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Statistics and
Geostatistics
Role of statistics in engineering and geology
Performance
Np Fw
Time Time
Heterogeneity scales; SEM = scanning electron microscopy
(courtesy of Academic Press).
TABLE 1.1 SCALES OF RESERVOIR HETEROGENEITIES (from Ref. 1)
Geologic
Measurement Observations/ Flow Performance Flow Process
Type Level Scale Measurements Measurements Effect Effect
Micro Pore m Pore geometry Texture Displacement Complex EOR process
Grain size Mineralogy efficiency (trapped oil)
Mineralogy Fractures
Mega Gridblock foot Logs Boundaries of genetic Sweep efficiency Secondary recovery
RFTs units (bypassed oil) (waterflooding)
Single-well tracer Permeability zonation
Seismic within units
Giga Interwell mile Well test Sealing/ nonsealing Extraction efficiency Primary recovery
Surface seismic faults (untrapped oil)
Interwell tracer
tests
Comparison between well test and core data
(courtesy of Academic Press)
Density 15 5 30 245
Block 1
Block 2
Reservoir
models
Core plugs Whole core Well logs Well testing
Reservoir description
1. analysis
2. construction
Borehole geophysics Outcrop studies Surface seismics
3. history matching
4. calibration
5. future performance prediction
Geologists
Expert knowledge
(a) Series vs. (b) parallel modeling
4.000
2.800 60
2.200 40
1.600 20
1.000 0
1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992
4.000 120
80
2.800
60
2.200
40
1.600
20
1.000 0
1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992
Oil Oil
Produced Produced
Time Time
Pearmeability values as a function of distance
Measurement 1 Measurement 2
60
50
Permeability, md
40
30
20
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Sample Number
Data configuration of sampled data
1
X
2
X 1
0 X 0 X
3
2 3
X X
Normal Distribution
Objectives
Introduce the Normal Distribution
Properties of the Standard Normal
Distribution
Introduce the Central Limit Theorem
Use Normal Distribution in an inferential
fashion
Theoretical Distribution
Empirical distributions
based on data
Theoretical distribution
based on mathematics
data
Normal Distribution
Why are normal distributions so important?
Many dependent variables are commonly
assumed to be normally distributed in the
population
If a variable is approximately normally
distributed we can make inferences about
values of that variable
Example: Sampling distribution of the mean
Normal Distribution
Symmetrical, bell-shaped curve
Also known as Gaussian distribution
Point of inflection = 1 standard deviation
from mean
Mathematical formula
(X ) 2
1
f (X ) (e) 2 2
2
Since we know the shape of the curve, we can
calculate the area under the curve
The percentage of that area can be used to
determine the probability that a given value could
be pulled from a given distribution
The area under the curve tells us about the probability-
in other words we can obtain a p-value for our result
(data) by treating it as a normally distributed data set.
Key Areas under the Curve
X
z
Important z-score info
Z-score tells us how far above or below the mean
a value is in terms of standard deviations
It is a linear transformation of the original scores
Multiplication (or division) of and/or addition to (or
subtraction from) X by a constant
Relationship of the observations to each other remains
the same
Z = (X-)/
then
X = Z +
[equation of the general form Y = mX+c]
Probabilities and z scores: z
tables
Total area = 1
Only have a probability from width
For an infinite number of z scores each point
10
n 29, 3.1
Number
5
0
40 45 50
Figure N (20,4) of The Sandstone
Porosities
0.2
N (20,4)
0.1
0 X
12 16 20 24 28
Porosity (%)
y
0.4
The standardised
normal distribution
N( 0,1 ) and its N ( 0.1 )
0.3
properties
0.2
-1.96 -1.96
0.1
-2.576 Encloses 95% of area under curve -2.576
99 % Z
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
1 68.27%
2 95.45%
3 99.72%
Summaries 27 Januari 2015
Mahasiswa diharapkan memahami
prinsip statistik.
Variabel Random
Distribusi normal,
fungsi normal
Rata-rata, standar deviasi