the!
Saharan! networks! have! been! assimilated! into! larger! transnational! networks,! and! the! Tuareg! and!
Moorish!smugglers!function!now!only!as!transporters.!They!are!paid!per!successful!trip!with!a!part!of!
the!profit,!the!rest!of!which!goes!to!the!Nigerian,!Libyan!or!Lebanese!financial!backers!(p.!158).!
16
!This!section!is!mostly!built!on!De!Haas,!2001.!

! 20!
1999;! Hart,! 1981;! De! Haas! and! El! Ghanjou,! 2000).! This! symbiotic! relationshipstill! alive!
today! in! many! parts! of! the! Sahel! and! sometimes! extending! to! the! Saharashows! the!
proximity!between!pastoral!and!crop!systems.!

Oasis! agriculture! can! have! up! to! three! productive! layers! and! a! high! concentration! of!
biodiversity.! The! upper! layer! is! typically! represented! by! date! palms.! The! medium! layer! is!
made! out! of! smaller! fruit! trees! (including! fig,! almond,! olive,! okra,! pomegranates,! cherry,!
grape,! and! henna).! The! lower! layer! can! have! a! variety! of! annual! crops! (barley,! millet,!
sorghum,! tender! wheat,! fodderusually! alfalfaas! well! as! vegetables! and! saffron).!
However,!all!three!are!found!only!where!conditions!are!particularly!favorable.!The!date!palm!
needs! a! hot! desert! climate,! which! poses! a! strong! constraint! to! the! presence! of! the! upper!
layer!in!cold!mountain!oases!(for!example,!in!the!upper!Dads!valley!in!Morocco).!The!two!
lower!levels!have! large!water! requirements,!and!are!thus!often!absent!in!traditional!oases!
where!farming!is!constrained!by!lack!of!water!(see!below).!!

The!erosion!of!traditional!institutions!for!collective!management!has!resulted!in!increasing!
household! dependency! on! nonNagricultural! sources! of! (cash)! income,! integration! in! the!
market! economy,! decline! of! the! feudal! socioNethnic! relations,! and! rising! individualism.!
Beside! this! general! phenomenon,! a! recent! study! of! processes! of! transformation! in! oasis!
agriculture!in!the!Maghreb!identified!the!following!main!interlocked!trends!(De!Haas,!2001).!!

1.#Persistence#of#traditional#oases((where!either!water!or!capital!are!not!scarce).!Particularly!
in! waterNrich! spring! oases! and! upstream! parts! of! rivers! (for! example,! mountain! oases! in!
Morocco)!and!where!there!is!a!strong!flow!of!remittances!from!international!migration.!Shift!
from! cereals! to! fodder! crops! (for! example,! alfalfa),! and! certain! fruit! trees.! As! men! outN
migrate! and! female! labor! becomes! more! important,! a! new! division! of! labor! developed.! In!
the! case! of! waterNrich! oases,! which! tend! to! be! mountainNlocked,! land! scarcity! is! the! main!
constraint.!Production!is!usually!as!intensive!as!it!can!be,!and!therefore!the!scope!for!further!
development!is!limited.!!

2.#The#decline#of#traditional#oases((where!both!water!and!capital!are!scarce)!is!usually!quite!
limited.! Triggered! by! laborNintensive! maintenance! requirements! of! the! legacy! of! physical!
agroNhydrological! infrastructures! for! irrigation! (for! example,! khettaras,! the! traditional!
underground! canals)! combined! with! weakened! traditional! institutions! to! command! labor!
input.! Lack! of! water,! induced! by! organizational! shortfalls,! leads! to! declining! intensification!
and!the!abandonment!of!some!gardens.!This!is!common!in!many!poor!oases!in!the!Maghreb!
(for!example,!the!lower!Todgha!valley!in!Morocco).!This!particular!trend!is!less!visible!where!
water!provision!is!secured!by!stateNbuilt!central!water!pumps!(such!as!in!Tunisia).!

3.# Increased# production# in# traditional# oases! (vertical! intensification,! which! takes! place!
through!the!introduction!of!new!waterNextraction!technologies,!especially!motor!pumping!in!
areas!already!cultivated).!Normally,!only!households!with!a!regular!and!substantial!income!
outside! agriculture! can! afford! the! investment! necessary! to! bypass! the! traditional! water!
extraction!systems!(digging!their!own!wells!and!buying!a!motor!pump).!In!Morocco,!this!is!
only! the! case! for! households! that! receive! remittances! from! international! migration;! in!
Algeria,!this!also!applies!to!internal!migrant!workers!in!the!oil!industry.!In!waterNrich!oases,!
mechanised! water! pumping! is! often! combined! with! traditional! water! extraction.! Where!

! 21!
water! is! scarce,! farmers! with! enough! capital! to! invest! intensify! production! by! shifting! to!
motor!pumping.!

4.# Increased# production# in# new# areas1 (horizontal! intensification,! which! takes! place!
through!the!development!of!agricultural!extension!in!the!desert!using!motor!pumping).!This!
practice!started!in!colonial!times!but!increased!rapidly!after!independence,!and!boomed!in!
the! 1980s! and! 1990s.! These! techniques! were! usually! promoted! by! the! state! (for! example,!
Algeria! and! Tunisia), 17 !and! were! often! combined! with! the! partial! modernization! of!
agricultural! techniques! (machinery,! fertilizers,! and! pesticides),! and! a! specialization! in! cash!
crops,!especially!dates!and!almonds,!mostly!for!local!markets!(with!the!important!exception!
of!Tunisian!dates).!The!modernization!of!oases!in!Tunisia!was!largely!driven!by!the!desire!to!
increase! cultivation! of! the! highNquality! deglet1 nour! date! in! response! to! market! demand.!
Modern! deglet1 nour! oases! are! monocultures,! which! do! not! offer! the! same! additional!
advantage! of! biodiversity! (instead,! they! represent! a! biodiversity! loss! where! they! have!
replaced!threeNlayered!oasis!agriculture).!In!recent!years,!date!production!has!declined!due!
to!increasing!soil!salinity,!the!spread!of!disease,!and!a!reduction!in!market!prices.!!

5.# Changes# in# animal# husbandry# and# crop# patterns.! Where! poorly! maintained! traditional!
agroNhydrological! infrastructures! have! reduced! the! scale! of! oasis! agriculture,! livestock!
breeding! offers! an! alternative! livelihood! strategy.! Keeping! livestock! (especially! dairy! cows)!
has!become!frequent!among!sedentary!oasis!dwellers,!particularly!women.!Today,!livestockN
keeping!households!often!depend!on!purchased!fodder!(which!leads!to!a!great!expansion!in!
the!cultivation!of!alfalfa,!sometimes!replacing!cereals!and!vegetable!crops).!Although!oasisN
based!livestock!keeping!started!as!a!smallNscale!subsistence!strategy,!the!growing!demand!of!
milk!and!meat!in!rapidly!increasing!urban!centers!is!pushing!some!of!these!producers!to!also!
explore!marketing!opportunities.!At!the!time!of!De!Haass!study!(2001),!the!information!on!
new!patterns!of!animal!husbandry!was!mainly!from!Morocco,!and!we!did!not!come!across!
any!more!recent!literature!on!this!subject.!!

Current!research!on!the!transformation!of!oasis!agriculture!emphasizes!the!interconnected!
and!often!recursive!character!of!the!various!processes!highlighted!above,!and!therefore!the!
necessity!of!understanding!them!in!relation!to!one!another!in!connectivity!terms!rather!than!
from! a! deterministic! perspective.! OutNmigration,! for! example,! has! been! described! in! the!
literature! as! inherently! problematic;! a! driver! of! stagnation! or! even! a! contributor! to! the!
decline! of! oasis! agriculture! and! the! local! economy.! However,! outside! the! rigidity! of! a!
deterministic! framework,! the! empirical! evidence! tells! a! more! complex! and! nuanced! story,!
also! showing! alternative! scenarios.! OutNmigration! can! represent! the! breakdown! of!
households!and!traditional!local!communities,!but!can!also!represent!a!way!of!establishing!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
17
!Following! a! World! Bank! warning! against! dependency! on! the! oil! economy,! Algeria! has! recently!
invested!heavily!in!expanding!its!agricultural!land!in!the!south!of!the!country!on!the!Saharan!fringes.!
About!1.1!million!hectares!of!irrigated!land!have!been!created!around!the!southern!oasis!of!El!Oued,!
expected!to!rise!to!1.6!million!in!2014.!The!government!is!offering!prospective!farmers!concessions!
and! cheap! loans! to! entice! them! to! work! the! land.! With! strong! forecasts! for! increasing! growth,! the!
policy!has!been!held!up!as!a!positive!example!of!government!intervention!in!the!south,!particularly!in!
response! to! instability! in! the! area! (News! Desk,! 2013).! Over! the! past! forty! years,! the! oasis! area! in!
Tunisia!has!increased!from!approximately!16,700!ha!in!1974!to!approximately!41,700!in!2010,!which!
is!a!clear!reflection!of!government!investment!(World!Bank,!2013).!

! 22!
new! networks! of! connectivityto! take! advantage! of! market! discontinuitiesin! the! same!
logic!of!more!traditional!oasis!strategies!(or!simply!dryland!strategies).!It!is!important!to!
remember! though,! with! outNmigration! as! with! the! other! processes! of! transformation!
analyzed! in! this! sectionthat! to! be! found! not! inherently! bad,! or! even! at! times! good,!
does!not!make!them!inherently!good.!The!availability!of!capital!has!allowed!the!necessary!
investments!to!overcome!the!lack!of!reliable!access!to!water!resulting!from!the!breakdown!
of! traditional! institutions.! But! the! intensification! of! oasis! agricultureespecially! the! huge!
increase! in! water! extraction! from! deep! aquifers,! and! the! expansion! of! cultivated! areas!
outside! the! perimeter! of! traditional! oasesis! happening! in! a! void! of! institutional! reform,!
and!often!its!consequences!are!still!unknown.!

The! overuse! of! water! is! the! result! of! the! largeNscale! introduction! of! monocultures! of! the!
deglet1 nour! date,! and! also! urbanization! and! illicit! exploitation! of! collective! lands.! More!
generally,!the!overuse!of!water!is!linked!to!the!unregulated!opening!of!oasis!agriculture!to!
external! and! urbanNbased! investors! (who,! once! their! investment! has! paid! off,! can! simply!
move!their!capitaland!even!their!pumpselsewhere).!

Tourism((

Tourism! is! an! important! potential! source! of! income! in! the! Sahara.! It! cannot! be! realized! in!
the!present!situation,!but!could!be!realized!when!the!security!situation!improves.!!

The!Sahara!is!home!to!a!rich!cultural!and!natural!heritage,!both!prehistoric!and!living,!which!
has! been! built! up! over! centuries! and! holds! the! key! to! creating! sustainable! tourism! in! the!
region.! The! Sahara! has! three! potential! worldNclass! attractions:! (i)! unique! landscapes,!
including!two!sand!seas!the!size!of!small!countries,!even!larger!gravel!plains,!and!spectacular!
mountains,!all!known!to!appeal!directly!to!a!certain!sort!of!tourist!in!search!of!ecologicallyN
sensitive!experiences!or!adventures;!(ii)!a!unique!fauna;!and!(iii)!a!huge!display!of!rock!art!
distributed!across!much!of!the!desert!and!dating!from!different!periods.!

The!Sahara!is!an!important!biodiversity!reserve,!reflecting!the!demanding!and!highly!variable!
environment.!Of!the!fourteen!large!vertebrates!that!have!historically!occurred!in!the!region,!
four!are!now!extinct!in!the!wild,!including!the!scimitarNhorned!oryx!(Oryx1dammah)!(Durant!
et! al.,! 2013).! Addax! (Addax1 nasomaculatus),! dama! gazelle! (Nanger1 dama),! and! Saharan!
cheetah!(Acynonyx1jubatus1hecki),!the!latter!recorded!as!common!south!of!the!Tanezrouft!by!
CapotNRey!in!the!1950s,!are!threatened!with!extinction.!Efforts!for!their!conservation!would!
be!greatly!helped!by!the!development!of!desert!tourism.!

The!Ahaggar!and!the!Tassili!mountains!national!parks,!both!in!the!Algerian!Sahara,!are!at!the!
center!of!an!area!of!150,000!km2!of!desert!potentially!available!for!tourism,!as!are!the!Ar!
and! Tnr! National! Nature! Reserve,! a! World! Heritage! site,! in! Niger! and! the! Wadi!
Rime/Wadi! Achim! in! Chad.! In! times! of! security,! local! pastoral! communities! receive! tourist!
payments! to! rent! camels! or! 4x4! vehicles,! and! to! hire! teams! of! guides,! cooks,! drivers,!
interpreters,!and!organizers,!all!of!which!pumps!considerable!wealth!into!the!local!economy.!
In!the!absence!of!tourists,!the!main!use!for!the!basic!equipment!of!this!tradeessentially!
4x4! vehicles! and! a! detailed! knowledge! of! the! territoryis! the! transport! of! cigarettes! and!
migrants!(Chatelard,!2005).!

! 23!
Perhaps!the!most!important!potential!attraction!for!tourists!is!the!rock!art.!Comparison!with!
European!rock!art!sites,!such!as!Lascaux!in!southwest!France,!suggests!it!could!be!the!basis!
for!a!healthy!Saharan!tourist!industry.!Rock!art!is!vulnerable,!however.!The!rock!art!of!the!
Sahara! is! subject! to! harsh! environmental! forces! that! have! eroded! much! of! the! work! over!
centuries.!Recent!threats!are!even!more!serious.!Since!the!drawings!were!first!publicized!in!
the!first!half!of!the!20th!century!they!have!been!subjected!to!severe!vandalism!and!looting.!
This! human! impact! is! a! recent! phenomenon;! local! people,! professional! looters,! scientists,!
extraction!companies,!the!military,!and!bandits,!amongst!others,!are!all!responsible!for!the!
degradation! of! Saharan! archaeological! sites.! Looting! has! been! particularly! damaging! when!
done! by! both! professional! looters! hoping! to! sell! items! in! local! markets! and! archaeologists!
and!ethnologists!collecting!specimens!to!exhibit!abroad.!Many!of!these!items!have!not!even!
been! recorded.! In! Morocco,! 40! percent! of! all! known! rock! art! has! been! lost! in! this! way!
(Keenan,!2002).!!

In!the!Algerian!Sahara,!much!vandalism!has!been!religious!in!nature;!people!from!the!north,!
either! on! holiday! or! civil! servants! posted! to! the! south,! have! put! graffiti! over! the! rock!
drawings.!In!the!southern!Sahara!vandalism!usually!reflects!political!discontent!and!political!
slogans! are! common.! Casual! damage! by! touristssuch! as! Mohamed! was! here!
inscriptionsare!also!widespread!(Keenan,!2002).!

At! its! best,! tourism! can! generate! large! revenues.! In! 1987,! when! the! security! situation! was!
under! control,! the! ParisNDakar! rally! is! estimated! to! have! earned! Agadez! in! northern! Niger!
some! 787! million! CFAF! (US$1.8! million)! from! petrol! sales,! hotel! occupancies,! and! other!
tourism!spending!for!the!short!period!the!circus!was!in!town.!

Tourism! could! be! a! useful! potential! form! of! economic! diversification! in! the! Sahara,!
combining!well!with!the!strategies!of!connectivity!and!optionality.!But!it!would!be!unwise!to!
put! too! much! weight! on! this! possibility,! especially! at! the! expense! of! more! locally! driven!
economic!options.!Tourism!is!notoriously!sensitive!to!the!slightest!political!upset.!A!Sahara!
characterized! by! political! uncertainty! has! narrow! limits! on! its! tourism! potential.!
Nevertheless,!tourism!should!stay!on!the!list!of!possible!sectors!for!future!diversification;!a!
way!to!expand!optionality!for!local!people,!but!with!caution!not!to!turn!it!into!its!opposite.!

Engaging(with(Saharan(Livelihood(Strategies(
Saharan!livelihood!systems!have!been!placed!under!unprecedented!pressure!by!the!loss!of!
control! over! part! of! the! pastoral! economy! and! by! levels! of! inNmigration! that! dwarf! the!
experience! of! industrialized! countries.! In! the! past! twenty! years,! livelihood! systems! have!
managed!to!bounce!back!with!successful!forms!of!diversification:!new!forms!of!technologyN
assisted! pastoral! mobility;! revitalized! and! intensified! oasis! agriculture! funded! through! outN
migration;!investments!in!livestock!trade!and!the!tourism!industry;!ever!more!complex!and!
farNreaching! forms! of! smuggling;! and! even! jihadismwhere! it! increases! connectivity! and!
optionalityare!prime!examples.!!

What!remains!lacking!is!the!ability!of!planners!to!innovate,!especially!moving!away!from!the!
legacy!of!a!restricted!understanding!of! order!and!the!tunnel!vision!that!identifies!it!with!

! 24!
control! and! stability.! Saharan! livelihood! systems! can! only! grow! and! change! based! on! their!
peculiar! strengths! (the! history! of! using! connectivity! and! optionality)! and! the! opportunities!
that! confront! them.! The! challenge! is! to! engage! with! this! unusual! reality! on! its! own! terms,!
and!not!clamp!down!connectivity!and!optionality!out!of!fear!or!misunderstanding,!but!rather!
to!effectively!engage!with!its!logic!and!accompany!it!in!directions!that!can!be!more!widely!
shared! as! desirable.! Supporting! Saharan! peoples! to! reconsolidate! their! responsibility! over!
the!territory!and!their!management!of!the!pastoral!systems,!with!the!gains!in!connectivity!
and!optionality!that!come!with!it,!would!be!one!of!them.!Along!that!path,!other!problems!
may!also!be!solved,!that!now!appear!without!solution.!

An! example! to! illustrate! this! point! relates! to! border! security,! a! critical! component! of! any!
political! settlement! of! present! conflict.! International! borders! in! the! Sahara! challenge! the!
ability!of!the!states!to!stop!illegal!traffic!or!the!movement!of!kidnappers!and!jihadists,!and!
thus! to! deliver! on! their! promise! of! security.! The! problem! is! straightforward.! Present! state!
frontiers! in! and! around! the! Sahara! are! huge.! Malis! desert! frontier,! for! example,! runs! for!
nearly!4,000!kilometers!(with!Mauritania,!Algeria,!and!Niger).!The!other!Saharan!states!have!
scarcely! less.! As! these! are! not,! in! practice,! conventional! frontiers,! managing! them! in! a!
conventional!manner!has!so!far!proved!impossible.!

New! technologies! (such! as! satellite! systems! and! drones)! will! help,! but! the! most! important!
work!must!be!done!on!the!ground.!Titanic!defencessuch!as!the!sand!wall!constructed!by!
Morocco! in! the! Western! Sahara! to! keep! out! Polisario18are! not! feasible! in! most! of! the!
Sahara.! The! best! solution! to! this! problem! is! to! have! ordinary! people! live! and! work! in! the!
entire!Saharan!region!(not!just!in!towns),!and!particularly!the!areas!along!the!state!borders,!
so!there!are!no!empty!spaces!easily!penetrable!by!undesirable!players.!!

In! most! of! the! Sahara,! this! means! a! landscape! with! occasional! and! perhaps! ephemeral!
settlements,! supporting! dynamic! networks! of! mobile! and! modern! pastoral! users! of! the!
land! (de! Jode,! Helen,! 2009),! with! effective! communication! links! to! a! central! borderNforce!
command! that! has! a! rapid! reaction! capability,! set! back! from! the! frontier.! Saharan!
communities,!in!their!entirety,!could!become!responsible!agents!in!a!modern!experiment!on!
assisted!diffused!governance.!

Another! example! concerns! the! potential! role! of! pastoralists! in! the! reintroduction! and!
management!of!the!endemic!mammalian!fauna,!safeguarding!Saharan!prehistoric!rock!art,!
and!monitoring!desert!locusts.!Although!now!rare!in!the!wild,!and!perhaps!in!the!case!of!the!
addax,! extinct,! these! rare! large! mammals! survive! in! collections! around! the! world.! Clearly!
little!can!be!done!in!the!present!state!of!insecurity,!but!the!reintroduction!of!these!species!is!
a!major!conservation!goal!once!peace!is!restored,!and!planning!should! begin!immediately.!
Previous!reintroductions,!such!as!the!wild!horses!in!Mongolia!and!the!oryx!in!Oman,!would!
serve!as!a!guide.!The!most!effective!way!to!ensure!the!success!of!such!an!enterprise!would!
be!to!recruit!mobile!pastoralists!as!remunerated!game!rangers!who!have!the!responsibility!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
18
!The!wall,!which!runs!from!north!of!Tindouf!in!Algeria!to!Nouadhibou!on!the!Mauritanian!Atlantic!
coast,!is!some!800!kilometers!long!and!guarded!by!150,000!soldiers!(Boukhars,!2013).!Guarding!the!
Malian! desert! frontier! in! the! same! way! would! require! a! force! of! 750,000! soldiers.! The! present!
combined!forces!of!Mali!amount!to!only!7,000!soldiers!(Rogers,!2012).!!

! 25!
of! protecting! the! newly! installed! animals,! while! perhaps! also! acting! as! scouts! for! locust!
control.!Following!a!similar!approach,!a!cadre!of!pastoralists!could!be!recruited,!trained,!and!
employed!as!desert!rangers!who!are!responsible!for!protecting!rock!drawing!sites.!

Fragile(States,(Insecure(Livelihoods,(and(Conflict((
Like! everything! else! in! the! Sahara,! insecurity! reflects! the! rule! of! discontinuity,! and! the!
networks!of!connectivity!that!make!up!the!fabric!of!economic!and!political!life!in!the!region.!
A!static!perspective!on!insecurity!(for!example,!a!focus!on!fragile!states!as!isolated!drivers!
of!insecurity)!falls!short!of!capturing!its!key!relational!dimension:!that!is,!insecurity!is!not!a!
state!of!affairs!but!a!relationship!between!agencies.19!Similarly,!both!global!perspectives!and!
Islamic! fundamentalism! compete! for! singleNworld! narratives! fitting! every! culture! (Lecocq!
and!Schrijer,!2007),!including!narratives!of!conflict,!but!their!assumptions!of!uniformity!fall!
short!of!capturing!the!irreducibly!local!and!discontinuous!character!of!conflict!in!the!Sahara!
and!around!its!borders.20!Connectivity!may!involve!important!differences!and!relate!distant!
places!while!excluding!areas!close!by;!it!is!therefore!not!the!same!as!uniformity!or!continuity.!

Common! explanations! of! conflict! that! are! based! on! competition! for! resources! are! locked!
into! the! static! view! of! resources! as! things,! thus! failing! to! grasp! that! the! most! important!
livelihood!resource!in!contexts!dominated!by!discontinuity!is!optionality;!not!a!thing!but!a!
relationship;!it!can!be!lost!under!particular!circumstances,!but!is!always!renewable.!

In!the!Sahara!as!in!the!Sahel,!conflict!thrives!on!state!failure!(De!Haan!et!al.,!2014).!Political!
failure!creates!deeply!embedded!disputes!that!erupt!from!time!to!time!in!acute!conflict!and!
when!the!legitimacy!of!the!state!is!questioned.!It!creates!economic!failures!and!the!space!for!
the! criminal! economy! to! grow.! Present! conflicts! in! the! Sahara! are! largely! the! result! of! the!
failure! of! states! to! deal! adequately! with! the! incorporation! of! pastoral! and! other! marginal!
populations;! the! governance! vacuum! that! this! generates;! and! the! way! drug! smuggling,!
jihadism,! and! other! activities! have! been! used! to! create! an! agenda! to! take! attention! away!
from!these!issues.!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
19
!See! Wehrey! and! Boukhars! (2013):! Thus! far,! international! efforts! have! been! hindered! by! several!
factors.!First,!Western!governments!and!international!donors!have![]!largely!ignored!that!insecurity!
is!a!product!not!just!of!internal!factors!but!of!external!ones!as!well.!Second,!international!policy!has!
typically! overlooked! the! relationships! and! connections! between! conflicts! in! the! region.! And! third,!
competition!and!differing!perceptions!of!threats!among!neighbors!hinders!regional!cooperation!(pp.!!
194195).!Similarly,!see!Lecocq!(2013):!France!and!its!allies!should!realize!that!they!are!not!fighting!a!
limited! containment! operation! in! northern! Mali! against! foreign! fighters! that! can! be! clearly!
differentiated!from!local!Tuareg.!They!will!be!fighting!a!war!in!the!Sahara!against!coalitions!of!various!
Saharan!political!factions!and!economic!networks!of!national,!tribal,!economic!and!jihadiNideological!
nature!(p.!66).!
20
!For!example,!the!Tuareg!Ifoghas!in!Kidal,!Mali,!who!traditionally!legitimize!their!political!hegemony!
on!religious!grounds,!used!the!new!Tablighi!doctrine!arrived!with!Pakistani!preachers!as!an!asset!in!
their! struggle! to! consolidate! their! power.! On! the! other! hand,! in! the! neighboring! town! of! Menaka,!
where! local! political! hegemony! is! rather! rooted! in! secular! authority,! the! reception! of! the! Tablighi!
doctrine! was! much! cooler.! Embracing! Islamic! fundamentalism! did! not! prevent! the! Tuareg! of! Kidal!
from! staying! distant! from! the! GSPC! while! playing! a! key! role! in! resolving! the! hostage! crisis! of! 2003.!
GSPC!itself!changed!its!name!to!AQIM!and!started!to!wear!the!colors!of!the!global!jihad1against!the!
West!largely!in!order!serve!its!local!fight!against!the!Algerian!state!(Lecocq!and!Schrijer,!2007).!

! 26!
This! failure! has! five! interrelated! components:! a! political! failure;! an! economic! failure;! a!
failure! to! create! a! state! of! law! and! prevent! criminal! activities;! a! failure! to! control! violent!
extremist!Islamic!forces;!and!a!failure!to!learn.!

Political(failure((

Most! Saharan! states! have! been! unable! to! effectively! deal! with! the! legitimate! political!
grievances!of!minority!populations,!especially!mobile!communities.!Most!of!these!grievances!
concern! the! status! but! are! longNstanding,! dating! from! the! colonization! and! decolonization!
processes.!In!most!countries,!the!colonial!regime!treated!pastoralists!differently!from!other!
rural!populations.!The!specificity!of!their!political!and!economic!institutions!was!recognized,!
and!the!colonial!administration!attempted!to!come!to!terms!with!that;!for!example,!with!the!
creation! of! administrative! structures! based! on! tribe! or! clan! rather! than! territory.! At!
independence,! states! found! themselves! faced! with! the! task! of! incorporating! pastoral!
societies! into! a! single! nation.! Unsurprisingly,! this! proved! difficult.! Pastoralists! have! often!
resisted!this!process.!

Disputes!focused!especially!on!regime!legitimacy,!and!on!nationalist!and!irredentist!claims.!
The! best! known! case! is! the! Western! Sahara,! where! the! inhabitants! resisted! being! handed!
over! by! Spainthe! colonial! powerto! Morocco,! and! claimed! independence! under! the!
leadership!of!Polisario.21!

In!the!case!of!Mali,!Tuareg!political!claims!dating!back!to!independence!remain!unresolved.!
During!the!last!two!years!of!its!possession!of!Mali,!the!French!colonial!regime!explored!the!
possibility! of! creating! a! new! political! entity! that! encompassed! the! Tuareg! areas! of! Mali,!
Niger,!Algeria,!and!Libya.!This!did!not!come!to!fruition,!but!left!Malian!Tuaregs!confused!and!
uncertain!about!French!intentions!and!capabilities,!and!French!support!for!a!Tuareg!claim!to!
a! political! entity! of! their! own;! as! a! result! they! were! unwilling! to! accept! Malian! state!
authority.!!

The! Kel! Adrar! Tuareg! on! the! Sahara/Sahel! border! rebelled! at! independence! and! have!
rebelled!from!time!to!time!since,!supported!by!Tuareg!groups!from!different!confederations.!
They!have!pursued!a!set!of!political!demands!that!have!gradually!escalated!to!a!demand!for!
an!independent!state.!Similar!territorial!conflicts!have!taken!place!with!the!Toubou!in!Chad,!
and! to! a! lesser! extent! the! Tuareg! in! Niger.! More! generally,! official! attitudes! and! practical!
discrimination! against! pastoral! groups! in! the! Sahara! and! its! neighboring! stateswhich!
translate!into!ambitious!plans!to!convert!entire!livelihood!systems!into!something!different,!
perceived! as! more! modernhave! created! an! atmosphere! of! marginalization! and!
repression.22!Donors!have!not!paid!attention!to!this!problem,!as!though!it!was!trivial.!In!the!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
21
!Although!the!circumstances!appear!quite!similar!(especially!the!refusal!to!permit!the!exercise!of!the!
right! to! selfNdetermination),! there! are! important! differences! between! the! Tuareg! case! and! the!
Western! Sahara,! not! least! the! fact! that! in! the! Western! Sahara! case! the! Saharwi! were! not! offered!
decolonization!but!were!simply!ceded!to!Morocco!as!the!Spanish!withdrew.!
22
!For!example,!through!water!development!interventions!and!policies!of!service!provision!designed!
to!promote!sedentarization!in!areas!that!had!historically!been!used!for!wet!season!grazing.!In!Mali,!
since! colonial! times! political! inclusion! of! the! Tuareg! was! sought! by! the! creation! of! settlements! in!
the! north.! This! process! isolated! the! nomads! from! the! people! and! resources! of! the! Niger! valley,!

! 27!
long!run,!these!local!political!conflicts!are!more!important!and!more!deeply!rooted!than!the!
sometimes! exaggerated! incursions! by! shadowy! alNQaeda! personnel.! The! latter! conflict!
certainly!cannot!be!solved!before!the!former.!!

Economic(failure((

Some!Saharan!and!most!Sahelian!states!have!failed!to!provide!even!a!minimum!of!social!and!
economic! development.! They! have! not! just! tolerated,! but! also! administered,! famines! as! a!
means!of!weakening!marginal!populations;!been!party!to!the!growth!of!systemic!corruption!
in!public!affairs;!and!witnessed!a!continuous!increase!in!poverty!in!marginal!areas!(de!Waal,!
1989).! Development! activities! in! rural! areas! continued! to! operate! in! the! legacy! of! colonial!
policiescentered! on! ordering! interventions! that! failed! to! stabilize! the! production!
environment!but!consistently!eroded!the!sources!of!optionality!for!local!producerswhich!
finally! bankrupted! the! primary! local! livelihood! strategy:! pastoralism.! States! allowed! and!
even! encouraged! the! conversion! of! key! pastoral! resources! (such! as! dry! season! grazing!
reserves)! to! other! uses,! treating! pastoral! rangelands! as! a! spare! resource! for! rural!
development! policies! centered! on! different! production! systems.! They! replaced! hardNtoN
achieve,! delicate! networks! of! cooperation! and! complementarity! with! rigid! division! and!
competition.!Rather!than!safeguarding!pastoral!means!of!production!in!the!face!of!the!newly!
introduced!vulnerability!to!crises,!encouraging!connectivity!across!borders!with!neighboring!
states,! they! hardened! border! control! and! encouraged! the! liquidation! of! pastoral! means! of!
production!(for!example,!through!undiscerning!destocking!policies),!which!effectively!led!to!
a! transfer! of! assets! and! control! to! external! investors! (often! officers! in! the! administrations!
that!might!have!helped!prevent!the!economic!collapse).!!

As!pastoralism!receded,!optionality!for!Saharan!producers!decreased!even!further!and!their!
livelihoods! became! more! dependent! on! onceNcomplementary! forms! of! illegal! trade,!
especially! intraNSaharan! smuggling! of! basic! commodities! and! perhaps! the! transNSaharan!
smuggling! of! cigarettes! (the! same! could! not! be! said! for! drug! and! arms! trafficking! and!
kidnapping,!which!are!controlled!by!outsiders,!concentrated!in!a!few!hands,!and!represent!
little!benefit!for!the!local!economy).!

Failure(to(establish(the(rule(of(law(

The! loss! of! optionality! within! local! livelihood! systems! continues! to! favor! nonNSaharan!
playersfrom! corrupt! state! officers! who! thrive! on! the! smuggling! economy,! to! malevolent!
nonstate! actors! who! seize! the! support! of! citizens! who! have! long! lost! their! trust! in! the!
credibility!or!even!legitimacy!of!official!institutions!for!governance!and!development.23!The!
question!that!should!perhaps!be!asked!in!these!circumstances!is!not!so!much!Why!is!there!
conflict?!as!Why!is!there!not!more!conflict?!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
increased! dependence! on! new! outside! agents! (the! government! and! NGOs,! and! increased! social!
inequality,!as!only!people!from!influential!families!could!access!external!funding!(Grmont,!2012).!
23
!See! the! TransNSaharan! Counter! Terrorism! Partnership! (TSCTP):! According! to! the! 20131 Corruption1
Perception1Index,1which!ranks!177!countries!and!territories!based!on!how!corrupt!their!public!sector!
is! perceived! to! be,! TSCTP! countries! ranked! from! most! corrupt! to! least! corrupt! are! as! follows:! Chad!
(163),! Nigeria! (144),! Mali! (127),! Mauritania! (119),! Niger! (106),! Algeria! (94),! Morocco! (91),! Burkina!
Faso!(83),!Tunisia!(77),!and!Senegal!(77)!(Warner,!2014,!p.!20).!

! 28!
The! conflicts! triggered! by! economic! and! political! failures! unsurprisingly! encouraged! a!
criminal! culture! to! develop! in! the! Sahara! and! its! borders! (Wehrey! and! Boukhars,! 2013).!
Pastoralists! used! to! walk! their! sheep! across! the! Sahara! from! Mali! and! Niger! to! the! richer!
markets!in!Algeria.!Since!the!Algerian!dinars!were!of!little!use!in!West!Africa,!sellers!would!
come!back!with!consumption!items!subsidized!in!Algeria!and!therefore!of!good!value!in!the!
Sahel.!During!the!famines!of!the!1960s!and!1970s,!new!trade!channels!developed!with!Libya,!
from! where! young! Tuareg! migrants! returned! to! Mali! and! Niger! with! consumer! goods!
unobtainable!in!the!Sahel.!At!some!stage!the!transport!of!young!men!trying!to!get!to!Europe!
was!added!to!the!portfolio.!!

In! the! west,! similar! channels! were! growing! between! Mauritania! and! Morocco! and! Malian!
and! Arab! merchants! in! Timbuktu.! In! the! 1980s! and! early! 1990s,! small! arms! smuggling!
became!a!major!trade,!helped!by!the!huge!stock!of!weapons!in!Libya,!the!use!of!which!the!
Libyan!army!was!teaching!to!Tuareg!refugees.!Serious!drug!smuggling!developed!after!2005.!
This!trafficking!is!now!in!the!hands!of!a!coalition!of!Malian!Arab,!Mauritanian,!Sahrawi,!and!
Moroccan! nationals,! with! the! collusion! of! highly! placed! people! in! the! countries! concerned!
(FCO,!2013;!Lacher,!2013).!The!drug!dealers!themselves!established!their!own!militias,!and!
sometimes!what!appears!as!traditional!ethnic!conflict!may!conceal!a!very!modern!turf!war!
over!trafficking.!Mali!President!Amadou!Toumani!Tour!used!rival!criminal!organizations!to!
fight! some! of! his! battles! in! the! north,! playing! one! nomad! clan! off! against! another.! While!
enjoying!few!benefits!as!foot!soldiers,!Saharan!people!bear!the!heavy!social!consequences!
of!this!new!economic!dependency!on!illegal!activities.!

Even! if! modest,! as! they! often! are,! the! rewards! of! illegal! trade! are! hard! to! match! the! local!
opportunities! for! legal! work.! However,! over! a! lifetime,! the! economic! gains! of! moderately!
successful! pastoralism! could! easily! match,! and! likely! exceed,! those! of! foot! soldiers! in!
smuggling! or! trafficking.! Of! course,! this! advantage! is! lost! where! pastoral! systems! are!
undermined! and! threatened! to! the! point! that! young! generations! can! no! longer! see! a!
livelihood! in! such! economies.! Social! values! (identity,! dignity,! honor,! friendship,! or! a!
reputation! for! righteousness! and! wisdom)! are! also! not! to! be! discounted! in! the! Saharan!
context!visNNvis!monetary!rewards!(and!they!can!be!turned!into!economic!value!if!necessary,!
through!credit!or!gifts).!!Whether!these!values!play!in!favor!or!against!illegal!trade!depends!
on!the!alternative!options.!

Failure(to(control(extremist(forces(

Locally! rooted! violent! fundamentalism! in! Sahelian! West! Africa! and! the! Sahara! is! a! muchN
studied! phenomenon,! although! of! relatively! small! proportions.! The! Algerian! armed!
resistance! group,! the! Salafist! Group! for! Preaching! and! Combat! (GSPC)! was! active! in! the!
Sahara!from!the!early!2000s!(Laub!and!Masters,!2014),!but!by!2003!it!was!running!low!on!
money!and!fighters!(Boukhars,!2012,!p.!8).!In!2004!the!GSPC!allied!with!alNQaeda!and!began!
to!build!alliances!in!northern!Mali.!In!2007,!GSPC!changed!its!name!to!AQIM!(International!
Crisis! Group,! 2013).! The! initial! AQIM! approach! was! to! provide! the! jobs! and! services! the!
government!had!failed!to!provide.!In!the!extreme!north!of!Mali,!where!no!other!jobs!were!
available,!this!was!enough!to!buy!support,!especially!among!the!young.!AQIMs!speciality!is!
kidnapping! for! ransom.! AQIM! occasionally! makes! political! statements! on! video! or! the!

! 29!
Internet,!but!this!does!not!seem!to!have!been!a!main!focus!of!activity.!Securing!the!release!
of!imprisoned!AQIM!supporters!was!sometimes!a!part!of!the!negotiations.!The!income!from!
ransoms! during! the! 20082012! period! is! estimated! in! the! range! of! US$40! to! 65! million!
(Lacher,!2013).!

When!Gaddafi!fell,!the!return!of!armed!and!trained!Tuareg!soldiers!from!Libya,!united!with!
the!strategic!skills!and!connections!of!alNQaeda,!proved!to!be!a!powerful!combination.!The!
negotiations! carried! out! around! that! time! between! the! returned! Tuareg! and! the! Malian!
government! through! the! Programme! Spcial! pour! la! Paix,! la! Scurit! et! le! Dveloppement!
au! Nord! Mali! (PSPSD)! might! have! made! more! progress,! had! the! alNQaeda! forces! not! been!
urging!military!action!(Ag!Youssouf!et!al.,!2013).!

The!shortNlived,!opportunistic,!tactical!alliance!with!AQIM!during!the!last!Tuareg!uprising!in!
Mali! in! 2013! lent! this! subject! a! high! media! profile,! but! the! frequent! uprisings! during! the!
previous! fifty! years! were! obviously! not! rooted! in! an! alliance! with! AQIM! nor! relate! to!
jihadism.!Most!inhabitants!of!northern!Mali,!even!among!those!sensitive!to!fundamentalist!
views,! are! concerned! with! local! business! and! politics,! and! in! the! settlement! of! more! than!
five!decades!of!what!is!seen!as!the!oppressive!treatment!of!a!national!minority,!and!now!in!
illicit! trading! and! smuggling,! and! have! little! interest! in! the! arguments! of! international!
jihadism.!!

By!allowing!northern!Mali!to!develop!into!a!lawless!and!developmentNfree!entity,!the!Malian!
state!failed!in!its!most!fundamental!obligation:!to!protect!the!integrity!of!the!state!and!the!
safety! of! its! citizens.! Political! and! economic! failure! led! seamlessly! to! the! expansion! of!
extremist!Islamic!forces!under!pressure!at!its!base!in!Algeria.!The!promise!of!a!viable!Islamic!
framework! of! rules! and! support! made! this! prospect! attractive! to! many! northern! Malians!
abandoned!by!their!own!government.!Before!the!brief!war,!AQIM!had!earned!a!certain!level!
of! support! in! northern! Mali! by! providing! basic! services! to! local! people.! However! the!
experience! of! ordinary! Malians! under! the! short! period! of! AQIM! rule! in! Timbuktu,! when!
sharia!law!was!applied!in!a!brutally!literal!way,!disposed!most!people!against!a!repeat!of!the!
experience!(Ag!Youssouf!et!al.,!2013).!

Failure(to(learn(
In!pastoral!areas,!the!recent!reversal!in!theory!and!policy!(summarized!in!Box!1)!implies!that,!
overall,! past! interventions! were! illNconceived.! Today,! the! intended! and! unintended! effects!
are! a! constitutive! part! of! the! regions! current! problems.! This! fundamental! legacy! is! rarely!
recognized.!Recognizing!it!is!essential,!not!to!settle!for!a!deterministic!view!of!the!course!of!
history!but!precisely!for!doing!the!opposite,!in!order!to!generate!change.24!

Local! livelihood! strategies! are! inevitably! shaped! by! such! a! legacy! and! yetespecially!
pastoralismare! commonly! referred! to! as! traditional.! Official! narratives! frame!
development! interventions! as! external! solutions! to! local! problems,! overlooking! that! the!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
24
!On! the! importance! of! moving! away! from! a! path! dependency! understanding! of! history! in!
development,!see!Woolcock!(2010).!

! 30!
local! context! has! been! treated! with! such! solutions! for! generations,! and! therefore! the!
boundaries!between!endogenous!and!exogenous!are!blurred.!!

In!Mali!for!example,!Tuareg!groups!in!the!north!rebelled!almost!every!ten!years,!making!
roughly! the! same! demands! since! independence.! Among! other! oversights,! development!
interventions!promoted!the!conversion!of!rangeland!for!rice!production!as!a!longNterm!foodN
security! strategy,! yet! rice! had! never! been! the! staple! food! of! the! poor,! but! rather! a! luxury!
item! consumed! by! a! minority! of! relatively! wealthy! people! in! towns! (Roy,! 2010).! This!
occurred!on!the!back!of!a!long!history!of!exclusion.!Colonial!administrators!had!attempted!
to!defeat!untamable!Tuareg!groups!by!preventing!them!from!accessing!the!key!dry!season!
pastures! (burgu)! in! the! Niger! Inland! Delta! (Grmont,! 2012,! pp.! 135136;! Lecocq,! 2010).!
Access! was! finally! lost! in! the! 1970s! when! large! areas! of! rangeland! along! the! river! were!
turned!to!cultivation,!in!many!cases!as!part!of!the!work!of!the!Office!Riz!Mopti!(ORM).!In!the!
1980s,! the! Opration! de! Dveloppement! de! lElevage! dans! la! rgion! de! Mopti! (ODEM)!
turned! some! of! the! rice! plots! back! to! pasture,! but! this! change! was! never! accepted! by! the!
farmers;!in!the!end!both!farmers!and!pastoralists!felt!that!they!had!unfairly!lost!resources!to!
the!other!(Bonte,!1999;!Benjaminsen,!2008;!Benjaminsen!and!Ba,!2009).!At!the!end!of!the!
2000s,! while! the! international! community! was! praising! the! country! as! a! success! story! of!
democracy! and! development,25!seventyNfour! percent! of! Malian! citizens! agreed! with! the!
statement! that! the! governments! economic! policies! have! hurt! most! people! and! only!
benefited!a!few!(Afrobarometer,!2008,!quoted!in!Van!de!Walle,!2012,!p.!12).!!

Today,!while!the!specialist!literature!consistently!links!the!Malian!crisis!to!a!history!of!poor!
governance,! corruption,! and! the! responsibilities! of! international! aid,! global! narratives!
continue! to! frame! it! as! a! humanitarian! crisis! triggered! by! largely! ecological! factors,!
downplaying!the!role!of!governance!and!ignoring!development!history!altogether!(see!Box!
3).! This! can! only! exacerbate! local! frustration,! benefitting! those! players! who! thrive! on!
resentment! against! central! governments! as! agents! of! globalization.! As! recently! put! in! the!
2011!World1Development1Report,!signaling!change!to!groups!with!grievances!is!often!a!key!
early!priority!(quoted!in!Wehrey!and!Boukhars!2013,!p.!192).!

There!is!a!real!risk!of!doing!exactly!the!opposite.!While!historical!players!are!still!struggling!
to! recognize! their! own! reflection! in! todays! problems,! the! current! approach! of! entrusting!
Saharan! development! to! the! military! might! mean! that! the! lessonNlearning! clock! is! zeroed!
again.! The! present! emphasis! on! the! war! on! terrorism! in! West! Africa! and! the! Sahara! can!
easily!turn!into!a!rentNseeking!opportunity!(of!the!kind!seen!during!the!Cold!War)!from!the!
same!elites!that!have!contributed!to!create!the!present!context!(Ellis,!2004).!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
25
!See!Van!de!Walle!(2012):!The!World!Banks!2007!Country!Strategy!paper!argued![that]!There!is!a!
strong! tradition! of! consensus! in! Malian! politics! and! the! country! is! considered! one! of! the! most!
politically! and! socially! stable! countries! in! Africa.! ! The! 123Npage! report! does! not! include! the! word!
Tuareg![]!even!as!late!as!May!2012,!the!USAID!website!still!praised!the!country!as!one!of!the!most!
enlightened!democracies!in!Africa!(p.!2).!!

! 31!
 Box(3.(A(poorly(recognized(legacy(

According! to! Van! de! Walle! (2012),! The! government! and! the! donors! failed! to! reduce! the!
marginality! of! northern! populations! or! to! increase! the! capacity! of! the! Malian! state! to! bring! law!
and!order!as!well!as!development!to!the!northern!regions![]!foreign!aid!has!done!little!to!solve,!
and! arguably! has! sometimes! aggravated,! some! of! the! largest! existing! constraints! on! democratic!
consolidation!(p.!3).!!
According! to! Wehrey! and! Boukhars! (2013),! The! disintegration! of! Mali! []! is! attributed! to! the!
fragility!of!its!political!structure.!Pervasive!corruption!and!weak!governance!were!critical!sources!
of!popular!dissatisfaction,!leading!to!social!friction,!tension,!and!a!military!mutiny!that!escalated!
to!overthrow!the!government.!The!excesses,!corruption,!and!mismanagement!of!the!state!as!well!
as!the!political!and!military!authorities'!lack!of!control!laid!the!groundwork!for!the!state's!collapse!
[]! Building! the! security! capacity! of! such! a! government! only! compounds! state! fragility.!
International!stakeholders!were!all!too!eager!to!dispense!economic!and!military!aid!to!Mali!while!
ignoring!the!state's!links!to!criminal!activity.!In!fact,!the!dispensing!of!foreign!aid!coincided!with!a!
dramatic!increase!in!organized!criminal!activity!(p.!187).!

On!the!other!hand,!the!UN!explains!the!crisis!in!the!region!first!of!all!in!terms!of!natural!causes!
(harsh! environment,! demographic! growth)! visNNvis! traditional! livelihood! systems,! with! only! a!
passing! reference! to! governance! and! none! to! development! interventions.! The! Sahel! stretches!
from! Mauritania! to! Eritrea,! including! Mali,! Senegal,! Burkina! Faso,! Niger,! Chad,! Nigeria! and! the!
Sudan,!a!belt!dividing!the!Sahara!Desert!and!the!savannahs!to!the!south.!The!terrain!is!harsh!and!
difficult!to!control!and!human!development!in!the!region!is!among!the!lowest!in!the!world.!Over!
the! years,! recurring! food! and! nutritional! crises! caused! by! climate! change,! environmental!
degradation,! drought,! floods,! poorly! functioning! markets,! low! agricultural! productivity,! poverty,!
and!conflict!have!seriously!eroded!the!ability!of!households!to!withstand!shocks![]!The!regions!
population!of!150!million!is!expected!to!double!in!the!next!25!years!amid!real!concerns!about!the!
ability! of! traditional! agricultural! and! pastoral! livelihoods! to! sustain! it.! Weak! governance,!
corruption,! and! the! inability! to! provide! basic! services! have! fed! into! patterns! of! chronic! political!
instability.!Porous!borders!have!given!lease!to!transnational!crime!and!terrorism!(UN!Department!
of!Political!Affairs,!2014).!!

! 32!
Conclusions(and(Recommendations(
This! chapter! highlights! lessons! offered! by! our! use! of! the! lenses! of! connectivity! and!
antifragility.26!What! different! views! does! this! framework! allow,! and! how! useful! are! such!
views!from!a!field!operation!perspective!for!an!agency!such!as!the!World!Bank?!

Connectivity(and(antifragility(

The! rule! of! thumb! seems! to! be! that! Saharan! livelihoods! should! be! supported! with!
interventions! that! strengthen! connectivity! (that! is,! those! that! help! people! link! up)! and!
optionality! (those! that! do! not! close! down! options! or! possibly! offer! extra! options)! in! ways!
that!directly!relate!to!the!livelihoods!in!question.!Conversely,!Saharan!livelihoods!are!made!
more! fragile! by! interventions! that! weaken! connectivity! and! optionality! (for! example,!
interventions! that! introduce! clearNcut! divisions! between! production! strategies! or! scales! of!
operation,! replace! lowNrisk! distribution! with! highNrisk! concentrations,! or! that! ignore,!
downplay,! or! contrast! discontinuity,! whether! in! the! environment! or! embedded! in! the!
production!system).!!

Saharan! people! are! specialized! in! establishing! and! running! networks! of! connectivity! and!
keeping! optionality! strong.! Therefore,! in! principle,! interventions! simply! need! to! avoid!
introducing! fragility.! In! reality,! decades! of! unsuitable! interventions! have! resulted! in!
weakened,! distorted,! and! often! undesirable! configurations! of! connectivity! and! optionality.!
Simply! pursuing! stabilization! by! introducing! blocks! and! controls! (separating! livelihood!
strategies,!closing!down!producers!options)!would!mean!remaining!substantially!within!the!
same!approach!used!in!the!past.!That!such!an!approach,!which!we!now!know!was!wrong!in!
the!past,!might!give!better!results!today!seems!unproven!and!unlikely.!!

On!the!other!hand,!the!best!way!to!alter!present!undesirable!configurations!of!connectivity!
and! optionality! is! to! offer! (or! at! least! facilitate)! better! ones.! This! can! be! done! directly! by!
introducing! connectivity! and! optionality! where! they! cannot! be! found,! for! example! by!
securing! communications,! accessible! banking,! and! full! mobile! phone! and! broadband!
coverage! in! rural! areas; 27 !ensuring! formal! education! delivery; 28 !improving! water!
development! in! ways! that! encourage! mobility! and! complementarity! between! livelihood!
strategies!(Krtli!et!al.,!2013b);!or!subsidizing!pastoral!production!while!acknowledging!the!
fundamental! vocation! of! pastoralism! to! exploit! discontinuities. 29 !This! can! also! be!
accomplished!indirectly!by!lifting!wherever!possible!the!drivers!of!fragilization!introduced!in!
the! past,! for! example,! constraints! to! crossNborder! livestock! mobility,! the! conversion! of!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
26
!Readers! are! reminded! that! connectivity! describes! the! property! of! places! defined! by! their!
network! of! relations! (to! elsewhere),! more! than! by! their! physical! location;! and! antifragility! is! the!
capacity!of!certain!systems!to!gain!strength!from!every!stressor!that!is!below!the!breaking!point!(see!
Section! 1).! We! find! antifragility! to! be! more! closely! related! to! livelihood! in! the! SaharanSahel!
context!than!a!general!resilience!framework.!In!contexts!dominated!by!discontinuity,!and!therefore!
uncertainty,!optionality!can!compensate!for!the!lack!of!knowledge.!
27
!See! the! Dclaration! de! NDjamna! (2013):! Faciliter) lexploitation) des) moyens) modernes) de)
communication) (transport,) tlphonie,) internet)) et) daccs) aux) services) bancaires;) explorer) les)
possibilits)dune)couverture)rseau)sur)lensemble)des)territoires)des)Etats!(p.!6).!
28
!For!example,!Krtli!and!Dyer,!2009;!MDNKOAL,!2010;!Swift!et!al.,!2010.!!
29
!As!recently!explored,!for!example,!by!Serge!Aubague!in!Krtli!(2014,!p.!21).!

! 33!
communal! land! tenure! regimes! to! exclusive! individual! access! rights,! or! the! pressure! to!
replace!heterogeneous!herds!of!many!animals!of!relatively!little!value!(low!risk)!with!small!
homogeneous!herds!of!highNvalue!animals!(high!risk).!The!details!of!such!an!intervention
promoting!antifragility!and!connectivity!need!to!be!defined!on!a!caseNbyNcase!basis.!

Knowledge(gaps(

Saharan! pastoral! livelihoods! have! been! the! subject! of! little! research! since! the! 1950s! when!
major!studies!were!published,!although!the!context!has!changed!radically.!The!new!security!
situation!in!the!region!has!strong!implications!for!the!Sahara!and!North!Africa,!but!there!are!
substantial! gaps! in! our! knowledge.! Arising! from! the! discussion! in! this! paper,! the! following!
areas!are!in!need!of!urgent!research!and!debate:!

1. How1 Saharan1 pastoral1 livelihood1 systems1 function1 in1 an1 environment1 of1 conflict.1 Issues1
include:!!!!

(i) the! planning! implications! of! new! understandings! about! how! pastoral!
production! works,! and! especially! the! role! played! by! connectivity! and!
optionality! in! making! pastoral! livelihood! systems! more! secure!
(resilient/antifragile)!in!the!Sahara;!!
(ii) the! history! of! pastoral! development! and! its! consequences! on! the!
presenthow! can! these! lessons! be! mainstreamed! in! development!
policies?!
(iii) the!systemic!implications!of!changing!patterns!of!livestock!ownership!and!
management,! especially! of! the! partial! transfer! of! pastoral! means! of!
production!to!nonNpastoralists;!and!
(iv) effective! ways! of! increasing! connectivity! and! optionality! in! pastoral!
livelihoods,! starting! from! protecting! mobility! and! including! innovative!
technologies!and!marketing!strategies.!
!
2.1 Key1 unresolved1 political1 grievances1 and1 roots1 of1 conflict1 within1 and1 between1 states.1 The!
main! driver! of! conflict! in! the! Sahara! and! adjacent! areas! of! the! Sahel! is! the! continued!
existence!of!unsettled!political!claims!together!with!economic!and!political!marginalization.!
There! is! some! knowledge! about! how! to! do! this,! but! it! is! widely! scattered.! Help! bringing! it!
together!would!be!useful.!!
!
3.1 Potential1 institutional1 structures1 for1 devolved1 governance.! Devolution! seems! to! offer! an!
important!perspective!in!Saharan!political!organization,!especially!if!it!can!be!correlated!with!
more! appropriate! forms! of! administrative! organization,! pastoral! institutions,! or!
development! resources.! There! is! still! little! understanding! of! the! mechanisms! of! devolution!
as!different!from!decentralization.!
!
4.1Roles1for1government1in1pastoral1livelihood1systems1of1the1Sahara1and1neighboring1Sahel,1
especially! regarding! attention! to! service! delivery! and! the! possibility! of! payment! for!
environmental!and!socioeconomic!services.!
1

! 34!
5.1Potential1role1of1pastoralists1as1a1first1line1of1defense1of1state1borders1in1the1Sahara.!
!
6.1Development1of1Saharan1tourism,1once1peace1returns,1in1forms1that1maximize1benefits1to1
local1people.1

Recommendations(

The!World!Banks!paper!on!a!regional!approach!to!the!Sahara!and!the!Fragility,!Conflict!and!
Violence!Group!position!paper!on!pastoral!development!in!the!Sahel!contain!a!sensible!new!
approach! for! the! Bank! in! the! Sahel! (for! example,! providing! a! level! playing! field! for!
pastoralists! []! designing! development! interventions! according! to! their! needs,! rather! than!
to! the! needs! of! governments,! with! particular! focus! on! supporting! livestock! mobility,! both!
within! countries! and! crossNborder)! (De! Haan! et! al.,! 2014,! p.! 11).! The! following!
recommendations! identify! some! areas! in! which! such! an! approach! could! be! pursued! in! a!
context!of!connectivity!and!antifragility.!

1.(Resolve(outstanding(political(issues(

Of! the! five! types! of! failure! recognized! at! the! outset! of! this! paper,! the! most! urgent! in! its!
implications! for! the! future! of! states,! as! well! as! the! operations! of! the! World! Bank! and! the!
conclusions! for! its! lending,! is! the! political! one.! No! other! problem! will! be! solved! without!
resolving! the! political! issues! concerning! the! status! and! rights! of! minority! populations! in!
Saharan! countries.! The! worldwide! debate! over! the! devolution! of! political! and! economic!
power!has!not!yet!obtained!much!traction!in!Africa.!Yet!it!is!the!only!feasible!way!out!of!the!
current!political!impasse.!The!World!Bank!should!recognize!this!constraint!and!identify!ways!
to!resolve!it.!

2.(Explore(devolution(as(an(institutional(form(for(greater(autonomy(
In! large! parts! of! Africa,! devolution! is! seen! a! form! of! decentralization.! It! is! more! than! that.!
The!World!Bank!should!open!a!debate!about!levels!of!devolution!appropriate!to!Saharan!and!
Sahelian! conditions,! ranging! from! more! local! government! to! devomax,! which! would!
involve!granting!to!an!autonomous!political!entity!all!but!the!core!regalian!functions!of!the!
modern! state:! essentially! foreign! policy,! defense,! economic! policy,! and! central! banking.! In!
settling!longNstanding!political!grievances!on!both!sides,!there!may!be!a!role!for!customary!
dispute! settlement! procedures! that! involve! rituals.! Observing! these! is! likely! to! create! a!
stronger!and!more!lasting!peace.!!

3.(Make(real(progress(with(the(new(model(of(pastoral(development(
Prior! to! launching! its! military! campaign,! AQIM! won! support! in! northern! Mali! in! 2012! by!
providing! basic! services! that! the! government! of! Mali! had! failed! to! provide.! This! mistake!
must!not!be!repeated.!The!World!Bank!should!help!government!make!real!progress!with!the!
new!model!of!pastoral!development.!This!should!include:!

(i)! Encouraging! mobility,! including! crossNborder! movement! where! appropriate.!

Mobility! (as! a! way! of! exploiting! discontinuities)! is! now! recognized! as! an! essential!
technique! of! pastoral! land! use.! Mobility! is! also! one! of! the! most! important!

! 35!
 characteristics! of! the! connectivityNbased! antifragile! economies! that! should! be!
encouraged! in! the! Sahara.! The! World! Bank! should! argue! in! favor! of! appropriate!
forms!of!mobility!in!policy!debate!and!in!its!lending.!A!capacity!for!mobility!will!be!
one!of!the!most!important!characteristics!of!the!extended!form!of!pastoral!economy!
proposed!here.!

(ii)!Developing!and!securing!forms!of!tenure!that!effectively!serve!the!way!the!land!
is!used!by!production/livelihood!systems!operating!with!discontinuity!and!based!on!
the!logic!of!connectivity!and!optionality!(hence!where!flexibility!in!access!is!critical!to!
effective!use).!!

(iii)! Exploring! risk! management! measures! for! pastoral! livelihoods! that! respond! to!
need!but!do!not!interfere!with!the!strategies!of!connectivity!and!optionality!(that!is,!
those! that! are! based! on! the! principle! of! interfacing! and! using! discontinuity! rather!
than!on!the!principle!of!introducing!uniformity!and!stability).!

(iv)!Providing!services,!especially!education,!in!forms!that!are!both! suitable!for!the!
scattered! and! partly! mobile! population! of! the! Sahara! and! its! edges,! and! of! similar!
quality! and! status! of! conventional! delivery! systems! designed! for! sedentary!
population.!

Pastoral!development!goes!further!than!service!provision.!New!forms!of!livelihood!need!to!
be! researched! and! experimented.! In! that! respect,! the! proposals! made! earlier! about!
pastoralists!serving!as!rangers!or!wardens,!managing!the!reintroduction!of!the!Saharan!large!
fauna,! especially! addax,! oryx,! and! dama! gazelle;! acting! as! scouts! for! locust! control;! and!
acting!as!wardens!for!Saharan!rock!art!will!make!a!small!contribution!to!a!renascent!pastoral!
economy,! and! would! point! in! the! direction! that! Saharan! communities,! in! their! entirety,!
could!become!responsible!agents!in!a!modern!experiment!in!assisted!diffused!governance,!
resting!on!the!recapitalization!described!in!the!following!paragraph.!

Recapitalization!will!be!an!enormous!task,!both!in!areas!where!infrastructure!was!destroyed!
during! fighting! and! in! many! more! sites! where! no! infrastructure! has! ever! been! built.! This!
includes! roads,! education! facilities,! health! facilities,! water! infrastructure,! mobile! phone!
masts,! fiberNoptic! cables,! market! buildings,! and! more.! This! is! also! an! opportunity! to! make!
the! new! generation! of! infrastructures! more! pertinent! to! the! Saharan! operational! logic! of!
connectivity!and!antifragility!than!it!was!in!the!past.!

4.(Explore(new(ways(of(managing(international(frontiers(
Perhaps! the! most! significant! mediumNterm! innovation! is! to! define! how! the! frontiers! and!
hinterland!of!the!states!concerned!could!be!managed!in!ways!that!are!more!pertinent!to!the!
particularity!of!the!Sahara!and!its!existence!as!a!populated!place!in!its!own!right!(with!its!
own! cultural! identity,! and! where! connectivity! is! the! backbone! of! all! possible! forms! of!
livelihood).! This! needs! to! be! undertaken! as! soon! as! possible,! as! this! challenge,! or! more!
accurately,! its! neglect,! is! how! the! present! conflicts! started.! It! is! also! where! they! are! most!
likely!to!start!again!unless!new!arrangements!are!made.!The!inhabitants!of!the!Sahara!can!
be!interested!in!cooperating!for!the!successful!control!of!possible!activities!by!forces!hostile!

! 36!
to! peaceful! law! and! order,! especially! if! this! results! in! broadening! livelihood! choices.!
Proposals!about!this,!and!especially!about!new!forms!of!border!protection,!are!made!earlier!
in!this!report.!

5.(Update(information(systems(to(a(new(understanding(of(pastoralism(
Statistical! data! on! livestock! systems! in! and! around! the! Sahara! are! few! and! unreliable.! The!
lack!of!data!is!made!more!acute!by!the!fact!that!most!livelihood!strategies!are!part!of!the!
informal! economy! or! are! illegal.! The! recent! shift! in! the! scientific! understanding! of!
pastoralism!and!the!drylands!has!opened!a!new!frontier!of!development!opportunities,!but!
has!also!shown!how!most!of!the!data!that!had!historically!informed!pastoral!development!
are!inadequate!or!need!revision.!More!importantly,!the!analytic!tools!and!the!processes!of!
appraisal!have!not!yet!caught!up!with!the!theoretical!shift!in!pastoral!development.!

The!World!Bank!should!support!research!informed!by!the!new!understanding!of!pastoralism,!
not!simply!aimed!at!the!collection!of!more!data,!but!most!importantly!concerned!with!the!
challenge! of! developing! and! adapting! the! toolbox! for! generating! representative! data! in!
contexts!dominated!by!discontinuity.!

6.(Recognize(the(full(impact(of(past(interventions((
When!new!development!frameworks!appear,!there!is!a!tendency!to!abandon!previous!ones!
without! looking! back.! The! recent! reversal! in! theory! and! policy! regarding! drylands! and!
pastoral! development! implies! that,! overall,! past! interventions! in! the! SaharaSahel! region!
have! been! oriented! in1 the1 wrong1 directionwith! consequences! that! have! yet! to! be!
systematically!analyzed.!They!are!a!constitutive!part!of!current!problems!in!the!region,!and!
so!is!the!habit!of!overlooking!them.!Instead,!if!problems!have!to!be!effectively!understood!
and!isolated,!such!a!legacy!has!to!be!addressed.!

The!World!Bank!should!support!research!into!how!the!legacy!of!past!interventions,!intended!
and!unintended,!is!reflected!in!the!present!context!of!development!and!conflict,!and!make!
the!results!available!in!the!public!domain!and!especially!in!the!regions!concerned.!

7.(Prepare(for(tourism(
Tourism! is! a! potentially! important! economic! activity! once! the! Sahara! becomes! safe! again.!
Important! activities! could! include! inventorying! and! protecting! rock! drawings,! and! planning!
the!reintroduction!of!rare!mammalian!species.!Planning!for!this!can!begin!immediately.

! 37!
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