t-Distribution WM 5-21 Table 5.3. Distribution; Values of tg, Probability rarer TSTOTSTeEEEUORL are eeaney pray Tarn TTTRTSTRTTSTAT EIA Degrees of freedom, » a=0025 _a=001 __@=0.005 1 3078 «6314 12706. 3182163657 2 1886 2920 4.303 6.965 9925 3 1638 2.353 3.182 441 5841 4 1533 2.132 2776 3747 4.604 5 1476-2015 2571 3.365 4032 6 1.440 1.943 2447 3.143 3107 1415 1.895 2305 2.998 3499 1397 1.860 2306 2.896 3355 1383 1833 2.262 2821 3250 10 132 1812 2.228 2.764 3.169 " 1363 1.796 2.201 2718 3.106 R 1.356 1782 2.179 2681 3.095 B 1350 umn 2.160 2.650 3012 4 134s 761 2.145 24624 2977 15 134 1153 231 2.602 2947 16 1337 1.746 2.120 2583 292i "7 1333 1.740 2110 2.567 2.898 18 1.330 L734 2.101 2552 2878 9 1.328 ino 2.093 2539 2.861 20 1325 ins 2.086 2528 2.845 2 1323 ini 2.080 2518 2.831 2 1321 unt 2074 2508 2819 2B 1319 ina 2.069 2500 2807 4 1318 ut 2.064 2492 2797 8 1316 1.108 2.060 2.485 L187 26 1315 1.706 2.056 2479 2779 2 u3i4 1703 2.052 2473 2m 1313 1.701 2048, 2.467 2163 131 1.699 2045 2462 2.156 L282 1645 1960 2.326 25765-22 Ml Probability and Statistics Problems and Solutions Define the set of all outcon 's for the roll of two dice Solution We will write this in ordered pairs: R= (LD), (12)2.1), (19.G.D,2.2), (14)44,1),2,3),3,2) (1,5)5,1),(2,3),(3,2),3,3), (1,6)46,1)5.2)42,5)3,4)(4,3) (2,6),(6,2),(5,3),(3,5),(4,4), B.6)63),5,4)4.5), (4,6),(6,4),(5,5), (5.6).(6.5), (6,6)) SOT and Statistics 5-2. Draw a Venn diagram showing: he universal set of all people in the U.S. as U, All the males as Mf All the females as F All the students of both sexes as S All the students with grades above “B” as A Solution 5-3. What is the probability of drawing a pair when an ace has been drawn on the first card? (a) 13 (c) MSI (b) 126 () 4/51 Solution This isa conditional probability problem. Let B be “draw an ace," and let A be “draw a second P(B}= 113, PIA) = 3/5 ‘Then P{AIB) = P(A} x P(B|/P(B} = VSI. The answer is (c).Problems and Solutions Mm 5-23 $-4. An auto manufacturer has three plants (A, B, C). Four out of 500 cars from Plant A must be recalled, 10 out of 800 from Plant B, and 10 out of 1000 from Plant C. Now a cus- tomer purchases a car from a dealer who gets 30% of his stock from Plant A, 40% from Plant B, and 30% from Plant C, and the car is recalled. What is the probability it was manufactured in Plant A? (a) 0.0008 (c) 0.0125 (b) 0.01 (d) 0.2308 Solution This is a Bayes’ Theorem problem application since partitions are involved. The event E is a recall, while E, = Plant A, E, = Plant B, and E,= Plant C. The conditional probability of a recall from Plants E,, E, and E, is P(EIE,) = 41500 = 0.008 P(EIE,) = 10/800 = 0.0125 P(EIE,) = 10/1000 = 0.01 The probabilities that the dealer had a car from E, PUE,)=03, P(E) =04, PLEY Now applying Bayes’ formula gives the probability thatthe recall was built in Plant A (E,) as P(E} x P{ELE,} 1E, }« PELE, }+ PLE, i 030.008 0.3 0,008 + 0.4%0.0125+0.3%0.01 PLE; 1Recal} = 0.2308 The answer is (d). 5-5. ‘There are ten defectives per 1,000 items of a product in the long run, What is the probability that there is one and only one defective in a random lot of 100? (a) 99 x 0.01% (c) 0S (b) 0.01 (a) 0.99% Solution ‘The problem involves binomial probability. The probability that one item, selected at ran dom, is defe: 10 Diciaie= 0.01 Paceine= 7999 and the probability that one item is good (not defective) is Pood = ! ~ Paetecive = 0-99 The probability that exactly one defective will be found in a random sample of 100 items is given by the binomial b(1, 100, 0.01) in which Cy and StatisticsCc and Statistics 5-24 Ml Probability and Statistics — No detective au No. gm [7 paces f b(1, 100, 0.01 xo.0r}o98)" | Pras Cnn) (2) j “7 number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time without 1) (uni concer for the order of arrangement 100! (100, 3697 The answer is (d). }00,s0 (1, 100, 0.01) = 100(0.01) (0.99) = 0.99" 5-6. The probability that both stages of a 2-stage missile will function correctly is 0.95. The probability that the first stage will function correctly is 0.98. ‘What is the probability that the second stage will function correctly given that the first cone does? (a) 099 (©) 097 (b) 0.98 @) 095 Solution Here, P(S,) PISS, 98 and P(S, 0 5,) = 0.95 are given. Hence the conditional probability is P(5,15,)=°O8) _0 ‘The answer is (c). 5-7. _A standard deck of 52 playing cards is thoroughly shuffled. The probability that the first four cards dealt from the deck will be the four aces is closest to (a) 20x10" (©) 40x 104 (b) 8.0% 102 (@) 40x 10% Solution ‘The probability of drawing an ace on the first card is 4/52 ‘The probability that the second card is an ace is 3/51 The probability that the third card is an ace is 2/50, and probability for the fourth ace is 1/49. ‘The probability that the first four cards will all be aces is P = 4/52 + 3/51 + 2/50 + 1/49 = 0.000 003 7 = 3.7.x 10° The answer is (d). 5-8. In statistics, the standard deviation measures (a) standard distance (c) central tendency (b) anormal distance (4) dispersion The answer is (d).Problems and Solutions m 5-25 5-9. There are 3 bins containing integrated circuits. One bin has two premium ICs, one has two regular ICs, and one has one premium IC and one regular IC. An IC is picked at random. {tis found to be a premium IC, What is the probability that the remaining IC in that bin is also a premium IC? (a) 5 © U3 (b) 4 (a) 23 Solution Since the first IC that is picked isa premium IC, it was drawn from either Bin | or Bin 3. From the distribution of premium ICs, the probability that the premium IC came from Bin | is 2/3, Pee and from Bin 3 is 1/3. In Bin 1, the probability that the remaining IC is a premium IC is 1; in Bin 3, the prob- ability is 0. Thus the probability that the remaining IC is a premium IC is and Statistics 20 Lo) 50450 An alternate solution using Bayes’ Theorem for conditional probability P(Bin 11 Drew Premium) = Lit and Premium) __P(Premium | Bin 1)* P(Bin 1) P(Premium) Y P(Premium| Bin 1)+ P(Bin 1) { iy 3 iA s)+ots)ea) 3 ‘The answer is (d). 5-10. In.aclass of 60 student are at least 20 years old. How many females are twenty or older? 35 are male and 20 of these are less than twenty years old. In the entire class, (a) 5 fo) 15 (b) 10 (@ 20 Solution In the entire class there are 25 students who are aged 20 or older, of which 15 (35 ~ 20) are males; that leaves 10 “old” females. The answer is (b). S-I1. How many teams of four can be formed from 35 people? (a) about 25,000 (c) about 50,000 (b) about 2,000,000 () about 200,000 Solution ‘The answer is the binomial coefficient 35) _35034033+32 4) 43-261 350341164 = 52,360 ‘The answer is (c).5-26 Ml Probability and Statistics 12. A bin contains 50 bolts, ten of which are defective. If'a worker grabs five bolts from the bin in one grab, what is the probability that no more than two of the five are bad? (@) about 0.5 (c) about 0.90 (b) about 0.75 (d) about 0.95 Solution 50 (40 40) (10 The total number of choices of is | "— |. OF these, | | have no bad bolts, (©) x 5 (s 4 1 40) (10 have one bad bolt, ana 7 ) > he two bad bolts, CT Peer 40) (40/10) Ned 4039638037636 | 40439638437 9 40+39+38 1069 svl4 32 i adeRedugegat sit ne tage f — 958,008 + 913,900 +.44,600 _ 5 9.1, 2,118,760 ‘The answer is (d). 5:13, How many three-letter codes may be formed from the English alphabet if no repeti- tions are allowed? (a) 26° (c) 26+25¢24 (b) 26/3, (a) 2643 Solution ‘There are twenty-six choices for the first etter; 25 remain for the second, and 24 for the third. The answer is (c), 5-14. A widget has three parts, A, B,and C, with probabilities of 0,1, 0.2, and 0.25, respectively, \\a.pf being defective. What isthe probability of exactly one ofthese parts being defective? 3) (@) 0375 © 0.95 (b) 0.55 (a) 0.005 Solution ‘The probability that only A is defective is 0.1 x (10.2) x (10.25) = 0.06 that only B is defective is (1-0.1) (0.2) x 0.25) = 0.135 and that only C is defective is (10.1) x (1 -0.2) x (0.25)Problems and Solutions ml 5-27 Now add to find the final probability, which is 0.06 + 0.135 + 0.18 = 0.375 The answer is (a). 5. If th cess of 0.5, students work on a certain math problem, student A has a probability of suc- tudent B, 0.4, and student C, 0.3. If they work independently, what is the prob- ability that no one works the problem successfully” (a) 0.12 (©) 0.32 (b) 0.25, (@ 021 Solution Simply multiply the complementary probabilities: (1 ~0.5) x (1 ~ 0.4) x (1 - 0.3) = 0.21, The 5:16. A sample of 50 light bulbs is drawn from a large collection, in which each bulb is good with a probability of 0.9. What is the probability of having less than three bad ones in the fifty? Approximately (@ 01 (©) 03 (b) 02 (a) 04 Solution (50 Apply the binomial distribution. The probability of O bad is (0.9), of I bad is | | (0.1) \ 50 (0.9), and of 2 bad is ( a ) (0.1)? (0.9)**. Adding these, (0.9) ((0.97 + 5.0 (0.9) + 1225 (0.1)7] = 0.112. The answer is (a) Cy and Statistics5-28 Ml Probability and Statistics COE and Statistics