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AGeneralFCFFValuationModel
AnnstageModel
Thismodelisdesignedtovalueafirm,withchangingmargins,revenuegrowth,
andotherparameters.
Assumptions
1.Thefirmisexpectedtogrowatahighergrowthrateinthefirstperiod.
2.Thegrowthratewilldropattheendofthefirstperiodtothestablegrowthrate.
3.Thefreecashflowtoequityisthecorrectmeasureofexpectedcashflowstostockholders.
Theuserhastodefinethefollowinginputs:
1.Lengthofhighgrowthperiod
2.Expectedgrowthrateinearningsduringthehighgrowthperiod.
3.CapitalSpending,DepreciationandWorkingCapitalneedsduringthehighgrowthperiod.
4.Expectedgrowthrateinearningsduringthestablegrowthperiod.
5.Inputsforthecostofcapital.(Costofequity,Costofdebt,Weightsondebtandequity)
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General FCFF Discount Model
Inputstothemodel
CashandNonoperatingassets= $1,477.00
NOLcarriedforward= $2,075.00
WeightsonDebtandEquity
Ifno,doyouwanttousethebookvaluedebtratio? (YesorNo)
Ifno,enterthedebttocapitalratiotobeused= (inpercent)
Enterlengthofextraordinarygrowthperiod= 10 (inyears)
CostsofComponents
Doyouwanttoentercostofequitydirectly? No (YesorNo)
Ifyes,enterthecostofequity= (inpercent)
Ifno,entertheinputstothecostofequity
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General FCFF Discount Model
Betaofthestock= 2
EarningsInputs
Pleaseenteryearspecificinputsforeachofthefollowingvariables:
CompoundedAvg 8%
Ifyes,enterthebetaforstableperiod= 1.00
Doyouwanttochangethedebtratiointhestablegrowthperiod? No (YesorNo)
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General FCFF Discount Model
CapitalSpendingandDepreciationinStablegrowthperiod
Doyouwanttocomputethereinvestmentrateinstablegrowthfromfundamenta Yes (YesorNo)
Ifyes,enterthereturnoncapitalinstablegrowth= 9%
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General FCFF Discount Model
Outputfromtheprogram
CostofEquity= 13.40%
Equity/(Debt+Equity)= 60.51%
AftertaxCostofdebt= 5.79%
Debt/(Debt+Equity)= 39.49%
CostofCapital= 10.39%
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General FCFF Discount Model
1 2 3 4 5
Index 0 0 0 0 0
CostofCapitalComputation
TaxRate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
GrowthRateinStablePhase= 5.00%
FCFFinStablePhase= $996.92
CostofEquityinStablePhase= 9.40%
Equity/(Equity+Debt)= 60.51%
ATCostofDebtinStablePhase= 5.20%
Debt/(Equity+Debt)= 39.49%
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General FCFF Discount Model
CostofCapitalinStablePhase= 7.74%
Valueattheendofgrowthphase= $36,362.96
PresentValueofFCFFinhighgrowthphase= $2,446.42
PresentValueofTerminalValueofFirm= $13,470.92
Valueofthefirm= $15,917.34
+CashandMarketableSecurities= $1,477.00
MarketValueofDebt= $7,271.00
MarketValueofEquity= $10,123.34
ValueofOptionsOutstanding(Seeoptionworksheet)= $299.73
ValueofEquityinCommonStock= $9,823.61
ValueofEquityperShare= $11.08
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General FCFF Discount Model
el
ins,revenuegrowth,
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General FCFF Discount Model
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General FCFF Discount Model
cent:>100%)
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General FCFF Discount Model
6 7 8 9 10 TerminalYear
0 0 0 0 1
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Year Revenues EBITDA Depreciation EBIT NOLatbeginningofyear Taxes
1 $3,789 $0 $1,519 $1,519 $2,075 0
2 $4,926 $369 $1,671 $1,302 $3,594 $0
3 $6,157 $924 $1,838 $915 $4,896 $0
4 $7,389 $1,662 $2,022 $359 $5,810 $0
5 $8,127 $2,438 $1,011 $1,427 $6,170 $0
6 $8,940 $2,736 $505 $2,230 $4,742 $0
7 $9,834 $3,068 $531 $2,538 $2,512 $9
8 $10,621 $3,314 $557 $2,756 $0 $965
9 $11,258 $3,580 $585 $2,995 $0 $1,048
10 $11,821 $3,830 $614 $3,216 $0 $1,125
Term.Year $12,412 $4,096 $645 $3,451 $0 $1,208
EBIT(1t) Capital Expen Depreciation Change in worFCFF
$1,519 $3,431 $1,519 $0 -$3,431
$1,302 $1,716 $1,671 $34 -$1,380
$915 $858 $1,838 $37 $29
$359 $429 $2,022 $37 $1,197
$1,427 $450 $1,011 $22 $1,966
$2,230 $473 $505 $24 $2,238
$2,529 $497 $531 $27 $2,536
$1,792 $521 $557 $24 $1,804
$1,947 $547 $585 $19 $1,965
$2,090 $575 $614 $17 $2,113
$2,243 $1,874 $645 $18 $997
0.41666667
ValuingOptionsorWarrantswhenthereisdilution
Enterthecurrentstockprice= $12.57
Enterthestrikepriceontheoption= 13.375
Entertheexpirationoftheoption= 8.4
Enterthestandarddeviationinstockprices= 50.00% (volatility)
Entertheannualizeddividendyieldonstock= 0.00%
Enterthetreasurybondrate= 6.50%
Enterthenumberofwarrants(options)outstanding= 38
Enterthenumberofsharesoutstanding= 886.47
VALUINGWARRANTSWHENTHEREISDILUTION
StockPrice= 12.57 #Warrantsissued= 38
StrikePrice= 13.375 #Sharesoutstanding= 886
AdjustedS(DONOTENTER)= 12.3775336607 T.Bondrate= 6.50%
AdjustedK(DONOTENTER)= 13.375 Variance= 0.2500
Expiration(inyears)= 8.4 Annualizeddividendyield= 0.00%
Div.Adj.interestrate= 6.50%
d1= 1.0478616087
N(d1)= 0.8526488137
d2= 0.4012760659
N(d2)= 0.3441084415
Valueofthecall= $7.89
NumberofOptions= 38
ValueofOptions= $299.73