ALBERTA JULY 2017

EMBARGOED UNTIL:
5 AM - AUGUST 2, 2017
PRINT EXCLUSIVE:
POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Methodology
Mainstreet surveyed a random stratied sample of
2,100 Albertans from July 27-28, 2017 through
Chimera IVR. Landline and Cell lines were included.
Responses were weighted using demographic
information to targets based on the 2016 Census.
The margin of error for survey results is 2.14
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For
Edmonton specic results, the margin of error is
3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For
Calgary specic results, the margin of error is 3.7
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For Rest of
Alberta specic results, the margin of error is 3.7
percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Results may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
. In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
majority government in the 2015 federal election.
Contact Information
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Montral: David Valentin, Executive Vice
President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
UCP LEADERSHIP CANDIDATES EACH BRING THEIR OWN STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

August 2, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet poll tested the Leadership Candidates of the United
Conservative Party (UCP) to see how they would fare in a general election match-up. The Mainstreet poll
has a margin of error of 2.14%, 19 times out of 20.

We tested the three leadership candidates and one potential candidate, said Quito Maggi, President of
Mainstreet Research. With winning the 2019 election as the goal of the UCP, its important to note the
relative strengths and weaknesses of each candidate seeking the leadership.

Mainstreet rotated the names of Candidates for this question set.

Brian Jean leads the pack of hopefuls, although all the candidates we measured enjoyed majority support.
They include Brian Jean (59% to Rachel Notley 28%), Jason Kenney (56% to Rachel Notley 30%) and Doug
Schweitzer (52% to Rachel Notley 31%). Potential Candidate Derek Fildrebrandt comes in at 54% to the
NDPs 30%.

In most cases the number of undecided voters go down (Jean, Fildebrandt, Schweitzer) but with Jason
Kenney as leader the number of undecided voters actually goes up.

The shifts in demographic groups vary from insignicant to double digits. Its important to keep in mind
that as the race goes along perceptions of the candidates may shift for the better or for the worse. In other
words, theres plenty of time for these numbers to change, nished Maggi.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca
With Brian Jean as Leader
With Brian Jean as Leader - Decided & Leaning Voters

Brian Jean
Brian Jean gives the UCP the largest lead compared to
a generic ballot with interim leader Nathan Cooper.

We can see from the regional results that his candidacy

would see increases in Calgary and the Rest of Alberta.
In Edmonton, under Jean as leader, the NDP increase
their lead to 12 points (48% vs 36%).

The Jean eect is largely on the undecided vote, where

we see undecided reduced on average by a signicant
6% across Alberta. This includes a 7% drop in the
undecided in the Rest of Alberta and a 8% drop in the
undecided among those 35 to 50 years of age.

Jeans candidacy makes gains among almost all

demographic groups, but sees a slight dip in support
among the youngest voters (18-34).
With Brian Jean as Leader - All Voters
Eect of Brian Jean on Generic Ballot, All Voters
With Jason Kenney as Leader
With Jason Kenney as Leader - Decided & Leaning Voters

Jason Kenney
A Jason Kenney led UCP would be polarizing. His
candidacy would all but guarantee an NDP sweep in
the Edmonton area where the NDP would extend an 8
point lead to a 23 point lead with Jason Kenney as
leader. (53% vs 30%, comparing decided & leaning).

Despite this decrease in Edmonton, we see a Kenney

led UCP increase in Calgary where a 5% increase for
UCP could yield signicant gains in 2019.

Among all voters, Kenneys ballot eect reduces the

number of undecided voters in Calgary by 7
percentage points but increases the number of
undecided by 4 percentage points in the Rest of
Alberta (there is a slight uptick of undecided in
Edmonton as well).

Despite making signicant gains in Calgary, Kenney

sees support dip slightly among all other demographic
groups.
With Jason Kenney as Leader - All Voters
Eect of Jason Kenney on Generic Ballot, All Voters
With Doug Schweitzer as Leader
With Doug Schweitzer as Leader - Decided & Leaning Voters

Doug Schweitzer
While Schweitzer is relatively unknown, there is still
signicant movement on the generic ballot. In part, this
could be to the fact respondents know one thing about
Schweitzer: he is neither Brian Jean or Jason Kenney.

Schweitzer would see similar challenges in Edmonton

as leader of the UCP but not enjoy the same signicant
gains in Calgary as Jason Kenney.

His leadership has less eect on the undecided vote

than either Kenney or Jean, largely due to his lower
prole and name recognition.

As noted earlier, the eect of a leadership contest can

be both positive and negative and the frontrunners are
the most likely to see their favourability ratings drop.
This could be an opportunity for growth for other
candidates including Schweitzer.

In the meantime, Schweitzer see negative eects on

the generic ballot across nearly every demographic
group excluding the Rest of Alberta.
With Doug Schweitzer as Leader - All Voters
Eect of Doug Schweitzer on Generic Ballot, All Voters
With Derek Fildebrandt as Leader
With Derek Fildebrandt as Leader - Decided & Leaning Voters

Derek Fildebrandt
Fildebrandt has perhaps the most interesting impact
on the horserace when compared to a generic ballot.

His potential candidacy has an overall impact on

undecided equal to the Jean candidacy (6% decrease)
including a whopping 10% decrease among those 50 to
64 years of age.

Where Fildebrandt diers from the others is his impact

on the NDPs numbers, where we see consistent
increases in support compared to a generic NDP vs
UCP ballot.

This is most signicant among voters in Edmonton

(NDP +8), those 50 to 64 years of age (NDP +8),
Women (NDP +4) and voters in Calgary (NDP +4).

Among all voters, Fildebrandt makes gains among four

demographic groups: the Rest of Alberta, youth
(18-34), seniors (65+) and women.
With Derek Fildebrandt as Leader - All Voters
Eect of Derek Fildebrandt on Generic Ballot, All Voters