Sheet1

Exp Smoothing with alpha = 0.1

Test Avg Score Forecast Err |Err| Err Square |Err|/Actual
1 72 77 -5 5 25 0.069444
2 82 76.5 5.5 5.5 30.25 0.067073
3 85 77.05 7.95 7.95 63.2025 0.093529
4 90 77.845 12.155 12.155 147.744 0.135056

Bias MAD MSE MAPE

5.15125 7.65125 66.54913 0.091276

Exp Smoothing with alpha = 0.2

Test Avg Score Forecast Err |Err| Err Square |Err|/Actual
1 72 77 -5 5 25 0.069444
2 82 76 6 6 36 0.073171
3 85 77.2 7.8 7.8 60.84 0.091765
4 90 78.76 11.24 11.24 126.3376 0.124889

Bias MAD MSE MAPE

5.01 7.51 62.0444 0.089817

Trend Projection with a = 68 b= 5.7

Test Avg Score Forecast Err |Err| Err Square |Err|/Actual
1 72 73.7 -1.7 1.7 2.89 0.023611
2 82 79.4 2.6 2.6 6.76 0.031707
3 85 85.1 -0.1 0.1 0.01 0.001176
4 90 90.8 -0.8 0.8 0.64 0.008889

Bias MAD MSE MAPE

0 1.3 2.575 0.016346

Control of Forecasting Process

t Act Data Forecast Error |Error| RSFE MAD(t) TS(t)

1 8 6 2 2 2 2 1
2 7 9 -2 2 0 2 0
3 10 6 4 4 4 2.666667 1.5
4 2 6 -4 4 0 3 0
5 12 8 4 4 4 3.2 1.25
6 11 7 4 4 8 3.333333 2.4

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