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Lab 2: Vehicle Arrival Models: Count
Submitted To:
Dr. Kalaga Ramchandra Rao
(Associate Professor)
Civil Engineering Department, IIT Delhi
Submitted By:
Mohit Kohli
2015CEP2096
M Tech Transportation Engineering, Semester-I (2016-2017)
LAB-2: Vehicle Arrival Models: Count
Objectives: To determine the probability of how many vehicles will arrive at a left turn pocket at a
signalized signalized intersection during peak periods.
Need for the Study: Modelling arrival of vehicle at section of road is an important step. The vehicle
arrival is a random process, thus this study estimates how vehicles arrive at a section. Vehicle arrival shall
be characterized statistically as several times vehicles comes together, while other time, they arrive
sparsely.
General Overview:
Poisson distribution:
It is used to model the random process, the number of vehicles arriving in a given time period. It can
represent several traffic flow situations where the flow exhibits random behavior. Let h1, h2, ... etc
indicate the headways, then as mentioned earlier, they take some real values. Hence, these headways or
inter arrival time can be modelled using some continuous distribution. Also, let t1, t2, t3 and t4 are four
equal time intervals, then the number of vehicles arrived in each of these interval is an integer value.
Normal Distribution:
Normal or Gaussian distribution is a very common continuous probability distribution. Normal
distributions are important in statistics and are often used in the civil engineering to represent real-
valued random variables whose distributions are not known. it states that averages of random
variables independently drawn from independent distributions converge in distribution to the normal, that
is, become normally distributed when the number of random variables is sufficiently large. The probability
density of the normal distribution is:
Where:
is mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode).
is standard deviation
is variance
Study Components:
Poisson distribution is used to determine the expected number of cars that arrive at a left turn pocket in
unit length of time. The spacing between the vehicles is the distance between the front bumper of one car
to the successive car. This spacing phenomenon is studies using Poisson distribution. Using the Chi-
Square test, the goodness of fit can be tested. The other two distributions generally used are normal
distribution and binomial distributions.
Result:
Arrival Pattern
No of Vehicles
Sl. No. Time
2 Wheeler Car Auto/LCV Bus HV Total
1 12:00:00 PM 7 7 4 0 0 18
2 12:01:00 PM 7 5 4 0 0 16
3 12:02:00 PM 3 6 2 0 0 11
4 12:03:00 PM 4 0 2 0 0 6
5 12:04:00 PM 0 0 1 0 0 1
6 12:05:00 PM 9 11 4 2 0 26
7 12:06:00 PM 1 6 3 0 0 10
8 12:07:00 PM 0 3 1 0 0 4
9 12:08:00 PM 6 7 1 0 0 14
10 12:09:00 PM 1 2 0 0 0 3
11 12:10:00 PM 7 2 3 2 0 14
12 12:11:00 PM 3 2 0 0 0 5
13 12:12:00 PM 3 0 0 0 0 3
14 12:13:00 PM 1 0 1 0 0 2
15 12:14:00 PM 1 4 0 0 0 5
16 12:15:00 PM 2 10 8 1 0 21
17 12:16:00 PM 5 8 1 1 0 15
18 12:17:00 PM 2 5 1 0 0 8
19 12:18:00 PM 1 0 0 0 0 1
20 12:19:00 PM 2 1 0 0 0 3
21 12:20:00 PM 7 13 1 0 0 21
22 12:21:00 PM 1 9 3 0 0 13
23 12:22:00 PM 5 3 2 0 0 10
24 12:23:00 PM 0 0 0 0 0 0
25 12:24:00 PM 0 2 1 0 0 3
26 12:25:00 PM 1 5 2 0 0 8
27 12:26:00 PM 1 5 1 0 0 7
28 12:27:00 PM 2 2 1 0 0 5
29 12:28:00 PM 6 3 0 0 0 9
30 12:29:00 PM 3 1 3 0 0 7
31 12:30:00 PM 2 5 2 0 0 9
32 12:31:00 PM 4 7 0 0 0 11
33 12:32:00 PM 3 4 2 0 0 9
34 12:33:00 PM 7 3 0 0 0 10
35 12:34:00 PM 5 2 1 0 0 8
36 12:35:00 PM 6 0 3 0 0 9
37 12:36:00 PM 8 2 0 0 0 10
38 12:37:00 PM 7 2 2 0 0 11
39 12:38:00 PM 3 4 2 0 0 9
40 12:39:00 PM 5 4 0 1 0 10
41 12:40:00 PM 0 1 4 0 0 5
42 12:41:00 PM 5 2 3 0 0 10
43 12:42:00 PM 6 3 4 0 0 13
44 12:43:00 PM 2 4 0 0 0 6
45 12:44:00 PM 0 3 2 0 0 5
46 12:45:00 PM 4 2 3 0 0 9
47 12:46:00 PM 6 3 0 0 0 9
48 12:47:00 PM 3 4 2 1 0 10
49 12:48:00 PM 7 2 0 0 0 9
50 12:49:00 PM 5 4 1 0 0 10
51 12:50:00 PM 2 3 4 0 0 9
52 12:51:00 PM 0 2 3 0 0 5
53 12:52:00 PM 6 3 3 0 0 12
54 12:53:00 PM 5 4 0 0 0 9
55 12:54:00 PM 3 1 4 2 0 10
56 12:55:00 PM 4 2 2 0 0 8
57 12:56:00 PM 5 3 0 0 0 8
58 12:57:00 PM 2 3 0 0 0 5
59 12:58:00 PM 4 2 4 0 0 10
60 12:59:00 PM 5 3 0 0 0 8
Total 215 209 101 10 0 535
AVG 8.916667
Poisson distribution:
Graph : Cumulative probability values of vehicle arrivals computed using Poisson distribution
Cumulative Chi-
Cumulative Normal Estimated
ARRIVAL Frequency Estimated Square
Frequency Frequency Frequency
Frequency Test
0 4 9 9 0.1586841 9.5210469 9.5210469 0.02851
4 8 17 26 0.4260583 25.563499 16.042452 0.05715
8 12 24 50 0.7346848 44.081085 18.517586 1.62315
12 16 6 56 0.9251379 55.508272 11.427187 2.57757
16 20 1 57 0.9879009 59.274055 3.765783 2.03133
20 24 2 59 0.9989205 59.935228 0.6611724 2.71103
24 28 1 60 0.999948 59.996878 0.06165 14.2822
Total 60 59.996878 23.311
1. Chi-square test fails for Poisson distribution and hence normal distribution is performed.
2. Null hypothesis is expected as the observed value is less than critical value from the 2 table.
Reference: